Hincal, Evren, Kaymakamzade, Bilgen, Suren, Fatma Nese, Gokbulut, Nezihal, Ashyralyev, Allaberen, Ashralyyev, Charyyar, Erdogan, Abdullah S., Lukashov, Alexey, and Sadybekov, Makhmud
Coronavirus disease 2019, also known as Covid-19, is an infectious disease that has infected more than nineteen million people all around the world. This virus is a member of coronavirus family but it is the most mortal one. It has named as 2019-nCoV by World Health Organization(WHO) after Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention(CDC) discovered a new coronavirus from a swab sample of a patient. As we know this pandemic started December 2019 in China, and it is still spreading and causing deaths all around the world. In this paper, we aimed to estimate the right size of epidemic. For that purpose, we chose 10 countries, which are affected by, and still fighting with this disease, to forecast the upcoming death rates by using the previous week deaths. These 10 countries are Argentina, Austria, Brazil, France, Iran, Italy, Sweden, Turkey, United Kingdom, and United States of America. We used the death data of WHO with assumption that data is accurate. For this estimation, firstly, we used the assumption that the reported death delay distributed according to a gamma distribution. Then, we used a binomial distribution for assumption of deaths. This binomial formula led us to find a posterior distribution which is an extension of Bayes' theorem for death ratio. Lastly, we compared our estimations with real data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]