1. NIC-NAMED TIGER INDUSTRIES IN EMERGING COUNTRIES.
- Author
-
Stavrevska, Vesna, Claessens, Evrard, and Fraiponts, Magalie
- Subjects
POLITICAL doctrines ,ECONOMIC policy ,EMERGING markets - Abstract
Since about half a century, tiger economies have generated a copious literature on the sources of their sustained growth. At regular times, the notion of a tiger economy has been copied to any growth process, even when the growth process softened in the aftermath of an initial boom. In the EU, these booms are well-known in the pre-access period of new members in the many enlargements since the initial EEC-6 club. There are, of course, many corollaries to the literature on the grail of development where real sources of development ask for a comprehensive format. For West-Balkan countries, the record is not simple. Some previous conferences contributions in Rijeka and Vitez focused on the low trade-intensity in the region. Often, gravity-models are used in order to obtain comparative settings related to distance and the size of the related economies. Depending on the actual way to implement the basic model, the conclusions are unanimous in pointing at a low trade-intensity. The regional reality supports this thesis. Though traffic keeps growing in ports, on highways and for Danube navigation, the current level remains below the peaks of the belle époque in the eighties. As opposed to the geographical gravity setting, this paper aims to introduce a kind of tiger notion in view of a traditional price equation, linking a particular market share of any (international) sales flow (q) in its relevant EU market (Q) to the relative competitive world price (PRC). This simple approach from managerial economics: q = f(p, p (competition), Q), can be simplified in a market-share setting: ln q/Q = a + b ln PRC, which allows for a wide range of applications from the finest detail of about 10,000 products in the CN nomenclature up to both industrial or country aggregates. This 'procedure' is applied to the wood & furniture industry in three Balkan countries, i.e. our guest country and two main neighbours. The results are quite promising. First, the rough wood and paper sections of the trade classification reveal a sharp growth towards the EU with marked upgrades for BIH, compared to Croatia and Serbia. Second, since overall production volume remains below the reforestation capacity, export growth-strategies remain valid, including a value-added capacity in the furniture business. Therefore, the NIC (New Industrialized Country) status of tiger countries can also be applied as a nickname to (NIC-named) sectors and industries. On top of the nice results for detailed products, the method also allows a wider macro-regional comparative analysis. On the one hand, the method invites to compare economic sectors such as rough wood (including sliced and peeled) and (half) finished products (e.g. furniture and their components). On the other hand, the traditional price equation may suggest aggregated research-based expansion tracks, either in the pure sense of macro-economic models or the more encyclopaedian setting of European and global business-environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2012