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If the number of tags was gotten in a RFID system, the tags collisions and throughput could be greatly improved. In order to allocate slot number optimally and maximize the efficiency, a novel tag number estimation method is proposed. Utilizing the slot information of the current frame gets the likelihood function of the tag quantity estimation; the proposed algorithm adopted the optimal tag quantity in order to make the average risk minimum. The simulation results show that the estimation error of the proposed method is quite low and the total slots of identifying all tags are less, which proves the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]