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The original contribution that this work offers is the understandings of demographic (un)sustainability of places and communities, and in particular, coastal communities with ties to marine related economies. This research considers population and social change in Scottish coastal communities using a relational approach and contributes to a growing field of coastal social research that seeks to inform marine planning policy. A relational approach was implemented by deploying a mixed-method research design in two phases. Phase one, applies a traditional population geography approach to develop a geodemographic profile, in order to characterise 149 coastal localities in Scotland. It builds on existing approaches by formulating a multi-level, dynamic typology. Phase two, focuses on coastal localities with economic ties to the marine industries. It employs a case study research design of three coastal localities (Banff, Cruden Bay and Peterhead) located on Scotland's North East coast. The case study design focussed around the qualitative methods of in-depth interviews and ethnography, in order to explore the mobility practices influencing demographic change in the Scottish coastal context. The findings demonstrate the significance of local context, economy, opportunity and coastal identity to the socio-demographic sustainability of Scottish coastal populations, as shaped through the processes of mobility and immobility. The approach has created a working definition of the social coast that is applicable across localities in Scotland, and can be deployed to provide a taxonomic analysis for use in policy and planning more widely. The research also addresses a gap in the coastal geography literature, which has previously focussed on economic or cultural identity of coastal places, by considering the implications of population change to the construction of coastal places. Finally, the thesis was responsive to the ways of knowing traditionally mobilised in population geography and was able to critically reflect on the limitations that underpin them within the research process. The relational, mixed methods approach taken enabled a greater understanding of the importance of context, and the internal relationship between the characteristics of place and a population's capacity to 'answer back'.

Immigration attitudes are shaped by complex interactions between contextual factors and individual differences. Whereas prior work has generally considered these interactions in isolation, I contend that we can gain a more nuanced understanding of the dynamics of immigration attitudes by assessing individual differences in sensitivity to simultaneous contextual changes. I develop a compound threat sensitivity framework, which proposes that the influence of population change on immigration attitudes is dependent on concurrent changes in economic wellbeing and crime, as well as individual differences associated with preferences for security/order over social freedom (e.g., authoritarianism; see Altemeyer, 1981; Stenner, 2005), and those associated with preferences for power/dominance over egalitarianism (e.g., social dominance orientation; see Pratto, Sidanius, Stallworth, & Malle, 1994). Correspondingly, the influence of economic conditions and crime on immigration attitudes depends on concurrent changes in the rate of immigration, as well as these individual differences. I tested these ideas in two studies. Study 1 assessed the contingent influence of objective country-level contextual factors, using data from the European Social Survey. Study 2 tested these ideas experimentally by manipulating information about concurrent changes in society. The results provide support for a compound threat sensitivity framework. These findings expand upon and qualify both the Dual Process Model of Prejudice (DPM; Duckitt & Sibley, 2009) and research on the influence of demographic change on political attitudes (e.g., Craig & Richeson, 2014). In addition to enhancing our theoretical understanding of “person X context” interactions in the domain of immigration, this work also has practical implications regarding messages that are likely to influence support for immigration.

This body of work consists of three research projects developed around a central theme – what might cause a person to leave the place where they live? As a native and resident of West Virginia, this question is not a purely academic one. My region has long struggled with how to retain our “best and brightest” in the face of challenging socio-economic conditions. Looking at the question differently, understanding what negative influences may exist to cause a person that might otherwise have remained in a place to leave, could provide large influences on policy and strategy for retention of residents in the area – and help to answer the “who” in the questions of economic and social redevelopment. My research utilizes econometric techniques to analyze questions related to demographic, natural resource, environmental, health, and regional economics. In this work, I have examined three different topics that may be related to the loss of regional populations, with a principal focus on rural and exurban counties in the United States (US), Appalachia, and the state of West Virginia (WV). My first essay focuses on examining whether there are population losses, specifically of working-aged adults who may be out-migrating, caused or influenced by drug overdose deaths, including opioid deaths, and the concurrent economic impacts. Specifically, does a higher overdose death rate lead to increased population loss via out-migration from a place, particularly in rural areas? The opioid epidemic has been extensively studied, and is known to be more prevalent in rural and lower income places, with particular concentrations in Appalachia. For example, West Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Kentucky were the top 4 states in the 2017 Centers for Disease Control (CDC) rankings for overdose death. If these higher death rates are causing outmigration, then the implied costs to those regions are higher than have been previously discussed, due to possible lost productivity and workforce losses. My results suggest that there is a strong, negative relationship between higher overdose death rates and future population change across the US. My final two essays examine what, if any, long term population change effects result from two separate industrial “disasters” that impacted water supplies. The second essay focuses on the Elk River Spill (also known as the Freedom Industries spill) that occurred on January 9, 2014. A storage tank, owned by Freedom Industries, ruptured, spilling a toxic chemical, 4-methylcyclohexanemethanol (MCHM), into the Elk River. This spill contaminated the potable water of 300,000 residents in nine counties in the Charleston, WV, area, and rendered the water unusable for any purpose to residents for several weeks. Analysis using a synthetic control approach (SCM) suggests that this spill did have long term negative population effects on the most heavily impacted counties of the spill, notably in Kanawha County, where Charleston, WV, is located. My final essay focuses on the impact on population change from the contamination of water by another chemical known as PFOA, which affected 10 counties in WV and Ohio along the Ohio River. While this analysis also utilizes a synthetic control approach, it also makes a contribution to the literature by helping advance the application of the SCM method to events that have an unclear “treatment” time. In this case, the timing is unclear due to the slow release of information. Its potential impact ranges from late 2004, when DuPont (the polluter) agreed to a $107.6 million legal settlement, to 2012 when an independent panel – the “C8 Science Panel” – release its findings, establishing a probable link to six disease categories, including cancer and thyroid disease. The extended time period over which information was released presented the largest challenge to our research, as there is a seven-year period of imperfect information about the impact of PFOA on residents of these counties. After isolating the timing, my results suggest that this spill also has had long term negative population effects in the impacted counties, with the cost of the loss of population greatly exceeding the cost of punitive fines and settlements in the aftermath of the incident.

The United States is one of the most mobile countries in the world. This paper examined a couple of questions not previously addressed in the literature, namely the research questions of how the distributional patterns and associated factors, especially locational characteristics could be different between two types of internal migrants: native-born and foreign-born. The central hypothesis that guided the analysis was that income is often the primary push factor and key contributor to population growth in a county for both types of internal migrants, as they would be more likely to live in a county with a good economic conditions and high job growth percentages. The results support and build on past research findings showing that overall county-level population trends are linked to county economic profiles for both groups, as migrants are more likely live the places with growth in job opportunities and high economic payoff. There are differences in terms the destination type between native-born and foreign-born internal migrants. Native-born migrants are more like to move to metro areas that are associated with job growth compared to the foreign-born internal migrants. The predict models showed that when the job opportunities are the same between metro and non-metro areas, native populations tend to move to metro areas, while job growth in rural counties may not be associated with growth in foreign-born population.

The California spotted owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis) is a focal management species in the Sierra Nevada because it uses late-seral forests for roosting and nesting. Thus, obtaining accurate and precise estimates of population trends is necessary to reliably assess the effects of management actions and habitat change on this species. To demonstrate how this objective can be better met, I used multiple data types from a long-term population study in the central Sierra Nevada, as opposed to the typical approach of using only mark-recapture data. First, I compared population trends estimated from occupancy and mark-recapture data. Occupancy surveys are more cost-effective than mark-recapture studies for monitoring territorial species over large spatial extents. I found that the realized change in territory occupancy from 1993-2010 (&deltat = 0.702, 95% CI 0.552-0.852) closely matched the realized population change estimated from mark-recapture data (&deltat = 0.725, 95% CI 0.445-1.004). This suggested that occupancy can provide reliable inferences on population trends, especially when funds preclude more intensive mark-recapture studies. I recognize, however, that mark-recapture studies provide important demographic information not provided by occupancy studies, which may allow the identification of life-history stages that are limiting a population. Second, I developed an integrated population model (IPM) to obtain estimates of population change for my study population from 1990-2012 because IPMs may improve the precision of parameter estimates. My IPM incorporated count, reproductive, and mark-recapture data. I observed a significant population decline, as evidenced by the geometric mean of the finite rate of population change (&lambdat = 0.969, 95% CRI 0.957-0.980) and the resulting realized population change (proportion of the initial population present in 2012; &delta2012 = 0.501, 95% CRI 0.383-0.641). My IPM provided more precise estimates of realized population change than either the occupancy or mark-recapture analyses, but I did not account for covariance among the demographic rates in my IPM, which may have resulted in "false" precision (i.e., underestimation of the true variance). If covariances are incorporated into the IPM, they have excellent potential as a tool for assessing the status of species of conservation or management concern. My results also suggested that continued monitoring of this population and reconsideration of the California spotted owl's status under the U. S. Endangered Species Act may be warranted.

This study developed a new typology to better understand patterns of change in rural counties. A cluster analysis was performed to group rural Texas counties by the population percent change and per capita personal income percent change that occurred between the years 2000 and 2007. A stable five-cluster solution was selected as the most appropriate. The clusters were described as Declining Population/Stable Economy, Growing Population/Growing Economy, Declining Population/Growing Economy, Growing Population/Stable Economy, and Declining Population/Declining Economy based on the means of the cluster variates. The clusters were then profiled to determine how they differed on a series of identified factors that have been found in the literature to affect population and economic growth in rural areas. Clusters were found to differ on net migration, foreign born migration, race/ethnicity of residents, percentage of commuters, economic dependence status, and number of two and four-year education institutions. Generated maps of the clusters revealed that bordering a neighboring state or country may play a role in a county’s population and economic growth; thus, it is recommended that additional attention needs to be given to understanding and facilitating cross border collaborations. Recommendations were also made for community development efforts to focus on improving educational access in rural counties and developing services to draw in foreign born immigrants.

Historically, the South Island pied oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus finschi, Martens 1897) (SIPO) has mainly bred on braided river terraces in the South Island. Since the 1950's, increasing numbers of SIPO have been observed foraging and nesting on surrounding farmland. The primary objective of this research was to determine which of these two habitats, farmland or river terrace, was the most productive area to nest in. The secondary objective was to establish reasons why SIPO breed on farmland. A number of breeding parameters compared between populations of SIPO nesting on a river terrace of the South Branch of the Ashburton River and SIPO nesting on surrounding farmland, mid-Canterbury during the 1999 and 2000 breeding seasons. SIPO breeding on farmland were significantly more productive than pairs breeding on river terraces. On the farmland habitat significantly more chicks were fledged per pair and per egg laid and chicks had a higher survival rate during the rearing period. Farmland SIPO also laid their first clutches significantly earlier than did river terrace SIPO, and these eggs were both larger in both size and volume. River terrace SIPO breeding density (pair.ha⁻¹), however, was significantly higher compared to farmland SIPO. Earlier clutch laying, larger clutches, larger egg volumes, high egg hatching rates and a high number of breeding pairs per hectare are all considered to be indicative of a high quality habitat. No difference was found between populations for egg survival rates or chicks fledged per hectare. Modelling predicted that sufficient chicks were being produced in each habitat for both populations to remain sustainable over the long term although the farmland population was increasing at a faster rate. The size of the river terrace breeding population fluctuated considerably over the study period. It appeared that high river flows at the start of the breeding season decreased the number of SIPO pairs that attempted to breed. By contrast, the farmland population remained relatively constant and did not seem to be influenced by any of the weather parameters that were analysed. The reason(s) why SIPO initially expanded their breeding range could not be determined from this study. Improvements in the quality of farmland habitats in the 1940's and 50's are likely to be the reason for subsequent expansions and also the dramatic increase in the population size of this species. In order to extend current understandings of SIPO breeding behaviour, further investigation is required.