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The overall research theme of this thesis is to analyse, from both a theoretical and an empirical perspective, how Operational Research modelling can be used in support of public sector performance measurement. The thesis includes four papers written by Van der Meer together with a variety of co-authors. Three of these papers discuss the application of a variety of OR models - in particular, Logistic Regression Analysis, Stochastic Frontier Analysis, Data Envelopment Analysis and Bayesian Belief Networks - relating to the performance of the Maritime and Coastguard Agency in coordinating Search And Rescue services around the UK coast. The fourth paper discusses the application of Discrete Event Simulation to support performance measurement in a Musculo-Skeletal Unit operating across two Glasgow hospitals that are both part of NHS Scotland. The thesis investigates five research questions, all of which can be directly traced back to the overall research theme. The evidence base for the investigation consists of the papers referred to above, in conjunction with a wide range of sources from the academic and professional literature. The conclusions may be briefly summarised as follows. First, there are five specific problems and challenges for performance measurement in public service organisations. Second, there are at least two categories of OR modelling approaches that can play an important role in support of public sector performance measurement; namely, models for measuring performance differentials and models for understanding the cause-and-effect relationships driving such performance differentials. Third, while there are advantages to a multimethodology approach to OR modelling, there are also a number of barriers (including paradigm incommensurability). Fourth, the adoption of Critical Realism as a philosophical basis for combining different OR models can resolve problems of paradigm incommensurability. Fifth, OR models that are founded on a realist ontology should be validated according to two specific groups of criteria.

How does the brain convert sensory information into abstract representations that can support complex behaviours? The rodent head-direction (HD) system, whose cell ensembles represent head direction in the horizontal plane, is a striking example of a “cognitive” representation without a direct sensory correlate. It can be updated by sensory inputs fromdifferentmodalities, yet persists in the absence of external input. Together with cells tuned for place, the HD system is thought to be fundamental for navigation and spatial information processing. However, relatively few studies have sought to characterise the connection between the HD system and spatial behaviour directly, and their overall outcome has been inconclusive. In the experiments that make up the first part of this thesis, we approach this issue by isolating the self-motion component of the HDsystem. We developed an (angular) path integration task in which we show that rats rely on their internal sense of direction to return to a trial-unique starting location, allowing us to investigate the contribution of the HD system to this behaviour without influences from uncontrolled external cues. Using this path integration task, we show that rats with bilateral lesions of the lateral mammillary nuclei (LMN) are significantly impaired compared to sham-operated controls. Lesions of the LMN, which contains HDcells, are known to abolish directional firing in downstream HD areas, suggesting that impairment on the task is due to loss of HD activity. We also recorded HD cell activity as rats are performing the path integration task, and found the HD representation to correlate with the rats’ choice of return journey. Thus, we provide both causal and correlational experimental evidence for a critical role of the HD system in path integration. For the second part of this thesis, we implemented a computational model of how the HD system is updated by head movements during path integration, providing a novel explanation for HD cells’ ability to anticipate the animal’s head direction. The model predicts that such anticipatory time intervals (ATIs) should depend on the frequency spectrum of the rats’ head movements. In direct comparison with experimental recording data, we show that the model can explain up to 80% of the experimentally observed variance, where none was explained by previous models. We also consider the effects of propagating the HD signal through multiple layers, identifying several potential sources of anticipation and lag. In summary, this thesis provides behavioural, lesion, and unit-recording evidence that during path integration, rats use a directional signal provided by the head direction system. The neural mechanisms responsible for the generation and maintenance of this signal are explored computationally. The finding that ATIs depend on the statistics of head movements has methodological implications and constrains models of the HD system.

Soil moisture available to crops is among the main constraints on crop production by smallholder farmers in semi-arid Zimbabwe. Other restrictions, such as limited use of fertilisers and herbicides, stem primarily from socio-economic rather than biophysical constraints. To improve smallholder farming, it is essential to promote soil and water conservation practices (SWC) that consider farmers' management constraints, such as limited availability of labour and Draught Animal Power (DAP).

The emergence of reaching and grasping behaviour in infants is an important occurrence in perceptuo-motor development. Traditionally, this behaviour has been described as a discrete achievement in development, emerging suddenly at about five months of age. This hypothesis was investigated in the first experiment of this thesis. It examined the role of spontaneous arm movements in young infants under six weeks of age for later reaching and grasping. Results showed that the infants moved the arm they were facing up and down in the same region despite added weights that pulled on the hand in the direction of the toes - but only if they could see the arm. The experiment suggests that when watching their arms moving young infants might be setting up a stable frame of reference for action. Until recently, reaching behaviour has mostly been used as an indicator behaviour for the infant's underlying perceptual abilities. As a result, the skill itself has not received the attention it deserves. The remaining three experiments of this thesis examined what information infants reaching for moving toys were using so as to catch successfully. Catching a moving toy requires the ability to predict a toy's future trajectory. In a cross-sectional experiment, reaching for a toy moving at different speeds was investigated in 11-month-old infants. The toy was occluded from view by a screen during the last part of its approach. The results showed that gaze arrived at the exit side of the screen and the hand started to move forward before the toy had disappeared behind the occluder, and that these actions were prospectively geared to certain times before the toy would reappear. In two longitudinal studies, the development of predictive reaching was investigated in healthy, full-term infants and in infants classified neurologically at risk of brain damage because of low birthweight and prematurity. At each infant's first reaching session, gaze anticipated the reappearance of the moving toy. However, onset of reaching, prospective control of gaze and hand, and timing strategy varied considerably in the premature group and an attempt was made to correlate a deficiency in the ability to extract predictive information for action with mild or moderate perceptuo-motor problems later on in life.

The purpose of this study is to understand the culture of one of the newest branches of traditional Yorùbá Ifá /Òrìṣà practice in the United States from practitioners born in the United States that were initiated in Nigeria, West Africa. The epistemology of the Ifá /Òrìṣà belief system in the United States has been based on the history and influence of Regla de Ocha or Santeria that developed out of Cuban innovation and practice. This is an ethnographic and auto-ethnographic study that pulls from participant observation, field notes, interviews, and photos as data. The central question of this dissertation is what are the challenges and opportunities for this branch of practitioners in the United States who were initiated in the Ifá /Òrìṣà practice in Nigeria? Some of the main findings indicate that the opportunities include: opening doors intellectually and spiritually about African philosophical thought and ethics were that: it instills a sense of spiritual discipline; it lays the foundation, giving confidence that one can achieve what they set their minds to; and, it offers spiritual technologies and systems that are liberating and relevant in the Unites States in terms of identity, direction, and purpose. Some of the challenges included: a rugged Nigerian experience, and cultural change; a transformative experience from the initiation rituals; understanding and learning the Yorùbá language; and, the contradiction of Africa being the idea of utopia. The challenges in the United States also included: understanding and learning the Yorùbá language; understanding the different systems of practice in the Ifá /Òrìṣà belief system; the role of women as Ifa priests; ecological concerns in disposing ritual sacrifices; accessibility to traditional (African) ritual items; issues of acceptance, inclusion, and exclusion on the basis of race, gender, and sexual identities from other systems of Ifá /Òrìṣà practice; and, developing new communities of practice base on the experiences of this newest branch of practitioners.This dissertation is available in open-access at OhioLink ETD Center, www.ohiolink.edu/etd and AURA:Antioch University Repository and Archive, http://aura.antioch.edu/

Survival outcomes for pancreatic cancer remain poor. Surgical resection with adjuvant therapy is the only potentially curative treatment, but for many people surgery is of limited benefit. Neoadjuvant therapy has emerged as an alternative treatment pathway however the evidence base surrounding the treatment of potentially resectable pancreatic cancer is highly heterogeneous and fraught with uncertainty and controversy. This research seeks to engage with conjunctive theorising by avoiding simplification and abstraction to draw on different kinds of data from multiple sources to move research towards a theory that can build a rich picture of pancreatic cancer management pathways as a complex system. The overall aim is to move research towards personalised realistic medicine by using personalised predictive modeling to facilitate better decision making to achieve the optimisation of outcomes. This research is theory driven and empirically focused from a complexity perspective. Combining operational and healthcare research methodology, and drawing on influences from complementary paradigms of critical realism and systems theory, then enhancing their impact by using Cilliers' complexity theory 'lean ontology', an open-world ontology is held and both epistemic reality and judgmental relativity are accepted. The use of imperfect data within statistical simulation models is explored to attempt to expand our capabilities for handling the emergent and uncertainty and to find other ways of relating to complexity within the field of pancreatic cancer research. Markov and discrete-event simulation modelling uncovered new insights and added a further dimension to the current debate by demonstrating that superior treatment pathway selection depended on individual patient and tumour factors. A Bayesian Belief Network was developed that modelled the dynamic nature of this complex system to make personalised prognostic predictions across competing treatments pathways throughout the patient journey to facilitate better shared clinical decision making with an accuracy exceeding existing predictive models.

Conflict with humans over livestock is a major threat to lion (Panthera leo) populations across their range in Africa. Lions kill livestock, a major source of livelihood for marginalised communities, and farmers kill lions in return. How to effectively mitigate this conflict remains a major conservation challenge till this day. In this thesis, I evaluate the effectiveness of the Long Shields Community Guardian programme (in short: Long Shields programme), a community-based, non-lethal human-lion conflict intervention that seeks to mitigate the impacts from lions by encouraging farmers to adopt behaviours that reduce the risk of livestock depredation. Specially, I examine (a) baseline attitudes towards lions and lion conservation; (b) attitudes towards lions before and after the implementation of the Long Shields programme; (c) trends in livestock losses to lions before and after the implementation of the Long Shields programme, and (d) barriers that prevented the adoption of the Long Shields programme. My results reveal that farmers' attitudes towards lions are strongly negative and seem to be influenced by perceived losses rather than the actual losses to lions. Attitudes varied based on the geographic location where the farmer lived as well as the farmer's ethnic group (Chapter 2). Subsequently, I detected a positive shift in attitudes of farmers that were part of the Long Shields programme (i.e., treatment group), including those that were part of the control group but exchanged information with their peers in the treatment group, than those of farmers in the control group (Chapter 3). My results also revealed that farmers that were part of the Long Shields programme experienced a significant reduction (up to 40%) in livestock loss to lions since the start of this programme in 2013, compared to the period 2008-2012 before the programme was initiated, while livestock losses increased for farmers that were not part of this programme. The number of lions killed annually due to retaliatory killing by farmers also declined by 41% since the implementation of the programme in 2013 (Chapter 4). My results also revealed that although the Long Shields programme was effective and well perceived by the majority of participants, a minority of farmers in the programme area continued to suffer higher livestock losses to lions than did others. Continuance of higher livestock losses to lions, despite all efforts from the programme personnel, seemed to be influenced by various barriers such as poor communication, negative attitudes towards the programme, and lack of trust in the programme itself, and in some cases, the programme personnel (Chapter 5). Although here we focus on human-lion conflict, our evaluation design and overall findings are applicable to other human-carnivore conflicts situations in other areas.

It is the objective of this thesis to investigate the feasibility of a multistoried structural concept in which the principal structural elements are hollow girders and chambered hollow columns. The scope will be directed towards the general conceptions, assumptions and design procedures for the system. Only such specific design of a particular example will be accomplished as is necessary to provide correlation and justification for the general assumptions. A detailed investigation and design is not intended since this thesis is oriented towards establishing a general concept not merely a particular example.

Diarrheal diseases remain one of the major global public health problems and a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in low- and middle-income countries like Bangladesh. Though the diseases are preventable and could be managed with low-cost interventions, the morbidity due to diarrheal diseases remains stable and has become the top causes of hospitalization of Bangladesh. Therefore, significant resources are consumed for treating patients with diarrhea. Among all of the diarrheal diseases, cholera and rotavirus are mainly responsible for severe diarrhea while endemic cholera is one of the largest burdens for Bangladesh. Vaccination is the most cost-effective investment for preventing the spread of vaccine-preventable diseases; Bangladesh is also committed to introduce cholera and rotavirus vaccination in the national Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) schedule. This thesis investigates the health and economic burden of diarrheal diseases in Bangladesh and intends to generate evidence for policymakers about future nationwide cholera and rotavirus vaccination programs which have been inadequately studied. To achieve this aim, I have conducted a series of empirical studies for assessing the prevalence, economic burden of diarrheal diseases, economics of cholera vaccination, demand for cholera vaccines and the cost-effectiveness of future childhood rotavirus vaccination. The thesis is based on seven papers while five of them are primary survey-data driven and two of them are based on secondary data sources and modeling. As cholera and rotavirus infections are life-threating conditions to high-risk people and children, the thesis sort out that such preventive programs could avert a substantial number of cases, deaths, and hospitalizations and appeared as a cost-effective investment. The thesis is also point out that there is a lack of good quality information on disease incidence, mortality, and the economic burden in the country. Therefore, further research is needed for proper understanding for priority setting in diarrhea control. The thesis also highlights the potential demand for cholera vaccines in the community; therefore, individuals may not wait for the public vaccination campaign if the vaccines are available in private market. I believe that my thesis is provides a better understanding of the economics of diarrheal diseases and will contribute to the decision-making process regarding the prevention of diarrheal infections by strengthening the case for future oral cholera and rotavirus vaccination program in Bangladesh for the benefit of society.