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1. SUIHTER: a new mathematical model for COVID-19. Application to the analysis of the second epidemic outbreak in Italy.

Author

Parolini, N., Dede', L., Antonietti, P. F., Ardenghi, G., Manzoni, A., Miglio, E., Pugliese, A., Verani, M., and Quarteroni, A.

Subjects
*MARKOV chain Monte Carlo, *COVID-19, *PANDEMICS, *COVID-19 pandemic, *MATHEMATICAL models, *EPIDEMICS, *EPIDEMIOLOGICAL models
Abstract

The COVID-19 epidemic is the latest in a long list of pandemics that have affected humankind in the last century. In this paper, we propose a novel mathematical epidemiological model named SUIHTER from the names of the seven compartments that it comprises: susceptible uninfected individuals (S), undetected (both asymptomatic and symptomatic) infected (U), isolated infected (I), hospitalized (H), threatened (T), extinct (E) and recovered (R). A suitable parameter calibration that is based on the combined use of the least-squares method and the Markov chain Monte Carlo method is proposed with the aim of reproducing the past history of the epidemic in Italy, which surfaced in late February and is still ongoing to date, and of validating SUIHTER in terms of its predicting capabilities. A distinctive feature of the new model is that it allows a one-to-one calibration strategy between the model compartments and the data that are made available daily by the Italian Civil Protection Department. The new model is then applied to the analysis of the Italian epidemic with emphasis on the second outbreak, which emerged in autumn 2020. In particular, we show that the epidemiological model SUIHTER can be suitably used in a predictive manner to perform scenario analysis at a national level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2021
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2. Modeling and prediction of COVID-19 pandemic using Gaussian mixture model.

Author

Singhal, Amit, Singh, Pushpendra, Lall, Brejesh, and Joshi, Shiv Dutt

Subjects
*COVID-19 pandemic, *SARS-CoV-2, *GAUSSIAN mixture models, *COVID-19, *DECOMPOSITION method, *PREDICTION models, *PANDEMICS
Abstract

• Two contrasting models are presented to understand and predict the spreading of COVID-19. • Estimation of turnaround (peak active cases) day is performed using a mathematical model for India, Italy and USA. • Trend and variability are extracted from the data for daily reported cases using DCT-based Fourier decomposition method. • Bi-modal Gaussian mixture model is fitted to the trend to predict the cases in near future. • End-dates for COVID-19 are predicted with 95% confidence interval in various parts of the world. COVID-19 is caused by a novel coronavirus and has played havoc on many countries across the globe. A majority of the world population is now living in a restricted environment for more than a month with minimal economic activities, to prevent exposure to this highly infectious disease. Medical professionals are going through a stressful period while trying to save the larger population. In this paper, we develop two different models to capture the trend of a number of cases and also predict the cases in the days to come, so that appropriate preparations can be made to fight this disease. The first one is a mathematical model accounting for various parameters relating to the spread of the virus, while the second one is a non-parametric model based on the Fourier decomposition method (FDM), fitted on the available data. The study is performed for various countries, but detailed results are provided for the India, Italy, and United States of America (USA). The turnaround dates for the trend of infected cases are estimated. The end-dates are also predicted and are found to agree well with a very popular study based on the classic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. Worldwide, the total number of expected cases and deaths are 12.7 × 106 and 5.27 × 105, respectively, predicted with data as of 06-06-2020 and 95% confidence intervals. The proposed study produces promising results with the potential to serve as a good complement to existing methods for continuous predictive monitoring of the COVID-19 pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2020
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