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In a recent paper by one of the authors and collaborators, motivated by the Olive Quick Decline Syndrome (OQDS) outbreak, which has been ongoing in Southern Italy since 2013, a simple epidemiological model describing this epidemic was presented. Beside the bacterium Xylella fastidiosa, the main players considered in the model are its insect vectors, Philaenus spumarius, and the host plants (olive trees and weeds) of the insects and of the bacterium. The model was based on a system of ordinary differential equations, the analysis of which provided interesting results about possible equilibria of the epidemic system and guidelines for its numerical simulations. Although the model presented there was mathematically rather simplified, its analysis has highlighted threshold parameters that could be the target of control strategies within an integrated pest management framework, not requiring the removal of the productive resource represented by the olive trees. Indeed, numerical simulations support the outcomes of the mathematical analysis, according to which the removal of a suitable amount of weed biomass (reservoir of Xylella fastidiosa) from olive orchards and surrounding areas resulted in the most efficient strategy to control the spread of the OQDS. In addition, as expected, the adoption of more resistant olive tree cultivars has been shown to be a good strategy, though less cost-effective, in controlling the pathogen. In this paper for a more realistic description and a clearer interpretation of the proposed control measures, a spatial structure of the epidemic system has been included, but, in order to keep mathematical technicalities to a minimum, only two players have been described in a dynamical way, trees and insects, while the weed biomass is taken to be a given quantity. The control measures have been introduced only on a subregion of the whole habitat, in order to contain costs of intervention. We show that such a practice can lead to the eradication of an epidemic outbreak. Numerical simulations confirm both the results of the previous paper and the theoretical results of the model with a spatial structure, though subject to regional control only. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Prediction and control of the socio-economic important Olive Quick Decline Syndrome (OQDS). • Mathematical/computational model based on ordinary differential equations. • Qualitative analysis of the mathematical model • Threshold agronomic parameters to tackle OQDS. • Identification of cost-effective and socially sustainable solutions for OQDS. In Southern Italy, since 2013, there has been an ongoing Olive Quick Decline Syndrome (OQDS) outbreak, due to the bacterium Xylella fastidiosa , which has caused a dramatic impact from both socio-economic and environmental points of view. The main players involved in OQDS are represented by the insect vector, Philaenus spumarius , its host plants (olive trees and weeds) and the bacterium, X. fastidiosa. Current agronomic practices are mainly based on uprooting the sick olive trees and their surrounding ones, with later installment of olive cultivars more resistant to the bacterium infection. Unfortunately, both of these practices are having an undesirable impact on the environment (most of these olive trees were monumental ones) and on the economy. Based on a mathematical model expressed in terms of a nontrivial system of ordinary differential equations, our analysis has provided a clear picture of all possible steady states (feasible equilibria) and their stability properties, corresponding to a variety of different parameter scenarios; all of this has been illustrated by a set of computational experiments. A significant original contribution of this paper is the proof of the global asymptotic stability of each of the feasible equilibria under its existence assumptions, a fact that excludes multiple equilibria under the given conditions. It has emerged that the removal of a suitable amount of weed biomass (host plants of the juvenile stages of the insect vector of X. fastidiosa) from olive orchards and surrounding areas leads to the eradication of the epidemic, without requiring neither the removal nor the substitution of the existing olive trees. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]