Search

This paper introduces for the first time the concept of Bayesian model averaging (BMA) with multiple prior structures, for rainfall‐runoff modeling applications. The original BMA model proposed by Raftery et al. (2005, https://doi.org.10.1175/MWR2906.1) assumes that the prior probability density function (pdf) is adequately described by a mixture of Gamma and Gaussian distributions. Here we discuss the advantages of using BMA with fixed and flexible prior distributions. Uniform, Binomial, Binomial‐Beta, Benchmark, and Global Empirical Bayes priors along with Informative Prior Inclusion and Combined Prior Probabilities were applied to calibrate daily streamflow records of a coastal plain watershed in the southeast United States. Various specifications for Zellner's g prior including Hyper, Fixed, and Empirical Bayes Local (EBL) g priors were also employed to account for the sensitivity of BMA and derive the conditional pdf of each constituent ensemble member. These priors were examined using the simulation results of conceptual and semidistributed rainfall‐runoff models. The hydrologic simulations were first coupled with a new sensitivity analysis model and a parameter uncertainty algorithm to assess the sensitivity and uncertainty associated with each model. BMA was then used to subsequently combine the simulations of the posterior pdf of each constituent hydrological model. Analysis suggests that a BMA based on combined fixed and flexible priors provides a coherent mechanism and promising results for calculating a weighted posterior probability compared to individual model calibration. Furthermore, the probability of Uniform and Informative Prior Inclusion priors received significantly lower predictive error, whereas more uncertainty resulted from a fixed g prior (i.e., EBL). Plain Language Summary: This study presents a two‐step procedure that includes model calibration of a range of hydrological models using DREAM (zs) algorithm, followed by ensemble prediction of streamflow using Bayesian model averaging (BMA) with various prior structures. The hydrological modeling simulations were first coupled with a new sensitivity analysis model and a parameter uncertainty algorithm to assess the sensitivity and uncertainty associated with each hydrologic model simulation. BMA was then used to subsequently combine the simulations on the most important parts of the posterior probabilities of each constituent hydrological model. Analysis suggests a BMA with fixed and flexible priors provides a coherent mechanism and promising results for calibrating a weighted posterior probability compared to individual model calibration. The hierarchy of prior distributions used in this study increased the flexibility of BMA fitting for daily streamflow simulation and reduced the dependence of posterior and predictive uncertainty (including model probabilities) on prior assumptions of hydrological modeling simulation. Key Points: Bayesian model averaging with fixed and flexible prior structures were applied to combine the posterior probability distribution of four hydrological modelsCustom prior inclusion and uniform prior induced a much sharper posterior medianPutting a prior on both θ and g makes the analysis naturally adaptive and avoids the information paradox [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mediation analysis allows the examination of effects of a third variable in the pathway between an exposure and an outcome. The general multiple mediation analysis method, proposed by Yu et al, improves traditional methods (eg, estimation of natural and controlled direct effects) to enable consideration of multiple mediators/confounders simultaneously and the use of linear and nonlinear predictive models for estimating mediation/confounding effects. In this paper, we extend the method for time-to-event outcomes and apply the method to explore the racial disparity in breast cancer survivals. Breast cancer is the most common cancer and the second leading cause of cancer death among women of all races. Despite improvement of survival rates of breast cancer in the US, a significant difference between white and black women remains. Previous studies have found that more advanced and aggressive tumors and less than optimal treatment may explain the lower survival rates for black women as compared to white women. Due to limitations of current analytic methods and the lack of comprehensive data sets, researchers have not been able to differentiate the relative effect each factor contributes to the overall racial disparity. We use the CDC-funded Patterns of Care study to examine the determinants of racial disparities in breast cancer survival using a novel multiple mediation analysis. Using the proposed method, we applied the Cox hazard model and multiple additive regression trees as predictive models and found that all racial disparity in survival among Louisiana breast cancer patients were explained by factors included in the study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drug-drug interactions (DDIs) are a common cause of adverse drug events (ADEs). The electronic medical record (EMR) database and the FDA's adverse event reporting system (FAERS) database are the major data sources for mining and testing the ADE associated DDI signals. Most DDI data mining methods focus on pair-wise drug interactions, and methods to detect high-dimensional DDIs in medical databases are lacking. In this paper, we propose 2 novel mixture drug-count response models for detecting high-dimensional drug combinations that induce myopathy. The "count" indicates the number of drugs in a combination. One model is called fixed probability mixture drug-count response model with a maximum risk threshold (FMDRM-MRT). The other model is called count-dependent probability mixture drug-count response model with a maximum risk threshold (CMDRM-MRT), in which the mixture probability is count dependent. Compared with the previous mixture drug-count response model (MDRM) developed by our group, these 2 new models show a better likelihood in detecting high-dimensional drug combinatory effects on myopathy. CMDRM-MRT identified and validated (54; 374; 637; 442; 131) 2-way to 6-way drug interactions, respectively, which induce myopathy in both EMR and FAERS databases. We further demonstrate FAERS data capture much higher maximum myopathy risk than EMR data do. The consistency of 2 mixture models' parameters and local false discovery rate estimates are evaluated through statistical simulation studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Some complex geographic events are associated with multiple point locations. Such events include, but are not limited to, those describing linkages between and among places. The term multi-location event is used in the paper to refer to these geographical phenomena. Through formalization of the multi-location event problem, this paper situates the analysis of multi-location events within the broad context of point pattern analysis techniques. Two alternative approaches (vector autocorrelation analysis and cluster correspondence analysis) to the spatial dependence of paired-location events (i.e., two-location events) are explored, with a discussion of their appropriateness to general multi-location event problems. The research proposes a framework of cluster correspondence analysis for the detection of local non-stationarities in the spatial process generating multi-location events. A new algorithm for local analysis of cluster correspondence is proposed. It is implemented on a large-scale dataset of vehicle theft and recovery location pairs in Buffalo, New York. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Therapy for polymyalgia rheumatica (PMR) varies widely in clinical practice as international recommendations for PMR treatment are not currently available. In this paper, we report the 2015 European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR)/American College of Rheumatology (ACR) recommendations for the management of PMR. We used the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) methodology as a framework for the project. Accordingly, the direction and strength of the recommendations are based on the quality of evidence, the balance between desirable and undesirable effects, patients' and clinicians' values and preferences, and resource use. Eight overarching principles and nine specific recommendations were developed covering several aspects of PMR, including basic and follow-up investigations of patients under treatment, risk factor assessment, medical access for patients and specialist referral, treatment strategies such as initial glucocorticoid (GC) doses and subsequent tapering regimens, use of intramuscular GCs and disease modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (DMARDs), as well as the roles of non-steroidal anti-rheumatic drugs and non-pharmacological interventions. These recommendations will inform primary, secondary and tertiary care physicians about an international consensus on the management of PMR. These recommendations should serve to inform clinicians about best practices in the care of patients with PMR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Technologies that deploy algorithmic calculation are becoming ubiquitous to the homeland securitization of the war on terror. From the surveillance networks of the city subway to the biometric identifiers of new forms of border control, the possibility to identify “association rules” between people, places, objects and events has brought the logic of pre-emption into the most mundane and prosaic spaces. Yet, it is not the case that the turn to algorithmic calculation simply militarizes society, nor even that we are witnessing strictly a commercialization of security. Rather, algorithmic war is one form of Foucault's sense of a “continuation of war by other means”, where the war-like architectures of self/other, here/there, safe/risky, normal/suspicious are played out in the politics of daily life. This paper explores the situated interplay of algorithmic practices across commercial, security, and military spheres, revealing the violent geographies that are concealed in the glossy techno-science of algorithmic calculation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, I propose to set out a legit spatial association model for binary spatial events and develop a scan algorithm to search for spatial associations. I extend the traditional legit model with a spatial autocorrelated component so that the model includes not only known risk factors, but also spatially autocorrelated regions as control or explanatory factors. The case study of West Virginia lung cancer shows that the model effectively captures cool and hot spots in lung cancer mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]