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BACKGROUND & AIMS: Histologic analysis of liver biopsy specimens allows for grading and staging of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We performed a longitudinal study to investigate the long-term prognostic relevance of histologic features for patients with NAFLD.METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of 619 patients diagnosed with NAFLD from 1975 through 2005 at medical centers in the United States, Europe, and Thailand. Patients underwent laboratory and biopsy analyses, and were examined every 3-12 months after their diagnosis. Outcomes analyzed were overall mortality, liver transplantation, and liver-related events. Cumulative outcomes were compared by log-rank analysis. Cox proportional-hazards regression was used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs). Time at risk was determined from the date of liver biopsy to the date of outcome or last follow-up examination.RESULTS: Over a median follow-up period of 12.6 years (range, 0.3-35.1 y), 193 of the patients (33.2%) died or underwent liver transplantation. Features of liver biopsies significantly associated with death or liver transplantation included fibrosis stage 1 (HR, 1.88; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.28-2.77), stage 2 (HR, 2.89; 95% CI, 1.93-4.33), stage 3 (HR, 3.76; 95% CI, 2.40-5.89), and stage 4 (HR, 10.9; 95% CI, 6.06-19.62) compared with stage 0, as well as age (HR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.05-1.08), diabetes (HR, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.13-2.30), current smoking (HR, 2.62; 95% CI, 1.67-4.10), and statin use (HR, 0.32; 95% CI, 0.14-0.70). Twenty-six patients (4.2%) developed liver-related events; fibrosis stage 3 (HR, 14.2; 95% CI, 3.38-59.68) and stage 4 (HR, 51.5; 95% CI, 9.87-269.2) compared with stage 0, were associated significantly with the events. Patients with fibrosis, regardless of steatohepatitis or NAFLD activity score, had shorter survival times than patients without fibrosis.CONCLUSIONS: In a longitudinal study of patients with NAFLD, fibrosis stage, but no

Patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and advanced liver fibrosis are at the highest risk for progressing to end-stage liver disease. We constructed and validated a scoring system consisting of routinely measured and readily available clinical and laboratory data to separate NAFLD patients with and without advanced fibrosis. A total of 733 patients with NAFLD confirmed by liver biopsy were divided into 2 groups to construct (n = 480) and validate (n = 253) a scoring system. Routine demographic, clinical, and laboratory variables were analyzed by multivariate modeling to predict presence or absence of advanced fibrosis. Age, hyperglycemia, body mass index, platelet count, albumin, and AST/ALT ratio were independent indicators of advanced liver fibrosis. A scoring system with these 6 variables had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.88 and 0.82 in the estimation and validation groups, respectively. By applying the low cutoff score (-1.455), advanced fibrosis could be excluded with high accuracy (negative predictive value of 93% and 88% in the estimation and validation groups, respectively). By applying the high cutoff score (0.676), the presence of advanced fibrosis could be diagnosed with high accuracy (positive predictive value of 90% and 82% in the estimation and validation groups, respectively). By applying this model, a liver biopsy would have been avoided in 549 (75%) of the 733 patients, with correct prediction in 496 (90%). Conclusion: a simple scoring system accurately separates patients with NAFLD with and without advanced fibrosis, rendering liver biopsy for identification of advanced fibrosis unnecessary in a substantial proportion of patients.

Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) is a chronic cholestatic liver disease characterized by the immunological destruction of intralobular bile ducts and serum anti-mitochondrial antibodies (AMA). Based upon previous work of oral tolerance and autoimmunity, we hypothesized that feeding the mitochondrial autoantigens of PBC would alter the clinical course and the level of antimitochondrial antibodies. The bovine pyruvate dehydrogenase complex (PDC) was purified and 5 mg fed in gelatin capsules to 6 patients with early stage PBC for 6 months. Antimitochondrial antibodies and liver biochemistries were measured at every 3 months for 12 months. The clinical trial was completed for all patients except for 1 who showed deterioration of pre-existing skin rash during treatment, which disappeared within 2 weeks after treatment was discontinued. However, after 1 year, neither the titers of AMAs nor liver biochemistries were significantly changed by this treatment. This is the first trial to test the efficacy of oral tolerance induction in PBC. However, the data, which limited in scope, did not demonstrate efficacy and further highlights the difficulties in showing continuing evidence of tolerance induction in autoimmunity.

Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) is a chronic cholestatic liver disease characterized by the immunological destruction of intralobular bile ducts and serum anti-mitochondrial antibodies (AMA). Based upon previous work of oral tolerance and autoimmunity, we hypothesized that feeding the mitochondrial autoantigens of PBC would alter the clinical course and the level of antimitochondrial antibodies. The bovine pyruvate dehydrogenase complex (PDC) was purified and 5 mg fed in gelatin capsules to 6 patients with early stage PBC for 6 months. Antimitochondrial antibodies and liver biochemistries were measured at every 3 months for 12 months. The clinical trial was completed for all patients except for 1 who showed deterioration of pre-existing skin rash during treatment, which disappeared within 2 weeks after treatment was discontinued. However, after 1 year, neither the titers of AMAs nor liver biochemistries were significantly changed by this treatment. This is the first trial to test the efficacy of oral tolerance induction in PBC. However, the data, which limited in scope, did not demonstrate efficacy and further highlights the difficulties in showing continuing evidence of tolerance induction in autoimmunity.