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Este trabajo se ha realizado con el respaldo de GESCE-URJC, GID-TICTAC CCEESS-URJC, Centro de Doctorado Henry Hazlitt-UFM, HOS-UEMC y TRANS-REAL LAB-UVA., Se ofrece una historia intelectual de la revisión de la teoría de ciclos, aplicándose la misma a la Eurozona, con sus auges y recesiones, dando lugar a su deflación del capital con la Gran Recesión de 2008. Se focaliza la atención en la ilustración del caso español y su ciclo, con el auge por la incorporación del euro, dando lugar a una subida continua de precios, generándose una serie de burbujas por las políticas fiscales y monetarias expansivas que terminaron en una gran recesión y deflación del capital y salarios. Para realizar este estudio, se ha acudido a la síntesis heterodoxa, que combina los aportes de la Escuela Austriaca (también sometida a revisión por las nuevas generaciones) junto con los enfoques neoinstitucionalistas y culturales, permitiéndose así una mejor ilustración empírica de la teoría económica., This study offers an intellectual history of the cycle theory revision, applied it to the Eurozone, with its booms and recessions, giving rise to its deflation of capital with the Great Recession of 2008. It is paid attention on the evidence of the Spanish case and its cycle, with the boom due to the incorporation of the euro, giving rise to a continuous rise in prices, generating a series of bubbles due to expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, which ended in a great recession and deflation of capital and wages. To guide this study, it has used the heterodox synthesis, which combines the contributions of the Austrian Economics (also under revision by the new generations) close to the neo-institutionalist and cultural approaches, thus allowing a better empirical illustration of economic theory., Oferece-se uma história intelectual da revisão da teoria dos ciclos, aplicando-a à Zona Euro, com os seus booms e recessões, dando origem à sua deflação de capital com a Grande Recessão de 2008. A atenção centra-se na ilustração do caso espanhol e seu ciclo, com o boom devido à incorporação do euro, dando origem a uma contínua alta de preços, gerando uma série de bolhas devido a políticas fiscais e monetárias expansionistas que culminaram em uma grande recessão e deflação de capital e salários. Para realizar este estudo, foi utilizada a síntese heterodoxa, que combina as contribuições da Escola Austríaca (também sujeita a revisão pelas novas gerações) juntamente com as abordagens neo-institucionalista e cultural, permitindo assim uma melhor ilustração empírica da teoria económica., Depto. de Economía Aplicada, Estructura e Historia, Fac. de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, TRUE, pub

Este trabajo se ha realizado con el respaldo de GESCE-URJC, GID-TICTAC CCEESS-URJC, Centro de Doctorado Henry Hazlitt-UFM, HOS-UEMC y TRANS-REAL LAB-UVA., Se ofrece una historia intelectual de la revisión de la teoría de ciclos, aplicándose la misma a la Eurozona, con sus auges y recesiones, dando lugar a su deflación del capital con la Gran Recesión de 2008. Se focaliza la atención en la ilustración del caso español y su ciclo, con el auge por la incorporación del euro, dando lugar a una subida continua de precios, generándose una serie de burbujas por las políticas fiscales y monetarias expansivas que terminaron en una gran recesión y deflación del capital y salarios. Para realizar este estudio, se ha acudido a la síntesis heterodoxa, que combina los aportes de la Escuela Austriaca (también sometida a revisión por las nuevas generaciones) junto con los enfoques neoinstitucionalistas y culturales, permitiéndose así una mejor ilustración empírica de la teoría económica., This study offers an intellectual history of the cycle theory revision, applied it to the Eurozone, with its booms and recessions, giving rise to its deflation of capital with the Great Recession of 2008. It is paid attention on the evidence of the Spanish case and its cycle, with the boom due to the incorporation of the euro, giving rise to a continuous rise in prices, generating a series of bubbles due to expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, which ended in a great recession and deflation of capital and wages. To guide this study, it has used the heterodox synthesis, which combines the contributions of the Austrian Economics (also under revision by the new generations) close to the neo-institutionalist and cultural approaches, thus allowing a better empirical illustration of economic theory., Oferece-se uma história intelectual da revisão da teoria dos ciclos, aplicando-a à Zona Euro, com os seus booms e recessões, dando origem à sua deflação de capital com a Grande Recessão de 2008. A atenção centra-se na ilustração do caso espanhol e seu ciclo, com o boom devido à incorporação do euro, dando origem a uma contínua alta de preços, gerando uma série de bolhas devido a políticas fiscais e monetárias expansionistas que culminaram em uma grande recessão e deflação de capital e salários. Para realizar este estudo, foi utilizada a síntese heterodoxa, que combina as contribuições da Escola Austríaca (também sujeita a revisão pelas novas gerações) juntamente com as abordagens neo-institucionalista e cultural, permitindo assim uma melhor ilustração empírica da teoria económica., Depto. de Economía Aplicada, Estructura e Historia, Fac. de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, TRUE, pub

This thesis aims to investigate to what extent the quantitative easing monetary policy tool, applied by the Riksbank, contributed to abnormal returns at the Swedish stock market during Covid-19. The chosen time period is 2007-2022, including the period before and after the implementation of quantitative easing in Sweden in 2015. Furthermore, the chosen time period includes two crises, the global financial crisis (GFC) and the Covid-19 crisis. Two artificial portfolios are created, one representing a high-risk portfolio and the other representing a low-risk portfolio. The thesis applies the ADL error correction model to estimate a potential relationship amongst QE and the returns for each of the computed portfolios. Results show a short-run relationship for both the high-risk and the low-risk portfolio. From the long-run perspective, there is only a relationship found concerning the high-risk portfolio. A modified CAPM-model is used as an interpretation when calculating abnormal returns, where the growth rate of industrial production reflects the expected return. Results show the presence of QE and abnormal returns for both portfolios during the time period of Covid-19, 2020-2022., Denna uppsats syftar till att undersöka i vilken utsträckning Riksbankens kvantitativa lättnader bidrog till abnorm avkastning på den svenska aktiemarknaden under Covid-19. Den valdat idsperioden är 2007 – 2022, vilket inkluderar perioden före och efter genomförandet av kvantitativa lättnader i Sverige. Vidare inkluderar den valda tidsperioden två kriser, den globala finanskrisen samt Covid-19-krisen. Två artificiella portföljer konstrueras, där en representerar en högriskportfölj och den andra representerar en lågriskportfölj. Studien tillämpar en ADL error correction modell för att undersöka huruvida det existerar ett samband mellan kvantitativa lättnader och avkastningen för var och en av portföljerna. Resultaten visar ett kortsiktigt förhållande för både högrisk- och lågriskportföljen. Ur det långsiktiga perspektivet hittades endast ett samband för högriskportföljen. En modifierad CAPM-modell används vid beräkning av abnorm avkastning, där variabeln för den industriella produktionstillväxten reflekterar den förväntade avkastningen. Resultaten visar förekomsten av abnorm avkastning i samband de kvantitativa lättnader som genomfördes under Covid-19 för båda portföljerna under tidsperioden 2020–2022.

This thesis aims to investigate to what extent the quantitative easing monetary policy tool, applied by the Riksbank, contributed to abnormal returns at the Swedish stock market during Covid-19. The chosen time period is 2007-2022, including the period before and after the implementation of quantitative easing in Sweden in 2015. Furthermore, the chosen time period includes two crises, the global financial crisis (GFC) and the Covid-19 crisis. Two artificial portfolios are created, one representing a high-risk portfolio and the other representing a low-risk portfolio. The thesis applies the ADL error correction model to estimate a potential relationship amongst QE and the returns for each of the computed portfolios. Results show a short-run relationship for both the high-risk and the low-risk portfolio. From the long-run perspective, there is only a relationship found concerning the high-risk portfolio. A modified CAPM-model is used as an interpretation when calculating abnormal returns, where the growth rate of industrial production reflects the expected return. Results show the presence of QE and abnormal returns for both portfolios during the time period of Covid-19, 2020-2022., Denna uppsats syftar till att undersöka i vilken utsträckning Riksbankens kvantitativa lättnader bidrog till abnorm avkastning på den svenska aktiemarknaden under Covid-19. Den valdat idsperioden är 2007 – 2022, vilket inkluderar perioden före och efter genomförandet av kvantitativa lättnader i Sverige. Vidare inkluderar den valda tidsperioden två kriser, den globala finanskrisen samt Covid-19-krisen. Två artificiella portföljer konstrueras, där en representerar en högriskportfölj och den andra representerar en lågriskportfölj. Studien tillämpar en ADL error correction modell för att undersöka huruvida det existerar ett samband mellan kvantitativa lättnader och avkastningen för var och en av portföljerna. Resultaten visar ett kortsiktigt förhållande för både högrisk- och lågriskportföljen. Ur det långsiktiga perspektivet hittades endast ett samband för högriskportföljen. En modifierad CAPM-modell används vid beräkning av abnorm avkastning, där variabeln för den industriella produktionstillväxten reflekterar den förväntade avkastningen. Resultaten visar förekomsten av abnorm avkastning i samband de kvantitativa lättnader som genomfördes under Covid-19 för båda portföljerna under tidsperioden 2020–2022.

This study offers an intellectual history of the cycle theory revision, applied it to the Eurozone, with its booms and recessions, giving rise to its deflation of capital with the Great Recession of 2008. It is paid attention on the evidence of the Spanish case and its cycle, with the boom due to the incorporation of the euro, giving rise to a continuous rise in prices, generating a series of bubbles due to expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, which ended in a great recession and deflation of capital and wages. To guide this study, it has used the heterodox synthesis, which combines the contributions of the Austrian Economics (also under revision by the new generations) close to the neo-institutionalist and cultural approaches, thus allowing a better empirical illustration of economic theory., Se ofrece una historia intelectual de la revisión de la teoría de ciclos, aplicándose la misma a la Eurozona, con sus auges y recesiones, dando lugar a su deflación del capital con la Gran Recesión de 2008. Se focaliza la atención en la ilustración del caso español y su ciclo, con el auge por la incorporación del euro, dando lugar a una subida continua de precios, generándose una serie de burbujas por las políticas fiscales y monetarias expansivas que terminaron en una gran recesión y deflación del capital y salarios. Para realizar este estudio, se ha acudido a la síntesis heterodoxa, que combina los aportes de la Escuela Austriaca (también sometida a revisión por las nuevas generaciones) junto con los enfoques neoinstitucionalistas y culturales, permitiéndose así una mejor ilustración empírica de la teoría económica., Oferece-se uma história intelectual da revisão da teoria dos ciclos, aplicando-a à Zona Euro, com os seus booms e recessões, dando origem à sua deflação de capital com a Grande Recessão de 2008. A atenção centra-se na ilustração do caso espanhol e seu ciclo, com o boom devido à incorporação do euro, dando origem a uma contínua alta de preços, gerando uma série de bolhas devido a políticas fiscais e monetárias expansionistas que culminaram em uma grande recessão e deflação de capital e salários. Para realizar este estudo, foi utilizada a síntese heterodoxa, que combina as contribuições da Escola Austríaca (também sujeita a revisão pelas novas gerações) juntamente com as abordagens neo-institucionalista e cultural, permitindo assim uma melhor ilustração empírica da teoria económica.

The Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT), based on the insights of Böhm-Bawerk and Mises, became one of the core theoretical insights of the Austrian School of Economics.The 2008 crisis seemed to support the ABCT. Nonetheless, the relatively small harm caused by the crisis and the longest economic expansion ever seen refuted warnings about hyperinflation and civilizational collapse. The aim of this paper is to explain the cause of the relative success of the credit expansion monetary system through the reconstruction of the original Men-gerian theoretical framework combined with the Misesian insights.First, the paper reconstructs Carl Menger’s main tenets of thought. The paper dis-cusses how the post-Mengerien development diverged into two conflicting con-cepts concerning the role of credit: the one conceptualized by Schumpeter and the one conceptualized by Mises. The paper shows how Schumpeter distorted the original Mengerian thought in order to explain business cycles, while Mises, under the influence of Böhm-Bawerk, discarded some of Menger’s key assump-tions making ABCT less reflective of the impacts of the entrepreneurial boom allowed by credit expansion. In the discussion, I argue that the reformation of ABCT based on the combination of the original Mengerian framework and the Misesian insights explains both the resilience and success of the credit based monetary system, but also warns that the real danger is the rise of an omnipotent government based on credit expansion that can pave the road to serfdom., La teoría austriaca del ciclo económico (ABCT), basada en las ideas de Böhm-Bawerk y Mises, se ha convertido en una de las ideas teóricas cen-trales de la Escuela Austriaca de Economía. La crisis de 2008 pareció dar la razón a la ABCT. No obstante, el daño relativamente pequeño causado por la crisis y la expansión económica más larga jamás vista, refutaron las advertencias sobre la hiperinflación y el colapso de la civilización.El objetivo de este artículo es explicar la causa del relativo éxito del sistema monetario basado en la creación de crédito mediante la reconstrucción del marco teórico original mengeriano combinado con las ideas misesianas. En primer lugar, el artículo reconstruye los principales pilares de pensamiento de Carl Menger. Se analiza cómo el pensamiento post-Mengeriano se bifurcó en dos conceptos contradictorios en relación al papel del sistema de créditos; por una parte la teoría de Schumpeter y, por otra, la de Mises. El artículo muestra cómo Schumpeter distorsionó el pensamiento mengeriano original para explicar los ciclos económicos, mientras que Mises, bajo la influencia de Böhm-Bawerk, descartó algunos supuestos clave de Menger; por ello la ABCT refleja en menor grado los impactos del boom empresarial permitido por la expansión del crédito. En la discusión, propongo una reforma de ABCT, basada en la combinación del marco original mengeriano y las ideas misesianas. Esta reconceptualización de ABTC explica por qué no se ha producido una fase de hiperinflación a pesar de la expansión del sistema de créditos de las últi-mas décadas, y advierte de que el peligro real no es la hiperinflación sino el surgimiento de un gobierno omnipotente sobre la base de la expansión del sistema de créditos que allane el camino hacia la servidumbre

The Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT), based on the insights of Böhm-Bawerk and Mises, became one of the core theoretical insights of the Austrian School of Economics.The 2008 crisis seemed to support the ABCT. Nonetheless, the relatively small harm caused by the crisis and the longest economic expansion ever seen refuted warnings about hyperinflation and civilizational collapse. The aim of this paper is to explain the cause of the relative success of the credit expansion monetary system through the reconstruction of the original Men-gerian theoretical framework combined with the Misesian insights.First, the paper reconstructs Carl Menger’s main tenets of thought. The paper dis-cusses how the post-Mengerien development diverged into two conflicting con-cepts concerning the role of credit: the one conceptualized by Schumpeter and the one conceptualized by Mises. The paper shows how Schumpeter distorted the original Mengerian thought in order to explain business cycles, while Mises, under the influence of Böhm-Bawerk, discarded some of Menger’s key assump-tions making ABCT less reflective of the impacts of the entrepreneurial boom allowed by credit expansion. In the discussion, I argue that the reformation of ABCT based on the combination of the original Mengerian framework and the Misesian insights explains both the resilience and success of the credit based monetary system, but also warns that the real danger is the rise of an omnipotent government based on credit expansion that can pave the road to serfdom., La teoría austriaca del ciclo económico (ABCT), basada en las ideas de Böhm-Bawerk y Mises, se ha convertido en una de las ideas teóricas cen-trales de la Escuela Austriaca de Economía. La crisis de 2008 pareció dar la razón a la ABCT. No obstante, el daño relativamente pequeño causado por la crisis y la expansión económica más larga jamás vista, refutaron las advertencias sobre la hiperinflación y el colapso de la civilización.El objetivo de este artículo es explicar la causa del relativo éxito del sistema monetario basado en la creación de crédito mediante la reconstrucción del marco teórico original mengeriano combinado con las ideas misesianas. En primer lugar, el artículo reconstruye los principales pilares de pensamiento de Carl Menger. Se analiza cómo el pensamiento post-Mengeriano se bifurcó en dos conceptos contradictorios en relación al papel del sistema de créditos; por una parte la teoría de Schumpeter y, por otra, la de Mises. El artículo muestra cómo Schumpeter distorsionó el pensamiento mengeriano original para explicar los ciclos económicos, mientras que Mises, bajo la influencia de Böhm-Bawerk, descartó algunos supuestos clave de Menger; por ello la ABCT refleja en menor grado los impactos del boom empresarial permitido por la expansión del crédito. En la discusión, propongo una reforma de ABCT, basada en la combinación del marco original mengeriano y las ideas misesianas. Esta reconceptualización de ABTC explica por qué no se ha producido una fase de hiperinflación a pesar de la expansión del sistema de créditos de las últi-mas décadas, y advierte de que el peligro real no es la hiperinflación sino el surgimiento de un gobierno omnipotente sobre la base de la expansión del sistema de créditos que allane el camino hacia la servidumbre

Vi genomför en fallstudie av finanskrisen genom åren 2007 t.o.m. 2011 för USA, Storbritannien och Tyskland. Vi utgår ifrån den österrikiska konjunkturcykelteorin och undersöker om teorin rimligen kan förklara händelserna i våra tre utvalda länder. Vi genomför en deduktiv studie där vi extrapolerar fem hypoteser från den österrikiska konjunkturteorin för att se hur väl konjunkturförloppet motsvarar hypoteserna. Vårt empiriska material är samlat från artiklar om enskilda händelser under finanskrisens gång samt ekonomisk data som visar utvecklingen av ett urval av tillväxtfaktorer som inryms i hypoteserna. Vi finner att den österrikiska konjunkturteorin har en god förklaringsgrad för USA och Storbritannien men mönstret i konjunkturförloppet för Tyskland talar delvis emot våra hypotesers prediktioner och tyder på att Tyskland inte var inne i en boom/bust-cykel., We perform a case study of the financial crisis through the years 2007 - 2011 for USA, Great Britain and Germany. The Austrian theory of the business cycle is our framework and we examine if the theory reasonably can explain the events in our three chosen countries. We perform a deductive study where we extrapolate five hypotheses from the Austrian theory of the business cycle to see how well the business cycle corresponds to the hypothesis. Our empirical material is collected from articles on individual events during the financial crisis as well as economic data that show the development on a number of growth factors that are included in the hypothesis. We find that the Austrian business cycle theory has a good degree of explanation for USA and Great Britain but the pattern of the business cycle for Germany partly contradicts the predictions of our hypothesis and indicates that Germany never was in a boom/bust-cycle.

Vi genomför en fallstudie av finanskrisen genom åren 2007 t.o.m. 2011 för USA, Storbritannien och Tyskland. Vi utgår ifrån den österrikiska konjunkturcykelteorin och undersöker om teorin rimligen kan förklara händelserna i våra tre utvalda länder. Vi genomför en deduktiv studie där vi extrapolerar fem hypoteser från den österrikiska konjunkturteorin för att se hur väl konjunkturförloppet motsvarar hypoteserna. Vårt empiriska material är samlat från artiklar om enskilda händelser under finanskrisens gång samt ekonomisk data som visar utvecklingen av ett urval av tillväxtfaktorer som inryms i hypoteserna. Vi finner att den österrikiska konjunkturteorin har en god förklaringsgrad för USA och Storbritannien men mönstret i konjunkturförloppet för Tyskland talar delvis emot våra hypotesers prediktioner och tyder på att Tyskland inte var inne i en boom/bust-cykel., We perform a case study of the financial crisis through the years 2007 - 2011 for USA, Great Britain and Germany. The Austrian theory of the business cycle is our framework and we examine if the theory reasonably can explain the events in our three chosen countries. We perform a deductive study where we extrapolate five hypotheses from the Austrian theory of the business cycle to see how well the business cycle corresponds to the hypothesis. Our empirical material is collected from articles on individual events during the financial crisis as well as economic data that show the development on a number of growth factors that are included in the hypothesis. We find that the Austrian business cycle theory has a good degree of explanation for USA and Great Britain but the pattern of the business cycle for Germany partly contradicts the predictions of our hypothesis and indicates that Germany never was in a boom/bust-cycle.

Today’s household debt consists for the most part of credit money, and this general phenomenon does not only occur in Sweden. Money in the economy is mostly created by private banks, as much as 97 percent of the money in the United States, while central banks only create a very small share of all money. This is the reason for the oppressed household debt. During this period of high debt in Sweden, the household consumption has also increased in comparison to earlier years. The aim is to study and compare how the money supply in two different full-reserve systems, the Austrian through convertibility and the Chicago plan through quantity control, would reduce the household debt in relation to today’s fractional system. The method used in this study is a time series analysis where data of Sweden’s household debt, savings, money supply; M1 and M3, GDP, assets, currency reserves, gold reserves and interest rates has been collected for the years 2005-2013. These are further examined in three different equations. The data for all the variables was collected from SCB, IMF, Ekonomifakta and the World Data Bank. The first theory that is used in this study is Wicksell’s cumulative process which will explain how the money supply M3 affects household debt in today's fractional reserve system. The second theory is the Austrian Business Cycle Theory which will examine the money supply M1 effect on household debt through full reserves by convertibility control. The third theory is the Friedman rule, where the effect of household debt by money supply M1 will be examined. This rule explains how the Chicago Plan is affecting household debt through a full reserve system by quantity control. In the both systems, fractional reserves and full reserves, the debt will increase in this study. The result shows that with full reserves, the household debt would be backed by savings in comparison to fractional reserves, where household debt would be backed by credit money. Therefore, full reserv, Största delen av hushållens skuldsättning består idag av kreditpengar, och detta generella fenomen finns inte bara i Sverige. Pengarna i ekonomin är för det mesta skapade av affärsbankerna, så mycket som 97 procent i USA, medan centralbanken endast skapar en liten del av dessa pengar. Detta är anledningen till de höga hushållsskulderna. Under den här perioden av hög skuldsättning i Sverige så har även hushållens konsumtion ökat i förhållande till tidigare år. Syftet med denna studie är att jämföra hur penningmängden i två olika hundraprocentiga reservsystem, den österrikiska konjunkturcykeln, genom konvertibilitet, och Chicago planen, genom kvantitetskontroll, skulle reducera hushållens skulder i relation till dagens bråkdelsreservsystem. Metoden som används i denna studie är en tidsserieanalys där data från hushållens skulder, sparande, penningmängd; M1 och M3, BNP, tillgångar, guldreserver, valutareserver och repo räntan har samlats in under åren 2005-2013. Dessa variabler är studerade i tre olika ekvationer och all data har samlats in från SCB; IMF, Ekonomifakta och the World Data Bank. Den första teorin som används är Wicksells kumulativa process som beskriver hur penningmängden M3 påverkar hushållens skulder i dagens bråkdelsreservsystem. Den andra teorin är den österrikiska konjunkturcykel teorin och kommer att undersöka penningmängden M1 effekt på hushållens skulder med ett hundraprocentigt reservsystem med konvertibilitetskontroll. Den tredje teorin är Friedmans regel, där effekten på hushållens skulder kommer att bli undersökt med hjälp av penningmängden M1. Denna regel förklarar hur Chicagoplanen påverkar hushållens skulder via ett hundraprocentigt reservsystem med kvantitetskontroll. Hushållens skuldsättning ökade i samtliga regressioner och resultaten visar att med hundraprocentiga reserver så skulle hushållens skulder vara backade med sparande, jämfört med bråkdelsreserver, där hushållens skulder skulle vara backade med krediter. Därför skulle hundrapro

Today’s household debt consists for the most part of credit money, and this general phenomenon does not only occur in Sweden. Money in the economy is mostly created by private banks, as much as 97 percent of the money in the United States, while central banks only create a very small share of all money. This is the reason for the oppressed household debt. During this period of high debt in Sweden, the household consumption has also increased in comparison to earlier years. The aim is to study and compare how the money supply in two different full-reserve systems, the Austrian through convertibility and the Chicago plan through quantity control, would reduce the household debt in relation to today’s fractional system. The method used in this study is a time series analysis where data of Sweden’s household debt, savings, money supply; M1 and M3, GDP, assets, currency reserves, gold reserves and interest rates has been collected for the years 2005-2013. These are further examined in three different equations. The data for all the variables was collected from SCB, IMF, Ekonomifakta and the World Data Bank. The first theory that is used in this study is Wicksell’s cumulative process which will explain how the money supply M3 affects household debt in today's fractional reserve system. The second theory is the Austrian Business Cycle Theory which will examine the money supply M1 effect on household debt through full reserves by convertibility control. The third theory is the Friedman rule, where the effect of household debt by money supply M1 will be examined. This rule explains how the Chicago Plan is affecting household debt through a full reserve system by quantity control. In the both systems, fractional reserves and full reserves, the debt will increase in this study. The result shows that with full reserves, the household debt would be backed by savings in comparison to fractional reserves, where household debt would be backed by credit money. Therefore, full reserv, Största delen av hushållens skuldsättning består idag av kreditpengar, och detta generella fenomen finns inte bara i Sverige. Pengarna i ekonomin är för det mesta skapade av affärsbankerna, så mycket som 97 procent i USA, medan centralbanken endast skapar en liten del av dessa pengar. Detta är anledningen till de höga hushållsskulderna. Under den här perioden av hög skuldsättning i Sverige så har även hushållens konsumtion ökat i förhållande till tidigare år. Syftet med denna studie är att jämföra hur penningmängden i två olika hundraprocentiga reservsystem, den österrikiska konjunkturcykeln, genom konvertibilitet, och Chicago planen, genom kvantitetskontroll, skulle reducera hushållens skulder i relation till dagens bråkdelsreservsystem. Metoden som används i denna studie är en tidsserieanalys där data från hushållens skulder, sparande, penningmängd; M1 och M3, BNP, tillgångar, guldreserver, valutareserver och repo räntan har samlats in under åren 2005-2013. Dessa variabler är studerade i tre olika ekvationer och all data har samlats in från SCB; IMF, Ekonomifakta och the World Data Bank. Den första teorin som används är Wicksells kumulativa process som beskriver hur penningmängden M3 påverkar hushållens skulder i dagens bråkdelsreservsystem. Den andra teorin är den österrikiska konjunkturcykel teorin och kommer att undersöka penningmängden M1 effekt på hushållens skulder med ett hundraprocentigt reservsystem med konvertibilitetskontroll. Den tredje teorin är Friedmans regel, där effekten på hushållens skulder kommer att bli undersökt med hjälp av penningmängden M1. Denna regel förklarar hur Chicagoplanen påverkar hushållens skulder via ett hundraprocentigt reservsystem med kvantitetskontroll. Hushållens skuldsättning ökade i samtliga regressioner och resultaten visar att med hundraprocentiga reserver så skulle hushållens skulder vara backade med sparande, jämfört med bråkdelsreserver, där hushållens skulder skulle vara backade med krediter. Därför skulle hundrapro

The performance of the argentinean economy is analyzed in this work from the perspective of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory. For this purpose, such theory is briefly presented and Mark Spitznagel’s work on “Tobin’s Q” is used as a tool in order to identify sub valuation and over valuation in the Economy. Spitznagel’s theory finds in “Tobin’s Q” a high degree of efficiency not only at identifying each phase of the Business Cycle, but also as a possible indicator in order to predict the magnitude of the bust that will follow the boom. In order to apply this theory in the case of Argentina, we used the IPAP (Q) Index, elaborated by Juan J. Llach, Nicolás Bernabé and contributors, in order to identify overvaluation in the Argentinean Economy, which is currently rising again (in a boom), even beating the historic high of mid 2011., En el presente trabajo se pretende analizar la evolución de la economía argentina desde la perspectiva de la Teoría del Ciclo Económico de la Escuela Austríaca. Para ello se repasa brevemente dicha teoría y se utiliza el trabajo de Mark Spitznagel y el uso de la “Q de Tobin” como medida a partir de la cual se pretende identificar sobrevaluación y subvaluación en la economía. La investigación de Spitznagel corrobora en la “Q de Tobin” un alto grado de eficacia a la hora no sólo de identificar las fases del ciclo económico, sino también como un posible indicador para pronosticar la magnitud de la corrección posterior a la fase alcista, durante la fase recesiva. Para su aplicación al caso argentino utilizamos el índice IPAP (Q), elaborado por Juan J. Llach, Nicolás Bernabé y colaboradores, a los efectos de identificar la sobrevaluación en la economía argentina, que actualmente tiende al alza nuevamente (en una fase alcista), superando incluso el alto histórico a mediados de 2011.

The performance of the argentinean economy is analyzed in this work from the perspective of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory. For this purpose, such theory is briefly presented and Mark Spitznagel’s work on “Tobin’s Q” is used as a tool in order to identify sub valuation and over valuation in the Economy. Spitznagel’s theory finds in “Tobin’s Q” a high degree of efficiency not only at identifying each phase of the Business Cycle, but also as a possible indicator in order to predict the magnitude of the bust that will follow the boom. In order to apply this theory in the case of Argentina, we used the IPAP (Q) Index, elaborated by Juan J. Llach, Nicolás Bernabé and contributors, in order to identify overvaluation in the Argentinean Economy, which is currently rising again (in a boom), even beating the historic high of mid 2011., En el presente trabajo se pretende analizar la evolución de la economía argentina desde la perspectiva de la Teoría del Ciclo Económico de la Escuela Austríaca. Para ello se repasa brevemente dicha teoría y se utiliza el trabajo de Mark Spitznagel y el uso de la “Q de Tobin” como medida a partir de la cual se pretende identificar sobrevaluación y subvaluación en la economía. La investigación de Spitznagel corrobora en la “Q de Tobin” un alto grado de eficacia a la hora no sólo de identificar las fases del ciclo económico, sino también como un posible indicador para pronosticar la magnitud de la corrección posterior a la fase alcista, durante la fase recesiva. Para su aplicación al caso argentino utilizamos el índice IPAP (Q), elaborado por Juan J. Llach, Nicolás Bernabé y colaboradores, a los efectos de identificar la sobrevaluación en la economía argentina, que actualmente tiende al alza nuevamente (en una fase alcista), superando incluso el alto histórico a mediados de 2011.

The performance of the argentinean economy is analyzed in this work from the perspective of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory. For this purpose, such theory is briefly presented and Mark Spitznagel’s work on “Tobin’s Q” is used as a tool in order to identify sub valuation and over valuation in the Economy. Spitznagel’s theory finds in “Tobin’s Q” a high degree of efficiency not only at identifying each phase of the Business Cycle, but also as a possible indicator in order to predict the magnitude of the bust that will follow the boom. In order to apply this theory in the case of Argentina, we used the IPAP (Q) Index, elaborated by Juan J. Llach, Nicolás Bernabé and contributors, in order to identify overvaluation in the Argentinean Economy, which is currently rising again (in a boom), even beating the historic high of mid 2011., En el presente trabajo se pretende analizar la evolución de la economía argentina desde la perspectiva de la Teoría del Ciclo Económico de la Escuela Austríaca. Para ello se repasa brevemente dicha teoría y se utiliza el trabajo de Mark Spitznagel y el uso de la “Q de Tobin” como medida a partir de la cual se pretende identificar sobrevaluación y subvaluación en la economía. La investigación de Spitznagel corrobora en la “Q de Tobin” un alto grado de eficacia a la hora no sólo de identificar las fases del ciclo económico, sino también como un posible indicador para pronosticar la magnitud de la corrección posterior a la fase alcista, durante la fase recesiva. Para su aplicación al caso argentino utilizamos el índice IPAP (Q), elaborado por Juan J. Llach, Nicolás Bernabé y colaboradores, a los efectos de identificar la sobrevaluación en la economía argentina, que actualmente tiende al alza nuevamente (en una fase alcista), superando incluso el alto histórico a mediados de 2011.

The performance of the argentinean economy is analyzed in this work from the perspective of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory. For this purpose, such theory is briefly presented and Mark Spitznagel’s work on “Tobin’s Q” is used as a tool in order to identify sub valuation and over valuation in the Economy. Spitznagel’s theory finds in “Tobin’s Q” a high degree of efficiency not only at identifying each phase of the Business Cycle, but also as a possible indicator in order to predict the magnitude of the bust that will follow the boom. In order to apply this theory in the case of Argentina, we used the IPAP (Q) Index, elaborated by Juan J. Llach, Nicolás Bernabé and contributors, in order to identify overvaluation in the Argentinean Economy, which is currently rising again (in a boom), even beating the historic high of mid 2011., En el presente trabajo se pretende analizar la evolución de la economía argentina desde la perspectiva de la Teoría del Ciclo Económico de la Escuela Austríaca. Para ello se repasa brevemente dicha teoría y se utiliza el trabajo de Mark Spitznagel y el uso de la “Q de Tobin” como medida a partir de la cual se pretende identificar sobrevaluación y subvaluación en la economía. La investigación de Spitznagel corrobora en la “Q de Tobin” un alto grado de eficacia a la hora no sólo de identificar las fases del ciclo económico, sino también como un posible indicador para pronosticar la magnitud de la corrección posterior a la fase alcista, durante la fase recesiva. Para su aplicación al caso argentino utilizamos el índice IPAP (Q), elaborado por Juan J. Llach, Nicolás Bernabé y colaboradores, a los efectos de identificar la sobrevaluación en la economía argentina, que actualmente tiende al alza nuevamente (en una fase alcista), superando incluso el alto histórico a mediados de 2011.

The performance of the argentinean economy is analyzed in this work from the perspective of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory. For this purpose, such theory is briefly presented and Mark Spitznagel’s work on “Tobin’s Q” is used as a tool in order to identify sub valuation and over valuation in the Economy. Spitznagel’s theory finds in “Tobin’s Q” a high degree of efficiency not only at identifying each phase of the Business Cycle, but also as a possible indicator in order to predict the magnitude of the bust that will follow the boom. In order to apply this theory in the case of Argentina, we used the IPAP (Q) Index, elaborated by Juan J. Llach, Nicolás Bernabé and contributors, in order to identify overvaluation in the Argentinean Economy, which is currently rising again (in a boom), even beating the historic high of mid 2011., En el presente trabajo se pretende analizar la evolución de la economía argentina desde la perspectiva de la Teoría del Ciclo Económico de la Escuela Austríaca. Para ello se repasa brevemente dicha teoría y se utiliza el trabajo de Mark Spitznagel y el uso de la “Q de Tobin” como medida a partir de la cual se pretende identificar sobrevaluación y subvaluación en la economía. La investigación de Spitznagel corrobora en la “Q de Tobin” un alto grado de eficacia a la hora no sólo de identificar las fases del ciclo económico, sino también como un posible indicador para pronosticar la magnitud de la corrección posterior a la fase alcista, durante la fase recesiva. Para su aplicación al caso argentino utilizamos el índice IPAP (Q), elaborado por Juan J. Llach, Nicolás Bernabé y colaboradores, a los efectos de identificar la sobrevaluación en la economía argentina, que actualmente tiende al alza nuevamente (en una fase alcista), superando incluso el alto histórico a mediados de 2011.

The performance of the argentinean economy is analyzed in this work from the perspective of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory. For this purpose, such theory is briefly presented and Mark Spitznagel’s work on “Tobin’s Q” is used as a tool in order to identify sub valuation and over valuation in the Economy. Spitznagel’s theory finds in “Tobin’s Q” a high degree of efficiency not only at identifying each phase of the Business Cycle, but also as a possible indicator in order to predict the magnitude of the bust that will follow the boom. In order to apply this theory in the case of Argentina, we used the IPAP (Q) Index, elaborated by Juan J. Llach, Nicolás Bernabé and contributors, in order to identify overvaluation in the Argentinean Economy, which is currently rising again (in a boom), even beating the historic high of mid 2011., En el presente trabajo se pretende analizar la evolución de la economía argentina desde la perspectiva de la Teoría del Ciclo Económico de la Escuela Austríaca. Para ello se repasa brevemente dicha teoría y se utiliza el trabajo de Mark Spitznagel y el uso de la “Q de Tobin” como medida a partir de la cual se pretende identificar sobrevaluación y subvaluación en la economía. La investigación de Spitznagel corrobora en la “Q de Tobin” un alto grado de eficacia a la hora no sólo de identificar las fases del ciclo económico, sino también como un posible indicador para pronosticar la magnitud de la corrección posterior a la fase alcista, durante la fase recesiva. Para su aplicación al caso argentino utilizamos el índice IPAP (Q), elaborado por Juan J. Llach, Nicolás Bernabé y colaboradores, a los efectos de identificar la sobrevaluación en la economía argentina, que actualmente tiende al alza nuevamente (en una fase alcista), superando incluso el alto histórico a mediados de 2011.

This paper examines the correlation between credit intermediated by financial systems and economic growth in developing countries. More specifically we have studied whether well-functioning financial markets result in economic growth. We base our study on data from 53 low- and lower-middle income countries in the period 2004-2011. By comparing the two different economic theories, Schumpeter’s growth theory and Austrian business cycle theory, we have analysed our results from two different perspectives. The results from this study show an insignificant relationship between financial systems and economic growth, contradicting much of the theory and results from previous studies that have been reviewed. Other variables outside of the financial system in this study, such as economic freedom and corruption, could be a reason for the non-existent correlation between financial development and economic growth in this study.

This paper examines the correlation between credit intermediated by financial systems and economic growth in developing countries. More specifically we have studied whether well-functioning financial markets result in economic growth. We base our study on data from 53 low- and lower-middle income countries in the period 2004-2011. By comparing the two different economic theories, Schumpeter’s growth theory and Austrian business cycle theory, we have analysed our results from two different perspectives. The results from this study show an insignificant relationship between financial systems and economic growth, contradicting much of the theory and results from previous studies that have been reviewed. Other variables outside of the financial system in this study, such as economic freedom and corruption, could be a reason for the non-existent correlation between financial development and economic growth in this study.

According to Austrian Business Cycle Theory a policy-induced lowering of the short policy interest rate below an unobservable natural interest rate can lead to an unsustainable boom in the economy, resulting in misallocated capital. As the unsustainability of this boom eventually becomes apparent and corrected the misallocated capital gets liquidated and causes a recession. It is thus of interest to evaluate the theory to find if and how a policy-induced lowering of the interest rate affects the output of an economy. This thesis investigates the validity of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory using series of capital’s share, labour’s share and output for ten sub-industries of the American economy between 1947 and 1997. These are included in a sector-specific Cobb-Douglas production function. Given the characteristics of the data and the cointegrating relationship between the series we deploy a Vector Error Correction Model, using the difference (spread) between three estimated natural interest rates and the short policy interest rate as an exogenous variable. We treat a positive spread as an expansionary policy and investigate how it affects the output of each industry. Although parts of the results in our study lend support to the Austrian Business Cycle Theory we conclude that there is not enough evidence to support it; the results are largely inconsistent with theory and not statistically significant to a sufficient extent.

According to Austrian Business Cycle Theory a policy-induced lowering of the short policy interest rate below an unobservable natural interest rate can lead to an unsustainable boom in the economy, resulting in misallocated capital. As the unsustainability of this boom eventually becomes apparent and corrected the misallocated capital gets liquidated and causes a recession. It is thus of interest to evaluate the theory to find if and how a policy-induced lowering of the interest rate affects the output of an economy. This thesis investigates the validity of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory using series of capital’s share, labour’s share and output for ten sub-industries of the American economy between 1947 and 1997. These are included in a sector-specific Cobb-Douglas production function. Given the characteristics of the data and the cointegrating relationship between the series we deploy a Vector Error Correction Model, using the difference (spread) between three estimated natural interest rates and the short policy interest rate as an exogenous variable. We treat a positive spread as an expansionary policy and investigate how it affects the output of each industry. Although parts of the results in our study lend support to the Austrian Business Cycle Theory we conclude that there is not enough evidence to support it; the results are largely inconsistent with theory and not statistically significant to a sufficient extent.

The Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABC) provides a qualitative explanation of why economies go through ups and downs in terms of national income, production output and labor employment. The theory states that interest and money supply policy distort the time preferences of economic agents. If the monetary authority reduces the interest rate through artificial credit expansion the new economic conditions induce both increased production and consumption. The framework of the Austrian theory depends on savings to fuel investments, i.e. reduced consumption in order to create increased future consumption. Artificially induced expansions create a wedge between these producer and consumer preferences, and prolonging of the process widens the gap between the economic state and the free market equilibrium which is long-term sustainable. When the financial system eventually is unable to maintain inflation of credit to uphold the economy, there will be abandonment of capital investments, resulting in an unavoidable recession. The purpose of this thesis is to analyze the theory from a short run perspective, using data from the United Kingdom economy. The theory has previously primarily been tested in long run perspectives and mainly on the American economy. To achieve the noted a model was constructed based on the description of the theory by economists Hayek and Garrison, members of the Austrian school of economics. To empirically model the ABC theory the ratio between consumption and investment, the intertemporal resource allocation, was calculated and used as a dependent variable in regressions with money aggregates, credit and interest rate gap as independent variables. The empirical findings give some support to the theory, with a number of those findings directly in favor of the theory. Credit was shown to better explain changes in the C/I ratio than money aggregates, indicating that credit is more directly suited for investments

The Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABC) provides a qualitative explanation of why economies go through ups and downs in terms of national income, production output and labor employment. The theory states that interest and money supply policy distort the time preferences of economic agents. If the monetary authority reduces the interest rate through artificial credit expansion the new economic conditions induce both increased production and consumption. The framework of the Austrian theory depends on savings to fuel investments, i.e. reduced consumption in order to create increased future consumption. Artificially induced expansions create a wedge between these producer and consumer preferences, and prolonging of the process widens the gap between the economic state and the free market equilibrium which is long-term sustainable. When the financial system eventually is unable to maintain inflation of credit to uphold the economy, there will be abandonment of capital investments, resulting in an unavoidable recession. The purpose of this thesis is to analyze the theory from a short run perspective, using data from the United Kingdom economy. The theory has previously primarily been tested in long run perspectives and mainly on the American economy. To achieve the noted a model was constructed based on the description of the theory by economists Hayek and Garrison, members of the Austrian school of economics. To empirically model the ABC theory the ratio between consumption and investment, the intertemporal resource allocation, was calculated and used as a dependent variable in regressions with money aggregates, credit and interest rate gap as independent variables. The empirical findings give some support to the theory, with a number of those findings directly in favor of the theory. Credit was shown to better explain changes in the C/I ratio than money aggregates, indicating that credit is more directly suited for investments