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In order to circumvent statistical and computational hardness results in sequential decision-making, recent work has considered smoothed online learning, where the distribution of data at each time is assumed to have bounded likeliehood ratio with respect to a base measure when conditioned on the history. While previous works have demonstrated the benefits of smoothness, they have either assumed that the base measure is known to the learner or have presented computationally inefficient algorithms applying only in special cases. This work investigates the more general setting where the base measure is \emph{unknown} to the learner, focusing in particular on the performance of Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) with square loss when the data are well-specified and smooth. We show that in this setting, ERM is able to achieve sublinear error whenever a class is learnable with iid data; in particular, ERM achieves error scaling as $\tilde O( \sqrt{\mathrm{comp}(\mathcal F)\cdot T} )$, where $\mathrm{comp}(\mathcal F)$ is the statistical complexity of learning $\mathcal F$ with iid data. In so doing, we prove a novel norm comparison bound for smoothed data that comprises the first sharp norm comparison for dependent data applying to arbitrary, nonlinear function classes. We complement these results with a lower bound indicating that our analysis of ERM is essentially tight, establishing a separation in the performance of ERM between smoothed and iid data.

Due to statistical lower bounds on the learnability of many function classes under privacy constraints, there has been recent interest in leveraging public data to improve the performance of private learning algorithms. In this model, algorithms must always guarantee differential privacy with respect to the private samples while also ensuring learning guarantees when the private data distribution is sufficiently close to that of the public data. Previous work has demonstrated that when sufficient public, unlabelled data is available, private learning can be made statistically tractable, but the resulting algorithms have all been computationally inefficient. In this work, we present the first computationally efficient, algorithms to provably leverage public data to learn privately whenever a function class is learnable non-privately, where our notion of computational efficiency is with respect to the number of calls to an optimization oracle for the function class. In addition to this general result, we provide specialized algorithms with improved sample complexities in the special cases when the function class is convex or when the task is binary classification.

Smoothed online learning has emerged as a popular framework to mitigate the substantial loss in statistical and computational complexity that arises when one moves from classical to adversarial learning. Unfortunately, for some spaces, it has been shown that efficient algorithms suffer an exponentially worse regret than that which is minimax optimal, even when the learner has access to an optimization oracle over the space. To mitigate that exponential dependence, this work introduces a new notion of complexity, the generalized bracketing numbers, which marries constraints on the adversary to the size of the space, and shows that an instantiation of Follow-the-Perturbed-Leader can attain low regret with the number of calls to the optimization oracle scaling optimally with respect to average regret. We then instantiate our bounds in several problems of interest, including online prediction and planning of piecewise continuous functions, which has many applications in fields as diverse as econometrics and robotics.

Suppose we are given access to $n$ independent samples from distribution $\mu$ and we wish to output one of them with the goal of making the output distributed as close as possible to a target distribution $\nu$. In this work we show that the optimal total variation distance as a function of $n$ is given by $\tilde\Theta(\frac{D}{f'(n)})$ over the class of all pairs $\nu,\mu$ with a bounded $f$-divergence $D_f(\nu\|\mu)\leq D$. Previously, this question was studied only for the case when the Radon-Nikodym derivative of $\nu$ with respect to $\mu$ is uniformly bounded. We then consider an application in the seemingly very different field of smoothed online learning, where we show that recent results on the minimax regret and the regret of oracle-efficient algorithms still hold even under relaxed constraints on the adversary (to have bounded $f$-divergence, as opposed to bounded Radon-Nikodym derivative). Finally, we also study efficacy of importance sampling for mean estimates uniform over a function class and compare importance sampling with rejection sampling., Comment: Corrected mistake in proof of Lemma 27 from the COLT 2023 version of this paper

The problem of piecewise affine (PWA) regression and planning is of foundational importance to the study of online learning, control, and robotics, where it provides a theoretically and empirically tractable setting to study systems undergoing sharp changes in the dynamics. Unfortunately, due to the discontinuities that arise when crossing into different ``pieces,'' learning in general sequential settings is impossible and practical algorithms are forced to resort to heuristic approaches. This paper builds on the recently developed smoothed online learning framework and provides the first algorithms for prediction and simulation in PWA systems whose regret is polynomial in all relevant problem parameters under a weak smoothness assumption; moreover, our algorithms are efficient in the number of calls to an optimization oracle. We further apply our results to the problems of one-step prediction and multi-step simulation regret in piecewise affine dynamical systems, where the learner is tasked with simulating trajectories and regret is measured in terms of the Wasserstein distance between simulated and true data. Along the way, we develop several technical tools of more general interest.

The Steward Observatory LEO Satellite Photometric Survey is a comprehensive observational survey to characterize the apparent brightness of the Starlink and OneWeb low Earth orbit satellites and evaluate the potential impact on astronomy. We report the results of over 16,000 independent measurements of nearly 2800 individual satellites. In addition to photometry, we also measured the astrometric position of each satellite and evaluated the accuracy of predicting satellite position with the available two-line element sets. The apparent brightness of a satellite seen in the sky is not constant and depends on the Sun-satellite-observer geometry. To capture this, we designed the survey to create an all-geometries set of measurements to fully characterize the brightness of each population of satellites as seen in the sky. We visualize the data with sky-plots that show the correlation of apparent brightness with on-sky position and relative Sun-satellite-observer geometry. The sky-plots show where in the sky the satellites are brightest. In addition to visual magnitudes, we also present two new metrics: the expected photon flux and the effective albedo. The expected photon flux metric assesses the potential impact on astronomy sensors by predicting the flux for a satellite trail in an image from a theoretical 1 m class telescope and sensor. The effective albedo metric assesses where a satellite is more reflective than baseline, which ties to the physical structure of the satellite and indicates the potential for brightness-reducing design changes. We intend to use this methodology and resulting data to inform the astronomy community about satellite brightness., Comment: 20 pages, 17 figures; published in PASP; this copy includes correct Figure 16 in place rather than separate in Erratum

This work studies training instabilities of behavior cloning with deep neural networks. We observe that minibatch SGD updates to the policy network during training result in sharp oscillations in long-horizon rewards, despite negligibly affecting the behavior cloning loss. We empirically disentangle the statistical and computational causes of these oscillations, and find them to stem from the chaotic propagation of minibatch SGD noise through unstable closed-loop dynamics. While SGD noise is benign in the single-step action prediction objective, it results in catastrophic error accumulation over long horizons, an effect we term gradient variance amplification (GVA). We show that many standard mitigation techniques do not alleviate GVA, but find an exponential moving average (EMA) of iterates to be surprisingly effective at doing so. We illustrate the generality of this phenomenon by showing the existence of GVA and its amelioration by EMA in both continuous control and autoregressive language generation. Finally, we provide theoretical vignettes that highlight the benefits of EMA in alleviating GVA and shed light on the extent to which classical convex models can help in understanding the benefits of iterate averaging in deep learning.

We propose a theoretical framework for studying behavior cloning of complex expert demonstrations using generative modeling. Our framework invokes low-level controllers - either learned or implicit in position-command control - to stabilize imitation around expert demonstrations. We show that with (a) a suitable low-level stability guarantee and (b) a powerful enough generative model as our imitation learner, pure supervised behavior cloning can generate trajectories matching the per-time step distribution of essentially arbitrary expert trajectories in an optimal transport cost. Our analysis relies on a stochastic continuity property of the learned policy we call "total variation continuity" (TVC). We then show that TVC can be ensured with minimal degradation of accuracy by combining a popular data-augmentation regimen with a novel algorithmic trick: adding augmentation noise at execution time. We instantiate our guarantees for policies parameterized by diffusion models and prove that if the learner accurately estimates the score of the (noise-augmented) expert policy, then the distribution of imitator trajectories is close to the demonstrator distribution in a natural optimal transport distance. Our analysis constructs intricate couplings between noise-augmented trajectories, a technique that may be of independent interest. We conclude by empirically validating our algorithmic recommendations, and discussing implications for future research directions for better behavior cloning with generative modeling., Comment: updated figures, minor notational change for readability

A major challenge in reinforcement learning is to develop practical, sample-efficient algorithms for exploration in high-dimensional domains where generalization and function approximation is required. Low-Rank Markov Decision Processes -- where transition probabilities admit a low-rank factorization based on an unknown feature embedding -- offer a simple, yet expressive framework for RL with function approximation, but existing algorithms are either (1) computationally intractable, or (2) reliant upon restrictive statistical assumptions such as latent variable structure, access to model-based function approximation, or reachability. In this work, we propose the first provably sample-efficient algorithm for exploration in Low-Rank MDPs that is both computationally efficient and model-free, allowing for general function approximation and requiring no additional structural assumptions. Our algorithm, VoX, uses the notion of a barycentric spanner for the feature embedding as an efficiently computable basis for exploration, performing efficient barycentric spanner computation by interleaving representation learning and policy optimization. Our analysis -- which is appealingly simple and modular -- carefully combines several techniques, including a new approach to error-tolerant barycentric spanner computation and an improved analysis of a certain minimax representation learning objective found in prior work.

Due to the drastic gap in complexity between sequential and batch statistical learning, recent work has studied a smoothed sequential learning setting, where Nature is constrained to select contexts with density bounded by 1/{\sigma} with respect to a known measure {\mu}. Unfortunately, for some function classes, there is an exponential gap between the statistically optimal regret and that which can be achieved efficiently. In this paper, we give a computationally efficient algorithm that is the first to enjoy the statistically optimal log(T/{\sigma}) regret for realizable K-wise linear classification. We extend our results to settings where the true classifier is linear in an over-parameterized polynomial featurization of the contexts, as well as to a realizable piecewise-regression setting assuming access to an appropriate ERM oracle. Somewhat surprisingly, standard disagreement-based analyses are insufficient to achieve regret logarithmic in 1/{\sigma}. Instead, we develop a novel characterization of the geometry of the disagreement region induced by generalized linear classifiers. Along the way, we develop numerous technical tools of independent interest, including a general anti-concentration bound for the determinant of certain matrix averages.

Consider an empirical measure $\mathbb{P}_n$ induced by $n$ iid samples from a $d$-dimensional $K$-subgaussian distribution $\mathbb{P}$ and let $\gamma = \mathcal{N}(0,\sigma^2 I_d)$ be the isotropic Gaussian measure. We study the speed of convergence of the smoothed Wasserstein distance $W_2(\mathbb{P}_n * \gamma, \mathbb{P}*\gamma) = n^{-\alpha + o(1)}$ with $*$ being the convolution of measures. For $K<\sigma$ and in any dimension $d\ge 1$ we show that $\alpha = {1\over2}$. For $K>\sigma$ in dimension $d=1$ we show that the rate is slower and is given by $\alpha = {(\sigma^2 + K^2)^2\over 4 (\sigma^4 + K^4)} < 1/2$. This resolves several open problems in \cite{goldfeld2020convergence}, and in particular precisely identifies the amount of smoothing $\sigma$ needed to obtain a parametric rate. In addition, we also establish that $D_{KL}(\mathbb{P}_n * \gamma \|\mathbb{P}*\gamma)$ has rate $O(1/n)$ for $K<\sigma$ but only slows down to $O({(\log n)^{d+1}\over n})$ for $K>\sigma$. The surprising difference of the behavior of $W_2^2$ and KL implies the failure of $T_{2}$-transportation inequality when $\sigma < K$. Consequently, the requirement $K<\sigma$ is necessary for validity of the log-Sobolev inequality (LSI) for the Gaussian mixture $\mathbb{P} * \mathcal{N}(0, \sigma^{2})$, closing an open problem in \cite{wang2016functional}, who established the LSI under precisely this condition.

Conventional methods for query autocompletion aim to predict which completed query a user will select from a list. A shortcoming of this approach is that users often do not know which query will provide the best retrieval performance on the current information retrieval system, meaning that any query autocompletion methods trained to mimic user behavior can lead to suboptimal query suggestions. To overcome this limitation, we propose a new approach that explicitly optimizes the query suggestions for downstream retrieval performance. We formulate this as a problem of ranking a set of rankings, where each query suggestion is represented by the downstream item ranking it produces. We then present a learning method that ranks query suggestions by the quality of their item rankings. The algorithm is based on a counterfactual learning approach that is able to leverage feedback on the items (e.g., clicks, purchases) to evaluate query suggestions through an unbiased estimator, thus avoiding the assumption that users write or select optimal queries. We establish theoretical support for the proposed approach and provide learning-theoretic guarantees. We also present empirical results on publicly available datasets, and demonstrate real-world applicability using data from an online shopping store.

Much of modern learning theory has been split between two regimes: the classical offline setting, where data arrive independently, and the online setting, where data arrive adversarially. While the former model is often both computationally and statistically tractable, the latter requires no distributional assumptions. In an attempt to achieve the best of both worlds, previous work proposed the smooth online setting where each sample is drawn from an adversarially chosen distribution, which is smooth, i.e., it has a bounded density with respect to a fixed dominating measure. We provide tight bounds on the minimax regret of learning a nonparametric function class, with nearly optimal dependence on both the horizon and smoothness parameters. Furthermore, we provide the first oracle-efficient, no-regret algorithms in this setting. In particular, we propose an oracle-efficient improper algorithm whose regret achieves optimal dependence on the horizon and a proper algorithm requiring only a single oracle call per round whose regret has the optimal horizon dependence in the classification setting and is sublinear in general. Both algorithms have exponentially worse dependence on the smoothness parameter of the adversary than the minimax rate. We then prove a lower bound on the oracle complexity of any proper learning algorithm, which matches the oracle-efficient upper bounds up to a polynomial factor, thus demonstrating the existence of a statistical-computational gap in smooth online learning. Finally, we apply our results to the contextual bandit setting to show that if a function class is learnable in the classical setting, then there is an oracle-efficient, no-regret algorithm for contextual bandits in the case that contexts arrive in a smooth manner.

We present novel techniques and methodology for unresolved photometric characterization of low-Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites. With the Pomenis LEO Satellite Photometric Survey our team has made over 14,000 observations of Starlink and OneWeb satellites to measure their apparent brightness. From the apparent brightness of each satellite, we calculate a new metric: the effective albedo, which quantifies the specularity of the reflecting satellite. Unlike stellar magnitude units, the effective albedo accounts for apparent range and phase angle and enables direct comparison of different satellites. Mapping the effective albedo from multiple observations across the sky produces an all-sky photometric signature which is distinct for each population of satellites, including the various sub-models of Starlink satellites. Space Situational Awareness (SSA) practitioners can use all-sky photometric signatures to differentiate populations of satellites, compare their reflection characteristics, identify unknown satellites, and find anomalous members. To test the efficacy of all-sky signatures for satellite identification, we applied a machine learning classifier algorithm which correctly identified the majority of satellites based solely on the effective albedo metric and with as few as one observation per individual satellite. Our new method of LEO satellite photometric characterization requires no prior knowledge of the satellite's properties and is readily scalable to large numbers of satellites such as those expected with developing communications mega-constellations., Comment: 11 pages, 8 figures, Proceedings of the 2022 AMOS Conference

We study the striking case of a blue narrow stream with a possible globular cluster-like progenitor around the Milky Way-size galaxy NGC 7241 and its foreground dwarf companion. We present a follow-up spectroscopic study of this stream based on data taken with the MEGARA instrument at the 10.4-m Gran Telescopio Canarias using the integral field spectroscopy mode. Although our data suggest that this compact object in the stream is actually a foreground Milky Way halo star, we detect emission lines overlapping a less compact, bluer and fainter blob of the stream that is clearly visible in both ultra-violet and optical deep images. From its heliocentric systemic radial velocity derived from the [OIII] 5007A lines (V_syst= 1548.58+/-1.80 km\s^-1) and new UV and optical broad-band photometry, we conclude that this over-density could be the actual core of the stream, with an absolute magnitude of Mg~ -10 and a g-r = 0.08+/- 0.11, consistent with a remnant of a low-mass dwarf satellite undergoing a current episode of star formation. From the width of the stream, we calculate that the progenitor mass is between 6.4 x 10^6 Mo -2.7 x 10^7 Mo, which is typical of a dwarf galaxy. These estimates suggest that this is one of the lowest mass streams detected so far beyond the Local Group. We find that blue stellar streams containing star formation regions are commonly predicted by high-resolution cosmological simulations of galaxies lighter than the Milky Way. This scenario is consistent with the processes explaining the bursty star formation history of some dwarf satellites, which are followed by a gas depletion and a fast quenching once they enter within the virial radius of their host galaxies. Thus, it is likely that the stream's progenitor is suffering a star-formation burst comparable to those that have shaped the star-formation history of several Local Group dwarfs in the last few Gigayears., Comment: 13 pages, 5 figures, submitted to MNRAS

Measuring photometric brightness is a common tool for characterizaing satellites. However, characterizing satellite mega-constellations and their impact on astronomy research requires a new approach and methodology. A few measurements of singular satellites are not sufficient to fully describe a mega-constellation and assess its impact on modern astronomical systems. Characterizing the brightness of a satellite mega-constellation requires a comprehensive measurement program conducting numerous observations over the entire set of critical variables. Utilizing Pomenis, a small-aperture and wide field-of-view astrograph, we developed an automated observing program to measure the photometric brightness of mega-constellation satellites. We report the summary results of 7631 separate observations and the statistical distribution of brightness for the Starlink, visored-Starlink, Starlink DarkSat, and OneWeb satellites., Comment: 26 pages, 24 figures, Proceedings of the 2021 AMOS Conference

In this work we study the striking case of a narrow blue stream around the NGC 7241 galaxy and its foreground dwarf companion. We want to figure out if the stream was generated by tidal interaction with NGC 7241 or it first interacted with the foreground dwarf companion and later both fell together towards NGC 7241. We use four sets of observations, including a follow-up spectroscopic study with the MEGARA instrument at the 10.4-m Gran Telescopio Canarias. Our data suggest that the compact object we detected in the stream is a foreground Milky Way halo star. Near this compact object we detect emission lines overlapping a bluer and fainter blob of the stream that is clearly visible in both ultra-violet and optical deep images. From its heliocentric systemic radial velocity (Vsyst= 1548.58+/-1.80 km s^-1) and new UV and optical broad-band photometry, we conclude that this over-density could be the actual core of the stream, with an absolute magnitude of M_g ~ -10 and a (g-r) = 0.08 +/- 0.11, consistent with a remnant of a low-mass dwarf satellite undergoing a current episode of star formation. From the width of the stream and assuming a circular orbit, we calculate that the progenitor mass can be the typical of a dwarf galaxy, but it could also be substantially lower if the stream is on a very radial orbit or it was created by tidal interaction with the companion dwarf instead of with NGC 7241. Finally, we find that blue stellar streams containing star formation regions are commonly predicted by high-resolution cosmological simulations of galaxies lighter than the Milky Way. This scenario is consistent with the processes explaining the bursty star formation history of some dwarf satellites, which are followed by a gas depletion and a fast quenching once they enter within the virial radius of their host galaxies for the first time., Comment: 12 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysics

Measuring photometric brightness is a common tool for characterizaing satellites. However, characterizing satellite mega-constellations and their impact on astronomy research requires a new approach and methodology. A few measurements of singular satellites are not sufficient to fully describe a mega-constellation and assess its impact on modern astronomical systems. Characterizing the brightness of a satellite mega-constellation requires a comprehensive measurement program conducting numerous observations over the entire set of critical variables. Utilizing Pomenis, a small-aperture and wide field-of-view astrograph, we developed an automated observing program to measure the photometric brightness of mega-constellation satellites. We report the summary results of 7631 separate observations and the statistical distribution of brightness for the Starlink, visored-Starlink, Starlink DarkSat, and OneWeb satellites., Comment: 26 pages, 24 figures, Proceedings of the 2021 AMOS Conference

It has long been thought that high-dimensional data encountered in many practical machine learning tasks have low-dimensional structure, i.e., the manifold hypothesis holds. A natural question, thus, is to estimate the intrinsic dimension of a given population distribution from a finite sample. We introduce a new estimator of the intrinsic dimension and provide finite sample, non-asymptotic guarantees. We then apply our techniques to get new sample complexity bounds for Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) depending only on the intrinsic dimension of the data.

We introduce the technique of generic chaining and majorizing measures for controlling sequential Rademacher complexity. We relate majorizing measures to the notion of fractional covering numbers, which we show to be dominated in terms of sequential scale-sensitive dimensions in a horizon-independent way, and, under additional complexity assumptions establish a tight control on worst-case sequential Rademacher complexity in terms of the integral of sequential scale-sensitive dimension. Finally, we establish a tight contraction inequality for worst-case sequential Rademacher complexity. The above constitutes the resolution of a number of outstanding open problems in extending the classical theory of empirical processes to the sequential case, and, in turn, establishes sharp results for online learning.

Recently, the task of image generation has attracted much attention. In particular, the recent empirical successes of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique of Langevin Dynamics have prompted a number of theoretical advances; despite this, several outstanding problems remain. First, the Langevin Dynamics is run in very high dimension on a nonconvex landscape; in the worst case, due to the NP-hardness of nonconvex optimization, it is thought that Langevin Dynamics mixes only in time exponential in the dimension. In this work, we demonstrate how the manifold hypothesis allows for the considerable reduction of mixing time, from exponential in the ambient dimension to depending only on the (much smaller) intrinsic dimension of the data. Second, the high dimension of the sampling space significantly hurts the performance of Langevin Dynamics; we leverage a multi-scale approach to help ameliorate this issue and observe that this multi-resolution algorithm allows for a trade-off between image quality and computational expense in generation.

We study convergence of a generative modeling method that first estimates the score function of the distribution using Denoising Auto-Encoders (DAE) or Denoising Score Matching (DSM) and then employs Langevin diffusion for sampling. We show that both DAE and DSM provide estimates of the score of the Gaussian smoothed population density, allowing us to apply the machinery of Empirical Processes. We overcome the challenge of relying only on $L^2$ bounds on the score estimation error and provide finite-sample bounds in the Wasserstein distance between the law of the population distribution and the law of this sampling scheme. We then apply our results to the homotopy method of arXiv:1907.05600 and provide theoretical justification for its empirical success.