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This paper presents an intramethod ensemble for coronal hole (CH) detection based on the Active Contours Without Edges (ACWE) segmentation algorithm. The purpose of this ensemble is to develop a confidence map that defines, for all on disk regions of a Solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) image, the likelihood that each region belongs to a CH based on that region's proximity to, and homogeneity with, the core of identified CH regions. CHs are regions of open magnetic field lines, resulting in high speed solar wind. Accurate detection of CHs is vital for space weather prediction. By relying on region homogeneity, and not intensity (which can vary due to various factors including line of sight changes and stray light from nearby bright regions), to define the final confidence of any given region, this ensemble is able to provide robust, consistent delineations of the CH regions. Using the metrics of global consistency error (GCE), local consistency error (LCE), intersection over union (IOU), and the structural similarity index measure (SSIM), the method is shown to be robust to different spatial resolutions and different intensity resolutions. Furthermore, using the same metrics, the method is shown to be robust across short timescales, indicating self-consistent segmentations. Finally, the accuracy of the segmentations and confidence maps are validated by considering the skewness (i.e., unipolarity) of the underlying magnetic field.

In this dataset we provide a comprehensive collection of magnetograms (images quantifying the strength of the magnetic field) from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). The dataset incorporates data from three sources and provides SDO Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) magnetograms of solar active regions (regions of large magnetic flux, generally the source of eruptive events) as well as labels of corresponding flaring activity. This dataset will be useful for image analysis or solar physics research related to magnetic structure, its evolution over time, and its relation to solar flares. The dataset will be of interest to those researchers investigating automated solar flare prediction methods, including supervised and unsupervised machine learning (classical and deep), binary and multi-class classification, and regression. This dataset is a minimally processed, user configurable dataset of consistently sized images of solar active regions that can serve as a benchmark dataset for solar flare prediction research.

In this dataset we provide a comprehensive collection of magnetograms (images quantifying the strength of the magnetic field) from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). The dataset incorporates data from three sources and provides SDO Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) magnetograms of solar active regions (regions of large magnetic flux, generally the source of eruptive events) as well as labels of corresponding flaring activity. This dataset will be useful for image analysis or solar physics research related to magnetic structure, its evolution over time, and its relation to solar flares. The dataset will be of interest to those researchers investigating automated solar flare prediction methods, including supervised and unsupervised machine learning (classical and deep), binary and multi-class classification, and regression. This dataset is a minimally processed, user configurable dataset of consistently sized images of solar active regions that can serve as a benchmark dataset for solar flare prediction research.

Studying the solar system and especially the Sun relies on the data gathered daily from space missions. These missions are data-intensive and compressing this data to make them efficiently transferable to the ground station is a twofold decision to make. Stronger compression methods, by distorting the data, can increase data throughput at the cost of accuracy which could affect scientific analysis of the data. On the other hand, preserving subtle details in the compressed data requires a high amount of data to be transferred, reducing the desired gains from compression. In this work, we propose a neural network-based lossy compression method to be used in NASA's data-intensive imagery missions. We chose NASA's SDO mission which transmits 1.4 terabytes of data each day as a proof of concept for the proposed algorithm. In this work, we propose an adversarially trained neural network, equipped with local and non-local attention modules to capture both the local and global structure of the image resulting in a better trade-off in rate-distortion (RD) compared to conventional hand-engineered codecs. The RD variational autoencoder used in this work is jointly trained with a channel-dependent entropy model as a shared prior between the analysis and synthesis transforms to make the entropy coding of the latent code more effective. Our neural image compression algorithm outperforms currently-in-use and state-of-the-art codecs such as JPEG and JPEG-2000 in terms of the RD performance when compressing extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) data. As a proof of concept for use of this algorithm in SDO data analysis, we have performed coronal hole (CH) detection using our compressed images, and generated consistent segmentations, even at a compression rate of $\sim0.1$ bits per pixel (compared to 8 bits per pixel on the original data) using EUV data from SDO., Comment: Accepted for publication in IEEE Transactions on Aerospace and Electronic Systems (TAES). arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2210.06478

The Virtual Telescope for X-ray Observations (VTXO) will use lightweight Phase Fresnel Lenses (PFLs) in a virtual X-ray telescope with $\sim$1 km focal length and with $\sim$50 milli-arcsecond angular resolution. VTXO is formed by using precision formation flying of two SmallSats: a smaller OpticsSat that houses the PFLs and navigation beacons while a larger DetectorSat contains an X-ray camera, a precision start tracker, and the propulsion for the formation flying. The baseline flight dynamics uses a highly elliptical supersynchronous orbit allow the formation to hold in an inertial frame around the 90,000 km apogee for 10 hours of the 32.5 hour orbit with nearly a year mission lifetime. VTXO's fine angular resolution enables measuring the environments close to the central engines of bright compact X-ray sources. This X-ray imaging capability allows for the study of the effects of dust scattering near to the central objects such as Cyg X-3 and GX 5-1, for the search for jet structure near to the compact object in X-ray novae such as Cyg X-1 and GRS 1915+105, and for the search for structure in the termination shock of in the Crab pulsar wind nebula. The VTXO SmallSat and instrument designs, mission parameters, and science performance are described. VTXO development was supported as one of the selected 2018 NASA Astrophysics SmallSat Study (AS$^3$) missions., Comment: 6 pages, 7 figures, corrected version, Proceedings Volume 11444, Space Telescopes and Instrumentation 2020: Ultraviolet to Gamma Ray; 114447V (2020). arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2006.12174

We study the photospheric magnetic field of ~2000 active regions in solar cycle 23 to search for parameters indicative of energy build-up and subsequent release as a solar flare. We extract three sets of parameters: snapshots in space and time- total flux, magnetic gradients, and neutral lines; evolution in time- flux evolution; structures at multiple size scales- wavelet analysis. This combines pattern recognition and classification techniques via a relevance vector machine to determine whether a region will flare. We consider classification performance using all 38 extracted features and several feature subsets. Classification performance is quantified using both the true positive rate and the true negative rate. Additionally, we compute the true skill score which provides an equal weighting to true positive rate and true negative rate and the Heidke skill score to allow comparison to other flare forecasting work. We obtain a true skill score of ~0.5 for any predictive time window in the range 2-24hr, with a TPR of ~0.8 and a TNR of ~0.7. These values do not appear to depend on the time window, although the Heidke skill score (<0.5) does. Features relating to snapshots of the distribution of magnetic gradients show the best predictive ability over all predictive time windows. Other gradient-related features and the instantaneous power at various wavelet scales also feature in the top five ranked features in predictive power. While the photospheric magnetic field governs the coronal non-potentiality (and likelihood of flaring), photospheric magnetic field alone is not sufficient to determine this uniquely. Furthermore we are only measuring proxies of the magnetic energy build up. We still lack observational details on why energy is released at any particular point in time. We may have discovered the natural limit of the accuracy of flare predictions from these large scale studies.

We study the prediction of solar flare size and time-to-flare using 38 features describing magnetic complexity of the photospheric magnetic field. This work uses support vector regression to formulate a mapping from the 38-dimensional feature space to a continuous-valued label vector representing flare size or time-to-flare. When we consider flaring regions only, we find an average error in estimating flare size of approximately half a \emph{geostationary operational environmental satellite} (\emph{GOES}) class. When we additionally consider non-flaring regions, we find an increased average error of approximately 3/4 a \emph{GOES} class. We also consider thresholding the regressed flare size for the experiment containing both flaring and non-flaring regions and find a true positive rate of 0.69 and a true negative rate of 0.86 for flare prediction. The results for both of these size regression experiments are consistent across a wide range of predictive time windows, indicating that the magnetic complexity features may be persistent in appearance long before flare activity. This is supported by our larger error rates of some 40 hr in the time-to-flare regression problem. The 38 magnetic complexity features considered here appear to have discriminative potential for flare size, but their persistence in time makes them less discriminative for the time-to-flare problem., Comment: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0004-637X/812/1/51/meta

We study the prediction of solar flare size and time-to-flare using 38 features describing magnetic complexity of the photospheric magnetic field. This work uses support vector regression to formulate a mapping from the 38-dimensional feature space to a continuous-valued label vector representing flare size or time-to-flare. When we consider flaring regions only, we find an average error in estimating flare size of approximately half a \emph{geostationary operational environmental satellite} (\emph{GOES}) class. When we additionally consider non-flaring regions, we find an increased average error of approximately 3/4 a \emph{GOES} class. We also consider thresholding the regressed flare size for the experiment containing both flaring and non-flaring regions and find a true positive rate of 0.69 and a true negative rate of 0.86 for flare prediction. The results for both of these size regression experiments are consistent across a wide range of predictive time windows, indicating that the magnetic complexity features may be persistent in appearance long before flare activity. This is supported by our larger error rates of some 40 hr in the time-to-flare regression problem. The 38 magnetic complexity features considered here appear to have discriminative potential for flare size, but their persistence in time makes them less discriminative for the time-to-flare problem., Comment: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0004-637X/812/1/51/meta

We study the photospheric magnetic field of ~2000 active regions in solar cycle 23 to search for parameters indicative of energy build-up and subsequent release as a solar flare. We extract three sets of parameters: snapshots in space and time- total flux, magnetic gradients, and neutral lines; evolution in time- flux evolution; structures at multiple size scales- wavelet analysis. This combines pattern recognition and classification techniques via a relevance vector machine to determine whether a region will flare. We consider classification performance using all 38 extracted features and several feature subsets. Classification performance is quantified using both the true positive rate and the true negative rate. Additionally, we compute the true skill score which provides an equal weighting to true positive rate and true negative rate and the Heidke skill score to allow comparison to other flare forecasting work. We obtain a true skill score of ~0.5 for any predictive time window in the range 2-24hr, with a TPR of ~0.8 and a TNR of ~0.7. These values do not appear to depend on the time window, although the Heidke skill score (<0.5) does. Features relating to snapshots of the distribution of magnetic gradients show the best predictive ability over all predictive time windows. Other gradient-related features and the instantaneous power at various wavelet scales also feature in the top five ranked features in predictive power. While the photospheric magnetic field governs the coronal non-potentiality (and likelihood of flaring), photospheric magnetic field alone is not sufficient to determine this uniquely. Furthermore we are only measuring proxies of the magnetic energy build up. We still lack observational details on why energy is released at any particular point in time. We may have discovered the natural limit of the accuracy of flare predictions from these large scale studies.