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1. Knowledge co-production for decision-making in human-natural systems under uncertainty

Author

Moallemi, Enayat A., Zare, Fateme, Hebinck, Aniek, Szetey, Katrina, Molina-Perez, Edmundo, Zyngier, Romy L., Hadjikakou, Michalis, Kwakkel, Jan, Haasnoot, Marjolijn, Miller, Kelly K., Groves, David G., Leith, Peat, Bryan, Brett A., Moallemi, Enayat A., Zare, Fateme, Hebinck, Aniek, Szetey, Katrina, Molina-Perez, Edmundo, Zyngier, Romy L., Hadjikakou, Michalis, Kwakkel, Jan, Haasnoot, Marjolijn, Miller, Kelly K., Groves, David G., Leith, Peat, and Bryan, Brett A.

Abstract

Decision-making under uncertainty is important for managing human-natural systems in a changing world. A major source of uncertainty is linked to the multi-actor settings of decisions with poorly understood values, complex relationships, and conflicting management approaches. Despite general agreement across disciplines on co-producing knowledge for viable and inclusive outcomes in a multi-actor context, there is still limited conceptual clarity and no systematic understanding on what co-production means in decision-making under uncertainty and how it can be approached. Here, we use content analysis and clustering to systematically analyse 50 decision-making cases with multiple time and spatial scales across 26 countries and in 9 different sectors in the last decade to serve two aims. The first is to synthesise the key recurring strategies that underpin high quality decision co-production across many cases of diverse features. The second is to identify important deficits and opportunities to leverage existing strategies towards flourishing co-production in support of decision-making. We find that four general strategies emerge centred around: promoting innovation for robust and equitable decisions; broadening the span of co-production across interacting systems; fostering social learning and inclusive participation; and improving pathways to impact. Additionally, five key areas that should be addressed to improve decision co-production are identified in relation to: participation diversity; collaborative action; power relationships; governance inclusivity; and transformative change. Characterising the emergent strategies and their key areas for improvement can help guide future works towards more pluralistic and integrated science and practice.

Published
2023

2. How can diverse national food and land-use priorities be reconciled with global sustainability targets? Lessons from the FABLE initiative

Author

Mosnier, Aline, Mosnier, Aline, Schmidt-Traub, Guido, Obersteiner, Michael, Jones, Sarah, Javalera-Rincon, Valeria, DeClerck, Fabrice, Thomson, Marcus, Sperling, Frank, Harrison, Paula, Pérez-Guzmán, Katya, McCord, Gordon Carlos, Navarro-Garcia, Javier, Marcos-Martinez, Raymundo, Wu, Grace C, Poncet, Jordan, Douzal, Clara, Steinhauser, Jan, Monjeau, Adrian, Frank, Federico, Lehtonen, Heikki, Rämö, Janne, Leach, Nicholas, Gonzalez-Abraham, Charlotte E, Ghosh, Ranjan Kumar, Jha, Chandan, Singh, Vartika, Bai, Zhaohai, Jin, Xinpeng, Ma, Lin, Strokov, Anton, Potashnikov, Vladimir, Orduña-Cabrera, Fernando, Neubauer, Rudolf, Diaz, Maria, Penescu, Liviu, Domínguez, Efraín Antonio, Chavarro, John, Pena, Andres, Basnet, Shyam, Fetzer, Ingo, Baker, Justin, Zerriffi, Hisham, Reyes Gallardo, René, Bryan, Brett Anthony, Hadjikakou, Michalis, Lotze-Campen, Hermann, Stevanovic, Miodrag, Smith, Alison, Costa, Wanderson, Habiburrachman, AHF, Immanuel, Gito, Selomane, Odirilwe, Daloz, Anne-Sophie, Andrew, Robbie, van Oort, Bob, Imanirareba, Dative, Molla, Kiflu Gedefe, Woldeyes, Firew Bekele, Soterroni, Aline C, Scarabello, Marluce, Ramos, Fernando M, Boer, Rizaldi, Winarni, Nurul Laksmi, Supriatna, Jatna, Low, Wai Sern, Fan, Andrew Chiah Howe, Naramabuye, François Xavier, Niyitanga, Fidèle, Olguín, Marcela, Popp, Alexander, Rasche, Livia, Godfray, Charles, Hall, Jim W, Grundy, Mike J, Wang, Xiaoxi, Mosnier, Aline, Mosnier, Aline, Schmidt-Traub, Guido, Obersteiner, Michael, Jones, Sarah, Javalera-Rincon, Valeria, DeClerck, Fabrice, Thomson, Marcus, Sperling, Frank, Harrison, Paula, Pérez-Guzmán, Katya, McCord, Gordon Carlos, Navarro-Garcia, Javier, Marcos-Martinez, Raymundo, Wu, Grace C, Poncet, Jordan, Douzal, Clara, Steinhauser, Jan, Monjeau, Adrian, Frank, Federico, Lehtonen, Heikki, Rämö, Janne, Leach, Nicholas, Gonzalez-Abraham, Charlotte E, Ghosh, Ranjan Kumar, Jha, Chandan, Singh, Vartika, Bai, Zhaohai, Jin, Xinpeng, Ma, Lin, Strokov, Anton, Potashnikov, Vladimir, Orduña-Cabrera, Fernando, Neubauer, Rudolf, Diaz, Maria, Penescu, Liviu, Domínguez, Efraín Antonio, Chavarro, John, Pena, Andres, Basnet, Shyam, Fetzer, Ingo, Baker, Justin, Zerriffi, Hisham, Reyes Gallardo, René, Bryan, Brett Anthony, Hadjikakou, Michalis, Lotze-Campen, Hermann, Stevanovic, Miodrag, Smith, Alison, Costa, Wanderson, Habiburrachman, AHF, Immanuel, Gito, Selomane, Odirilwe, Daloz, Anne-Sophie, Andrew, Robbie, van Oort, Bob, Imanirareba, Dative, Molla, Kiflu Gedefe, Woldeyes, Firew Bekele, Soterroni, Aline C, Scarabello, Marluce, Ramos, Fernando M, Boer, Rizaldi, Winarni, Nurul Laksmi, Supriatna, Jatna, Low, Wai Sern, Fan, Andrew Chiah Howe, Naramabuye, François Xavier, Niyitanga, Fidèle, Olguín, Marcela, Popp, Alexander, Rasche, Livia, Godfray, Charles, Hall, Jim W, Grundy, Mike J, and Wang, Xiaoxi

Abstract

There is an urgent need for countries to transition their national food and land-use systems toward food and nutritional security, climate stability, and environmental integrity. How can countries satisfy their demands while jointly delivering the required transformative change to achieve global sustainability targets? Here, we present a collaborative approach developed with the FABLE—Food, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land, and Energy—Consortium to reconcile both global and national elements for developing national food and land-use system pathways. This approach includes three key features: (1) global targets, (2) country-driven multi-objective pathways, and (3) multiple iterations of pathway refinement informed by both national and international impacts. This approach strengthens policy coherence and highlights where greater national and international ambition is needed to achieve global goals (e.g., the SDGs). We discuss how this could be used to support future climate and biodiversity negotiations and what further developments would be needed.

Published
2023

3. How can diverse national food and land-use priorities be reconciled with global sustainability targets? Lessons from the FABLE initiative

Author

Mosnier, Aline, Schmidt-Traub, Guido, Obersteiner, Michael, Jones, Sarah, Javalera-Rincon, Valeria, DeClerck, Fabrice, Thomson, Marcus, Sperling, Frank, Harrison, Paula, Pérez-Guzmán, Katya, McCord, Gordon Carlos, Navarro-Garcia, Javier, Marcos-Martinez, Raymundo, Wu, Grace C., Poncet, Jordan, Douzal, Clara, Steinhauser, Jan, Monjeau, Adrian, Frank, Federico, Lehtonen, Heikki, Rämö, Janne, Leach, Nicholas, Gonzalez-Abraham, Charlotte E., Ghosh, Ranjan Kumar, Jha, Chandan, Singh, Vartika, Bai, Zhaohai, Jin, Xinpeng, Ma, Lin, Strokov, Anton, Potashnikov, Vladimir, Orduña-Cabrera, Fernando, Neubauer, Rudolf, Diaz, Maria, Penescu, Liviu, Domínguez, Efraín Antonio, Chavarro, John, Pena, Andres, Basnet, Shyam, Fetzer, Ingo, Baker, Justin, Zerriffi, Hisham, Reyes Gallardo, René, Bryan, Brett Anthony, Hadjikakou, Michalis, Lotze-Campen, Hermann, Stevanovic, Miodrag, Smith, Alison, Costa, Wanderson, Habiburrachman, A.H.F., Immanuel, Gito, Selomane, Odirilwe, Daloz, Anne-Sophie, Andrew, Robbie, van Oort, Bob, Imanirareba, Dative, Molla, Kiflu Gedefe, Woldeyes, Firew Bekele, Soterroni, Aline C., Scarabello, Marluce, Ramos, Fernando M., Boer, Rizaldi, Winarni, Nurul Laksmi, Supriatna, Jatna, Low, Wai Sern, Fan, Andrew Chiah Howe, Naramabuye, François Xavier, Niyitanga, Fidèle, Olguín, Marcela, Popp, Alexander, Rasche, Livia, Godfray, Charles, Hall, Jim W., Grundy, Mike J., Wang, Xiaoxi, Mosnier, Aline, Schmidt-Traub, Guido, Obersteiner, Michael, Jones, Sarah, Javalera-Rincon, Valeria, DeClerck, Fabrice, Thomson, Marcus, Sperling, Frank, Harrison, Paula, Pérez-Guzmán, Katya, McCord, Gordon Carlos, Navarro-Garcia, Javier, Marcos-Martinez, Raymundo, Wu, Grace C., Poncet, Jordan, Douzal, Clara, Steinhauser, Jan, Monjeau, Adrian, Frank, Federico, Lehtonen, Heikki, Rämö, Janne, Leach, Nicholas, Gonzalez-Abraham, Charlotte E., Ghosh, Ranjan Kumar, Jha, Chandan, Singh, Vartika, Bai, Zhaohai, Jin, Xinpeng, Ma, Lin, Strokov, Anton, Potashnikov, Vladimir, Orduña-Cabrera, Fernando, Neubauer, Rudolf, Diaz, Maria, Penescu, Liviu, Domínguez, Efraín Antonio, Chavarro, John, Pena, Andres, Basnet, Shyam, Fetzer, Ingo, Baker, Justin, Zerriffi, Hisham, Reyes Gallardo, René, Bryan, Brett Anthony, Hadjikakou, Michalis, Lotze-Campen, Hermann, Stevanovic, Miodrag, Smith, Alison, Costa, Wanderson, Habiburrachman, A.H.F., Immanuel, Gito, Selomane, Odirilwe, Daloz, Anne-Sophie, Andrew, Robbie, van Oort, Bob, Imanirareba, Dative, Molla, Kiflu Gedefe, Woldeyes, Firew Bekele, Soterroni, Aline C., Scarabello, Marluce, Ramos, Fernando M., Boer, Rizaldi, Winarni, Nurul Laksmi, Supriatna, Jatna, Low, Wai Sern, Fan, Andrew Chiah Howe, Naramabuye, François Xavier, Niyitanga, Fidèle, Olguín, Marcela, Popp, Alexander, Rasche, Livia, Godfray, Charles, Hall, Jim W., Grundy, Mike J., and Wang, Xiaoxi

Abstract

There is an urgent need for countries to transition their national food and land-use systems toward food and nutritional security, climate stability, and environmental integrity. How can countries satisfy their demands while jointly delivering the required transformative change to achieve global sustainability targets? Here, we present a collaborative approach developed with the FABLE—Food, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land, and Energy—Consortium to reconcile both global and national elements for developing national food and land-use system pathways. This approach includes three key features: (1) global targets, (2) country-driven multi-objective pathways, and (3) multiple iterations of pathway refinement informed by both national and international impacts. This approach strengthens policy coherence and highlights where greater national and international ambition is needed to achieve global goals (e.g., the SDGs). We discuss how this could be used to support future climate and biodiversity negotiations and what further developments would be needed.

Published
2023

4. Knowledge co-production for decision-making in human-natural systems under uncertainty

Author

Geomorfologie, Moallemi, Enayat A., Zare, Fateme, Hebinck, Aniek, Szetey, Katrina, Molina-Perez, Edmundo, Zyngier, Romy L., Hadjikakou, Michalis, Kwakkel, Jan, Haasnoot, Marjolijn, Miller, Kelly K., Groves, David G., Leith, Peat, Bryan, Brett A., Geomorfologie, Moallemi, Enayat A., Zare, Fateme, Hebinck, Aniek, Szetey, Katrina, Molina-Perez, Edmundo, Zyngier, Romy L., Hadjikakou, Michalis, Kwakkel, Jan, Haasnoot, Marjolijn, Miller, Kelly K., Groves, David G., Leith, Peat, and Bryan, Brett A.

Published
2023

5. MOO-GAPS : A multi-objective optimization model for global animal production and sustainability

Author

C. Castonguay, Adam, Polasky, Stephen, H. Holden, Matthew, Herrero, Mario, Chang, Jinfeng, Mason-D'Croz, Daniel, Godde, Cecile, Lee, Katie, A. Bryan, Brett, Gerber, James, Game, Edward T., McDonald-Madden, Eve, C. Castonguay, Adam, Polasky, Stephen, H. Holden, Matthew, Herrero, Mario, Chang, Jinfeng, Mason-D'Croz, Daniel, Godde, Cecile, Lee, Katie, A. Bryan, Brett, Gerber, James, Game, Edward T., and McDonald-Madden, Eve

Abstract

Agricultural and livestock production involves significant trade-offs between multiple sustainable development goals, including reducing hunger and poverty, and reducing emissions of greenhouse gasses. Here we describe a multi-objective optimization tool for livestock production to evaluate trade-offs among environmental and economic objectives with high spatial granularity and the capability to be aggregated to national or global scales. We illustrate the use of this tool analysing how and where to produce beef to optimize the weighted sum of environmental and economic objectives, in this case minimizing greenhouse gas emissions and minimizing costs of production. We present how the outputs of this model can inform a sustainable transition of the industry and policy decisions, with a focus on inherent trade-offs. By comparing optimal production with current production, we highlight the potential environmental and economic efficiencies that can be made by changing the location or methods of production. As such, this tool provides a platform to identify trade-offs and synergies among multiple diverse sustainability goals, critical in the livestock and agricultural sectors.

Published
2023

6. Navigating sustainability trade-offs in global beef production

Author

Castonguay, Adam C., Polasky, Stephen, H. Holden, Matthew, Herrero, Mario, Mason-D’Croz, Daniel, Godde, Cecile, Chang, Jinfeng, Gerber, James, Witt, G.B., Game, Edward T., A. Bryan, Brett, Wintle, Brendan, Lee, Katie, Bal, Payal, McDonald-Madden, Eve, Castonguay, Adam C., Polasky, Stephen, H. Holden, Matthew, Herrero, Mario, Mason-D’Croz, Daniel, Godde, Cecile, Chang, Jinfeng, Gerber, James, Witt, G.B., Game, Edward T., A. Bryan, Brett, Wintle, Brendan, Lee, Katie, Bal, Payal, and McDonald-Madden, Eve

Abstract

Beef production represents a complex global sustainability challenge including reducing poverty and hunger and the need for climate action. Understanding the trade-offs between these goals at a global scale and at resolutions to inform land use is critical for a global transition towards sustainable beef. Here we optimize global beef production at fine spatial resolution and identify trade-offs between economic and environmental objectives interpretable to global sustainability ambitions. We reveal that shifting production areas, compositions of current feeds and informed land restoration enable large emissions reductions of 34–85% annually (612–1,506 MtCO2e yr−1) without increasing costs. Even further reductions are possible but come at a trade-off with costs of production. Critically our approach can help to identify such trade-offs among multiple sustainability goals, produces fine-resolution mapping to inform required land-use change and does so at the scale necessary to shift towards a globally sustainable industry for beef and to sectors beyond.

Published
2023

7. A global land cover training dataset from 1984 to 2020

Author

Stanimirova, Radost, Tarrio, Katelyn, Turlej, Konrad, McAvoy, Kristina, Stonebrook, Sophia, Hu, Kai Ting, Arévalo, Paulo, Bullock, Eric L., Zhang, Yingtong, Woodcock, Curtis E., Olofsson, Pontus, Zhu, Zhe, Barber, Christopher P., Souza, Carlos M., Chen, Shijuan, Wang, Jonathan A., Mensah, Foster, Calderón-Loor, Marco, Hadjikakou, Michalis, Bryan, Brett A., Graesser, Jordan, Beyene, Dereje L., Mutasha, Brian, Siame, Sylvester, Siampale, Abel, Friedl, Mark A., Stanimirova, Radost, Tarrio, Katelyn, Turlej, Konrad, McAvoy, Kristina, Stonebrook, Sophia, Hu, Kai Ting, Arévalo, Paulo, Bullock, Eric L., Zhang, Yingtong, Woodcock, Curtis E., Olofsson, Pontus, Zhu, Zhe, Barber, Christopher P., Souza, Carlos M., Chen, Shijuan, Wang, Jonathan A., Mensah, Foster, Calderón-Loor, Marco, Hadjikakou, Michalis, Bryan, Brett A., Graesser, Jordan, Beyene, Dereje L., Mutasha, Brian, Siame, Sylvester, Siampale, Abel, and Friedl, Mark A.

Abstract

State-of-the-art cloud computing platforms such as Google Earth Engine (GEE) enable regional-to-global land cover and land cover change mapping with machine learning algorithms. However, collection of high-quality training data, which is necessary for accurate land cover mapping, remains costly and labor-intensive. To address this need, we created a global database of nearly 2 million training units spanning the period from 1984 to 2020 for seven primary and nine secondary land cover classes. Our training data collection approach leveraged GEE and machine learning algorithms to ensure data quality and biogeographic representation. We sampled the spectral-temporal feature space from Landsat imagery to efficiently allocate training data across global ecoregions and incorporated publicly available and collaborator-provided datasets to our database. To reflect the underlying regional class distribution and post-disturbance landscapes, we strategically augmented the database. We used a machine learning-based cross-validation procedure to remove potentially mis-labeled training units. Our training database is relevant for a wide array of studies such as land cover change, agriculture, forestry, hydrology, urban development, among many others.

Published
2023

8. A global land cover training dataset from 1984 to 2020

Author

Stanimirova, Radost, Tarrio, Katelyn, Turlej, Konrad, McAvoy, Kristina, Stonebrook, Sophia, Hu, Kai Ting, Arévalo, Paulo, Bullock, Eric L., Zhang, Yingtong, Woodcock, Curtis E., Olofsson, Pontus, Zhu, Zhe, Barber, Christopher P., Souza, Carlos M., Chen, Shijuan, Wang, Jonathan A., Mensah, Foster, Calderón-Loor, Marco, Hadjikakou, Michalis, Bryan, Brett A., Graesser, Jordan, Beyene, Dereje L., Mutasha, Brian, Siame, Sylvester, Siampale, Abel, Friedl, Mark A., Stanimirova, Radost, Tarrio, Katelyn, Turlej, Konrad, McAvoy, Kristina, Stonebrook, Sophia, Hu, Kai Ting, Arévalo, Paulo, Bullock, Eric L., Zhang, Yingtong, Woodcock, Curtis E., Olofsson, Pontus, Zhu, Zhe, Barber, Christopher P., Souza, Carlos M., Chen, Shijuan, Wang, Jonathan A., Mensah, Foster, Calderón-Loor, Marco, Hadjikakou, Michalis, Bryan, Brett A., Graesser, Jordan, Beyene, Dereje L., Mutasha, Brian, Siame, Sylvester, Siampale, Abel, and Friedl, Mark A.

Abstract

State-of-the-art cloud computing platforms such as Google Earth Engine (GEE) enable regional-to-global land cover and land cover change mapping with machine learning algorithms. However, collection of high-quality training data, which is necessary for accurate land cover mapping, remains costly and labor-intensive. To address this need, we created a global database of nearly 2 million training units spanning the period from 1984 to 2020 for seven primary and nine secondary land cover classes. Our training data collection approach leveraged GEE and machine learning algorithms to ensure data quality and biogeographic representation. We sampled the spectral-temporal feature space from Landsat imagery to efficiently allocate training data across global ecoregions and incorporated publicly available and collaborator-provided datasets to our database. To reflect the underlying regional class distribution and post-disturbance landscapes, we strategically augmented the database. We used a machine learning-based cross-validation procedure to remove potentially mis-labeled training units. Our training database is relevant for a wide array of studies such as land cover change, agriculture, forestry, hydrology, urban development, among many others.

Published
2023

11. Early systems change necessary for catalyzing long-term sustainability in a post-2030 agenda

Author

Moallemi, Enayat A. (author), Eker, Sibel (author), Gao, Lei (author), Hadjikakou, Michalis (author), Liu, Qi (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Reed, Patrick M. (author), Obersteiner, Michael (author), Guo, Zhaoxia (author), Bryan, Brett A. (author), Moallemi, Enayat A. (author), Eker, Sibel (author), Gao, Lei (author), Hadjikakou, Michalis (author), Liu, Qi (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Reed, Patrick M. (author), Obersteiner, Michael (author), Guo, Zhaoxia (author), and Bryan, Brett A. (author)

Abstract

Progress to date toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) has fallen short of expectations and is unlikely to fully meet 2030 targets. Past assessments have mostly focused on short- and medium-term evaluations, thus limiting the ability to explore the longer-term effects of systemic interactions with time lags and delay. Here we undertake global systems modeling with a longer-term view than previous assessments in order to explore the drivers of sustainability progress and how they could play out by 2030, 2050, and 2100 under different development pathways and quantitative targets. We find that early planning for systems change to shift from business as usual to more sustainable pathways is important for accelerating progress toward increasingly ambitious targets by 2030, 2050, and 2100. These findings indicate the importance of adopting longer-term timeframes and pathways to ensure that the necessary pre-conditions are in place for sustainability beyond the current 2030 Agenda., Policy Analysis

Published
2022
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12. Operationalizing marketable blue carbon

Author

Macreadie, P.I., Robertson, Alistar, Spinks, Bernadette, Adams, Matthew, Atchison, Jennifer, Bell-James, Justine, Bryan, Brett, Chu, Long, Filbee-Dexter, Karen, Drake, Lauren, Duarte, Carlos, Friess, Daniel, Gonzalez, Luis Felipe, Grafton, R. Quentin, Helmstedt, Kate, Kaebernick, Melanie, Kelleway, Jeffrey, Kendrick, Gary, Kennedy, Hilary, Lovelock, Catherine, Megonigal, J. Patrick, Maher, Damien, Pidgeon, Emily, Rogers, Abbie, Sturgiss, Rob, Trevathan-Tackett, Stacey, Wartman, Melissa, Wilson, Kerrie, Rogers, Kerrylee, Macreadie, P.I., Robertson, Alistar, Spinks, Bernadette, Adams, Matthew, Atchison, Jennifer, Bell-James, Justine, Bryan, Brett, Chu, Long, Filbee-Dexter, Karen, Drake, Lauren, Duarte, Carlos, Friess, Daniel, Gonzalez, Luis Felipe, Grafton, R. Quentin, Helmstedt, Kate, Kaebernick, Melanie, Kelleway, Jeffrey, Kendrick, Gary, Kennedy, Hilary, Lovelock, Catherine, Megonigal, J. Patrick, Maher, Damien, Pidgeon, Emily, Rogers, Abbie, Sturgiss, Rob, Trevathan-Tackett, Stacey, Wartman, Melissa, Wilson, Kerrie, and Rogers, Kerrylee

Abstract

The global carbon sequestration and avoided emissions potentially achieved via blue carbon is high (∼3% of annual global greenhouse gas emissions); however, it is limited by multidisciplinary and interacting uncertainties spanning the social, governance, financial, and technological dimensions. We compiled a transdisciplinary team of experts to elucidate these challenges and identify a way forward. Key actions to enhance blue carbon as a natural climate solution include improving policy and legal arrangements to ensure equitable sharing of benefits; improving stewardship by incorporating indigenous knowledge and values; clarifying property rights; improving financial approaches and accounting tools to incorporate co-benefits; developing technological solutions for measuring blue carbon sequestration at low cost; and resolving knowledge gaps regarding blue carbon cycles. Implementing these actions and operationalizing blue carbon will achieve measurable changes to atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, provide multiple co-benefits, and address national obligations associated with international agreements.

Published
2022

13. Diversifying models for analysing global change scenarios and sustainability pathways

Author

Moallemi, Enayat A., Gao, L, Eker, S, Bryan, Brett, Moallemi, Enayat A., Gao, L, Eker, S, and Bryan, Brett

Abstract

Non-technical summary Models are increasingly used to inform the transformation of human–Earth systems towards a sustainable future, aligned with the sustainable development goals (SDGs). We argue that a greater diversity of models ought to be used for sustainability analysis to better address complexity and uncertainty. We articulate the steps to model global change socioeconomic and climatic scenarios with new models. Through these steps, we generate new scenario projections using a human–Earth system dynamics model. Our modelling brings new insights about the sensitivity of sustainability trends to future uncertainty and their alignment with or divergence from previous model-based scenario projections. Technical summary The future uncertainty and complexity of alternative socioeconomic and climatic scenarios challenge the model-based analysis of sustainable development. Obtaining robust insights requires a systematic processing of uncertainty and complexity not only in input assumptions, but also in the diversity of model structures that simulates the multisectoral dynamics of human and Earth system interactions. Here, we implement the global change scenarios, that is, the shared socioeconomic pathways and the representative concentration pathways, in a feedback-rich, integrated assessment model (IAM) of human–Earth system dynamics, called FeliX, to serve two aims: (1) to provide modellers with well-defined steps for the adoption of established scenarios in new IAMs and (2) to explore the impacts of model uncertainty and its structural complexity on the projection of these scenarios for sustainable development. Our modelling shows internally consistent scenario storylines across sectors, yet with quantitatively different realisations of these scenarios

Published
2022

16. Mapping global lake dynamics reveals the emerging roles of small lakes

Author

Pi, Xuehui, Luo, Qiuqi, Feng, Lian, Xu, Yang, Tang, Jing, Liang, Xiuyu, Ma, Enze, Cheng, Ran, Fensholt, Rasmus, Brandt, Martin, Cai, Xiaobin, Gibson, Luke, Liu, Junguo, Zheng, Chunmiao, Li, Weifeng, Bryan, Brett A., Pi, Xuehui, Luo, Qiuqi, Feng, Lian, Xu, Yang, Tang, Jing, Liang, Xiuyu, Ma, Enze, Cheng, Ran, Fensholt, Rasmus, Brandt, Martin, Cai, Xiaobin, Gibson, Luke, Liu, Junguo, Zheng, Chunmiao, Li, Weifeng, and Bryan, Brett A.

Abstract

Lakes are important natural resources and carbon gas emitters and are undergoing rapid changes worldwide in response to climate change and human activities. A detailed global characterization of lakes and their long-term dynamics does not exist, which is however crucial for evaluating the associated impacts on water availability and carbon emissions. Here, we map 3.4 million lakes on a global scale, including their explicit maximum extents and probability-weighted area changes over the past four decades. From the beginning period (1984–1999) to the end (2010–2019), the lake area increased across all six continents analyzed, with a net change of +46,278 km2, and 56% of the expansion was attributed to reservoirs. Interestingly, although small lakes (<1 km2) accounted for just 15% of the global lake area, they dominated the variability in total lake size in half of the global inland lake regions. The identified lake area increase over time led to higher lacustrine carbon emissions, mostly attributed to small lakes. Our findings illustrate the emerging roles of small lakes in regulating not only local inland water variability, but also the global trends of surface water extent and carbon emissions.

Published
2022

17. Mapping global lake dynamics reveals the emerging roles of small lakes

Author

Pi, Xuehui, Luo, Qiuqi, Feng, Lian, Xu, Yang, Tang, Jing, Liang, Xiuyu, Ma, Enze, Cheng, Ran, Fensholt, Rasmus, Brandt, Martin, Cai, Xiaobin, Gibson, Luke, Liu, Junguo, Zheng, Chunmiao, Li, Weifeng, Bryan, Brett A., Pi, Xuehui, Luo, Qiuqi, Feng, Lian, Xu, Yang, Tang, Jing, Liang, Xiuyu, Ma, Enze, Cheng, Ran, Fensholt, Rasmus, Brandt, Martin, Cai, Xiaobin, Gibson, Luke, Liu, Junguo, Zheng, Chunmiao, Li, Weifeng, and Bryan, Brett A.

Abstract

Lakes are important natural resources and carbon gas emitters and are undergoing rapid changes worldwide in response to climate change and human activities. A detailed global characterization of lakes and their long-term dynamics does not exist, which is however crucial for evaluating the associated impacts on water availability and carbon emissions. Here, we map 3.4 million lakes on a global scale, including their explicit maximum extents and probability-weighted area changes over the past four decades. From the beginning period (1984–1999) to the end (2010–2019), the lake area increased across all six continents analyzed, with a net change of +46,278 km2, and 56% of the expansion was attributed to reservoirs. Interestingly, although small lakes (<1 km2) accounted for just 15% of the global lake area, they dominated the variability in total lake size in half of the global inland lake regions. The identified lake area increase over time led to higher lacustrine carbon emissions, mostly attributed to small lakes. Our findings illustrate the emerging roles of small lakes in regulating not only local inland water variability, but also the global trends of surface water extent and carbon emissions.

Published
2022

18. Early systems change necessary for catalyzing long-term sustainability in a post-2030 agenda

Author

Moallemi, Enayat A. (author), Eker, Sibel (author), Gao, Lei (author), Hadjikakou, Michalis (author), Liu, Qi (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Reed, Patrick M. (author), Obersteiner, Michael (author), Guo, Zhaoxia (author), Bryan, Brett A. (author), Moallemi, Enayat A. (author), Eker, Sibel (author), Gao, Lei (author), Hadjikakou, Michalis (author), Liu, Qi (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Reed, Patrick M. (author), Obersteiner, Michael (author), Guo, Zhaoxia (author), and Bryan, Brett A. (author)

Abstract

Progress to date toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) has fallen short of expectations and is unlikely to fully meet 2030 targets. Past assessments have mostly focused on short- and medium-term evaluations, thus limiting the ability to explore the longer-term effects of systemic interactions with time lags and delay. Here we undertake global systems modeling with a longer-term view than previous assessments in order to explore the drivers of sustainability progress and how they could play out by 2030, 2050, and 2100 under different development pathways and quantitative targets. We find that early planning for systems change to shift from business as usual to more sustainable pathways is important for accelerating progress toward increasingly ambitious targets by 2030, 2050, and 2100. These findings indicate the importance of adopting longer-term timeframes and pathways to ensure that the necessary pre-conditions are in place for sustainability beyond the current 2030 Agenda., Policy Analysis

Published
2022
Full Text
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19. Articulating the effect of food systems innovation on the Sustainable Development Goals

Author

Herrero, Mario, Thornton, Philip K, Mason-D'Croz, Daniel, Palmer, Jeda, Bodirsky, Benjamin L, Pradhan, Prajal, Barrett, Christopher B, Benton, Tim G, Hall, Andrew, Pikaar, Ilje, Bogard, Jessica R, Bonnett, Graham D, Bryan, Brett A, Campbell, Bruce M, Christensen, Svend, Clark, Michael, Fanzo, Jessica, Godde, Cecile M, Jarvis, Andy, Loboguerrero, Ana Maria, Mathys, Alexander, McIntyre, C Lynne, Naylor, Rosamond L, Nelson, Rebecca, Obersteiner, Michael, Parodi, Alejandro, Popp, Alexander, Ricketts, Katie, Smith, Pete, Valin, Hugo, Vermeulen, Sonja J, Vervoort, Joost, van Wijk, Mark, van Zanten, Hannah HE, West, Paul C, Wood, Stephen A, Rockström, Johan, Herrero, Mario, Thornton, Philip K, Mason-D'Croz, Daniel, Palmer, Jeda, Bodirsky, Benjamin L, Pradhan, Prajal, Barrett, Christopher B, Benton, Tim G, Hall, Andrew, Pikaar, Ilje, Bogard, Jessica R, Bonnett, Graham D, Bryan, Brett A, Campbell, Bruce M, Christensen, Svend, Clark, Michael, Fanzo, Jessica, Godde, Cecile M, Jarvis, Andy, Loboguerrero, Ana Maria, Mathys, Alexander, McIntyre, C Lynne, Naylor, Rosamond L, Nelson, Rebecca, Obersteiner, Michael, Parodi, Alejandro, Popp, Alexander, Ricketts, Katie, Smith, Pete, Valin, Hugo, Vermeulen, Sonja J, Vervoort, Joost, van Wijk, Mark, van Zanten, Hannah HE, West, Paul C, Wood, Stephen A, and Rockström, Johan

Abstract

Food system innovations will be instrumental to achieving multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, major innovation breakthroughs can trigger profound and disruptive changes, leading to simultaneous and interlinked reconfigurations of multiple parts of the global food system. The emergence of new technologies or social solutions, therefore, have very different impact profiles, with favourable consequences for some SDGs and unintended adverse side-effects for others. Stand-alone innovations seldom achieve positive outcomes over multiple sustainability dimensions. Instead, they should be embedded as part of systemic changes that facilitate the implementation of the SDGs. Emerging trade-offs need to be intentionally addressed to achieve true sustainability, particularly those involving social aspects like inequality in its many forms, social justice, and strong institutions, which remain challenging. Trade-offs with undesirable consequences are manageable through the development of well planned transition pathways, careful monitoring of key indicators, and through the implementation of transparent science targets at the local level.

Published
2021

21. On the theory-practice gap in the environmental realm: perspectives from and for diverse environmental professionals

Author

Cooke, SJ, Jeanson, AL, Bishop, I, Bryan, Brett, Chen, C, Cvitanovic, C, Fen, Y, Forester, J, Fürst, C, Hu, J, La Rosa, D, Meurk, C, Nguyen, VM, Paolisso, M, Qi, Y, Chun, FKS, Szetey, Katrina, Wang, X, Wang, Y, Archibald, CL, Young, N, Cooke, SJ, Jeanson, AL, Bishop, I, Bryan, Brett, Chen, C, Cvitanovic, C, Fen, Y, Forester, J, Fürst, C, Hu, J, La Rosa, D, Meurk, C, Nguyen, VM, Paolisso, M, Qi, Y, Chun, FKS, Szetey, Katrina, Wang, X, Wang, Y, Archibald, CL, and Young, N

Published
2021

22. Articulating the effect of food systems innovation on the Sustainable Development Goals

Author

Environmental Governance, Herrero, Mario, Thornton, Philip K, Mason-D'Croz, Daniel, Palmer, Jeda, Bodirsky, Benjamin L, Pradhan, Prajal, Barrett, Christopher B, Benton, Tim G, Hall, Andrew, Pikaar, Ilje, Bogard, Jessica R, Bonnett, Graham D, Bryan, Brett A, Campbell, Bruce M, Christensen, Svend, Clark, Michael, Fanzo, Jessica, Godde, Cecile M, Jarvis, Andy, Loboguerrero, Ana Maria, Mathys, Alexander, McIntyre, C Lynne, Naylor, Rosamond L, Nelson, Rebecca, Obersteiner, Michael, Parodi, Alejandro, Popp, Alexander, Ricketts, Katie, Smith, Pete, Valin, Hugo, Vermeulen, Sonja J, Vervoort, Joost, van Wijk, Mark, van Zanten, Hannah HE, West, Paul C, Wood, Stephen A, Rockström, Johan, Environmental Governance, Herrero, Mario, Thornton, Philip K, Mason-D'Croz, Daniel, Palmer, Jeda, Bodirsky, Benjamin L, Pradhan, Prajal, Barrett, Christopher B, Benton, Tim G, Hall, Andrew, Pikaar, Ilje, Bogard, Jessica R, Bonnett, Graham D, Bryan, Brett A, Campbell, Bruce M, Christensen, Svend, Clark, Michael, Fanzo, Jessica, Godde, Cecile M, Jarvis, Andy, Loboguerrero, Ana Maria, Mathys, Alexander, McIntyre, C Lynne, Naylor, Rosamond L, Nelson, Rebecca, Obersteiner, Michael, Parodi, Alejandro, Popp, Alexander, Ricketts, Katie, Smith, Pete, Valin, Hugo, Vermeulen, Sonja J, Vervoort, Joost, van Wijk, Mark, van Zanten, Hannah HE, West, Paul C, Wood, Stephen A, and Rockström, Johan

Published
2021

24. Conservation planning for people and nature in a Chilean biodiversity hotspot

Author

Martinez‐Harms, Maria Jose, Wilson, Kerrie A., Costa, Micheli D. P., Possingham, Hugh P., Gelcich, Stefan, Chauvenet, Alienor, Pliscoff, Patricio, Marquet, Pablo A., Bryan, Brett A., Martinez‐Harms, Maria Jose, Wilson, Kerrie A., Costa, Micheli D. P., Possingham, Hugh P., Gelcich, Stefan, Chauvenet, Alienor, Pliscoff, Patricio, Marquet, Pablo A., and Bryan, Brett A.

Abstract

The Mediterranean-type climate region of Chile is a globally unique biodiversity hotspot but its protected area system does not adequately represent the biological diversity, nor does it provide equitable access to people. We explored options to expand the protected area system to cost-effectively improve the conservation of forest ecosystem types while simultaneously enhancing social accessibility to protected areas. Social accessibility is defined as the access of municipalities to cultural ecosystem services provided by protected areas which depends on distance to highly demanded protected areas and income of the municipalities. Using systematic conservation planning methods, we identified priority areas for extending the existing protected area system that: (a) minimise land acquisition cost, (b) maximise social accessibility and (c) optimise for both cost and accessibility. The results show that it is possible to improve social accessibility while simultaneously minimising land cost. Considering cost alone, the protected area system could be expanded to improve biodiversity conservation by 86% at the cost of $47 million USD, which would also increase the accessibility of protected areas by 12%. Accessibility can be increased by a further 18% by jointly considering cost and accessibility without compromising the cost or biodiversity performance. New private conservation policy developed in Chile could help offset the costs of conservation through novel public–private partnerships. Our results can provide specific guidance to policymakers to strategically identify new locations for protected areas which cost-effectively improve biodiversity conservation, while at the same time reducing inequality in social accessibility. The consideration of social access in reserve design could increase the success of protected areas as a conservation tool by bringing people closer to nature. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this

Published
2021

29. A review of systems modelling for local sustainability

Author

Moallemi, Enayat A., Bertone, E, Eker, S, Gao, L, Szetey, Katrina, Taylor, Nick, Bryan, Brett, Moallemi, Enayat A., Bertone, E, Eker, S, Gao, L, Szetey, Katrina, Taylor, Nick, and Bryan, Brett

Abstract

Abstract The 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) represent a holistic and ambitious agenda for transforming the world towards societal well-being, economic prosperity, and environmental protection. Achieving the SDGs is, however, challenged by the performance of interconnected sectors and the complexity of their interactions which drive non-linear system responses, tipping points, and spillover effects. Systems modelling, as an integrated way of thinking about and modelling multisectoral dynamics, can help explain how feedback interactions within and among different sectors can lead to broader system transformation and progress towards the SDGs. Here, we review how system dynamics, as a prominent systems modelling approach, can inform and contribute to sustainability research and implementation, framed by the SDGs. We systematically analyse 357 system dynamics studies undertaken at the local scale where the most important SDG impacts and their initiators are often located, published between 2015 (i.e. SDGs’ inception) and 2020. We analyse the studies to illuminate strengths and limitations in four key areas: diversity of scope; interdisciplinarity of the approaches; the role of stakeholder participation; and the analysis of SDG interactions. Our review highlights opportunities for a better consideration of societal aspects of sustainable development (e.g. poverty, inequality) in modelling efforts; integrating with new interdisciplinary methods to leverage system dynamics modelling capabilities; improving genuine stakeholder engagement for credibility and impacts on the ground; and a more in-depth analysis of SDG interactions (i.e. synergies and trade-offs) with the feedback-rich structure of system dynamics models.

Published
2021

31. Future global urban water scarcity and potential solutions

Author

He, C, Liu, Z, Wu, J, Pan, X, Fang, Z, Li, J, Bryan, Brett, He, C, Liu, Z, Wu, J, Pan, X, Fang, Z, Li, J, and Bryan, Brett

Abstract

AbstractUrbanization and climate change are together exacerbating water scarcity—where water demand exceeds availability—for the world’s cities. We quantify global urban water scarcity in 2016 and 2050 under four socioeconomic and climate change scenarios, and explored potential solutions. Here we show the global urban population facing water scarcity is projected to increase from 933 million (one third of global urban population) in 2016 to 1.693–2.373 billion people (one third to nearly half of global urban population) in 2050, with India projected to be most severely affected in terms of growth in water-scarce urban population (increase of 153–422 million people). The number of large cities exposed to water scarcity is projected to increase from 193 to 193–284, including 10–20 megacities. More than two thirds of water-scarce cities can relieve water scarcity by infrastructure investment, but the potentially significant environmental trade-offs associated with large-scale water scarcity solutions must be guarded against.

Published
2021

33. Articulating the effect of food systems innovation on the Sustainable Development Goals

Author

Herrero, Mario, Thornton, Philip K, Mason-D'Croz, Daniel, Palmer, Jeda, Bodirsky, Benjamin L, Pradhan, Prajal, Barrett, Christopher B, Benton, Tim G, Hall, Andrew, Pikaar, Ilje, Bogard, Jessica R, Bonnett, Graham D, Bryan, Brett A, Campbell, Bruce M, Christensen, Svend, Clark, Michael, Fanzo, Jessica, Godde, Cecile M, Jarvis, Andy, Loboguerrero, Ana Maria, Mathys, Alexander, McIntyre, C Lynne, Naylor, Rosamond L, Nelson, Rebecca, Obersteiner, Michael, Parodi, Alejandro, Popp, Alexander, Ricketts, Katie, Smith, Pete, Valin, Hugo, Vermeulen, Sonja J, Vervoort, Joost, van Wijk, Mark, van Zanten, Hannah HE, West, Paul C, Wood, Stephen A, Rockström, Johan, Herrero, Mario, Thornton, Philip K, Mason-D'Croz, Daniel, Palmer, Jeda, Bodirsky, Benjamin L, Pradhan, Prajal, Barrett, Christopher B, Benton, Tim G, Hall, Andrew, Pikaar, Ilje, Bogard, Jessica R, Bonnett, Graham D, Bryan, Brett A, Campbell, Bruce M, Christensen, Svend, Clark, Michael, Fanzo, Jessica, Godde, Cecile M, Jarvis, Andy, Loboguerrero, Ana Maria, Mathys, Alexander, McIntyre, C Lynne, Naylor, Rosamond L, Nelson, Rebecca, Obersteiner, Michael, Parodi, Alejandro, Popp, Alexander, Ricketts, Katie, Smith, Pete, Valin, Hugo, Vermeulen, Sonja J, Vervoort, Joost, van Wijk, Mark, van Zanten, Hannah HE, West, Paul C, Wood, Stephen A, and Rockström, Johan

Published
2021

37. Articulating the effect of food systems innovation on the Sustainable Development Goals

Author

Environmental Governance, Herrero, Mario, Thornton, Philip K, Mason-D'Croz, Daniel, Palmer, Jeda, Bodirsky, Benjamin L, Pradhan, Prajal, Barrett, Christopher B, Benton, Tim G, Hall, Andrew, Pikaar, Ilje, Bogard, Jessica R, Bonnett, Graham D, Bryan, Brett A, Campbell, Bruce M, Christensen, Svend, Clark, Michael, Fanzo, Jessica, Godde, Cecile M, Jarvis, Andy, Loboguerrero, Ana Maria, Mathys, Alexander, McIntyre, C Lynne, Naylor, Rosamond L, Nelson, Rebecca, Obersteiner, Michael, Parodi, Alejandro, Popp, Alexander, Ricketts, Katie, Smith, Pete, Valin, Hugo, Vermeulen, Sonja J, Vervoort, Joost, van Wijk, Mark, van Zanten, Hannah HE, West, Paul C, Wood, Stephen A, Rockström, Johan, Environmental Governance, Herrero, Mario, Thornton, Philip K, Mason-D'Croz, Daniel, Palmer, Jeda, Bodirsky, Benjamin L, Pradhan, Prajal, Barrett, Christopher B, Benton, Tim G, Hall, Andrew, Pikaar, Ilje, Bogard, Jessica R, Bonnett, Graham D, Bryan, Brett A, Campbell, Bruce M, Christensen, Svend, Clark, Michael, Fanzo, Jessica, Godde, Cecile M, Jarvis, Andy, Loboguerrero, Ana Maria, Mathys, Alexander, McIntyre, C Lynne, Naylor, Rosamond L, Nelson, Rebecca, Obersteiner, Michael, Parodi, Alejandro, Popp, Alexander, Ricketts, Katie, Smith, Pete, Valin, Hugo, Vermeulen, Sonja J, Vervoort, Joost, van Wijk, Mark, van Zanten, Hannah HE, West, Paul C, Wood, Stephen A, and Rockström, Johan

Published
2021

38. Articulating the effect of food systems innovation on the Sustainable Development Goals

Author

Environmental Governance, Herrero, Mario, Thornton, Philip K, Mason-D'Croz, Daniel, Palmer, Jeda, Bodirsky, Benjamin L, Pradhan, Prajal, Barrett, Christopher B, Benton, Tim G, Hall, Andrew, Pikaar, Ilje, Bogard, Jessica R, Bonnett, Graham D, Bryan, Brett A, Campbell, Bruce M, Christensen, Svend, Clark, Michael, Fanzo, Jessica, Godde, Cecile M, Jarvis, Andy, Loboguerrero, Ana Maria, Mathys, Alexander, McIntyre, C Lynne, Naylor, Rosamond L, Nelson, Rebecca, Obersteiner, Michael, Parodi, Alejandro, Popp, Alexander, Ricketts, Katie, Smith, Pete, Valin, Hugo, Vermeulen, Sonja J, Vervoort, Joost, van Wijk, Mark, van Zanten, Hannah HE, West, Paul C, Wood, Stephen A, Rockström, Johan, Environmental Governance, Herrero, Mario, Thornton, Philip K, Mason-D'Croz, Daniel, Palmer, Jeda, Bodirsky, Benjamin L, Pradhan, Prajal, Barrett, Christopher B, Benton, Tim G, Hall, Andrew, Pikaar, Ilje, Bogard, Jessica R, Bonnett, Graham D, Bryan, Brett A, Campbell, Bruce M, Christensen, Svend, Clark, Michael, Fanzo, Jessica, Godde, Cecile M, Jarvis, Andy, Loboguerrero, Ana Maria, Mathys, Alexander, McIntyre, C Lynne, Naylor, Rosamond L, Nelson, Rebecca, Obersteiner, Michael, Parodi, Alejandro, Popp, Alexander, Ricketts, Katie, Smith, Pete, Valin, Hugo, Vermeulen, Sonja J, Vervoort, Joost, van Wijk, Mark, van Zanten, Hannah HE, West, Paul C, Wood, Stephen A, and Rockström, Johan

Published
2021

39. Articulating the effect of food systems innovation on the Sustainable Development Goals

Author

Herrero, Mario, Thornton, Philip K., Mason-D'Croz, Daniel, Palmer, Jeda, Bodirsky, Benjamin L., Pradhan, Prajal, Barrett, Christopher B., Benton, Tim G., Hall, Andrew, Pikaar, Ilje, Bogard, Jessica R., Bonnett, Graham D., Bryan, Brett A., Campbell, Bruce M., Christensen, Svend, Clark, Michael, Fanzo, Jessica, Godde, Cecile M., Jarvis, Andy, Loboguerrero, Ana Maria, Mathys, Alexander, McIntyre, C. Lynne, Naylor, Rosamond L., Nelson, Rebecca, Obersteiner, Michael, Parodi, Alejandro, Popp, Alexander, Ricketts, Katie, Smith, Pete, Valin, Hugo, Vermeulen, Sonja J., Vervoort, Joost, van Wijk, Mark, van Zanten, Hannah HE, West, Paul C., Wood, Stephen A., Rockström, Johan, Herrero, Mario, Thornton, Philip K., Mason-D'Croz, Daniel, Palmer, Jeda, Bodirsky, Benjamin L., Pradhan, Prajal, Barrett, Christopher B., Benton, Tim G., Hall, Andrew, Pikaar, Ilje, Bogard, Jessica R., Bonnett, Graham D., Bryan, Brett A., Campbell, Bruce M., Christensen, Svend, Clark, Michael, Fanzo, Jessica, Godde, Cecile M., Jarvis, Andy, Loboguerrero, Ana Maria, Mathys, Alexander, McIntyre, C. Lynne, Naylor, Rosamond L., Nelson, Rebecca, Obersteiner, Michael, Parodi, Alejandro, Popp, Alexander, Ricketts, Katie, Smith, Pete, Valin, Hugo, Vermeulen, Sonja J., Vervoort, Joost, van Wijk, Mark, van Zanten, Hannah HE, West, Paul C., Wood, Stephen A., and Rockström, Johan

Abstract

Food system innovations will be instrumental to achieving multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, major innovation breakthroughs can trigger profound and disruptive changes, leading to simultaneous and interlinked reconfigurations of multiple parts of the global food system. The emergence of new technologies or social solutions, therefore, have very different impact profiles, with favourable consequences for some SDGs and unintended adverse side-effects for others. Stand-alone innovations seldom achieve positive outcomes over multiple sustainability dimensions. Instead, they should be embedded as part of systemic changes that facilitate the implementation of the SDGs. Emerging trade-offs need to be intentionally addressed to achieve true sustainability, particularly those involving social aspects like inequality in its many forms, social justice, and strong institutions, which remain challenging. Trade-offs with undesirable consequences are manageable through the development of well planned transition pathways, careful monitoring of key indicators, and through the implementation of transparent science targets at the local level.

Published
2021

40. Articulating the effect of food systems innovation on the Sustainable Development Goals

Author

Herrero, Mario, Thornton, Philip K., Mason-D'Croz, Daniel, Palmer, Jeda, Bodirsky, Benjamin L., Pradhan, Prajal, Barrett, Christopher B., Benton, Tim G., Hall, Andrew, Pikaar, Ilje, Bogard, Jessica R., Bonnett, Graham D., Bryan, Brett A., Campbell, Bruce M., Christensen, Svend, Clark, Michael, Fanzo, Jessica, Godde, Cecile M., Jarvis, Andy, Loboguerrero, Ana Maria, Mathys, Alexander, McIntyre, C. Lynne, Naylor, Rosamond L., Nelson, Rebecca, Obersteiner, Michael, Parodi, Alejandro, Popp, Alexander, Ricketts, Katie, Smith, Pete, Valin, Hugo, Vermeulen, Sonja J., Vervoort, Joost, van Wijk, Mark, van Zanten, Hannah HE, West, Paul C., Wood, Stephen A., Rockström, Johan, Herrero, Mario, Thornton, Philip K., Mason-D'Croz, Daniel, Palmer, Jeda, Bodirsky, Benjamin L., Pradhan, Prajal, Barrett, Christopher B., Benton, Tim G., Hall, Andrew, Pikaar, Ilje, Bogard, Jessica R., Bonnett, Graham D., Bryan, Brett A., Campbell, Bruce M., Christensen, Svend, Clark, Michael, Fanzo, Jessica, Godde, Cecile M., Jarvis, Andy, Loboguerrero, Ana Maria, Mathys, Alexander, McIntyre, C. Lynne, Naylor, Rosamond L., Nelson, Rebecca, Obersteiner, Michael, Parodi, Alejandro, Popp, Alexander, Ricketts, Katie, Smith, Pete, Valin, Hugo, Vermeulen, Sonja J., Vervoort, Joost, van Wijk, Mark, van Zanten, Hannah HE, West, Paul C., Wood, Stephen A., and Rockström, Johan

Abstract

Food system innovations will be instrumental to achieving multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, major innovation breakthroughs can trigger profound and disruptive changes, leading to simultaneous and interlinked reconfigurations of multiple parts of the global food system. The emergence of new technologies or social solutions, therefore, have very different impact profiles, with favourable consequences for some SDGs and unintended adverse side-effects for others. Stand-alone innovations seldom achieve positive outcomes over multiple sustainability dimensions. Instead, they should be embedded as part of systemic changes that facilitate the implementation of the SDGs. Emerging trade-offs need to be intentionally addressed to achieve true sustainability, particularly those involving social aspects like inequality in its many forms, social justice, and strong institutions, which remain challenging. Trade-offs with undesirable consequences are manageable through the development of well planned transition pathways, careful monitoring of key indicators, and through the implementation of transparent science targets at the local level.

Published
2021

41. Articulating the effect of food systems innovation on the Sustainable Development Goals

Author

Herrero, Mario, Thornton, Philip K., Mason-D'Croz, Daniel, Palmer, Jeda, Bodirsky, Benjamin L., Pradhan, Prajal, Barrett, Christopher B., Benton, Tim G., Hall, Andrew, Pikaar, Ilje, Bogard, Jessica R., Bonnett, Graham D., Bryan, Brett A., Campbell, Bruce M., Christensen, Svend, Clark, Michael, Fanzo, Jessica, Godde, Cecile M., Jarvis, Andy, Loboguerrero, Ana Maria, Mathys, Alexander, McIntyre, C.L., Naylor, Rosamond L., Nelson, Rebecca, Obersteiner, Michael, Parodi, Alejandro, Popp, Alexander, Ricketts, Katie, Smith, Pete, Valin, Hugo, Vermeulen, Sonja J., Vervoort, Joost, van Wijk, Mark, van Zanten, Hannah H.E., West, Paul C., Wood, Stephen A., Rockström, Johan, Herrero, Mario, Thornton, Philip K., Mason-D'Croz, Daniel, Palmer, Jeda, Bodirsky, Benjamin L., Pradhan, Prajal, Barrett, Christopher B., Benton, Tim G., Hall, Andrew, Pikaar, Ilje, Bogard, Jessica R., Bonnett, Graham D., Bryan, Brett A., Campbell, Bruce M., Christensen, Svend, Clark, Michael, Fanzo, Jessica, Godde, Cecile M., Jarvis, Andy, Loboguerrero, Ana Maria, Mathys, Alexander, McIntyre, C.L., Naylor, Rosamond L., Nelson, Rebecca, Obersteiner, Michael, Parodi, Alejandro, Popp, Alexander, Ricketts, Katie, Smith, Pete, Valin, Hugo, Vermeulen, Sonja J., Vervoort, Joost, van Wijk, Mark, van Zanten, Hannah H.E., West, Paul C., Wood, Stephen A., and Rockström, Johan

Abstract

Food system innovations will be instrumental to achieving multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, major innovation breakthroughs can trigger profound and disruptive changes, leading to simultaneous and interlinked reconfigurations of multiple parts of the global food system. The emergence of new technologies or social solutions, therefore, have very different impact profiles, with favourable consequences for some SDGs and unintended adverse side-effects for others. Stand-alone innovations seldom achieve positive outcomes over multiple sustainability dimensions. Instead, they should be embedded as part of systemic changes that facilitate the implementation of the SDGs. Emerging trade-offs need to be intentionally addressed to achieve true sustainability, particularly those involving social aspects like inequality in its many forms, social justice, and strong institutions, which remain challenging. Trade-offs with undesirable consequences are manageable through the development of well planned transition pathways, careful monitoring of key indicators, and through the implementation of transparent science targets at the local level.

Published
2021

49. Towards automatic calibration of neighbourhood influence in cellular automata land-use models

Author

Roodposhti, Majid Shadman, Hewitt, Richard J., Bryan, Brett A., Roodposhti, Majid Shadman, Hewitt, Richard J., and Bryan, Brett A.

Abstract

© 2019 The Authors Cellular Automata (CA) land-use models are widely used for understanding processes of land-use change. However, calibration of these models is a knowledge-intensive and time-consuming process. Although calibration of common driving factors such as accessibility (A), or suitability (S) is a relatively straightforward task, calibrating the neighbourhood dynamics (N), which controls the key model behaviour, is often very challenging. Here, building on the SIMLANDER modelling framework, we develop an automatic rule detection (ARD) procedure to automate the calibration of N. To demonstrate the performance of the tool, we simulated 15 years of urban growth in Ahvaz, Iran (2000–2015) using a wide range of different rule-sets. We evaluated calibration goodness-of-fit for each rule-set against a reference map by means of cross-comparison of multiple metrics using a ranking procedure. The ARD procedure can be implemented in two ways: 1) by random sampling of the parameter space, a user-defined number of times, or 2) through a stepwise “grid search” approach for a user-defined number of rule combinations. Both approaches were found to produce successful rule combinations according to the goodness-of-fit metrics applied. Grid search performed slightly better, but at the cost of a fivefold increase in computation time. The ARD approach facilitates model calibration by allowing rapid identification of the optimum ruleset from a wide range of possible parameter settings, while the ranking procedure facilitates comparison of simulations using multiple metrics. The approach we present also helps to improve simulation accuracy with respect to manual calibration methods, and increases understanding of neighbourhood dynamics for the urban area studied. To encourage repeatability and transparency, our approach uses only open data and Free-and-Open Source Software (RStudio environment) and we provide our ARD scripts as supplementary material

Published
2020

50. Innovation can accelerate the transition towards a sustainable food system

Author

Herrero, Mario, Thornton, Philip K., Mason-D’Croz, Daniel, Palmer, Jeda, Benton, Tim G., Bodirsky, Benjamin L., Bogard, Jessica R., Hall, Andrew, Lee, Bernice, Nyborg, Karine, Pradhan, Prajal, Bonnett, Graham D., Bryan, Brett A., Campbell, Bruce M., Christensen, Svend, Clark, Michael, Cook, Mathew T., de Boer, Imke J. M., Downs, Chris, Dizyee, Kanar, Folberth, Christian, Godde, Cecile M., Gerber, James S., Grundy, Michael, Havlik, Petr, Jarvis, Andrew, King, Richard, Loboguerrero, Ana Maria, Lopes, Mauricio A., McIntyre, C. Lynne, Naylor, Rosamond, Navarro, Javier, Obersteiner, Michael, Parodi, Alejandro, Peoples, Mark B., Pikaar, Ilje, Popp, Alexander, Rockström, Johan, Robertson, Michael J., Smith, Pete, Stehfest, Elke, Swain, Steve M., Valin, Hugo, van Wijk, Mark, van Zanten, Hannah H. E., Vermeulen, Sonja, Vervoort, Joost, West, Paul C., Herrero, Mario, Thornton, Philip K., Mason-D’Croz, Daniel, Palmer, Jeda, Benton, Tim G., Bodirsky, Benjamin L., Bogard, Jessica R., Hall, Andrew, Lee, Bernice, Nyborg, Karine, Pradhan, Prajal, Bonnett, Graham D., Bryan, Brett A., Campbell, Bruce M., Christensen, Svend, Clark, Michael, Cook, Mathew T., de Boer, Imke J. M., Downs, Chris, Dizyee, Kanar, Folberth, Christian, Godde, Cecile M., Gerber, James S., Grundy, Michael, Havlik, Petr, Jarvis, Andrew, King, Richard, Loboguerrero, Ana Maria, Lopes, Mauricio A., McIntyre, C. Lynne, Naylor, Rosamond, Navarro, Javier, Obersteiner, Michael, Parodi, Alejandro, Peoples, Mark B., Pikaar, Ilje, Popp, Alexander, Rockström, Johan, Robertson, Michael J., Smith, Pete, Stehfest, Elke, Swain, Steve M., Valin, Hugo, van Wijk, Mark, van Zanten, Hannah H. E., Vermeulen, Sonja, Vervoort, Joost, and West, Paul C.

Abstract

Future technologies and systemic innovation are critical for the profound transformation the food system needs. These innovations range from food production, land use and emissions, all the way to improved diets and waste management. Here, we identify these technologies, assess their readiness and propose eight action points that could accelerate the transition towards a more sustainable food system. We argue that the speed of innovation could be significantly increased with the appropriate incentives, regulations and social licence. These, in turn, require constructive stakeholder dialogue and clear transition pathways.

Published
2020

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