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As rates of urbanization and climatic change soar, decision-makers are increasingly challenged to provide innovative solutions that simultaneously address climate change impacts and risks and inclusively ensure quality of life for urban residents. Cities have turned to nature-based solutions to help address these challenges. Nature-based solutions, through the provision of ecosystem services, can yield numerous benefits for people and address multiple challenges simultaneously. Yet, efforts to mainstream nature-based solutions are impaired by the complexity of the interacting social, ecological, and technological dimensions of urban systems. This complexity must be understood and managed to ensure ecosystem-service provisioning is effective, equitable, and resilient. Here, we provide a social-ecological-technological system (SETS) framework that builds on decades of urban ecosystem services research to better understand four core challenges associated with urban nature-based solutions: multi-functionality, systemic valuation, scale mismatch of ecosystem services, and inequity and injustice. The framework illustrates the importance of coordinating natural, technological, and socio-economic systems when designing, planning, and managing urban nature-based solutions to enable optimal social-ecological outcomes.

As rates of urbanization and climatic change soar, decision-makers are increasingly challenged to provide innovative solutions that simultaneously address climate-change impacts and risks and inclusively ensure quality of life for urban residents. Cities have turned to nature-based solutions to help address these challenges. Nature-based solutions, through the provision of ecosystem services, can yield numerous benefits for people and address multiple challenges simultaneously. Yet, efforts to mainstream nature-based solutions are impaired by the complexity of the interacting social, ecological, and technological dimensions of urban systems. This complexity must be understood and managed to ensure ecosystem-service provisioning is effective, equitable, and resilient. Here, we provide a social-ecological-technological system (SETS) framework that builds on decades of urban ecosystem services research to better understand four core challenges associated with urban nature-based solutions: multi-functionality, systemic valuation, scale mismatch of ecosystem services, and inequity and injustice. The framework illustrates the importance of coordinating natural, technological, and socio-economic systems when designing, planning, and managing urban nature-based solutions to enable optimal social-ecological outcomes.

As urban populations continue to grow through the 21st century, more people are projected to be at risk of exposure to climate change-induced extreme events. To investigate the complexity of urban floods, this study applied an interlinked social-ecological-technological systems (SETS) vulnerability framework by developing an urban flood vulnerability index for six US cities. Indicators were selected to reflect and illustrate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to flooding for each of the three domains of SETS. We quantified 18 indicators and normalized them by the cities' 500-yr floodplain area at the census block group level. Clusters of flood vulnerable areas were identified differently by each SETS domain, and some areas were vulnerable to floods in more than one domain. Results are provided to support decision-making for reducing risks to flooding, by considering social, ecological, and technological vulnerability as well as hotspots where multiple sources of vulnerability coexist. The spatially explicit urban SETS flood vulnerability framework can be transferred to other regions facing challenging urban floods and other types of environmental hazards. Mapping SETS flood vulnerability helps to reveal intersections of complex SETS interactions and inform policy-making for building more resilient cities in the face of extreme events and climate change impacts.

Cities are particularly vulnerable to cloudbursts - short-duration, intense rainfall events which are often inadequately addressed through conventional stormwater and flood management policy. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of cloudbursts in many cities. As minor cloudburst events become more frequent and extreme events more severe, cities will need to rapidly transform their stormwater drainage and interdependent systems, and the knowledge systems that guide their infrastructure decisions and policy. In this paper, we discuss the evolution of knowledge systems to address these challenges, using three diverse cities (Phoenix, USA; Copenhagen, Denmark; and New York City, USA) as case studies. We found that partnerships between cities - even across national boundaries - can be a particularly important component of cloudburst knowledge systems. We also identified limitations in knowledge systems related to non-stationary climate, the vulnerability of private property and the representation of cloudburst infrastructure in integrated water management, which present opportunities for future research to support decision-making.

Traditional infrastructure adaptation to extreme weather events (and now climate change) has typically been techno-centric and heavily grounded in robustness—the capacity to prevent or minimize disruptions via a risk-based approach that emphasizes control, armoring, and strengthening (e.g., raising the height of levees). However, climate and nonclimate challenges facing infrastructure are not purely technological. Ecological and social systems also warrant consideration to manage issues of overconfidence, inflexibility, interdependence, and resource utilization—among others. As a result, techno-centric adaptation strategies can result in unwanted tradeoffs, unintended consequences, and underaddressed vulnerabilities. Techno-centric strategies that lock-in today’s infrastructure systems to vulnerable future design, management, and regulatory practices may be particularly problematic by exacerbating these ecological and social issues rather than ameliorating them. Given these challenges, we develop a conceptual model and infrastructure adaptation case studies to argue the following: (1) infrastructure systems are not simply technological and should be understood as complex and interconnected social, ecological, and technological systems (SETSs); (2) infrastructure challenges, like lock-in, stem from SETS interactions that are often overlooked and underappreciated; (3) framing infrastructure with a SETS lens can help identify and prevent maladaptive issues like lock-in; and (4) a SETS lens can also highlight effective infrastructure adaptation strategies that may not traditionally be considered. Ultimately, we find that treating infrastructure as SETS shows promise for increasing the adaptive capacity of infrastructure systems by highlighting how lock-in and vulnerabilities evolve and how multidisciplinary strategies can be deployed to address these challenges by broadening the options for adaptation.

Climate change in the Pacific Northwest of America is likely to bring more frequent, heavier winter precipitation as temperature rises. These changes in precipitation patterns have significant implications in hydrology and socioeconomic sectors that could be affected by changes in hydrology. Transportation infrastructure and travel patterns are also vulnerable to potential changes in runoff regimes and stream geomorphology. The 2006 and 2007 winter storms resulted in massive flooding, causing several major road failures in Oregon. While the probability of these extreme events is projected to rise under the global warming scenarios, there is no study investigating this issue in Oregon.The objectives of the project are threefold. First, we investigate the changes in the frequency and magnitude of winter runoff under climate change scenarios. Second, we determine the probability of road closure for representative road bridges under climate change scenarios. Third, we quantify these changes on transportation chokepoints related to flooding.We examined two representative urban streams in the Portland Metro area. Johnson Creek and Fanno Creek were chosen because both creeks have historical flow data and exhibit high flooding potential; each also has high road density with high traffic volume. The hydrological processes of the two watersheds, however, are different (Fanno – highly urbanized and steep slope; Johnson Creek – mixed land use with gentle slope); thus, each serves as a good model for other urban watersheds in Oregon. We used the following methodology to conduct our analysis. 1) Hydro-climate modeling: We applied statistically downscaled climate change scenarios for our study sites to predict the anticipated changes in winter precipitation amount and intensity. The US Geological Survey PRMS hydrologic model, together with a statistical model, were used to estimate runoff changes and resultant changes in flood frequency. 2) Stream geomorphology survey and hydrauli

Climate change in the Pacific Northwest of America is likely to bring more frequent, heavier winter precipitation as temperature rises. These changes in precipitation patterns have significant implications in hydrology and socioeconomic sectors that could be affected by changes in hydrology. Transportation infrastructure and travel patterns are also vulnerable to potential changes in runoff regimes and stream geomorphology. The 2006 and 2007 winter storms resulted in massive flooding, causing several major road failures in Oregon. While the probability of these extreme events is projected to rise under the global warming scenarios, there is no study investigating this issue in Oregon.The objectives of the project are threefold. First, we investigate the changes in the frequency and magnitude of winter runoff under climate change scenarios. Second, we determine the probability of road closure for representative road bridges under climate change scenarios. Third, we quantify these changes on transportation chokepoints related to flooding.We examined two representative urban streams in the Portland Metro area. Johnson Creek and Fanno Creek were chosen because both creeks have historical flow data and exhibit high flooding potential; each also has high road density with high traffic volume. The hydrological processes of the two watersheds, however, are different (Fanno – highly urbanized and steep slope; Johnson Creek – mixed land use with gentle slope); thus, each serves as a good model for other urban watersheds in Oregon. We used the following methodology to conduct our analysis. 1) Hydro-climate modeling: We applied statistically downscaled climate change scenarios for our study sites to predict the anticipated changes in winter precipitation amount and intensity. The US Geological Survey PRMS hydrologic model, together with a statistical model, were used to estimate runoff changes and resultant changes in flood frequency. 2) Stream geomorphology survey and hydrauli

Making trade-offs between ecological services and other contributors to human well-being is a difficult but critical process that requires valuation. This allows both better recognition of the ecological, social, and economic trade-offs and also allows us to bill those who use up or destroy ecological services and reward those that produce or enhance them. It also aids improved ecosystems policy. In this paper we clarify some of the controversies in defining the contributions to human well-being from functioning ecosystems, many of which people are not even aware of.We go on to describe the applicability of the various valuation methods that can be used in estimating the benefits of ecosystem services. Finally, we describe some recent case studies and lay out the research agenda for ecosystem services analysis, modeling, and valuation going forward.

We investigated the hydrological response to climate change simulations for three basins in South Korea. To provide fine-scale climate information to the PRMS hydrological model, an ECHO-G B2 simulation was dynamically downscaled using the RegCM3 double-nested system implementing two different convection schemes, namely, the Grell and the MIT-Emanuel (EMU) schemes. The daily minimum and maximum temperatures and precipitation from the nested domain for a grid spacing of 20 km are used as the input for the PRMS run. Two sets of multi-decadal simulations are performed over a reference period (1971–2000) and a future period (2021–2050). We focus on the differences of hydrological impacts in response to both simulations with different performances. Based on the validation of the reference simulations, the EMU simulation shows considerable improvement compared to the Grell simulation, indicating a reduction in the cold and dry biases during summer. This improvement is directly reflected in the hydrological simulation of evapotranspiration and runoff. However, using the RCM simulations without bias-correction showed the limitations of hydrologic simulation, especially snowmelt. Despite large differences in both reference simulations, the change signals of temperature and precipitation derived from the differences between the reference and future simulations show a similar pattern and sign. However, the differences in monthly change in precipitation and temperature between Grell and EMU caused the relatively large differences in runoff changes in the study areas.

We investigated the hydrological response to climate change simulations for three basins in South Korea. To provide fine-scale climate information to the PRMS hydrological model, an ECHO-G B2 simulation was dynamically downscaled using the RegCM3 double-nested system implementing two different convection schemes, namely, the Grell and the MIT-Emanuel (EMU) schemes. The daily minimum and maximum temperatures and precipitation from the nested domain for a grid spacing of 20 km are used as the input for the PRMS run. Two sets of multi-decadal simulations are performed over a reference period (1971–2000) and a future period (2021–2050). We focus on the differences of hydrological impacts in response to both simulations with different performances. Based on the validation of the reference simulations, the EMU simulation shows considerable improvement compared to the Grell simulation, indicating a reduction in the cold and dry biases during summer. This improvement is directly reflected in the hydrological simulation of evapotranspiration and runoff. However, using the RCM simulations without bias-correction showed the limitations of hydrologic simulation, especially snowmelt. Despite large differences in both reference simulations, the change signals of temperature and precipitation derived from the differences between the reference and future simulations show a similar pattern and sign. However, the differences in monthly change in precipitation and temperature between Grell and EMU caused the relatively large differences in runoff changes in the study areas.

We investigated the hydrological response to climate change simulations for three basins in South Korea. To provide fine-scale climate information to the PRMS hydrological model, an ECHO-G B2 simulation was dynamically downscaled using the RegCM3 double-nested system implementing two different convection schemes, namely, the Grell and the MIT-Emanuel (EMU) schemes. The daily minimum and maximum temperatures and precipitation from the nested domain for a grid spacing of 20 km are used as the input for the PRMS run. Two sets of multi-decadal simulations are performed over a reference period (1971–2000) and a future period (2021–2050). We focus on the differences of hydrological impacts in response to both simulations with different performances. Based on the validation of the reference simulations, the EMU simulation shows considerable improvement compared to the Grell simulation, indicating a reduction in the cold and dry biases during summer. This improvement is directly reflected in the hydrological simulation of evapotranspiration and runoff. However, using the RCM simulations without bias-correction showed the limitations of hydrologic simulation, especially snowmelt. Despite large differences in both reference simulations, the change signals of temperature and precipitation derived from the differences between the reference and future simulations show a similar pattern and sign. However, the differences in monthly change in precipitation and temperature between Grell and EMU caused the relatively large differences in runoff changes in the study areas.

Freshwater availability is affected by changes in climate and growth. We assessed the freshwater vulnerability for five major Korean river basins for 2015 and 2030. We used a regional climate model based on the IPCC SRES A2 scenario, US Geological Survey's Precipitation Rainfall Simulation Model, and population and industrial growth scenarios for impact assessment. The model simulation results suggest increasing spatial and temporal variations of water stress for the basins that are already developed. While freshwater is more vulnerable to growth scenarios than the climate change scenario, climate change alone could decrease mean annual runoff by 10% in four major river basins by 2030. As the first national assessment of climate change, we suggest possible adaptive water resource management and policy strategies for reducing climate related risks in Korea.

Freshwater availability is affected by changes in climate and growth. We assessed the freshwater vulnerability for five major Korean river basins for 2015 and 2030. We used a regional climate model based on the IPCC SRES A2 scenario, US Geological Survey's Precipitation Rainfall Simulation Model, and population and industrial growth scenarios for impact assessment. The model simulation results suggest increasing spatial and temporal variations of water stress for the basins that are already developed. While freshwater is more vulnerable to growth scenarios than the climate change scenario, climate change alone could decrease mean annual runoff by 10% in four major river basins by 2030. As the first national assessment of climate change, we suggest possible adaptive water resource management and policy strategies for reducing climate related risks in Korea.

Freshwater availability is affected by changes in climate and growth. We assessed the freshwater vulnerability for five major Korean river basins for 2015 and 2030. We used a regional climate model based on the IPCC SRES A2 scenario, US Geological Survey's Precipitation Rainfall Simulation Model, and population and industrial growth scenarios for impact assessment. The model simulation results suggest increasing spatial and temporal variations of water stress for the basins that are already developed. While freshwater is more vulnerable to growth scenarios than the climate change scenario, climate change alone could decrease mean annual runoff by 10% in four major river basins by 2030. As the first national assessment of climate change, we suggest possible adaptive water resource management and policy strategies for reducing climate related risks in Korea.