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Introduction: The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence and risk factors of diabetes mellitus in the adult population of Porto-Novo. Methods: A cross-sectional study with random sampling, stratified cluster, was used. Fasting blood glucose was measured in capillary blood (Accu-Chek Active). Diabetes mellitus was defined as fasting glucose ≥ 1.26 g/L, and fasting hyperglycemia in non-diabetic fasting glucose ≥ 1.10 and < 1.26 g/L. Results: The survey involved 240 individuals. The sex ratio was 0.48. The mean age was 46 ± 13 years (range 25 - 80 years). The prevalence of hyperglycemic patients was 7.9%. The prevalence of diabetes was 6.7%, including 3.3% of unknown diabetes, half of diabetics. The prevalence of fasting hyperglycemia without diabetes was 1.2%. The risk factors for diabetes type 2 onset were a family history of diabetes (p = 0.017), older age (p = 0.003), hypertension (p = 0.005) and abdominal obesity (NCEP: p = 0.044; FID: p = 0.001). Conclusion: These high figures confirm the increasing prevalence of diabetes mellitus in Benin, documented in many developing countries.

PurposeFew models have been developed specifically for the epidemiology of diabetes. Diabetes incidence is critical in predicting diabetes prevalence. However, reliable estimates of disease incidence rates are difficult to obtain. The aim of this study was to propose a mathematical framework for predicting diabetes prevalence using incidence rates estimated within the model using body mass index (BMI) data.MethodsA generic mechanistic model was proposed considering birth, death, migration, aging, and diabetes incidence dynamics. Diabetes incidence rates were determined within the model using their relationships with BMI represented by the Hill equation. The Hill equation parameters were estimated by fitting the model to National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1999-2010 data and used to predict diabetes prevalence pertaining to each NHANES survey year. The prevalences were also predicted using diabetes incidence rates calculated from the NHANES data themselves. The model was used to estimate death rate parameters and to quantify sensitivities of prevalence to each population dynamic.ResultsThe model using incidence rate estimates from the Hill equations successfully predicted diabetes prevalence of younger, middle-aged, and older adults (prediction error, 20.0%, 9.64%, and 7.58% respectively). Diabetes prevalence was positively associated with diabetes incidence in every age group, but the associations among younger adults were stronger. In contrast, diabetes prevalence was more sensitive to death rates in older adults than younger adults. Both diabetes incidence and prevalence were strongly sensitive to BMI at younger ages, but sensitivity gradually declined as age progressed. Younger and middle aged adults diagnosed with diabetes had at least a two-fold greater risk of death than their nondiabetic counterparts. Nondiabetic older adults were found to be under slightly higher death risk (0.079) than those diagnosed with diabetes (0.073).ConclusionsT

PurposeFew models have been developed specifically for the epidemiology of diabetes. Diabetes incidence is critical in predicting diabetes prevalence. However, reliable estimates of disease incidence rates are difficult to obtain. The aim of this study was to propose a mathematical framework for predicting diabetes prevalence using incidence rates estimated within the model using body mass index (BMI) data.MethodsA generic mechanistic model was proposed considering birth, death, migration, aging, and diabetes incidence dynamics. Diabetes incidence rates were determined within the model using their relationships with BMI represented by the Hill equation. The Hill equation parameters were estimated by fitting the model to National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1999-2010 data and used to predict diabetes prevalence pertaining to each NHANES survey year. The prevalences were also predicted using diabetes incidence rates calculated from the NHANES data themselves. The model was used to estimate death rate parameters and to quantify sensitivities of prevalence to each population dynamic.ResultsThe model using incidence rate estimates from the Hill equations successfully predicted diabetes prevalence of younger, middle-aged, and older adults (prediction error, 20.0%, 9.64%, and 7.58% respectively). Diabetes prevalence was positively associated with diabetes incidence in every age group, but the associations among younger adults were stronger. In contrast, diabetes prevalence was more sensitive to death rates in older adults than younger adults. Both diabetes incidence and prevalence were strongly sensitive to BMI at younger ages, but sensitivity gradually declined as age progressed. Younger and middle aged adults diagnosed with diabetes had at least a two-fold greater risk of death than their nondiabetic counterparts. Nondiabetic older adults were found to be under slightly higher death risk (0.079) than those diagnosed with diabetes (0.073).ConclusionsT