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This thesis consists of five core chapters focused on investigating nonlinearities arising from state dependence, threshold and asymmetric effects in the relationship among economic growth, financial instability and financial inclusion. The first paper sets the stage by inquiring whether the relationship between financial instability and economic growth changes with the business cycle. We find that (i) there is a long run relationship between financial instability and economic growth, (ii) the relationship is sensitive to the state of the economy, (iii) given a shock to the system, the speed at which adjustment to the long run equilibrium takes place varies across different quantiles of economic growth, and (iv) the interaction term between financial instability and financial inclusion has a non-trivial effect on output growth. These results highlight the need for (i) studies aimed at investigating finance-growth nexus to consider possible non-linearities arising from state-dependence, and (ii) state-specific, rather than 'all-seasons' policies for ameliorating the negative output effects of financial instability. In the second paper, we focus on the threshold effect of financial inclusion on the relationship between financial instability and economic growth. We find evidence of a 20 per cent financial inclusion threshold below which the effects of financial stability on economic growth is neutral, and above which the relationship between financial stability and output becomes non-trivial. Also, we confirm that financial instability generates negative output effects in Nigeria. These results imply that the level of financial inclusion matters for the effect of financial instability on economic performance. In the third paper, the study presented global evidence on the nexus between financial inclusion and economic growth using 153 countries across regions and various levels of development. Using a battery of linear (random effects) and non-linear (panel threshold) models, the study found that financial inclusion has a positive impact on economic growth in all situations. The magnitudes are greater for higher income countries and are also higher in non-fragile economies compared with low income and fragile economies. Furthermore, the results reveal that the nexus between financial inclusion and economic growth remains positive even in the face of undeniable threshold (nonlinear) effects. The threshold results shows that the magnitude of the positive impact of financial inclusion on grwoth appears to rise with higher levels of financial inclusions, although it declines with higher levels of financial development. The fourth paper accommodates the effects of the debt threshold in the relationship between financial instability and economic growth. Thus, we estimate a smooth transition growth model using debt as a transition variable and found that the level of debt matters for the nature of the relationship between financial instability and economic performance. The study found that in the lower debt regime, financial instability positively affects economic performance, while in the upper debt regime, it negatively affects the economy. This confirmed the presence of asymmetry across regimes. It was also found that the optimal debt-to-GDP ratio in Nigeria is around 55 per cent. In the final paper, we investigate the causal relationship between finance and economic growth while accounting for nonlinearities arising from threshold and asymmetric effects. We find evidence of three regimes in the growth model; and show that whereas financial inclusion has causal effect on economic performance in the second and third regimes, economic growth causes financial inclusion only in the second regime. On the other hand, there is no causal relationship between financial instability and economic growth in the second regime. Furthermore, our results confirm the presence of asymmetric effects as positive and negative variations in real GDP and financial inclusion generates varied effects on financial instability. Also, positive and negative variations in real GDP and financial instability lead to different impacts on financial inclusion. However, economic growth does not respond differently to positive and negative variations in the financial sector variables. Finally, we find evidence that positive shocks to financial inclusion elicit positive response in output, and such positive response is amplified during periods of high economic growth.

Business cycles in emerging market economies (EMEs) are characterised by strong volatility and procyclical exchange rates. This dissertation investigates the role of exchange rates in EM business cycles from a theoretical, empirical, and policy perspective. First, it provides a Minskyan open economy model in which exchange rate procyclicality is generated through the interaction of nominal exchange rates and investment spending. The model shows that when balance sheet effects from foreign currency debt and the important propensity are strong, endogenous cycles can emerge whose volatility increases when risk appetite for external debt rises. Second, the dissertation formalises and empirically tests three endogenous business cycle mechanisms from the Minskyan literature using bivariate vector-autoregressions. Three financial variables (the interest rate, external debt, the nominal exchange rate) and their cyclical interaction with output are tested for a data set of 13 EMEs over the period 1960-2017. There is evidence for a cycle mechanism (i) with nominal exchange rates in Chile, Israel, the Philippines and South Africa; (ii) with external debt in Mexico, the Philippines, and South Africa, and (iii) with interest rates in Argentina, Mexico, and South Africa. Third, the thesis tests the hypotheses that foreign exchange intervention (FXI) can stabilise (i) output and consumer prices and (ii) output and quity prices after external shocks. Estimating vector-autoregressions on data from 25 small open economies over the period 1990Q1-2017Q4, it employs a counterfactual analysis to assess the effectiveness of FXI on either prices or output in 21 out of 25 countries, and for a stabilising effect on share prices in 17 out of 23 counties. Overall, the thesis presents theoretical and empirical evidence that flexible exchange rates can be important drivers of EM business cycles and that exchange rate management can be stabilising.

We compare the forecasting performance of univariate and multivariate models for BRICS and OPEC economies. For the univariate models, we produce forecasts using ARIMAX models that have a deterministic component to account for structural breaks over the full sample period and different ARIMA specifications over a reduced sample period that avoids the modelling structural breaks. The univariate ARIMA models that we develop over the reduced sample period are, first, a seasonal ARIMA specification identified using the Box-Jenkins method, second, a seasonal ARIMA model identified using EView's automatic model selection tool and third, a non-seasonal ARIMA model identified using EView's automatic model selection tool applied to seasonally adjusted data. The other univariate model we considered include the regime shift threshold Autoregressive model (over the full sample and reduced sample) and the naïve model which added as a benchmark. Multivariate models are estimated over the reduced sample period to avoid modelling structural breaks and are based upon Vector Autoregression (VAR) models that utilise differencing and cointegrating restrictions to ensure the stationarity of the data. In particular, we consider the unrestricted VAR model with differenced (stationary) data, the (unrestricted) Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) that assumes cointegration without imposing cointegrating restrictions and the restricted VEC that imposes a single cointegrating equation on the VECM. Our study shows that the benchmark models (naïve) were never favoured over the best selected univariate and multivariate model. The univariate EView's automatic non-seasonal ARIMA model is generally favoured for the BRICS countries (the exception is South Africa). However, the results are mixed between univariate and multivariate methods for OPEC countries. For OPEC countries that have a history of moderate inflation, for example, Saudi Arabia, the univariate automatic non-seasonal ARIMA model outperforms the multivariate model. In contrast, multivariate models generally outperform univariate automatically selected ARIMA models for countries with high inflation (e.g Angola and Algeria).

In the short-run, there is not enough time for systemic feedback to organise and become a force. In this instance, it is appropriate to use models and theory underpinned by observed systemic causal links, such as supply and demand determining price. On the other hand, where there is enough time for complexity to become influential, the system might be best explored using complexity science. This work explores the fundamental forces arising from trade in the long-run, where there is enough time for complexity forces to become influential. The complexity research tool used was agent-based modelling. A simple trade model was created that can be fully explained in just a few lines of prose. Three areas of the economy were explored using this model with the following results: 1) In complex systems, long-run prices are shaped by the system's definition of evolutionary fitness regardless of supply and demand. 2) Econophysicists are condtionally correct in their hypothesis that money in a closed system maintains a Boltzmann-Gibbs distribution (0.5 Gini coefficient). 3) Experimentation with trade models support the Rand/Stonedahl experiments indicating that agent computational ability inversely correlates with efficiency. In addition to a simple trade model, a far more complex model was built that includes an environment with raw resources, agents who are labourers, business owners, and consumers. This model requires agents to successfully reproduce in order to avoid extinction. Almost all agent behaviour is governed by evolutionary variables. Using this model, it is also established that: 4) The behaviours established in simple trade model are maintained in a more complex model. 5) Long-term outcomes of economic models change as the nature of the population changes. 6) The nature of the economy can change the nature of the population. These last two points suggest that economic models using representative or eternal populations are not suitable for making conclusions concerning long-term economic theory or recommending policy. However, the most important finding is likely that price can be delinked from supply and demand in the long-run. Explanations for this result lie in the results of the other experiments that, together, build up our understanding of the foundational forces of trade in a complex system.

The need to tap private capital and expertise for the public-sector to concentrate on policy making are the chief reasons why governments across the globe are increasingly adopting the public-private partnership (PPP) model of infrastructure procurement. This research investigated the investment climate for PPP in Nigeria by examining the legal, institutional and regulatory structure in place for participation of the private sector in the procurement of infrastructure in the country to determine how the framework for PPP in the country stimulates or mars the success of PPP arrangements. The rational for the study is to develop mechanisms to enhance the interest of both local and foreign investors given the wide infrastructure gap in the country. The spate of project failures, mistrust by community stakeholders and disputes indicates that there is a lack of proper understanding of how PPPs can work in the country. To provide a workable framework, the study draws lessons from two other developing economies with similar federal structures like Nigeria. It is expected that the lessons derived from this research will form an instrument for Nigerian PPP policy framers to fashion a holistic framework to arouse private sector interest in PPP projects as well as assist government in the management of such arrangements in the country. Consequent upon the foregoing, this research supports community involvement in all PPP projects, respect for contracts by the public sector, reduction of the gestation period for contracts, limiting unnecessary bureaucracy as well as the encouragement of the growth of a local financial market base for private funding of infrastructure by means of PPP model of procurement.

This thesis assessed the hypothesis that the financial system and external openness were significant determinants of the post reform dynamics of the monetary transmission mechanism in Ghana, and the evolution in the Bank of Ghana's post reform monetary policy programming. Ghana underwent structural adjustment reform, which began in the mid 1980s. The reform was arguably the most significant structural reform programmed in its post-independence history, as it was designed to engender a shift from the pre-reform import substitution macroeconomic framework to a post reform liberalised, open economy. The reform motivated long term structural changes in key sectors of the economy, potentially including monetary transmission mechanism and monetary policy. Key aspects of the reform programme included; (1) financial structure reforms and financial sector liberalisation, (2) External openness liberalisation and (3) Monetary policy reforms. Theoretical consensus, as evidenced in the Post Keynesian and Open Economic conceptualisations, is that the nature and dynamics of the monetary transmission mechanism is determined by, amongst other factors, the institutional structure of the financial system and external openness. These theories further postulate that a Central bank's choice of, and effectiveness of its monetary policy framework(s) and policy tools, are determined by the structure and dynamics of the monetary transmission mechanism. By extension, a significant determinant of a Central bank's choice of policy frameworks and tools is the nature and dynamics of the financial system. The theoretical implications are that institutional and structural changes in a country's financial system and external openness will have long run implications for the dynamics of the monetary transmission mechanism, and well as motivate changes in a central bank's monetary policy frameworks and tools. This thesis tests these theoretical implication using Ghana's experience with the structural adjustment reforms as an event study. Firstly, the thesis tested the hypothesis that institutional and structural changes in financial structure and external openness were significant in explaining the long run dynamics of the monetary transmission mechanism in Ghana. To test this hypothesis, we first constructed a financial structure and external openness indices using Dynamic Factor Modelling techniques. Then a benchmark model and an augmented model are constructed and estimated. The structural dynamics of the monetary transmission mechanism is assessed using three tests; (a) significance of long run and short run causality running from monetary policy to the admissible variable, (b) significance structural change by conducting a structural break test (using likelihood ration test) on the augmented model and, (c) assessment of impulse responses of shocks in the financial structure and external openness indices. Secondly, in light of the institutionalised market based reforms of the financial system, the thesis also tested the hypothesis that this was significant in evolution to indirect monetary targeting and inflation targeting tools. Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models of the Bank of Ghana's inflation targeting and monetary targeting frameworks are estimated. Effectiveness of both policy tools are assessed by analysing causality (short run and long run) running from both policy tools (monetary policy rate and open market operations). In addition, responses to policy induced shocks in the Bank of Ghana's Monetary Policy Rate, and Open Market Operations are also assessed using Impulse Response Function (IRF) analysis. The overall empirical findings indicate that the structural adjustment reform, and the underlying financial system and external openness changes, were significant in the post reform dynamics of monetary transmission mechanism and monetary policy in Ghana. Both the banking sector and the post reform external openness had significant effects on GDP growth and inflation, indicating their important roles as systematic links between monetary policy and the post reform macroeconomy. The findings also suggest that development post reform financial structure motivated the observed post reform regime transitions in the Bank of Ghana's monetary policy frameworks from the direct regime to indirect institutionalised monetary targeting and inflation targeting regimes.

This thesis investigates the macroeconomic effects of domestic oil prices and international crude oil prices in Ghana. We investigate the ability of oil prices to influence economic growth in Ghana using annual data from 1971 to 2014. We also examine the possibility of shock spillover and volatility spillover effects from domestic and crude oil prices to the Ghana currency exchange rates and the Ghana stock market index using monthly data from January 1991 to December 2015. To conduct these investigations, this study employed various econometric techniques including; unit root testing, cointegration testing, vector autoregressive model (VAR), structural VAR (SVAR), vector error correction model (VECM), scenario-based dynamic forecasting, the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) specification, and the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) BEKK model. Overall, this study seeks to address two central issues; i) whether domestic and world oil prices have the same effect on economic activities and financial variables in Ghana, and ii) whether the crude oil price and the macro economy relationship in Ghana is related to the treatment of crude oil prices as exogenous or endogenous. It is important to recognize the exogeneity of crude oil prices in the context of Ghana given the relatively small size of the Ghanaian economy. The findings suggest that the international crude oil price movements have an insignificant effect on output growth in Ghana both in the short run and in the long, regardless of whether the crude oil price is treated as exogenous or endogenous. However, domestic oil prices have a significant effect on the output growth rate only in the long run. The findings also indicate that world crude oil prices have significant spillover effects on the exchange rate, and this result is unaffected by the treatment of world crude oil prices as exogenous or endogenous. However, the relationship between crude oil prices and the Ghana stock market depends on whether the crude oil price is exogenous or endogenous. In addition, domestic oil prices have significant spillover effects on the exchange rate and the stock market. Domestic oil prices are also found to have more influence on the stock market than crude oil prices do. The results of this study have some implications for the government and investors; (i) Increases in crude oil prices do not put a binding constraint on the monetary authorities to loosen monetary policy to offset its effect on output. If inflation is a priority, policy makers could focus on inflation stabilization by tightening monetary policy during oil price rises. (ii) The government?s tax policies on petroleum products should not only be focused on revenue generation, but also on ensuring that such policies do not lead to exorbitant domestic oil prices since higher taxes on petroleum products will increase domestic oil prices which can be detrimental to the economy in the long term. (iii) The government should formulate transport-related policies such as promoting mass transportation or encouraging the use of electrically powered vehicles. The government can also encourage the use of renewable energy such as solar to help reduce the country?s dependence on oil (iv) Internationally diversified portfolio investors in Ghana should use hedging strategies such as currency forwards, futures, and options to protect their investments from exchange rate risk emanating from oil price shocks.

This study examines the effect of exchange rate changes on consumer prices in Nigeria by examining the magnitude and speed of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to consumer prices in Nigeria using quarterly time series data from 1986 to 2013. The study also examines the potential nonlinearities and asymmetries in the ERPT in Nigeria during the same period. The study used vector error correction model (VECM) and smooth transition autoregresive (STAR) model. The methodology employed, are free from some weaknesses of the previous empirical studies and contributed to the analysis of ERPT from a macroeconomic perspective. This study focuses on the macroeconomic perspective of the effect of ERPT which is more relevant for monetary policy. To design and implement an efficient monetary policy, theoritical and empirical knowledge of the ERPT to domestic consumer price is necessary. Similarly, the understanding of the level of ERPT to domestic consumer prices would offer more understanding of the international transmission of shocks and the efficiency of exchange rate policy measures on external adjustment. The study results show full and statistically significant ERPT in the long-run in Nigeria during the sample period. However, using linear model (VECM) the short-run estimate shows no significant ERPT in Nigeria. Whereas, the nonlinear STAR model shows significant ERPT even in the short-run in Nigeria. The results of the nonlinear model (STAR) show evidence of nonlinearities and asymmetries in the ERPT in Nigeria. The nonlinearities and asymmetries tend to be prevalent during periods of higher inflation and greater exchange movements when the changes in prices and exchange rates exceed certain thresholds. This study, therefore, confirms Taylor’s (2000) hypothesis that pass-through declines in low and stable inflation environment which create nonlinear ERPT. The result shows asymmetric ERPT to the direction of exchange rate change (appreciation or depreciation). The result also shows clear evidence of nonlinearity with respect to the size of the exchange rate change. This result is in line with the menu cost hypothesis where the importing firms do not transfer the exchange rate changes due to the cost of changing their menu. Therefore, the effect of the exchange rate changes on consumer price is minimal when the exchange rate changes are below the threshold level. The study also examined the output growth as a source of nonlinearities. However, the result does not show evidence of nonlinear ERPT due to the output level. The comparison of statistical test results of linear autoregressive (AR) and the nonlinear (STAR) model indicates that the nonlinear STAR model fits the data better than the linear AR model in all cases. The results of this study, therefore, show a significant impact of exchange rate changes on the domestic consumer price in both short run and long run. The asymmetric and nonlinear ERPT induced by the pricing behaviors of the importing firms also significantly influences the speed and magnitude of the ERPT to consumer prices in Nigeria.

This thesis investigates, theoretically and empirically, the impact of FDA and privatization on economic growth in Egypt and identifies the channels through which FDI affects economic growth over the period 1970-2015. In addition, the thesis investigates the impact of corruption on FDI in Egypt over the period 1970-2015. The literature survey in chapter two argues that both FDI and privatization increase the rate of economic growth, while corruption has a negative impact on FDI. After reviewing institutional and regulatory frameworks of FDI and privatization in Egypt in chapter three, the econometric framework of cointegration and error correction mechanism are used in chapter four to capture the linkages between FDI, privatization and economic growth in Egypt. Our results reveal that privatization has a positive effect on the long run economic growth in Egypt. The effect of FDI on economic growth, however, depends on the sectoral distribution of these FDI inflows. FDI inflows have a positive impact on the short run economic growth in Egypt. However, in the long run, FDI inflows indicate a negative, yet limited, impact on the economic growth as FDI inflows are concentrated in the primary sector, mainly the petroleum sector. Thus, we conclude that the focus of FDI policies in Egypt is misspecified. The challenge should not only be to attract FDI, but also to derive macroeconomic benefits from FDI by focusing on the sectors that derive positive spillovers of FDI. Finally, the determinants of FDI in Egypt are identified in chapter five to explore how corruption affects FDI inflows. The time series framework of cointegration and error correction mechanism are applied. Our results indicate a positive yet insignificant relationship between FDI and corruption in Egypt. Since corruption is not found to hinder FDI inflows, treating corruption should be based on sound legal procedures that infringe neither the freedom of FDI nor on the degree of openness of the economy, which are the real stimulants of FDI in Egypt.

Since energy price changes have been studies by much literature, this thesis tries to discuss it through the elasticity of substitution. More importantly, this thesis finds that the substitution effect itself cannot completely interpret the phenomenon of energy price changes. This is based on the results of the estimation of the AES, the MES and the CES, as well as some previous studies' results of negative substitution elasticities. This thesis adopts VECM, ADL and panel data as methodologies. Different data is also colelcted and analyzed. Most of the AES estimates are negative and the CES estimation shows many negative elasticities as well. The estimated elasticities from the MES and the Panel dta CES are positive. Out positive elasticities from the MES may are consistent with the previous literature that finds the MES estimation method is better than AES. The negative elasticities of susbtitution as the substitution effects are usually followed by income effects. Based on literature view, if income effects are involved in the energy price changes between energy exporting and importing countries, it may lead to new policy making and application. In addition, there are some other findings: (1) an application approach is used to test the cointegration when variables include I(0), I(1) and share variables. This approach is different from Pesaran, Shin and Smith's (2001) ARDL method which is involved I(0) and I(1) variables. However, in the application, the data being used covers share variables. Share variables sum to unity so they have collinearity. New procedures (ADL) are adopted to solve the problem of collinearity in econometric application. This then allows to analyze I(0), I(1) and share variables together in the model. This is one of our contributions in econometric VECM application. (2) By the literature review in Chapter 4, it's found that the elasticities of substitution vary from economies. Since some economies do not share free flow of capital, labor or energy, their substitution elasticities cannot be estimated as a whole. The different sustitution elasticities in each country show that, when selecting the data, we may refer to a region or a country with a common free flow market for capital, labor and energy. (3) Different data is used in the application. Previous literature uses the data of the UK or other countries to analyze the Allen's elasticity of substitution (AES), or the US data in the period different from that in this study, or uses the familiar data but in technology forecasting. Importantly, the empirical analysis uses the US data to test the Allen's elasticity of substitution (AES) and the constant elasticity of substitution (CES), in order to explore negative estimates of the substitution elasticity.

From a theoretical perspective, Islamic banking and finance is different from conventional banking and finance because interest (riba) is prohibited in Islam. The unique feature of Islamic banking and finance is its profit-and-loss sharing (PLS) paradigm. As such, the equity stock market mechanism follows this unique PLS paradigm without the involvement of riba, gharar and maysir, allowing Shari’a sensitive investors’ access to the stock market. But the problem is to identify the Shari’a compliant equity stocks (that are both Shari’a compliant in the capital structure as well as the underlying business) within the equity stock market. In order to assist the Shari’a sensitive investors, the Dow Jones Islamic Market Index (DJIMI) for the first time in history issued the first Shari’a screening methodology in 1999 that facilitated access to the stock market. Subsequently, a number of other Shari’a screening methodologies have been developed by other index providers, banks and regulators; all of them are derivatives of the DJIMI. The rules used in the screening process have not originated from the Holy Quran or the traditions of the Prophet Muhammad (PBUH), and accordingly are not considered absolute rules. These screening methodologies have been criticised in the literature for being imprecise, inconsistent, lacking credibility and on the use of Shari’a screening thresholds restricting the Shari’a non-compliant activities. The study is designed to address two main areas: 1) to examine the historical development of Shari’a screening methodologies to date, and 2) to investigate how the existing Shari’a screening methodologies can be enhanced for the benefit of the Islamic banking and finance (IBF) industry. A qualitative analysis is carried out in the first part of the study. A statistical technique of exploratory factor analysis (EFA) is carried out in the second part of the study. The examination of the first part of the study shows that the fundamental variables underlying existing screening methodologies should be based on actual interest income and interest expense as it’s the actual interest received or paid that is Shari’a non-compliant instead of on the basis of source of funds (debt, receivables). This part of the study also finds that the Shari’a screening methodologies were introduced as a need of the time under Maslahah (public interest and rule of exception). It was expected that scholars and practitioners would review and revise the screening methodologies over time to ensure adherence to Shari’a. However, they have remained the same while the Islamic banking and finance industry has developed significantly. Further examination of current practices, suggested Shari’a screening thresholds to be dynamic and ones based on the growth and development in Islamic banking and finance. Based on findings of the first part, the study conducted an exploratory analysis in the second part using different portfolios and screened them based on interest income and interest expense and compared with existing practices. It is recommended that Shari'a screening methodologies incorporate these screening filters in addition to the existing filters to ensure that the portfolio remains Shari'a compliant. Further, the study in the second part developed an IBF index using exploratory factor analysis to quantify the development in IBF industry in 41 countries. These countries were placed in five groups (leaders, developed countries, developing countries, emerging markets and least developed countries) and it was concluded that Shari’a screening thresholds for countries based in groups “leaders” and “developed countries” can be lowered to 20% and 25% respectively as the IBF industry in the underlying countries have developed significantly and there are sufficient Shari’a compliant stocks to provide the investor a diversified portfolio, while for other countries the existing thresholds should continue as the IBF industry in the country is still in early growth period and Islamic financing availability in the country is not adequate. In this way, the Shari’a compliant equity investments can go forward in a more effective manner and thus a move towards more dynamic and progressive screening methodologies, rather than the existing static ones.

This thesis investigates which factors drove the spectacular accumulation of household liabilities prior to the financial crisis of 2007/2008 in the United States and 12 other OECD countries. Two mechanisms are of particular interest. The first is the polarization in the distribution of income which can be observed since the 1980s in the United States and European OECD countries (Atkinson et al. 2011). The second mechanism is the increase in asset prices and in particular residential real estate prices, which is considered by some authors as a major explanation of household debt accumulation (Mian & Sufi 2011). Based on two different data sources, the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) and a macro panel of 13 OECD countries, an extremely robust result emerges: The residential housing market is the key driver of household debt accumulation. This finding strongly supports an asset-focused view of household sector debt and discourages explanations which rely on a direct link from the distribution of income to household indebtedness. There is some evidence that the income polarization contributed to higher debt-levels in the US but this positive relationship is conditional on homeownership. The interpretation of these findings is that real estate purchases represent the single most important reason for households to take on debt and even if households take on debt for other reasons, real estate collateral is often a binding requirement to be granted a loan. The thesis contributes to the existing literature in three ways. First, it is the first attempt to investigate the inequality as well as the asset mechanism in a unified framework whereas previous studies analysed them in isolation. Second, by constructing a borrowing measure from SCF data the unmatched coverage of the top tail of the wealth distribution of this dataset can be exploited. Third, the thesis provides some methodological insights when using survey data to analyse household borrowing behaviour: increased model fit by the separation of borrowing and non-borrowing households; necessity to separately control for asset purchases; disadvantages of growth rates and logarithmic differences.

Societies in the world have been struggling to redefine ways to general prosperity, although a general interest in a more human world order is constant. At the same time, cooperatives operate as privately owned for-profit enterprises having social purpose as their primary objective. The aim of this research is to investigate the potential of achieving sustainable development in enterprises operating under the cooperative principles to bring about human development and environmental improvement. The paradigm suggests interactions among environmental performance, economic results, social benefits and the ethical cooperative principles. Information on more than 1,500 coops was gathered in the EU countries of Croatia and Slovenia, and in one non-EU country Bosnia-Herzegovina and a survey was carried out among coops that were commercially active over a 12-year period from 2002-2013. After deploying the survey via email and through structured telephone interviews, statistical analysis was completed on randomly chosen 100 coops. The results support the main research hypotheses. First, the union of environmental performance and cooperative principles (EP&CP) confirm the existence of a relationship with the economic results. Secondly, the combination of environmental performance and cooperative principles (EP&CP) also indicate a relationship with social benefits. Above all, it is concluded that better results in economic and social benefits are gained in the group having positive Environmental Performance and Cooperative Principles (positive EP&CP) compared to the group where positive only EP was observed. This generally indicates the important contribution of Cooperative Principles to Sustainable Development. Using the survey data an innovative Cooperative Sustainability Index (CSI) has been produced as composite indicator measuring the success in applying ethical elements within two dimensions: the cooperative principles dimension and the environmental. Slovenia has the highest ranking score; Croatia shows less success at the second position; Bosnia Herzegovina has the weakest results. Sustainable development conditions across the Eastern Adriatic region demonstrate an interesting diversity in the environmental sustainability results among the states, but to a certain extent there are similarities as far as social and economic conditions are concerned. Paradoxically, socialism damaged social enterprises like coops in the post-WWII period in the Eastern Adriatic. This occurred not only because the socialist governments misinterpreted cooperative principles, but above all because democratic organisations like coops in a non-democratic society challenge the ethical orthodoxy. In the last few decades, the recovery of coops has varied according to their geographical location. As demonstrated, coops mostly positively prevent contemporary environmental degradation of the world’s resources but also positively contribute to economic and social issues; this puts them in an important position to reduce the inequalities produced by contemporary authoritarian capitalism across the world. In this sense, the first Cooperative Sustainability Index will find its future application and usefulness.

The BRICS (Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, China and South Africa) economies, as the major emerging markets, continue to influence the transformation of the global structure. Their role within the global governance and global economy is increasing day by day. This study is an analysis of the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) in a panel of bilateral FOI data from thirty-two the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (DECO) countries in the BRICS countries for the period of 1992 to 2010. Applying the extended gravity model with the home country push factors and the host country pull factors, the empirical findings of this study confirms that market size, distance, common culture, trade openness, privatisation, relative labor cost, research and development (R&D), relative exchange rate, infrastructure and institutional factors are the key determinants of FDI in the BRICS countries. Furthermore, bilateral investment treaties (BITs) are significant at 10% level for FDI flows. The home country corporate tax rate and bilateral export are inconclusive. In this aspect, there are evidences to accept that the motive of FDI in the BRICS economies is principally are market seeking, natural resource seeking and partly efficiency seeking type of FDI. Employing a standard gravity model, within limited scope this study also attempts to examine the impact of the 2008 global financial crisis on the BRICS countries' exports. The author use a panel data of BRICS countries' bilateral exports to the top ten major destination countries for the period of 2000 to 2011 by including a dummy variable to measure the impact of the global financial crisis. The result confirms that the coefficient estimate for the crisis dummy variable is positive and statistically significant at 1% level for fixed effects (FE) model. The result specifies that during the global financial crisis periods, the BRICS countries' exports growth rate increased relative to the non-financial crisis period. Furthermore, model approves that GOP growth rate and population are an also important factor that affects the value of the BRICS countries' exports.

This research used psychological well-being data on thousands of people across several countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) between the period of 2000 and 2013. It begins with data on the reported well-being levels of thousands of individuals in MENA and relates these data to the macroeconomic variables in each country. The macroeconomics variables to be analysed are the unemployment rate, GDP per capita and the inflation rate. With regards to the reported well-being levels, a random sample of people who live in some selected MENA countries were interviewed each year by the World Value Survey (WVS) and are asked many self-reported questions. Two kinds of questions are used in this thesis. The first is 'all things considered, how satisfied are you weuth your life as a whole?' where answers ranked from 1 being dissatisfied till 10 being satisfied. The second question is 'Taking all things together, would you say you are 1-not at all happy, 2-not very happy, 3-quite happy or 4-very happy'. Ordered probit equations are estimated in an attempt to relate the macroeconomics conditions with individual's happiness or satisfaction by measuring the real cost of unemployment on the population and measuring the effects of GDP changes in a country on the people living in that country. A further analysis to estimate the objective well-being situation in MENA countries and compare it or supplement it to the subjective happiness approach. Building on Sen's capability approach and taking into account factors such as life expectancy, inequality and corruption levels with the individual's happiness from self-reported surveys for the same set of countries in MENA. Two independent variables are the equality opinion question and the financial satisfaction question from the WVS. The first question is: 'Incomes should be made more equal?', where 1 means you agree completely and 10 means you don't. The other question is: 'How satisfied are you with the financial situation of your household?', where '1' means you are completely dissatisfied on this scale, and '10' means you are completely satisfied. The main goal of this thesis is to arrive with a quality of life assessment of the situation in the MENA region by combining a subjective approach presented by self-reported surveys with an objective approach that includes many social indicators.

This thesis explored two key aspects of growth, namely the role of financial development and external financial liberalization. In the case of financial development, it evaluated in chapter 4, how far the financial reforms implemented since 1977 was successful in increasing the level of savings and investment as postulated in the McKinnon -Shaw hypothesis. It employed an Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach (ARDL) to evaluate the impact of the interest rates on savings as well as on investment. In the case of savings, the modelling involved an unrestricted error correction model (ECM), a long-run level model and a short- run restricted ECM. To assess the impact of interest rates and savings on investment, a long-run differenced ARDL model was performed. Our empirical research confirmed that there was a positive effect from financial liberalization, both on savings and investment. In the case of external financial liberalization, it investigated in chapter 5, the contribution of outward looking policies on per capita economic growth. We employed a multiple linear regression model using OLS approach and regressed the per capita economic growth, as a dependent variable on some key explanatory variables including FDI inflows, bank credit to private sector and trade openness. We found evidence in support of our hypothesis that outward-oriented policies stood favourably in contributing for economic growth. We finally examined in chapter 6, further scope for greater external openness to contribute towards faster economic growth and development of Sri Lanka’s economy. Our conclusion in this respect is that unless Sri Lanka adapts several policy measures to streamline its macroeconomic environment and gradually build up adequate external reserves, it would not be desirable for the country to consider rapid opening up of its capital account in the current setting. The overall finding of this study is that there was a positive impact of financial liberalization on savings and investment, as well as of external openness on economic growth.

This thesis presents a theoretical framework for understanding the long-term behaviour of equity markets. The framework is informed by post-Keynesian theory. It highlights the importance of effective demand for equity valuation - alongside other post-Keynesian features such as a realistic institutional setup, the (in)efficiency of financial markets in pricing assets and the importance of income and wealth distribution for macroeconomic theory. In contrast to mainstream approaches dominated and constrained only by the logic of rational agents, a Stock-Flow Consistent (SFC) methodology is followed here. The strict accounting rules of SFC models guarantee that all assets, flows and price revaluations that happen in an economic system are booked accordingly, with no accounting 'black holes' in the logical structure. The SFC approach also permits an outcome in which the market value of assets differs from their book value, a crucial distinction that should be at the core of any theory for equity returns. This thesis makes a contribution to the post-Keynesian literature on the Cambridge corporate growth models. It is shown that this literature can be used as a starting point for developing a theory of equity markets with a more realistic institutional setup. The main features of the post-Keynesian theory for equity markets developed here can be summarised as follows. First, aggregate demand determines the return on shares and their valuation in the market. Second, Tobin's q is inversely related to the growth rate of the economy in the long-run and inversely related to the marginal propensities to consume. Third, Tobin's q can be different from 1 even in the long-run. And fourth, wealth holders' consumption decisions are a major driver of the equity yield in the long-run, a feature very similar in spirit to the Levy-Kalecki profit equation, but now applied to financial markets. I conclude that post-Keynesian theory can offer an alternative to mainstream finance and fill a gap in current financial macroeconomic theory.

This thesis assesses the applicability of the neoclassical "Solow" growth model to the recent experience of the countries within the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). The Solow growth model carries an implication that some key macroeconomic aggregates will grow at the same rate indicating a "balanced growth". Stochastic versions. of the model interpret balanced growth as stationarity of some so-called "great ratios". They include consumption/income and investment/income ratios, considered in Kuznets' seminal contribution (1942) for the US economy in the early twentieth century. Although Kuznet dismissed international trade as being of negligible consequence, the set of ratios examined here in the case of SAARC countries, are extended to include a trade/income ratio, in recognition of the significant role now played by international trade. The Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Jusilius (1990) maximum likelihood method has been used for estimating and testing long-run steady-state relations in multivariate vector autoregressive models. The empirical support for the balanced growth hypothesis is very limited. Econometric methods that accommodate the impact of structural reforms on economic growth still find only weak evidence for the one-sector neoclassical growth model. The study also investigates the extent of "growth convergence"- a property of the Solow model, within SAARC, by examining the stationarity of relative per capita incomes assessed by unit root tests and permitting structural breaks. It additionally employs Phillips and SuI (2007, 2009) two-factor growth model and the "flexible Fourier trend" method developed by Enders and Lee (2012). The study makes an assessment of regional convergence in the SAARC countries and identifies the consequences of non-convergence and hence draws policy implications for economic integration in South Asia. The results based on data from 1960-2011 reveal that the per capita output is not converging. The key methodologies employed developed from Carlino and Mills (1993) with modification made to them by Li and Papell (1999); Philips and SuI (2007, 2009); Ender and Lee (2012). With or without structural breaks, analyses of the SAARC5 data suggest that per capita output is not converging in these countries.

The aim of this thesis is to explore and study the interaction between the size of government and economic growth in Iran over the 1971-2008 periods. To achieve this aim, the thesis is designed to examine three models. In the first model which is based on Barro’s endogenous growth theory, we investigate the interaction between economic growth and government expenditures simultaneously by using Three Stage Least Squares (3SLS). In the second model, we investigate the impacts of government expenditures and the sources of finance of government expenditures on economic growth. This analysis is based on Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. In model three, we investigate the effect of the government budget deficit, liquidity (M2) and official exchange rate on price level in Iran. Over all, the major contribution of this thesis is to show that total government expenditures and current expenditures have a negative and significant impact on economic growth, but that investment expenditures have a positive and insignificant impact on economic growth. In the short run current expenditure have a negative and significant impact but, investment expenditures have positive and significant effect on economic growth. In the long run, investment expenditures have a positive and significant effect but the current expenditures have a negative and insignificant effect on economic growth. In the short run the interaction term for financing government spending through oil revenues is positive and significant. The impact of tax revenues is positive but insignificant and the impact of borrowing from central bank on economic growth is negative. In the long run the interaction term for financing government spending through oil revenues is positive and significant. The impact of tax revenues is positive and significant and the impact of borrowing from central bank on economic growth is negative. There is a stable long-run relation between inflation, budget deficit, money supply and exchange rate. Increase in budget deficit has a positive effect on the inflation rate in long run, but in short run increase in budget deficit does not have a positive effect on the inflation rate. Increase in liquidity (M2) has a positive effect on the inflation rate in long run and increase in official exchange rate has a positive effect on the inflation rate in long run.

This thesis is motivated by the over-arching question “what economic contribution do immigrants make to the UK”? The question invites several perspectives from which to answer and the thesis offers a survey of the literature relevant to these, with particular emphasis on empirical studies focussed on the UK economy. There is also a brief historical summary of the contemporary UK experience and policies regarding immigration. Comparative profiles of the UK immigrant and native populations are constructed from primary source data, namely various issues of the Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS). From this contextualising foundation, the thesis moves to examine two particular aspects of immigrants’ economic activity in the UK, using QLFS data as an evidence base. These aspects are a) the change in the average real wages of low-skilled immigrant workers, with native workers as a comparator and b) factors influencing the rate of immigrant entrepreneurship. The empirical investigation of changes in average real wages amongst low-skilled immigrants discovers a noticeable decline relative to the native peer group, particularly for males; proximate causes are identified. The investigation of entrepreneurial activity confirms a number of influential factors noted within the literature and adds to these some significant drivers that have not previously been identified.

This thesis empirically investigates two important aspects of the benefits of currency (monetary) union - the beneficial impact of eliminating exchange rate volatility on trade and the possibility of consequent economic growth - in the context of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Researchers on the GCC monetary union have mostly been busy in analyzing the viability of the proposed GCC monetary union and they focus on convergence criteria. In contrast to those studies, empirical estimates obtained in this study would provide valuable information to the policy makers who have been working towards the realization of the GCC monetary union. As such this study provides significant contribution to the literature of the GCC monetary union. Chapter 2 thoroughly reviews the optimum currency areas (OCA) literature (both theoretical and empirical) starting with the theories advocated by the pioneers of the OCA. Literature on the European Monetary Union (EMU), monetary unions and integration from African, Latin America, Asian and the prospects from the GCC countries are also reviewed. Chapter 3 empirically investigates convergence criteria and shock synchronization of the GCC countries. Results show positive correlation of the structural shocks (synchronized shocks) among the countries except Qatar. Chapter 4 estimates the impact of exchange rate volatility on bilateral trade between the GCC countries. Results obtained using the panel Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator indicates that the bilateral trade among the GCC countries will increase about 6.2 - 8.7 percent (depending on the volatility measure used) with the elimination of the exchange rate volatility. In the second part of the chapter 4 discusses the role of trade on economic growth (income) of a country and estimates the impact of trade on per capita growth rates of the GCC countries. Results based on the preferred sample period and using the panel GMM estimator indicate that a one-standard deviation increase in the trade (or openness) ratio would increase the growth rate per capita on impact by 2 - 3%. Based on these results we may conclude that the monetary union of the GCC countries would enhance trade which in turn would promote economic growth of the region.

he chief undertaking of this study is to investigate consumer debt decisions and identify the factors that may lead to credit card delinquency. We base the analysis on the UK and present a synthesis of these findings with respect to education and policy making. The thesis: summarises relevant academic literature and key policy debates; explores new approaches to decision making under uncertainty; makes a case for measures to imprOve financial literacy; employs the recently accessible UK Wealth and Assets survey (WAS) that is not yet the basis for published research findings in the area of consumer debt;1 uses appropriate empirical methods to discover the factors that increase risk of credit card delinquency amongst the 16-35 age group. With respect to credit card delinquency, the study concludes that personal demographic and socio-economic characteristics which have been found to be relevant predictors of fragile personal finances in previous research are relevant also in the case of credit card delinquency amongst young persons in the UK. Gender, ethnicity and education are discovered to be important determinants of the risk of delinquency and there is some evidence that personal attitudes to financial risk may also be relevant. With respect to financial literacy and policy making, the study concludes that there is a need for the Government and the policy makers to promote financial education across the population with emphasis on young adults, particularly males without Higher Education and ethnic minorities. Moreover, policy makers should acknowledge the presence of uncertainty in consumer debt decisions and incorporate seminars on risk awareness in the educational system and labour market.

Since the 1970's banks have been deploying Technology Based Self-Service Systems (TBSS) such as ATMs as a means of replacing human centred interaction with technology in the process of service creation with their customers. TBSS research on A TMs has been dominated by investigations focusing on the use of ATMs for cash withdrawals. However, in recent years, ATMs have evolved to handle new functions such as bills payment, cash deposits or funds transfer. Therefore, the generalisability of extant knowledge to these new functions remains un-answered. Furthermore, new fimctionalities have introduced the need to consider additional variables to those related to the traditional use of ATMs as means for withdrawing cash. One such variable that merits examination is risk, specifically the impact that perceptions of risk have on consumers' intention and ultimate use of ATMs. Responding to the above observations, the aim of this study is to examine drivers of intention to use new ATM functions. In order to address the above research gap, a theoretically grounded model is proposed. Specifically this study adopts the technology acceptance model (TAM) which draws from two general behavioural theories, the theory of reasoned action (TRA) and its extension, the theory of planned behaviour (TPB). Attitude, ease of use and usefulness determinants of intention to use ATMs for depositing cash found in TAM are expanded by the inclusion of risk. In addition the moderating impact of consumer traits and specific factors supported by extant research and the recommendation from expert informants are also includêd in the model. Data, obtained through a postal survey addressed to ATM customers from a Spanish bank: collaborating in the investigation resulted in 461 usable replies that were analysed using Partial Least Squares. The explanatory power and stability of the model are confirmed and the need for segmenting respondents depending on whether their age is above or below 35 year old is established. Despite there are similarities within the two segments (i.e., attitude and usefulness are found significant); there are differences that need attention. Inherent novelty seeking is found significant in the younger segment while risk is found significant in the older segment. The results make the following important theoretical contributions to the subject matter. There are confounding effects due to the lack of segmentation in previous research. Attitude and usefulness are significant for cash withdrawals and cash deposits while ease of use is significant for cash withdrawals but not cash deposits and risk is significant for cash deposits but not for cash withdrawals. The results from the present study challenges the view and results that demonstrates moderating effects. On the strength of the above managerial guidelines are proposed.

Credit risk is treated as a major risk in banks and has become more important with the 2008 financial crisis and the subsequent regulatory controls, mainly in the form of new changes in Basel II and the proposed Basel III requirements. The use of credit risk models grew in the 2000s due to both the use of internal models in Basel II as well as bank use for economic capital calculations. These models have a large and growing influence on how credit risks are managed, yet there is a gap in the current literature on how these models are used in practice. This research explores their use in banks to help provide academic and management insight into the actual use of credit risk models. An interpretative approach using qualitative case study was undertaken in three banks using face-to-face interviews with the key credit risk managers that worked in the methodology, decision making, monitoring, control and reporting areas. While interviews were the main source of data for the research, it was supported by observation and a review of documentation that related to the use of credit risk models in the bank. The research findings show the merits in examining the social, organisational and cultural constructions as well as the role of individuals in this process. This evidences the usefulness of interpretive research, which thrives on diversity of meanings as opposed to comparing just the technical aspects of the models as found in more traditional studies. This research provides a contribution to the academic understanding of the use of credit risk models not found in any of the studies to date. This includes new insights into the use of qualitative information, the use of expert judgement (including an element of gut feel), how model complexity can detract from model use and the importance of aligning models to the risk appetite of the bank. These findings are significant both from an academic and practitioner aspect as they open up commonly-hidden processes on how these models are used in practice.

The main purpose of this thesis is to test whether the quality of earnings improves the usefulness of accounting information in the decision making process. This is particularly important because the Financial Accounting Standard Board (FASB) considers the usefulness of accounting information as the primary objective of financial statements (FASB, 1978). To achieve this purpse, the thesis examines two interrelated subjects. The first subject of the study "The qualitative characteristics of accounting earnings and stock return" (Chaoter 3) assesses the impact of earnings quality on stock returns as a representative for the usefulness of earnings information. The research also attempts to extend the concept of earnings quality and its constructs based on the primary qualitative characteristics of accounting information from the FASB's viewpoint. Therefore, the study defines earnings quality as the extent to which reported earnings capture both dimensions of the qualitative characteristics of accounting information, relevance and reliability. Eight earnings quality attributes are characterized as either 'relevance-based' or 'reliability-based' to capture earnings information quality. Moreover, associations between earnings quality attricutes and stock returns are considered to test whether earnings quality information is reflected in the investors' decision-making process. The result indicates that all earnings quality attributes but one are associated with the returns of stock in the predicted way; the exception is conservatism. This finding suggests that the earnings quality attributes make accounting information useful for decision making, which is consostent with the FASB's assertion. In addition, comparisons of incremental explanatory power show that relevance-based earnings quality attributes explain more of the stock returns variation than do reliability-based earnings quality attributes. The second subject of the thesis, 'The effect of earnings quality on the value-relevance of accounting information' (Chapter 4), aims to link earnings quality constructs with the equity valuation model by assessing their effect on the relative desirability between the value-relevance of earnings and book value of equity. In this respect, the study investigated whether earnings quality constructs, systematized in the first topic of this study, are reflected in the equity valuation prcoess. This is an important issue, as the incorporation of earnings quality attributes into equity valuation models may provide more realistic estimates of the firm's value. The study conducts factor analysis on eight earnings quality attributes to construct an index of each earnings quality dimension for each firm-year. The results indicate that in portfolios of firms with high quality earnings (HH), the value-relevance of earnings and book value are respectively higher and lower than in portfolios of firms with low quality earnings (LL). Moreover, the study finds that the ability of earnings and book value jointly to explain stock price is significatnly higher in firms with high quality earnings information compared to firms with low quality earnings information. This finding confirms that earnings quality constructs provide relevant information in the valuation process.

This study investigates the behaviour of stock prices or stock returns in an oil exporting developing country (Iran). Following an examination of the role of the Iran stock market and oil revenues in the Iranian economy in chapter 2, the extensive review of theoretical and empirical literature on stock market efficiency is provided in chapter 3. Chapter 4 empirically investigates the efficiency of Iran stock market in weak form. Empirical findings from employing conventional and nonlinear unit root tests even in presence of endogenous and exogenous structural break pOints indicate that the daily Iran stock prices index follow random walk theory and Iran stock market is efficient in weak form. In view of the distributional characteristics of stock returns, chapter 5 models the volatility dynamics of the Iran stock market. Due to existence of risk premium, in this market investors with long horizon are compensated with high returns for bearing high risk. On the other hand, the empirical analysis shows lack of asymmetric volatility in the behaviour of Iran stock return series. In view of the dominant role of oil export revenues in Iranian economy, chapter 6 examines the possible dynamic relationship between the Iran stock market and international oil market. The results from adopting symmetric and asymmetric mUltivariate GARCH models based on underlying data generating process indicate lack of return and volatility spillover between Iran stock returns and international oil prices.

Being originally from the Dominican Republic, I am unfortunate to have experienced three economic crises and more than seven stabilisation attempts. I am also wiser, however, because of those experiences, and became fascinated by the recurring elements accompanying the crises: what economists dealing with stabilisation call stylized facts. I have also developed frustration by the way in which markets and institutions poorly coordinated in achieving stabilisation and preventing future failures. Even though we have learned systematically to deal with such devastating episodes, there is still much to discover about the way society and governments manoeuvre through crisis. How to design and implement credible and sustainable policies to lower inflation is at the heart of the literature. The essays in this dissertation will hopefully improve our understanding of, and ability to cope with, crises and the related stylized facts of stabilisation.

This thesis is concerned with the question of whether recently joining member countries are converging on European Union norms for per capita GDP. In par-ticular, we focus on the "convergence debate" that has developed within growth theory. In order to find an answer, we look for a testing framework that is coherent with mainstream theoretical models and we investgate why such convergence may have happened. Firstly, we employ a variety of approaches to test whether economies actually reach a steady state as a consequence of catching-up and we argue that, if this condition is not satisfied, convergence may not happen at all in the long run[sup]1. Secondly, we investigate the role of trade openness, motivated by the failure of early theoretical models to recognize its effects on growth. Again, we give particular attention to the the long-run and the supply-side of our economies. Empirical results suggest that there is evidence of catching up in the period under investigation, but no conclusive indication of long-run convergence. We also observe little signs the latter was caused by intra-EU trade openness which, in turn, helped growth. These findings are evidence that EU policies were effective in the short-run. Therefore, the EU should continue its long-run effort of guiding new members' convergence towards a common steady state. In particular, targeting foreign direct investments, as suggested by the existing literature, may be more effective than focusing on the integration of the EU goods market. Finally, the Solow-Swan growth theory proved a reasonable tool to understand convergence in the enlarged EU, with no compelling need to open the model to trade or endogenize technological progress. [sup]1This conclusion wouid invalidate the predictions of the neoclassical growth model.

This thesis attempts to investigate, theoretically and empirically, whether financial development (bank development and stock market development) has led to economic growth in Bangladesh, and it explores the important factors behind the evolution of the financial system itself. The literature survey in Chapter 2 argues that finance enhances growth while banks and stock markets are complementary in development; however the application to low-income countries is unclear. After reviewing financial sector policy and institutional background in Bangladesh in Chapter 3, a combination of various theoretical insights into one structural framework is proposed in Chapter 4. Our empirical findings for Bangladesh in Model l using the ARDL cointegration method are as follows. Both banks (quasi-money/GDP) and the stock market (number oflisted companies) have enhanced physical capital accumulation from 1980 to 2005. Using the same cointegration technique, growth in GDP per capita is found to lead to growth in banks (private-credit/GDP ratio). And there is a cointegrating relationship between banks and the stock market which indicates that debt and equity are complementary. The main message from Chapter 6 is that the finance-growth nexus can be shown to operate in the case of Bangladesh where banks are the main providers of finance. The key policy implication of Model l is that overall financial development (banks and stock markets) can lead to economic growth, while feedback effects promote further financial activity. We then identify and assess relationships that operate within the stock market itself. Model 2A begins the analysis of the stock market infrastructure by relating the number of listed shares to the value of traded shares or turnover (market liquidity). Empirical results in Chapter 7 for Bangladesh using the ARDL approach show support for cointegration from 1990Ql to 2005Q4. Model 2B then investigates the relationship between trading activity and price volatility on the stock exchange. Using a GARCH framework and Granger Causality tests, empirical results in Chapter 8 indicate that trading volume and particularly trading value carry predictive power for price volatility with daily data from 1995 to 2007. The overall conclusion in Chapter 9 is that to understand the finance-growth nexus in Bangladesh it is necessary to appreciate the essential role played by banks as well as the forces behind the stock market. The encompassing framework presented here along with its reinforcing and constrained features points to a growth-promoting and sustainable fmancial structure for central bank regulators to target.

This thesis is a systematic attempt to investigate two conjectures about the distribution of company rates of profit: that it should be log-normal (Gibrat 1931), and that it should be gamma distributed (Farjoun and Machover 1983). A large set of company accounts data is analysed, and partial support found for Gibrat and for a generalised version of Farjoun and Machover. The analysis includes a demonstration of different empirical distributions for different profit rate measures, a demonstration of power law tails in all measures of the profit rate, and a demonstration of size effects (differences in tail weights) in financial ratios. Annual variation in the overall skewness and kurtosis of profit rate distributions is shown to be dominated by variation in the power law tails. L-moments, a recent innovation in robust methods to deal with extreme values, are used in conjunction with a size-weighted sampling scheme to identify possible models for distributions of the profit rate at the capital level. Farjoun and Machover derive their hypothesis from a particular conception of the process of capitalist competition. A rival conception, that of Glick (1985), is tested using company accounts data and shown to be vulnerable to criticism concerning the scope of its data set, the test statistic employed, and its choice of profit rate measure. More fundamentally, it is also dependent on doubtful premises about the within-industry distribution of profit rates, as L-moment analysis demonstrates.

This doctoral thesis examines the association between social capital and local economic success at the level of the District Council Area in Northern Ireland. A number of challenges have had to be addressed to progress this analysis. "Economic success" has had to be defined as a series of outcomes. These outcomes have each been shown to be sufficiently distinctive to justify their being synthesised into an Economic Success Index which can provide a more comprehensive measure of economic success. "Local' has been defined as the District Council Area in Northern Ireland. That spatial parameter has constrained the data available for analysis. Cross-sectional and time-series data has had to be combined in one analytical framework. "Social capital" has been defined as one of a series of potential economic success inputs. A set of social capital indicators has been identified. In order to put the association between social capital and local economic success into context, clusters of other potential inputs have been identified. Their association with economic success has also been measured. The subsequent analysis of economic success outcomes, social capital and other potential economic success inputs, has revealed how internally complex Northern Ireland is. The region's heterogeneity has been proposed as an explanation for the relatively small number of inputs whose association with local economic success prevailed across enough of Northern Ireland's local economies to be statistically significant. Notably, social capital has been found not to have been associated with local economic success across Northern Ireland as a whole. This is in line with studies of social capital and economic performance at the level of large intra-national regions in the UK, Europe and the US which had found either no association or contradictory and inconclusive sets of statistical relationships. This thesis has analysed social capital and local economic success outcomes at the intra-regional district level. This has revealed that at a sub-regional level in Northern Ireland there was in 2001 a high level of co-terminosity in some areas between the presence of social capital and the attainment of local economic success. In particular, a sub-region of contiguous Catholic District Council Areas has been identified which was economically successful and in which social capital was also highly developed. Other conclusions drawn from this analysis are that: social capital in Northern Ireland was a distinctively Catholic phenomenon; by 2001 the West/East, Catholic/Protestant intra-regional differential in economic success no longer seems to have prevailed; a new geographical disparity appears to have emerged between an economically less successful northern coastal arc and the rest of the region; Catholics overall were more likely to have been living in economically successful areas, a significant improvement in their historic position of relative economic disadvantage; self-employment, which in 2001 was positively associated with economic success, was much higher in Catholic areas than in Protestant areas. The thesis has also generated two potentially important findings in respect of women: The presence of female small business employers was not associated with economic success, whereas women leaving the home to become economically active was. Cause and effect remains an open question in respect of these and other findings. However, at the very least this thesis suggests that the relationship between females becoming employers, females becoming economically active, social capital and economic success is a complex one which needs more research. This thesis unravels some of the complexity of economic success and of the functioning of social capital in a complex region.

The success of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in industrialised countries has led to the increasing recognition of their role in exports, and in transition economies, this is driven by private-sector-led economic growth. The objective of this thesis is to determine major factors influencing export propensity of Polish SMEs in an expanded European Union (EU). All investigated enterprises are located in the Gdansk province. This study employs the Logit model to explain why some SMEs are exporters (their export propensity) in Poland. The second contribution of this thesis is to find out why some Polish SMEs are non-exporters and will not even engage in future export activities (export aversion). The results of the study indicate that the essential sources of an enterprise's finance, the perception about major problems with respect to export operations and the actions taken to prepare for the accession of Poland to the EU are very important drivers of export propensity and export aversion. More importantly, the results show that the information about special foreign credit available for Polish SMEs and the number of competing firms in domestic market have a positive influence on their export propensity. A strong relationship has been observed between the extent of use of IT tools in distribution-marketing and export propensity. Our results also illustrate that the propensity to export is dependent on the capital of the firm and on profitability of the firm in the domestic market. However, our findings reveal that legal status of firms, the branch of economic activity of the enterprise, the firms with less attractiveness and modernity of products, the firms with little knowledge of EU members' markets and the firms with low technological levels are the factors influencing export aversion of Polish SMEs. Our results demonstrate that the domestic share of the market of the firm is significant in explaining export propensity and aversion. Our empirical results should contribute to policy makers' designing effective assistance programmes to encourage Polish SMEs in their exporting.

This thesis investigates, theoretically and empirically, the relationship among economic growth, financial liberalisation and poverty reduction in Pakistan, between 1970' and 2000, with the aid of a rigorous co-integration analysis. A literature review provides an account of the existing models and other poverty reduction strategies in Pakistan. An analysis of poverty trends (1970-2000) in Pakistan shows large variations in poverty indices during all three decades under observation, at both provincial and intra -provincial levels. Ruman development indices show that poverty is highly concentrated in rural areas. Among provinces, the rural areas of Sindh and Balochistan provinces are worst affected. The trend of poverty shows a high rise during the 1990s, a decade of slow economic growth in Pakistan. The rural poverty nexus is correlated to the agricultural land reforms and weak institutional mechanism. Ineffective public services delivery to the poor has been the result of weak institutional response. The gender poverty is also all pervasive in Pakistan, as rural women are found to be more vulnerable to poverty shocks. Institutional failure has been found to be the main cause of the rising poverty in Pakistan. To analyse the relationship between economic growth and poverty reduction in Pakistan, we used the Dollar and Kraay model (2000) that predicts that economic growth reduces poverty. Using annual data sets for Pakistan from 1970 to 2000, our results show a positive relationship between economic growth and poverty reduction in Pakistan. We also tested the impact of financial development and growth in Pakistan. The McKinnon-Shaw hypothesis (1973) implies that increase in real rate of interest will increase savings and investment, which will lead to higher economic growth. The co-integration tests of the McKinnon-Shaw model (1970-2000) for Pakistan could not substantiate the prediction of the model. With a significant increase in savings over the period under observation, investment failed to rise. However, overall financial intermediation plays a significant and positive role in boosting economic growth. Authoritarian governments and the nationalisation policies are largely responsible for the inability to transform savings into investment.

The thesis is an evaluative case study in the interpretive paradigm of five-years of collaboration between three universities; one Belarusian, one British and one French. The collaboration, funded by the European Union's 'TEMPUS' programme, was intended to strengthen institutional mangement at the Belarusian host university following its foundation in 1992. The research proceeded responsively, adapting to circumstances and conditions as it sought to remain relevant and use appropriate research tools to progress with the enquiry. Eventually four phases were completed including the production of a thick description Case Record which was referred (0 constantly in dialogue with informants in the phases of the research. The analysis of the case considers the relevance of the standard project cycle management blueprint by examining the formal project cycle in the light of rich contextual information and reflecting upon the project's outcomes (planned and achieved) and the activities performed. Insight into the social psychology of intemational cooperation is also offered by the case study, drawing from and building upon theories of project management across cultures. The study shows that many of the by-products of the collaboration planned in the original project description were of doubtful relevance and were transitory or superficial although some changes tumed out to have long-term sustainability. The findings challenge perceptions of good practice at project. institution and programme level, which others may relate to their own experience. Of particular importance, the research established that the project cycle itself introduced operational weaknesses and imposed limitations which prejudiced team and individual effectiveness. The Tempus project began better to fulfil its potential when personal and cullurally based objectives were taken on board as well as the official ones.