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The reduction in coral cover on many contemporary tropical reefs suggests a different set of coral community assemblages will dominate future reefs. To evaluate the capacity of reef corals to persist over various time scales, we examined coral community dynamics in contemporary, fossil, and simulated future coral reef ecosystems. Based on studies between 1987 and 2012 at two locations in the Caribbean, and between 1981 and 2013 at five locations in the Indo-Pacific, we show that many coral genera declined in abundance, some showed no change in abundance, and a few coral genera increased in abundance. Whether the abundance of a genus declined, increased, or was conserved, was independent of coral family. An analysis of fossil-reef communities in the Caribbean revealed changes in numerical dominance and relative abundances of coral genera, and demonstrated that neither dominance nor taxon was associated with persistence. As coral family was a poor predictor of performance on contemporary reefs, a trait-based, dynamic, multi-patch model was developed to explore the phenotypic basis of ecological performance in a warmer future. Sensitivity analyses revealed that upon exposure to thermal stress, thermal tolerance, growth rate, and longevity were the most important predictors of coral persistence. Together, our results underscore the high variation in the rates and direction of change in coral abundances on contemporary and fossil reefs. Given this variation, it remains possible that coral reefs will be populated by a subset of the present coral fauna in a future that is warmer than the recent past.

The reduction in coral cover on many contemporary tropical reefs suggests a different set of coral community assemblages will dominate future reefs. To evaluate the capacity of reef corals to persist over various time scales, we examined coral community dynamics in contemporary, fossil, and simulated future coral reef ecosystems. Based on studies between 1987 and 2012 at two locations in the Caribbean, and between 1981 and 2013 at five locations in the Indo-Pacific, we show that many coral genera declined in abundance, some showed no change in abundance, and a few coral genera increased in abundance. Whether the abundance of a genus declined, increased, or was conserved, was independent of coral family. An analysis of fossil-reef communities in the Caribbean revealed changes in numerical dominance and relative abundances of coral genera, and demonstrated that neither dominance nor taxon was associated with persistence. As coral family was a poor predictor of performance on contemporary reefs, a trait-based, dynamic, multi-patch model was developed to explore the phenotypic basis of ecological performance in a warmer future. Sensitivity analyses revealed that upon exposure to thermal stress, thermal tolerance, growth rate, and longevity were the most important predictors of coral persistence. Together, our results underscore the high variation in the rates and direction of change in coral abundances on contemporary and fossil reefs. Given this variation, it remains possible that coral reefs will be populated by a subset of the present coral fauna in a future that is warmer than the recent past.

In this study, juvenile colonies of massive Porites spp. (a combination of P. lutea and P. lobata) from the lagoon of Moorea (W 149°50′, S 17°30′) were damaged and exposed to contrasting conditions of temperature and flow to evaluate how damage and abiotic conditions interact to affect growth, physiological performance, and recovery. The experiment was conducted in April and May 2008 and consisted of two treatments in which corals were either undamaged (controls) or damaged through gouging of tissue and skeleton in a discrete spot mimicking the effects of corallivorous fishes that utilize an excavating feeding mode. The two groups of corals were incubated for 10 days in microcosms that crossed levels of temperature (26.7 and 29.6°C) and flow (6 and 21 cm s−1), and the response assessed as overall colony growth (change in weight), dark-adapted quantum yield of PSII (F v/F m), and healing of the gouged areas. The influence of damage on growth was affected by temperature, but not by flow. When averaged across flow treatments, damage promoted growth by 25% at 26.7°C, but caused a 25% inhibition at 29.6°C. The damage also affected F v/F m in a pattern that differed between flow speeds, with a 10% reduction at 6 cm s−1, but a 4% increase at 21 cm s−1. Regardless of damage, F v/F m at 21 cm s−1 was 11% lower at 26.7°C than at 29.6°C, but was unaffected by temperature at 6 cm s−1. The lesions declined in area at similar rates (4–5% day−1) under all conditions, although the tissue within them regained a normal appearance most rapidly at 26.7°C and 6 cm s−1. These findings show that the response of poritid corals to sub-lethal damage is dependent partly on abiotic conditions, and they are consistent with the hypothesis that following damage, calcification and photosynthesis can compete for metabolites necessary for repair, with the outcome affected by flow-mediated mass transfer. These results may shed light upon the ways in which poritid corals respond to biting by certain c

In this study, juvenile colonies of massive Porites spp. (a combination of P. lutea and P. lobata) from the lagoon of Moorea (W 149°50′, S 17°30′) were damaged and exposed to contrasting conditions of temperature and flow to evaluate how damage and abiotic conditions interact to affect growth, physiological performance, and recovery. The experiment was conducted in April and May 2008 and consisted of two treatments in which corals were either undamaged (controls) or damaged through gouging of tissue and skeleton in a discrete spot mimicking the effects of corallivorous fishes that utilize an excavating feeding mode. The two groups of corals were incubated for 10 days in microcosms that crossed levels of temperature (26.7 and 29.6°C) and flow (6 and 21 cm s−1), and the response assessed as overall colony growth (change in weight), dark-adapted quantum yield of PSII (F v/F m), and healing of the gouged areas. The influence of damage on growth was affected by temperature, but not by flow. When averaged across flow treatments, damage promoted growth by 25% at 26.7°C, but caused a 25% inhibition at 29.6°C. The damage also affected F v/F m in a pattern that differed between flow speeds, with a 10% reduction at 6 cm s−1, but a 4% increase at 21 cm s−1. Regardless of damage, F v/F m at 21 cm s−1 was 11% lower at 26.7°C than at 29.6°C, but was unaffected by temperature at 6 cm s−1. The lesions declined in area at similar rates (4–5% day−1) under all conditions, although the tissue within them regained a normal appearance most rapidly at 26.7°C and 6 cm s−1. These findings show that the response of poritid corals to sub-lethal damage is dependent partly on abiotic conditions, and they are consistent with the hypothesis that following damage, calcification and photosynthesis can compete for metabolites necessary for repair, with the outcome affected by flow-mediated mass transfer. These results may shed light upon the ways in which poritid corals respond to biting by certain c