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How can countries successfully engage in global production networks? We provide a Computable General Equilibrium analysis of the impact of FDI on global production networks in Textiles, Chemicals, Electronics and Machinery, dividing the world economy in six regions (China, East Asia, Japan, EU28, the U.S. and the group of Emerging and Developing Economies). Interestingly for the policy maker, although the four sectors have contrasting production technologies, their Chinese exports and imports still follow a similar trend: East Asia and Japan are Chinese main intermediate suppliers while the US, Europe and the Emerging and Developing Economies play more the role of final markets. FDI inflows have benefitted China and we quantify by how much they have raised Chinese wages, GDP, national income and export competitiveness. By contrast, being an intermediate supplier or playing mostly the role of big final market in the network is not enough to succeed in your integration with China. The extent of the (positive or negative) effects is very much related to whether the structure of production (i.e., sectors’ weight in GDP) of the different economies is similar to (and therefore more easily crowded out by) Chinese booming sectors. © 2021 The Society for Policy Modeling. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved., Education Department of Hunan Province, Social Science Foundation of Hunan Province, China Scholarship Council, Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, Depto. de Estadística y Ciencia de los Datos, Fac. de Estudios Estadísticos, TRUE, pub

The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) has been one of the most heavily debated issues in international economics over the last few years. We analyze its potential impact on the world, including both insiders and outsiders of the agreement, using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) under imperfect competition. In our simulation, TTIP consists of reductions of tariffs, non-tariff barriers and barriers to FDI. Our results show that the FDI component, which has often been neglected in previous studies, would contribute to nearly half of the overall impact of TTIP for the US and nearly one third for the EU. Insiders would heavily benefit from TTIP, whereas, it would be slightly negative for outsiders (Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, Southeast Asia and Other Advanced Countries), except for the big Asian economies (China, Japan and India), which would remain unaffected. The slightly negative effects would turn into positive with an “inclusive TTIP” (i.e., one avoiding third country discriminating rules and standards). An inclusive TTIP would benefit both insiders, who would gain more than with the standard TTIP, and outsiders, who would be better off than without the TTIP. Welfare, GDP, wages, as well as aggregate imports and exports of the world economy would clearly increase following either a modest or ambitious TTIP agreement. Our results suggest that policy makers should resume TTIP negotiations and try to strike an inclusive and ambitious deal., Real Colegio Complutense at Harvard University, Center for International Development (CID) at the Harvard Kennedy School, Real Colegio Complutense, Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, Depto. de Estadística y Ciencia de los Datos, Fac. de Estudios Estadísticos, TRUE, pub

2023 Acuerdos transformativos CRUE, In developing countries, the evidence regarding the direct and indirect effects of FDI on economic and financial performance at the firm level is mixed. To contribute to this literature, we provide empirical evidence of direct and indirect effects of FDI on firm’s performance, using return on assets (ROA), gross revenues and gross revenues growth rate as performance measures. We examine the private formal enterprise sector in Ecuador from 2007 to 2018. Our identification strategy relies on the use of the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) methodology for dynamic panel data which allows us to control for potential endogeneity, autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity issues. The results suggest that firms with inward FDI grow faster than their counterparts, and firms with higher amounts of FDI as a share of total revenues have on average higher levels of gross revenues. Moreover, we find negative horizontal wages and gross revenues spillover effects on gross revenues growth rates, but positive horizontal gross revenues spillover effects on ROA. There is also significant evidence of negative horizontal spillover effects in all economic sectors, whereas evidence for forward and backward spillovers is heterogeneous across them., Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España), Depto. de Análisis Económico y Economía Cuantitativa, Fac. de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, TRUE, pub, APC financiada por la UCM

2023 Acuerdos transformativos CRUE, In developing countries, the evidence regarding the direct and indirect effects of FDI on economic and financial performance at the firm level is mixed. To contribute to this literature, we provide empirical evidence of direct and indirect effects of FDI on firm’s performance, using return on assets (ROA), gross revenues and gross revenues growth rate as performance measures. We examine the private formal enterprise sector in Ecuador from 2007 to 2018. Our identification strategy relies on the use of the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) methodology for dynamic panel data which allows us to control for potential endogeneity, autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity issues. The results suggest that firms with inward FDI grow faster than their counterparts, and firms with higher amounts of FDI as a share of total revenues have on average higher levels of gross revenues. Moreover, we find negative horizontal wages and gross revenues spillover effects on gross revenues growth rates, but positive horizontal gross revenues spillover effects on ROA. There is also significant evidence of negative horizontal spillover effects in all economic sectors, whereas evidence for forward and backward spillovers is heterogeneous across them., Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España), Depto. de Análisis Económico y Economía Cuantitativa, Fac. de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, TRUE, pub, APC financiada por la UCM

El estudio que presentamos a continuación se centra en el impacto de los procesos de deslocalización internacional sobre la economía española. Delimitamos el campo de estudio al ámbito de las actividades industriales por ser éstas donde con mayor intensidad se han desarrollado este tipo de procesos y por su papel clave en el conjunto de la estructura económica. El lapso temporal escogido es el periodo 1995-2005, por cuestiones asociadas con la disponibilidad de datos. Aplicamos un enfoque de corte estructural y nos preguntamos por los cambios cualitativos inducidos por las deslocalizaciones internacionales en las manufacturas españolas. Nuestra hipótesis de trabajo es que las deslocalizaciones internacionales han afectado con mayor intensidad a los sectores de alto contenido tecnológico, contribuyendo a un mantenimiento del patrón de especialización industrial español., The study that follows focuses on the impact of international offshoring process on the Spanish economy. We delimit the field of study to the manufacturing activity because it is here where these processes have been more intense, and also for its key role in the whole economic structure. The chosen time period is 1995-2005, for reasons associated with the availability of data. We apply a structural approach and wonder about qualitative changes in Spanish manufacturing induced by international offshoring. Our working hypothesis is that international offshoring has hit hardest in areas of high technology, contributing to a maintenance of Spanish industrial specialization pattern., Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales, TRUE, pub

Since the launch of the Barcelona Process in 1995 and later the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership, economic relationship between the European Union (EU) and Southern Mediterranean has grown tremendously. Trade volume, in terms of absolute value, between the EU and Southern Mediterranean has grown to an unprecedented height. Although the value has increased, foreign direct investment (FDI) from the EU to Southern Mediterranean remains low. South-to-North migration has also undoubtedly increased given the fact that it has become one of the priority concerns of the EU. Development has taken place through these economic exchanges. However, economic development growth rate remains considerably low compared to that of Latin America and Southeast Asia. This paper discusses about the economic development dynamic of Southern Mediterranean in comparison with that of Latin America and Southeast Asia through economic indicators, economic openness and trade, FDI and migration flows and structures. It also discusses about the challenges faced by Southern Mediterranean and how the economic crisis in the EU may affect their economic relationship., Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales, TRUE, pub

Cuando se utilizan a los acuerdos internacionales de inversiones de tipo bilateral y regional, como principal mecanismo de atracción de inversiones hacia buena parte de los países en desarrollo, estos países están haciendo una apuesta equivocada, en la medida que tales acuerdos solo afectan al marco general de políticas y no a los determinantes económicos que son lo que finalmente pesan en la atracción de la IED, sin embargo, tal estrategia conlleva una serie de compromisos de protección irrestricta a las inversiones e implementación de políticas liberalizadoras. Todo este proceso reduce la capacidad de los estados de guiar a la IED hacia objetivos nacionales de desarrollo en general y de transformación productiva en particular., When developing countries apply international investment agreements like a main way to attract FDI, they are betting incorrectly because such agreements are only able to affect the general framework of national politics, but not to the economic determinants that are finally those with preponderance to attract FDI. However, this kind of strategy includes several engagements to protect FDI and to implement liberalization policies. As a result, states losses ability to guide FDI to national objectives related to development en general and to productive transformation en particular way., Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales, TRUE, pub

Este trabajo fue aceptado y presentado en la xviii Reunión de Economía Mundial, celebrada en la Universidad de Alcalá en 2016., Históricamente las relaciones comerciales y financieras sino-latinoamericanas han sido muy reducidas. Sin embargo, el reciente resurgimiento de la economía china ha significado el fortalecimiento y ampliación de sus relaciones económicas con el resto del mundo. En este sentido, la región latinoamericana y caribeña ha constituido una pieza importante de este proceso, en el cual tanto los aspectos económicos como políticos han jugado y juegan un papel relevante. El foco de análisis a lo largo de este estudio son los flujos de inversión extranjera directa (IED) de origen chino que han arribado al continente latinoamericano y caribeño desde 2000 hasta 2016. Así, la pregunta que se plantea en el presente estudio es si estas vinculaciones pueden categorizarse como cooperación Sur-Sur o relaciones centro-periferia., Historically, Sino-Latin American trade and financial relations have been very limited. However, the recent resurgence of the Chinese economy has meant the strengthening and expansion of its economic relations with the rest of the world. In this sense, the Latin American and Caribbean region have constituted an important piece of this process, in which the economic aspects but also the politicians have played and play a relevant role. The focus of the analysis throughout this study is placed on foreign direct investment flows of Chinese origin that have arrived in the Latin American and Caribbean continent from 2000 to 2016. Thus, the question that arises in the present study is whether these linkages can be categorized as South-South cooperation or center-periphery relations., Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales, TRUE, pub

Rationale The balance of payments and international investment position (IIP) are important because of the information they provide on economic relations with the rest of the world, which affect the national economy. Their analysis is of even greater interest in the light of recent events, such as the war in Ukraine and its impact on energy prices. Takeaways •In 2022 the Spanish economy’s net lending fell, owing largely to the deterioration in the energy trade balance. The services balance performed favourably, particularly in the case of travel services, which returned to pre-pandemic levels. •The negative net IIP continued to correct in 2022, standing at 60.5% of GDP, the lowest level in 18 years, thanks to GDP growth, the positive amount of financial transactions with the rest of the world and positive valuation effects. •Spain’s outward foreign direct investment and inward foreign investment in Spain recovered their pre-pandemic levels, with a notably strong performance by the non-financial corporations sector.

Motivación La Balanza de Pagos y la Posición de Inversión Internacional (PII) informan de las relaciones económicas con el resto del mundo y son relevantes por el impacto que estas tienen en la economía nacional. Acontecimientos recientes, como la guerra de Ucrania y su impacto en los precios de la energía, hacen que su análisis resulte todavía de mayor interés. Ideas principales •En 2022, la capacidad de financiación de la economía española disminuyó, debido en gran medida al deterioro de la balanza comercial energética. El saldo de los servicios evolucionó favorablemente, en especial el del turismo, que recuperó niveles previos a la pandemia. •La PII deudora neta continuó corrigiéndose en 2022, hasta situarse en el 60,5 % del PIB, el nivel más bajo en 18 años, gracias al avance del PIB, al importe positivo de las transacciones financieras con el exterior y a los efectos valoración también positivos. •La inversión directa de España en el exterior y la del exterior en España recuperaron los niveles previos a la pandemia; destaca el elevado dinamismo del sector de las sociedades no financieras.

Artículo de revista, Según la estadística de la Balanza de Pagos, España presentó en 2021 una capacidad de financiación del 1,8 % en porcentaje del PIB (1,2 % en 2020). Este aumento reflejó, fundamentalmente, la recuperación parcial del superávit del turismo, gracias a la mejoría de la situación epidemiológica, propiciada por el avance del proceso de vacunación, y el incremento del saldo positivo de la cuenta de capital, impulsado por los ingresos correspondientes al programa Next Generation EU. Esta evolución contrarrestó el deterioro del déficit de bienes, en un contexto de encarecimiento de la factura energética. Por su parte, la Posición de Inversión Internacional deudora neta de España se redujo significativamente —hasta el 70,4 % del PIB, el nivel más bajo desde 2006—, gracias a las transacciones financieras positivas con el exterior y, en mayor medida, al avance del PIB y a la revalorización de los activos financieros exteriores. Por el contrario, el volumen de la deuda externa bruta de la nación marcó un nuevo máximo histórico (2.329 mm) por la asunción de nuevos pasivos, particularmente por parte de las Administraciones Públicas y del Banco de España, si bien su ratio sobre el PIB se redujo gracias al crecimiento económico.

Artículo de revista, On balance of payments statistics, in 2021 Spain’s net lending amounted to 1.8% of GDP (1.2% in 2020). This increase mainly reflected the partial recovery in the travel surplus, thanks to the improvement in the epidemiological situation prompted by the headway in vaccination, and the widening of the capital account surplus, boosted by the credits corresponding to Next Generation EU. This countered the deterioration in the goods deficit, against the backdrop of the rising energy bill. Meanwhile, Spain’s negative net international investment position decreased significantly (to 70.4% of GDP, its lowest level since 2006), thanks to the positive financial transactions with the rest of the world and, to a greater degree, GDP growth and the increase in value of external financial assets. Conversely, Spain’s gross external debt reached another all-time high (€2,329 billion) due to the assumption of new liabilities, particularly by general government and the Banco de España. However, it fell as a percentage of GDP thanks to economic growth.

Foreign direct investment generates a number of benefits, especially for developing and transition countries, and, therefore, it is a major factor in economic development. Some of the advantages of foreign direct investments are technology and knowledge spillover, increased employment and competition and improved balance of payments. The aim of this research is examining the effect of foreign direct investment on income convergence of Central European transition countries. Regression analysis is used to test this effect. The results indicate that Central European transition countries with a higher inflow of foreign capital achieve more propulsive convergence towards the average income of developed countries of the European Union. The results of the research can be useful for the economic policy makers of transition countries.

How can countries successfully engage in global production networks? We provide a Computable General Equilibrium analysis of the impact of FDI on global production networks in Textiles, Chemicals, Electronics and Machinery, dividing the world economy in six regions (China, East Asia, Japan, EU28, the U.S. and the group of Emerging and Developing Economies). Interestingly for the policy maker, although the four sectors have contrasting production technologies, their Chinese exports and imports still follow a similar trend: East Asia and Japan are Chinese main intermediate suppliers while the US, Europe and the Emerging and Developing Economies play more the role of final markets. FDI inflows have benefitted China and we quantify by how much they have raised Chinese wages, GDP, national income and export competitiveness. By contrast, being an intermediate supplier or playing mostly the role of big final market in the network is not enough to succeed in your integration with China. The extent of the (positive or negative) effects is very much related to whether the structure of production (i.e., sectors’ weight in GDP) of the different economies is similar to (and therefore more easily crowded out by) Chinese booming sectors. © 2021 The Society for Policy Modeling. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved., Education Department of Hunan Province, Social Science Foundation of Hunan Province, China Scholarship Council, Ministerio de Economía, Comercio y Empresa (España), Depto. de Estadística y Ciencia de los Datos, Fac. de Estudios Estadísticos, TRUE, pub

This paper was proposed to analyse the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Bolivia, in its two periods of insertion, that correspond to two opposed paradigms that, with their peculiarities, have managed to attract significant capital flow to mainly extractive activities. For this purpose, the approach applied to the investigation corresponds to that of the neo-institutionalist school, which allows to elucidate the effect of the institutions on the behaviour of the FDI in the sectors of the national economy, using panel data techniques. The results show that institutions of the “market maker” type have only been relevant for attracting foreign capital to the exporting primary sector, while the other types of institutions play a predominant role for FDI., Este artículo se planteó con el fin de analizar los determinantes de la inversión extranjera directa (IED), en Bolivia, en sus dos periodos de inserción, que corresponden a dos paradigmas contrapuestos, los cuales, con sus peculiaridades, han logrado atraer flujos importantes de capital hacia las actividades extractivas, principalmente. El enfoque de la investigación corresponde al de la escuela neoinstitucionalista, que permite dilucidar el efecto de las instituciones sobre el comportamiento de la IED localizada en los sectores de la economía nacional. Para ello, se usaron las técnicas de datos panel. Los resultados muestran que instituciones del tipo “creadoras de mercado” solo han sido relevantes para la atracción del capital foráneo al sector primario exportador, mientras que los otros tipos de instituciones sí juegan un papel preponderante para la IED., Este artigo foi proposto com o objetivo de analisar os determinantes do investimento estrangeiro direto (IED), na Bolívia, em seus dois períodos de inserção, que correspondem a dois paradigmas opostos, que, com suas peculiaridades, têm conseguido atrair importantes fluxos de capitais para o extrativismo. atividades, principalmente. O foco da pesquisa corresponde ao da escola neo institucionalista, o que permite elucidar o efeito das instituições sobre o comportamento do IED localizado nos setores da economia nacional. Para isso, foram utilizadas as técnicas de dados em painel. Os resultados mostram que as instituições do tipo “criadoras de mercado” têm sido relevantes apenas para atrair capital estrangeiro para o setor primário de exportação, enquanto os demais tipos de instituições desempenham um papel preponderante para o IED.

This statistical note presents the methodology applied to compile the supplementary statistics on foreign direct investment in Spain by ultimate investing economy, according to the directional principle and using data consistent with the balance of payments/international investment position. Also, an analysis is performed of the most notable differences between the foreign direct investment position in Spain by immediate investing economy and by ultimate investing economy.

Utilizando datos confidenciales españoles de supervisión, este trabajo examina el efecto sobre el riesgo bancario de la complejidad geográfica y empresarial, y su interacción e importancia relativa, donde el grado de complejidad se basa en la estructura corporativa de las filiales del grupo bancario. Los resultados muestran que, mientras la complejidad empresarial genera un mayor riesgo, la complejidad geográfica genera beneficios de diversificación, por lo que reduce el riesgo. Sin embargo, la complejidad geográfica no es buena por sí sola, ya que depende de cómo se desarrolle. Una mayor complejidad empresarial en el extranjero en relación con la nacional puede contrarrestar estos beneficios de diversificación. En la misma línea, centrarse en el extranjero en áreas en las que el grupo no tiene experiencia en el ámbito nacional también se traduce en un mayor riesgo., Using Spanish confidential supervisory data, this paper examines the effect of geographic and business complexity, their interaction and relative importance for banks’ risk, where the degree of complexity stems from the corporate structure of banking groups affiliates. The results show that while business complexity results in higher risk, geographic complexity gives rise to diversification benefits, thus lowering risk. However, geographic complexity alone is not enough, as its effect depends on how it interacts with business complexity. Higher business complexity abroad in relation to that at home may counterbalance the benefits of diversification. In the same vein, focusing abroad on areas in which the group does not have expertise at home also results in higher risk.

En esta nota estadística se presenta la metodología aplicada en la compilación de las estadísticas complementarias de inversión exterior directa (IED) en España por última economía inversora, según el principio direccional y con datos coherentes con la balanza de pagos/posición de inversión internacional. Asimismo, se realiza un análisis de los aspectos más destacables de la comparación entre la posición de IED en España por economía inversora inmediata y por última economía inversora.

Artículo de revista, In 2020, the Spanish economy recorded net lending of 1.1% of GDP, significantly below the previous year’s level of 2.5%. This decline essentially reflects the impact of the health crisis on travel credits, which contracted sharply, owing to the restrictions on international mobility and on activity in accommodation and food and travel services to contain the pandemic. The widening of the secondary income deficit also contributed to the decline in net lending, albeit to a much lesser extent. These developments offset the improvement in the other components, which was particularly notable in the goods and primary income balances. Cross-border financial transactions were strongly influenced by the increase in the volume of Eurosystem asset purchases, as reflected by a large surplus on the financial account of resident sectors, excluding the Banco de España. By contrast, the financial transactions of the Banco de España with the rest of the world showed a large increase in its liabilities. Spain’s negative net international investment position increased to 84.3% of GDP, essentially as a result of the sharp fall in GDP and the decline in the value of external financial assets owing to the appreciation of the euro. Finally, in terms of GDP, the nation’s gross external debt stood at all-time highs (199.4%) owing to the contraction in economic activity and the assumption of new liabilities, in particular by the Banco de España, given the increase in its positions vis-à-vis the Eurosystem as a result of the implementation of the asset purchase programmes.

Artículo de revista, La economía española presentó, en 2020, una capacidad de financiación del 1,1 % del PIB, sensiblemente inferior a la del año previo, cuando se situó en el 2,5 %. Este descenso reflejó, fundamentalmente, el impacto de la crisis sanitaria sobre los ingresos turísticos, que se contrajeron fuertemente, afectados por las restricciones a la movilidad internacional y a la actividad en los servicios de hostelería y turismo introducidas para contener la expansión de la pandemia. La ampliación del déficit de rentas secundarias también contribuyó al deterioro de la capacidad de financiación, aunque en mucha menor medida. Estos desarrollos contrarrestaron la mejora del resto de los componentes, que fue particularmente destacada en las balanzas de bienes y de rentas primarias. Por su parte, la evolución de las operaciones financieras con el exterior ha estado muy condicionada por el aumento del volumen de compras de activos del Eurosistema, que se ha reflejado en un elevado saldo positivo de la cuenta financiera de los sectores residentes, excluyendo el Banco de España. Por el contrario, las operaciones financieras de este último frente al resto del mundo reflejaron un abultado incremento de sus pasivos. El saldo deudor de la Posición de Inversión Internacional neta de España se incrementó hasta el 84,3 % del PIB, como resultado fundamentalmente de la intensa caída del PIB y de la disminución del valor de los activos financieros exteriores debido a la apreciación del euro. Por último, la deuda externa bruta de la nación se situó en máximos históricos en términos de PIB (199,4 %) debido a la contracción de la actividad económica y a la asunción de nuevos pasivos, particularmente por parte del Banco de España, en el contexto de un aumento de las posiciones de esta institución frente al Eurosistema, como resultado de la aplicación de sus programas de compras de activos.

Este trabajo explora si la adopción de las tecnologías de la información y las comunicaciones (TIC) y, en particular, el comercio electrónico, tienen un efecto directo en la extensión y configuración de las redes de producción global, atendiendo a las decisiones de internacionalización e internalización de las empresas manufactureras españolas. Para realizar el análisis, se consideran las transacciones en el mercado final que tienen lugar a través del comercio electrónico, entre productor y consumidor B2C (business to customer), y también las transacciones intermedias entre empresas B2B (business to business). Los resultados confirman que el comercio electrónico B2C favorece en general la actividad internacional de las empresas españolas, El comercio electrónico B2B, por el contrario, promueve una mayor concentración geográfica de la producción. Estos hallazgos permiten afirmar que adoptar el comercio electrónico contribuye a la reconfiguración de la red de producción global, configurándose un proceso dinámico que vincula digitalización e internacionalización., This paper analyses whether the adoption of information and communication technologies (ICT), and particularly e-commerce, has a direct effect on the extension and configuration of global production networks, taking into account the decisions of internationalization and internalization of Spanish manufacturing companies. For this purpose, the final market transactions through B2C e-commerce (business to customer) and intermediate transactions through B2B e-commerce (business to business) are considered. Our results confirm that, overall, B2C e-commerce favors the international activity of Spanish companies. On the other hand, B2B e-commerce promotes the geographical concentration of production. Findings allow us to confirm that the adoption of e-commerce contributes to the reconfiguration of global production networks, describing a dynamic process between digitization and internationalization., Depto. de Economía Aplicada, Estructura e Historia, Fac. de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, TRUE, pub

Almost all economic assessments of Brexit conclude that there would be significant losses for both the UK and the EU. This paper examines the driving forces behind these results. We consider the strong economic relationships between the UK and EU both at the sectoral and macroeconomic levels that are at risk from Brexit. We review fifteen studies that explore various Brexit scenarios (hard and soft) and explain why their different methodologies and assumptions yield different degrees of economic damage. Our review concludes that GDP losses for the UK from a hard Brexit range from 1.6 to 7.8, while a soft Brexit would moderate the losses by roughly half. We also find that potential UK trade agreements with third countries could partially compensate for significant Brexit losses. © 2019 Elsevier B.V., Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (MINECO), German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, Depto. de Economía Aplicada, Estructura e Historia, Fac. de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, TRUE, pub

Este trabajo explora si la adopción de las tecnologías de la información y las comunicaciones (TIC) y, en particular, el comercio electrónico, tienen un efecto directo en la extensión y configuración de las redes de producción global, atendiendo a las decisiones de internacionalización e internalización de las empresas manufactureras españolas. Para realizar el análisis, se consideran las transacciones en el mercado final que tienen lugar a través del comercio electrónico, entre productor y consumidor B2C (business to customer), y también las transacciones intermedias entre empresas B2B (business to business). Los resultados confirman que el comercio electrónico B2C favorece en general la actividad internacional de las empresas españolas, El comercio electrónico B2B, por el contrario, promueve una mayor concentración geográfica de la producción. Estos hallazgos permiten afirmar que adoptar el comercio electrónico contribuye a la reconfiguración de la red de producción global, configurándose un proceso dinámico que vincula digitalización e internacionalización., This paper analyses whether the adoption of information and communication technologies (ICT), and particularly e-commerce, has a direct effect on the extension and configuration of global production networks, taking into account the decisions of internationalization and internalization of Spanish manufacturing companies. For this purpose, the final market transactions through B2C e-commerce (business to customer) and intermediate transactions through B2B e-commerce (business to business) are considered. Our results confirm that, overall, B2C e-commerce favors the international activity of Spanish companies. On the other hand, B2B e-commerce promotes the geographical concentration of production. Findings allow us to confirm that the adoption of e-commerce contributes to the reconfiguration of global production networks, describing a dynamic process between digitization and internationalization., Depto. de Economía Aplicada, Estructura e Historia, Fac. de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, TRUE, pub

Almost all economic assessments of Brexit conclude that there would be significant losses for both the UK and the EU. This paper examines the driving forces behind these results. We consider the strong economic relationships between the UK and EU both at the sectoral and macroeconomic levels that are at risk from Brexit. We review fifteen studies that explore various Brexit scenarios (hard and soft) and explain why their different methodologies and assumptions yield different degrees of economic damage. Our review concludes that GDP losses for the UK from a hard Brexit range from 1.6 to 7.8, while a soft Brexit would moderate the losses by roughly half. We also find that potential UK trade agreements with third countries could partially compensate for significant Brexit losses. © 2019 Elsevier B.V., Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (MINECO), German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, Depto. de Economía Aplicada, Estructura e Historia, Fac. de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, TRUE, pub

La extensa literatura macroeconómica que pretende explicar el ampliamente observado equity home bias ignora a las empresas internacionalmente activas. En un modelo DSGE que presenta la elección endógena de las empresas de ser activas internacionalmente —ya sea a través de las exportaciones o por medio de la inversión extranjera directa (IED)—, encontramos que las tenencias de capital óptimas de los agentes están sesgadas hacia las empresas nacionales. Nuestro hallazgo indica que la diversificación internacional no es tan negativa como sugieren las medidas empíricas del equity home bias., The vast macroeconomic literature trying to explain the widely observed equity home bias disregards internationally active firms. In a DSGE model that features the endogenous choice of firms to become internationally active through either exports or foreign direct investment (FDI), we find that the optimal equity holdings of agents are biased towards domestic firms. Our finding indicates that international diversification is not as bad as empirical measures of the equity home bias suggest.

Una década después del comienzo de la Gran Recesión, los desequilibrios externos, medidos por la cuenta corriente [current Account (CA)], se han reducido notablemente. Sin embargo, los desequilibrios externos medidos a través de variables de stock, es decir, la posición de inversión internacional [net Foreign Assets (NFA)], han seguido aumentando y han creado desafíos para la estabilidad macroeconómica y financiera. Hasta la fecha, los sistemas de alerta temprana se han centrado más en las variables de flujo que en las variables de stock. En este documento se analizan los efectos de ambos desequilibrios sobre las características de las expansiones, utilizando dos conjuntos complementarios de medidas, propuestas por Harding y Pagan (2002) y Gadea et al. (2017). Tras controlar por un conjunto amplio de variables explicativas, se identifica que el efecto de los desequilibrios de la CA sobre las expansiones es limitado, excepto cuando las medidas seleccionadas tienen en cuenta los desarrollos pasados de la CA o algún grado de persistencia. En cambio, la evolución de la NFA parece explicar mejor el tiempo que se tarda en recuperar el nivel de PIB anterior a la recesión, así como la amplitud y la acumulación de las recuperaciones. Estos resultados apuntarían a que las futuras políticas macroprudenciales deberían prestar más atención a las variables de stock para medir los desequilibrios externos, debido a sus efectos sobre las características de las recuperaciones., A decade after the beginning of the Great Recession, flow external imbalances, measured by the current account (CA) have narrowed markedly. However, stock or net foreign assets (NFA) imbalances have kept increasing and have created challenges for future macroeconomic and financial stability. To date, early warning systems (scoreboards) have focused more on flow than on the stock variables. To approach this problem, in this paper we analyze expansions using two complementary sets of indicators proposed by Harding and Pagan (2002) and Gadea et al. (2017). After controlling for a large set of explanatory variables, we find that the effect of CA imbalances is limited, except when the measures selected take into account past CA developments or some degree of persistence. In contrast, the evolution of NFA seems to be much more explanatory of the time it takes to regain the level of output previous to the recession, as well as the amplitude and the cumulation of the recoveries. Therefore, we conclude that future macro-prudential policies should pay more attention to stock variables to measure external imbalances due to their effects on the characteristics of recoveries.

El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar las diferentes estrategias de internacionalización empleadas por China desde el inicio de su proceso de liberalización económica hasta la actualidad, en un contexto en el que su modelo de crecimiento se encuentra inmerso en un proceso de reequilibrio. Resulta evidente que la relación de China con el exterior podría estar cambiando. Por un lado, el país parece reestructurar su perfil exportador hacia uno más sofisticado, dirigido a la innovación, y menos dependiente del input exterior. Por otro, la importante y creciente salida de las multinacionales chinas obedece a la voluntad del Gobierno chino de invertir en aquellos sectores en los que este país se encuentra en desventaja competitiva (materias primas, bienes de consumo, tecnología). Ambas estrategias buscan cumplir un objetivo de desarrollo interno., The aim of this paper is to analyze the variety of internationalization strategies used by Chinese firms since the onset of its process of economic liberalization until now, in a context in which China is adjusting its growth model to a new equilibrium. It is evident that the relationship between China and the rest of the world could be changing. On the one hand, the country seems to be restructuring its export profile towards a more sophisticated one, directed to innovation, and less dependent on external input. On the other hand, the important and growing exit of the Chinese multinationals is due to the will of the Chinese government to invest in those sectors in which this country is at a competitive disadvantage (raw materials, consumer goods, technology). Both strategies seek to meet a domestic development objective.

Artículo de revista, Según la estadística de la Balanza de Pagos, España presentó, en 2019, una capacidad de financiación del 2,3 % en porcentaje del PIB, levemente inferior a la del año previo, en un entorno en el que prosiguió la expansión económica, si bien a un ritmo de crecimiento menor. La evolución de la capacidad de financiación se explica por la reducción del superávit de la cuenta de capital, como resultado de la disminución de los fondos procedentes de la Unión Europea, el estancamiento de los ingresos turísticos en porcentaje del PIB y la ampliación del déficit de bienes no energéticos. Esta evolución contrarrestó la mejoría del saldo de bienes energéticos que provocó el descenso de los precios del petróleo. Las perspectivas sobre la evolución del saldo exterior de la economía se han visto alteradas bruscamente como consecuencia de la crisis sanitaria del Covid-19, y existe una gran incertidumbre en el futuro próximo acerca de la magnitud (e incluso del signo) de sus efectos sobre dicho saldo, en un contexto de drástica reducción de los intercambios exteriores de bienes y servicios. Por el momento, la información de Balanza de Pagos relativa a marzo ha arrojado una necesidad de financiación, por primera vez en ese mes desde 2012, que ha venido asociada a la fuerte caída de los ingresos por turismo a que han dado lugar las medidas de restricción a la movilidad adoptadas tanto en España como en los países de origen. En el caso concreto del turismo receptor, la evolución futura está enormemente condicionada por el ritmo de eliminación de las restricciones a la movilidad, que, a su vez, depende tanto de la evolución de la pandemia como de la percepción de riesgo, lo que podría llevar a la adopción de medidas de distanciamiento social voluntario por parte de los potenciales turistas. En 2019, por quinto año consecutivo, se redujo el saldo deudor de la posición de inversión internacional neta de la economía española, hasta el 74 % del PIB, el nivel más bajo desde 2006. Esta evoluc

Artículo de revista, According to the balance of payments statistics, Spain’s net lending stood at 2.3% as a percentage of GDP in 2019, slightly down on the prior year, against a backdrop of continued, albeit slowing, economic growth. Developments in net lending are explained by the reduction in the capital account surplus, resulting from the decrease in funds from the EU, stagnation in tourism receipts as a percentage of GDP and the widening of the deficit on non-energy goods, which offset the improvement in the energy balance prompted by the decline in oil prices. There has been an abrupt change in the outlook for the economy’s external balance as a result of the COVID-19 health crisis, with major uncertainty in the near future about the scale (and even sign) of its effects on this balance, against a backdrop of a drastic reduction in the foreign goods and services trade. For the time being, the information on the balance of payments relating to March shows a net borrowing position, for the first time in that month since 2012, associated with the sharp fall in tourism receipts caused by the measures to restrict movement adopted in Spain and in source countries. Future developments in inbound tourism, in particular, will depend greatly on how quickly restrictions on movement are lifted. This, in turn, hinges both on how the pandemic continues to unfold and on risk perception, which could lead potential tourists to voluntarily adopt social distancing measures. In 2019, the negative net international investment position of the Spanish economy decreased for the fifth year running, to stand at 74% of GDP, its lowest level since 2006. These developments, which represented the biggest fall in the last seven years, were underpinned by the nation’s net lending position, the positive amount of valuation effects and GDP growth. In terms of financial flows, excluding the Banco de España, the surplus balance of financial transactions of the Spanish economy was lower than in 2018, influenced by the

Artículo de revista, This article analyses the recent performance of the main Latin American economies (Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, Chile and Peru). Economic developments in the region have progressively been influenced by the global spread of the coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic. Although it has reached Latin America with some delay compared to Europe and the United States, it shows a similar pattern of dissemination. Moreover, the region faces this pandemic in an economic situation which had already beforehand shown signs of weakness owing to various idiosyncratic reasons, related in part to the bouts of social tension in the final stretch of last year. Some factors, such as high labour market informality and the improvable quality of some institutions, may act as amplifiers of the impact of the health crisis. From the economic standpoint, the pandemic is affecting the region through various key channels, namely the trade, commodities, tourism, financial and domestic demand channels. The national containment measures, the impact of the pandemic on the population, the global nature of the shock and the differential effects on the region are seeing analysts revise their GDP forecasts for 2020 notably downwards, with a balance of risks tilted to the downside. The monetary and fiscal authorities have responded, swiftly adopting measures. Although the region has in recent years consolidated progressively more robust monetary and fiscal policy arrangements, it has less monetary and fiscal space than at the start of the 2008-2009 crisis. Moreover, the Latin American economies, with the exception of Peru, have notably increased their external debt since 2008, though they have more international reserves than in the previous global crisis. Against this background, the resolute response by national policies should ideally be supported by a coordinated global response, led by the main multilateral agencies and geared to minimising the possible long-term adverse effects on the region’s econ

Artículo de revista, Este artículo analiza el comportamiento reciente de las principales economías de América Latina (Brasil, México, Argentina, Colombia, Chile y Perú). La evolución económica de la región se ha ido viendo condicionada desde principios de año, de forma progresiva, por la propagación mundial de la pandemia de Covid-19. Aunque ha llegado a América Latina con un cierto retraso respecto a Europa y Estados Unidos, esta presenta una trayectoria de difusión similar. Además, la región afronta la pandemia desde una situación económica previa en la que la actividad mostraba síntomas de debilidad por distintos motivos idiosincrásicos, relacionados en parte con los episodios de tensiones sociales del último tramo del año pasado. Además, algunos factores, como la elevada informalidad en el mercado laboral o la calidad mejorable de algunas instituciones, pueden actuar como amplificadores del impacto de la crisis sanitaria. Desde el punto de vista económico, la pandemia está incidiendo sobre la región a través de varios canales principales: comercio, materias primas, turismo, finanzas y demanda interna. Las medidas nacionales de contención, el impacto de la pandemia sobre la población, la naturaleza global del shock y los efectos diferenciales sobre la región están llevando a los analistas a revisar notablemente a la baja las previsiones sobre la evolución del PIB para 2020, con un balance de riesgos sesgado a la baja. Por su parte, las autoridades monetarias y fiscales han adoptado medidas de respuesta con rapidez. Si bien la región ha consolidado en los últimos años unos marcos monetarios y de política fiscal progresivamente más robustos, dispone de menor espacio monetario y fiscal que al principio de la crisis de 2008/2009. Además, las economías de América Latina, con la excepción de Perú, han elevado notablemente su deuda externa desde 2008, aunque disponen de más reservas internacionales que en la anterior crisis global. En este contexto, sería ideal que la reacción decidida de l

La evolución de la IDE ha ido conformando una geografía de las empresas multinacionales con nuevos inversores, entre los que se encuentran multinacionales de países menos desarrollados (emergentes) y multinacionales de propiedad estatal y fondos soberanos. Se ha ido construyendo así una estructura institucional de gobernanza global que se asimila a una economía mixta, que abre oportunidades para el avance de políticas públicas y de cooperación internacional en el cumplimiento de los objetivos de desarrollo sostenible., The evolution of the geography of FDI has direct implications in the global economy, where a portfolio of multinational enterprises (MNE) of a different nature coexists: From the traditional multinationals to those from emerging economies, State owned multinationals and sovereign funds. The coevolution of international and multilateral institutions, have created a multilevel governance structure of MNEs while policies in the international cooperation scene may be beneficial for reaching sustainable development goals., Depto. de Economía Aplicada, Estructura e Historia, Fac. de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, TRUE, pub

This study employs a structural gravity approach to analyse the impact of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) on bilateral FDI. We use the UNCTAD global database on bilateral FDI stocks and flows. To control for the heterogeneous nature of PTAs we employ three different indicators of PTA depth. We find that ’deeper’ or comprehensive PTAs (e.g. including provisions on investment, public procurement and intellectual property rights provisions) have a significant positive impact on bilateral FDI between partners. For instance, we estimate that the deepest PTA (with an index of seven in the DESTA database) is expected to increase bilateral FDI stocks between signatory countries by around 54%. We also show the importance and policy-relevant information contained in the structurally estimated inward multilateral resistance terms (IMR). We find that strictly domestic policies have a significant impact on the IMR, thus explaining the variation in the national barriers to FDI. As an example, we analyse the potential impact on foreign direct investment of the economic co-operation agreement signed by the Pacific Alliance countries (Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru) in 2012.

La evolución de la IDE ha ido conformando una geografía de las empresas multinacionales con nuevos inversores, entre los que se encuentran multinacionales de países menos desarrollados (emergentes) y multinacionales de propiedad estatal y fondos soberanos. Se ha ido construyendo así una estructura institucional de gobernanza global que se asimila a una economía mixta, que abre oportunidades para el avance de políticas públicas y de cooperación internacional en el cumplimiento de los objetivos de desarrollo sostenible., The evolution of the geography of FDI has direct implications in the global economy, where a portfolio of multinational enterprises (MNE) of a different nature coexists: From the traditional multinationals to those from emerging economies, State owned multinationals and sovereign funds. The coevolution of international and multilateral institutions, have created a multilevel governance structure of MNEs while policies in the international cooperation scene may be beneficial for reaching sustainable development goals., Depto. de Economía Aplicada, Estructura e Historia, Fac. de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, TRUE, pub

This study employs a structural gravity approach to analyse the impact of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) on bilateral FDI. We use the UNCTAD global database on bilateral FDI stocks and flows. To control for the heterogeneous nature of PTAs we employ three different indicators of PTA depth. We find that ’deeper’ or comprehensive PTAs (e.g. including provisions on investment, public procurement and intellectual property rights provisions) have a significant positive impact on bilateral FDI between partners. For instance, we estimate that the deepest PTA (with an index of seven in the DESTA database) is expected to increase bilateral FDI stocks between signatory countries by around 54%. We also show the importance and policy-relevant information contained in the structurally estimated inward multilateral resistance terms (IMR). We find that strictly domestic policies have a significant impact on the IMR, thus explaining the variation in the national barriers to FDI. As an example, we analyse the potential impact on foreign direct investment of the economic co-operation agreement signed by the Pacific Alliance countries (Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru) in 2012.

This study employs a structural gravity approach to analyse the impact of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) on bilateral FDI. We use the UNCTAD global database on bilateral FDI stocks and flows. To control for the heterogeneous nature of PTAs we employ three different indicators of PTA depth. We find that ’deeper’ or comprehensive PTAs (e.g. including provisions on investment, public procurement and intellectual property rights provisions) have a significant positive impact on bilateral FDI between partners. For instance, we estimate that the deepest PTA (with an index of seven in the DESTA database) is expected to increase bilateral FDI stocks between signatory countries by around 54%. We also show the importance and policy-relevant information contained in the structurally estimated inward multilateral resistance terms (IMR). We find that strictly domestic policies have a significant impact on the IMR, thus explaining the variation in the national barriers to FDI. As an example, we analyse the potential impact on foreign direct investment of the economic co-operation agreement signed by the Pacific Alliance countries (Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru) in 2012.

Artículo de revista, Brasil, México, Argentina, Colombia, Chile y Perú). El crecimiento de la región se ha caracterizado en los tres primeros trimestres de 2019, una vez más, por unos registros inferiores a lo esperado, y menores que los de otras áreas emergentes de referencia. Este menor crecimiento viene explicado fundamentalmente por factores internos (incertidumbre política y sobre las políticas económicas y problemas estructurales de bajo crecimiento potencial), si bien el entorno exterior tampoco ha sido favorable en términos de evolución de la demanda mundial y de los términos de intercambio. La mayor parte de los bancos centrales de la región han reducido los tipos de interés oficiales ante la ausencia de presiones inflacionistas, la existencia de brechas de producción negativas y el comportamiento relativamente estable de los tipos de cambio. El espacio fiscal es reducido en la mayor parte de las economías y en algunas de ellas persisten ciertos riesgos sobre la sostenibilidad de sus finanzas públicas. Las principales instituciones internacionales y los analistas privados esperan un repunte de la actividad en los próximos trimestres, especialmente de la demanda interna. Este repunte se basaría en la relajación de las condiciones financieras y en la mejora de las condiciones externas (menores tensiones comerciales) e internas (confianza de los agentes). En este contexto, el balance de riesgos está sesgado a la baja, dadas las dudas que persisten tanto sobre la disipación de la incertidumbre política y sobre las políticas económicas en los principales países de la región como sobre la mejora de la situación económica internacional. Este informe viene acompañado de dos recuadros. En el primero se analizan los canales a través de los cuales las tensiones comerciales globales podrían estar afectando a América Latina. En el segundo se describe la situación económica en Argentina tras el agravamiento de las turbulencias financieras durante el pasado verano.

Previous research using country or firm data has been inconclusive on the sign of the relation between domestic and foreign investment. Though several hypotheses have been formulated, the factors determining the sign of this relationship are not clearly identified yet. In this paper we explore the role of industry integration in determining the relation between outward foreign direct investment (FDI) and domestic investment by using disaggregated data at the industry level and several indicators of industry integration. The proportion of intangible investment is used as a proxy of horizontal integration and several measures of participation in Global Value Chains (GVCs) as proxies of vertical integration. The empirical results confirm that the relationship between outward FDI and domestic investment is very varied and differs across industries and countries. That relation is positive (complementary) for those industries with low intensity in intangible investment and high forward integration in GVCs –two features of vertically integrated industries– and becomes negative for those industries with high intangible investment (usually more horizontally integrated)., Los análisis con datos a nivel de empresa o de país no han alcanzado resultados concluyentes sobre el signo de la relación entre la inversión de las empresas en el exterior y la inversión en el país de origen de las mismas. Aunque se han formulado varias hipótesis, los factores que determinan el signo de esta relación aún no han sido claramente identificados. En este trabajo exploramos si el tipo de integración de la industria determina, de algún modo, la relación entre las salidas de inversión extranjera directa (IED) y la inversión doméstica. Para ello se utilizan datos desagregados de sectores productivos y varios indicadores del tipo de integración industrial. La intensidad en activos intangibles se emplea como proxy del grado de integración horizontal y varios indicadores de participación en las cadenas globales de valor (CGV) para caracterizar las industrias con mayor grado de integración vertical. Los resultados empíricos confi rman que la relación entre las salidas de IED y la inversión doméstica es heterogénea entre sectores y difi ere entre países. La relación es positiva (complementaria) en aquellos sectores con baja intensidad de inversión en intangibles y en los de elevada integración en cadenas de valor con predominio de conexiones forward (hacia el fi nal de la cadena de producción) —dos características de las industrias integradas verticalmente—. En cambio, resulta negativa en aquellas industrias con un alto grado de inversión en intangibles, característica más propia de industrias integradas horizontalmente.

How does domestic monetary policy in systemic countries spillover to the rest of the world? This paper examines the transmission channel of domestic monetary policy in the crossborder context. We use exogenous shocks to monetary policy in systemically important economies, including the U.S., and local projections to estimate the dynamic effect of monetary policy shocks on bilateral cross-border bank lending. We fi nd robust evidence that an increase in funding costs following an exogenous monetary tightening leads to a statistically and economically signifi cant decline in cross-border bank lending. The effect is weakened during periods of high uncertainty. In contrast, the effect is found to not vary according to the degree of borrower country riskiness, further weakening support for the international portfolio rebalancing channel., ¿Cómo afecta la política monetaria de países sistémicos al resto del mundo? Este artículo examina el canal de transmisión transfronterizo de la política monetaria. Usamos perturbaciones exógenas de política monetaria en economías sistémicas, incluyendo Estados Unidos, y el método de proyecciones locales, para estimar el efecto dinámico de dichas perturbaciones sobre los préstamos bancarios bilaterales transfronterizos. Encontramos evidencia robusta de que un aumento de los costes de fi nanciación tras una contracción monetaria exógena produce un descenso económico y estadísticamente signifi cativo de los préstamos bancarios transfronterizos. El efecto es menor en períodos de alta incertidumbre. Sin embargo, encontramos que el efecto no varía dependiendo del grado de riesgo del país prestatario, lo que reduce el peso del canal internacional de reequilibrio de carteras.

La integración en la Unión Europea (UE) ha impulsado la inversión extranjera directa (IED) hacia el Reino Unido, que mantiene un stock relativamente importante de entradas en forma de IED. Este ha aumentado notablemente desde 2005, alcanzando el 61% de su producto interior bruto (PIB) en 2017. La salida del Reino Unido de la UE y del Mercado Único probablemente resultará en flujos de IED más reducidos entre ambos destinos de inversión. El objetivo de este estudio es examinar los efectos que el resultado del referéndum del brexit, de junio de 2016, ha podido tener en la actividad de IED relacionada con el Reino Unido. Si bien los flujos de IEA son notablemente volátiles, con presencia de un gran número de valores atípicos, y con la cautela precisa por la escasa disponibilidad de datos temporales posteriores al referéndum, el análisis encuentra cierta evidencia de una disminución en los flujos brutos de IED entre el Reino Unido y la UE con posterioridad al referéndum. Esto se evidencia, en particular, en el caso de las grandes economías de la UE y en el de Irlanda. Con respecto a una forma particular de IED, inversión en nuevos proyectos (greenfield IED), se encuentra evidencia de un descenso en proyectos anunciados y gastos de capital en el Reino Unido por parte de otros países de la UE en el período posterior al referéndum, así como en la inversión proveniente de Estados Unidos, uno de los socios más importantes no pertenecientes a la UE. (...), European Union (EU) integration has boosted inward EU foreign direct investment (FDI) into the United Kingdom (UK). Within the EU, the UK has a relatively significant stock of inward FDI, having reached 61% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2017 and risen strongly since 2005. The exit of the UK from the EU and the Single Market will probably result in reduced FDI amongst both investment destinations. The aim of this study is to look at the “real-time” effects of the Brexit June 2016 referendum outcome and its aftermath on UK-related FDI activity. Although FDI flows are notably volatile and biased by periodic non-systematic outliers, and despite some caveats on data sources and availability of time series data, we find tentative evidence of a post-referendum slowdown in gross FDI flows between the UK and the EU, notably involving the big EU economies and Ireland. Regarding a very favoured form of FDI, greenfield FDI, we document a post-referendum fall in announced projects and capital expenditures into the UK by both other EU countries as well as one of the most important non-EU partners, the United States. (...)

Artículo de revista, Este artículo realiza un repaso del comportamiento reciente de las principales economías de América Latina, en un entorno exterior complicado, por la desaceleración de la economía mundial y por la incertidumbre asociada a las tensiones comerciales. El crecimiento en 2018 se situó por debajo del de 2017 y del proyectado a principios de año, principalmente por la fuerte recesión en Argentina y por una recuperación más lenta de lo esperado en Brasil. En 2019 se espera una evolución más positiva de la actividad en estos países, pero una desaceleración en México. Además, los riesgos se siguen situando predominantemente a la baja. Entre los riesgos internos, destaca la incertidumbre sobre las políticas económicas que se llevarán a cabo en Brasil y en México, que serán objeto de un análisis más pormenorizado en el presente documento. Junto con este artículo se publicarán otros dos referidos a aspectos específicos del comportamiento de las economías latinoamericanas: «Flujos de capitales a emergentes: evolución reciente y determinantes» y «El impacto de China sobre América Latina: los canales comerciales y de inversión extranjera directa».

Artículo de revista, This article reviews the recent performance of the main Latin American economies, in a difficult external environment, owing to the slowdown in the world economy and the uncertainty associated with trade tensions. Growth in 2018 was lower than in 2017 and lower than projected at the start of the year, primarily on account of the severe recession in Argentina and a slower than expected recovery in Brazil. Activity is expected to be more positive in these countries in 2019, but a slowdown is forecast in Mexico. In addition, the risks remain predominantly on the downside. Among the internal risks, the uncertainty surrounding the economic policies to be implemented in Brazil and Mexico stands out. This issue is analysed in detail in this article. Two other articles on specific aspects of the performance of the Latin American economies will be published together with this one: “Capital flows to emerging economies: recent developments and drivers”, and “The impact of China on Latin America: trade and foreign direct investment channels”

Artículo de revista, This article analyses the recent performance of the main Latin American economies (Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, Chile and Peru). In the first three quarters of 2019 the region’s growth was once again lower than expected and below that of other emerging areas of reference. This lower growth is essentially explained by domestic factors (political and economic policy uncertainty and structural problems of low potential growth), although the external environment has not been favourable either in terms of developments in world demand and in the terms of trade. Most central banks in the region have reduced policy interest rates given the absence of inflationary pressures, the existence of negative output gaps and the relatively stable performance of exchange rates. Fiscal space is limited in most of the economies and certain risks to the sustainability of their public finances persist in some of them. The main international organisations and private institutions expect activity to rise in the coming quarters, especially domestic demand. This would be based on looser financial conditions and improved external conditions (lower trade tensions) and domestic conditions (agents’ confidence). In this setting, the balance of risks is tilted downwards, given the persisting doubts about economic policies in the main countries in the region and about the dissipation of political uncertainty, and about the improvement of the international economic situation. This report includes two boxes. Box 1 analyses the channels which could be transmitting global trade tensions to Latin America. Box 2 describes the economic situation in Argentina after the worsening of the financial turmoil last summer.

The issue of foreign direct investment is becoming an increasingly discussed topic in terms of possibilities of influencing their volume and their benefits for the national economy as well. Foreign direct investment can have a numerous impact on the host economy. It can influence the labor market, increase competitiveness, bring new management practices, know-how, innovation or interconnection of national economies. Investments can also have negative impacts on the national economy such as crowding out domestic businesses or inequality of investment inflows into different industries. The aim of the paper is based on empirical studies define the possible factors influencing the inflow of foreign direct investment into the country and identify the specific factors influencing the inflow of foreign direct investment into the Czech Republic. Using multiple regression analysis, the Expenditure on science and research, Gross domestic product, Corporation tax, and the Corruption perception index were identified as significant factors influencing foreign direct investment in the Czech Republic.

Este trabajo fue aceptado y presentado en la xviii Reunión de Economía Mundial, celebrada en la Universidad de Alcalá en 2016., Históricamente las relaciones comerciales y financieras sino-latinoamericanas han sido muy reducidas. Sin embargo, el reciente resurgimiento de la economía china ha significado el fortalecimiento y ampliación de sus relaciones económicas con el resto del mundo. En este sentido, la región latinoamericana y caribeña ha constituido una pieza importante de este proceso, en el cual tanto los aspectos económicos como políticos han jugado y juegan un papel relevante. El foco de análisis a lo largo de este estudio son los flujos de inversión extranjera directa (IED) de origen chino que han arribado al continente latinoamericano y caribeño desde 2000 hasta 2016. Así, la pregunta que se plantea en el presente estudio es si estas vinculaciones pueden categorizarse como cooperación Sur-Sur o relaciones centro-periferia., Historically, Sino-Latin American trade and financial relations have been very limited. However, the recent resurgence of the Chinese economy has meant the strengthening and expansion of its economic relations with the rest of the world. In this sense, the Latin American and Caribbean region have constituted an important piece of this process, in which the economic aspects but also the politicians have played and play a relevant role. The focus of the analysis throughout this study is placed on foreign direct investment flows of Chinese origin that have arrived in the Latin American and Caribbean continent from 2000 to 2016. Thus, the question that arises in the present study is whether these linkages can be categorized as South-South cooperation or center-periphery relations., Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales (ICEI), TRUE, pub

This paper analyzes one of the features of the Chinese economic transition, namely, the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) accruing to advanced services sectors. To that aim we use an innovative computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that includes, in a multi-regional setting, foreign multinationals operating in monopolistic competition. The model is based on data that split the world economy in 2016 into 11 regions (China - US - EU27 - Great Britain -other advanced economies - India - Japan - South East Asia - Latin America - Middle East - Sub Saharan Africa) and 21 sectors. We provide quantitative evidence on several characteristics of the 21 sectors in China, EU27 and the US, as well as other data on the role of China in the global stage, including its evolution since 2004. Several scenarios focusing on the increase of FDI inflows in services, because of the reduction of its FDI barriers, are simulated deriving short and long run results. We find that the impact of more foreign multinationals in services is positive for China but smaller than the one that had been obtained in other previous studies on FDI in manufactures. This is due to the still limited role of services in the Chinese economy and to a crowding out effect that domestic firms experience after the entry of foreign multinationals. On the whole the impact is, however, slightly positive for China, because manufactures benefit from the entry of foreign services multinationals. The rest of regions are unaffected or benefit very slightly, due to the fact that services production is less export oriented and more devoted to private consumption than in the case of manufactures. However, their manufacturing sectors are slightly harmed by the stronger Chinese competition. Many of them manage to more than offset this latter trend through higher exports or FDI in services directed to China., Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (MINECO), Development and Reform Commission of Hunan Provinc of China, Depto. de Economía Aplicada, Estructura e Historia, Fac. de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, TRUE, pub

The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) has been one of the most heavily debated issues in international economics over the last few years. We analyze its potential impact on the world, including both insiders and outsiders of the agreement, using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) under imperfect competition. In our simulation, TTIP consists of reductions of tariffs, non-tariff barriers and barriers to FDI. Our results show that the FDI component, which has often been neglected in previous studies, would contribute to nearly half of the overall impact of TTIP for the US and nearly one third for the EU. Insiders would heavily benefit from TTIP, whereas, it would be slightly negative for outsiders (Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, Southeast Asia and Other Advanced Countries), except for the big Asian economies (China, Japan and India), which would remain unaffected. The slightly negative effects would turn into positive with an “inclusive TTIP” (i.e., one avoiding third country discriminating rules and standards). An inclusive TTIP would benefit both insiders, who would gain more than with the standard TTIP, and outsiders, who would be better off than without the TTIP. Welfare, GDP, wages, as well as aggregate imports and exports of the world economy would clearly increase following either a modest or ambitious TTIP agreement. Our results suggest that policy makers should resume TTIP negotiations and try to strike an inclusive and ambitious deal., Real Colegio Complutense at Harvard University, Harvard Kennedy School, Real Colegio Complutense, Ministerio de Economía, Comercio y Empresa (España), Depto. de Estadística y Ciencia de los Datos, Fac. de Estudios Estadísticos, TRUE, pub

This paper analyzes one of the features of the Chinese economic transition, namely, the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) accruing to advanced services sectors. To that aim we use an innovative computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that includes, in a multi-regional setting, foreign multinationals operating in monopolistic competition. The model is based on data that split the world economy in 2016 into 11 regions (China - US - EU27 - Great Britain -other advanced economies - India - Japan - South East Asia - Latin America - Middle East - Sub Saharan Africa) and 21 sectors. We provide quantitative evidence on several characteristics of the 21 sectors in China, EU27 and the US, as well as other data on the role of China in the global stage, including its evolution since 2004. Several scenarios focusing on the increase of FDI inflows in services, because of the reduction of its FDI barriers, are simulated deriving short and long run results. We find that the impact of more foreign multinationals in services is positive for China but smaller than the one that had been obtained in other previous studies on FDI in manufactures. This is due to the still limited role of services in the Chinese economy and to a crowding out effect that domestic firms experience after the entry of foreign multinationals. On the whole the impact is, however, slightly positive for China, because manufactures benefit from the entry of foreign services multinationals. The rest of regions are unaffected or benefit very slightly, due to the fact that services production is less export oriented and more devoted to private consumption than in the case of manufactures. However, their manufacturing sectors are slightly harmed by the stronger Chinese competition. Many of them manage to more than offset this latter trend through higher exports or FDI in services directed to China., Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (MINECO), Development and Reform Commission of Hunan Provinc of China, Depto. de Economía Aplicada, Estructura e Historia, Fac. de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, TRUE, pub

We analyze the optimal design and implications of international investment agreements. These are ubiquitous, potent and heavily criticized state-to-state treaties that compensate foreign investors against host country policies. Optimal agreements cause national but not global underregulation (""regulatory chill""). The incentives to form agreements and their distributional consequences depend on countries’ unilateral commitment possibilities and the direction of investment flows. Foreign investors benefit from agreements between developed countries at the expense of the rest of society, but not in the case of agreements between developed and developing countries.

This paper investigates the role of cultural proximity (CP) on greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI). We build a conceptual framework that explicitly accounts for the asymmetric dimensions in the cultural relationship between two countries, and single out a symmetric element (similarity) and an asymmetric one (attractiveness) within a broad notion of CP. We use bilateral trade in cultural goods to proxy for asymmetric and time-dependent CP. We revisit the existing supply/origin-side theories of bilateral FDI to derive a gravity equation suited for testing the impact of both directions of asymmetric CP. To this end, we introduce several ‘destination-side’ mechanisms to rationalize the potential role of the origin’s culture attractiveness for the country that hosts the investment project. The econometric analysis confirms a positive role of asymmetric CP as a determinant of Greenfield FDI, and suggests a stronger contribution of the destination-side channels.