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1. Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Author: Pereira, H.M., Martins, I.S., Rosa, I., Kim, H., Leadley, P., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D., Hurtt, G., Quoss, L., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Bakkenes, M., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., Di Marco, M., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Guerra, C., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J., Hill, S., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A., Humpenöder, F., Janse, J., Jetz, W., Johnson, J., Krause, A., Leclere, D., Matsui, T., Meijer, J., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., De Palma, A., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A., Settele, J., Sharp, R., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B., Takahashi, K., Talluto, M., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F., Alkemade, R., Pereira, H.M., Martins, I.S., Rosa, I., Kim, H., Leadley, P., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D., Hurtt, G., Quoss, L., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Bakkenes, M., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., Di Marco, M., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Guerra, C., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J., Hill, S., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A., Humpenöder, F., Janse, J., Jetz, W., Johnson, J., Krause, A., Leclere, D., Matsui, T., Meijer, J., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., De Palma, A., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A., Settele, J., Sharp, R., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B., Takahashi, K., Talluto, M., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F., and Alkemade, R.
Abstract: Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.
Published: 2024
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2. Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Author: Pereira, H.M., Martins, I.S., Rosa, I., Kim, H., Leadley, P., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D., Hurtt, G., Quoss, L., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Bakkenes, M., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., Di Marco, M., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Guerra, C., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J., Hill, S., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A., Humpenöder, F., Janse, J., Jetz, W., Johnson, J., Krause, A., Leclere, D., Matsui, T., Meijer, J., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., De Palma, A., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A., Settele, J., Sharp, R., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B., Takahashi, K., Talluto, M., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F., Alkemade, R., Pereira, H.M., Martins, I.S., Rosa, I., Kim, H., Leadley, P., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D., Hurtt, G., Quoss, L., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Bakkenes, M., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., Di Marco, M., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Guerra, C., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J., Hill, S., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A., Humpenöder, F., Janse, J., Jetz, W., Johnson, J., Krause, A., Leclere, D., Matsui, T., Meijer, J., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., De Palma, A., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A., Settele, J., Sharp, R., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B., Takahashi, K., Talluto, M., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F., and Alkemade, R.
Abstract: Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.
Published: 2024
Full Text: View/download PDF

3. Towards a better future for biodiversity and people: Modelling Nature Futures

Author: Kim, H., Peterson, G., Cheung, W., Ferrier, S., Alkemade, R., Arneth, A., Kuiper, J., Okayasu, S., Pereira, L., Acosta, L., Chaplin-Kramer, R., den Belder, E., Eddy, T., Johnson, J., Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S., Kok, M., Leadley, P., Leclere, D., Lundquist, C., Rondinini, C., Scholes, R., Schoolenberg, M., Shin, Y.-J., Stehfest, E., Stephenson, F., Visconti, P., van Vuuren, D., Wabnitz, C., José Alava, J., Cuadros-Casanova, I., Davies, K., Gasalla, M., Halouani, G., Harfoot, M., Hashimoto, S., Hickler, T., Hirsch, T., Kolomytsev, G., Miller, B., Ohashi, H., Gabriela Palomo, M., Popp, A., Paco Remme, R., Saito, O., Rashid Sumalia, U., Willcock, S., Pereira, H., Kim, H., Peterson, G., Cheung, W., Ferrier, S., Alkemade, R., Arneth, A., Kuiper, J., Okayasu, S., Pereira, L., Acosta, L., Chaplin-Kramer, R., den Belder, E., Eddy, T., Johnson, J., Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S., Kok, M., Leadley, P., Leclere, D., Lundquist, C., Rondinini, C., Scholes, R., Schoolenberg, M., Shin, Y.-J., Stehfest, E., Stephenson, F., Visconti, P., van Vuuren, D., Wabnitz, C., José Alava, J., Cuadros-Casanova, I., Davies, K., Gasalla, M., Halouani, G., Harfoot, M., Hashimoto, S., Hickler, T., Hirsch, T., Kolomytsev, G., Miller, B., Ohashi, H., Gabriela Palomo, M., Popp, A., Paco Remme, R., Saito, O., Rashid Sumalia, U., Willcock, S., and Pereira, H.
Abstract: The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a heuristic tool for co-creating positive futures for nature and people. It seeks to open up a diversity of futures through mainly three value perspectives on nature – Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, and Nature as Culture. This paper describes how the NFF can be applied in modelling to support decision-making. First, we describe key considerations for the NFF in developing qualitative and quantitative scenarios: i) multiple value perspectives on nature as a state space where pathways improving nature toward a frontier can be represented, ii) mutually reinforcing key feedbacks of social-ecological systems that are important for nature conservation and human wellbeing, iii) indicators of multiple knowledge systems describing the evolution of complex social-ecological dynamics. We then present three approaches to modelling Nature Futures scenarios in the review, screening, and design phases of policy processes. This paper seeks to facilitate the integration of relational values of nature in models and strengthen modelled linkages across biodiversity, nature’s contributions to people, and quality of life.
Published: 2023
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4. Towards a better future for biodiversity and people: Modelling Nature Futures

Author: Kim, H., Peterson, G., Cheung, W., Ferrier, S., Alkemade, R., Arneth, A., Kuiper, J., Okayasu, S., Pereira, L., Acosta, L., Chaplin-Kramer, R., den Belder, E., Eddy, T., Johnson, J., Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S., Kok, M., Leadley, P., Leclere, D., Lundquist, C., Rondinini, C., Scholes, R., Schoolenberg, M., Shin, Y.-J., Stehfest, E., Stephenson, F., Visconti, P., van Vuuren, D., Wabnitz, C., José Alava, J., Cuadros-Casanova, I., Davies, K., Gasalla, M., Halouani, G., Harfoot, M., Hashimoto, S., Hickler, T., Hirsch, T., Kolomytsev, G., Miller, B., Ohashi, H., Gabriela Palomo, M., Popp, A., Paco Remme, R., Saito, O., Rashid Sumalia, U., Willcock, S., Pereira, H., Kim, H., Peterson, G., Cheung, W., Ferrier, S., Alkemade, R., Arneth, A., Kuiper, J., Okayasu, S., Pereira, L., Acosta, L., Chaplin-Kramer, R., den Belder, E., Eddy, T., Johnson, J., Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S., Kok, M., Leadley, P., Leclere, D., Lundquist, C., Rondinini, C., Scholes, R., Schoolenberg, M., Shin, Y.-J., Stehfest, E., Stephenson, F., Visconti, P., van Vuuren, D., Wabnitz, C., José Alava, J., Cuadros-Casanova, I., Davies, K., Gasalla, M., Halouani, G., Harfoot, M., Hashimoto, S., Hickler, T., Hirsch, T., Kolomytsev, G., Miller, B., Ohashi, H., Gabriela Palomo, M., Popp, A., Paco Remme, R., Saito, O., Rashid Sumalia, U., Willcock, S., and Pereira, H.
Abstract: The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a heuristic tool for co-creating positive futures for nature and people. It seeks to open up a diversity of futures through mainly three value perspectives on nature – Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, and Nature as Culture. This paper describes how the NFF can be applied in modelling to support decision-making. First, we describe key considerations for the NFF in developing qualitative and quantitative scenarios: i) multiple value perspectives on nature as a state space where pathways improving nature toward a frontier can be represented, ii) mutually reinforcing key feedbacks of social-ecological systems that are important for nature conservation and human wellbeing, iii) indicators of multiple knowledge systems describing the evolution of complex social-ecological dynamics. We then present three approaches to modelling Nature Futures scenarios in the review, screening, and design phases of policy processes. This paper seeks to facilitate the integration of relational values of nature in models and strengthen modelled linkages across biodiversity, nature’s contributions to people, and quality of life.
Published: 2023
Full Text: View/download PDF

5. Towards a better future for biodiversity and people: Modelling Nature Futures

Author: Kim, H., Peterson, G., Cheung, W., Ferrier, S., Alkemade, R., Arneth, A., Kuiper, J., Okayasu, S., Pereira, L., Acosta, L., Chaplin-Kramer, R., den Belder, E., Eddy, T., Johnson, J., Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S., Kok, M., Leadley, P., Leclere, D., Lundquist, C., Rondinini, C., Scholes, R., Schoolenberg, M., Shin, Y.-J., Stehfest, E., Stephenson, F., Visconti, P., van Vuuren, D., Wabnitz, C., José Alava, J., Cuadros-Casanova, I., Davies, K., Gasalla, M., Halouani, G., Harfoot, M., Hashimoto, S., Hickler, T., Hirsch, T., Kolomytsev, G., Miller, B., Ohashi, H., Gabriela Palomo, M., Popp, A., Paco Remme, R., Saito, O., Rashid Sumalia, U., Willcock, S., Pereira, H., Kim, H., Peterson, G., Cheung, W., Ferrier, S., Alkemade, R., Arneth, A., Kuiper, J., Okayasu, S., Pereira, L., Acosta, L., Chaplin-Kramer, R., den Belder, E., Eddy, T., Johnson, J., Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S., Kok, M., Leadley, P., Leclere, D., Lundquist, C., Rondinini, C., Scholes, R., Schoolenberg, M., Shin, Y.-J., Stehfest, E., Stephenson, F., Visconti, P., van Vuuren, D., Wabnitz, C., José Alava, J., Cuadros-Casanova, I., Davies, K., Gasalla, M., Halouani, G., Harfoot, M., Hashimoto, S., Hickler, T., Hirsch, T., Kolomytsev, G., Miller, B., Ohashi, H., Gabriela Palomo, M., Popp, A., Paco Remme, R., Saito, O., Rashid Sumalia, U., Willcock, S., and Pereira, H.
Abstract: The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a heuristic tool for co-creating positive futures for nature and people. It seeks to open up a diversity of futures through mainly three value perspectives on nature – Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, and Nature as Culture. This paper describes how the NFF can be applied in modelling to support decision-making. First, we describe key considerations for the NFF in developing qualitative and quantitative scenarios: i) multiple value perspectives on nature as a state space where pathways improving nature toward a frontier can be represented, ii) mutually reinforcing key feedbacks of social-ecological systems that are important for nature conservation and human wellbeing, iii) indicators of multiple knowledge systems describing the evolution of complex social-ecological dynamics. We then present three approaches to modelling Nature Futures scenarios in the review, screening, and design phases of policy processes. This paper seeks to facilitate the integration of relational values of nature in models and strengthen modelled linkages across biodiversity, nature’s contributions to people, and quality of life.
Published: 2023
Full Text: View/download PDF

6. Expert perspectives on global biodiversity loss and its drivers and impacts on people

Author: Isbell, F., Balvanera, P., Mori, A.S., He, J.-S., Bullock, J.M., Regmi, G.R., Seabloom, E.W., Ferrier, S., Sala, O.E., Guerrero-Ramírez, N.R., Tavella, J., Larkin, D.J., Schmid, B., Outhwaite, C.L., Pramual, P., Borer, E.T., Loreau, M., Omotoriogun, T.C., Obura, D.O., Anderson, M., Portales-Reyes, C., Kirkman, K., Vergara, P.M., Clark, Adam Thomas, Komatsu, K.J., Petchey, O.L., Weiskopf, S.R., Williams, L.J., Collins, S.L., Eisenhauer, N., Trisos, C.H., Renard, D., Wright, A.J., Tripathi, P., Cowles, J., Byrnes, J.E.K., Reich, P.B., Purvis, A., Sharip, Z., O’Connor, M.I., Kazanski, C.E., Haddad, N.M., Soto, E.H., Dee, L.E., Díaz, S., Zirbel, C.R., Avolio, M.L., Wang, S., Ma, Z., Liang, J., Farah, H.C., Johnson, J.A., Miller, B.W., Hautier, Y., Smith, M.D., Knops, J.M.H., Myers, B.J.E., Harmáčková, Z.V., Cortés, J., Harfoot, M.B.J., Gonzalez, A., Newbold, T., Oehri, J., Mazón, M., Dobbs, C., Palmer, M.S., Isbell, F., Balvanera, P., Mori, A.S., He, J.-S., Bullock, J.M., Regmi, G.R., Seabloom, E.W., Ferrier, S., Sala, O.E., Guerrero-Ramírez, N.R., Tavella, J., Larkin, D.J., Schmid, B., Outhwaite, C.L., Pramual, P., Borer, E.T., Loreau, M., Omotoriogun, T.C., Obura, D.O., Anderson, M., Portales-Reyes, C., Kirkman, K., Vergara, P.M., Clark, Adam Thomas, Komatsu, K.J., Petchey, O.L., Weiskopf, S.R., Williams, L.J., Collins, S.L., Eisenhauer, N., Trisos, C.H., Renard, D., Wright, A.J., Tripathi, P., Cowles, J., Byrnes, J.E.K., Reich, P.B., Purvis, A., Sharip, Z., O’Connor, M.I., Kazanski, C.E., Haddad, N.M., Soto, E.H., Dee, L.E., Díaz, S., Zirbel, C.R., Avolio, M.L., Wang, S., Ma, Z., Liang, J., Farah, H.C., Johnson, J.A., Miller, B.W., Hautier, Y., Smith, M.D., Knops, J.M.H., Myers, B.J.E., Harmáčková, Z.V., Cortés, J., Harfoot, M.B.J., Gonzalez, A., Newbold, T., Oehri, J., Mazón, M., Dobbs, C., and Palmer, M.S.
Abstract: Despite substantial progress in understanding global biodiversity loss, major taxonomic and geographic knowledge gaps remain. Decision makers often rely on expert judgement to fill knowledge gaps, but are rarely able to engage with sufficiently large and diverse groups of specialists. To improve understanding of the perspectives of thousands of biodiversity experts worldwide, we conducted a survey and asked experts to focus on the taxa and freshwater, terrestrial, or marine ecosystem with which they are most familiar. We found several points of overwhelming consensus (for instance, multiple drivers of biodiversity loss interact synergistically) and important demographic and geographic differences in specialists’ perspectives and estimates. Experts from groups that are underrepresented in biodiversity science, including women and those from the Global South, recommended different priorities for conservation solutions, with less emphasis on acquiring new protected areas, and provided higher estimates of biodiversity loss and its impacts. This may in part be because they disproportionately study the most highly threatened taxa and habitats.
Published: 2022

7. Achieving global biodiversity goals by 2050 requires urgent and integrated actions

Author: Leadley, P., Gonzalez, A., Obura, D., Krug, C.B., Londoño-Murcia, M.C., Millette, K.L., Radulovici, A., Rankovic, A., Shannon, L.J., Archer, E., Armah, F.A., Bax, N., Chaudhari, K., Costello, M.J., Dávalos, L.M., Roque, F., DeClerck, F., Dee, L.E., Essl, F., Ferrier, S., Genovesi, P., Guariguata, M.R., Hashimoto, S., Ifejika Speranza, C., Isbell, F., Kok, M., Lavery, S.D., Leclere, D., Loyola, R., Lwasa, S., McGeoch, M., Mori, A.S., Nicholson, E., Ochoa, J.M., Öllerer, K., Polasky, S., Rondinini, C., Schroer, S., Selomane, O., Shen, X., Strassburg, B., Sumaila, U.R., Tittensor, D.P., Turak, E., Urbina, L., Vallejos, M., Vázquez-Domínguez, E., Verburg, P.H., Visconti, P., Woodley, S., Xu, J., Leadley, P., Gonzalez, A., Obura, D., Krug, C.B., Londoño-Murcia, M.C., Millette, K.L., Radulovici, A., Rankovic, A., Shannon, L.J., Archer, E., Armah, F.A., Bax, N., Chaudhari, K., Costello, M.J., Dávalos, L.M., Roque, F., DeClerck, F., Dee, L.E., Essl, F., Ferrier, S., Genovesi, P., Guariguata, M.R., Hashimoto, S., Ifejika Speranza, C., Isbell, F., Kok, M., Lavery, S.D., Leclere, D., Loyola, R., Lwasa, S., McGeoch, M., Mori, A.S., Nicholson, E., Ochoa, J.M., Öllerer, K., Polasky, S., Rondinini, C., Schroer, S., Selomane, O., Shen, X., Strassburg, B., Sumaila, U.R., Tittensor, D.P., Turak, E., Urbina, L., Vallejos, M., Vázquez-Domínguez, E., Verburg, P.H., Visconti, P., Woodley, S., and Xu, J.
Abstract: Governments are negotiating actions intended to halt biodiversity loss and put it on a path to recovery by 2050. Here, we show that bending the curve for biodiversity is possible, but only if actions are implemented urgently and in an integrated manner. Connecting these actions to biodiversity outcomes and tracking progress remain a challenge.
Published: 2022

8. Achieving global biodiversity goals by 2050 requires urgent and integrated actions

Author: Leadley, P., Gonzalez, A., Obura, D., Krug, C.B., Londoño-Murcia, M.C., Millette, K.L., Radulovici, A., Rankovic, A., Shannon, L.J., Archer, E., Armah, F.A., Bax, N., Chaudhari, K., Costello, M.J., Dávalos, L.M., Roque, F., DeClerck, F., Dee, L.E., Essl, F., Ferrier, S., Genovesi, P., Guariguata, M.R., Hashimoto, S., Ifejika Speranza, C., Isbell, F., Kok, M., Lavery, S.D., Leclere, D., Loyola, R., Lwasa, S., McGeoch, M., Mori, A.S., Nicholson, E., Ochoa, J.M., Öllerer, K., Polasky, S., Rondinini, C., Schroer, S., Selomane, O., Shen, X., Strassburg, B., Sumaila, U.R., Tittensor, D.P., Turak, E., Urbina, L., Vallejos, M., Vázquez-Domínguez, E., Verburg, P.H., Visconti, P., Woodley, S., Xu, J., Leadley, P., Gonzalez, A., Obura, D., Krug, C.B., Londoño-Murcia, M.C., Millette, K.L., Radulovici, A., Rankovic, A., Shannon, L.J., Archer, E., Armah, F.A., Bax, N., Chaudhari, K., Costello, M.J., Dávalos, L.M., Roque, F., DeClerck, F., Dee, L.E., Essl, F., Ferrier, S., Genovesi, P., Guariguata, M.R., Hashimoto, S., Ifejika Speranza, C., Isbell, F., Kok, M., Lavery, S.D., Leclere, D., Loyola, R., Lwasa, S., McGeoch, M., Mori, A.S., Nicholson, E., Ochoa, J.M., Öllerer, K., Polasky, S., Rondinini, C., Schroer, S., Selomane, O., Shen, X., Strassburg, B., Sumaila, U.R., Tittensor, D.P., Turak, E., Urbina, L., Vallejos, M., Vázquez-Domínguez, E., Verburg, P.H., Visconti, P., Woodley, S., and Xu, J.
Abstract: Governments are negotiating actions intended to halt biodiversity loss and put it on a path to recovery by 2050. Here, we show that bending the curve for biodiversity is possible, but only if actions are implemented urgently and in an integrated manner. Connecting these actions to biodiversity outcomes and tracking progress remain a challenge.
Published: 2022

9. Towards a better future for biodiversity and people: modelling Nature Futures

Author: Kim, H., Peterson, G., Cheung, W., Ferrier, S., Alkemade, R., Arneth, A., Kuiper, J., Okayasu, S., Pereira, L., Acosta, L., Chaplin-Kramer, R, den Belder, E., Eddy, T., Johnson, J., Karlsson-Vinkhuysen, S., Kok, M., Leadley, P., Leclere, D., Lundquist, C., Rondinini, C., Scholes, R., Schoolenberg, M., Shin, Y., Stehfest, E., Stephenson, F., Visconti, P., van Vuuren, D., Wabnitz, C., Alava, J., Cuadros-Casanova, Ivon, Davies, K., Gasalla, M., Halouani, G., Harfoot, M., Hashimoto, S., Hickler, T., Hirsch, T., Kolomytsev, G., Miller, B., Ohashi, H., Palomo, M., Popp, A., Remme, R., Saito, O., Sumaila, R., Willcock, S., Pereira, H., Kim, H., Peterson, G., Cheung, W., Ferrier, S., Alkemade, R., Arneth, A., Kuiper, J., Okayasu, S., Pereira, L., Acosta, L., Chaplin-Kramer, R, den Belder, E., Eddy, T., Johnson, J., Karlsson-Vinkhuysen, S., Kok, M., Leadley, P., Leclere, D., Lundquist, C., Rondinini, C., Scholes, R., Schoolenberg, M., Shin, Y., Stehfest, E., Stephenson, F., Visconti, P., van Vuuren, D., Wabnitz, C., Alava, J., Cuadros-Casanova, Ivon, Davies, K., Gasalla, M., Halouani, G., Harfoot, M., Hashimoto, S., Hickler, T., Hirsch, T., Kolomytsev, G., Miller, B., Ohashi, H., Palomo, M., Popp, A., Remme, R., Saito, O., Sumaila, R., Willcock, S., and Pereira, H.
Abstract: The expert group on scenarios and models of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services initiated the development of the Nature Futures Framework for developing scenarios of positive futures for nature, to help inform assessments of policy options. This new scenarios and modelling Framework seeks to open up diversity and plurality of perspectives by differentiating three main value perspectives on nature – Nature for Nature (intrinsic values of nature), Nature for Society (instrumental values) and Nature as Culture (relational values). This paper describes how the Nature Futures Framework can be applied in modelling to support policy processes by identifying key interventions for change in realizing a diversity of desirable futures. First, the paper introduces and elaborates on key building blocks of the framework for developing qualitative scenarios and translating them into quantitative scenarios: i) multiple value perspectives on nature and the Nature Futures frontier representing diverse preferences, ii) incorporating mutual and key feedbacks of social-ecological systems in Nature Futures scenarios, and iii) indicators describing the evolution of social-ecological systems with complementary knowledge and data. This paper then presents three possible application approaches to modelling Nature Futures scenarios to support the i) review, ii) implementation and iii) design phases of policy processes. The main objective of this paper is to facilitate the integration of the relational values of nature in models, through improved indicators and other forms of evidence, and to strengthen modelled linkages across biodiversity, ecosystems, nature’s contributions to people, and quality of life to identify science- and knowledge-based interventions and to enhance ecological understanding for achieving sustainable futures. The paper aims at stimulating the development of new scenarios and models based on this new framework by a wide c
Published: 2021

10. Towards a better future for biodiversity and people: modelling Nature Futures

Author: Kim, H., Peterson, G., Cheung, W., Ferrier, S., Alkemade, R., Arneth, A., Kuiper, J., Okayasu, S., Pereira, L., Acosta, L., Chaplin-Kramer, R, den Belder, E., Eddy, T., Johnson, J., Karlsson-Vinkhuysen, S., Kok, M., Leadley, P., Leclere, D., Lundquist, C., Rondinini, C., Scholes, R., Schoolenberg, M., Shin, Y., Stehfest, E., Stephenson, F., Visconti, P., van Vuuren, D., Wabnitz, C., Alava, J., Cuadros-Casanova, Ivon, Davies, K., Gasalla, M., Halouani, G., Harfoot, M., Hashimoto, S., Hickler, T., Hirsch, T., Kolomytsev, G., Miller, B., Ohashi, H., Palomo, M., Popp, A., Remme, R., Saito, O., Sumaila, R., Willcock, S., Pereira, H., Kim, H., Peterson, G., Cheung, W., Ferrier, S., Alkemade, R., Arneth, A., Kuiper, J., Okayasu, S., Pereira, L., Acosta, L., Chaplin-Kramer, R, den Belder, E., Eddy, T., Johnson, J., Karlsson-Vinkhuysen, S., Kok, M., Leadley, P., Leclere, D., Lundquist, C., Rondinini, C., Scholes, R., Schoolenberg, M., Shin, Y., Stehfest, E., Stephenson, F., Visconti, P., van Vuuren, D., Wabnitz, C., Alava, J., Cuadros-Casanova, Ivon, Davies, K., Gasalla, M., Halouani, G., Harfoot, M., Hashimoto, S., Hickler, T., Hirsch, T., Kolomytsev, G., Miller, B., Ohashi, H., Palomo, M., Popp, A., Remme, R., Saito, O., Sumaila, R., Willcock, S., and Pereira, H.
Abstract: The expert group on scenarios and models of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services initiated the development of the Nature Futures Framework for developing scenarios of positive futures for nature, to help inform assessments of policy options. This new scenarios and modelling Framework seeks to open up diversity and plurality of perspectives by differentiating three main value perspectives on nature – Nature for Nature (intrinsic values of nature), Nature for Society (instrumental values) and Nature as Culture (relational values). This paper describes how the Nature Futures Framework can be applied in modelling to support policy processes by identifying key interventions for change in realizing a diversity of desirable futures. First, the paper introduces and elaborates on key building blocks of the framework for developing qualitative scenarios and translating them into quantitative scenarios: i) multiple value perspectives on nature and the Nature Futures frontier representing diverse preferences, ii) incorporating mutual and key feedbacks of social-ecological systems in Nature Futures scenarios, and iii) indicators describing the evolution of social-ecological systems with complementary knowledge and data. This paper then presents three possible application approaches to modelling Nature Futures scenarios to support the i) review, ii) implementation and iii) design phases of policy processes. The main objective of this paper is to facilitate the integration of the relational values of nature in models, through improved indicators and other forms of evidence, and to strengthen modelled linkages across biodiversity, ecosystems, nature’s contributions to people, and quality of life to identify science- and knowledge-based interventions and to enhance ecological understanding for achieving sustainable futures. The paper aims at stimulating the development of new scenarios and models based on this new framework by a wide c
Published: 2021

11. Towards a better future for biodiversity and people: modelling Nature Futures

Author: Kim, H., Peterson, G., Cheung, W., Ferrier, S., Alkemade, R., Arneth, A., Kuiper, J., Okayasu, S., Pereira, L., Acosta, L., Chaplin-Kramer, R, den Belder, E., Eddy, T., Johnson, J., Karlsson-Vinkhuysen, S., Kok, M., Leadley, P., Leclere, D., Lundquist, C., Rondinini, C., Scholes, R., Schoolenberg, M., Shin, Y., Stehfest, E., Stephenson, F., Visconti, P., van Vuuren, D., Wabnitz, C., Alava, J., Cuadros-Casanova, Ivon, Davies, K., Gasalla, M., Halouani, G., Harfoot, M., Hashimoto, S., Hickler, T., Hirsch, T., Kolomytsev, G., Miller, B., Ohashi, H., Palomo, M., Popp, A., Remme, R., Saito, O., Sumaila, R., Willcock, S., Pereira, H., Kim, H., Peterson, G., Cheung, W., Ferrier, S., Alkemade, R., Arneth, A., Kuiper, J., Okayasu, S., Pereira, L., Acosta, L., Chaplin-Kramer, R, den Belder, E., Eddy, T., Johnson, J., Karlsson-Vinkhuysen, S., Kok, M., Leadley, P., Leclere, D., Lundquist, C., Rondinini, C., Scholes, R., Schoolenberg, M., Shin, Y., Stehfest, E., Stephenson, F., Visconti, P., van Vuuren, D., Wabnitz, C., Alava, J., Cuadros-Casanova, Ivon, Davies, K., Gasalla, M., Halouani, G., Harfoot, M., Hashimoto, S., Hickler, T., Hirsch, T., Kolomytsev, G., Miller, B., Ohashi, H., Palomo, M., Popp, A., Remme, R., Saito, O., Sumaila, R., Willcock, S., and Pereira, H.
Abstract: The expert group on scenarios and models of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services initiated the development of the Nature Futures Framework for developing scenarios of positive futures for nature, to help inform assessments of policy options. This new scenarios and modelling Framework seeks to open up diversity and plurality of perspectives by differentiating three main value perspectives on nature – Nature for Nature (intrinsic values of nature), Nature for Society (instrumental values) and Nature as Culture (relational values). This paper describes how the Nature Futures Framework can be applied in modelling to support policy processes by identifying key interventions for change in realizing a diversity of desirable futures. First, the paper introduces and elaborates on key building blocks of the framework for developing qualitative scenarios and translating them into quantitative scenarios: i) multiple value perspectives on nature and the Nature Futures frontier representing diverse preferences, ii) incorporating mutual and key feedbacks of social-ecological systems in Nature Futures scenarios, and iii) indicators describing the evolution of social-ecological systems with complementary knowledge and data. This paper then presents three possible application approaches to modelling Nature Futures scenarios to support the i) review, ii) implementation and iii) design phases of policy processes. The main objective of this paper is to facilitate the integration of the relational values of nature in models, through improved indicators and other forms of evidence, and to strengthen modelled linkages across biodiversity, ecosystems, nature’s contributions to people, and quality of life to identify science- and knowledge-based interventions and to enhance ecological understanding for achieving sustainable futures. The paper aims at stimulating the development of new scenarios and models based on this new framework by a wide c
Published: 2021

12. Mapping co-benefits for carbon storage and biodiversity to inform conservation policy and action

Author: Soto-Navarro, C., Ravilious, C., Arnell, A., de Lamo, X., Harfoot, M., Hill, S. L. L., Wearn, O. R., Santoro, M, Bouvet, A., Mermoz, S., Toan, T. Le, Xia, J, Liu, S., Yuan, W., Spawn, S. A., Gibbs, H. K., Ferrier, S., Harwood, T., Alkemade, R., Schipper, A. M., Schmidt-Traub, G., Strassburg, B., Miles, L., Burgess, N. D., Kapos, V., Soto-Navarro, C., Ravilious, C., Arnell, A., de Lamo, X., Harfoot, M., Hill, S. L. L., Wearn, O. R., Santoro, M, Bouvet, A., Mermoz, S., Toan, T. Le, Xia, J, Liu, S., Yuan, W., Spawn, S. A., Gibbs, H. K., Ferrier, S., Harwood, T., Alkemade, R., Schipper, A. M., Schmidt-Traub, G., Strassburg, B., Miles, L., Burgess, N. D., and Kapos, V.
Published: 2020

13. Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy

Author: Leclère, D., Obersteiner, M., Barrett, M., Butchart, S.H.M., Chaudhary, A., De Palma, Adriana, DeClerck, F.A.J., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J.C., Dürauer, M., Freeman, R., Harfoot, M., Hasegawa, T., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J.P., Hill, S.L.L., Humpenöder, F., Jennings, N., Krisztin, T., Mace, G.M., Ohashi, H., Popp, Alexander, Purvis, A., Schipper, A.M., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., Meijl, H. van, Zeist, W.J. van, Visconti, P., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Bunting, G., Burgess, N.D., Cornell, S.E., Di Fulvio, F., Ferrier, S., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harwood, T., Havlík, P., Herrero, M., Hoskins, A.J., Jung, M., Kram, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B.B.N., Vuuren, D.P. van, Ware, C., Watson, J.E.M., Wu, W., Young, L., Leclère, D., Obersteiner, M., Barrett, M., Butchart, S.H.M., Chaudhary, A., De Palma, Adriana, DeClerck, F.A.J., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J.C., Dürauer, M., Freeman, R., Harfoot, M., Hasegawa, T., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J.P., Hill, S.L.L., Humpenöder, F., Jennings, N., Krisztin, T., Mace, G.M., Ohashi, H., Popp, Alexander, Purvis, A., Schipper, A.M., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., Meijl, H. van, Zeist, W.J. van, Visconti, P., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Bunting, G., Burgess, N.D., Cornell, S.E., Di Fulvio, F., Ferrier, S., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harwood, T., Havlík, P., Herrero, M., Hoskins, A.J., Jung, M., Kram, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B.B.N., Vuuren, D.P. van, Ware, C., Watson, J.E.M., Wu, W., and Young, L.
Abstract: Contains fulltext : 228862.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Open Access)
Published: 2020

14. Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy

Author: Leclère, D., Obersteiner, M., Barrett, M., Butchart, S.H.M., Chaudhary, A., De Palma, Adriana, DeClerck, F.A.J., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J.C., Dürauer, M., Freeman, R., Harfoot, M., Hasegawa, T., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J.P., Hill, S.L.L., Humpenöder, F., Jennings, N., Krisztin, T., Mace, G.M., Ohashi, H., Popp, Alexander, Purvis, A., Schipper, A.M., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., Meijl, H. van, Zeist, W.J. van, Visconti, P., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Bunting, G., Burgess, N.D., Cornell, S.E., Di Fulvio, F., Ferrier, S., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harwood, T., Havlík, P., Herrero, M., Hoskins, A.J., Jung, M., Kram, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B.B.N., Vuuren, D.P. van, Ware, C., Watson, J.E.M., Wu, W., Young, L., Leclère, D., Obersteiner, M., Barrett, M., Butchart, S.H.M., Chaudhary, A., De Palma, Adriana, DeClerck, F.A.J., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J.C., Dürauer, M., Freeman, R., Harfoot, M., Hasegawa, T., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J.P., Hill, S.L.L., Humpenöder, F., Jennings, N., Krisztin, T., Mace, G.M., Ohashi, H., Popp, Alexander, Purvis, A., Schipper, A.M., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., Meijl, H. van, Zeist, W.J. van, Visconti, P., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Bunting, G., Burgess, N.D., Cornell, S.E., Di Fulvio, F., Ferrier, S., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harwood, T., Havlík, P., Herrero, M., Hoskins, A.J., Jung, M., Kram, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B.B.N., Vuuren, D.P. van, Ware, C., Watson, J.E.M., Wu, W., and Young, L.
Abstract: Contains fulltext : 228862.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Open Access)
Published: 2020

15. PRESENCE-ONLY AND PRESENCE-ABSENCE DATA FOR COMPARING SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELING METHODS

Author: Elith, J, Graham, C, Valavi, R, Abegg, M, Bruce, C, Ford, A, Guisan, A, Hijmans, RJ, Huettmann, F, Lohmann, L, Loiselle, B, Moritz, C, Overton, J, Peterson, AT, Phillips, S, Richardson, K, Williams, S, Wiser, SK, Wohlgemuth, T, Zimmermann, NE, Ferrier, S, Elith, J, Graham, C, Valavi, R, Abegg, M, Bruce, C, Ford, A, Guisan, A, Hijmans, RJ, Huettmann, F, Lohmann, L, Loiselle, B, Moritz, C, Overton, J, Peterson, AT, Phillips, S, Richardson, K, Williams, S, Wiser, SK, Wohlgemuth, T, Zimmermann, NE, and Ferrier, S
Abstract: Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to predict and study distributions of species. Many different modeling methods and associated algorithms are used and continue to emerge. It is important to understand how different approaches perform, particularly when applied to species occurrence records that were not gathered in structured surveys (e.g. opportunistic records). This need motivated a large-scale, collaborative effort, published in 2006, that aimed to create objective comparisons of algorithm performance. As a benchmark, and to facilitate future comparisons of approaches, here we publish that dataset: point location records for 226 anonymized species from six regions of the world, with accompanying predictor variables in raster (grid) and point formats. A particularly interesting characteristic of this dataset is that independent presence-absence survey data are available for evaluation alongside the presence-only species occurrence data intended for modeling. The dataset is available on Open Science Framework and as an R package and can be used as a benchmark for modeling approaches and for testing new ways to evaluate the accuracy of SDMs.
Published: 2020

16. Challenges in producing policy-relevant global scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services

Author: Rosa, I.M.D., Purvis, A., Alkemade, R., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Ferrier, S., Guerra, C.A., Hurtt, G., Kim, H., Leadley, Paul, Martins, I.S., Popp, Alexander, Schipper, Aafke M., Vuuren, Detlef P. van, Pereira, H.M., Rosa, I.M.D., Purvis, A., Alkemade, R., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Ferrier, S., Guerra, C.A., Hurtt, G., Kim, H., Leadley, Paul, Martins, I.S., Popp, Alexander, Schipper, Aafke M., Vuuren, Detlef P. van, and Pereira, H.M.
Abstract: Contains fulltext : 217156.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)
Published: 2020

17. Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy

Author: Leclère, D., Obersteiner, M., Barrett, M., Butchart, S.H.M., Chaudhary, A., De Palma, Adriana, DeClerck, F.A.J., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J.C., Dürauer, M., Freeman, R., Harfoot, M., Hasegawa, T., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J.P., Hill, S.L.L., Humpenöder, F., Jennings, N., Krisztin, T., Mace, G.M., Ohashi, H., Popp, Alexander, Purvis, A., Schipper, A.M., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., Meijl, H. van, Zeist, W.J. van, Visconti, P., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Bunting, G., Burgess, N.D., Cornell, S.E., Di Fulvio, F., Ferrier, S., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harwood, T., Havlík, P., Herrero, M., Hoskins, A.J., Jung, M., Kram, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B.B.N., Vuuren, D.P. van, Ware, C., Watson, J.E.M., Wu, W., Young, L., Leclère, D., Obersteiner, M., Barrett, M., Butchart, S.H.M., Chaudhary, A., De Palma, Adriana, DeClerck, F.A.J., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J.C., Dürauer, M., Freeman, R., Harfoot, M., Hasegawa, T., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J.P., Hill, S.L.L., Humpenöder, F., Jennings, N., Krisztin, T., Mace, G.M., Ohashi, H., Popp, Alexander, Purvis, A., Schipper, A.M., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., Meijl, H. van, Zeist, W.J. van, Visconti, P., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Bunting, G., Burgess, N.D., Cornell, S.E., Di Fulvio, F., Ferrier, S., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harwood, T., Havlík, P., Herrero, M., Hoskins, A.J., Jung, M., Kram, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B.B.N., Vuuren, D.P. van, Ware, C., Watson, J.E.M., Wu, W., and Young, L.
Abstract: Contains fulltext : 228862.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Open Access)
Published: 2020

18. Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy

Author: Leclère, D., Obersteiner, M., Barrett, M., Butchart, S.H.M., Chaudhary, A., De Palma, Adriana, DeClerck, F.A.J., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J.C., Dürauer, M., Freeman, R., Harfoot, M., Hasegawa, T., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J.P., Hill, S.L.L., Humpenöder, F., Jennings, N., Krisztin, T., Mace, G.M., Ohashi, H., Popp, Alexander, Purvis, A., Schipper, A.M., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., Meijl, H. van, Zeist, W.J. van, Visconti, P., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Bunting, G., Burgess, N.D., Cornell, S.E., Di Fulvio, F., Ferrier, S., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harwood, T., Havlík, P., Herrero, M., Hoskins, A.J., Jung, M., Kram, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B.B.N., Vuuren, D.P. van, Ware, C., Watson, J.E.M., Wu, W., Young, L., Leclère, D., Obersteiner, M., Barrett, M., Butchart, S.H.M., Chaudhary, A., De Palma, Adriana, DeClerck, F.A.J., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J.C., Dürauer, M., Freeman, R., Harfoot, M., Hasegawa, T., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J.P., Hill, S.L.L., Humpenöder, F., Jennings, N., Krisztin, T., Mace, G.M., Ohashi, H., Popp, Alexander, Purvis, A., Schipper, A.M., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., Meijl, H. van, Zeist, W.J. van, Visconti, P., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Bunting, G., Burgess, N.D., Cornell, S.E., Di Fulvio, F., Ferrier, S., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harwood, T., Havlík, P., Herrero, M., Hoskins, A.J., Jung, M., Kram, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B.B.N., Vuuren, D.P. van, Ware, C., Watson, J.E.M., Wu, W., and Young, L.
Abstract: Contains fulltext : 228862.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Open Access)
Published: 2020

19. Global trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Author: Pereira, H.M., Rosa, I.M.D., Martins, I.S., Kim, H., Leadley, P., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D.P., Hurtt, G., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Guerra, C.A., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T.D., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlik, Petr, Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J.P., Hill, S.L.L., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A.J., Humpenöder, F., Janse, J.H., Jetz, W., Johnson, J.A., Krause, A., Leclere, D., Matsui, T., Meijer, J.R., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A.M., Settele, J., Sharp, R., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B.N.B., Takahashi, K., Talluto, M.V., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F, Alkemade, R., Pereira, H.M., Rosa, I.M.D., Martins, I.S., Kim, H., Leadley, P., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D.P., Hurtt, G., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Guerra, C.A., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T.D., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlik, Petr, Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J.P., Hill, S.L.L., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A.J., Humpenöder, F., Janse, J.H., Jetz, W., Johnson, J.A., Krause, A., Leclere, D., Matsui, T., Meijer, J.R., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A.M., Settele, J., Sharp, R., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B.N.B., Takahashi, K., Talluto, M.V., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F, and Alkemade, R.
Abstract: Despite the scientific consensus on the extinction crisis and its anthropogenic origin, the quantification of historical trends and of future scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services has been limited, due to the lack of inter-model comparisons and harmonized scenarios. Here, we present a multi-model analysis to assess the impacts of land-use and climate change from 1900 to 2050. During the 20th century provisioning services increased, but biodiversity and regulating services decreased. Similar trade-offs are projected for the coming decades, but they may be attenuated in a sustainability scenario. Future biodiversity loss from land-use change is projected to keep up with historical rates or reduce slightly, whereas losses due to climate change are projected to increase greatly. Renewed efforts are needed by governments to meet the 2050 vision of the Convention on Biological Diversity.
Published: 2020

20. Mapping co-benefits for carbon storage and biodiversity to inform conservation policy and action

Author: Soto-Navarro, C., Ravilious, C., Arnell, A., de Lamo, X., Harfoot, M., Hill, S. L. L., Wearn, O. R., Santoro, M, Bouvet, A., Mermoz, S., Toan, T. Le, Xia, J, Liu, S., Yuan, W., Spawn, S. A., Gibbs, H. K., Ferrier, S., Harwood, T., Alkemade, R., Schipper, A. M., Schmidt-Traub, G., Strassburg, B., Miles, L., Burgess, N. D., Kapos, V., Soto-Navarro, C., Ravilious, C., Arnell, A., de Lamo, X., Harfoot, M., Hill, S. L. L., Wearn, O. R., Santoro, M, Bouvet, A., Mermoz, S., Toan, T. Le, Xia, J, Liu, S., Yuan, W., Spawn, S. A., Gibbs, H. K., Ferrier, S., Harwood, T., Alkemade, R., Schipper, A. M., Schmidt-Traub, G., Strassburg, B., Miles, L., Burgess, N. D., and Kapos, V.
Published: 2020

21. Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy

Author: Leclere, D., Obersteiner, M., Barrett, M., Butchart, S.H.M., Chaudhary, A., De Palma, A., DeClerck, F.A.J., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J.C., Dürauer, M., Freeman, R., Harfoot, M., Hasegawa, T., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J.P., Hill, S.L.L., Humpenöder, F., Jennings, N., Krisztin, T., Mace, G.M., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A.M., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., van Zeist, W.-J., Visconti, P., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Bunting, G., Burgess, N.D., Cornell, S.E., Di Fulvio, F., Ferrier, S., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harwood, T., Havlik, P., Herrero, M., Hoskins, A.J., Jung, M., Kram, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B.B.N., van Vuuren, D., Ware, C., Watson, J.E.M., Wu, W., Young, L., Leclere, D., Obersteiner, M., Barrett, M., Butchart, S.H.M., Chaudhary, A., De Palma, A., DeClerck, F.A.J., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J.C., Dürauer, M., Freeman, R., Harfoot, M., Hasegawa, T., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J.P., Hill, S.L.L., Humpenöder, F., Jennings, N., Krisztin, T., Mace, G.M., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A.M., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., van Zeist, W.-J., Visconti, P., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Bunting, G., Burgess, N.D., Cornell, S.E., Di Fulvio, F., Ferrier, S., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harwood, T., Havlik, P., Herrero, M., Hoskins, A.J., Jung, M., Kram, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B.B.N., van Vuuren, D., Ware, C., Watson, J.E.M., Wu, W., and Young, L.
Abstract: Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it provides1,2. Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity3; however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge4. Here we use an ensemble of land-use and biodiversity models to assess whether—and how—humanity can reverse the declines in terrestrial biodiversity caused by habitat conversion, which is a major threat to biodiversity5. We show that immediate efforts, consistent with the broader sustainability agenda but of unprecedented ambition and coordination, could enable the provision of food for the growing human population while reversing the global terrestrial biodiversity trends caused by habitat conversion. If we decide to increase the extent of land under conservation management, restore degraded land and generalize landscape-level conservation planning, biodiversity trends from habitat conversion could become positive by the mid-twenty-first century on average across models (confidence interval, 2042–2061), but this was not the case for all models. Food prices could increase and, on average across models, almost half (confidence interval, 34–50%) of the future biodiversity losses could not be avoided. However, additionally tackling the drivers of land-use change could avoid conflict with affordable food provision and reduces the environmental effects of the food-provision system. Through further sustainable intensification and trade, reduced food waste and more plant-based human diets, more than two thirds of future biodiversity losses are avoided and the biodiversity trends from habitat conversion are reversed by 2050 for almost all of the models. Although limiting further loss will remain challenging in several biodiversity-rich regions, and other threats—such as climate change—must be addressed to truly reverse the declines in biodiversity, our results show that am
Published: 2020

22. Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy

Author: Leclere, D., Obersteiner, M., Barrett, M., Butchart, S.H.M., Chaudhary, A., De Palma, A., DeClerck, F.A.J., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J.C., Dürauer, M., Freeman, R., Harfoot, M., Hasegawa, T., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J.P., Hill, S.L.L., Humpenöder, F., Jennings, N., Krisztin, T., Mace, G.M., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A.M., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., van Zeist, W.-J., Visconti, P., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Bunting, G., Burgess, N.D., Cornell, S.E., Di Fulvio, F., Ferrier, S., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harwood, T., Havlik, P., Herrero, M., Hoskins, A.J., Jung, M., Kram, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B.B.N., van Vuuren, D., Ware, C., Watson, J.E.M., Wu, W., Young, L., Leclere, D., Obersteiner, M., Barrett, M., Butchart, S.H.M., Chaudhary, A., De Palma, A., DeClerck, F.A.J., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J.C., Dürauer, M., Freeman, R., Harfoot, M., Hasegawa, T., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J.P., Hill, S.L.L., Humpenöder, F., Jennings, N., Krisztin, T., Mace, G.M., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A.M., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., van Zeist, W.-J., Visconti, P., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Bunting, G., Burgess, N.D., Cornell, S.E., Di Fulvio, F., Ferrier, S., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harwood, T., Havlik, P., Herrero, M., Hoskins, A.J., Jung, M., Kram, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B.B.N., van Vuuren, D., Ware, C., Watson, J.E.M., Wu, W., and Young, L.
Abstract: Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it provides1,2. Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity3; however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge4. Here we use an ensemble of land-use and biodiversity models to assess whether—and how—humanity can reverse the declines in terrestrial biodiversity caused by habitat conversion, which is a major threat to biodiversity5. We show that immediate efforts, consistent with the broader sustainability agenda but of unprecedented ambition and coordination, could enable the provision of food for the growing human population while reversing the global terrestrial biodiversity trends caused by habitat conversion. If we decide to increase the extent of land under conservation management, restore degraded land and generalize landscape-level conservation planning, biodiversity trends from habitat conversion could become positive by the mid-twenty-first century on average across models (confidence interval, 2042–2061), but this was not the case for all models. Food prices could increase and, on average across models, almost half (confidence interval, 34–50%) of the future biodiversity losses could not be avoided. However, additionally tackling the drivers of land-use change could avoid conflict with affordable food provision and reduces the environmental effects of the food-provision system. Through further sustainable intensification and trade, reduced food waste and more plant-based human diets, more than two thirds of future biodiversity losses are avoided and the biodiversity trends from habitat conversion are reversed by 2050 for almost all of the models. Although limiting further loss will remain challenging in several biodiversity-rich regions, and other threats—such as climate change—must be addressed to truly reverse the declines in biodiversity, our results show that am
Published: 2020

23. Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy

Author: Leclere, D., Obersteiner, M., Barrett, M., Butchart, S.H.M., Chaudhary, A., De Palma, A., DeClerck, F.A.J., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J.C., Dürauer, M., Freeman, R., Harfoot, M., Hasegawa, T., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J.P., Hill, S.L.L., Humpenöder, F., Jennings, N., Krisztin, T., Mace, G.M., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A.M., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., van Zeist, W.-J., Visconti, P., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Bunting, G., Burgess, N.D., Cornell, S.E., Di Fulvio, F., Ferrier, S., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harwood, T., Havlik, P., Herrero, M., Hoskins, A.J., Jung, M., Kram, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B.B.N., van Vuuren, D., Ware, C., Watson, J.E.M., Wu, W., Young, L., Leclere, D., Obersteiner, M., Barrett, M., Butchart, S.H.M., Chaudhary, A., De Palma, A., DeClerck, F.A.J., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J.C., Dürauer, M., Freeman, R., Harfoot, M., Hasegawa, T., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J.P., Hill, S.L.L., Humpenöder, F., Jennings, N., Krisztin, T., Mace, G.M., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A.M., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., van Zeist, W.-J., Visconti, P., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Bunting, G., Burgess, N.D., Cornell, S.E., Di Fulvio, F., Ferrier, S., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harwood, T., Havlik, P., Herrero, M., Hoskins, A.J., Jung, M., Kram, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B.B.N., van Vuuren, D., Ware, C., Watson, J.E.M., Wu, W., and Young, L.
Abstract: Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it provides1,2. Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity3; however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge4. Here we use an ensemble of land-use and biodiversity models to assess whether—and how—humanity can reverse the declines in terrestrial biodiversity caused by habitat conversion, which is a major threat to biodiversity5. We show that immediate efforts, consistent with the broader sustainability agenda but of unprecedented ambition and coordination, could enable the provision of food for the growing human population while reversing the global terrestrial biodiversity trends caused by habitat conversion. If we decide to increase the extent of land under conservation management, restore degraded land and generalize landscape-level conservation planning, biodiversity trends from habitat conversion could become positive by the mid-twenty-first century on average across models (confidence interval, 2042–2061), but this was not the case for all models. Food prices could increase and, on average across models, almost half (confidence interval, 34–50%) of the future biodiversity losses could not be avoided. However, additionally tackling the drivers of land-use change could avoid conflict with affordable food provision and reduces the environmental effects of the food-provision system. Through further sustainable intensification and trade, reduced food waste and more plant-based human diets, more than two thirds of future biodiversity losses are avoided and the biodiversity trends from habitat conversion are reversed by 2050 for almost all of the models. Although limiting further loss will remain challenging in several biodiversity-rich regions, and other threats—such as climate change—must be addressed to truly reverse the declines in biodiversity, our results show that am
Published: 2020

24. Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy

Author: Leclere, D., Obersteiner, M., Barrett, M., Butchart, S.H.M., Chaudhary, A., De Palma, A., DeClerck, F.A.J., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J.C., Dürauer, M., Freeman, R., Harfoot, M., Hasegawa, T., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J.P., Hill, S.L.L., Humpenöder, F., Jennings, N., Krisztin, T., Mace, G.M., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A.M., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., van Zeist, W.-J., Visconti, P., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Bunting, G., Burgess, N.D., Cornell, S.E., Di Fulvio, F., Ferrier, S., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harwood, T., Havlik, P., Herrero, M., Hoskins, A.J., Jung, M., Kram, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B.B.N., van Vuuren, D., Ware, C., Watson, J.E.M., Wu, W., Young, L., Leclere, D., Obersteiner, M., Barrett, M., Butchart, S.H.M., Chaudhary, A., De Palma, A., DeClerck, F.A.J., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J.C., Dürauer, M., Freeman, R., Harfoot, M., Hasegawa, T., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J.P., Hill, S.L.L., Humpenöder, F., Jennings, N., Krisztin, T., Mace, G.M., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A.M., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., van Zeist, W.-J., Visconti, P., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Bunting, G., Burgess, N.D., Cornell, S.E., Di Fulvio, F., Ferrier, S., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harwood, T., Havlik, P., Herrero, M., Hoskins, A.J., Jung, M., Kram, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B.B.N., van Vuuren, D., Ware, C., Watson, J.E.M., Wu, W., and Young, L.
Abstract: Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it provides1,2. Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity3; however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge4. Here we use an ensemble of land-use and biodiversity models to assess whether—and how—humanity can reverse the declines in terrestrial biodiversity caused by habitat conversion, which is a major threat to biodiversity5. We show that immediate efforts, consistent with the broader sustainability agenda but of unprecedented ambition and coordination, could enable the provision of food for the growing human population while reversing the global terrestrial biodiversity trends caused by habitat conversion. If we decide to increase the extent of land under conservation management, restore degraded land and generalize landscape-level conservation planning, biodiversity trends from habitat conversion could become positive by the mid-twenty-first century on average across models (confidence interval, 2042–2061), but this was not the case for all models. Food prices could increase and, on average across models, almost half (confidence interval, 34–50%) of the future biodiversity losses could not be avoided. However, additionally tackling the drivers of land-use change could avoid conflict with affordable food provision and reduces the environmental effects of the food-provision system. Through further sustainable intensification and trade, reduced food waste and more plant-based human diets, more than two thirds of future biodiversity losses are avoided and the biodiversity trends from habitat conversion are reversed by 2050 for almost all of the models. Although limiting further loss will remain challenging in several biodiversity-rich regions, and other threats—such as climate change—must be addressed to truly reverse the declines in biodiversity, our results show that am
Published: 2020

25. Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy

Author: Leclere, D., Obersteiner, M., Barrett, M., Butchart, S.H.M., Chaudhary, A., De Palma, A., DeClerck, F.A.J., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J.C., Dürauer, M., Freeman, R., Harfoot, M., Hasegawa, T., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J.P., Hill, S.L.L., Humpenöder, F., Jennings, N., Krisztin, T., Mace, G.M., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A.M., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., van Zeist, W.-J., Visconti, P., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Bunting, G., Burgess, N.D., Cornell, S.E., Di Fulvio, F., Ferrier, S., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harwood, T., Havlik, P., Herrero, M., Hoskins, A.J., Jung, M., Kram, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B.B.N., van Vuuren, D., Ware, C., Watson, J.E.M., Wu, W., Young, L., Leclere, D., Obersteiner, M., Barrett, M., Butchart, S.H.M., Chaudhary, A., De Palma, A., DeClerck, F.A.J., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J.C., Dürauer, M., Freeman, R., Harfoot, M., Hasegawa, T., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J.P., Hill, S.L.L., Humpenöder, F., Jennings, N., Krisztin, T., Mace, G.M., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A.M., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., van Zeist, W.-J., Visconti, P., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Bunting, G., Burgess, N.D., Cornell, S.E., Di Fulvio, F., Ferrier, S., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harwood, T., Havlik, P., Herrero, M., Hoskins, A.J., Jung, M., Kram, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B.B.N., van Vuuren, D., Ware, C., Watson, J.E.M., Wu, W., and Young, L.
Abstract: Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it provides1,2. Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity3; however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge4. Here we use an ensemble of land-use and biodiversity models to assess whether—and how—humanity can reverse the declines in terrestrial biodiversity caused by habitat conversion, which is a major threat to biodiversity5. We show that immediate efforts, consistent with the broader sustainability agenda but of unprecedented ambition and coordination, could enable the provision of food for the growing human population while reversing the global terrestrial biodiversity trends caused by habitat conversion. If we decide to increase the extent of land under conservation management, restore degraded land and generalize landscape-level conservation planning, biodiversity trends from habitat conversion could become positive by the mid-twenty-first century on average across models (confidence interval, 2042–2061), but this was not the case for all models. Food prices could increase and, on average across models, almost half (confidence interval, 34–50%) of the future biodiversity losses could not be avoided. However, additionally tackling the drivers of land-use change could avoid conflict with affordable food provision and reduces the environmental effects of the food-provision system. Through further sustainable intensification and trade, reduced food waste and more plant-based human diets, more than two thirds of future biodiversity losses are avoided and the biodiversity trends from habitat conversion are reversed by 2050 for almost all of the models. Although limiting further loss will remain challenging in several biodiversity-rich regions, and other threats—such as climate change—must be addressed to truly reverse the declines in biodiversity, our results show that am
Published: 2020

26. Global trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Author: Pereira, H.M., Rosa, I.M.D., Martins, I.S., Kim, H., Leadley, P., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D.P., Hurtt, G., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Guerra, C.A., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T.D., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlik, Petr, Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J.P., Hill, S.L.L., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A.J., Humpenöder, F., Janse, J.H., Jetz, W., Johnson, J.A., Krause, A., Leclere, D., Matsui, T., Meijer, J.R., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A.M., Settele, J., Sharp, R., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B.N.B., Takahashi, K., Talluto, M.V., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F, Alkemade, R., Pereira, H.M., Rosa, I.M.D., Martins, I.S., Kim, H., Leadley, P., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D.P., Hurtt, G., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Guerra, C.A., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T.D., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlik, Petr, Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J.P., Hill, S.L.L., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A.J., Humpenöder, F., Janse, J.H., Jetz, W., Johnson, J.A., Krause, A., Leclere, D., Matsui, T., Meijer, J.R., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A.M., Settele, J., Sharp, R., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B.N.B., Takahashi, K., Talluto, M.V., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F, and Alkemade, R.
Abstract: Despite the scientific consensus on the extinction crisis and its anthropogenic origin, the quantification of historical trends and of future scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services has been limited, due to the lack of inter-model comparisons and harmonized scenarios. Here, we present a multi-model analysis to assess the impacts of land-use and climate change from 1900 to 2050. During the 20th century provisioning services increased, but biodiversity and regulating services decreased. Similar trade-offs are projected for the coming decades, but they may be attenuated in a sustainability scenario. Future biodiversity loss from land-use change is projected to keep up with historical rates or reduce slightly, whereas losses due to climate change are projected to increase greatly. Renewed efforts are needed by governments to meet the 2050 vision of the Convention on Biological Diversity.
Published: 2020

27. Global trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Author: Pereira, H.M., Rosa, I.M.D., Martins, I.S., Kim, H., Leadley, P., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D.P., Hurtt, G., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Guerra, C.A., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T.D., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlik, Petr, Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J.P., Hill, S.L.L., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A.J., Humpenöder, F., Janse, J.H., Jetz, W., Johnson, J.A., Krause, A., Leclere, D., Matsui, T., Meijer, J.R., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A.M., Settele, J., Sharp, R., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B.N.B., Takahashi, K., Talluto, M.V., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F, Alkemade, R., Pereira, H.M., Rosa, I.M.D., Martins, I.S., Kim, H., Leadley, P., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D.P., Hurtt, G., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Guerra, C.A., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T.D., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlik, Petr, Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J.P., Hill, S.L.L., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A.J., Humpenöder, F., Janse, J.H., Jetz, W., Johnson, J.A., Krause, A., Leclere, D., Matsui, T., Meijer, J.R., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A.M., Settele, J., Sharp, R., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B.N.B., Takahashi, K., Talluto, M.V., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F, and Alkemade, R.
Abstract: Despite the scientific consensus on the extinction crisis and its anthropogenic origin, the quantification of historical trends and of future scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services has been limited, due to the lack of inter-model comparisons and harmonized scenarios. Here, we present a multi-model analysis to assess the impacts of land-use and climate change from 1900 to 2050. During the 20th century provisioning services increased, but biodiversity and regulating services decreased. Similar trade-offs are projected for the coming decades, but they may be attenuated in a sustainability scenario. Future biodiversity loss from land-use change is projected to keep up with historical rates or reduce slightly, whereas losses due to climate change are projected to increase greatly. Renewed efforts are needed by governments to meet the 2050 vision of the Convention on Biological Diversity.
Published: 2020

28. Essential biodiversity variables for mapping and monitoring species populations

Author: Jetz, W., McGeoch, M.A., Guralnick, R., Ferrier, S., Beck, J., Costello, M.J., Fernandez, M., Geller, G.N., Keil, P., Merow, C., Meyer, C., Muller-Karger, F.E., Pereira, H.M., Regan, E.C., Schmeller, Dirk Sven, Turak, E., Jetz, W., McGeoch, M.A., Guralnick, R., Ferrier, S., Beck, J., Costello, M.J., Fernandez, M., Geller, G.N., Keil, P., Merow, C., Meyer, C., Muller-Karger, F.E., Pereira, H.M., Regan, E.C., Schmeller, Dirk Sven, and Turak, E.
Abstract: Species distributions and abundances are undergoing rapid changes worldwide. This highlights the significance of reliable, integrated information for guiding and assessing actions and policies aimed at managing and sustaining the many functions and benefits of species. Here we synthesize the types of data and approaches that are required to achieve such an integration and conceptualize ‘essential biodiversity variables’ (EBVs) for a unified global capture of species populations in space and time. The inherent heterogeneity and sparseness of raw biodiversity data are overcome by the use of models and remotely sensed covariates to inform predictions that are contiguous in space and time and global in extent. We define the species population EBVs as a space–time–species–gram (cube) that simultaneously addresses the distribution or abundance of multiple species, with its resolution adjusted to represent available evidence and acceptable levels of uncertainty. This essential information enables the monitoring of single or aggregate spatial or taxonomic units at scales relevant to research and decision-making. When combined with ancillary environmental or species data, this fundamental species population information directly underpins a range of biodiversity and ecosystem function indicators. The unified concept we present links disparate data to downstream uses and informs a vision for species population monitoring in which data collection is closely integrated with models and infrastructure to support effective biodiversity assessment.
Published: 2019

29. Supporting material for the article entitled “Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy”

Author: Leclere, D., Obersteiner, M., Butchart, S.H.M., Chaudhary, A., De Palma, A., DeClerk, F.A., Di Marco, M., Dürauer, M., Doelman, J.C., Freeman, R., Harfoot, M., Hasegawa, T., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J., Hill, S., Humpenöder, F., Jennings, N., Krisztin, T., Mace, G., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., van Zeist, W.J., Visconti, P., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Bunting, G., Burgess, N.D., Cornell, S.E., Di Fulvio, F., Ferrier, S., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harwood, T., Havlik, P., Herrero, M., Hoskins, A., Jung, M., Kram, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B., van Duuren, D., Ware, C., Watson, J., Wu, W., Young, L., Leclere, D., Obersteiner, M., Butchart, S.H.M., Chaudhary, A., De Palma, A., DeClerk, F.A., Di Marco, M., Dürauer, M., Doelman, J.C., Freeman, R., Harfoot, M., Hasegawa, T., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J., Hill, S., Humpenöder, F., Jennings, N., Krisztin, T., Mace, G., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., van Zeist, W.J., Visconti, P., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Bunting, G., Burgess, N.D., Cornell, S.E., Di Fulvio, F., Ferrier, S., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harwood, T., Havlik, P., Herrero, M., Hoskins, A., Jung, M., Kram, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B., van Duuren, D., Ware, C., Watson, J., Wu, W., and Young, L.
Abstract: The archive provides supporting material for the article entitled “Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy”, published in the Nature journal (https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2705-y). It contains: i) the final version of the methodological report (updating the initial version [DOI:10.22022/ESM/04-2018.15241] for this article), ii) geospatial land-use projections generated by land-use models for the various scenarios described in the article, iii) aggregated land-use model projections for other variables used in the article, iv) the code, input data and output data of the various biodiversity models applied to the land use projections, v) the code and side data to produce numbers and figures presented in the article.”
Published: 2019

30. Supporting material for the article entitled “Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy”

Author: Leclere, D., Obersteiner, M., Butchart, S.H.M., Chaudhary, A., De Palma, A., DeClerk, F.A., Di Marco, M., Dürauer, M., Doelman, J.C., Freeman, R., Harfoot, M., Hasegawa, T., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J., Hill, S., Humpenöder, F., Jennings, N., Krisztin, T., Mace, G., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., van Zeist, W.J., Visconti, P., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Bunting, G., Burgess, N.D., Cornell, S.E., Di Fulvio, F., Ferrier, S., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harwood, T., Havlik, P., Herrero, M., Hoskins, A., Jung, M., Kram, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B., van Duuren, D., Ware, C., Watson, J., Wu, W., Young, L., Leclere, D., Obersteiner, M., Butchart, S.H.M., Chaudhary, A., De Palma, A., DeClerk, F.A., Di Marco, M., Dürauer, M., Doelman, J.C., Freeman, R., Harfoot, M., Hasegawa, T., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J., Hill, S., Humpenöder, F., Jennings, N., Krisztin, T., Mace, G., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., van Zeist, W.J., Visconti, P., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Bunting, G., Burgess, N.D., Cornell, S.E., Di Fulvio, F., Ferrier, S., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harwood, T., Havlik, P., Herrero, M., Hoskins, A., Jung, M., Kram, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B., van Duuren, D., Ware, C., Watson, J., Wu, W., and Young, L.
Abstract: The archive provides supporting material for the article entitled “Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy”, published in the Nature journal (https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2705-y). It contains: i) the final version of the methodological report (updating the initial version [DOI:10.22022/ESM/04-2018.15241] for this article), ii) geospatial land-use projections generated by land-use models for the various scenarios described in the article, iii) aggregated land-use model projections for other variables used in the article, iv) the code, input data and output data of the various biodiversity models applied to the land use projections, v) the code and side data to produce numbers and figures presented in the article.”
Published: 2019

31. Reversing terrestrial biodiversity declines due to habitat loss: a multi-model assessment

Author: Leclere, D., Obersteiner, M., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Barrett, M., Bunting, G., Burgess, N., Butchart, S., Chaudhary, A., Cornell, S., De Palma, A., DeClerck, F., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J., Dürauer, M., Ferrier, S., Freeman, R., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Herrero, M., Hilbers, J., Hill, S., Hoskins, A., Humpenöder, F., Kram, T., Krisztin, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Mace, G., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., van Vuuren, D., van Zeist, W., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Watson, J., Wu, W., Young, L., Leclere, D., Obersteiner, M., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Barrett, M., Bunting, G., Burgess, N., Butchart, S., Chaudhary, A., Cornell, S., De Palma, A., DeClerck, F., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J., Dürauer, M., Ferrier, S., Freeman, R., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Herrero, M., Hilbers, J., Hill, S., Hoskins, A., Humpenöder, F., Kram, T., Krisztin, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Mace, G., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., van Vuuren, D., van Zeist, W., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Watson, J., Wu, W., and Young, L.
Published: 2019

32. Reversing terrestrial biodiversity declines due to habitat loss: a multi-model assessment

Author: Leclere, D., Obersteiner, M., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Barrett, M., Bunting, G., Burgess, N., Butchart, S., Chaudhary, A., Cornell, S., De Palma, A., DeClerck, F., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J., Dürauer, M., Ferrier, S., Freeman, R., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Herrero, M., Hilbers, J., Hill, S., Hoskins, A., Humpenöder, F., Kram, T., Krisztin, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Mace, G., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., van Vuuren, D., van Zeist, W., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Watson, J., Wu, W., Young, L., Leclere, D., Obersteiner, M., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Barrett, M., Bunting, G., Burgess, N., Butchart, S., Chaudhary, A., Cornell, S., De Palma, A., DeClerck, F., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J., Dürauer, M., Ferrier, S., Freeman, R., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Herrero, M., Hilbers, J., Hill, S., Hoskins, A., Humpenöder, F., Kram, T., Krisztin, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Mace, G., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., van Vuuren, D., van Zeist, W., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Watson, J., Wu, W., and Young, L.
Published: 2019

33. Reversing terrestrial biodiversity declines due to habitat loss: a multi-model assessment

Author: Leclere, D., Obersteiner, M., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Barrett, M., Bunting, G., Burgess, N., Butchart, S., Chaudhary, A., Cornell, S., De Palma, A., DeClerck, F., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J., Dürauer, M., Ferrier, S., Freeman, R., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Herrero, M., Hilbers, J., Hill, S., Hoskins, A., Humpenöder, F., Kram, T., Krisztin, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Mace, G., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., van Vuuren, D., van Zeist, W., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Watson, J., Wu, W., Young, L., Leclere, D., Obersteiner, M., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Barrett, M., Bunting, G., Burgess, N., Butchart, S., Chaudhary, A., Cornell, S., De Palma, A., DeClerck, F., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J., Dürauer, M., Ferrier, S., Freeman, R., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Herrero, M., Hilbers, J., Hill, S., Hoskins, A., Humpenöder, F., Kram, T., Krisztin, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Mace, G., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., van Vuuren, D., van Zeist, W., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Watson, J., Wu, W., and Young, L.
Published: 2019

34. A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios

Author: Kim, H., Rosa, I.M.D., Alkemade, R., Leadley, P., Hurtt, G., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Caton, E., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., De Palma, A., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Espinoza, F., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Gonzalez, R.E., Gueguen, M., Guerra, C., Hartfoot, M., Harwood, T.D., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Hill, S.L.L., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A.J., Janse, J.H., Jetz, W., Johnson, J.A., Krause, A., Leclere, D., Martins, I.S., Matsui, T., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A., Sharp, R., Takahashi, K., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F., Pereira, H.M., Kim, H., Rosa, I.M.D., Alkemade, R., Leadley, P., Hurtt, G., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Caton, E., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., De Palma, A., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Espinoza, F., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Gonzalez, R.E., Gueguen, M., Guerra, C., Hartfoot, M., Harwood, T.D., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Hill, S.L.L., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A.J., Janse, J.H., Jetz, W., Johnson, J.A., Krause, A., Leclere, D., Martins, I.S., Matsui, T., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A., Sharp, R., Takahashi, K., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F., and Pereira, H.M.
Abstract: To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e. nature's contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenarios selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem service models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modelling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modelling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.
Published: 2018

35. A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios

Author: Kim, H., Rosa, I. M. D., Alkemade, R., Leadley, P., Hurtt, G., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D. P., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Caton, E., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., De Palma, A., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Espinoza, F., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Gonzalez, R. E., Gueguen, M., Guerra, C., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T. D., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlík, P., Hellweg, S., Hill, S. L. L., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A. J., Janse, J. H., Jetz, W., Johnson, J. A., Krause, A., Leclère, D., Martins, I. S., Matsui, T., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A. M., Sharp, R., Takahashi, K., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F., Pereira, H. M., Kim, H., Rosa, I. M. D., Alkemade, R., Leadley, P., Hurtt, G., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D. P., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Caton, E., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., De Palma, A., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Espinoza, F., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Gonzalez, R. E., Gueguen, M., Guerra, C., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T. D., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlík, P., Hellweg, S., Hill, S. L. L., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A. J., Janse, J. H., Jetz, W., Johnson, J. A., Krause, A., Leclère, D., Martins, I. S., Matsui, T., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A. M., Sharp, R., Takahashi, K., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F., and Pereira, H. M.
Published: 2018

36. A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios

Author: Kim, H., Rosa, I.M.D., Alkemade, R., Leadley, P., Hurtt, G., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Caton, E., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., De Palma, A., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Espinoza, F., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Gonzalez, R.E., Gueguen, M., Guerra, C., Hartfoot, M., Harwood, T.D., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Hill, S.L.L., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A.J., Janse, J.H., Jetz, W., Johnson, J.A., Krause, A., Leclere, D., Martins, I.S., Matsui, T., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A., Sharp, R., Takahashi, K., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F., Pereira, H.M., Kim, H., Rosa, I.M.D., Alkemade, R., Leadley, P., Hurtt, G., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Caton, E., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., De Palma, A., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Espinoza, F., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Gonzalez, R.E., Gueguen, M., Guerra, C., Hartfoot, M., Harwood, T.D., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Hill, S.L.L., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A.J., Janse, J.H., Jetz, W., Johnson, J.A., Krause, A., Leclere, D., Martins, I.S., Matsui, T., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A., Sharp, R., Takahashi, K., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F., and Pereira, H.M.
Abstract: To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e. nature's contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenarios selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem service models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modelling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modelling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.
Published: 2018

37. A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios

Author: Kim, H.J., Rosa, I.M.D., Alkemade, R., Leadley, P., Hurtt, G., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D.P., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Caton, E., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., De Palma, A., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Espinoza, F., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Gonzalez, R.E., Gueguen, M., Guerra, C., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T.D., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlík, P., Hellweg, S., Hill, S.L.L., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A.J., Janse, J.H., Jetz, W., Johnson, J.A., Krause, A., Leclère, D., Martins, I.S., Matsui, T., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A.M., Sharp, R., Takahashi, K., Thuiller, W., Titeux, Nicolas, Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F., Pereira, H.M., Kim, H.J., Rosa, I.M.D., Alkemade, R., Leadley, P., Hurtt, G., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D.P., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Caton, E., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., De Palma, A., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Espinoza, F., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Gonzalez, R.E., Gueguen, M., Guerra, C., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T.D., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlík, P., Hellweg, S., Hill, S.L.L., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A.J., Janse, J.H., Jetz, W., Johnson, J.A., Krause, A., Leclère, D., Martins, I.S., Matsui, T., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A.M., Sharp, R., Takahashi, K., Thuiller, W., Titeux, Nicolas, Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F., and Pereira, H.M.
Abstract: To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land-use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e., nature's contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) – SSP1xRCP2.6, SSP3xRCP6.0, SSP5xRCP8.6 – to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenario selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem services models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modeling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modeling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.
Published: 2018

38. A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios

Author: Kim, H., Rosa, I. M. D., Alkemade, R., Leadley, P., Hurtt, G., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D. P., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Caton, E., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., De Palma, A., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Espinoza, F., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Gonzalez, R. E., Gueguen, M., Guerra, C., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T. D., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlík, P., Hellweg, S., Hill, S. L. L., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A. J., Janse, J. H., Jetz, W., Johnson, J. A., Krause, A., Leclère, D., Martins, I. S., Matsui, T., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A. M., Sharp, R., Takahashi, K., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F., Pereira, H. M., Kim, H., Rosa, I. M. D., Alkemade, R., Leadley, P., Hurtt, G., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D. P., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Caton, E., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., De Palma, A., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Espinoza, F., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Gonzalez, R. E., Gueguen, M., Guerra, C., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T. D., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlík, P., Hellweg, S., Hill, S. L. L., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A. J., Janse, J. H., Jetz, W., Johnson, J. A., Krause, A., Leclère, D., Martins, I. S., Matsui, T., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A. M., Sharp, R., Takahashi, K., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F., and Pereira, H. M.
Published: 2018

39. Bending the curve on terrestrial biodiversity loss: a multi model assessment

Author: Leclere, D., Obersteiner, M., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Barrett, M., Bunting, G., Burgess, N., Butchart, S., Chaudhary, A., Cornell, S., De Palma, A., DeClerck, F., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J., Dürauer, M., Ferrier, S., Freeman, R., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Herrero, M., Hilbers, J., Hill, S., Hoskins, A., Humpenöder, F., Kram, T., Krisztin, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Mace, G., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., van Vuuren, D., van Zeist, W., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Watson, J., Wu, W., Young, L., Leclere, D., Obersteiner, M., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Barrett, M., Bunting, G., Burgess, N., Butchart, S., Chaudhary, A., Cornell, S., De Palma, A., DeClerck, F., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J., Dürauer, M., Ferrier, S., Freeman, R., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Herrero, M., Hilbers, J., Hill, S., Hoskins, A., Humpenöder, F., Kram, T., Krisztin, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Mace, G., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., van Vuuren, D., van Zeist, W., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Watson, J., Wu, W., and Young, L.
Published: 2018

40. Bending the curve on terrestrial biodiversity loss: a multi model assessment

Author: Leclere, D., Obersteiner, M., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Barrett, M., Bunting, G., Burgess, N., Butchart, S., Chaudhary, A., Cornell, S., De Palma, A., DeClerck, F., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J., Dürauer, M., Ferrier, S., Freeman, R., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Herrero, M., Hilbers, J., Hill, S., Hoskins, A., Humpenöder, F., Kram, T., Krisztin, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Mace, G., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., van Vuuren, D., van Zeist, W., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Watson, J., Wu, W., Young, L., Leclere, D., Obersteiner, M., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Barrett, M., Bunting, G., Burgess, N., Butchart, S., Chaudhary, A., Cornell, S., De Palma, A., DeClerck, F., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J., Dürauer, M., Ferrier, S., Freeman, R., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Herrero, M., Hilbers, J., Hill, S., Hoskins, A., Humpenöder, F., Kram, T., Krisztin, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Mace, G., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., van Vuuren, D., van Zeist, W., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Watson, J., Wu, W., and Young, L.
Published: 2018

41. Bending the curve on terrestrial biodiversity loss: a multi model assessment

Author: Leclere, D., Obersteiner, M., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Barrett, M., Bunting, G., Burgess, N., Butchart, S., Chaudhary, A., Cornell, S., De Palma, A., DeClerck, F., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J., Dürauer, M., Ferrier, S., Freeman, R., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Herrero, M., Hilbers, J., Hill, S., Hoskins, A., Humpenöder, F., Kram, T., Krisztin, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Mace, G., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., van Vuuren, D., van Zeist, W., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Watson, J., Wu, W., Young, L., Leclere, D., Obersteiner, M., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Barrett, M., Bunting, G., Burgess, N., Butchart, S., Chaudhary, A., Cornell, S., De Palma, A., DeClerck, F., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J., Dürauer, M., Ferrier, S., Freeman, R., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Herrero, M., Hilbers, J., Hill, S., Hoskins, A., Humpenöder, F., Kram, T., Krisztin, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Mace, G., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., van Vuuren, D., van Zeist, W., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Watson, J., Wu, W., and Young, L.
Published: 2018

42. Managing consequences of climate-driven species redistribution requires integration of ecology, conservation and social science

Author: Bonebrake, TC, Brown, CJ, Bell, JD, Blanchard, JL, Chauvenet, A, Champion, C, Chen, IC, Clark, TD, Colwell, RK, Danielsen, F, Dell, AI, Donelson, JM, Evengård, B, Ferrier, S, Frusher, S, Garcia, RA, Griffis, RB, Hobday, AJ, Jarzyna, MA, Lee, E, Lenoir, J, Linnetved, H, Martin, VY, McCormack, PC, McDonald, J, McDonald-Madden, E, Mitchell, N, Mustonen, T, Pandolfi, JM, Pettorelli, N, Possingham, H, Pulsifer, P, Reynolds, M, Scheffers, BR, Sorte, CJB, Strugnell, JM, Tuanmu, MN, Twiname, S, Vergés, A, Villanueva, C, Wapstra, E, Wernberg, T, Pecl, GT, Bonebrake, TC, Brown, CJ, Bell, JD, Blanchard, JL, Chauvenet, A, Champion, C, Chen, IC, Clark, TD, Colwell, RK, Danielsen, F, Dell, AI, Donelson, JM, Evengård, B, Ferrier, S, Frusher, S, Garcia, RA, Griffis, RB, Hobday, AJ, Jarzyna, MA, Lee, E, Lenoir, J, Linnetved, H, Martin, VY, McCormack, PC, McDonald, J, McDonald-Madden, E, Mitchell, N, Mustonen, T, Pandolfi, JM, Pettorelli, N, Possingham, H, Pulsifer, P, Reynolds, M, Scheffers, BR, Sorte, CJB, Strugnell, JM, Tuanmu, MN, Twiname, S, Vergés, A, Villanueva, C, Wapstra, E, Wernberg, T, and Pecl, GT
Abstract: © 2017 Cambridge Philosophical Society Climate change is driving a pervasive global redistribution of the planet's species. Species redistribution poses new questions for the study of ecosystems, conservation science and human societies that require a coordinated and integrated approach. Here we review recent progress, key gaps and strategic directions in this nascent research area, emphasising emerging themes in species redistribution biology, the importance of understanding underlying drivers and the need to anticipate novel outcomes of changes in species ranges. We highlight that species redistribution has manifest implications across multiple temporal and spatial scales and from genes to ecosystems. Understanding range shifts from ecological, physiological, genetic and biogeographical perspectives is essential for informing changing paradigms in conservation science and for designing conservation strategies that incorporate changing population connectivity and advance adaptation to climate change. Species redistributions present challenges for human well-being, environmental management and sustainable development. By synthesising recent approaches, theories and tools, our review establishes an interdisciplinary foundation for the development of future research on species redistribution. Specifically, we demonstrate how ecological, conservation and social research on species redistribution can best be achieved by working across disciplinary boundaries to develop and implement solutions to climate change challenges. Future studies should therefore integrate existing and complementary scientific frameworks while incorporating social science and human-centred approaches. Finally, we emphasise that the best science will not be useful unless more scientists engage with managers, policy makers and the public to develop responsible and socially acceptable options for the global challenges arising from species redistributions.
Published: 2018

43. Managing consequences of climate-driven species redistribution requires integration of ecology, conservation and social science

Author: Bonebrake, TC, Brown, CJ, Bell, JD, Blanchard, JL, Chauvenet, A, Champion, C, Chen, IC, Clark, TD, Colwell, RK, Danielsen, F, Dell, AI, Donelson, JM, Evengård, B, Ferrier, S, Frusher, S, Garcia, RA, Griffis, RB, Hobday, AJ, Jarzyna, MA, Lee, E, Lenoir, J, Linnetved, H, Martin, VY, McCormack, PC, McDonald, J, McDonald-Madden, E, Mitchell, N, Mustonen, T, Pandolfi, JM, Pettorelli, N, Possingham, H, Pulsifer, P, Reynolds, M, Scheffers, BR, Sorte, CJB, Strugnell, JM, Tuanmu, MN, Twiname, S, Vergés, A, Villanueva, C, Wapstra, E, Wernberg, T, Pecl, GT, Bonebrake, TC, Brown, CJ, Bell, JD, Blanchard, JL, Chauvenet, A, Champion, C, Chen, IC, Clark, TD, Colwell, RK, Danielsen, F, Dell, AI, Donelson, JM, Evengård, B, Ferrier, S, Frusher, S, Garcia, RA, Griffis, RB, Hobday, AJ, Jarzyna, MA, Lee, E, Lenoir, J, Linnetved, H, Martin, VY, McCormack, PC, McDonald, J, McDonald-Madden, E, Mitchell, N, Mustonen, T, Pandolfi, JM, Pettorelli, N, Possingham, H, Pulsifer, P, Reynolds, M, Scheffers, BR, Sorte, CJB, Strugnell, JM, Tuanmu, MN, Twiname, S, Vergés, A, Villanueva, C, Wapstra, E, Wernberg, T, and Pecl, GT
Abstract: © 2017 Cambridge Philosophical Society Climate change is driving a pervasive global redistribution of the planet's species. Species redistribution poses new questions for the study of ecosystems, conservation science and human societies that require a coordinated and integrated approach. Here we review recent progress, key gaps and strategic directions in this nascent research area, emphasising emerging themes in species redistribution biology, the importance of understanding underlying drivers and the need to anticipate novel outcomes of changes in species ranges. We highlight that species redistribution has manifest implications across multiple temporal and spatial scales and from genes to ecosystems. Understanding range shifts from ecological, physiological, genetic and biogeographical perspectives is essential for informing changing paradigms in conservation science and for designing conservation strategies that incorporate changing population connectivity and advance adaptation to climate change. Species redistributions present challenges for human well-being, environmental management and sustainable development. By synthesising recent approaches, theories and tools, our review establishes an interdisciplinary foundation for the development of future research on species redistribution. Specifically, we demonstrate how ecological, conservation and social research on species redistribution can best be achieved by working across disciplinary boundaries to develop and implement solutions to climate change challenges. Future studies should therefore integrate existing and complementary scientific frameworks while incorporating social science and human-centred approaches. Finally, we emphasise that the best science will not be useful unless more scientists engage with managers, policy makers and the public to develop responsible and socially acceptable options for the global challenges arising from species redistributions.
Published: 2018

44. Towards pathways bending the curve terrestrial biodiversity trends within the 21st century

Author: Leclere, D., Obersteiner, M., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Barrett, M., Bunting, G., Burgess, N., Butchart, S., Chaudhary, A., Cornell, S., De Palma, A., DeClerck, F., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J., Dürauer, M., Ferrier, S., Freeman, R., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Herrero, M., Hilbers, J., Hill, S., Hoskins, A., Humpenöder, F., Kram, T., Krisztin, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Mace, G., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., van Vuuren, D., van Zeist, W., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Watson, J., Wu, W., Young, L., Leclere, D., Obersteiner, M., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Barrett, M., Bunting, G., Burgess, N., Butchart, S., Chaudhary, A., Cornell, S., De Palma, A., DeClerck, F., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J., Dürauer, M., Ferrier, S., Freeman, R., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Herrero, M., Hilbers, J., Hill, S., Hoskins, A., Humpenöder, F., Kram, T., Krisztin, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Mace, G., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., van Vuuren, D., van Zeist, W., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Watson, J., Wu, W., and Young, L.
Abstract: Unless actions are taken to reduce multiple anthropogenic pressures, biodiversity is expected to continue declining at an alarming rate. Models and scenarios can be used to help design the pathways to sustain a thriving nature and its ability to contribute to people. This approach has so far been hampered by the complexity associated with combining projections of pressures on, and subsequent responses from, biodiversity. Most previous assessments have projected continuous biodiversity declines and very few have identified pathways for reversing the loss of biodiversity without jeopardizing other objectives such as development or climate mitigation. The Bending The Curve initiative set out to advance quantitative modelling techniques towards ambitious scenarios for biodiversity. In this proof-of-concept analysis, we developed a modelling approach that demonstrates how global land use and biodiversity models can shed light on wedges able to bend the curve of biodiversity trends as affected by land-use change, the biggest current threat to biodiversity. In order to address the uncertainties associated with such pathways we used a multi-model framework and relied on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway/Representative Concentration Pathway scenario framework. This report describes the details of this modelling approach.
Published: 2018

45. Towards pathways bending the curve terrestrial biodiversity trends within the 21st century

Author: Leclere, D., Obersteiner, M., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Barrett, M., Bunting, G., Burgess, N., Butchart, S., Chaudhary, A., Cornell, S., De Palma, A., DeClerck, F., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J., Dürauer, M., Ferrier, S., Freeman, R., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Herrero, M., Hilbers, J., Hill, S., Hoskins, A., Humpenöder, F., Kram, T., Krisztin, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Mace, G., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., van Vuuren, D., van Zeist, W., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Watson, J., Wu, W., Young, L., Leclere, D., Obersteiner, M., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Barrett, M., Bunting, G., Burgess, N., Butchart, S., Chaudhary, A., Cornell, S., De Palma, A., DeClerck, F., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J., Dürauer, M., Ferrier, S., Freeman, R., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Herrero, M., Hilbers, J., Hill, S., Hoskins, A., Humpenöder, F., Kram, T., Krisztin, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Mace, G., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., van Vuuren, D., van Zeist, W., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Watson, J., Wu, W., and Young, L.
Abstract: Unless actions are taken to reduce multiple anthropogenic pressures, biodiversity is expected to continue declining at an alarming rate. Models and scenarios can be used to help design the pathways to sustain a thriving nature and its ability to contribute to people. This approach has so far been hampered by the complexity associated with combining projections of pressures on, and subsequent responses from, biodiversity. Most previous assessments have projected continuous biodiversity declines and very few have identified pathways for reversing the loss of biodiversity without jeopardizing other objectives such as development or climate mitigation. The Bending The Curve initiative set out to advance quantitative modelling techniques towards ambitious scenarios for biodiversity. In this proof-of-concept analysis, we developed a modelling approach that demonstrates how global land use and biodiversity models can shed light on wedges able to bend the curve of biodiversity trends as affected by land-use change, the biggest current threat to biodiversity. In order to address the uncertainties associated with such pathways we used a multi-model framework and relied on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway/Representative Concentration Pathway scenario framework. This report describes the details of this modelling approach.
Published: 2018

46. A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios

Author: Kim, H., Rosa, I.M.D., Alkemade, R., Leadley, P., Hurtt, G., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Caton, E., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., De Palma, A., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Espinoza, F., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Gonzalez, R.E., Gueguen, M., Guerra, C., Hartfoot, M., Harwood, T.D., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Hill, S.L.L., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A.J., Janse, J.H., Jetz, W., Johnson, J.A., Krause, A., Leclere, D., Martins, I.S., Matsui, T., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A., Sharp, R., Takahashi, K., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F., Pereira, H.M., Kim, H., Rosa, I.M.D., Alkemade, R., Leadley, P., Hurtt, G., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Caton, E., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., De Palma, A., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Espinoza, F., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Gonzalez, R.E., Gueguen, M., Guerra, C., Hartfoot, M., Harwood, T.D., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Hill, S.L.L., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A.J., Janse, J.H., Jetz, W., Johnson, J.A., Krause, A., Leclere, D., Martins, I.S., Matsui, T., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A., Sharp, R., Takahashi, K., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F., and Pereira, H.M.
Abstract: To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e. nature's contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenarios selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem service models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modelling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modelling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.
Published: 2018

47. A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios

Author: Kim, H., Rosa, I.M.D., Alkemade, R., Leadley, P., Hurtt, G., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Caton, E., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., De Palma, A., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Espinoza, F., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Gonzalez, R.E., Gueguen, M., Guerra, C., Hartfoot, M., Harwood, T.D., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Hill, S.L.L., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A.J., Janse, J.H., Jetz, W., Johnson, J.A., Krause, A., Leclere, D., Martins, I.S., Matsui, T., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A., Sharp, R., Takahashi, K., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F., Pereira, H.M., Kim, H., Rosa, I.M.D., Alkemade, R., Leadley, P., Hurtt, G., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Caton, E., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., De Palma, A., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Espinoza, F., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Gonzalez, R.E., Gueguen, M., Guerra, C., Hartfoot, M., Harwood, T.D., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Hill, S.L.L., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A.J., Janse, J.H., Jetz, W., Johnson, J.A., Krause, A., Leclere, D., Martins, I.S., Matsui, T., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A., Sharp, R., Takahashi, K., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F., and Pereira, H.M.
Abstract: To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e. nature's contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenarios selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem service models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modelling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modelling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.
Published: 2018

48. Towards pathways bending the curve terrestrial biodiversity trends within the 21st century

Author: Leclere, D., Obersteiner, M., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Barrett, M., Bunting, G., Burgess, N., Butchart, S., Chaudhary, A., Cornell, S., De Palma, A., DeClerck, F., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J., Dürauer, M., Ferrier, S., Freeman, R., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Herrero, M., Hilbers, J., Hill, S., Hoskins, A., Humpenöder, F., Kram, T., Krisztin, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Mace, G., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., van Vuuren, D., van Zeist, W., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Watson, J., Wu, W., Young, L., Leclere, D., Obersteiner, M., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Barrett, M., Bunting, G., Burgess, N., Butchart, S., Chaudhary, A., Cornell, S., De Palma, A., DeClerck, F., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J., Dürauer, M., Ferrier, S., Freeman, R., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Herrero, M., Hilbers, J., Hill, S., Hoskins, A., Humpenöder, F., Kram, T., Krisztin, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Mace, G., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., van Vuuren, D., van Zeist, W., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Watson, J., Wu, W., and Young, L.
Abstract: Unless actions are taken to reduce multiple anthropogenic pressures, biodiversity is expected to continue declining at an alarming rate. Models and scenarios can be used to help design the pathways to sustain a thriving nature and its ability to contribute to people. This approach has so far been hampered by the complexity associated with combining projections of pressures on, and subsequent responses from, biodiversity. Most previous assessments have projected continuous biodiversity declines and very few have identified pathways for reversing the loss of biodiversity without jeopardizing other objectives such as development or climate mitigation. The Bending The Curve initiative set out to advance quantitative modelling techniques towards ambitious scenarios for biodiversity. In this proof-of-concept analysis, we developed a modelling approach that demonstrates how global land use and biodiversity models can shed light on wedges able to bend the curve of biodiversity trends as affected by land-use change, the biggest current threat to biodiversity. In order to address the uncertainties associated with such pathways we used a multi-model framework and relied on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway/Representative Concentration Pathway scenario framework. This report describes the details of this modelling approach.
Published: 2018

49. A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios

Author: Kim, H., Rosa, I.M.D., Alkemade, R., Leadley, P., Hurtt, G., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Caton, E., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., De Palma, A., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Espinoza, F., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Gonzalez, R.E., Gueguen, M., Guerra, C., Hartfoot, M., Harwood, T.D., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Hill, S.L.L., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A.J., Janse, J.H., Jetz, W., Johnson, J.A., Krause, A., Leclere, D., Martins, I.S., Matsui, T., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A., Sharp, R., Takahashi, K., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F., Pereira, H.M., Kim, H., Rosa, I.M.D., Alkemade, R., Leadley, P., Hurtt, G., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Caton, E., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., De Palma, A., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Espinoza, F., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Gonzalez, R.E., Gueguen, M., Guerra, C., Hartfoot, M., Harwood, T.D., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Hill, S.L.L., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A.J., Janse, J.H., Jetz, W., Johnson, J.A., Krause, A., Leclere, D., Martins, I.S., Matsui, T., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A., Sharp, R., Takahashi, K., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F., and Pereira, H.M.
Abstract: To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e. nature's contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenarios selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem service models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modelling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modelling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.
Published: 2018

50. Visions for nature and nature’s contributions to people for the 21st century. Report from an IPBES visioning workshop held on 4-8 September 2017 in Auckland, New Zealand

Author: Lundquist, C.J., Pereira, H.M., Alkemade, R., den Belder, E., Carvalho Ribeiro, S., Davies, K., Greenaway, A., Hauck, Jennifer, Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S.I., Kim, H., King, N., Lazarova, T., Pereira, L., Peterson, G., Ravera, F., van den Brink, T., Argumedo, A., Arida, C., Armenteras, D., Ausseil, A.G., Baptiste, B., Belanger, J., Bingham, K., Bowden-Kerby, A., Cao, M., Carino, J., Van Damme, P.A., Devivo, R., Dickson, F., Dushimumuremyi, J.P., Ferrier, S., Flores-Díaz, A., Foley, M., Garcia Marquez, J., Giraldo-Perez, P., Greenhaigh, S., Hamilton, D.J., Hardison, P., Hicks, G., Hughey, K., Kahui-McConnell, R., Karuri-Sebina, G., De Kock, M., Leadley, P., Lemaitre, F., Maltseva, E., de Mattos Scaramuzza, C.A., Metwally, M., Nelson, W., Ngo, H., Neumann, C., Norrie, C., Perry, J., Quintana, R., Rodriguez Osuna, V.E., Roehrl, C., Seager, J., Sharpe, H., Shortland, T., Shulbaeva, P., Sumaila, U.R., Takahashi, Y., Titeux, N., Tiwari, S., Trisos, C., Ursache, A., Wheatley, A., Wilson, D., Wood, S., van Wyk, E., Yue, T.X., Zulfikar, D., Lundquist, C.J., Pereira, H.M., Alkemade, R., den Belder, E., Carvalho Ribeiro, S., Davies, K., Greenaway, A., Hauck, Jennifer, Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S.I., Kim, H., King, N., Lazarova, T., Pereira, L., Peterson, G., Ravera, F., van den Brink, T., Argumedo, A., Arida, C., Armenteras, D., Ausseil, A.G., Baptiste, B., Belanger, J., Bingham, K., Bowden-Kerby, A., Cao, M., Carino, J., Van Damme, P.A., Devivo, R., Dickson, F., Dushimumuremyi, J.P., Ferrier, S., Flores-Díaz, A., Foley, M., Garcia Marquez, J., Giraldo-Perez, P., Greenhaigh, S., Hamilton, D.J., Hardison, P., Hicks, G., Hughey, K., Kahui-McConnell, R., Karuri-Sebina, G., De Kock, M., Leadley, P., Lemaitre, F., Maltseva, E., de Mattos Scaramuzza, C.A., Metwally, M., Nelson, W., Ngo, H., Neumann, C., Norrie, C., Perry, J., Quintana, R., Rodriguez Osuna, V.E., Roehrl, C., Seager, J., Sharpe, H., Shortland, T., Shulbaeva, P., Sumaila, U.R., Takahashi, Y., Titeux, N., Tiwari, S., Trisos, C., Ursache, A., Wheatley, A., Wilson, D., Wood, S., van Wyk, E., Yue, T.X., and Zulfikar, D.
Published: 2017

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