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This paper identifies the factors that explain Mexican households' simultaneous use of debt instruments, considering the distortion caused by heterogeneity in income distribution and the potential correlation in using different instruments. The National Survey of Household Finances is used through a simultaneous equations system approach based on multivariate Probit models by type of credit, being a novel methodology for the literature and the research's main contribution. The results show that higher-income households choose formal credit, especially credit cards. In addition, middle-income quintiles use departmental cards and informal credit. Finally, low-income households also use informal credit. In conclusion, this study is relevant to understanding the existing correlation in the use of household credit and thus promotes the joint financial inclusion of debt instruments., Este artículo identifica los factores que explican el uso simultáneo de los instrumentos de deuda que utilizan los hogares mexicanos, considerando la distorsión provocada por la heterogeneidad en la distribución de ingresos y la potencial correlación en el uso de distintos instrumentos. Se emplea la Encuesta Nacional de Finanzas de los Hogares mediante un enfoque de ecuaciones simultáneas basadas en modelos Probit multivariados por tipo de crédito, siendo una metodología novedosa para la literatura y la contribución principal del trabajo. Los resultados muestran que hogares con mayor ingreso eligen el crédito formal, especialmente tarjetas de crédito. Además, quintiles de ingreso medio emplean tarjetas departamentales y crédito informal. Finalmente, los de ingresos bajos también optan por el crédito informal. En conclusión, este estudio es relevante para entender la correlación existente en la utilización del crédito de los hogares y así fomentar la inclusión financiera a través de instrumentos de deuda

An understanding of factors influencing smallholder farmers’ livestock ownership at the household level is vital in formulating pro-poor livestock production policies and technologies. Hence, this study examined factors that influence livestock ownership of smallholder farmers. The data was collected randomly from three purposively selected study areas in the OR Tambo District (King Sabata Dalindyebo, Port St Johns and Ingquza Hill local municipalities) in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa using a cross-sectional survey of 650 households. A multivariate probit model (MPM) was used to estimate correlates of livestock species ownership at the household level. Results indicated that education, age, household income, marital status, religion, rainfall, gender, household size and employment status influence livestock species ownership at the household level. Therefore, efforts to promote livestock ownership and production should be guided by these significant explanatory variables in the study area. Interdependence among species was also noted (cattle and sheep; goats and pigs; sheep and pigs; cattle and goats; goats and sheep), suggesting complementarity among the different types of livestock species. This complementarity among the species can possibly be explained by functional diversity generic with multi-species livestock farming which is worth supporting to enhance biodiversity conservation, climate change mitigation, rural resource use efficiency and socio-economic sustainability at the household level.

Agriculture is highly impacted by different sources of risk. There is a wide variety of management instruments that farmers can use to cover these risks. The objective of this paper is to analyze the explanatory variables for the simultaneous adoption of a large set of risk management instruments. The main innovation is the methodological approach: first, we apply a hierarchical cluster analysis to identify the groups of instruments whose adoption is correlated; second, we use multivariate probit models to analyze the influence of different factors on the simultaneous adoption of the instruments included in each cluster. Explanatory variables capture farmers’ socio-demographic features, perception of risks, risk aversion and subjective perception of past risk experience; farms’ technical-economic characteristics; and perception of local-level climate change. The results show that there are significant differences in the variables influencing the adoption of the risk management instruments. The findings provide useful information to support the decision-making process for three main stakeholders: farmers (optimal choice over the joint use of instruments), providers of agricultural risk management instruments (e.g., the design of new combinations of risk management instruments better targeted to distinct profiles of farmers), and policymakers (policy strategies aiming to promote better risk management within the agricultural sector).

There are calls for better empirical models to inform climate change adaptation in smallholder agriculture. Hitherto adaptation studies have failed to comprehensively integrate non-cognitive behavioural factors (e.g. psychological capital), and there is also no common framework for measuring non-cognitive abilities of smallholder farmers. Hence, this study is the first attempt to assess how psychological capital affects climate change adaptation amongst smallholder farmers. The study estimated the multivariate probit regression model using data collected from 328 smallholder farmers in KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa. The results show an association between some psychological capital indicators and smallholder adaptation decisions. Social networks, having multiple farming objectives, access to credit and the type of farmer (irrigators vs. non-irrigators) were also significant in determining smallholders’ adaptation decisions. In conclusion, the study recommends the need for practical ways for enhancing smallholders’ endowment with key non-cognitive abilities. There is also a need for researchers to develop a comprehensive framework for assessing non-cognitive factors critical for climate change adaptation. This will improve the use of positive psychology theories to advance the literature on climate change adaptation. Support should also be provided to communities facing higher risks of climate change adaptation. More focus should also be given to improve smallholder farmers’ ability to adapt, including access to affordable credit. The role of social networks in information sharing remains critical, and hence their promotion should be prioritised. The findings on multiple objectives in farming were unique to climate change adaptation research, and hence the indicator should be considered in future similar studies.

There are calls for better empirical models to inform climate change adaptation in smallholder agriculture. Hitherto adaptation studies have failed to comprehensively integrate non-cognitive behavioural factors (e.g. psychological capital), and there is also no common framework for measuring non-cognitive abilities of smallholder farmers. Hence, this study is the first attempt to assess how psychological capital affects climate change adaptation amongst smallholder farmers. The study estimated the multivariate probit regression model using data collected from 328 smallholder farmers in KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa. The results show an association between some psychological capital indicators and smallholder adaptation decisions. Social networks, having multiple farming objectives, access to credit and the type of farmer (irrigators vs. non-irrigators) were also significant in determining smallholders’ adaptation decisions. In conclusion, the study recommends the need for practical ways for enhancing smallholders’ endowment with key non-cognitive abilities. There is also a need for researchers to develop a comprehensive framework for assessing non-cognitive factors critical for climate change adaptation. This will improve the use of positive psychology theories to advance the literature on climate change adaptation. Support should also be provided to communities facing higher risks of climate change adaptation. More focus should also be given to improve smallholder farmers’ ability to adapt, including access to affordable credit. The role of social networks in information sharing remains critical, and hence their promotion should be prioritised. The findings on multiple objectives in farming were unique to climate change adaptation research, and hence the indicator should be considered in future similar studies.

Climate change poses significant challenges to agriculture, with serious impacts on smallholder farmers’ food security and livelihoods. Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is being promoted to facilitate climate change adaptation and mitigation. While there is evidence that CSA supports smallholders’ adaption to climate change, the rate of CSA adoption remains low, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Previous studies have explained the low adoption based on generic factors such as farm, farmer, institutional and location characteristics, yet little is known about the role of farmers’ cognitive traits. This study investigates the influence of farmer entrepreneurial orientation, a cognitive trait reflecting a farmer's innovativeness, proactiveness and propensity to take risks. We use data from smallholder potato farmers in Kenya and estimate a set of multivariate probit models to analyse the adoption decisions. Results show that risk-taking positively influences the adoption of irrigation, changing cultivation calendar, use of certified seed, crop rotation and soil testing. Proactiveness is positively related to the use of irrigation, changing the cultivation calendar and use of certified seed, while it is negatively related to intercropping. Contrary to our hypothesis that innovative farmers are more likely to adopt CSA practices, we find a negative relation between innovativeness and the use of certified seed. After categorizing CSA practices based on the main resources required, we find that risk-taking is positively associated with the adoption of practices that require high intensity of skilled labour and financial resources. Innovativeness is negatively associated with practices that require high intensity of financial resources. Lastly, we find proactiveness to be positively associated with the adoption of finance-intensive practices but negatively associated with unskilled-labour-intensive practices. These findings imply, first, that development practitioners shou

This dissertation focuses on bringing to light several innovations to models typically used by Bayesian econometricians. In the world of statistics, one can take either the Classical Neyman-Pearson Frequentist approach, or the subjectivist view advocated, first by the Reverend Thomas Bayes and formalized more recently, most notably by De Finetti. The methods are of particular interest to economists, however, the techniques are applicable to any discipline relying on statistics. Additionally there is substantial attention given to estimating the model evidence for each of these novel models, so that competing models can be compared and contrasted. A strength of the Bayesian paradigm is the ease with which one can compare models, even those that are non-nested. The applications used in this dissertation make use of this fact. The first chapter provides improvement to the traditional methods of estimating multilevel dynamic factor models (MLDFMs). MLDFMs have been used in economics as a popular way of estimating global, regional, and country business cycles. The use of factors, especially in macroeconomics, is a useful way to estimate correlation between multiple data series. Using them to estimate multiple simultaneous factors is an extension given by Kose (2003), but which I extend in this chapter. In addition, I discuss how useful a global factor is to the model when observables are included. The findings from this research are helpful to the synchronization or decoupling debate extant in the LDV (Limited Dependent Variable) literature. Decoupling and convergence has been debated in the macroeconomic literature since at different times and by different researchers the amount of explanatory power arising from a global factor has differed in a significant manner. Because of the flexibility of the Bayesian approach I am also able to derive a method of testing for breakpoints in the sample period using the Bayes factors. The second chapter uses the methods from the seco

This dissertation focuses on bringing to light several innovations to models typically used by Bayesian econometricians. In the world of statistics, one can take either the Classical Neyman-Pearson Frequentist approach, or the subjectivist view advocated, first by the Reverend Thomas Bayes and formalized more recently, most notably by De Finetti. The methods are of particular interest to economists, however, the techniques are applicable to any discipline relying on statistics. Additionally there is substantial attention given to estimating the model evidence for each of these novel models, so that competing models can be compared and contrasted. A strength of the Bayesian paradigm is the ease with which one can compare models, even those that are non-nested. The applications used in this dissertation make use of this fact. The first chapter provides improvement to the traditional methods of estimating multilevel dynamic factor models (MLDFMs). MLDFMs have been used in economics as a popular way of estimating global, regional, and country business cycles. The use of factors, especially in macroeconomics, is a useful way to estimate correlation between multiple data series. Using them to estimate multiple simultaneous factors is an extension given by Kose (2003), but which I extend in this chapter. In addition, I discuss how useful a global factor is to the model when observables are included. The findings from this research are helpful to the synchronization or decoupling debate extant in the LDV (Limited Dependent Variable) literature. Decoupling and convergence has been debated in the macroeconomic literature since at different times and by different researchers the amount of explanatory power arising from a global factor has differed in a significant manner. Because of the flexibility of the Bayesian approach I am also able to derive a method of testing for breakpoints in the sample period using the Bayes factors. The second chapter uses the methods from the seco

PR, IFPRI3; ISI; CRP2; Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Collaborative Research on Assets and Market Access; A Ensuring Sustainable food production; D Transforming Agriculture, EPTD; PIM, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)

Non-PR, IFPRI1; CRP2; A Ensuring Sustainable food production; A.3 Science, Technology, and innovation Policy, EPTD; PIM, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), Land degradation and soil erosion have emerged as serious challenges to smallholder farmers throughout southern Africa. To combat these challenges, conservation agriculture (CA) is widely promoted as a sustainable package of agricultural practices. Despite the many potential benefits of CA, however, adoption remains low. Yet relatively little is known about the decision-making process in choosing to adopt CA. This article attempts to fill this important knowledge gap by studying CA adoption in southern Malawi. Unlike what is implicitly assumed when these packages of practices are introduced, farmers view adoption as a series of independent decisions rather than a single decision. Yet the adoption decisions are not wholly independent. We find strong evidence of interrelated decisions, particularly among mulching crop residues and practicing zero tillage, suggesting that mulching residues and intercropping or rotating with legumes introduces a multiplier effect on the adoption of zero tillage.

Electronic voting could increase citizens' electoral participation and trust in countries characterized by fragile democratic institutions and public discredit of the political system such as those in Latin America. This paper examines attitudes towards e-voting among participants in a large scale pilot project conducted in Colombia in 2007, focusing on the perceived reliability and usability of different automated voting technologies. Using a multivariate probit model, we determine the effect of socio-demographic, geographic and technical factors on users' evaluations of electronic voting vis a vis the traditional paper ballot system. Our results show that users find e-voting not only easier than the current voting system, but also substantially more reliable. While voters' opinions on usability are driven by technical issues, their trust in the new technologies is strongly affected by individual characteristics. We conclude that e-voting entails a promising opportunity to empower voters and increase confidence in elections in Colombia.

The growing demand for electricity in New Zealand has led to the construction of new hydro-dams or power stations that have had environmental, social and cultural effects. These effects may drive increases in electricity prices, as such prices reflect the cost of running existing power stations as well as building new ones. This study uses Canterbury and Central Otago as case studies because both regions face similar issues in building new hydro-dams and ever-increasing electricity prices that will eventually prompt households to buy power at higher prices. One way for households to respond to these price changes is to generate their own electricity through microgeneration technologies (MGT). The objective of this study is to investigate public perception and preferences regarding MGT and to analyze the factors that influence people's decision to adopt such new technologies in New Zealand. The study uses a multivariate probit approach to examine households' willingness to adopt any one MGT system or a combination of the MGT systems. Our findings provide valuable information for policy makers and marketers who wish to promote effective microgeneration technologies.

This study explores the relationships between adoption and consideration of three travel-related strategy bundles (travel maintaining/increasing, travel reducing, and major location/lifestyle change), linking them to a variety of explanatory variables. The data for this study are the responses to a fourteen-page survey returned by nearly 1,300 commuting workers living in three distinct San Francisco Bay area neighborhoods in May 1998. We first identified patterns of adoption and consideration among the bundles, using pairwise correlation tests. The test results indicate that those who have adopted coping strategies continue to seek for improvements across the spectrum of generalized cost, but perhaps most often repeating the consideration of a previously-adopted bundle. Furthermore, we developed a multivariate probit model for individuals' simultaneous consideration of the three bundles. It is found that in addition to the previous adoption of the bundles, qualitative and quantitative Mobility-related variables, Travel Attitudes, Personality, Lifestyle, Travel Liking, and Sociodemographics significantly affect individual consideration of the strategy bundles. Overall, the results of this study give policy makers and planners insight into understanding the dynamic nature of individuals' responses to travel-related strategies, as well as differences between the responses to congestion that are assumed by policy makers and those that are actually adopted by individuals.

This study explores the relationships between adoption and consideration of three travel-related strategy bundles (travel maintaining/increasing, travel reducing, and major location/lifestyle change), linking them to a variety of explanatory variables. The data for this study are the responses to a fourteen-page survey returned by nearly 1,300 commuting workers living in three distinct San Francisco Bay area neighborhoods in May 1998. We first identified patterns of adoption and consideration among the bundles, using pairwise correlation tests. The test results indicate that those who have adopted coping strategies continue to seek for improvements across the spectrum of generalized cost, but perhaps most often repeating the consideration of a previously-adopted bundle. Furthermore, we developed a multivariate probit model for individuals' simultaneous consideration of the three bundles. It is found that in addition to the previous adoption of the bundles, qualitative and quantitative Mobility-related variables, Travel Attitudes, Personality, Lifestyle, Travel Liking, and Sociodemographics significantly affect individual consideration of the strategy bundles. Overall, the results of this study give policy makers and planners insight into understanding the dynamic nature of individuals' responses to travel-related strategies, as well as differences between the responses to congestion that are assumed by policy makers and those that are actually adopted by individuals.

The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between firm characteristics and its environment, motivations for cooperating and partner selection. Particularly we analyze the heterogeneity of four types of partner: competitors, clients, suppliers (universities and technological centers). The estimation has been run with longitudinal data of the «Encuesta sobre Estrategias Empresariales» (1997-2002). Our results point out vertical cooperation as the preferred one when the firm is pursuing commercials goals, as well as the completion of innovation process. Public funding and technological capabilities are important motivations for selecting universities and technological centres. Competitors are a significant alternative when the firm is looking for partner to achieve funding for research projects, El objetivo de este trabajo consiste en explorar las relaciones entre las características empresariales y de su entorno, las motivaciones para cooperar y la elección del socio tecnológico. Concretamente, se analiza la heterogeneidad de cuatro tipo de socios: competidores, clientes (proveedores, universidades y centros tecnológicos). La estimación se ha llevado a cabo a partir de datos longitudinales de la Encuesta sobre Estrategias Empresariales (1997-2002). Los resultados apuntan a la cooperación vertical como la preferida cuando la empresa persigue objetivos comerciales, así como la culminación del proceso innovador. La financiación pública y la potenciación de las capacidades tecnológicas son motivaciones muy relevantes para la elección de universidades y centros tecnológicos. Los competidores son una alternativa muy destacable cuando las empresas buscan socios con los que conseguir financiación para los proyectos de investigación

The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between firm characteristics and its environment, motivations for cooperating and partner selection. Particularly we analyze the heterogeneity of four types of partner: competitors, clients, suppliers (universities and technological centers). The estimation has been run with longitudinal data of the «Encuesta sobre Estrategias Empresariales» (1997-2002). Our results point out vertical cooperation as the preferred one when the firm is pursuing commercials goals, as well as the completion of innovation process. Public funding and technological capabilities are important motivations for selecting universities and technological centres. Competitors are a significant alternative when the firm is looking for partner to achieve funding for research projects, El objetivo de este trabajo consiste en explorar las relaciones entre las características empresariales y de su entorno, las motivaciones para cooperar y la elección del socio tecnológico. Concretamente, se analiza la heterogeneidad de cuatro tipo de socios: competidores, clientes (proveedores, universidades y centros tecnológicos). La estimación se ha llevado a cabo a partir de datos longitudinales de la Encuesta sobre Estrategias Empresariales (1997-2002). Los resultados apuntan a la cooperación vertical como la preferida cuando la empresa persigue objetivos comerciales, así como la culminación del proceso innovador. La financiación pública y la potenciación de las capacidades tecnológicas son motivaciones muy relevantes para la elección de universidades y centros tecnológicos. Los competidores son una alternativa muy destacable cuando las empresas buscan socios con los que conseguir financiación para los proyectos de investigación

We analyse patterns of consent and consent bias in the context of a large general household survey, the ‘Improving survey measurement of income and employment’ survey, also addressing issues that arise when there are multiple consent questions. A multivariate probit regression model for four binary outcomes with two incidental truncations is used. We show that there are biases in consent to data linkage with benefit and tax credit administrative records that are held by the Department for Work and Pensions, and with wage and employment data held by employers. There are also biases in respondents’ willingness and ability to supply their national insurance number. The biases differ according to the question that is considered. We also show that modelling questions on consent independently rather than jointly may lead to misleading inferences about consent bias. A positive correlation between unobservable individual factors affecting consent to Department for Work and Pensions record linkage and consent to employer record linkage is suggestive of a latent individual consent propensity.

This study focuses on the persistence of poverty in Sweden. The purpose is to distinguish between two different reasons why poverty could persist on an individual level. By using a sample of identical twins, this study takes advantage of the similarity within pairs of twins to separate family specific heterogeneity from true state dependence, where the experience of poverty leads to a higher risk of future poverty. The results, based on a four variate probit model, show the importance of true state dependence in poverty. When using the information on whether an individual received social assistance as a measure of poverty, family specific heterogeneity explains between 24 and 31 percent of the poverty persistence in the sample.

The objective of this research is to understand the demand for information technology among trucking companies. A multivariate discrete choice model is estimated on data from a large-scale survey of the trucking industry in California. This model is designed to identify the influences of each of twenty operational characteristics on the propensity to adopt each of seven different information technologies, while simultaneously allowing the seven error terms to be freely correlated. Results showed that the distinction between for-hire and private fleets is paramount, as is size of the fleet and the provision of intermodal maritime and air services.

The objective of this research is to understand the demand for information technology among trucking companies. A multivariate discrete choice model is estimated on data from a large-scale survey of the trucking industry in California. This model is designed to identify the influences of each of twenty operational characteristics on the propensity to adopt each of seven different information technologies, while simultaneously allowing the seven error terms to be freely correlated. Results showed that the distinction between for-hire and private fleets is paramount, as is size of the fleet and the provision of intermodal maritime and air services.