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This paper investigates the dynamic causal relationship between Sino-U.S. political conflict and bilateral trade using a time-varying (bootstrap) Granger full-sample causality test and sub-sample rolling window estimation. The result indicates that Sino-U.S. political conflict and bilateral trade may interact in various ways. Bilateral trade has both positive and negative effects on political conflict in several sub-phases, and in turn, political conflict has the same impacts on bilateral trade. In general, the relationship between Sino-U.S. political conflict and bilateral trade is not always consistent with the model of Polachek, which states bilateral trade has significantly reduced political conflict. In the face of a severe economic situation, China and the U.S. government should strengthen trade cooperation and seek common ground of economic interests in order to expand the improvement of political relations.

This article explores the necessity to store gold in chaotic eras from the perspective of geopolitical risk (G.P.R.). We examine the casual relationship between G.P.R. and gold price (G.P.) by applying the full- and sub-sample rolling-window bootstrap causality test. The positive effect from G.P.R. to G.P. reveals that gold should be stored in chaotic eras, due to its rising price during high risks of geopolitics. However, the negative effect does not confirm this view, G.P. may decrease during certain high G.P.R. periods, which are not necessary to store gold. G.P. may also increase during periods of low G.P.R., in order to hedge risks of economic crises, rather than geopolitical events. These results are inconsistent with the capital asset pricing model, which highlights a positive effect from G.P.R. to G.P. In turn, the positive influence of G.P. on G.P.R. points out that the gold market can be an effective predictor of the risks of geopolitics. In the context of an unstable pattern of global politics, investors and governments can benefit from the gold value in the chaotic eras to avoid losses and optimize investment. In turn, they can accurately predict G.P.R. based on G.P., in order to prevent G.P.R.s.

This article explores the necessity to store gold in chaotic eras from the perspective of geopolitical risk (G.P.R.). We examine the casual relationship between G.P.R. and gold price (G.P.) by applying the full- and sub-sample rolling-window bootstrap causality test. The positive effect from G.P.R. to G.P. reveals that gold should be stored in chaotic eras, due to its rising price during high risks of geopolitics. However, the negative effect does not confirm this view, G.P. may decrease during certain high G.P.R. periods, which are not necessary to store gold. G.P. may also increase during periods of low G.P.R., in order to hedge risks of economic crises, rather than geopolitical events. These results are inconsistent with the capital asset pricing model, which highlights a positive effect from G.P.R. to G.P. In turn, the positive influence of G.P. on G.P.R. points out that the gold market can be an effective predictor of the risks of geopolitics. In the context of an unstable pattern of global politics, investors and governments can benefit from the gold value in the chaotic eras to avoid losses and optimize investment. In turn, they can accurately predict G.P.R. based on G.P., in order to prevent G.P.R.s.

This study reviews the threshold effect of house prices (HPs) on marriage (MR) in China by utilizing a panel threshold regression. The findings indicate that HPs have a positive impact on MR when the price is below the threshold value. Homeownership is an extremely important factor in MR in China, and MR without housing is considered incomplete. However, HPs have a negative effect on MR when the price is higher than the threshold value. Unemployment and female education have a negative effect on MR, while GDP per capita has a positive effect. These results are supported by the duration model, which shows that as HPs increase, the rate of MR decreases. The study makes a contribution on the asymmetric impact of high HPs on MR in China in the two regimes. The paper offers insight into the economic outlook on HPs and MR driven by societal and institutional changes, such as privatization and state ownership of enterprises, that have changed marriage behavior. Increasing HPs slow MR and may have a more serious impact on China than on other countries. The government should balance housing supply and demand by enhancing antimonopoly supervision in the private market. The government should establish policy measures to meet housing demand and create incentives to wed, which can relieve competition in marriage markets. Diversified investment, in turn, can control HPs.

This paper investigates the dynamic causal relationship between Sino-U.S. political conflict and bilateral trade using a time-varying (bootstrap) Granger full-sample causality test and sub-sample rolling window estimation. The result indicates that Sino-U.S. political conflict and bilateral trade may interact in various ways. Bilateral trade has both positive and negative effects on political conflict in several sub-phases, and in turn, political conflict has the same impacts on bilateral trade. In general, the relationship between Sino-U.S. political conflict and bilateral trade is not always consistent with the model of Polachek, which states bilateral trade has significantly reduced political conflict. In the face of a severe economic situation, China and the U.S. government should strengthen trade cooperation and seek common ground of economic interests in order to expand the improvement of political relations.

The objective of this study is to provide evidence for the existence of threshold effects in trade openness, which affects the female labour force participation rate (FLFPR) in Asian countries. The authors employ the proportion of export, import and total trade volume to gross domestic product to denote export and import dependency and trade openness, respectively. The panel threshold regression results indicate that there exists an optimal value in the correlation between trade openness and FLFPR below which an increase in trade openness will enhance the FLFPR; an adverse relationship exists when trade openness exceeds the threshold value. This relationship is attributed to the trade-off between the cost reduction effect and the technology channel. Furthermore, the authors further categorise trade openness into export and import dependency. The findings reveal that export dependency also has a single threshold effect on FLFPR, while import dependency exerts a negative effect on FLFPR regardless of threshold effect. Therefore, the government could promote female participation in the labour force by regulating the export policy.

The objective of this study is to provide evidence for the existence of threshold effects in trade openness, which affects the female labour force participation rate (FLFPR) in Asian countries. The authors employ the proportion of export, import and total trade volume to gross domestic product to denote export and import dependency and trade openness, respectively. The panel threshold regression results indicate that there exists an optimal value in the correlation between trade openness and FLFPR below which an increase in trade openness will enhance the FLFPR; an adverse relationship exists when trade openness exceeds the threshold value. This relationship is attributed to the trade-off between the cost reduction effect and the technology channel. Furthermore, the authors further categorise trade openness into export and import dependency. The findings reveal that export dependency also has a single threshold effect on FLFPR, while import dependency exerts a negative effect on FLFPR regardless of threshold effect. Therefore, the government could promote female participation in the labour force by regulating the export policy.