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In this study, we have explored the viability of using machine learning models to predict the outcomes of Premier League football matches. Especially we have evaluated the effectiveness with the Kelly Criterion as a betting strategy. We processed a comprehensive dataset to develop six distinct predictive models, each designed to forecast the probability of three possible match outcomes: a home win, a draw, or an away win. These models included various advanced machine learning techniques, and their performance was enhanced through hyperparameter tuning employing both grid search and randomized search methods. Our methodology involved simulating an entire Premier League season, applying the Kelly Criterion to manage and allocate bets based on the probabilistic outputs of our models. The objective was to evaluate the potential returns on investment from each model. Among the models tested, the neural network emerged as the most successful, yielding a return of 35.48 times the initial bankroll. Other models demonstrated varied levels of success, illustrating the diverse potential of machine learning applications in sports betting. The results of our simulations suggest that while machine learning can indeed be a powerful tool in sports betting, its efficiency depends on several factors. The quality of the input data and the level of sophistication of feature engineering might influence model performance. Our study highlights that further enhancements, such as incorporating more information and/or variables in our data and exploring alternative approaches to feature engineering, could improve predictive accuracy. Additionally, domain knowledge remains a critical component, suggesting that a hybrid approach combining data-driven techniques with expert insight may yield the most robust long-term betting strategies. In conclusion, while our findings are promising, indicating that the application of machine learning and the Kelly Criterion can be profitable, they also under

The aim of this study was to explore how match-related statistics contribute to winning association football matches. This is relevant for stakeholders in the football industry to facilitate the understanding of what factors contribute to winning matches and can thus be of use when formulating match tactics. A model was constructed through the use of binary logistic regression, where winning/not winning was used as the response variable and standardized match-related statistics were used as predictor variables. Using the acquired coefficients, it was concluded that, among other variables, the home advantage and the ability of a team to finish on target has a strong correlation with winninggames. Further, the study explores the impact of a team’s ability to win football games on the financial landscape of the modern football world. The results show that some of the examined statistics are well correlated to winning a match, but that the tactical useability of these insights is low., Syftet med denna studie var att utforska hur matchrelaterad statistik bidrar till att vinna fotbollsmatcher. Detta är relevant för aktörer inom fotbollsbranchen för att underlätta försåelsen av vilka matchrelaterade faktorer som bidrar till vinst och kan således användas för att forma matchtaktik. En modell konstruerades genom binär logistisk regression, där att vinna/att inte vinna användes som responsvariabel och standardiserad matchrelaterad statistik användes som prediktorvariabel. Genom att använda koefficienterna tillhörande modellen,kan man fastslå att bland annat hemmalagsfördel samt ett lags förmåga att träffa mål korrelerar starkt med att vinna matcher. Dessutom utforskar studien påverkan av ett lags förmåga att vinna fotbollsmatcher på det finansiella landskapet tillhörande den moderna fotbollen. Resultaten visar att vissa av de studerade variablerna korrelerar starkt med att vinna fotbollsmatcher, men attmöjligheterna att använda dessa insikter till att forma taktik är begränsade.

This thesis provides insights into the creation of a model for predicting odds in the Premier League. It illustrates how the ELO system and historical odds, in combination with Monte Carlo simulations, can be implemented through logistic regression to predict odds in an unbiased way. The findings are that the model performs generally well, but significantly worse at the beginning and end of the Premier League seasons. For further improvements, it is most likely necessary to factor in variables not available in the current model. Such factors could for example be incentives, injuries, or changes in the squad, all not being accounted for by the model in this case., Detta examensarbete ger insikter om skapandet av en modell för att förutsäga oddsen i Premier League. Den visar hur ELO-systemet och historiska odds, i kombination med Monte Carlo-simuleringar, kan implementeras genom logistisk regression för att förutsäga oddsen på ett opartiskt sätt. Resultaten visar att modellen generellt sett fungerar bra, men betydligt sämre i början och slutet av Premier League-säsongerna. För ytterligare förbättringar är det troligtvis nödvändigt att ta hänsyn till variabler som inte är tillgängliga i den nuvarande modellen. Sådana faktorer kan till exempel vara incitament, skador eller förändringar i truppen, som alla inte tas hänsyn till i modellen i detta fall.

In the 21st century, the football community has seen a considerable increase in club owners with links to authoritarian regimes. These owners have been scrutinised for using clubs, in order to sportswash the image of their regimes. Limited research has been made on the incentives of these owners and how they are perceived by the media. This thesis, however, intends to create an understanding of how supporters of these clubs perceive their owners. No considerable research has been conducted with this angle, which is important in order to comprehend the growing issue of sportswashing generally. As a method of research, four football supporters have been interviewed semi-structurally, after which three identity-based concepts have been used to analyse the answers deductively. The results obtained show that no matter how morally conflicted about their team’s owner a football supporter is, the strong connections between their identity and their supportership, may seriously hinder the ability to question a sportswashing-practising owner, or renounce their supportership for the club. This shows how deep identity-based relationships can be used by an actor to reach political goals. While also shedding a light on the complex situation supporters may find themselves in, regarding sportswashing.

Through an idea analysis, arguments for and against two different policy changes regulating foreign labor in the Premier League will be dissected in order to reveal the nationalist and liberal qualities within them. Arguments made by the Remain and Leave-campaigns during the 2016 Brexit debate, prior to the referendum are also reviewed. The analysis of the empirical material revealed that the two debates, concerning two completely different spheres of society, are almost identical in their ideological features and rhetoric emphasis. However, an analytical discussion utilizing sociological media theory could neither prove nor disprove a causal relationship between the exposure to political arguments made in the foreign player debate and the public’s susceptibility to nationalist arguments during the 2016 Brexit debate, leaving room for future studies.

There is a growing research interest in the effects of social distancingmeasures introduced to prevent the spread of COVID-19 on social inter-action, interpersonal relationships, and personal wellbeing. In the soccerarena, too, players, referees, managers, and fans are subject to socialdistancing measures when engaging in joint activities in times of thepandemic. This paper examines to what extent agents on the soccerpitch have adapted joint communicative acts such as goal celebrationsand surrounding the referee as part of social distancing measures. It doesso by focusing particularly on interactions between player-player (goalcelebrations) and player-referee (issuing of yellow/red cards) in broad-casted Premier League games pre- and post-lockdown during the 2019/20season by examining and comparing two datasets: games in the lastround before the three-month lockdown break (round 29, 10 games, 7–9 March 2020) and the games in the first round after the restart of season2019/20 with the implemented social distancing rules as prescribed by thePremier League’s Season 2019/20Restart Guide (round 30, 10 games, 19–22 June 2020). Based on an exploratory, qualitative multimodal analysis ofa total of 43 goal celebrations and the issuing of 66 yellow cards and onered card in the two datasets, we highlight varying realizations of similarjoint communicative acts, thereby demonstrating how agents on thepitch adapt their interaction to social distancing rules. The results showplayers’ occasional hesitation to gather closely with other players tocelebrate a goal and their deviation to more common practices of enga-ging with others during times of COVID-19, for example fist bumps.Adaptation of interaction can also be observed with regard to player-referee interactions following a booking, most notably concerning sur-rounding the referee in contested decisions: While players still movetowards the referee seemingly crowding the referee, there is, in somescenes, a visible restraint by p

The premise of this report is to delve into sports betting and whether favourable opportunities can be found, more specifically focusing on over and under odds for number of goals scored in football games of the Premier League. Using historical data from football matches several models are developed, the characteristics of goals warranting the use of probability based Poisson and Negative Binomial models, as well as Bayesian Poisson regression for goal predictions. Once these models were developed odds was found and compared to bookmakers, the results indicated that all models, to varying degrees, find favourable opportunities and profitable betting strategies can be identified. This suggests that bookmakers do not always price betting products according to their true probabilities likely due to book balancing and informational asymmetries. Furthermore it indicates that there is a presence of inefficiencies in the sports betting market., Den här rapporten kommer djupdyka i betting och huruvida gynnsamma möjligheter kan hittas. Mer specifikt kommer ett fokus ligga på över/under odds för antalet mål i fotbollsmatcher i engelska Premier League. Genom att använda historisk data från fotbollsmatcher utvecklas flera olika statistiska modeller för att förutspå antalet mål i fotbollsmatcher. Skattning av Poisson och Negativ Binomial fördelningar samt utvecklandet av en Bayesiansk Poisson regressionsmodell motiveras av egenskaperna hos antalet mål i fotbollsmatcher. Med dessa modeller, beräknas odds för flera framtida matcher inom Premier League och dessa jämfördes med odds som ges av bettingbolag. Resultaten indikerar att alla modeller kan, i olika stor utsträckning, hitta gynnsamma möjligheter och lönsamma betting strategier kan identifieras. Detta tyder på att bettingbolag inte alltid sätter sina odds enbart baserat på den faktiska sannolikheten, vilket troligtvis beror på att bolagen balanserar sina böcker samt informationsasymmetrier. Dessutom indikerar resultatet på att det finns faktorer på bettingmarknaden som gör marknaden ineffektiv.

Introduction: In recent years, social media communication has significantly affected the way organizations are sharing information. Social media platforms are shown to be one of the most important forms of communication also for the intent of Corporate Social Responsibility. The purpose of this study was to find out how often CSR is shared across Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, and TikTok and if differences exist between those platforms in frequency, choice of topic, and engagement of fans. Furthermore, the influence of being a winning, midfield, and losing team, and high and low revenue was investigated. Methods: A quantitative content analysis study was chosen as the study design. On the four mentioned social media platforms data was manually collected for Premier League clubs and coded into topics of CSR. The engagement of fans was collected with likes, comments, and shares on the relevant platforms. Results: 6879 total posts were investigated including 272 posts related to CSR content. The highest ratio for CSR posts showed Facebook (5,0%), followed by Twitter (3,7%), then Instagram (3,4%), and at last TikTok (0,8%). However, the highest number of posts was shared by Twitter, followed by Facebook, Instagram, and TikTok. The topics shared the most on Twitter and Facebook are Public Policy, Safety, and Diversity. On Instagram as well Public Policy, Diversity but also Religion posts were shared the most. TikTok showed only one post related to the topic of Religion. The engagement of fans showed that Twitter has the highest engagement compared to a non-CSR-related post, closely followed by Instagram. An ANOVA analysis showed that winning teams and losing teams share significantly more CSR content than midfield teams. It was also discovered that teams with high revenue post more CSR than teams with low revenue. Discussion/Conclusion: New and major findings of this study suggest that teams in the European market have different factors that can influence the teams sharin

Monitoring fatigue and performance is important for adjusting training loads in soccer. Therefore, knowing the status of the player when applying a training stimulus is key to optimizing the players’ development. This study aims to evaluate the interaction between internal and external load, during training and matches, in an elite youth soccer team. Methods: seventeen youth players of the highest Spanish category were monitored with GPS devices during training and matches, as well as recording their nocturnal heart rate variability (HRV). We employed a linear mixed model to assess the physical demands between training and matches, and to compare the HRV variables. Results: a higher total distance (+2993.35–5746.56 m; ES = 1.4), distance at high intensity (+641.24–1907 m; ES = 1.5), sprint distance (+350.46–795.05 m; ES = 2.1), number of sprints (+18.38–41.58; ES = 1.9), and number of repeated sprints (+5.91–15.30; ES = 1.7) (all p < 0.001), but not in the number of accelerations, were reported during the matches when compared to the training sessions during the 11 weeks. The analysis of the HRV variables showed no significant differences between the accumulated values during a training week, providing similar results pre-match or post-match (p > 0.05). The LF/HFRATIO showed a negative influence on the total distance ran, distance at high intensity, distance in sprint, number of sprints, and repeated sprint. RRMEAN was positively related to the sprint number. Conclusion: the results of the present study suggest that nocturnal HRV variables are not different between pre-match and post-match. Furthermore, it suggests that LF/HFRATIO and RRMEAN during pre-match can determine the external load that the player will be able to complete during the match

Multi-club ownership [MCO] is a concept within the football industry which entails that an owner holds significant stakes in multiple teams. This ownership strategy is not new, however, what are the driving forces of this type of ownership structure and what are the outcomes? The purpose of this study was to explore potential drivers of MCO, to irradiate the concept and determine whether traditional business administration theories can be applied to explain its existence. The main theoretical framework is based upon the shareholder theory and resource-based view of the firm with supplementary reasoning collected from other relevant theories. The study encompasses five seasons and consisted of the teams competing in the top two divisions in the English Football League system. The quantitative study covered six hypotheses and deployed both Two sample t-tests and regression models which sought to measure international player trading activity, sporting performance and financial performance. The results of the study show that multi-club portfolio members [MCPMs] tend to trade a larger share of players internationally compared to Non-MCPMs. However, the other models yielded no significant results in regard to MCPMs, although, value creation through the strategy cannot be disregarded as it may be present through other channels. The wider footballing industry has been studied extensively in previous literature. However, this study is focused on MCO, a topic that lacks a previous body of research. By filling this research gap the authors hope to illuminate the concept and increase transparency for both decision makers (owners of clubs) and supporters of clubs. In addition, a survey which is not empirically tested was conducted in order to help guide the proceedings of the research.

In the United Kingdom, it is estimated that the sports industry is worth £20 billion, with football accounting for 43% of this figure. Football clubs use a branding strategy to connect with the fans and to differentiate the club from its competitors. One of these components is the management of the club, specifically the manager. The manager is the human face of the football club brand and is the target of the fan’s joy or frustration with the performance of the team. Branding is not limited to products and services, with people, specifically celebrities and CEOs having been the focus of research to determine how they impact the brand (or company) with which they are associated. However, the branding of football managers, either personally or as the representative of the football brand, has not been examined. This is surprising due to their contribution to the football (club) brand. Using an integrated theoretical perspective based on personal branding, corporate and CEO branding, this paper seeks to contribute the understanding of how an English Premier League (EPL) football manager (Arsène Wenger) develops his brand identity. The study makes use of an exploratory research design, specifically a qualitative case study method. The league selected as the EPL, specifically a U.S.-owned club and from these clubs, Arsenal, and specifically Arsène Wenger was selected. Media articles were collected from the leading newspapers sites and from leading press agencies and sports writers in the United Kingdom with the initial search done using the manager’s name. A total of 1364 newspaper reports were analysed using NVivo from the perspective of the brand owner, that is, Arsène Wenger. The analysis suggests there are three main components used to develop the football manager’s brand identity. First, the performance that includes player management, the on-pitch tactics and their managerial philosophy necessary to deliver positive results. The second component is the person (mana

The main objective of the work was to analyze the performance carried out by competitive football teams in their respective regular leagues during the 2015-16 season. All matches played by Leicester F.C. as a representative of the Premier League (n = 38) were considered, while Barcelona F.C. was the team representing La Liga (n = 38). Intra and inter championship monitoring of these champion teams was carried out taking into account seven variables: team, location, quality, warnings, changes of players, goals, and final result. The data matrices were constructed and analyzed using variables temporal reference through the Theme data reduction technique (Magnusson, 2000). From the analysis of the specificity of soccer success in two of the best European championships, formulas that are difficult to detect through a superficial look were extracted. Paying attention to the records’ context of appearance justifies a vision braided through a temporality thread. This work’s findings can be used by sports managers in their long-term planning, while in the short and medium-term coaches can also take advantage of them. Optimizing high-level sports performance requires new analytical perspectives to understand how success arises in football., El objetivo prioritario del trabajo era analizar el rendimiento protagonizado por equipos competitivos de fútbol en sus campeonatos respectivos de liga regular durante la temporada 2015-16. Se incluyeron todos los partidos del Leicester F.C. representante de la premier league (n=38) mientras que el equipo representante de La Liga fue el Barcelona F.C. (n=38). Se acometió un seguimiento intra e inter campeonato de los equipos campeones atendiendo a cinco variables: equipo, localización, calidad, amonestaciones, cambios de jugadores, goles y resultado final. Las matrices de datos fueron construidas y analizadas mediante el empleo de la referencia temporal de las variables, empleando para ello la técnica de reducción de datos Theme (Magnusson, 2000). Del análisis de especificidad del éxito futbolístico en dos de los mejores campeonatos del panorama europeo se extrajeron fórmulas difícilmente detectables mediante una mirada superficial. Atender al contexto de aparición de los registros justifica una visión trenzada mediante un hilo de temporalidad. Los hallazgos pueden ser aprovechados a largo plazo por directores deportivos en sus planificaciones, mientras que a corto y medio plazo también los entrenadores pueden verse ayudados. Optimizar el rendimiento deportivo de alto nivel precisa de nuevas perspectivas de análisis mediante las que conocer a qué responde el éxito en fútbol.

This article examines digital engagement of sports fans in digital social networks as an expression of their social identity. The observation is of Facebook fan pages of the Premier league teams, the professional English football league. Analysis of these fan pages showed that the number of fans varies significantly from one team to another. Such differences may be associated with a team’s historical performance. Analysis of comments revealed significant differences in the magnitude, composition, and attitude of fans’ digital engagement, depending on whether the matches resulted in victories, ties or losses. This differentiated reaction can be associated with concepts of social identity theory, such as basking in reflected glory (BIRGing) and cutting off reflected failure (CORFing), which suggests that the degree to which fans connect with their teams depends on the team’s performance., Este artigo aborda o envolvimento digital de fãs de desporto em redes sociais online como modo de expressão da sua identidade social. A observação teve por base páginas de fãs de equipas da Premier League, a liga profissional de futebol inglesa, no Facebook. A análise a estas páginas mostrou que o número de fãs varia significativamente de uma equipa para a outra. Essa diferença poderá dever-se ao historial de cada equipa em termos de performance. A análise aos comentários revelou uma diferença significativa em termos de magnitude, composição e atitude do envolvimento digital, dependendo se o resultado do jogo se trata de uma vitória, um empate ou uma derrota. Esta reação diferenciada pode ser associada a conceitos da teoria da identidade social, tais como basking in reflected glory (BIRGing) e cutting off reflected failure (CORFing), o que sugere que o grau de comprometimento entre os fãs e as suas equipas depende da performance da equipa., El artículo examina el compromiso digital de los fanáticos deportivos en las redes sociales digitales, como expresión de su identidad social. El escenario de observación son las páginas de Facebook de los equipos de la Premier League, la liga profesional de futbol inglés. El análisis de las páginas de Facebook mostró que el número de seguidores varía considerablemente de un equipo a otro. Diferencia que potencialmente puede asociarse al desempeño deportivo de los equipos. Mientras que la revisión de publicaciones reveló diferencias significativas en la magnitud, composición y actitud del compromiso digital del público, dependiendo de si el resultado del partido es una victoria, un empate o una derrota. Esta reacción diferenciada se puede asociar a conceptos de la teoría de identidad social como basking in reflected glory (BIRGing) y cutting off reflected failure (CORFing), que surgieron para explicar el grado en el que los seguidores se asocian a sí mismos a sus equipos según el desempeño.

von Martin Bjelanovic, Universität Innsbruck, Diplomarbeit, 2017, (VLID)2278561

Uppsatsen ämnar att försöka förklara hur olika variabler angående matchbilden i en fotbollsmatch påverkar slutresultatet. Dessa variabler är uppdelade i prestationsvariabler och kvalitétsvariabler. Prestationsvariablerna är baserade på prestationsindikatorer inspirerat av Hughes och Bartlett (2002). Kvalitétsvariablerna förklarar hur bra de olika lagen är. Som verktyg för att uppnå syftet används olika klassificeringsmodeller utifrån både prestationsvariablerna och kvalitétsvariablerna. Först undersöktes vilka prestationsindikatorer som var viktigast. Den bästa modellen klassificerade cirka 60 % rätt och rensningar och skott på mål var de viktigaste prestationsvariablerna. Sedan undersöktes vilka prediktionsvariabler som var bäst. Den bästa modellen klassificerade rätt slutresultat cirka 88 % av matcherna. Utifrån vad författarna ansågs vara de viktigaste prediktionsvariablerna skapades en prediktionsmodell med färre variabler. Denna lyckades klassificera rätt cirka 86 % av matcherna. Prediktionsmodellen var konstruerad med spelarbetyg, odds på oavgjort och domare.

The aim of this study was to examine goal scoring in European football leagues and specifically which factors are associated with predicting Expected Goals (xG). This concept helps us to evaluate player, specifically strikers, in the number of goals they score season upon season. Therefore, this study examined the shots from the Premier League and Bundesliga games (380 & 306) from the 2012-2013 season. All of the shots were grouped into sections on the field of play and a theoretical goal value was applied to each area. The factors analysed were: distance of the shot taken from goal and the angle of the shot in relation to the goal. In calculating xG, it is suggested that the distance and angle of the shots matter. A combination of the two factors calculated xG better than each variable alone. Furthermore, this examination of xG has been able to identify mid-table teams scoring and conceding goals relatively accurately. Top league teams and lower league teams over and under achieved respectively. Managers and Coaches may find this method useful in identifying players who consistently score close to their expected total or even out-perform it.

Sedan 2012 har UEFA implementerat ett nytt regelverk vid namn Financial Fair Play, där klubblag måste följa denna reglering för att kunna delta i UEFA:s två största turneringar (Champions League och UEFA Europa League). Den större vikten av regleringen har lagts på en regel vid namn break-even rule som innebär att de relevanta kostnaderna inte får överstiga de relevanta intäkterna. Syftet med denna reglering är att förbättra den ekonomiska ställningen inom Europeisk fotboll, samt förbättra konkurrensbalansen i de olika ligorna. Studiens syfte är att undersöka vilken ekonomisk effekt regleringen haft på fotbollsklubbar i den engelska högstaligan. Vidare är syftet att granska hur klubbarna förhållt sig till Financial fair play och hur klubbarna klarat implementeringen, detta för att se om klubbarna har stärkt deras position i hierarkin och hur konkurrensbalansen i ligan har påverkats. En analys av ekonomiska rapporter har genomförts för de klubblag som deltagit i den Engelska Premier League säsongerna 2005/2006-2014/2015. Den totala populationen för studien blev 36 lag. En totalundersökning har gjorts där studien använt sig av beräkningar som Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, C5 Ratio och Pearsons korrelationskoefficient. Studien har utgått ifrån regleringsteorin public interest theory, den nyinstitutionella teorin med fokus på den tvingande isomorfismen samt contest theory model för att kunna ge svar på studiens frågeställning. Det kan konstateras att lagen i Premier League förbättrat deras ekonomiska ställning efter att regleringen sattes i kraft. Break-even kravet har tvingat lag att ta mer hänsyn till ekonomin, detta kan ha i kombination med andra faktorer resulterat i en bättre ekonomisk utveckling. Vidare kan det konstateras att konkurrensbalansen har förbättrats överlag mellan lagen men samtidigt har den försämrats mellan topp fem och resterande, det vill säga konkurrensbalansen mellan lagen under topp fem har förbättrats. Det går dock inte att fastställa om den e

Background: Several studies have reported the epidemiology of injuries in professional rugby union, but there are limited studies about amateur rugby, especially in a third-world setting. No epidemiological studies have been done on injuries in Namibian club rugby. Namibian rugby does not have an injury prevention programme, so the expectation is that there is a high rate of injuries and recurrent injuries in Namibian rugby. Aims: The aim of the study was to investigate the epidemiology of injuries among club rugby players in Namibia, with specific reference to recurrent injuries. The ultimate goal will be to use the results of this study to develop an injury prevention programme for Namibian rugby. Method: A prospective, descriptive study was undertaken to investigate the injury epidemiology among the players of 11 Namibian premier league rugby teams. Of the 414 players who played in premier league matches, 117 players suffered 156 injuries. The researcher visited all 11 clubs to collect the data from the injured players. The researcher conducted telephone interviews with the players who were not personally interviewed. All data were recorded on data collection forms, and the date included the players’ anthropometric data, dates of injuries and return from injury, time the match injury occurred, match event causing the injury, body location of injury, diagnostic investigations done and treatment received and whether the injury was recurrent. Results: The injury rate of time-loss injuries in matches was 74.4 injuries per 1 000 player-match hours for the season. Most injuries (87.7%) took more than seven days to recover from, which is longer than expected. Most injuries (34.4%) occurred during the final quarter of a match. The tackle was responsible for most (48.4%) of all time-loss injuries and all contact match events caused 83.5% of all match injuries. Significantly more running injuries (12.3% or 9.1 per 1 000 player-match hours) were recurrent than first-time in

En medieteoretisk analys av kontemporär mediering av fotbollen både vad gäller TV och tidningar. Uppsatsen söker etablera ett samband mellan en allt mer utbredd konstjargong i medieringen av fotbollen med den eskalerande kommersialiseringen av densamma där konsten/dramat får stå som alibi eller ursäkt och ibland motvikt mot penningens utbreda inflytande. I slutändan ser uppsatsen att allt som oftast är det de hängivna supportrarna som i sin lojalitet till klubben är de som får lida hårdast av detta då det kapitalistiska systemet, om man så vill, utnyttjar och profiterar på supportrarnas solidaritet och lojalitet. I resonemanget vägs globaliseringens effekter in där de inhemska supportrarna som konsumenter blir allt mindre viktiga, eller åtminstone utbytbara, eftersom "supportrar" och turister kan flygas in från alla världens hörn.

Att i förväg försöka förutsäga vilket lag som kommer vinna i en fotbollsmatch har nog de flesta försökt sig på någon gång. Att gissa och att faktiskt försöka att analysera båda lagens förutsättningar är två väldigt olika metoder att komma fram till sitt resultat. I och med att datorkraften de senaste åren kraftigt förbättrats har det också kommit fler och framför allt tyngre matematiska modeller för att skatta utfallet av matcher. I detta examensarbete används Pi-ratingsystemet som går ut på att varje lag får en rating för hur bra man är på hemma- respektive bortaplan. Som en utveckling av den ursprungliga Pi-rating modellen används det i detta arbete tre olika modeller för att prediktera lagens framtida rating. Modellerna som används är enkelt glidande medelvärde, enkel exponentiell utjämning och en ARIMA-modell. En lösning på hur nya lag som inte spelade i ligan föregående år ska behandlas föreslås också. Avslutningsvis diskuteras olika investeringsmetoder som kan användas för att använda resultat från modellerna på marknaden för vadslagning. Resultatet visar att en spelstrategi som utnyttjat Kellys formel ger störst avkastning för kalibreringsdatat. När denna strategi används på matcher utanför kalibreringsåren visar resultatet på en mycket låg vinst och framför allt att vinsten under lång tid är negativ, vilket från en investeringssyn inte är något man önskar. Sammanfattningsvis är denna metod inte i sig själv tillräckligt bra för att ge en säker avkastning men är en bra grund som kan byggas ut för att ta hänsyn till fler faktorer och då ge möjlighet till stabilare och mer långsiktiga vinster., To predict a soccer game in advance is something that has been done by most people. If the prediction is the result of an advanced mathematical formula or just ha pure guess done on your favorite team is very different. Since the computer power in recent years has greatly improved the number of mathematical approaches has increased and it is especially the computational heavy models that have increased in number. In this thesis the Pi-rating system is used it gives each team a home and away rating that describe how good/bad they are compared to the average competing team. As an extension of the original Pi-rating model, in this thesis time series analysis is used to predict future values of the teams rating, three different methods are tested and they are simple moving average, simple exponential smoothing and an ARIMA-model. A solution to how new teams that did not play in the league last year should be handled is also suggested. Finally a breath discussion and test of different investment methods that can be applied on the final model to be used on the sport betting market. The results show that the greatest returns on the calibration data is achieved when Kelly’s formula is used as an investment method on an ARIMA(0,1,1)-model, but when this strategy is used outside calibration data, the result shows a very low profit and the method fails to give a stable long term return, which from an investment point of view is not desirable. The conclusion is that this method is not in itself good enough to provide a safe return but is a good foundation that can be expanded to take more factors into account, and then hopefully give bigger and more stable winnings.

The FA Premier League (“FAPL”) runs the Premier League, the leading professional football league competition for football clubs in England. FAPL’s activities include commercially exploiting the associated broadcasting rights. In maximising the value of the broadcasting rights to its members (the clubs) FAPL grants licences in respect of these rights for live transmission, on a territorial basis and for three-year terms. Rights are awarded to broadcasters under an open competitive tender procedure which begins with the invitation to tenderers to submit bids on a global, regional or territorial basis. Demand then determines the territorial basis on which FAPL sells its international rights. However, as a rule, that basis is national since there is only a limited demand from bidders for global or pan-European rights, given that broadcasters usually operate on a territorial basis and serve the domestic market either in their own country or in a small cluster of neighbouring countries with a common language. Where a bidder wins, for an area, a package of broadcasting rights for the live transmission of Premier League matches, it is granted the exclusive right to broadcast them in that area. This is necessary, according to FAPL, in order to realise the optimum commercial value of all of the rights, broadcasters being prepared to pay a premium to acquire that exclusivity as it allows them to differentiate their services from those of their rivals and therefore enhances their ability to generate revenue. In order to protect the territorial exclusivity of all broadcasters, they each undertake, in their licence agreement with FAPL, to prevent the public from receiving their broadcasts outside the area for which they hold the licence. This requires, first, each broadcaster to ensure that all of its broadcasts capable of being received outside that territory – in particular those transmitted by satellite – are encrypted securely and cannot be received in unencrypted form. Secon

Betting under ordered forms has been around for a long time, but the recent increase in Internet betting and the large sums of money that are now involved makes it even more important for betting companies to have correct odds. The purpose of the essay is to calculate probabilities for outcomes of football games using a statistical model and to see if you can find better odds than a betting company. The data contains the 380 games from the 2004/2005 season and the variables form, head-to-heads, league position, points, home/away, average attendance, promoted team, distance and final league position from previous season. After performing an ordered probit regression we only find the variable “form of the away team” to be significant at the 5 % level. We suspect the presence of multicollinearity and perform a VIF-test which confirms this. To fix this problem we perform a second ordered probit regression where a number of variables are combined to index variables. In the second regression we once again find only one significant variable. This time it is the variable “difference between home and away teams’ final league position”. A reason for the lack of significant variables could be the size of the data. A new model with five variables is examined and it results in four significant variables. The calculated odds pick the correct result in 200, 203 and 198 out of 380 games respectively, compared to 197 out of 380 for Unibet. Betting one krona on the lowest calculated odds from the second model will result in a positive yield for season 2004/2005 when using Unibet’s odds., Vadslagning under ordnade former har funnits under en längre tid, men de senaste årens explosionsartade ökning av Internetspel och de stora summor som då omsätts har gjort det allt viktigare för spelbolagen att sätta korrekta odds. Syftet med uppsatsen är att med hjälp av en statistisk modell räkna ut sannolikheter för utfall i fotbollsmatcher och att undersöka om man kan hitta bättre odds än ett spelbolag. Datamaterialet innefattar de 380 matcherna som spelades säsongen 2004/2005 samt de oberoende variablerna form, inbördes möten, tabellplacering, poängskörd, hemmaplan/bortaplan, publiksnitt, uppflyttat lag, avstånd och slutplacering. Efter utförd ordered probit regression erhåller vi endast en signifikant variabel vid en signifikansnivå på 5 %, nämligen ”bortalagets form”. Vi misstänker att det kan förekomma multikollinearitet och utför därför ett VIF-test som bekräftar detta. För att råda bot på detta problem genomför vi en andra ordered probit regression där flera variabler slås ihop till indexvariabler. I den andra regressionen får vi åter igen en enda signifikant variabel, men i detta fall är det variabeln ”differensen mellan hemma- och bortalagets slutplaceringar”. Ett skäl till att det inte blir fler signifikanta variabler misstänks vara storleken på datamaterialet. En ny modell med fem variabler undersöks och då blir fyra variabler signifikanta. De beräknade oddsen väljer rätt utfall i 200, 203 respektive 198 av 380 matcher för de tre modellerna mot Unibets 197 av 380 matcher. I modell 2 ger en spelad krona på utfallet med lägst beräknat odds positiv avkastning under säsongen vid spel hos Unibet.

Kurzové sázení je momentálně velkým fenoménem a tato práce se zaměřuje na vyhodnocení klíčových faktorů v sázení na nejvyšší anglickou fotbalovou ligu. Účelem této práce je dát sázejícímu odpověď na to, zda se s daným kurzem vyplatí vsadit si na určitý zápas při zvážení všech rizik, či nikoliv. V této práci jsou zanalyzována určitá data, na kterých by měl záviset výsledek zápasu. Data jsou posbíraná z několika předchozích ročníků dané soutěže a také z dalších soutěží, kterých se týmy z nejvyšší anglické fotbalové ligy účastní., Betting on sports is currently a trending phenomenon and this thesis is focusing on evaluating key factors for betting on the Premier League football matches. The aim of this thesis is to provide a better with an answer to whether it is a good idea to make a bet on a certain match considering current odds and risk factors or not. In this thesis we analysed certain amount of data on which the match results shall be depending on. We collected the data from previous seasons of this League as well as from other football competitions the Premier League teams take part in.

Hra Fantasy Premier League poskytuje miliónom hráčov po celom svete možnosť stať sa na chvíľu manažérom svojho vlastného klubu. Výsledky a bodové ohodnotenie v hre závisia na správnom predvídaní, ako sa budú hráči chovať v skutočných futbalových zápasoch. Ak by pri tomto rozhodovaní pomáhal software na predikciu a analýzu budúcich výkonov hráčov, výsledky v hre sa môžu rapídne zlepšiť. Táto diplomová práca sa zaoberá návrhom a implementáciou predikčného modelu, ktorý využíva neurónové siete na predikcie časových radov počas celej sezóny v hre. Boli použité metódy na spracovanie dát o hráčoch a kluboch za posledné 4 sezóny. Výkonnosť a presnosť predikčných metód boli testované na dátach z poslednej sezóny Premier League a predikcie algoritmu sa vo väčšine prípadov blížili realite. Ak by sa užívateľ držal predikčného modelu v hre stopercentne, získal by väčší počet bodov ako bežný hráč, ktorý žiadny predikčný model nepoužíva., Fantasy Premier League online game gives millions of players around the world the chance to become a manager of their club for a while. The results and scores in the game depend on correctly predicting how players will behave in real football matches. If the user had software for predicting and analyzing players' future performance, it would help with making decisions and the outcome of the game could significantly improve. This master's thesis deals with the design and implementation of a prediction model that uses neural networks for time series prediction throughout the game season. Various methods were used to process player and club data for the last 4 seasons. The results are presented in the form of a web application where users can use the created model on their teams. Performance and accuracy of prediction methods were tested on the data from the last season of the Premier League and algorithm predictions were in most of the cases close to reality. If the user used the prediction model's advice 100% in the game, he would score more points than a regular player who does not use any prediction model.

Kurzové sázení je momentálně velkým fenoménem a tato práce se zaměřuje na vyhodnocení klíčových faktorů v sázení na nejvyšší anglickou fotbalovou ligu. Účelem této práce je dát sázejícímu odpověď na to, zda se s daným kurzem vyplatí vsadit si na určitý zápas při zvážení všech rizik, či nikoliv. V této práci jsou zanalyzována určitá data, na kterých by měl záviset výsledek zápasu. Data jsou posbíraná z několika předchozích ročníků dané soutěže a také z dalších soutěží, kterých se týmy z nejvyšší anglické fotbalové ligy účastní., Betting on sports is currently a trending phenomenon and this thesis is focusing on evaluating key factors for betting on the Premier League football matches. The aim of this thesis is to provide a better with an answer to whether it is a good idea to make a bet on a certain match considering current odds and risk factors or not. In this thesis we analysed certain amount of data on which the match results shall be depending on. We collected the data from previous seasons of this League as well as from other football competitions the Premier League teams take part in.

Kurzové sázení je momentálně velkým fenoménem a tato práce se zaměřuje na vyhodnocení klíčových faktorů v sázení na nejvyšší anglickou fotbalovou ligu. Účelem této práce je dát sázejícímu odpověď na to, zda se s daným kurzem vyplatí vsadit si na určitý zápas při zvážení všech rizik, či nikoliv. V této práci jsou zanalyzována určitá data, na kterých by měl záviset výsledek zápasu. Data jsou posbíraná z několika předchozích ročníků dané soutěže a také z dalších soutěží, kterých se týmy z nejvyšší anglické fotbalové ligy účastní., Betting on sports is currently a trending phenomenon and this thesis is focusing on evaluating key factors for betting on the Premier League football matches. The aim of this thesis is to provide a better with an answer to whether it is a good idea to make a bet on a certain match considering current odds and risk factors or not. In this thesis we analysed certain amount of data on which the match results shall be depending on. We collected the data from previous seasons of this League as well as from other football competitions the Premier League teams take part in.

Kurzové sázení je momentálně velkým fenoménem a tato práce se zaměřuje na vyhodnocení klíčových faktorů v sázení na nejvyšší anglickou fotbalovou ligu. Účelem této práce je dát sázejícímu odpověď na to, zda se s daným kurzem vyplatí vsadit si na určitý zápas při zvážení všech rizik, či nikoliv. V této práci jsou zanalyzována určitá data, na kterých by měl záviset výsledek zápasu. Data jsou posbíraná z několika předchozích ročníků dané soutěže a také z dalších soutěží, kterých se týmy z nejvyšší anglické fotbalové ligy účastní., Betting on sports is currently a trending phenomenon and this thesis is focusing on evaluating key factors for betting on the Premier League football matches. The aim of this thesis is to provide a better with an answer to whether it is a good idea to make a bet on a certain match considering current odds and risk factors or not. In this thesis we analysed certain amount of data on which the match results shall be depending on. We collected the data from previous seasons of this League as well as from other football competitions the Premier League teams take part in.

Hra Fantasy Premier League poskytuje miliónom hráčov po celom svete možnosť stať sa na chvíľu manažérom svojho vlastného klubu. Výsledky a bodové ohodnotenie v hre závisia na správnom predvídaní, ako sa budú hráči chovať v skutočných futbalových zápasoch. Ak by pri tomto rozhodovaní pomáhal software na predikciu a analýzu budúcich výkonov hráčov, výsledky v hre sa môžu rapídne zlepšiť. Táto diplomová práca sa zaoberá návrhom a implementáciou predikčného modelu, ktorý využíva neurónové siete na predikcie časových radov počas celej sezóny v hre. Boli použité metódy na spracovanie dát o hráčoch a kluboch za posledné 4 sezóny. Výkonnosť a presnosť predikčných metód boli testované na dátach z poslednej sezóny Premier League a predikcie algoritmu sa vo väčšine prípadov blížili realite. Ak by sa užívateľ držal predikčného modelu v hre stopercentne, získal by väčší počet bodov ako bežný hráč, ktorý žiadny predikčný model nepoužíva., Fantasy Premier League online game gives millions of players around the world the chance to become a manager of their club for a while. The results and scores in the game depend on correctly predicting how players will behave in real football matches. If the user had software for predicting and analyzing players' future performance, it would help with making decisions and the outcome of the game could significantly improve. This master's thesis deals with the design and implementation of a prediction model that uses neural networks for time series prediction throughout the game season. Various methods were used to process player and club data for the last 4 seasons. The results are presented in the form of a web application where users can use the created model on their teams. Performance and accuracy of prediction methods were tested on the data from the last season of the Premier League and algorithm predictions were in most of the cases close to reality. If the user used the prediction model's advice 100% in the game, he would score more points than a regular player who does not use any prediction model.

Kurzové sázení je momentálně velkým fenoménem a tato práce se zaměřuje na vyhodnocení klíčových faktorů v sázení na nejvyšší anglickou fotbalovou ligu. Účelem této práce je dát sázejícímu odpověď na to, zda se s daným kurzem vyplatí vsadit si na určitý zápas při zvážení všech rizik, či nikoliv. V této práci jsou zanalyzována určitá data, na kterých by měl záviset výsledek zápasu. Data jsou posbíraná z několika předchozích ročníků dané soutěže a také z dalších soutěží, kterých se týmy z nejvyšší anglické fotbalové ligy účastní., Betting on sports is currently a trending phenomenon and this thesis is focusing on evaluating key factors for betting on the Premier League football matches. The aim of this thesis is to provide a better with an answer to whether it is a good idea to make a bet on a certain match considering current odds and risk factors or not. In this thesis we analysed certain amount of data on which the match results shall be depending on. We collected the data from previous seasons of this League as well as from other football competitions the Premier League teams take part in.

Hra Fantasy Premier League poskytuje miliónom hráčov po celom svete možnosť stať sa na chvíľu manažérom svojho vlastného klubu. Výsledky a bodové ohodnotenie v hre závisia na správnom predvídaní, ako sa budú hráči chovať v skutočných futbalových zápasoch. Ak by pri tomto rozhodovaní pomáhal software na predikciu a analýzu budúcich výkonov hráčov, výsledky v hre sa môžu rapídne zlepšiť. Táto diplomová práca sa zaoberá návrhom a implementáciou predikčného modelu, ktorý využíva neurónové siete na predikcie časových radov počas celej sezóny v hre. Boli použité metódy na spracovanie dát o hráčoch a kluboch za posledné 4 sezóny. Výkonnosť a presnosť predikčných metód boli testované na dátach z poslednej sezóny Premier League a predikcie algoritmu sa vo väčšine prípadov blížili realite. Ak by sa užívateľ držal predikčného modelu v hre stopercentne, získal by väčší počet bodov ako bežný hráč, ktorý žiadny predikčný model nepoužíva., Fantasy Premier League online game gives millions of players around the world the chance to become a manager of their club for a while. The results and scores in the game depend on correctly predicting how players will behave in real football matches. If the user had software for predicting and analyzing players' future performance, it would help with making decisions and the outcome of the game could significantly improve. This master's thesis deals with the design and implementation of a prediction model that uses neural networks for time series prediction throughout the game season. Various methods were used to process player and club data for the last 4 seasons. The results are presented in the form of a web application where users can use the created model on their teams. Performance and accuracy of prediction methods were tested on the data from the last season of the Premier League and algorithm predictions were in most of the cases close to reality. If the user used the prediction model's advice 100% in the game, he would score more points than a regular player who does not use any prediction model.

Kurzové sázení je momentálně velkým fenoménem a tato práce se zaměřuje na vyhodnocení klíčových faktorů v sázení na nejvyšší anglickou fotbalovou ligu. Účelem této práce je dát sázejícímu odpověď na to, zda se s daným kurzem vyplatí vsadit si na určitý zápas při zvážení všech rizik, či nikoliv. V této práci jsou zanalyzována určitá data, na kterých by měl záviset výsledek zápasu. Data jsou posbíraná z několika předchozích ročníků dané soutěže a také z dalších soutěží, kterých se týmy z nejvyšší anglické fotbalové ligy účastní., Betting on sports is currently a trending phenomenon and this thesis is focusing on evaluating key factors for betting on the Premier League football matches. The aim of this thesis is to provide a better with an answer to whether it is a good idea to make a bet on a certain match considering current odds and risk factors or not. In this thesis we analysed certain amount of data on which the match results shall be depending on. We collected the data from previous seasons of this League as well as from other football competitions the Premier League teams take part in.

Hra Fantasy Premier League poskytuje miliónom hráčov po celom svete možnosť stať sa na chvíľu manažérom svojho vlastného klubu. Výsledky a bodové ohodnotenie v hre závisia na správnom predvídaní, ako sa budú hráči chovať v skutočných futbalových zápasoch. Ak by pri tomto rozhodovaní pomáhal software na predikciu a analýzu budúcich výkonov hráčov, výsledky v hre sa môžu rapídne zlepšiť. Táto diplomová práca sa zaoberá návrhom a implementáciou predikčného modelu, ktorý využíva neurónové siete na predikcie časových radov počas celej sezóny v hre. Boli použité metódy na spracovanie dát o hráčoch a kluboch za posledné 4 sezóny. Výkonnosť a presnosť predikčných metód boli testované na dátach z poslednej sezóny Premier League a predikcie algoritmu sa vo väčšine prípadov blížili realite. Ak by sa užívateľ držal predikčného modelu v hre stopercentne, získal by väčší počet bodov ako bežný hráč, ktorý žiadny predikčný model nepoužíva., Fantasy Premier League online game gives millions of players around the world the chance to become a manager of their club for a while. The results and scores in the game depend on correctly predicting how players will behave in real football matches. If the user had software for predicting and analyzing players' future performance, it would help with making decisions and the outcome of the game could significantly improve. This master's thesis deals with the design and implementation of a prediction model that uses neural networks for time series prediction throughout the game season. Various methods were used to process player and club data for the last 4 seasons. The results are presented in the form of a web application where users can use the created model on their teams. Performance and accuracy of prediction methods were tested on the data from the last season of the Premier League and algorithm predictions were in most of the cases close to reality. If the user used the prediction model's advice 100% in the game, he would score more points than a regular player who does not use any prediction model.