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Diese Arbeit zielt darauf ab, die raumzeitlichen Regelmäßigkeiten an Übergängen aufzudecken, die in saisonalen Klima- und Ingenieursystemen beobachtet werden, indem moderne Methoden der komplexen Systemwissenschaft verwendet werden. Das erste System ist der indische Sommermonsun - eine Regenzeit, deren jährliche Schwankungen das Leben und den Wohlstand von mehr als einer Milliarde Menschen auf dem indischen Subkontinent beeinflussen und die Wirtschaft des von der Landwirtschaft abhängigen Landes stark beeinträchtigen. Insbesondere die Kenntnis des zeitlichen Ablaufs des Übergangs vom Vormonsun zum Monsun ist für die Planung landwirtschaftlicher Aktivitäten dringend erforderlich. Die Vorhersage des Monsunzeitpunkts über dem indischen Kontinent bleibt jedoch eine große wissenschaftliche Herausforderung. Das zweite ist ein Verbrennungssystem, das anfällig für ein katastrophales Phänomen namens thermoakustische Instabilität ist, das verhindert, dass das Verbrennungssystem unter klimafreundlichen Bedingungen betrieben wird. Eine solche Brennkammer ist typisch für Energie- und Antriebssysteme wie Gasturbinentriebwerke, Boiler und Raketen. Zu verstehen, wann der Übergang zur thermoakustischen Instabilität auftritt und wie dieser Übergang unterdrückt werden kann, sind Schlüsselfragen für die Entwicklung klimafreundlicher Motoren. Diese Dissertation liefert ein neues Verständnis des indischen Sommermonsuns und der thermoakustischen Instabilität durch auf statistischer Physik basierende Ansätze, die verborgene Merkmale in diesen Systemen nahe ihren jeweiligen Übergängen aufdecken., This thesis aims to reveal the spatiotemporal regularities at transitions observed in seasonal climate and engineering systems by utilizing modern methods of complex systems science. The first system is the Indian Summer Monsoon - a rainy season whose yearly variability affects the life and prosperity of more than a billion people in the Indian subcontinent and strongly impacts the economy of the agriculture-dependent country. In particular, knowledge of the timing of the transition from pre-monsoon to monsoon is greatly needed for the planning of agriculture activities. However, the prediction of monsoon timing over the Indian continent remains a significant scientific challenge. The second is a combustion system prone to a catastrophic phenomenon called thermoacoustic instability, which prevents the combustion system from being operated in climate-friendly conditions. Such a combustor is typical in power and propulsion systems such as gas turbine engines, boilers, and rockets. Understanding when the transition to thermoacoustic instability occurs and how to suppress this transition are key questions for developing climate-friendly engines. This thesis provides a new understanding of the Indian Summer Monsoon and thermoacoustic instability through statistical physics-based approaches that reveal hidden features in these systems near their respective transitions.

This study investigates the sub-synoptic scale circulation aspects associated with the extreme rainfall event occurred over the North Indian state of Uttarakhand located in the western Himalayas (WH) during the 15–18 June 2013 period. A diagnosis based on hourly ERA5 reanalyzed circulation products archived on finer grids reveals that sustenance of heavy rains during the event period is supported by a propensity of cyclonic vorticity sources channeled toward the WH region through a narrow quasi-steady conduit in the lower troposphere from the ISM circulation. The equatorward segregating mesoscale potential vorticity (PV) structures from the quasi-stationary upper level PV anomaly (trough) during the event administered two pathways for vorticity sources. The first pathway is from the base of the trough culminating into longer horizontal conduit path from the western Arabian Sea, lending perpetual cyclonic vorticity support to the ISM environment. The second pathway is from the right flank of the trough, which promotes sustained environment of deeper mesoscale convergence zone, potentially unstable atmosphere and strong ascent over the Uttarakhand region. The convergence zone is potentially viewed as a region for strong monsoon and extratropical circulation interactions to occur on finer horizontal scales of motion, where significant vertical synchronization of positive PV advection is realized during the 16–17 June 2013 period. In addition to orographic precipitation enhancements, deeper advective synchronization noticed at sub-synoptic time periods is accredited to the nearly doubling 24-h rainfall amounts in the foothill region of Uttarakhand during the event period. The ERA5 diagnosed diabatic heating additionally indicates that precipitating systems at higher (foothill) elevations contribute to upper (lower) tropospheric heat sources.

This study investigates the sub-synoptic scale circulation aspects associated with the extreme rainfall event occurred over the North Indian state of Uttarakhand located in the western Himalayas (WH) during the 15–18 June 2013 period. A diagnosis based on hourly ERA5 reanalyzed circulation products archived on finer grids reveals that sustenance of heavy rains during the event period is supported by a propensity of cyclonic vorticity sources channeled toward the WH region through a narrow quasi-steady conduit in the lower troposphere from the ISM circulation. The equatorward segregating mesoscale potential vorticity (PV) structures from the quasi-stationary upper level PV anomaly (trough) during the event administered two pathways for vorticity sources. The first pathway is from the base of the trough culminating into longer horizontal conduit path from the western Arabian Sea, lending perpetual cyclonic vorticity support to the ISM environment. The second pathway is from the right flank of the trough, which promotes sustained environment of deeper mesoscale convergence zone, potentially unstable atmosphere and strong ascent over the Uttarakhand region. The convergence zone is potentially viewed as a region for strong monsoon and extratropical circulation interactions to occur on finer horizontal scales of motion, where significant vertical synchronization of positive PV advection is realized during the 16–17 June 2013 period. In addition to orographic precipitation enhancements, deeper advective synchronization noticed at sub-synoptic time periods is accredited to the nearly doubling 24-h rainfall amounts in the foothill region of Uttarakhand during the event period. The ERA5 diagnosed diabatic heating additionally indicates that precipitating systems at higher (foothill) elevations contribute to upper (lower) tropospheric heat sources.

A numerical study using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) was performed to assess the impact of initial and boundary conditions, the parameterization of turbulence transfer and its coupling with cloud-driven radiation, and cloud microphysical processes on the accuracy of mesoscale predictions and forecasts of the cloud-capped marine boundary layer. Aircraft, buoy, and satellite data and the large eddy simulation (LES) results during the Dynamics and Chemistry of Marine Stratocumulus field experiment (DYCOMS II) in July 2001 were used in the assessment. Three of the tested input fields (Eta, NCEP, and ECMWF) show deficiencies, mainly in the thermodynamic structure of the lowest 1500 m of the marine atmosphere. On a positive note, the simulated marine-layer depth showed good agreement with aircraft observations using the Eta fields, while using the NCEP and ECMWF datasets underestimated the marine-layer depth by about 20%–30%. The predicted turbulence kinetic energy (inversion strength) was about 50% of that obtained from the LES results (aircraft observed). As a consequence of moisture overprediction, the predicted liquid water path was twice the observed by 1–2 g kg 1. The sensitivity tests have shown that the selections of turbulence and cloud microphysical schemes significantly influence the turbulence estimates and cloud parameters. Two of the tested turbulence schemes (Eta PBL and Burk–Thompson) did not exhibit the coupling with radiation. The significant differences in the simulated turbulence estimates appear to be a consequence of the use of water-conserving potential temperature variables. The microphysical parameterization, which uses the number concentration of cloud drops in the autoconversion process, simulates a realistic evolution of precipitable hydrometeors in the cloudy marine layer on the positive side, but on the other hand enhances the decoupling in the turbulence str