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ISER discussion paper, November 2006 Revised September 2007, In this paper, we conduct a dynamic panel analysis of the determinants of the household saving rate in China using a life cycle model and panel data on Chinese provinces for the 1995-2004 period from China’s household survey. We find that China’s household saving rate has been high and rising and that the main determinants of variations over time and over space therein are the lagged saving rate, the income growth rate, (in many cases) the real interest rate, and (in some cases) the inflation rate. However, we find that the variables relating to the age structure of the population have the expected impact on the household saving rate in only one of the four samples. These results provide mixed support for the life cycle hypothesis as well as the permanent income hypothesis, are consistent with the existence of inertia or persistence, and imply that China’s household saving rate will remain high for some time to come.

ISER discussion paper, November 2006 Revised September 2007, In this paper, we conduct a dynamic panel analysis of the determinants of the household saving rate in China using a life cycle model and panel data on Chinese provinces for the 1995-2004 period from China’s household survey. We find that China’s household saving rate has been high and rising and that the main determinants of variations over time and over space therein are the lagged saving rate, the income growth rate, (in many cases) the real interest rate, and (in some cases) the inflation rate. However, we find that the variables relating to the age structure of the population have the expected impact on the household saving rate in only one of the four samples. These results provide mixed support for the life cycle hypothesis as well as the permanent income hypothesis, are consistent with the existence of inertia or persistence, and imply that China’s household saving rate will remain high for some time to come.

* Revised: Response to Health Information: Evidence from Cigarette Consumption and Intake of Nicotine and Tar in Japan [04-12, 2004], Japan has implemented a number of anti-smoking policies; these includeinformation disclosures, taxation, and smoking bans. These measureshave increased the information available to consumers, as well astax rates on tobacco products. First, this paper shows, theoretically,the association between a lack of information and over-consumptionof cigarettes, and then examines the effects of smoking policies usingmonthly data from 1951 to 1999. Long-term policies have had greatereffects than short-term policies. Taxation has reduced consumption,but income differences have had no significant effect. Following healthdisclosures in 1964 and 1967, many consumers switched to filteredcigarettes and low-nicotine and low-tar products, respectively. Themove to lower tar and nicotine products was further accelerated by the“harmful to health"label applied to cigarettes in 1972, although manysmokers then raised the number of cigarettes they smoked to keep uptheir intake of nicotine. Other policies have decreased cigarette, nicotine,and tar consumption since 1972.

subsequently published in Applied Economics, vol.38, no.14, pp.1663-1675, August 2006, * Revised: Rational Addiction, Tax Revenues and Tobacco Control [04-11, 2004], The hypotheses of non-addiction, myopia and rational addiction aretested using annual, quarterly and monthly data. Changes in the prices ofJapanese cigarettes can be viewed as exogenous from the point of view ofconsumer behavior, because the Japanese government controls cigaretteprices. The empirical results of this paper support the addiction hypothesis.The short-run and long-run price elasticities range from -0.338 to-0.421, and from -0.679 to -0.686, respectively; thus, increases in tax revenuesin the long-run are likely to be smaller than those in the short-run.As a result, tax increases would be an effective means of curbing smokingand reducing its social cost. Furthermore, the debt compensationprograms for the Japan Railway and the National Forestry will not goaccording to plan, unless revenues are increased in the future.

subsequently published in Applied Economics, vol.38, no.14, pp.1663-1675, August 2006, * Revised: Rational Addiction, Tax Revenues and Tobacco Control [04-11, 2004], The hypotheses of non-addiction, myopia and rational addiction aretested using annual, quarterly and monthly data. Changes in the prices ofJapanese cigarettes can be viewed as exogenous from the point of view ofconsumer behavior, because the Japanese government controls cigaretteprices. The empirical results of this paper support the addiction hypothesis.The short-run and long-run price elasticities range from -0.338 to-0.421, and from -0.679 to -0.686, respectively; thus, increases in tax revenuesin the long-run are likely to be smaller than those in the short-run.As a result, tax increases would be an effective means of curbing smokingand reducing its social cost. Furthermore, the debt compensationprograms for the Japan Railway and the National Forestry will not goaccording to plan, unless revenues are increased in the future.

* Revised: Response to Health Information: Evidence from Cigarette Consumption and Intake of Nicotine and Tar in Japan [04-12, 2004], Japan has implemented a number of anti-smoking policies; these includeinformation disclosures, taxation, and smoking bans. These measureshave increased the information available to consumers, as well astax rates on tobacco products. First, this paper shows, theoretically,the association between a lack of information and over-consumptionof cigarettes, and then examines the effects of smoking policies usingmonthly data from 1951 to 1999. Long-term policies have had greatereffects than short-term policies. Taxation has reduced consumption,but income differences have had no significant effect. Following healthdisclosures in 1964 and 1967, many consumers switched to filteredcigarettes and low-nicotine and low-tar products, respectively. Themove to lower tar and nicotine products was further accelerated by the“harmful to health"label applied to cigarettes in 1972, although manysmokers then raised the number of cigarettes they smoked to keep uptheir intake of nicotine. Other policies have decreased cigarette, nicotine,and tar consumption since 1972.

* Revised: Response of Consumers to the Mandatory Disclosure of Information: Evidence from Japanese Inter-brand Cigarette Sales [04-13, 2004], I estimated inter-brand cigarette demands with nicotine, tar contentand policy event information in Japan during 1950-84. The demand for allbrands increased but the demand for plain (non-filter) brands decreaseddue to the dissemination of“A Note about Health Damage from Smoking" in 1964. The demand for all brands increased but the demand forhigh-nicotine brands decreased due to the disclosure of nicotine and tarcontent in 1967 and the labeling warnings in 1972, however consumershad still preferred high-nicotine brands after 1972. Contrastively, thedemand for high-tar brands increased in 1967 but decreased in 1972, andconsumers had switched to prefer low-tar brands after 1972. Disclosure didnot reduce the intake of nicotine but reduced the intake of tar, accordinglydisclosure may benefit consumers by reducing the health risk as tar causescancers. In line with changes in inter-brand demands, the monopolisticfirm discontinued old products with poorer quality (plain, high-tar) butprovided new better ones (filter-tipped, low-tar).

* Revised: Response of Consumers to the Mandatory Disclosure of Information: Evidence from Japanese Inter-brand Cigarette Sales [04-13, 2004], I estimated inter-brand cigarette demands with nicotine, tar contentand policy event information in Japan during 1950-84. The demand for allbrands increased but the demand for plain (non-filter) brands decreaseddue to the dissemination of“A Note about Health Damage from Smoking" in 1964. The demand for all brands increased but the demand forhigh-nicotine brands decreased due to the disclosure of nicotine and tarcontent in 1967 and the labeling warnings in 1972, however consumershad still preferred high-nicotine brands after 1972. Contrastively, thedemand for high-tar brands increased in 1967 but decreased in 1972, andconsumers had switched to prefer low-tar brands after 1972. Disclosure didnot reduce the intake of nicotine but reduced the intake of tar, accordinglydisclosure may benefit consumers by reducing the health risk as tar causescancers. In line with changes in inter-brand demands, the monopolisticfirm discontinued old products with poorer quality (plain, high-tar) butprovided new better ones (filter-tipped, low-tar).

J. Wan, Cunsymer Casualities : Exploring the Economics of Habit, Information, and Uncertainty in Japan, 2014, Palgrave Macmillan US, reproduced with permission of Palgrave Macmillan., This extract is taken from the author's original manuscript and has not been edited. The definitive, published, version of record is available here: http://www.palgrave.com/us/book/9781137387240 and https://link.springer.com/book/10.1057/9781137384843 ., This is derived in part from an article published in Applied Economics on 02/08/2010, available online:https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500426900 .

J. Wan, Cunsymer Casualities : Exploring the Economics of Habit, Information, and Uncertainty in Japan, 2014, Palgrave Macmillan US, reproduced with permission of Palgrave Macmillan., This extract is taken from the author's original manuscript and has not been edited. The definitive, published, version of record is available here: http://www.palgrave.com/us/book/9781137387240 and https://link.springer.com/book/10.1057/9781137384843 ., This is derived in part from an article published in Applied Economics on 02/08/2010, available online:https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500426900 .

This paper provides new evidence about horizontal transfer and promotion using the largest available personnel panel data in Japan and interprets them from the perspective of task-specific human capital. We find that firms synchronize their employees' promotion and horizontal transfers. Then, we show theoretically that task-specific human capital can naturally generate such synchronization. We also find that the directors in an accounting department have the highest probability of being promoted to become board members, while those in a research department have the lowest. This suggests that top managers need a balanced skill set, in which allocative skill is relatively important.

This paper provides new evidence about horizontal transfer and promotion using the largest available personnel panel data in Japan and interprets them from the perspective of task-specific human capital. We find that firms synchronize their employees' promotion and horizontal transfers. Then, we show theoretically that task-specific human capital can naturally generate such synchronization. We also find that the directors in an accounting department have the highest probability of being promoted to become board members, while those in a research department have the lowest. This suggests that top managers need a balanced skill set, in which allocative skill is relatively important.

* Revised： Rational Addiction with an Optimal Inventory:Theory and Evidence from Japanese Daily and Monthly Purchases [04-01, 2004]

* Revised： Rational Addiction with an Optimal Inventory:Theory and Evidence from Japanese Daily and Monthly Purchases [04-01, 2004]