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Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), sometimes also called models for deep learning, are used extensively for the prediction of a range of environmental variables. While the potential of ANNs is unquestioned, they are surrounded by an air of mystery and intrigue, leading to a lack of understanding of their inner workings. This has led to the perpetuation of a number of myths, resulting in the misconception that applying ANNs primarily involves “throwing” a large amount of data at “black-box” software packages. While this is a convenient way to side-step the principles applied to the development of other types of models, this comes at significant cost in terms of the usefulness of the resulting models. To address these issues, this inroductory overview paper explodes a number of the common myths surrounding the use of ANNs and outlines state-of-the-art approaches to developing ANNs that enable them to be applied with confidence in practice., Wenyan Wu acknowledges support from the Australian Research Council via the Discovery Early Career Researcher Award (DE210100117)., Peer Reviewed, Postprint (published version)

Model Predictive Control (MPC) has recently gained increasing interest in the adaptive management of water resources systems due to its capability of incorporating disturbance forecasts into real-time optimal control problems. Yet, related literature is scattered with heterogeneous applications, case-specific problem settings, and results that are hardly generalized and transferable across systems. Here, we systematically review 149 peer-reviewed journal articles published over the last 25 years on MPC applied to water reservoirs, open channels, and urban water networks to identify common trends and open challenges in research and practice. The three water systems we consider are inter-connected, multi-purpose and multi-scale dynamical systems affected by multiple hydro-climatic uncertainties and evolving socioeconomic factors. Our review first identifies four main challenges currently limiting most MPC applications in the water domain: (i) lack of systematic benchmarking of MPC with respect to other control methods; (ii) lack of assessment of the impact of uncertainties on the model-based control; (iii) limited analysis of the impact of diverse forecast types, resolutions, and prediction horizons; (iv) under-consideration of the multi-objective nature of most water resources systems. We then argue that future MPC applications in water resources systems should focus on addressing these four challenges as key priorities for future developments., Andrea Castelletti, Andrea Ficchì, and Matteo Giuliani acknowledge support from the EU-funded Climate Intelligence (CLINT) project [grant number: 101003876; DOI: 10.3030/101003876]. Andrea Ficchì also acknowledges support from the AXA Research Fund Fellowship on Coastal Livelihoods. Wenyan Wu acknowledges support from the Australian Research Council via the Discovery Early Career Researcher Award [grant number: DE210100117]., Peer Reviewed, Postprint (published version)

Postprocessing forecast precipitation fields from numerical weather prediction models aims to produce ensemble forecasts that are of high quality at each grid cell and, importantly, are spatially structured in an appropriate man-ner. A conventional approach, the gridcell-by-gridcell postprocessing, typically consists of two steps: 1) perform statistical calibration separately at individual grid cells to generate unbiased, skillful, and reliable ensemble forecasts and 2) employ ensemble reordering to link ensemble members of all grid cells according to certain templates to form spatially structured ensemble forecasts. However, ensemble reordering techniques are generally problematic in practical use. For example, the well-known Schaake shuffle is often criticized for not considering real physical atmospheric conditions. In this context, a fundamentally new approach, namely, spatial-mode-based calibration (SMoC), has recently been developed for postprocessing forecast precipitation fields with inbuilt spatial structures, thereby eliminating the need for ensemble reordering. SMoC was tested on 1-day-ahead forecasts of heavy precipitation events and was found to produce ensemble forecasts with appropriate spatial structures. In this paper, we extend SMoC to calibrate forecasts of light and no precipitation events and forecasts at long lead times. We also compare SMoC with the gridcell-by-gridcell postprocessing. Results based on multiple evaluation metrics show that SMoC performs well in calibrating both forecasts of light and no precipitation events and forecasts at long lead times. Compared with the gridcell-by-gridcell postprocessing, SMoC produces ensemble forecasts with similar forecast skill, improved forecast reliability, and clearly better spatial structures. In addition, SMoC is computationally far more efficient.

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), sometimes also called models for deep learning, are used extensively for the prediction of a range of environmental variables. While the potential of ANNs is unquestioned, they are surrounded by an air of mystery and intrigue, leading to a lack of understanding of their inner workings. This has led to the perpetuation of a number of myths, resulting in the misconception that applying ANNs primarily involves “throwing” a large amount of data at “black-box” software packages. While this is a convenient way to side-step the principles applied to the development of other types of models, this comes at significant cost in terms of the usefulness of the resulting models. To address these issues, this inroductory overview paper explodes a number of the common myths surrounding the use of ANNs and outlines state-of-the-art approaches to developing ANNs that enable them to be applied with confidence in practice.

Spatial information of climatological frequency distribution of daily precipitation is highly valuable for a wide range of applications. Accurate estimation of climatology can be made for gauged locations where quality and lengthy observations are available. For ungauged or poorly gauged locations, however, indirect estimation is needed. One approach is to use a gridded daily precipitation dataset derived from interpolating observations. However, gridded daily precipitation data can be subject to large errors when gauge density is low. In addition, most interpolation methods tend to smooth the extreme values and increase the low ones, leading to unrealistic statistical properties and therefore poor estimation of daily climatology. Another approach is to first derive climatology at gauged locations and then interpolate climatology to ungauged locations. While this approach is likely to be more robust than the first approach, low gauge density can still cause significant errors especially in areas of complex terrain. In this study, we develop a method that postprocesses spatially consistent and rich reanalysis data using accurate observations at gauged locations. At an ungauged location, daily precipitation amounts from the reanalysis are bias-corrected using quantile-mapping guided by frequency distributions of reanalysis data and observations at a nearby gauged location (reference location). The bias-corrected precipitation amounts are then used to estimate the climatology for the ungauged location. This method eliminates the need for interpolation and therefore its adverse effects. Special care is taken in quantile-mapping when extrapolating beyond the range of reanalysis data at the reference location. We evaluate the method at 50 locations in Australia, using the Bureau of Meteorology Atmospheric high-resolution Regional Reanalysis for Australia (BARRA) and precipitation observation network across Australia. These locations are chosen to represent different clima

Water is a limited and highly valuable resource. In many parts of the world, water agencies allocate water according to agreed entitlement systems. The allocations are largely based on water already available in storages and rivers. Water agencies may also issue seasonal water allocation outlooks by anticipating future inflows to the storages and rivers. These outlooks are meant to assist water entitlement holders to plan for their crop planting, irrigation, and participation in water markets. Currently, these outlooks are generally based on historical inflow observations (climatology) and are often determined for a small selection of possible climatic scenarios (e.g., extreme dry, dry, average, and wet). These outlooks have large uncertainties, which require users to manage high risks themselves, leading to inefficient water use. In this study, we investigate the use of ensemble seasonal inflow forecasts to improve the production of seasonal water allocation outlooks through a case study of the Goulburn system in central Victoria, Australia. This is a complex system with active water trade both within the region and outside with the larger connected southern Murray-Darling Basin. In this case study, we integrate Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal streamflow forecasts with Goulburn-Murray Water’s water allocation to produce fully probabilistic water allocation outlooks. We evaluate the outlooks for three irrigation seasons from 2017 to 2020. We compare these outlooks with those produced from using inflows based on climatology only, an approach akin to the current practice of Goulburn-Murray Water. Using seasonal streamflow forecasts resulted in outlooks up to 60% (average 20%) closer to actual determinations, with uncertainty reduced by up to 65% (average 19%) Improvements were most obvious for short lead times and later in the irrigation season. This is a clear demonstration of how integration of streamflow forecasts can improve end-user products, which ca

Model Predictive Control (MPC) has recently gained increasing interest in the adaptive management of water resources systems due to its capability of incorporating disturbance forecasts into real-time optimal control problems. Yet, related literature is scattered with heterogeneous applications, case-specific problem settings, and results that are hardly generalized and transferable across systems. Here, we systematically review 149 peer-reviewed journal articles published over the last 25 years on MPC applied to water reservoirs, open channels, and urban water networks to identify common trends and open challenges in research and practice. The three water systems we consider are inter-connected, multi-purpose and multi-scale dynamical systems affected by multiple hydro-climatic uncertainties and evolving socioeconomic factors. Our review first identifies four main challenges currently limiting most MPC applications in the water domain: (i) lack of systematic benchmarking of MPC with respect to other control methods; (ii) lack of assessment of the impact of uncertainties on the model-based control; (iii) limited analysis of the impact of diverse forecast types, resolutions, and prediction horizons; (iv) under-consideration of the multi-objective nature of most water resources systems. We then argue that future MPC applications in water resources systems should focus on addressing these four challenges as key priorities for future developments., Transport Engineering and Logistics, Delft Center for Systems and Control

This paper presents a case study of the operational management of the Robinvale high-pressure piped irrigation water delivery system (RVHPS) in Australia. Based on datasets available, improved pump setpoint selection using a calibrated hydraulic model is investigated. The first step was to implement pre-processing of measured flow and pressure data to identify errors in the data and possible faulty sensors. An EPANET hydraulic simulation model was updated with calibrated pipe roughness height values by using the processed pressure and flow data. Then, new pump setpoints were selected using the calibrated model given the actual measured demands such that the pressures in the network were minimized subject to required customer service standards. Based on a two-day simulation, it was estimated that 4.7% savings in pumping energy cost as well as 4.7% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions can be achieved by applying the new pump setpoints., Comment: 2nd IFAC Workshop on Control Methods for Water Resource Systems

Compound weather and climate events are combinations of climate drivers and/or hazards that contribute to societal or environmental risk. Studying compound events often requires a multidisciplinary approach combining domain knowledge of the underlying processes with, for example, statistical methods and climate model outputs. Recently, to aid the development of research on compound events, four compound event types were introduced, namely (a) preconditioned, (b) multivariate, (c) temporally compounding, and (d) spatially compounding events. However, guidelines on how to study these types of events are still lacking. Here, we consider four case studies, each associated with a specific event type and a research question, to illustrate how the key elements of compound events (e.g., analytical tools and relevant physical effects) can be identified. These case studies show that (a) impacts on crops from hot and dry summers can be exacerbated by preconditioning effects of dry and bright springs. (b) Assessing compound coastal flooding in Perth (Australia) requires considering the dynamics of a non-stationary multivariate process. For instance, future mean sea-level rise will lead to the emergence of concurrent coastal and fluvial extremes, enhancing compound flooding risk. (c) In Portugal, deep-landslides are often caused by temporal clusters of moderate precipitation events. Finally, (d) crop yield failures in France and Germany are strongly correlated, threatening European food security through spatially compounding effects. These analyses allow for identifying general recommendations for studying compound events. Overall, our insights can serve as a blueprint for compound event analysis across disciplines and sectors., Plain Language Summary: Many societal and environmental impacts from events such as droughts and storms arise from a combination of weather and climate factors referred to as a compound event. Considering the complex nature of these high-impact events is crucial for an accurate assessment of climate-related risk, for example to develop adaptation and emergency preparedness strategies. However, compound event research has emerged only recently, therefore our ability to analyze these events is still limited. In practice, studying compound events is a challenging task, which often requires interaction between experts across multiple disciplines. Recently, compound events were divided into four types to aid the framing of research on this topic, but guidelines on how to study these four types are missing. Here, we take a pragmatic approach and—focusing on case studies of different compound event types—illustrate how to address specific research questions that could be of interest to users. The results allow identifying recommendations for compound event analyses. Furthermore, through the case studies, we highlight the relevance that compounding effects have for the occurrence of landslides, flooding, vegetation impacts, and crop failures. The guidelines emerged from this work will assist the development of compound event analysis across disciplines and sectors.

Xiaodong Li,1 Meng Yuan,1 Ping Xu,2 Wenyan Wu1 1School of Psychology, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen, People’s Republic of China; 2College of Education, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou, People’s Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: Xiaodong LiSchool of Psychology, Shenzhen University, L3 Room 1220, Nanshan District, Shenzhen, Guangdong, 518060, People’s Republic of ChinaFax +86 755-26534605Email lxd_psy@163.comPing XuCollege of Education, Wenzhou University, Room 207, Building A9, Advanced Education Park Zone, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, 325000, People’s Republic of ChinaEmail px483811@gmail.comAim: Previous studies have found that both children and adults have difficulties in dealing with judgments in which self-perspective differs from other-perspective, even in level-1 perspective-taking. However, the underlying cognitive mechanism of this is still unclear. In the present study, we designed a negative priming (NP) paradigm of the dot-perspective task to examine whether inhibitory control was required to overcome egocentric bias in level-1 visual perspective-taking in children and adults. We observed an NP effect in both children (n= 43) and adults (n= 40). However, there was no significant difference between children and adults on the magnitude of the NP effect, indicating that when children could overcome the egocentric bias, they had inhibitory control ability comparable to that of adults in level-1 other-perspective-taking.Background: Visual perspective-taking is an indispensable ability in social interaction; hence, it has attracted great attention from researchers. However, the mechanism underlying this process remains unclear. The present study aimed to investigate the role of inhibitory control in level-1 visual perspective-taking from a developmental perspective in order to understand the performance differences in perspective-taking tasks between children and adults.Methods: The NP paradigm was applied to the dot-perspective task. Participants’ response times (R

Optimizing pump operations is a challenging task for real-time management of water distribution systems (WDSs). With suitable pump scheduling, pumping costs can be significantly reduced. In this research, a novel economic model predictive control (EMPC) framework for real-time management of WDSs is proposed. Optimal pump operations are selected based on predicted system behavior over a receding time horizon with the aim to minimize the total pumping energy cost. Time-varying electricity tariffs are considered while all the required water demands are satisfied. The novelty of this framework is to choose the number of pumps to operate in each pump station as decision variables in order to optimize the total pumping energy costs. By using integer programming, the proposed EMPC is applied to a benchmark case study, the Richmond Pruned network. The simulation with an EPANET hydraulic simulator is implemented. Moreover, a comparison of the results obtained using the proposed EMPC with those obtained using trigger-level control demonstrates significant economic benefits of the proposed EMPC.

[EN] The Battle of the Water Networks II (BWN-II) is the latest of a series of competitions related to the design and operation of water distribution systems (WDSs) undertaken within the Water Distribution Systems Analysis (WDSA) Symposium series. The BWN-II problem specification involved a broadly defined design and operation problem for an existing network that has to be upgraded for increased future demands, and the addition of a new development area. The design decisions involved addition of new and parallel pipes, storage, operational controls for pumps and valves, and sizing of backup power supply. Design criteria involved hydraulic, water quality, reliability, and environmental performance measures. Fourteen teams participated in the Battle and presented their results at the 14th Water Distribution Systems Analysis conference in Adelaide, Australia, September 2012. This paper summarizes the approaches used by the participants and the results they obtained. Given the complexity of the BWN-II problem and the innovative methods required to deal with the multiobjective, high dimensional and computationally demanding nature of the problem, this paper represents a snap-shot of state of the art methods for the design and operation of water distribution systems. A general finding of this paper is that there is benefit in using a combination of heuristic engineering experience and sophisticated optimization algorithms when tackling complex real-world water distribution system design problems.

For more than 20 years, the thermal mass flow meters have been widely used in several industries such as the petroleum refining industry, waste water processing and steeling making industry. I will call it “TMF” in the rest of the article. The TMF’ low-flow sensitivity and fast response have made them the first choice for many critical gas flow application. However, there are still some inadequacies in the TMF. Such as interruption among the wires, high cost of the installation and influenced by temperature. Some of the problem comes from its way of the connection--- four-wire connection. Two-wire connection can resolve some of these problems. In this thesis, the author presents a new type of two-wire installation and use of TMF which can be realized low production cost. The author found a new measurement method, which is detecting the functional relationship between working current of a traditional TMF and the flow. The author also designs a measurement converter needed for adequate signal processing so that flow value measurement values can be shown in computers.

DNA replication-initiation proteins are expressed in cancer cells, whereas some of these proteins are not expressed in non proliferating normal cells. Therefore, replication-initiation proteins may present attractive targets for anticancer therapy. Using selected antisense oligodeoxynucleotides and small interfering RNA molecules targeted to the mRNA encoding the DNA replication-initiation proteins hCdc6p, hMcm2p, and hCdc45p, we show that the target genes could be effectively and specifically silenced and that, consequently, DNA replication and cell proliferation were inhibited in cultured human cells. In addition, silencing of these genes resulted in apoptosis in both p53-positive and -negative cancer cells but not in normal cells: cancer cells entered an abortive S-phase, whereas normal cells arrested mainly in G, phase. Our studies are the first to suggest that inhibiting the expression of selective replication-initiation proteins is a novel and effective anticancer strategy.

Validation is a critical component of any modelling process. In artificial neural network (ANN) modelling, validation generally consists of the assessment of model predictive performance on an independent validation set (predictive validity). However, this ignores other aspects of model validation considered to be good practice in other areas of environmental modelling, such as residual analysis (replicative validity) and checking the plausibility of the model in relation to a priori system understanding (structural validity). In order to address this shortcoming, a validation framework for ANNs is introduced in this paper that covers all of the above aspects of validation. In addition, the validann R-package is introduced that enables these validation methods to be implemented in a user-friendly and consistent fashion. The benefits of the framework and R-package are demonstrated for two environmental modelling case studies, highlighting the importance of considering replicative and structural validity in addition to predictive validity.