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The European Parliament elections have since the 1980's been described as 'second-order national elections', which, among other things, means that they are less important to both political parties and to voters. Scholars have often described political parties as a weak link between the European Union and its citizens. Previous studies of the fulfillment of election promises have mainly focused on national governments, and not national political parties in the European Parliament. The purpose of this descriptive study is to investigate the level of fulfillment of election promises that Swedish parliamentary parties present in their election manifestos for the European Parliament election 2014. Based on previous research, this study tests five hypotheses on the material. By mapping and analyzing 183 election promises from 8 election manifestos, the results show a lower fulfillment level than Swedish governments usually achieve on the national arena. The result showed one possible covariation between which party groups the political parties belonged to and fulfillment, but no clear patterns between the characteristics of the election promise and fulfillment. The results of this study has shown that there is reason to further investigate and try to better understand election promises that are given ahead of European Parliament elections.

This paper analyses the validity of the second-order model in the 2019 municipal elections. We focus, first, on the theoretical evolution that has transformed the model proposed by Reif and Schmitt (1980). Second, it evaluates the explanatory capacity of a model that does not fit with highly fragmented and heterogeneous units of analysis. Finally, a contextual analysis is presented to provide a more robust explanation of the 2019 Spanish municipal election., Este trabajo amplía los análisis de las elecciones municipales en España. Analiza la validez del modelo interpretativo de las elecciones de segundo orden aplicado a los resultados de las elecciones de 2019. Profundiza, en primer lugar en la transformación del modelo planteado por Reif y Schmitt (1980) y evalúa la capacidad explicativa de un modelo reñido con unidades de análisis muy fragmentadas y heterogéneas. Finalmente, propone un análisis de carácter contextual que proporciona una más sólida explicación de los resultados de las elecciones municipales de 2019 en España.

This paper analyses the validity of the second-order model in the 2019 municipal elections. We focus, first, on the theoretical evolution that has transformed the model proposed by Reif and Schmitt (1980). Second, it evaluates the explanatory capacity of a model that does not fit with highly fragmented and heterogeneous units of analysis. Finally, a contextual analysis is presented to provide a more robust explanation of the 2019 Spanish municipal election., Este trabajo amplía los análisis de las elecciones municipales en España. Analiza la validez del modelo interpretativo de las elecciones de segundo orden aplicado a los resultados de las elecciones de 2019. Profundiza, en primer lugar en la transformación del modelo planteado por Reif y Schmitt (1980) y evalúa la capacidad explicativa de un modelo reñido con unidades de análisis muy fragmentadas y heterogéneas. Finalmente, propone un análisis de carácter contextual que proporciona una más sólida explicación de los resultados de las elecciones municipales de 2019 en España.

The European Parliament elections have since the 1980's been described as 'second-order national elections', which, among other things, means that they are less important to both political parties and to voters. Scholars have often described political parties as a weak link between the European Union and its citizens. Previous studies of the fulfillment of election promises have mainly focused on national governments, and not national political parties in the European Parliament. The purpose of this descriptive study is to investigate the level of fulfillment of election promises that Swedish parliamentary parties present in their election manifestos for the European Parliament election 2014. Based on previous research, this study tests five hypotheses on the material. By mapping and analyzing 183 election promises from 8 election manifestos, the results show a lower fulfillment level than Swedish governments usually achieve on the national arena. The result showed one possible covariation between which party groups the political parties belonged to and fulfillment, but no clear patterns between the characteristics of the election promise and fulfillment. The results of this study has shown that there is reason to further investigate and try to better understand election promises that are given ahead of European Parliament elections.

The provincial elections in the Serbian region of Vojvodina are preconditioned to demonstrate the typical effects of second-order competition. Its main features include the weak competences of regional institutions in a specific shared-rule arrangement, which are limited to only one province, and a non-politicized regional identity. The trend of simultaneous voting, along with a recently aligned electoral system and a centralized political arena, has created a nationalized regional competition, emulating national political dynamics. This claim is substantiated through an analysis of candidates, campaigns, and results, as well as voters’ behaviour, the last being operationalized through the dissimilarity index, both on the provincial level and on the level of polling-stations.

The provincial elections in the Serbian region of Vojvodina are preconditioned to demonstrate the typical effects of second-order competition. Its main features include the weak competences of regional institutions in a specific shared-rule arrangement, which are limited to only one province, and a non-politicized regional identity. The trend of simultaneous voting, along with a recently aligned electoral system and a centralized political arena, has created a nationalized regional competition, emulating national political dynamics. This claim is substantiated through an analysis of candidates, campaigns, and results, as well as voters’ behaviour, the last being operationalized through the dissimilarity index, both on the provincial level and on the level of polling-stations.

The 2019 regional elections in Spain were held in a context of political instability and polarization in the country and just 28 days after the national elections. Taking advantage of this unprecedented quasi-simultaneous electoral setting, this article analyzes vote-switching between regional and national elections, both at the aggregate and individual levels. Specifically, it explores whether the 2019 regional elections match the expectations of the secondorder election model. The results show that quasi-simultaneity between regional and national elections did not entail a higher level of election congruence. In addition, while most of the predictions of the second-order election model regarding aggregate election results hold for the 2019 regional elections, our findings suggest that dual voting at the individual level does not respond to the logic of the second-order election model but rather to regional political considerations., Las elecciones autonómicas de 2019 en España se celebraron en un contexto de inestabilidad política y polarización en el país y apenas veintiocho días después de las elecciones generales. Aprovechando este escenario electoral cuasi simultáneo y sin precedentes, este artículo analiza el cambio de voto entre elecciones autonómicas y generales, tanto a nivel agregado como individual. Específicamente, el artículo explora si las elecciones regionales de 2019 cumplen con las expectativas del modelo de elecciones de segundo orden. Los resultados muestran que la cuasi simultaneidad entre las elecciones autonómicas y generales no implicó un mayor nivel de congruencia electoral. Además, si bien la mayoría de las predicciones del modelo de elecciones de segundo orden respecto a los resultados electorales agregados son válidas para las elecciones autonómicas de 2019, nuestros hallazgos sugieren que el voto dual a nivel individual no responde a la lógica del modelo de elecciones de segundo orden, sino más bien a consideraciones políticas regionales.

The 2019 regional elections in Spain were held in a context of political instability and polarization in the country and just 28 days after the national elections. Taking advantage of this unprecedented quasi-simultaneous electoral setting, this article analyzes vote-switching between regional and national elections, both at the aggregate and individual levels. Specifically, it explores whether the 2019 regional elections match the expectations of the secondorder election model. The results show that quasi-simultaneity between regional and national elections did not entail a higher level of election congruence. In addition, while most of the predictions of the second-order election model regarding aggregate election results hold for the 2019 regional elections, our findings suggest that dual voting at the individual level does not respond to the logic of the second-order election model but rather to regional political considerations., Las elecciones autonómicas de 2019 en España se celebraron en un contexto de inestabilidad política y polarización en el país y apenas veintiocho días después de las elecciones generales. Aprovechando este escenario electoral cuasi simultáneo y sin precedentes, este artículo analiza el cambio de voto entre elecciones autonómicas y generales, tanto a nivel agregado como individual. Específicamente, el artículo explora si las elecciones regionales de 2019 cumplen con las expectativas del modelo de elecciones de segundo orden. Los resultados muestran que la cuasi simultaneidad entre las elecciones autonómicas y generales no implicó un mayor nivel de congruencia electoral. Además, si bien la mayoría de las predicciones del modelo de elecciones de segundo orden respecto a los resultados electorales agregados son válidas para las elecciones autonómicas de 2019, nuestros hallazgos sugieren que el voto dual a nivel individual no responde a la lógica del modelo de elecciones de segundo orden, sino más bien a consideraciones políticas regionales.

The 2019 provincial elections marked a spectacular victory for challenger party Forum voor Democratie and a substantial defeat for two government parties. The Liberals, led by prime minister Rutte, which had been the largest party in many recent elections, came second in a fragmenting party-political landscape. The Greens were the other opposition winner, while two opposition parties at the ideological extremes, the Socialist Party and the Freedom Party, suffered considerable losses. Regional or non-statewide parties remained a marginal phenomenon: they attained on average three percent of the votes. Further illustrating the heavily nationalized nature of the provincial elections, the campaign mainly focused on national issues such as climate change and the possible loss of the majority for the coalition parties in the Senate, which is elected by the provincial councils. The latter clearly affected turnout, which rose to over 56%, the highest turnout in provincial elections in thirty years.

When parties compete in European elections what issue do they prioritize? That is the question this text aims to answer. It does so by focusing on two well established theories of voter behavior, namely issue ownership and issue salience. What complicates matters is that European elections are considered second-order, meaning that they are not considered as important as elections for national parliaments. Whether issue salience or issue ownership are important factors to explain party behavior and in that case which is important. In order to answer the question a quantitative content analysis of Swedish parties’ Euromanifestos in the European election of 2019 is conducted. The results of this analysis is then combined with a more qualitative analysis of the contents of the Euromanifestos. The results indicate that both issue salience and issue ownership are highly important for the parties’ priorities. Although the most salient issue is a much stronger indicator of which issues the parties will prioritize. The analysis indicates that parties will spend the most time talking about the questions which are the most salient, and the second most salient, after which they will focus on the question that they own.

When parties compete in European elections what issue do they prioritize? That is the question this text aims to answer. It does so by focusing on two well established theories of voter behavior, namely issue ownership and issue salience. What complicates matters is that European elections are considered second-order, meaning that they are not considered as important as elections for national parliaments. Whether issue salience or issue ownership are important factors to explain party behavior and in that case which is important. In order to answer the question a quantitative content analysis of Swedish parties’ Euromanifestos in the European election of 2019 is conducted. The results of this analysis is then combined with a more qualitative analysis of the contents of the Euromanifestos. The results indicate that both issue salience and issue ownership are highly important for the parties’ priorities. Although the most salient issue is a much stronger indicator of which issues the parties will prioritize. The analysis indicates that parties will spend the most time talking about the questions which are the most salient, and the second most salient, after which they will focus on the question that they own.

Voting Advice Applications (VAAs) fulfill different needs for different citizens. In national elections, the majority of users can be characterized as politically sophisticated citizens who use VAAs for entertainment purposes and confirmation of their party preference, but a significant minority uses VAAs to learn about politics and make an informed vote choice. VAAs might, however, play a different role in second-order elections, since in these elections campaign dynamics and information supply are very different. In the current research, we applied latent class analysis on user data from a widely used Dutch VAA (Kieskompas) for a supranational and several subnational elections in the Netherlands, to test if an extant typology of VAA users for national elections could be replicated. We find that the typology can be replicated for most of these elections, but also that the relative size of the groups of users differs across elections; in all second-order elections except for the provincial elections, more doubters and seekers are found relative to national elections. This suggests that VAAs are likely to have stronger mobilizing potential in these second-order elections.

By analyzing the case of the 2019 European Parliament elections, the article examines the hypothesis about the second-order character of elections to the European Parliament. Moving within the theoretical framework that has been developing since the first direct EP elections in 1979, we critically examine the conditions in which the last electoral cycle took place and we look for the novelties that could have impacted the changing of this prevalent paradigm. Although we find certain changes that contribute to the 'Europeanization' of these elections, we conclude that the most previous hypotheses are still valid confirming that we are still dealing with the secondorder electoral contest. The last European Parliament elections, as well as the subsequent European chief executive election process, brought new circumstances that could even contribute to maintaining the second-order character of the EP elections., Rad nastoji da ispita tezu o drugorazrednom značaju izbora za Evropski parlament na primeru izbora iz 2019. godine. Oslanjajući se na teorijski okvir za posmatranje izbora za Evropski parlament kao drugorazredne nacionalne izborne arene, koji se razvijao od prvih neposrednih izbora 1979. godine, kritički se preispituju uslovi u kojima se odvijao poslednji izborni ciklus i novine koje su mogle uticati da se ovakva slika o izborima promeni. Autori zaključuju da je do određenih promena došlo, pre svega u pravcu "evropeizovanja" ovih izbora, međutim, da je još uvek validna većina pretpostavki da se radi o drugorazrednom izbornom takmičenju. Prilikom izbora iz 2019, kao i naknadne procedure izbora šefa izvršne vlasti Evropske unije, došlo je do novih okolnosti koje bi čak mogle i doprineti da se drugorazredni karakter izbora za Evropski parlament nastavi.

Voting Advice Applications (VAAs) fulfill different needs for different citizens. In national elections, the majority of users can be characterized as politically sophisticated citizens who use VAAs for entertainment purposes and confirmation of their party preference, but a significant minority uses VAAs to learn about politics and make an informed vote choice. VAAs might, however, play a different role in second-order elections, since in these elections campaign dynamics and information supply are very different. In the current research, we applied latent class analysis on user data from a widely used Dutch VAA (Kieskompas) for a supranational and several subnational elections in the Netherlands, to test if an extant typology of VAA users for national elections could be replicated. We find that the typology can be replicated for most of these elections, but also that the relative size of the groups of users differs across elections; in all second-order elections except for the provincial elections, more doubters and seekers are found relative to national elections. This suggests that VAAs are likely to have stronger mobilizing potential in these second-order elections.

When the voters decide their vote in Council Elections, do they thinking about the candidate or the party? Or is there any other critical variable that comes into play when deciding the vote at the local level? In this research we perform a qualitative approach to the phenomenon of sub-state voting. Although the evaluation of the candidate is a particularly important factor when deciding the vote in a Council Elections, this is not the only one and is not always the main decision element. The review of the existing theoretical framework regarding electoral behavior and the variables / dimensions that operate in the decision-making process in council elections are very limited. Therefore, we propose a case study by holding focus groups in three municipalities with different historical realities regarding the personal leadership of the candidates., Cuando los electores deciden su voto en unas Elecciones Municipales ¿lo hacen pensando en el candidato o en el partido? ¿O bien hay alguna otra variable crítica que entra en juego al decidir el voto en el ámbito local? En esta investigación realizamos una aproximación cualitativa al fenómeno del voto subestatal. Si bien la evaluación del candidato es un factor particularmente importante a la hora de decidir el voto en unas Elecciones Municipales, éste no es el único y no siempre es el principal elemento decisorio. La revisión del marco teórico existente sobre el comportamiento electoral y las variables / dimensiones que operan en el proceso decisional en Elecciones Municipales es muy escaso. Por ello planteamos un estudio de casos mediante la celebración de grupos de discusión en tres municipios con diferentes realidades históricas respecto al liderazgo personal de los candidatos.

By analyzing the case of the 2019 European Parliament elections, the article examines the hypothesis about the second-order character of elections to the European Parliament. Moving within the theoretical framework that has been developing since the first direct EP elections in 1979, we critically examine the conditions in which the last electoral cycle took place and we look for the novelties that could have impacted the changing of this prevalent paradigm. Although we find certain changes that contribute to the 'Europeanization' of these elections, we conclude that the most previous hypotheses are still valid confirming that we are still dealing with the secondorder electoral contest. The last European Parliament elections, as well as the subsequent European chief executive election process, brought new circumstances that could even contribute to maintaining the second-order character of the EP elections., Rad nastoji da ispita tezu o drugorazrednom značaju izbora za Evropski parlament na primeru izbora iz 2019. godine. Oslanjajući se na teorijski okvir za posmatranje izbora za Evropski parlament kao drugorazredne nacionalne izborne arene, koji se razvijao od prvih neposrednih izbora 1979. godine, kritički se preispituju uslovi u kojima se odvijao poslednji izborni ciklus i novine koje su mogle uticati da se ovakva slika o izborima promeni. Autori zaključuju da je do određenih promena došlo, pre svega u pravcu "evropeizovanja" ovih izbora, međutim, da je još uvek validna većina pretpostavki da se radi o drugorazrednom izbornom takmičenju. Prilikom izbora iz 2019, kao i naknadne procedure izbora šefa izvršne vlasti Evropske unije, došlo je do novih okolnosti koje bi čak mogle i doprineti da se drugorazredni karakter izbora za Evropski parlament nastavi.

When the voters decide their vote in Council Elections, do they thinking about the candidate or the party? Or is there any other critical variable that comes into play when deciding the vote at the local level? In this research we perform a qualitative approach to the phenomenon of sub-state voting. Although the evaluation of the candidate is a particularly important factor when deciding the vote in a Council Elections, this is not the only one and is not always the main decision element. The review of the existing theoretical framework regarding electoral behavior and the variables / dimensions that operate in the decision-making process in council elections are very limited. Therefore, we propose a case study by holding focus groups in three municipalities with different historical realities regarding the personal leadership of the candidates., Cuando los electores deciden su voto en unas Elecciones Municipales ¿lo hacen pensando en el candidato o en el partido? ¿O bien hay alguna otra variable crítica que entra en juego al decidir el voto en el ámbito local? En esta investigación realizamos una aproximación cualitativa al fenómeno del voto subestatal. Si bien la evaluación del candidato es un factor particularmente importante a la hora de decidir el voto en unas Elecciones Municipales, éste no es el único y no siempre es el principal elemento decisorio. La revisión del marco teórico existente sobre el comportamiento electoral y las variables / dimensiones que operan en el proceso decisional en Elecciones Municipales es muy escaso. Por ello planteamos un estudio de casos mediante la celebración de grupos de discusión en tres municipios con diferentes realidades históricas respecto al liderazgo personal de los candidatos.

Voting Advice Applications (VAAs) fulfill different needs for different citizens. In national elections, the majority of users can be characterized as politically sophisticated citizens who use VAAs for entertainment purposes and confirmation of their party preference, but a significant minority uses VAAs to learn about politics and make an informed vote choice. VAAs might, however, play a different role in second-order elections, since in these elections campaign dynamics and information supply are very different. In the current research, we applied latent class analysis on user data from a widely used Dutch VAA (Kieskompas) for a supranational and several subnational elections in the Netherlands, to test if an extant typology of VAA users for national elections could be replicated. We find that the typology can be replicated for most of these elections, but also that the relative size of the groups of users differs across elections; in all second-order elections except for the provincial elections, more doubters and seekers are found relative to national elections. This suggests that VAAs are likely to have stronger mobilizing potential in these second-order elections.

The article discusses the findings of the multilevel government school (MLG) which has been advancing since the beginning of the 21st century, studying regional elections. The concept defining regional elections as second-order elections has been recognized as critical, although it is reformulated by the MLG school to respond to changes in modern regional politics in Europe. Important recent political developments include the entrenchment of regional governments, the increase in the number of electoral appointments, expanded competencies of voters, the rise of non-state-wide parties and the empowerment of sub-national organizational levels of parties. Current MLG research focuses on identifying and explaining the cases where second-order election predictions do not appear to hold for regional elections, identifying states where it is still the case and, finally, identifying factors that increase or decrease this effect. An interesting theoretical development regarding regional elections as second-order elections is that this concept is supplemented and enriched by the theories of regional authority and territorial cleavages. The final part of the article reviews studies on regional elections and the applicability of the second-order concept to Central and Eastern European countries.

European Parliament elections create structural advantages for challenger parties. Building on the second-order elections theory, this article argues that European Parliament elections foster challenger parties' success on the national level by increasing their visibility and offering an opportunity structure for domestic politicisation of Europe. I test this proposition by exploiting the quasi-exogenous timing of European Parliament elections and the variation in national electoral cycles since 1979. A country-fixed effects model and two placebo-tests show that populist radical right parties gain momentum in the supranational contest, particularly when coinciding campaigns increase the domestic salience of Europe. Considering their antagonism to an integrative Europe, it seems ironic that the European Parliament elections foster the ascendency of just these opponents of the European idea.

Denna uppsats undersöker svenska väljare tendens att rösta med hjärtat, det vill säga närmre sina preferenser, i Europaparlamentsvalet 2014. I förhållande till den existerande litteraturen så studerar jag hur Europaparlamentsvalets "second-order"-karaktär påverkar deras val av parti i det. Hur kan man veta vad som har fått väljarna att rösta på ett visst parti? Jag har genom binär logistisk regressionsanalys i kombination med bivariat analys funnit indikationer på att väljarna tenderar att rösta med hjärtat och då efter deras preferenser på vänster-högerskalan i större utsträckning jämfört med deras syn på EU.

The article discusses the findings of the multilevel government school (MLG) which has been advancing since the beginning of the 21st century, studying regional elections. The concept defining regional elections as second-order elections has been recognized as critical, although it is reformulated by the MLG school to respond to changes in modern regional politics in Europe. Important recent political developments include the entrenchment of regional governments, the increase in the number of electoral appointments, expanded competencies of voters, the rise of non-state-wide parties and the empowerment of sub-national organizational levels of parties. Current MLG research focuses on identifying and explaining the cases where second-order election predictions do not appear to hold for regional elections, identifying states where it is still the case and, finally, identifying factors that increase or decrease this effect. An interesting theoretical development regarding regional elections as second-order elections is that this concept is supplemented and enriched by the theories of regional authority and territorial cleavages. The final part of the article reviews studies on regional elections and the applicability of the second-order concept to Central and Eastern European countries.

Denna uppsats undersöker svenska väljare tendens att rösta med hjärtat, det vill säga närmre sina preferenser, i Europaparlamentsvalet 2014. I förhållande till den existerande litteraturen så studerar jag hur Europaparlamentsvalets "second-order"-karaktär påverkar deras val av parti i det. Hur kan man veta vad som har fått väljarna att rösta på ett visst parti? Jag har genom binär logistisk regressionsanalys i kombination med bivariat analys funnit indikationer på att väljarna tenderar att rösta med hjärtat och då efter deras preferenser på vänster-högerskalan i större utsträckning jämfört med deras syn på EU.

EP elections have so far been consistently characterized as “second-order”. We hypothesize that key processes are emerging which undermine the appropriateness of this model. We argue that, as a consequence of EU policies trying to address the economic and financial crisis, a stronger politicization of Europe has emerged. Accordingly, the national consequences of EU policies have put Europe on the table of national electorates. Together, these processes may lead to an overall increase in saliency of EP elections, so we hypothesize, and to a homogenization of political competition across EU members. We explore this framework in the context of the 2009 and 2014 EP elections. In line with extant applications, we first attempt to assess the core predictions of the second-order model through tests on aggregate electoral results. We then investigate specific explanatory mechanisms for the 2014 EP elections, by relating party performance with party stance on political issues.

EP elections have so far been consistently characterized as “second-order”. We hypothesize that key processes are emerging which undermine the appropriateness of this model. We argue that, as a consequence of EU policies trying to address the economic and financial crisis, a stronger politicization of Europe has emerged. Accordingly, the national consequences of EU policies have put Europe on the table of national electorates. Together, these processes may lead to an overall increase in saliency of EP elections, so we hypothesize, and to a homogenization of political competition across EU members. We explore this framework in the context of the 2009 and 2014 EP elections. In line with extant applications, we first attempt to assess the core predictions of the second-order model through tests on aggregate electoral results. We then investigate specific explanatory mechanisms for the 2014 EP elections, by relating party performance with party stance on political issues.

EP elections have so far been consistently characterized as “second-order”. We hypothesize that key processes are emerging which undermine the appropriateness of this model. We argue that, as a consequence of EU policies trying to address the economic and financial crisis, a stronger politicization of Europe has emerged. Accordingly, the national consequences of EU policies have put Europe on the table of national electorates. Together, these processes may lead to an overall increase in saliency of EP elections, so we hypothesize, and to a homogenization of political competition across EU members. We explore this framework in the context of the 2009 and 2014 EP elections. In line with extant applications, we first attempt to assess the core predictions of the second-order model through tests on aggregate electoral results. We then investigate specific explanatory mechanisms for the 2014 EP elections, by relating party performance with party stance on political issues.

EP elections have so far been consistently characterized as “second-order”. We hypothesize that key processes are emerging which undermine the appropriateness of this model. We argue that, as a consequence of EU policies trying to address the economic and financial crisis, a stronger politicization of Europe has emerged. Accordingly, the national consequences of EU policies have put Europe on the table of national electorates. Together, these processes may lead to an overall increase in saliency of EP elections, so we hypothesize, and to a homogenization of political competition across EU members. We explore this framework in the context of the 2009 and 2014 EP elections. In line with extant applications, we first attempt to assess the core predictions of the second-order model through tests on aggregate electoral results. We then investigate specific explanatory mechanisms for the 2014 EP elections, by relating party performance with party stance on political issues.

Since the establishment of the first democratic local councils in 1979, ten municipal elections have taken place in Spain. In the few studies devoted to them, voting has habitually been explained by using national variables and following the wellknown model of second-order elections. In this paper we examine the validity of these conclusions by also considering local factors. We have estimated several hierarchical models using an ambitious datasetwhich includes both individual and contextual variables for a representative sample of Spanish municipalities between 1991 and 2011. Our empirical results are particularly interesting, with individual factors such as voters’ ideology and contextual indicators such as the unemployment rate at the municipal level having a significant impact on the probability of voting for the incumbent mayor’s party., Desde la instauración de los primeros ayuntamientos democráticos en 1979, se han celebrado diez elecciones municipales en España. En los escasos estudios dedicados a ellas, el voto ha sido habitualmente explicado recurriendo a variables de ámbito nacional según el conocido modelo de las elecciones de segundo orden. En este trabajo examinaremos la validez de estos patrones de comportamiento cuando introducimos también factores explicativos de carácter local. Para comprobarlo, hemos estimado distintos modelos multinivel utilizando una ambiciosa base de datos que contiene variables individuales y contextuales para una muestra representativa de municipios españoles entre 1991 y 2011. Los resultados son sumamente interesantes: factores individuales como la ideología de los votantes e indicadores contextuales como la tasa de desempleo a nivel municipal inciden de manera significativa en la probabilidad de votar al partido del alcalde.

The 2014 European Parliament (EP) elections took place in a very particular environment. Economic crisis, bailout packages, and austerity measures were central on the agenda in many Southern countries while open borders and intra-EU migration gained high salience elsewhere in the Union. A strong decline of political trust in European and national institutions was alarming. At the same time, the nomination and campaigning of “Spitzenkandidaten”, lead candidates of EP political groups for European Commission (EC) presidency, was meant to establish a new linkage between European Parliament elections and the (s)election of the president of the Commission. All of this might have changed the very nature of EP elections as second-order national elections. In this paper, we try to shed light on this by analysing aggregate election results, both at the country-level and at the party-level and compare them with the results of the preceding first-order national election in each EU member country. Our results suggest that the ongoing politicisation of EU politics had little impact on the second-order nature of European Parliament elections. (auhtor's abstract)

The second-order paradigm is the dominant framework for research on electoral behavior in European Parliament (EP) elections. In this study, we assess to what degree voting patterns in the 2014 EP election were characterized by secondorderness. While most studies of second-order voting behavior rely on macro-level accounts or suffer from potentially conflated vote measures, this study relies on panel data from the 2013 national and the 2014 EP election in Austria. We study change patterns in electoral behavior and, more importantly, assess the motives behind differences in vote choices between first- and second-order elections. Overall, the findings point towards a persisting relevance of the second-order framework for explaining voting in the 2014 EP election. (auhtor's abstract)

Since the establishment of the first democratic local councils in 1979, ten municipal elections have taken place in Spain. In the few studies devoted to them, voting has habitually been explained by using national variables and following the wellknown model of second-order elections. In this paper we examine the validity of these conclusions by also considering local factors. We have estimated several hierarchical models using an ambitious datasetwhich includes both individual and contextual variables for a representative sample of Spanish municipalities between 1991 and 2011. Our empirical results are particularly interesting, with individual factors such as voters’ ideology and contextual indicators such as the unemployment rate at the municipal level having a significant impact on the probability of voting for the incumbent mayor’s party., Desde la instauración de los primeros ayuntamientos democráticos en 1979, se han celebrado diez elecciones municipales en España. En los escasos estudios dedicados a ellas, el voto ha sido habitualmente explicado recurriendo a variables de ámbito nacional según el conocido modelo de las elecciones de segundo orden. En este trabajo examinaremos la validez de estos patrones de comportamiento cuando introducimos también factores explicativos de carácter local. Para comprobarlo, hemos estimado distintos modelos multinivel utilizando una ambiciosa base de datos que contiene variables individuales y contextuales para una muestra representativa de municipios españoles entre 1991 y 2011. Los resultados son sumamente interesantes: factores individuales como la ideología de los votantes e indicadores contextuales como la tasa de desempleo a nivel municipal inciden de manera significativa en la probabilidad de votar al partido del alcalde.

Since the establishment of the first democratic local councils in 1979, ten municipal elections have taken place in Spain. In the few studies devoted to them, voting has habitually been explained by using national variables and following the wellknown model of second-order elections. In this paper we examine the validity of these conclusions by also considering local factors. We have estimated several hierarchical models using an ambitious datasetwhich includes both individual and contextual variables for a representative sample of Spanish municipalities between 1991 and 2011. Our empirical results are particularly interesting, with individual factors such as voters’ ideology and contextual indicators such as the unemployment rate at the municipal level having a significant impact on the probability of voting for the incumbent mayor’s party., Desde la instauración de los primeros ayuntamientos democráticos en 1979, se han celebrado diez elecciones municipales en España. En los escasos estudios dedicados a ellas, el voto ha sido habitualmente explicado recurriendo a variables de ámbito nacional según el conocido modelo de las elecciones de segundo orden. En este trabajo examinaremos la validez de estos patrones de comportamiento cuando introducimos también factores explicativos de carácter local. Para comprobarlo, hemos estimado distintos modelos multinivel utilizando una ambiciosa base de datos que contiene variables individuales y contextuales para una muestra representativa de municipios españoles entre 1991 y 2011. Los resultados son sumamente interesantes: factores individuales como la ideología de los votantes e indicadores contextuales como la tasa de desempleo a nivel municipal inciden de manera significativa en la probabilidad de votar al partido del alcalde.

Desde la instauración de los primeros ayuntamientos democráticos en 1979, se han celebrado diez elecciones municipales en España. En los escasos estudios dedicados a ellas, el voto ha sido habitualmente explicado recurriendo a variables de ámbito nacional según el conocido modelo de las elecciones de segundo orden. En este trabajo
examinaremos la validez de estos patrones de comportamiento cuando introducimos también factores explicativos de carácter local. Para comprobarlo, hemos estimado distintos modelos multinivel utilizando una ambiciosa base de datos que contiene variables individuales y contextuales para una muestra representativa de municipios
españoles entre 1991 y 2011. Los resultados son sumamente interesantes: factores individuales como la ideología de los votantes e indicadores contextuales como la tasa de desempleo a nivel municipal inciden de manera significativa en la probabilidad de votar al partido del alcalde., Since the establishment of the first democratic local councils in 1979, ten municipal elections have taken place in Spain. In the few studies devoted to them, voting has habitually been explained by using national variables and following the well- known model of second-order elections. In this paper we examine the validity of these conclusions by also considering local factors. We have estimated several hierarchical models using an ambitious dataset which includes both individual and contextual variables for a representative sample of Spanish municipalities between 1991 and 2011. Our empirical results are particularly interesting, with individual factors such as voters’ ideology and contextual indicators such as the unemployment rate at the municipal level having a significant impact on the probability of voting for the incumbent mayor’s party.