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Soil respiration is a crucial source of carbon dioxide (CO 2) in the atmosphere. The underlying processes involved are multifaceted, sequential chemical reactions associated with the conversion of soil organic carbon to CO 2. In this paper, we present a mechanistic, biogeochemical model to simulate soil CO 2 emissions considering the microbial and sequential chemical processes using the well-established hydrological model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for the first time. The soil CO 2 emissions from multiple sequential soil chemical reactions were compared with the observed data at three sites in Canada. The results show that the modelled CO 2 emission rates are in good agreement with the observed data with performance statistics: PBIAS: 0.13%–23%; NSE: 0.27 to 0.62; RSR: 0.60 to 0.84; R2: 0.29 to 0.83. This approach could be used in future regional to global-scale models for simulating the soil CO 2 emission and hydrological processes. Image 1 • Modelling of soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition. • Soil chemical reactions modelling using microbial kinetics and thermodynamics. • Modelling of soil autotrophic respiration and soil heterotrophic respiration. • Modelling of soil CO 2 emissions using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). • Watershed-scale modelling of soil CO 2 emission using SWAT tool. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are currently at the crux of political, environmental, technological, and cultural discussions due to climate change. A drastic reduction of GHG emissions is needed in order to mitigate potentially catastrophic climate change impacts. Thus, thoroughly understanding emission sources is imperative. A disaggregated analysis of Canada’s future GHG emission projections has not yet been conducted. The objectives in this paper are to assess disaggregated GHG emissions in Canada for the years 2014, 2030, and 2050, and analyze the results through Sankey diagrams. Emissions are calculated using a bottom-up multi-regional accounting-based Long-range Energy Alternative Planning systems model. Each major economic sector in Canada is analyzed including the electricity generation, residential, commercial and institutional, industrial, transportation, and agriculture sectors. The emissions released in these sectors are traced to the resources and end-uses responsible. Results are presented for Canada and for provinces individually. GHG emissions contained in exported resources are evaluated. Results show that Canada’s business-as-usual GHG emissions will grow from 732 million tonnes in 2014 to 780 and 798 million tonnes in 2030 and 2050, respectively. Canada exports more emissions contained in resources than it emits. Per capita emissions intensity will fall by 14% between 2014 and 2050. Results are compared to climate targets and key areas of GHG mitigation potential are identified. Alberta’s oil and gas sector and Ontario’s transportation sector are the two single largest sectoral sources of emissions by 2050. This research can help policy makers, innovators, and the public better understand GHG emissions, which can lead to more effective GHG mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper tests for the applicability of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis at the Canadian and provincial/territorial levels using greenhouse gas emissions as an indicator for environmental degradation. The hypothesis is tested using provincial and territorial panel data from 1990 to 2014. The results vary depending on the econometric estimation method. The pooled regression results are mixed, with the EKC hypothesis confirmed at the Canadian level and in half of the provinces and territories. However, the fixed-effects regression results confirm the EKC hypothesis at the Canadian level and in all provinces and territories. The results also highlight the significance of technological change and province/territory specific characteristics in determining the level of greenhouse gas emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper proceeds with a discussion of the interplay of scale and intensity in determining greenhouse gas emissions. This is followed by the presentation of several macroeconomic scenarios using LowGrow, a simulation model of the Canadian economy. The scenarios considered are ‘business as usual’ which is a projection into the future of past trends, ‘selective growth’ in which differential growth rates are applied to parts of the economy according to their direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions, and ‘degrowth’ where the average GDP/capita of Canadians is reduced towards a level more consistent with a world economy the size of which respects global environmental limits. The paper ends with a comparison of the scenarios. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Based on the Web of Science Core Collection databases from 1990 to 2018, a scientometric analysis of 1,284 academic works related to forest carbon sequestration is carried out to characterize the intellectual landscape by identifying and revealing the basic characteristics, research power, intellectual base and research hotspots in this field. The results of this work show that: ① the number of publications in forest carbon sequestration research has increased rapidly and the research in this field is in its "growth stage"; Forest Ecology and Management is the most productive journal and Forestry is the most popular subject category; ② the most productive authors and institutions in this subject area are in the USA, China and Canada, with the Chinese Academy of Sciences being the key institution performing such research; ③ in the sample, 9 papers have played a key role in the evolution of the field and laid a solid foundation for future research; ④ Keyword clustering analysis showed that the main research topics in the domain of forest carbon sequestration could be summarized as: (a) temperate forest; (b) forest management; (c) uncertainty analysis; (d) forest floor; (e) REDD; (f) net primary productivity. Meanwhile, keyword bursts analysis showed that the new research hotspots or research frontiers mainly concentrated on changes in the carbon storage and carbon sequestration potential of secondary forests and tropical forests, plant litter carbon storage and contribution to total ecosystem carbon storage, and new national forest inventories (NFIs). Through in-depth analysis of forest carbon sequestration research, this paper provides a better understanding of development trends that have emerged in this field over the past 29 years, which can also offer reference for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Through tests conducted at the Toronto and Region Conservation Authority's (TRCA) Archetype Sustainable Houses, a hybrid residential space heating system with a supervisory controller was monitored and studied to evaluate its performance and effectiveness for the heating season. A high efficiency natural gas furnace (NGF) and an electric air source heat pump (ASHP) were coupled together to meet the space heating demand of the house. This integrated system is called the cloud based Smart Dual Fuel Switching System (SDFSS) that considers time-of-use (TOU) pricing, fuel cost, short-term weather forecast, and equipment efficiencies and capacities. This multi-variable decision-making process defines an optimal schedule for the hybrid system to run more cost effectively. This paper analyses two separate SDFSSs. According to these analyses, the SDFSS systems showed lower operating cost with respect to the furnace or the ASHP system alone with various carbon tax (CT) levels from $0 to $250/tonne of CT with an increment of $10/tonne of CT that were simulated, along with a significant GHG emission reduction relative to the conventional heating systems. Furthermore, with these technologies, Canada's residential sector could potentially meet Canada's Paris Agreement goals. The SDFSS technology is a is flexible, user friendly, ubiquitous technology for the smooth transition from today's natural gas dominated space heating system to the future's low carbon infrastructure powered by a heat pump and renewable energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The Government of Canada, like many others around the world, has given much importance to biofuels to address some of its policy challenges: climate change and diversification of energy supply. To deal with the emissions, the Government plans to increase production and use of ethanol. This will have impacts on the Canadian economy. An input–output model of the Canadian economy is developed to estimate the macroeconomic impacts of the Ethanol production in Canada. Several modifications have been made in the Use and Make matrix of Canada, 2003. To consider biofuel sector in the Make and Use table of Canada 2003 we have included two new industries – biofuel and E10. The four new commodities have been entered in the list – ethanol, E10, DDG and CO2. The impact matrix is estimated from an input–output model that computes the direct plus indirect impacts on the Canadian economy, 2003. This model has been closed to the household sector in the economy by endogenizing this sector into the model. Various multipliers have also been estimated. A number of simulation exercises have also been attempted to study the implications of policies to reach the Kyoto target of Canada. Results show that the macroeconomic impact of ethanol sector leads to increase in industrial output and employment. The agriculture sector makes necessary adjustments to meet the demand for ethanol product. The petroleum industry is also going to be affected. The paper concludes with several policy suggestions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The objective of this paper is to assess the economic impacts of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by decreasing industrial output in Canada to a level that will meet the target set out in the Kyoto Protocol. The study uses an ecological–economic Input–Output model combining economic components valued in monetary terms with ecologic components – GHG emissions – expressed in physical terms. Economic and greenhouse gas emissions data for Canada are computed in the same sectoral disaggregation. Three policy scenarios are considered: the first one uses the direct emission coefficients to allocate the reduction in industrial output, while the other two use the direct plus indirect emission coefficients. In the first two scenarios, the reduction in industrial sector output is allocated uniformly across sectors while it is allocated to the 12 largest emitting industries in the last one. The estimated impacts indicate that the results vary with the different allocation methods. The third policy scenario, allocation to the 12 largest emitting sectors, is the most cost effective of the three as the impacts of the Kyoto Protocol reduces Gross Domestic Product by 3.1% compared to 24% and 8.1% in the first two scenarios. Computed economic costs should be considered as upper-bounds because the model assumes immediate adjustment to the Kyoto Protocol and because flexibility mechanisms are not incorporated. The resulting upper-bound impact of the third scenario may seem to contradict those who claim that the Kyoto Protocol would place an unbearable burden on the Canadian economy. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Patterns of coastal erosion in the Arctic differ dramatically from those coasts in more temperate environments. Thick sea ice and shore-fast ice limit wave-based erosional processes to a brief open water season, however despite this, permafrost coasts containing massive ice, ice wedges and ice-bonded sediments tend to experience high rates of erosion. These high rates of erosion reflect the combined thermal–mechanical processes of thawing permafrost, melting ground ice, and wave action. Climate change in the Arctic is expected to result in increased rates of coastal erosion due to warming permafrost, increasing active layer depths and thermokarst, rising sea levels, reduction in sea ice extent and duration, and increasing storm impacts. With the most ice-rich permafrost in the Canadian Arctic, the southern Beaufort Sea coast between the Tuktoyaktuk Peninsula and the Alaskan border is subject to high rates of erosion and retrogressive thaw slump activity. Under many climate change scenarios this area is also predicted to experience the greatest warming in the Canadian Arctic. This paper presents results of a remote sensing study on the long-term patterns of coastal erosion and retrogressive thaw slump activity for Herschel Island in the northern Yukon Territory. Using orthorectified airphotos from 1952 and 1970 and an Ikonos image from 2000 corrected with control points collected by kinematic differential global positioning system and processed using softcopy photogrammetric tools, mean coastal retreat rates of 0.61 m/yr and 0.45 m/yr were calculated for the periods 1952–1970 and 1970–2000, respectively. The highest coastal retreat rates are on north–west facing shorelines which correspond to the main direction of storm-related wave attack. During the period 1970–2000 coastal retreat rates for south to south–east facing shorelines displayed a distinct increase even though these are the most sheltered orientations. However, south to south–east facing shorelines correspond to the orientations where the highest densities of retrogressive thaw slumps are observed. Differences in rates of headwall retreat of retrogressive thaw slumps and coastal erosion results in the formation of larger thermokarst scars and the development of polycyclic thaw slumps on south to south–east exposures. The number and the total area of retrogressive thaw slumps increased by 125% and 160%, respectively, between 1952 and 2000. As well, the proportion of active retrogressive thaw slumps increased dramatically. Polycyclic retrogressive thaw slumps appear to develop in a periodic fashion, related to retrogressive thaw slump stage and maximum inland extent. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Recently, it has been recognized that large lakes exert considerable influence on regional climate systems and vice versa and that the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM), which does not currently have a lake component, requires the development of a coupled lake sub-model. Prior to a full effort for this model development, however, studies are needed to select and assess the suitability of a lake hydrodynamic model in terms of its capability to couple with the CRCM. This paper evaluates the performance of the 3-dimensional hydrodynamic model ELCOM on Great Slave Lake, one of Canada''s largest lakes in the northern climatic system. Model simulations showed dominant circulation patterns that can create relatively large spatial and temporal gradients in temperature. Simulated temperatures compared well with cross-lake temperature observations both at the surface and vertically. Sensitivity analysis was applied to determine the critical meteorological variables affecting simulations of temperature and surface heat fluxes. For example, a 10% increase in air temperature and solar radiation was found to result in a 3. 1% and 8. 3% increase in water surface temperature and 8. 5% increase in latent heat flux. Knowledge of the model sensitivity is crucial for future research in which the hydrodynamic model coupled with the atmosphere will be forced from the CRCM output. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper describes our preliminary assessment of the system requirements (data, interface and process) for implementation of terms describing lake effects in the Canadian Regional Climate Model. We demonstrate test results for one-dimensional (1-D) and three-dimensional (3-D) models for lake hydrodynamics that have been tested and prepared for interfacing with atmospheric circulation models. We discuss the use of a physical interface model, Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS), that is under consideration for the air–water interface. Our preliminary assessment indicates that it is technically feasible to apply the combination of small shallow lake (slab) model, 1-dimensional vertical model and 3-dimensional circulation model (for very large lakes), together with the current land–air linkage used in regional climate modelling in Canada. Whether we can discern the necessary conditions for invoking each of the models to the lakes present in individual regional climate grid cells is still to be determined. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Finding sustainable pathways to efficiently allocate limited available water resources among increasingly competing water uses has become crucial due to climate-change-induced water shortages and increasing water demand. This has led to an urgent need for the inclusion of economic principles, models, and methods in water resources management. Although several studies have developed macro-economic models to evaluate the economic impacts of alternative water allocation strategies, many if not most ignore the hydrological boundaries of transboundary river basins. Furthermore, of those using input-output (IO) models, only a handful have applied supply-side IO models. In this paper, we present one of the first attempts to develop an inter-regional, supply-side IO modelling framework for a multi-jurisdictional, transboundary river basin to assess the direct and indirect economic impacts of water supply restrictions due to climate and policy change. Applying this framework to the Saskatchewan River Basin in Canada encompassing three provinces, we investigate the economic impacts of two different water supply restriction scenarios on the entire river basin and its sub-basins individually. We find that in the face of climate-change-induced water shortage, economic losses can be reduced by almost 50% by adopting appropriate management practices, including prioritization of water allocation, using alternative water sources, and water re-use technologies. • Sectoral water use is incorporated into a supply-side input-output model. • The model is spatially disaggregated into 6 sub-basins across 3 Canadian provinces. • The model evaluates the economic impacts of alternative water allocation policies. • The model results assist policymakers prepare efficient water management plans. • Adopting proper policies, potential economic drought losses can be reduced by 50%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Situated within the broader climate justice movement, the fossil fuel divestment movement calls for both public and private divestment of financial holdings from fossil fuel companies. This paper examines the extent of fossil fuel divestment campaigns at higher education institutions across Canada, examining key actions and tactics through which campaigns are initiated and mobilized, as led by students, faculty, alumni, and climate justice organizations. Findings indicate that out of 220 accredited Canadian universities and colleges, there are 38 active divestment campaigns and 6 institutions that have committed to varying degrees of divestment. Tactics used in these campaigns include signing of petitions, sit-ins, rallies, and protests, facilitated through face-to-face and online platforms. Findings revealed significant borrowing of actions and tactics among campaign actors, including the use of branding and messaging from international environmental organizations, such as 350.org. This research contributes to scholarly knowledge on how higher education divestment movements and related campaigns for institutional change can influence how sustainability and climate change are addressed. Actors can build on this knowledge to develop sustained collaborative systems to address current and future challenges across institutions and in society at large. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]