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Most analyses of electoral support of third parties consider the correlates of this support at election time. Existing explanations of support for smaller third parties focus on voter distrust of/alienation from major parties, lack of/declining identification with a major party and the strategic calculations voters who fail to vote sincerely. The focus on election time support of third parties can mask theoretically interesting and important dynamics that may characterize trends in support for such parties between elections. This paper develops a dynamic model of electoral support for the New Democratic Party (NDP): a small, ideological third party in Canada. Espousing a social democratic ethos, the NDP serves as a classic example of a small, ideologically-committed third party.The analysis considers the extent to which two types of factors explain trends in electoral support for the NDP: economic conditions and strategic calculations. The economic voting literature finds that incumbent support is influenced by economic conditions in a reward-punishment fashion. While deteriorating economic conditions may undermine incumbent support, it may also be the case that these same conditions strengthen support for small, non-governing parties such as the NDP. In particular, because the NDP is a left-wing party, it is expected that support will be prominently influenced by changes in the unemployment rate. Secondly, a variation of the strategic vote theorem is considered. Specifically, the hypothesis is that NDP support is a function of time elapsed from the previous federal election and expected time to the next federal election. As a result, it is expected that NDP support will be greatest at the projected midpoint between federal elections because the costs of expressing a sincere electoral preference are lowest at this point.The proposed paper develops a time series analysis using quarterly economic and vote intention data from 1977-2001. Results indicate support for both of the central propositions of the paper. Findings will be discussed in light of contributions to comparatively understanding electoral support for third parties. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There has been a notable secular decline in turnout in Canada in recent elections, but there has been little research to date on the partisan consequences of that decline. In this paper, we simulate various turnout rates in the 1997 Canadian national election in Quebec and the rest of Canada based on probabilities derived from multinomial logit estimates. In Quebec, higher turnout is associated with greater support for the Bloc Quebecois and weaker support for the Liberals. In the rest of Canada, higher turnout is associated with greater support for the Liberals and weaker support for Reform. Support for the NDP and the Progressive Conservatives is not significantly affected across broad ranges in turnout rates. We interpret these results as support for the conventional wisdom of turnout’s effects on partisan outcomes, and believe that our methodology offers the opportunity to investigate the probable effect of turnout on partisan outcomes in a variety of electoral contexts where survey data are available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in the intensity of party competition drive changes in voter turnout, especially among young voters. The basic proposition has been established for elections in general (Franklin 2004) and for Canadian elections in particular (Johnston, Matthews and Bittner 2005). The details of the relationship, however, remain murky. Two related questions stand out. First, what mechanism links electoral competitiveness to the individual voter's turnout propensity? Strategic mobilization of supporters by parties and candidates seems a likely suspect (Rosenstone and Hansen 1993), but there is also evidence that voters take cues from competitive conditions directly (Cox and Munger 1989). Second, what rendering of electoral competitiveness in spatial and temporal terms is most relevant to variation in turnout? Previous work on Canadian elections has relied exclusively on contemporaneous measures of riding-level turnout (Endersby, Galatas and Rackaway 2002; Johnston, Matthews and Bittner 2005). What happens if we introduce measures aggregated to the province or nation and consider lags of electoral competitiveness?This paper addresses these questions through investigation of the spatial and temporal dimensions of competitiveness effects on turnout. The data for the analysis combines five waves of the Canadian Election Study (1988 to 2004) with indicators of electoral competitiveness measured at multiple geographical levels (riding, province, nation) and time points (current election, previous election). This multidimensional treatment not only speaks to the when and where of competitiveness, but also permits inferences about the mechanism(s) of the variable's impact on turnout. Current riding-level effects, for instance, imply an important role for the organizational efforts of parties, as an individual-level account of the relationship entails heroic assumptions about voter information. Lagged province-level effects, by contrast,are quite compatible with the low-information psychology of the typical voter. The analysis has payoffs both theoretical and practical. On the theoretical side, the paper promises to help sort out alternative accounts of the relationship between turnout and competitiveness, at the same time as it pushes the conceptual boundaries of competitiveness itself. On the practical side, the paper continues to illuminate the story of Canadian turnout decline, including treatment of the 2004 election. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers information on consistency of identification of political parties in Canada. Topics discussed include dependency on election results to measure partisan consistency, usage of Canadian survey data to measure partisan consistency and comparison of party identification and other ideological component across election cycles.

Non-election day voting is an increasingly important part of the Canadian electoral process. NED voters made the difference in a dozen ridings in 2004. This paper examines the dimensions of this trend and implications for electoral politics. ..PAT.-Conference Proceeding [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article elaborates a rationale from which party identification is seen as a hindrance to rational behavior. Hypotheses are tested in the context of the 1988 Canadian federal election. Different measures of a rational vote choice are considered. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Immigrants in Canada do not always vote Liberal. Analysis of a large sample survey taken during the 2006 election suggests immigrants are prone to vote for whichever party seems regionally dominant to express inclusion within mainstream society. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2004, election turnout rates in the United States and Canada started to converge, in part due to an increase in interest which led to higher turnout in the United States, and in part due to a generational-induced decline in turnout in Canada. Based on the theory that higher rates of participation are commonly associated with lower socioeconomic bias in participation (Lijphart, APSR 1997), I will use National Election Studies data from both countries to examine whether the recent changes in turnout levels have resulted in lower turnout bias in the United States and higher turnout bias in Canada (using standard SES variables). Possible partisan consequences will be discussed. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

I examine advance voting in the 2004 Canadian election. Advance voters differ from normal voters, and some parties do better than others in advance voting. But, advance voting success does not predict victory and likely does not change outcomes. ..PAT.-Conference Proceeding [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]