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Since the first autochthonous transmission of West Nile Virus was detected in Germany (WNV) in 2018, it has become endemic in several parts of the country and is continuing to spread due to the attainment of a suitable environment for vector occurrence and pathogen transmission. Increasing temperature associated with a changing climate has been identified as a potential driver of mosquito-borne disease in temperate regions. This scenario justifies the need for the development of a spatially and temporarily explicit model that describes the dynamics of WNV transmission in Germany. In this study, we developed a process-based mechanistic epidemic model driven by environmental and epidemiological data. Functional traits of mosquitoes and birds of interest were used to parameterize our compartmental model appropriately. Air temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity were the key climatic forcings used to replicate the fundamental niche responsible for supporting mosquito population and infection transmission risks in the study area. An inverse calibration method was used to optimize our parameter selection. Our model was able to generate spatially and temporally explicit basic reproductive number (R0) maps showing dynamics of the WNV occurrences across Germany, which was strongly associated with the deviation from daily means of climatic forcings, signaling the impact of a changing climate in vector-borne disease dynamics. Epidemiological data for human infections sourced from Robert Koch Institute and animal cases collected from the Animal Diseases Information System (TSIS) of the Friedrich-Loeffler-Institute were used to validate model-simulated transmission rates. From our results, it was evident that West Nile Virus is likely to spread towards the western parts of Germany with the rapid attainment of environmental suitability for vector mosquitoes and amplifying host birds, especially short-distance migratory birds. Locations with high risk of WNV outbreak (Baden-Württemberg, Bavaria, Berlin, Brandenburg, Hamburg, North Rhine-Westphalia, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saarland, Saxony-Anhalt and Saxony) were shown on R0maps. This study presents a path for developing an early warning system for vector-borne diseases driven by climate change.

International agreements require a substantial expansion of the protected area network by 2030 to halt biodiversity loss and to safeguard the functioning and services of ecosystems for mankind. Considering current biodiversity strategies and international guidelines, we discuss specific constraints and options in Central European landscape matrices. As time is short, concepts and criteria for the extension of protected areas are urgently needed. The increasing free availability of geoinformation, data on species distributions, biogeographic modelling approaches, and remote sensing enable more efficient designs of sustainable networks that are more likely to cope with the ongoing and expected environmental changes compared to the current situation. Criteria for decision making processes are suggested. The integration of new subjects of protection, such as the water, nutrient, and carbon cycles, promise higher acceptance in the population when new protected areas are designated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the light of unprecedented planetary changes in biodiversity, real-time and accurate ecosystem and biodiversity assessments are becoming increasingly essential for informing policy and sustainable development. Biodiversity monitoring is a challenge, especially for large areas such as entire continents. Nowadays, spaceborne and airborne sensors provide information that incorporate wavelengths that cannot be seen nor imagined with the human eye. This is also now accomplished at unprecedented spatial resolutions, defined by the pixel size of images, achieving less than a meter for some satellite images and just millimeters for airborne imagery. Thanks to different modeling techniques, it is now possible to study functional diversity changes over different spatial and temporal scales. At the heart of this unifying framework are the “spectral species”—sets of pixels with a similar spectral signal—and their variability over space. The aim of this paper is to summarize the power of remote sensing for directly estimating plant species diversity, particularly focusing on the spectral species concept.

Protected areas (PAs) are aimed to hold the environmental conditions that facilitate species and ecosystems to persist. PAs can become climatically unsuitable and unable to sustain their current number of species under climate change. The Natura 2000 (N2K) is the largest coordinated conservation tool assigned to maintain the long-term survival of Europe’s most significant species and habitats. In attempting to understand the effectiveness of PAs in the face of climate change scenarios, we tested two hypotheses: (1) PAs in the Alpine and the Boreal biogeographical regions will experience more newly emerged climate conditions (hotter and drier) compared to the climate representation of other biogeographical regions under future climate in Europe and (2) PAs in the Mediterranean and the Continental biogeographical regions will face more consistency in climate conditions due to less area of disappearing and novel climate in future. Current climate data (1960–1990) and projections for 2050 and 2070 of PAs of N2K were extracted from WorldClim global climate data. Principal components analysis (PCA) was performed to construct climate space for the PAs across the biogeographical regions based on 19 climatic variables assessed at 5-km resolution. ArcMap 10.1 was used to map the location of the novel and disappearing climates. PAs in the Alpine region will experience more novel climate conditions in the future compared to other biogeographical regions. The future projections showed that 17.70% of the PAs in the Alpine region will experience novel climate by 2070. Considerable climate consistency was observed in the PAs in the Continental region compared to the other biogeographical regions. Our results showed that about 176 km2of the selected PAs in the Continental region will face new emerging climate, while about 110 km2will disappear under RCP 8.5 scenario. The prediction also revealed that in the Mediterranean region 08 PAs will experience novel climate and 786 km2areas in these PAs will face disappearing climate by 2070. We found that fewer areas of PAs in the Boreal regions will experience disappearing climate in both the scenarios. The portion of novel climate conditions can be seen as a future opportunity to assign new reserves for the species. Our study highlights the importance of conservation planning to increase the connectivity between PAs, identifying novel conservation zones to maximize representation of habitats during the emerging climatic changes as well as designing strategies, management, and monitoring of the individual PAs.

Mosquito-borne diseases are on the rise globally. Besides invasion processes and the increasing connectivity between distant regions through the trade of goods and human mobility, climate change is seen as an important driver for changing the likelihood of occurrence of vectors and diseases, respectively. Ectothermic insects respond directly to thermal conditions and thus we can expect them to follow climatic trends. However, a variety of species and different stages in their life cycles need to be considered. Here, we review the current literature in this field and disentangle the state of knowledge and the challenges and open questions for future research. The integration of diurnal temperature ranges in prospective experimental studies will strongly improve the knowledge of mosquitoes’ ecology and mosquito-borne disease transmission for temperate regions in particular. In addition, invasive mosquitoes are known to rapidly adapt to the climatic conditions, but the underlying processes are not yet fully understood.

Global climate change is projected to increase temperature and alter precipitation pattern, which could affect grassland ecosystem. Long-term observation at a field experiment can be a powerful approach to explore the impacts of climate change on biomass productivity in grassland. In attempting to understand how climatic variability regulates biomass productivity, we analyzed long-term records of temperature and precipitation to examine how variation of temperature and precipitation across 19 years affect biomass productivity. We established the experiment with 64 plots in two blocks and planted 31 species in 30 different mixtures. We harvested aboveground biomass twice a year, sorted biomass by functional groups, and weighed dry biomass. The site was mown after each harvest. We did not apply any fertilizer and water. Using linear regression model, we examined the influences of growing season temperature and precipitation on biomass productivity. The results showed that aboveground biomass productivity in September and annual were significantly increased in post-drought (2003–2015). The relationships of aboveground biomass productivity with growing season precipitation were significantly positive. The results showed that aboveground biomass productivity in June and annual were sensitive to growing season temperature. The relationships of aboveground biomass productivity of the functional group of grasses with early growing season temperature were significantly negative. Early growing season precipitation had a significant positive effect on aboveground biomass productivity of the functional groups of grasses and legumes. Post-drought aboveground biomass productivity of the functional groups of grasses in June and September were declined, whereas legumes significantly increased, which suggests that the role of dominant grasses may shift by legumes with global climate change. Our results highlight that early and late growing temperature and precipitation variability may reduce the aboveground biomass productivity in grassland. Our study implies that the combination of several functional groups is essential for the maintenance of stable productivity in temperate grassland ecosystem.

Biodiversity monitoring is an almost inconceivable challenge at the scale of the entire Earth. The current (and soon to be flown) generation of spaceborne and airborne optical sensors (i.e., imaging spectrometers) can collect detailed information at unprecedented spatial, temporal, and spectral resolutions. These new data streams are preceded by a revolution in modeling and analytics that can utilize the richness of these datasets to measure a wide range of plant traits, community composition, and ecosystem functions. At the heart of this framework for monitoring plant biodiversity is the idea of remotely identifying species by making use of the ‘spectral species’ concept. In theory, the spectral species concept can be defined as a species characterized by a unique spectral signature and thus remotely detectable within pixel units of a spectral image. In reality, depending on spatial resolution, pixels may contain several species which renders species‐specific assignment of spectral information more challenging. The aim of this paper is to review the spectral species concept and relate it to underlying ecological principles, while also discussing the complexities, challenges and opportunities to apply this concept given current and future scientific advances in remote sensing. Biodiversity monitoring based on field data is almost inconceivable at the scale of the entire Earth. Over the past decades, remote sensing has opened possibilities for Earth observation from air and space, allowing us to monitor ecological change, primarily expressed by changes in vegetation cover, distribution, and functioning, which can be subsequently linked to drivers of change in space and time, from local to global scale. Recently, the spectral species concept—an algorithm that clusterizes pixels from spectral images having a similar spectral signal (referred to as ‘spectral species’)—has brought attention. The aim of this paper is to review the ecological functioning principles of the spectral species concept and to refine its definition by a better linkage with field observations of plant species distribution data (i.e., presence‐absence data) available from vegetation surveys. Remote sensing has opened possibilities for Earth observation from air and space, allowing us to monitor ecological changeBiodiversity monitoring based on field data is almost inconceivable at the scale of the entire EarthThe spectral species concept, relating field to remotely sensed data, can open new ways to measure diversity from space Remote sensing has opened possibilities for Earth observation from air and space, allowing us to monitor ecological change Biodiversity monitoring based on field data is almost inconceivable at the scale of the entire Earth The spectral species concept, relating field to remotely sensed data, can open new ways to measure diversity from space

AbstractNovel disturbance regimes (e.g., introduced herbivores and fire) are among the major drivers of degradation in island ecosystems. High-elevation ecosystems (HEEs) on islands might be especially vulnerable to these disturbances due to high endemism. Here, data from an 11-year exclosure experiment in the HEE of La Palma (Canary Islands) are presented where mammalian herbivores have been introduced. We investigate the combined effect of herbivory and fire on total species richness, seedling richness, and seedling establishment on the whole system and a subset of highly endangered species (target species). Total species richness, seedling species richness, and seedling establishment decreased with herbivory. Five out of eight target species were exclusively found inside the exclosures indicating the negative impact of introduced herbivores on endemic high elevation flora. Target species were generally affected more negatively by introduced herbivores and were subject to significantly higher browsing pressure, probably owing to their lack of defense strategies. A natural wildfire that occurred six years before data sampling substantially increased total species richness and seedling richness in both herbivory exclosure and reference conditions. We conclude that species composition of the HEE has been severely altered by the introduction of non-native herbivores, even though fire seems to have a positive effect on this system.

Climate change is increasingly affecting organisms and ecosystems. The amount of research and the number of articles in this field is overwhelming. However, single studies necessarily consider limited aspects. Hence, there is an increasing need for structuring the research approaches and findings in climate change research in order to direct future action in an efficient way towards research gaps and areas of uncertainty. Here, we review the current state of knowledge accumulated over the last 10 years (2003–2012) about impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems. Almost 1,200 articles of the scientific literature listed in the ISI Web of Science are analysed. We explore the geographical distribution of knowledge gain, the studied taxonomic groups, ecosystems and environmental parameters as well as the applied methods. Several knowledge gaps arise. Most of the first authors of the analysed articles are residents of North America, Australia or Europe. A similar pattern is found for the study areas. Vascular plants and therewith forests are the most studied taxonomic group and ecosystem. The use of models to estimate potential impacts of climate change is well established in climate change impact research and is continuously developing. However, there is a lack of empirical data derived from experimental climate change simulations. In a rapidly evolving research landscape, this review aims at providing an overview of the current patterns of knowledge distribution and research demands arising from knowledge gaps and biases. Our results should help to identify future research needs and priorities.

The occurrence of ectotherm disease vectors outside of their previous distribution area and the emergence of vector-borne diseases can be increasingly observed at a global scale and are accompanied by a growing number of studies which investigate the vast range of determining factors and their causal links. Consequently, a broad span of scientific disciplines is involved in tackling these complex phenomena. First, we evaluate the citation behaviour of relevant scientific literature in order to clarify the question “do scientists consider results of other disciplines to extend their expertise?” We then highlight emerging tools and concepts useful for risk assessment. Correlative models (regression-based, machine-learning and profile techniques), mechanistic models (basic reproduction number R0) and methods of spatial regression, interaction and interpolation are described. We discuss further steps towards multidisciplinary approaches regarding new tools and emerging concepts to combine existing approaches such as Bayesian geostatistical modelling, mechanistic models which avoid the need for parameter fitting, joined correlative and mechanistic models, multi-criteria decision analysis and geographic profiling. We take the quality of both occurrence data for vector, host and disease cases, and data of the predictor variables into consideration as both determine the accuracy of risk area identification. Finally, we underline the importance of multidisciplinary research approaches. Even if the establishment of communication networks between scientific disciplines and the share of specific methods is time consuming, it promises new insights for the surveillance and control of vector-borne diseases worldwide.

Ursprünglich wurde die Theorie der Inselbiogeographie entwickelt um zu ermitteln, wie sich die Größe von Inseln und ihre Entfernung vom Festland auf ihre Artenzahl und ‐zusammensetzung auswirken. Mittlerweile wurde diese Theorie ein wichtiges Konzept im Natur‐ und Artenschutz. Organismen, die auf Inseln gelangen, neigen im Laufe der Evolution aus unterschiedlichen Gründen entweder zur Verzwergung oder zur Ausbildung von Riesenformen. Obwohl Inseln dem ständigen Prozess des Entstehens und Vergehens unterliegen, stellen sie dennoch eine dauerhafte Erscheinung auf der Erde dar, weshalb sie auch besondere Bedeutung für Evolutionsprozesse besitzen. Heute kommt genetischen Analysen bei der Entschlüsselung der Besiedlungsgeschichte von Inseln ein hoher Stellenwert zu. Inseln stellen oft Orte mit hohem Anteil von endemischen Arten dar, die durch die Einbringung gebietsfremder Arten zunehmend in ihrer Existenz bedroht sind.

Evidence suggests that the expected increase in frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events during climate change will alter plant productivity. Therefore, extreme weather events might also be capable of changing C sequestration and allocation. Here, experimental grassland communities of two species compositions, differing in their diversity, were exposed either to a simulated single drought or to a heavyrainfall event. The magnitude of these manipulations imitated the local 100year weather extreme according to extremevalue statistics. Effects on Net Ecosystem CO2Exchange NEE in µmol m–2s–1 as well as aboveground biomass production and leafarea index LAI were recorded from prior to the manipulations until two months after the manipulations ended. Initial light utilization efficiency and maximum NEE increased after the drought. No change in the respiration was detected and maximum uptake capacity GPPmax was 15 higher for the droughtmanipulated plots compared to controls, which indicates an enhanced CO2uptake into the systems. The level of diversity was also found to alter the lightresponse curves, increasing respiration and maximum NEE to a higher degree than drought in the more diverse compared to the less diverse community. This resulted in an increase of GPPmaxby 55. No significant interactions between species composition and weather manipulations were detected. Interestingly, aboveground biomass production was not significantly affected by weather manipulations, even though LAI increased due to drought. This increase was caused by a decrease in the ratio between reproductive and vegetative growth. The heavyrainfall manipulation resulted in no significant effects. Our data suggest that C sequestration can be enhanced by a single weather event. However the importance, longterm duration, and thresholds or turning points of such effects need to be investigated further as intensification of weather extremes is currently emerging as one of the most important facets of climate change.

The spring catchment under study is underlain by shale, on which several layers of slope sediments (cover-beds) are deposited. The upper of these layers contain eolian fines mixed into shale-derived debris, which latter material entirely comprises the basal cover-bed. Due to its dislocation by solifluction, the shale debris has a tegular structure. This leads to hydraulic anisotropy, particularly where no fine earth occurs. Thus, water that seeps into such material is forced to flow laterally while vertical movement is impeded. The basal cover-bed therefore hosts a deep aquifer. Only during major discharge events, excess hydrostatic pressure makes water flow into upper parts of the soils, being mixed with surficially interflowing water. Most of the time, however, there are two levels of water flow at different depths with different dwelling times, which finding is supported by probably geogenic sulphur isotopes in the deeply flowing water that are different from precipitation water. Kurzfassung Das bearbeitete Quelleinzugsgebiet liegt in Tonschiefer, welcher mit Deckschichten bedeckt ist. In die oberen Deckschichten wurde Löß eingearbeitet, während die untere ausschließlich aus umgelagertem Anstehenden besteht. Dieses Material wurde solifluidal verlagert und dabei mit einer dachziegelartigen Struktur abgelagert. Diese führt zu hydraulischer Anisotropie besonders in feinerdearmen Schichten. Wasser, das darin einsickert, fließt bevorzugt lateral, während vertikale Bewegungen stark behindert werden. Deshalb ist in der Basislage ein tieferes Aquifer entstanden. Während ausgeprägter Abflußereignisse wird der Überdruck darin jedoch so groß, daß es zu einem Aufpressen des Wasser in hangende Schichten und dort zur Vermischung mit höherem Zwischenabfluß kommt. Zumeist aber gibt es zwei unterschiedliche Interflow-Stockwerke in verschiedenen Tiefen. Dies wird bestätigt durch eine wahrscheinlich geogene Sulfatbeimischung im tieferen Stockwerk, die sich vom Niederschlagswasser in den Isotopen unterscheidet.

In the original publication of this article (Nila & Hossain, 2019), co-authors ‘Carl Beierkuhnlein, Anja Jaeschke and Samuel Hoffmann’ need to be added to the author list.