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The COVID-19 pandemic underscored the promise of monoclonal antibody-based prophylactic and therapeutic drugs1–3and revealed how quickly viral escape can curtail effective options4,5. When the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant emerged in 2021, many antibody drug products lost potency, including Evusheld and its constituent, cilgavimab4–6. Cilgavimab, like its progenitor COV2-2130, is a class 3 antibody that is compatible with other antibodies in combination4and is challenging to replace with existing approaches. Rapidly modifying such high-value antibodies to restore efficacy against emerging variants is a compelling mitigation strategy. We sought to redesign and renew the efficacy of COV2-2130 against Omicron BA.1 and BA.1.1 strains while maintaining efficacy against the dominant Delta variant. Here we show that our computationally redesigned antibody, 2130-1-0114-112, achieves this objective, simultaneously increases neutralization potency against Delta and subsequent variants of concern, and provides protection in vivo against the strains tested: WA1/2020, BA.1.1 and BA.5. Deep mutational scanning of tens of thousands of pseudovirus variants reveals that 2130-1-0114-112 improves broad potency without increasing escape liabilities. Our results suggest that computational approaches can optimize an antibody to target multiple escape variants, while simultaneously enriching potency. Our computational approach does not require experimental iterations or pre-existing binding data, thus enabling rapid response strategies to address escape variants or lessen escape vulnerabilities.

SARS-CoV-2 variants acquire mutations in the spike protein that promote immune evasion1and affect other properties that contribute to viral fitness, such as ACE2 receptor binding and cell entry2,3. Knowledge of how mutations affect these spike phenotypes can provide insight into the current and potential future evolution of the virus. Here we use pseudovirus deep mutational scanning4to measure how more than 9,000 mutations across the full XBB.1.5 and BA.2 spikes affect ACE2 binding, cell entry or escape from human sera. We find that mutations outside the receptor-binding domain (RBD) have meaningfully affected ACE2 binding during SARS-CoV-2 evolution. We also measure how mutations to the XBB.1.5 spike affect neutralization by serum from individuals who recently had SARS-CoV-2 infections. The strongest serum escape mutations are in the RBD at sites 357, 420, 440, 456 and 473; however, the antigenic effects of these mutations vary across individuals. We also identify strong escape mutations outside the RBD; however, many of them decrease ACE2 binding, suggesting they act by modulating RBD conformation. Notably, the growth rates of human SARS-CoV-2 clades can be explained in substantial part by the measured effects of mutations on spike phenotypes, suggesting our data could enable better prediction of viral evolution.

The protective efficacy of serum antibodies results from the interplay of antigen-specific B cell clones of different affinities and specificities. These cellular dynamics underlie serum-level phenomena such as original antigenic sin (OAS)—a proposed propensity of the immune system to rely repeatedly on the first cohort of B cells engaged by an antigenic stimulus when encountering related antigens, in detriment to the induction of de novo responses1–5. OAS-type suppression of new, variant-specific antibodies may pose a barrier to vaccination against rapidly evolving viruses such as influenza and SARS-CoV-26,7. Precise measurement of OAS-type suppression is challenging because cellular and temporal origins cannot readily be ascribed to antibodies in circulation; its effect on subsequent antibody responses therefore remains unclear5,8. Here we introduce a molecular fate-mapping approach with which serum antibodies derived from specific cohorts of B cells can be differentially detected. We show that serum responses to sequential homologous boosting derive overwhelmingly from primary cohort B cells, while later induction of new antibody responses from naive B cells is strongly suppressed. Such ‘primary addiction’ decreases sharply as a function of antigenic distance, allowing reimmunization with divergent viral glycoproteins to produce de novo antibody responses targeting epitopes that are absent from the priming variant. Our findings have implications for the understanding of OAS and for the design and testing of vaccines against evolving pathogens.

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1)-neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) that prevent infection are the main goal of HIV vaccine discovery. But as no nAb-eliciting vaccines are yet available, only data from HIV-1 neutralizers—persons with HIV-1 who naturally develop broad and potent nAbs—can inform about the dynamics and durability of nAb responses in humans, knowledge which is crucial for the design of future HIV-1 vaccine regimens. To address this, we assessed HIV-1-neutralizing immunoglobulin G (IgG) from 2,354 persons with HIV-1 on or off antiretroviral therapy (ART). Infection with non-clade B viruses, CD4+T cell counts <200 µl−1, being off ART and a longer time off ART were independent predictors of a more potent and broad neutralization. In longitudinal analyses, we found nAb half-lives of 9.3 and 16.9 years in individuals with no- or low-level viremia, respectively, and 4.0 years in persons who newly initiated ART. Finally, in a potent HIV-1 neutralizer, we identified lower fractions of serum nAbs and of nAb-encoding memory B cells after ART initiation, suggesting that a decreasing neutralizing serum activity after antigen withdrawal is due to lower levels of nAbs. These results collectively show that HIV-1-neutralizing responses can persist for several years, even at low antigen levels, suggesting that an HIV-1 vaccine may elicit a durable nAb response.

We describe the molecular-level composition of polyclonal immunoglobulin G (IgG) anti-spike antibodies from ancestral severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, vaccination, or their combination (“hybrid immunity”) at monoclonal resolution. Infection primarily triggers S2/N-terminal domain (NTD)-reactive antibodies, whereas vaccination mainly induces anti-receptor-binding domain (RBD) antibodies. This imprint persists after secondary exposures wherein >60% of ensuing hybrid immunity derives from the original IgG pool. Monoclonal constituents of the original IgG pool can increase breadth, affinity, and prevalence upon secondary exposures, as exemplified by the plasma antibody SC27. Following a breakthrough infection, vaccine-induced SC27 gained neutralization breadth and potency against SARS-CoV-2 variants and zoonotic viruses (half-maximal inhibitory concentration [IC50] ∼0.1–1.75 nM) and increased its binding affinity to the protective RBD class 1/4 epitope (dissociation constant [KD] < 5 pM). According to polyclonal escape analysis, SC27-like binding patterns are common in SARS-CoV-2 hybrid immunity. Our findings provide a detailed molecular definition of immunological imprinting and show that vaccination can produce class 1/4 (SC27-like) IgG antibodies circulating in the blood.

The global emergence of many severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants jeopardizes the protective antiviral immunity induced after infection or vaccination. To address the public health threat caused by the increasing SARS-CoV-2 genomic diversity, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases within the National Institutes of Health established the SARS-CoV-2 Assessment of Viral Evolution (SAVE) programme. This effort was designed to provide a real-time risk assessment of SARS-CoV-2 variants that could potentially affect the transmission, virulence, and resistance to infection- and vaccine-induced immunity. The SAVE programme is a critical data-generating component of the US Government SARS-CoV-2 Interagency Group to assess implications of SARS-CoV-2 variants on diagnostics, vaccines and therapeutics, and for communicating public health risk. Here we describe the coordinated approach used to identify and curate data about emerging variants, their impact on immunity and effects on vaccine protection using animal models. We report the development of reagents, methodologies, models and notable findings facilitated by this collaborative approach and identify future challenges. This programme is a template for the response to rapidly evolving pathogens with pandemic potential by monitoring viral evolution in the human population to identify variants that could reduce the effectiveness of countermeasures.

Descendants of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron variant now account for almost all SARS-CoV-2 infections. The Omicron variant and its sublineages have spike glycoproteins that are highly diverged from the pandemic founder and first-generation vaccine strain, resulting in significant evasion from monoclonal antibody therapeutics and vaccines. Understanding how commonly elicited antibodies can broaden to cross-neutralize escape variants is crucial. We isolate IGHV3-53, using “public” monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) from an individual 7 months post infection with the ancestral virus and identify antibodies that exhibit potent and broad cross-neutralization, extending to the BA.1, BA.2, and BA.4/BA.5 sublineages of Omicron. Deep mutational scanning reveals these mAbs’ high resistance to viral escape. Structural analysis via cryoelectron microscopy of a representative broadly neutralizing antibody, CAB-A17, in complex with the Omicron BA.1 spike highlights the structural underpinnings of this broad neutralization. By reintroducing somatic hypermutations into a germline-reverted CAB-A17, we delineate the role of affinity maturation in the development of cross-neutralization by a public class of antibodies.

Two different sarbecoviruses have caused major human outbreaks in the past two decades1,2. Both of these sarbecoviruses, SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2, engage ACE2 through the spike receptor-binding domain2–6. However, binding to ACE2 orthologues of humans, bats and other species has been observed only sporadically among the broader diversity of bat sarbecoviruses7–11. Here we use high-throughput assays12to trace the evolutionary history of ACE2 binding across a diverse range of sarbecoviruses and ACE2 orthologues. We find that ACE2 binding is an ancestral trait of sarbecovirus receptor-binding domains that has subsequently been lost in some clades. Furthermore, we reveal that bat sarbecoviruses from outside Asia can bind to ACE2. Moreover, ACE2 binding is highly evolvable—for many sarbecovirus receptor-binding domains, there are single amino-acid mutations that enable binding to new ACE2 orthologues. However, the effects of individual mutations can differ considerably between viruses, as shown by the N501Y mutation, which enhances the human ACE2-binding affinity of several SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern12but substantially decreases it for SARS-CoV-1. Our results point to the deep ancestral origin and evolutionary plasticity of ACE2 binding, broadening the range of sarbecoviruses that should be considered to have spillover potential.

Broadly neutralizing antibodies that target epitopes of haemagglutinin on the influenza virus have the potential to provide near universal protection against influenza virus infection1. However, viral mutants that escape broadly neutralizing antibodies have been reported2,3. The identification of broadly neutralizing antibody classes that can neutralize viral escape mutants is critical for universal influenza virus vaccine design. Here we report a distinct class of broadly neutralizing antibodies that target a discrete membrane-proximal anchor epitope of the haemagglutinin stalk domain. Anchor epitope-targeting antibodies are broadly neutralizing across H1 viruses and can cross-react with H2 and H5 viruses that are a pandemic threat. Antibodies that target this anchor epitope utilize a highly restricted repertoire, which encodes two public binding motifs that make extensive contacts with conserved residues in the fusion peptide. Moreover, anchor epitope-targeting B cells are common in the human memory B cell repertoire and were recalled in humans by an oil-in-water adjuvanted chimeric haemagglutinin vaccine4,5, which is a potential universal influenza virus vaccine. To maximize protection against seasonal and pandemic influenza viruses, vaccines should aim to boost this previously untapped source of broadly neutralizing antibodies that are widespread in the human memory B cell pool.

An ideal therapeutic anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody would resist viral escape1–3, have activity against diverse sarbecoviruses4–7, and be highly protective through viral neutralization8–11and effector functions12,13. Understanding how these properties relate to each other and vary across epitopes would aid the development of therapeutic antibodies and guide vaccine design. Here we comprehensively characterize escape, breadth and potency across a panel of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies targeting the receptor-binding domain (RBD). Despite a trade-off between in vitro neutralization potency and breadth of sarbecovirus binding, we identify neutralizing antibodies with exceptional sarbecovirus breadth and a corresponding resistance to SARS-CoV-2 escape. One of these antibodies, S2H97, binds with high affinity across all sarbecovirus clades to a cryptic epitope and prophylactically protects hamsters from viral challenge. Antibodies that target the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor-binding motif (RBM) typically have poor breadth and are readily escaped by mutations despite high neutralization potency. Nevertheless, we also characterize a potent RBM antibody (S2E128) with breadth across sarbecoviruses related to SARS-CoV-2 and a high barrier to viral escape. These data highlight principles underlying variation in escape, breadth and potency among antibodies that target the RBD, and identify epitopes and features to prioritize for therapeutic development against the current and potential future pandemics.

The recent emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern1–10and the recurrent spillovers of coronaviruses11,12into the human population highlight the need for broadly neutralizing antibodies that are not affected by the ongoing antigenic drift and that can prevent or treat future zoonotic infections. Here we describe a human monoclonal antibody designated S2X259, which recognizes a highly conserved cryptic epitope of the receptor-binding domain and cross-reacts with spikes from all clades of sarbecovirus. S2X259 broadly neutralizes spike-mediated cell entry of SARS-CoV-2, including variants of concern (B.1.1.7, B.1.351, P.1, and B.1.427/B.1.429), as well as a wide spectrum of human and potentially zoonotic sarbecoviruses through inhibition of angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) binding to the receptor-binding domain. Furthermore, deep-mutational scanning and in vitro escape selection experiments demonstrate that S2X259 possesses an escape profile that is limited to a single substitution, G504D. We show that prophylactic and therapeutic administration of S2X259 protects Syrian hamsters (Mesocricetus auratus) against challenge with the prototypic SARS-CoV-2 and the B.1.351 variant of concern, which suggests that this monoclonal antibody is a promising candidate for the prevention and treatment of emergent variants and zoonotic infections. Our data reveal a key antigenic site that is targeted by broadly neutralizing antibodies and will guide the design of vaccines that are effective against all sarbecoviruses.

Following its emergence in late 2019, the spread of SARS-CoV-21,2has been tracked by phylogenetic analysis of viral genome sequences in unprecedented detail3–5. Although the virus spread globally in early 2020 before borders closed, intercontinental travel has since been greatly reduced. However, travel within Europe resumed in the summer of 2020. Here we report on a SARS-CoV-2 variant, 20E (EU1), that was identified in Spain in early summer 2020 and subsequently spread across Europe. We find no evidence that this variant has increased transmissibility, but instead demonstrate how rising incidence in Spain, resumption of travel, and lack of effective screening and containment may explain the variant’s success. Despite travel restrictions, we estimate that 20E (EU1) was introduced hundreds of times to European countries by summertime travellers, which is likely to have undermined local efforts to minimize infection with SARS-CoV-2. Our results illustrate how a variant can rapidly become dominant even in the absence of a substantial transmission advantage in favourable epidemiological settings. Genomic surveillance is critical for understanding how travel can affect transmission of SARS-CoV-2, and thus for informing future containment strategies as travel resumes.

Continued evolution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is eroding antibody responses elicited by prior vaccination and infection. The SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain (RBD) E406W mutation abrogates neutralization mediated by the REGEN-COV therapeutic monoclonal antibody (mAb) COVID-19 cocktail and the AZD1061 (COV2-2130) mAb. Here, we show that this mutation remodels the receptor-binding site allosterically, thereby altering the epitopes recognized by these three mAbs and vaccine-elicited neutralizing antibodies while remaining functional. Our results demonstrate the spectacular structural and functional plasticity of the SARS-CoV-2 RBD, which is continuously evolving in emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants, including currently circulating strains that are accumulating mutations in the antigenic sites remodeled by the E406W substitution.

New variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) continue to arise and prolong the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Here, we used a cell-free expression workflow to rapidly screen and optimize constructs containing multiple computationally designed miniprotein inhibitors of SARS-CoV-2. We found the broadest efficacy was achieved with a homotrimeric version of the 75-residue angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) mimic AHB2 (TRI2-2) designed to geometrically match the trimeric spike architecture. Consistent with the design model, in the cryo-electron microscopy structure TRI2-2 forms a tripod at the apex of the spike protein that engaged all three receptor binding domains simultaneously. TRI2-2 neutralized Omicron (B.1.1.529), Delta (B.1.617.2), and all other variants tested with greater potency than the monoclonal antibodies used clinically for the treatment of COVID-19. TRI2-2 also conferred prophylactic and therapeutic protection against SARS-CoV-2 challenge when administered intranasally in mice. Designed miniprotein receptor mimics geometrically arrayed to match pathogen receptor binding sites could be a widely applicable antiviral therapeutic strategy with advantages over antibodies in greater resistance to viral escape and antigenic drift, and advantages over native receptor traps in lower chances of autoimmune responses.

Resistance to oseltamivir, the most widely used influenza antiviral drug, spread to fixation in seasonal influenza A(H1N1) between 2006 and 2009. This sudden rise in resistance seemed puzzling given the low overall level of the oseltamivir usage and the lack of a correlation between local rates of resistance and oseltamivir usage. We used a stochastic simulation model and deterministic approximations to examine how such events can occur, and in particular to determine how the rate of fixation of the resistant strain depends both on its fitness in untreated hosts as well as the frequency of antiviral treatment. We found that, for the levels of antiviral usage in the population, the resistant strain will eventually spread to fixation, if it is not attenuated in transmissibility relative to the drug-sensitive strain, but not at the speed observed in seasonal H1N1. The extreme speed with which the resistance spread in seasonal H1N1 suggests that the resistant strain had a transmission advantage in untreated hosts, and this could have arisen from genetic hitchhiking, or from the mutations responsible for resistance and compensation. Importantly, our model also shows that resistant virus will fail to spread if it is even slightly less transmissible than its sensitive counterpart—a finding of relevance given that resistant pandemic influenza (H1N1) 2009 may currently suffer from a small, but nonetheless experimentally perceptible reduction in transmissibility.

We have recently proposed a thermodynamic model that predicts the tolerance of proteins to random amino acid substitutions. Here we test this model against extensive simulations with compact lattice proteins, and find that the overall performance of the model is very good. We also derive an approximate analytic expression for the fraction of mutant proteins that fold stably to the native structure, Pf(m), as a function of the number of amino acid substitutions m, and present several methods to estimate the asymptotic behavior of Pf(m) for large m. We test the accuracy of all approximations against our simulation results, and find good overall agreement between the approximations and the simulation measurements.

Functional proteins must fold with some minimal stability to a structure that can perform a biochemical task. Here we use a simple model to investigate the relationship between the stability requirement and the capacity of a protein to evolve the function of binding to a ligand. Although our model contains no built-in tradeoff between stability and function, proteins evolved function more efficiently when the stability requirement was relaxed. Proteins with both high stability and high function evolved more efficiently when the stability requirement was gradually increased than when there was constant selection for high stability. These results show that in our model, the evolution of function is enhanced by allowing proteins to explore sequences corresponding to marginally stable structures, and that it is easier to improve stability while maintaining high function than to improve function while maintaining high stability. Our model also demonstrates that even in the absence of a fundamental biophysical tradeoff between stability and function, the speed with which function can evolve is limited by the stability requirement imposed on the protein.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spike protein is the main target for neutralizing antibodies. These antibodies can be elicited through immunization or passively transferred as therapeutics in the form of convalescent-phase sera or monoclonal antibodies (MAbs).

Deep mutational scanning shows that the mRNA-1273 RBD-binding antibody response is less affected by single viral mutations than the infection response.

Munoz-Alia and colleagues1demonstrate that neutralizing antibody immunity to measles resists viral evolutionary escape because it targets numerous distinct viral epitopes. Their work contributes to our understanding of what determines whether a virus can evolve to evade immunity.

Monoclonal antibodies and antibody cocktails are a promising therapeutic and prophylaxis for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, ongoing evolution of severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) can render monoclonal antibodies ineffective. Here, we completely map all of the mutations to the SARS-CoV-2 spike receptor-binding domain (RBD) that escape binding by a leading monoclonal antibody, LY-CoV555, and its cocktail combination with LY-CoV016. Individual mutations that escape binding by each antibody are combined in the circulating B.1.351 and P.1 SARS-CoV-2 lineages (E484K escapes LY-CoV555, K417N/T escapes LY-CoV016). In addition, the L452R mutation in the B.1.429 lineage escapes LY-CoV555. Furthermore, we identify single amino acid changes that escape the combined LY-CoV555+LY-CoV016 cocktail. We suggest that future efforts diversify the epitopes targeted by antibodies and antibody cocktails to make them more resilient to the antigenic evolution of SARS-CoV-2.

The development of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 would be greatly facilitated by the identification of immunological correlates of protection in humans. However, to date, studies on protective immunity have been performed only in animal models and correlates of protection have not been established in humans. Here, we describe an outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 on a fishing vessel associated with a high attack rate. Predeparture serological and viral reverse transcription-PCR (RT-PCR) testing along with repeat testing after return to shore was available for 120 of the 122 persons on board over a median follow-up of 32.

As a part of the innate immune system, humans encode proteins that inhibit viruses such as HIV-1. These broadly acting antiviral proteins do not protect humans from viral infections because viruses encode proteins that antagonize the host antiviral proteins to evade the innate immune system. One such example of a host antiviral protein is APOBEC3C (A3C), which weakly inhibits HIV-1. Here, we show that we can improve the antiviral activity of A3C by duplicating the DNA sequence to create a synthetic tandem domain and, furthermore, that the proteins thus generated are relatively resistant to the viral antagonist Vif. Together, these data give insights about how nature has evolved a defense against viral pathogens such as HIV.

Antibodies targeting the receptor binding site (RBS) of the influenza virus hemagglutinin (HA) protein are usually not broadly reactive because their footprints are typically large and extend to nearby variable HA residues. Here, we identify several human H3N2 HA RBS-targeting monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) that are sensitive to substitutions in conventional antigenic sites and are therefore not broadly reactive. However, we also identify an H3N2 HA RBS-targeting mAb that is exceptionally broadly reactive despite being sensitive to substitutions in residues outside of the RBS. We show that similar antibodies are present at measurable levels in the sera of some individuals but that they are inefficiently elicited by conventional vaccines. Our data indicate that HA RBS-targeting antibodies can be effective against variable viral strains even when they are somewhat sensitive to substitutions in HA residues adjacent to the RBS.