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Interannual variability in the global land carbon sink is strongly related to variations in tropical temperature and rainfall. This association suggests an important role for moisture-driven fluctuations in tropical vegetation productivity, but empirical evidence to quantify the responsible ecological processes is missing. Such evidence can be obtained from tree-ring data that quantify variability in a major vegetation productivity component: woody biomass growth. Here we compile a pantropical tree-ring network to show that annual woody biomass growth increases primarily with dry-season precipitation and decreases with dry-season maximum temperature. The strength of these dry-season climate responses varies among sites, as reflected in four robust and distinct climate response groups of tropical tree growth derived from clustering. Using cluster and regression analyses, we find that dry-season climate responses are amplified in regions that are drier, hotter and more climatically variable. These amplification patterns suggest that projected global warming will probably aggravate drought-induced declines in annual tropical vegetation productivity. Our study reveals a previously underappreciated role of dry-season climate variability in driving the dynamics of tropical vegetation productivity and consequently in influencing the land carbon sink.

Tropical forests store 40–50 per cent of terrestrial vegetation carbon1. However, spatial variations in aboveground live tree biomass carbon (AGC) stocks remain poorly understood, in particular in tropical montane forests2. Owing to climatic and soil changes with increasing elevation3, AGC stocks are lower in tropical montane forests compared with lowland forests2. Here we assemble and analyse a dataset of structurally intact old-growth forests (AfriMont) spanning 44 montane sites in 12 African countries. We find that montane sites in the AfriMont plot network have a mean AGC stock of 149.4 megagrams of carbon per hectare (95% confidence interval 137.1–164.2), which is comparable to lowland forests in the African Tropical Rainforest Observation Network4and about 70 per cent and 32 per cent higher than averages from plot networks in montane2,5,6and lowland7forests in the Neotropics, respectively. Notably, our results are two-thirds higher than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change default values for these forests in Africa8. We find that the low stem density and high abundance of large trees of African lowland forests4is mirrored in the montane forests sampled. This carbon store is endangered: we estimate that 0.8 million hectares of old-growth African montane forest have been lost since 2000. We provide country-specific montane forest AGC stock estimates modelled from our plot network to help to guide forest conservation and reforestation interventions. Our findings highlight the need for conserving these biodiverse9,10and carbon-rich ecosystems.

Das Wachstum tropischer Baumarten hängt von der Saisonalität des lokalen Klimas ab. In Gebieten mit markanter Trockenzeit stellen viele Baumarten die kambiale Aktivität zeitweise ein und bilden Jahrringe. In feuchten Bergregenwäldern wird das Baumwachstum nach kurzen trockeneren Phasen eingestellt. Mit einer Kombination von Zuwachsmessungen und holzanatomischen Analysen kann die Klimasteuerung der Holzbildung entschlüsselt werden. Die intraannuelle Variabilität der Holzdichte und der Verhältnisse stabiler Isotope erlauben die klimaökologische Interpretation der Signale im Holz.

To develop a high‐resolution paleoclimate proxy record facilitating adaptation measures on drought impacts, we constructed a regional composite tree‐ring chronology of teak (Tectona grandis) by combining three local site chronologies from southern Myanmar. Our regional tree‐ring record is strongly correlated with the November–April self‐calibrated Palmer drought severity index and enabled us to reconstruct drought variability for the period 1802–2016. The reconstruction explained 46.5% of the actual self‐calibrated Palmer drought severity index variance. Over the past two centuries, we detected one extreme (1812) and six severe drought years (1810, 1811, 1816, 1852, 1887, and 1980). Dry periods coincided with six major famines that occurred in India. Spatial correlation analyses revealed that drought occurrence is linked to broader‐scale atmospheric circulations of the Pacific and Indian Oceans, especially during the positive phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Our reconstruction provides a useful historical perspective for assessing adaptation measures intent on mitigating future drought impacts in Myanmar. We developed a 226‐year‐long ring‐width regional chronology of teak by combining three site chronologies from southern Myanmar. Teak growth is mainly controlled by moisture availability during the dry season, making teak a suitable species for assessing drought variation in southern Myanmar. We reconstructed a 215‐year drought history and find prolonged droughts occurred in 1808–1823, 1837–1843, 1863–1876, 1883–1891, 1895–1901, 1908–1912, 1922–1930, 1941–1945, 1952–1963, 1976–1994, and 2010–2015. We also found a strong association between drought variability in southern Myanmar and sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, as well as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomenon. The results are useful to devise necessary policies and strategies for coping with the adverse impacts of drought and protecting the livelihoods of regional populations. The radial growth of teak in southern Myanmar is mainly limited by moisture availability during the dry seasonDry episodes in the past 200 years in southern Myanmar coincided with six major famines in India and other regional drought reconstructionsDrought variations in southern Myanmar may be linked to large‐scale climate drivers, mainly tropical SST variations and El Niño events