Search

South Asia has been identified as one of the most vulnerable regions in the world to the impact of climate change. Empirical studies carried out in recent years using the partial equilibrium approach suggest that climate change-induced yield losses in agriculture are becoming a serious concern. In this study, we use a global dynamic computable general equilibrium model to examine the impact of changes in crop productivity due to climate change on food prices and food security in South Asia, focusing on five large countries in the region, namely, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Our results suggest that there is likely to be a significant negative impact on food production and prices in all South Asian countries due to climate change-induced agricultural productivity changes. The results further suggest that countries in this region are likely to face problems of food security given that nearly half of the world’s poor reside in this region and agriculture plays an important role in the gross domestic product (GDP) and employment generation in the region. The results support the need for policy analysts and policy makers in the region to develop climate change adaptation measures that address the likely negative consequences of climate change-induced agricultural productivity losses.

Because issues associated with climate change are historically unprecedented and thus policymakers do not have a prior distribution over possible outcomes, the usual theoretical approach based on governments maximizing expected utility may not be suitable for analysing climate policy choice. Under an alternative plausible assumption that policymakers act strategically but choose the policy that incurs the highest possible gain in the worst-case scenario, this paper shows how collectivism can be inferior to unilateralism in both carbon mitigation and economic loss minimization. Our proposed approach provides a possible explanation for several paradoxes in the existing literature in relation to uncertainty and climate policy negotiation. It also provides an analytical framework that can be applied to numerical simulations of international climate policy games.

This paper examines fiscal reform options in the United States using an intertemporal computable general equilibrium model of the world economy called G-Cubed. Six policy scenarios explore two overarching issues: (1) the effects of a carbon tax under alternative assumptions about the use of the resulting revenue, and (2) the effects of alternative revenue sources to reduce the budget deficit. We examine a simple excise tax on the carbon content of fossil fuels in the U.S. energy sector starting immediately at $15 per ton of carbon dioxide (CO2) and rising at 4 percent above inflation each year. We investigate policies that allow the revenue from the illustrative carbon tax to reduce the long-run federal budget deficit or the marginal tax rates on labor and capital income. We also compare imposing a carbon tax to increasing rates of other taxes to reduce the deficit by the same amount. We find that within 25 years of adopting the carbon tax, annual CO2 emissions are 20 percent lower than baseline levels. We find that using the revenue for a capital tax cut is significantly different than other revenue recycling policies. In that case, investment rises, employment and wages rise, and overall GDP is significantly above its baseline level through year 25. Thus, adopting a carbon tax and using the revenue to reduce capital taxes would achieve the dual goals of reducing CO2 emissions significantly and expanding employment and the economy.

Using conventional observation data, FY2 satellite data, typhoon data and NCEP reanalysis data, the different position of Pre-TC squall line accompanying the similar tracks with “Lekima” (No. 1909) and “Matsa” (No. 0509) is studied. The article analyzes the circulation background and trigger mechanism generated by the two pre-TC squall lines, and uses various physical quantities such as low-level vertical wind shear, humidity, wind field, wet potential vorticity, and vertical vorticity. Also, try to study the dynamic mechanism of dry intrusion during the process using the Slantwise Vorticity Development (SVD) theory. The results show that: the high-altitude system and the ground trigger mechanism produced are significantly different. On the high-altitude system, the “Lekima” squall line is generated between the continental high pressure and the typhoon with the northeast jet. The “Matsa” squall line occurred between the typhoon and the subtropical high, and near the typhoon inverted trough, which was generated with the strong easterlies. On the ground trigger mechanism, the “Lekima” squall line is generated at the convergence line under the intersection of northeast and northwest air currents. The “Matsa” squall line is generated in the ground inverted trough moves westward and meridional degree increases. During the two pre-TC squall lines, low-level vertical wind shear values are above 16 m·s−1.The dry air intrusion in the lower layer came from the upper and middle troposphere in the vertical direction, and in the east from the west along the latitude in the horizontal direction. Theoretical analysis base on the development of wet potential vorticity, vertical vorticity, and inclined vorticity indicate that the downward transmission of the high potential vorticity band on the upper troposphere, the level of dry invasion, and the air mixing of equivalent potential temperature at high and low levels play an important role in the generation and development of the pre-TC squall line. The slantwise vorticity has a good corresponding relationship with the vertical vorticity over the pre-TC squall line. The two development processes of the pre-TC squall line can be better explained by using the SVD theory.