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On 21 February 2020, a resident of the municipality of Vo’, a small town near Padua (Italy), died of pneumonia due to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection1. This was the first coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19)-related death detected in Italy since the detection of SARS-CoV-2 in the Chinese city of Wuhan, Hubei province2. In response, the regional authorities imposed the lockdown of the whole municipality for 14 days3. Here we collected information on the demography, clinical presentation, hospitalization, contact network and the presence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in nasopharyngeal swabs for 85.9% and 71.5% of the population of Vo’ at two consecutive time points. From the first survey, which was conducted around the time the town lockdown started, we found a prevalence of infection of 2.6% (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.1–3.3%). From the second survey, which was conducted at the end of the lockdown, we found a prevalence of 1.2% (95% CI: 0.8–1.8%). Notably, 42.5% (95% CI: 31.5–54.6%) of the confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections detected across the two surveys were asymptomatic (that is, did not have symptoms at the time of swab testing and did not develop symptoms afterwards). The mean serial interval was 7.2 days (95% CI: 5.9–9.6). We found no statistically significant difference in the viral load of symptomatic versus asymptomatic infections (P= 0.62 and 0.74 for Eand RdRpgenes, respectively, exact Wilcoxon–Mann–Whitney test). This study sheds light on the frequency of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, their infectivity (as measured by the viral load) and provides insights into its transmission dynamics and the efficacy of the implemented control measures.

On May 8, 2018, the Government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo reported an outbreak of Ebola virus disease in Équateur Province in the northwest of the country. The remoteness of most affected communities and the involvement of an urban centre connected to the capital city and neighbouring countries makes this outbreak the most complex and high risk ever experienced by the Democratic Republic of the Congo. We provide early epidemiological information arising from the ongoing investigation of this outbreak.

We use viral kinetic models fitted to viral load data from in vitrostudies to explain why the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant replicates faster than the Delta variant in nasal cells, but slower than Delta in lung cells, which could explain Omicron's higher transmission potential and lower severity. We find that in both nasal and lung cells, viral infectivity is higher for Omicron but the virus production rate is higher for Delta, with an estimated approximately 200-fold increase in infectivity and 100-fold decrease in virus production when comparing Omicron with Delta in nasal cells. However, the differences are unequal between cell types, and ultimately lead to the basic reproduction number and growth rate being higher for Omicron in nasal cells, and higher for Delta in lung cells. In nasal cells, Omicron alone can enter via a TMPRSS2-independent pathway, but it is primarily increased efficiency of TMPRSS2-dependent entry which accounts for Omicron's increased activity. This work paves the way for using within-host mathematical models to understand the transmission potential and severity of future variants.

Ebola emerged in West Africa around December 2013 and swept through Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia, giving rise to 27,748 confirmed, probable and suspected cases reported by 29 July 2015. Case diagnoses during the epidemic have relied on polymerase chain reaction-based tests. Owing to limited laboratory capacity and local transport infrastructure, the delays from sample collection to test results being available have often been 2 days or more. Point-of-care rapid diagnostic tests offer the potential to substantially reduce these delays. We review Ebola rapid diagnostic tests approved by the World Health Organization and those currently in development. Such rapid diagnostic tests could allow early triaging of patients, thereby reducing the potential for nosocomial transmission. In addition, despite the lower test accuracy, rapid diagnostic test-based diagnosis may be beneficial in some contexts because of the reduced time spent by uninfected individuals in health-care settings where they may be at increased risk of infection; this also frees up hospital beds. We use mathematical modelling to explore the potential benefits of diagnostic testing strategies involving rapid diagnostic tests alone and in combination with polymerase chain reaction testing. Our analysis indicates that the use of rapid diagnostic tests with sensitivity and specificity comparable with those currently under development always enhances control, whether evaluated at a health-care-unit or population level. If such tests had been available throughout the recent epidemic, we estimate, for Sierra Leone, that their use in combination with confirmatory polymerase chain-reaction testing might have reduced the scale of the epidemic by over a third.This article has not been written or reviewed by Nature editors. Nature accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of the information provided.

Abstract: We analyse here the vaccine model with cross-immunity proposed by Porco and Blower . Porco and Blower show that vaccination can shift the competitive balance in favour of a strain that, without vaccination, would be out-competed and that vaccination can also promote coexistence of different strains, something that normally is not expected . Their results have been mainly obtained through numerical simulations, so that the conditions under which a shift in competitive balance or coexistence occurs have not been fully established. We give a rather complete description of its behaviour, at least in terms of equilibria. We find the exact conditions under which vaccination may lead to a shift in competitive balance and show that, under these conditions, there always exist a range of vaccination rates under which a coexistence equilibrium exists. We also find that a coexistence equilibrium exists (and is unstable) in a ‘bi-stability’ region, where both monomorphic equilibria are stable. This fact has been rarely observed in models of competition between pathogen strains. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2956-7.