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There is debate over whether the glycaemic index of foods relates to chronic disease. We aimed to assess the associations between glycaemic index (GI) and glycaemic load (GL) and type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, diabetes-related cancers, and all-cause mortality.

Here, in a multi-ancestry genome-wide association study meta-analysis of kidney cancer (29,020 cases and 835,670 controls), we identified 63 susceptibility regions (50 novel) containing 108 independent risk loci. In analyses stratified by subtype, 52 regions (78 loci) were associated with clear cell renal cell carcinoma (RCC) and 6 regions (7 loci) with papillary RCC. Notably, we report a variant common in African ancestry individuals (rs7629500) in the 3′ untranslated region of VHL, nearly tripling clear cell RCC risk (odds ratio 2.72, 95% confidence interval 2.23–3.30). In cis-expression quantitative trait locus analyses, 48 variants from 34 regions point toward 83 candidate genes. Enrichment of hypoxia-inducible factor-binding sites underscores the importance of hypoxia-related mechanisms in kidney cancer. Our results advance understanding of the genetic architecture of kidney cancer, provide clues for functional investigation and enable generation of a validated polygenic risk score with an estimated area under the curve of 0.65 (0.74 including risk factors) among European ancestry individuals.

Mosaic loss of the X chromosome (mLOX) is the most common clonal somatic alteration in leukocytes of female individuals1,2, but little is known about its genetic determinants or phenotypic consequences. Here, to address this, we used data from 883,574 female participants across 8 biobanks; 12% of participants exhibited detectable mLOX in approximately 2% of leukocytes. Female participants with mLOX had an increased risk of myeloid and lymphoid leukaemias. Genetic analyses identified 56 common variants associated with mLOX, implicating genes with roles in chromosomal missegregation, cancer predisposition and autoimmune diseases. Exome-sequence analyses identified rare missense variants in FBXO10that confer a twofold increased risk of mLOX. Only a small fraction of associations was shared with mosaic Y chromosome loss, suggesting that distinct biological processes drive formation and clonal expansion of sex chromosome missegregation. Allelic shift analyses identified X chromosome alleles that are preferentially retained in mLOX, demonstrating variation at many loci under cellular selection. A polygenic score including 44 allelic shift loci correctly inferred the retained X chromosomes in 80.7% of mLOX cases in the top decile. Our results support a model in which germline variants predispose female individuals to acquiring mLOX, with the allelic content of the X chromosome possibly shaping the magnitude of clonal expansion.

IMPORTANCE: The revised 2021 US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) guidelines for lung cancer screening have been shown to reduce disparities in screening eligibility and performance between African American and White individuals vs the 2013 guidelines. However, potential disparities across other racial and ethnic groups in the US remain unknown. Risk model–based screening may reduce racial and ethnic disparities and improve screening performance, but neither validation of key risk prediction models nor their screening performance has been examined by race and ethnicity. OBJECTIVE: To validate and recalibrate the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial 2012 (PLCOm2012) model—a well-established risk prediction model based on a predominantly White population—across races and ethnicities in the US and evaluate racial and ethnic disparities and screening performance through risk-based screening using PLCOm2012 vs the USPSTF 2021 criteria. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: In a population-based cohort design, the Multiethnic Cohort Study enrolled participants in 1993-1996, followed up through December 31, 2018. Data analysis was conducted from April 1, 2022, to May 19. 2023. A total of 105 261 adults with a smoking history were included. EXPOSURES: The 6-year lung cancer risk was calculated through recalibrated PLCOm2012 (ie, PLCOm2012-Update) and screening eligibility based on a 6-year risk threshold greater than or equal to 1.3%, yielding similar eligibility as the USPSTF 2021 guidelines. OUTCOMES: Predictive accuracy, screening eligibility-incidence (E-I) ratio (ie, ratio of the number of eligible to incident cases), and screening performance (sensitivity, specificity, and number needed to screen to detect 1 lung cancer). RESULTS: Of 105 261 participants (60 011 [57.0%] men; mean [SD] age, 59.8 [8.7] years), consisting of 19 258 (18.3%) African American, 27 227 (25.9%) Japanese American, 21 383 (20.3%) Latino, 8368 (7.9%) Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islander, and 29 025 (27.6%) White individuals, 1464 (1.4%) developed lung cancer within 6 years from enrollment. The PLCOm2012-Update showed good predictive accuracy across races and ethnicities (area under the curve, 0.72-0.82). The USPSTF 2021 criteria yielded a large disparity among African American individuals, whose E-I ratio was 53% lower vs White individuals (E-I ratio: 9.5 vs 20.3; P < .001). Under the risk-based screening (PLCOm2012-Update 6-year risk ≥1.3%), the disparity between African American and White individuals was substantially reduced (E-I ratio: 15.9 vs 18.4; P < .001), with minimal disparities observed in persons of other minoritized groups, including Japanese American, Latino, and Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islander. Risk-based screening yielded superior overall and race and ethnicity–specific performance to the USPSTF 2021 criteria, with higher overall sensitivity (67.2% vs 57.7%) and lower number needed to screen (26 vs 30) at similar specificity (76.6%). CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this cohort study suggest that risk-based lung cancer screening can reduce racial and ethnic disparities and improve screening performance across races and ethnicities vs the USPSTF 2021 criteria.

IMPORTANCE: Although deaths due to external causes are a leading cause of mortality in the US, trends over time by intent and demographic characteristics remain poorly understood. OBJECTIVE: To examine national trends in mortality rates due to external causes from 1999 to 2020 by intent (homicide, suicide, unintentional, and undetermined) and demographic characteristics. External causes were defined as poisonings (eg, drug overdose), firearms, and all other injuries, including motor vehicle injuries and falls. Given the repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic, US death rates for 2019 and 2020 were also compared. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Serial cross-sectional study using national death certificate data obtained from the National Center for Health Statistics and including all external causes of 3 813 894 deaths among individuals aged 20 years or older from January 1, 1999, to December 31, 2020. Data analysis was conducted from January 20, 2022, to February 5, 2023. EXPOSURES: Age, sex, and race and ethnicity. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Trends in age-standardized mortality rates and average annual percentage change (AAPC) in rates calculated by intent (suicide, homicide, unintentional, and undetermined), age, sex, and race and ethnicity for each external cause. RESULTS: Between 1999 and 2020, there were 3 813 894 deaths due to external causes in the US. From 1999 to 2020, poisoning death rates increased annually (AAPC, 7.0%; 95% CI, 5.4%-8.7%). From 2014 to 2020, poisoning death rates increased the most among men (APC, 10.8%; 95% CI, 7.7%-14.0%). During the study period, poisoning death rates increased in all the racial and ethnic groups examined; the most rapid increase was among American Indian and Alaska Native individuals (AAPC, 9.2%; 95% CI, 7.4%-10.9%). During the study period, death rates for unintentional poisoning had the most rapid rate of increase (AAPC, 8.1%; 95% CI, 7.4%-8.9%). From 1999 to 2020, firearm death rates increased (AAPC, 1.1%; 95% CI, 0.7%-1.5%). From 2013 to 2020, firearm mortality increased by an average of 4.7% annually (95% CI, 2.9%-6.5%) among individuals aged 20 to 39 years. From 2014 to 2020, mortality from firearm homicides increased by an average of 6.9% annually (95% CI, 3.5%-10.4%). From 2019 to 2020, mortality rates from external causes accelerated further, largely from increases in unintentional poisoning, and homicide due to firearms and all other injuries. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Results of this cross-sectional study suggest that from 1999 to 2020, death rates due to poisonings, firearms, and all other injuries increased substantially in the US. The rapid increase in deaths due to unintentional poisonings and firearm homicides is a national emergency that requires urgent public health interventions at the local and national levels.

Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening for prostate cancer remains controversial because it increases overdiagnosis and overtreatment of clinically insignificant tumors. Accounting for genetic determinants of constitutive, non-cancer-related PSA variation has potential to improve screening utility. In this study, we discovered 128 genome-wide significant associations (P< 5 × 10−8) in a multi-ancestry meta-analysis of 95,768 men and developed a PSA polygenic score (PGSPSA) that explains 9.61% of constitutive PSA variation. We found that, in men of European ancestry, using PGS-adjusted PSA would avoid up to 31% of negative prostate biopsies but also result in 12% fewer biopsies in patients with prostate cancer, mostly with Gleason score <7 tumors. Genetically adjusted PSA was more predictive of aggressive prostate cancer (odds ratio (OR) = 3.44, P= 6.2 × 10−14, area under the curve (AUC) = 0.755) than unadjusted PSA (OR = 3.31, P= 1.1 × 10−12, AUC = 0.738) in 106 cases and 23,667 controls. Compared to a prostate cancer PGS alone (AUC = 0.712), including genetically adjusted PSA improved detection of aggressive disease (AUC = 0.786, P= 7.2 × 10−4). Our findings highlight the potential utility of incorporating PGS for personalized biomarkers in prostate cancer screening.

Lung cancer is a common cancer in people living with HIV, but the risk of cancer in this group has not been investigated for over a decade. We investigated trends in relative and absolute risk of lung cancer among people living with HIV of various age groups in the USA.

Patients with severe aplastic anemia (SAA) can have an unrecognized inherited bone marrow failure syndrome (IBMFS) because of phenotypic heterogeneity. We curated germline genetic variants in 104 IBMFS-associated genes from exome sequencing performed on 732 patients who underwent hematopoietic cell transplant (HCT) between 1989 and 2015 for acquired SAA. Patients with pathogenic or likely pathogenic (P/LP) variants fitting known disease zygosity patterns were deemed unrecognized IBMFS. Carriers were defined as patients with a single P/LP variant in an autosomal recessive gene or females with an X-linked recessive P/LP variant. Cox proportional hazard models were used for survival analysis with follow-up until 2017. We identified 113 P/LP single-nucleotide variants or small insertions/deletions and 10 copy number variants across 42 genes in 121 patients. Ninety-one patients had 105 in silico predicted deleterious variants of uncertain significance (dVUS). Forty-eight patients (6.6%) had an unrecognized IBMFS (33% adults), and 73 (10%) were carriers. No survival difference between dVUS and acquired SAA was noted. Compared with acquired SAA (no P/LP variants), patients with unrecognized IBMFS, but not carriers, had worse survival after HCT (IBMFS hazard ratio [HR], 2.13; 95% confidence interval[CI], 1.40-3.24; P = .0004; carriers HR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.62-1.50; P = .86). Results were similar in analyses restricted to patients receiving reduced-intensity conditioning (n = 448; HR IBMFS = 2.39; P = .01). The excess mortality risk in unrecognized IBMFS attributed to death from organ failure (HR = 4.88; P < .0001). Genetic testing should be part of the diagnostic evaluation for all patients with SAA to tailor therapeutic regimens. Carriers of a pathogenic variant in an IBMFS gene can follow HCT regimens for acquired SAA.

IMPORTANCE: Cancer is the second leading cause of mortality in the US. Despite national decreases in cancer mortality, Black individuals continue to have the highest cancer death rates. OBJECTIVE: To examine national trends in cancer mortality from 1999 to 2019 among Black individuals by demographic characteristics and to compare cancer death rates in 2019 among Black individuals with rates in other racial and ethnic groups. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This serial cross-sectional study used US national death certificate data obtained from the National Center for Health Statistics and included all cancer deaths among individuals aged 20 years or older from January 1999 to December 2019. Data were analyzed from June 2021 to January 2022. EXPOSURES: Age, sex, and race and ethnicity. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Trends in age-standardized mortality rates and average annual percent change (AAPC) in rates were estimated by cancer type, age, sex, and race and ethnicity. RESULTS: From 1999 to 2019, 1 361 663 million deaths from cancer occurred among Black individuals. The overall cancer death rate significantly decreased among Black men (AAPC, −2.6%; 95% CI, −2.6% to −2.6%) and women (AAPC, −1.5%; 95% CI, −1.7% to −1.3%). Death rates decreased for most cancer types, with the greatest decreases observed for lung cancer among men (AAPC, −3.8%; 95% CI, −4.0% to −3.6%) and stomach cancer among women (AAPC, −3.4%; 95% CI, −3.6% to −3.2%). Lung cancer mortality also had the largest absolute decreases among men (−78.5 per 100 000 population) and women (−19.5 per 100 000 population). We observed a significant increase in deaths from liver cancer among men (AAPC, 3.8%; 95% CI, 3.0%-4.6%) and women (AAPC, 1.8%; 95% CI, 1.2%-2.3%) aged 65 to 79 years. There was also an increasing trend in uterus cancer mortality among women aged 35 to 49 years (2.9%; 95% CI, 2.3% to 2.6%), 50 to 64 years (2.3%; 95% CI, 2.0% to 2.6%), and 65 to 79 years (1.6%; 95% CI, 1.2% to 2.0%). In 2019, Black men and women had the highest cancer mortality rates compared with non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Native, Asian or Pacific Islander, and White individuals and Hispanic/Latino individuals. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this cross-sectional study, there were substantial decreases in cancer death rates among Black individuals from 1999 to 2019, but higher cancer death rates among Black men and women compared with other racial and ethnic groups persisted in 2019. Targeted interventions appear to be needed to eliminate social inequalities that contribute to Black individuals having higher cancer mortality.

Background Previous studies that showed an association between smoking and adenocarcinomas of the esophagus and esophagogastric junction were limited in their ability to assess differences by tumor site, sex, dose-response, and duration of cigarette smoking cessation. Methods We used primary data from 10 population-based case-control studies and two cohort studies from the Barrett's Esophagus and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Consortium. Analyses were restricted to white non-Hispanic men and women. Patients were classified as having esophageal adenocarcinoma (n = 1540), esophagogastric junctional adenocarcinoma (n = 1450), or a combination of both (all adenocarcinoma; n = 2990). Control subjects (n = 9453) were population based. Associations between pack-years of cigarette smoking and risks of adenocarcinomas were assessed, as well as their potential modification by sex and duration of smoking cessation. Study-specific odds ratios (ORs) estimated using multivariable logistic regression models, adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, education, and gastroesophageal reflux, were pooled using a meta-analytic methodology to generate summary odds ratios. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results The summary odds ratios demonstrated strong associations between cigarette smoking and esophageal adenocarcinoma (OR = 1.96, 95% confidence interval [CI] -- 1.64 to 2.34), esophagogastric junctional adenocarcinoma (OR = 2.18, 95% CI = 1.84 to 2.58), and all adenocarcinoma (OR = 2.08, 95% CI = 1.83 to 2.37). In addition, there was a strong dose-response association between pack-years of cigarette smoking and each outcome (P < .001). Compared with current smokers, longer smoking cessation was associated with a decreased risk of all adenocarcinoma after adjusting for pack-years ( Conclusions Cigarette smoking is associated with increased risks of adenocarcinomas of the esophagus and esophagogastric junction in white men and women; compared with current smoking, smoking cessation was associated with reduced risks. DOI: 10.1093/jnci/djq289

Background Several plausible mechanisms, including fat, iron, heterocyclic amines, and N-nitroso compounds, link meat intake with chronic liver disease (CLD) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Few studies have investigated these associations. Methods We prospectively examined the relationship between meat and associated exposures with CLD mortality (n = 551; not including HCC) and HCC incidence (n = 338) in 495006 men and women of the National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the fifth (Q5) vs the first (Q1) quintile were estimated from multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression models. All tests of statistical significance were two-sided. Results We found inverse associations between white meat and risk of CLD (HR = 0.52, 95% CI = 0.39 to 0.70, 7.5 vs 18.2 cases per 100000 person-years) and HCC (HR -- 0.52, 95% CI = 0.36 to 0.77, 5.8 vs 14.3 cases per 100000 person-years). Red meat was associated with higher risk of CLD (HR = 2.59, 95% CI = 1.86 to 3.61, 22.3 vs 6.2 cases per 100000 person-years) and HCC (HR = 1.74, 95% CI = 1.16 to 2.61, 14.9 vs 5.7 cases per 100000 person-years). Among fat types, results were strongest for saturated fat (for CLD, HR = 3.50, 95% CI = 2.48 to 4.96, 23.0 vs 6.5 cases per 100000 person-years; for HCC, HR = 1.87, 95% CI = 1.23 to 2.85, 14.5 vs 6.3 cases per 100000 person-years). After mutual adjustment, risk estimates persisted for saturated fat, red meat, and white meat. Heine iron, processed meat, nitrate, and nitrite were positively associated with CLD but not with HCC. Individual heterocyclic amines, 2-amino-3,4,8-trimethylimidazo[4,5,-f]quinoxaline (DiMelQx), 2-amino-3,8-dimethylimidazo[4,5-f] quinoxaline (MeIQx), and 2-amino-l-methyl-6-phenyl-imidazo[4,5-b]pyridine (PhlP), were not associated with either outcome. Conclusion Our results suggest that red meat and saturated fat may be associated with increased CLD and HCC risk, whereas white meat may be associated with reduced risk. DOI 10.1093/jnci/djq301

Background: There is probable evidence that some types of fruit and vegetables provide protection against many cancers. Objective: We hypothesized that fruit and vegetable intakes are inversely related to the incidence of total cancers among women and men aged > 50 y. Design: We performed a prospective study among the cohort of the National Institutes of Health--AARP Diet and Health Study. We merged the MyPyramid Equivalents Database (version 1.0) with food-frequency-questionnaire data to calculate cup equivalents for fruit and vegetables. From 1995 to 2003, we identified 15,792 and 35,071 cancer cases in 195,229 women and 288,109 men, respectively. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate multivariate relative risks (RRs) and 95% CIs associated with the highest compared with the lowest quintile (Q) of fruit and vegetable intakes. Results: Fruit intake was not associated with the risk of total cancer among women ([RR.sub.Q5 vs Q1] = 0.99; 95% CI: 0.94, 1.05; P trend = 0.059) or men ([RR.sub.Q5 vs Q1] = 0.98; 95% CI: 0.95, 1.02; P for trend = 0.17). Vegetable intake was not associated with risk of total cancer among women ([RR.sub.Q5 vs Q1] = 1.04; 95% CI: 0.98, 1.09; P for trend = 0.084), but was associated with a significant decrease in risk in men ([RR.sub.Q5 vs Q1] = 0.94; 95% CI: 0.91, 0.97; P trend = 0.004). This significant finding among men was no longer evident when we limited the analysis to men who never smoked ([RR.sub.Q5 vs Q1] = 0.97; 95% CI: 0.91, 1.04; P for trend = 0.474). Conclusions: Intake of fruit and vegetables was generally unrelated to total cancer incidence in this cohort. Residual confounding by smoking is a likely explanation for the observed inverse association with vegetable intake among men.

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are major components of air pollution and tobacco smoke, two known risk factors for cardiovascular diseases. VOCs are ubiquitous in the environment and originate from a wide range of sources, including the burning of biomass, fossil fuels, and consumer products. Direct evidence for associations between specific VOCs and ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality in the general population is scarce.

BackgroundLittle is known about the health harms associated with low-intensity smoking in Asians who, on average, smoke fewer cigarettes and start smoking at a later age than their Western counterparts.MethodsIn this pooled analysis of 738 013 Asians from 16 prospective cohorts, we quantified the associations of low-intensity (<5 cigarettes/day) and late initiation (≥35 years) of smoking with mortality outcomes. HRs and 95% CIs were estimated for each cohort by Cox regression. Cohort-specific HRs were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis.FindingsDuring a mean follow-up of 11.3 years, 92 068 deaths were ascertained. Compared with never smokers, current smokers who consumed <5 cigarettes/day or started smoking after age 35 years had a 16%–41% increased risk of all-cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD), respiratory disease mortality and a >twofold risk of lung cancer mortality. Furthermore, current smokers who started smoking after age 35 and smoked <5 cigarettes/day had significantly elevated risks of all-cause (HRs (95% CIs)=1.14 (1.05 to 1.23)), CVD (1.27 (1.08 to 1.49)) and respiratory disease (1.54 (1.17 to 2.01)) mortality. Even smokers who smoked <5 cigarettes/day but quit smoking before the age of 45 years had a 16% elevated risk of all-cause mortality; however, the risk declined further with increasing duration of abstinence.ConclusionsOur study showed that smokers who smoked a small number of cigarettes or started smoking later in life also experienced significantly elevated all-cause and major cause-specific mortality but benefited from cessation. There is no safe way to smoke—not smoking is always the best choice.

IMPORTANCE: Osteosarcoma, the most common malignant bone tumor in children and adolescents, occurs in a high number of cancer predisposition syndromes that are defined by highly penetrant germline mutations. The germline genetic susceptibility to osteosarcoma outside of familial cancer syndromes remains unclear. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the germline genetic architecture of 1244 patients with osteosarcoma. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Whole-exome sequencing (n = 1104) or targeted sequencing (n = 140) of the DNA of 1244 patients with osteosarcoma from 10 participating international centers or studies was conducted from April 21, 2014, to September 1, 2017. The results were compared with the DNA of 1062 individuals without cancer assembled internally from 4 participating studies who underwent comparable whole-exome sequencing and 27 173 individuals of non-Finnish European ancestry who were identified through the Exome Aggregation Consortium (ExAC) database. In the analysis, 238 high-interest cancer-susceptibility genes were assessed followed by testing of the mutational burden across 736 additional candidate genes. Principal component analyses were used to identify 732 European patients with osteosarcoma and 994 European individuals without cancer, with outliers removed for patient-control group comparisons. Patients were subsequently compared with individuals in the ExAC group. All data were analyzed from June 1, 2017, to July 1, 2019. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The frequency of rare pathogenic or likely pathogenic genetic variants. RESULTS: Among 1244 patients with osteosarcoma (mean [SD] age at diagnosis, 16 [8.9] years [range, 2-80 years]; 684 patients [55.0%] were male), an analysis restricted to individuals with European ancestry indicated a significantly higher pathogenic or likely pathogenic variant burden in 238 high-interest cancer-susceptibility genes among patients with osteosarcoma compared with the control group (732 vs 994, respectively; P = 1.3 × 10−18). A pathogenic or likely pathogenic cancer-susceptibility gene variant was identified in 281 of 1004 patients with osteosarcoma (28.0%), of which nearly three-quarters had a variant that mapped to an autosomal-dominant gene or a known osteosarcoma-associated cancer predisposition syndrome gene. The frequency of a pathogenic or likely pathogenic cancer-susceptibility gene variant was 128 of 1062 individuals (12.1%) in the control group and 2527 of 27 173 individuals (9.3%) in the ExAC group. A higher than expected frequency of pathogenic or likely pathogenic variants was observed in genes not previously linked to osteosarcoma (eg, CDKN2A, MEN1, VHL, POT1, APC, MSH2, and ATRX) and in the Li-Fraumeni syndrome-associated gene, TP53. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this study, approximately one-fourth of patients with osteosarcoma unselected for family history had a highly penetrant germline mutation requiring additional follow-up analysis and possible genetic counseling with cascade testing.

Former smokers now outnumber current smokers in many developed countries, and current smokers are smoking fewer cigarettes per day. Some data suggest that lung function decline normalises with smoking cessation; however, mechanistic studies suggest that lung function decline could continue. We hypothesised that former smokers and low-intensity current smokers have accelerated lung function decline compared with never-smokers, including among those without prevalent lung disease.

IMPORTANCE: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in the United States. Despite substantial declines in CVD mortality rates during past decades, progress against cardiovascular deaths in midlife has stagnated, with rates increased in some US racial/ethnic groups. OBJECTIVE: To examine the trends in premature (ages 25-64 years) mortality from CVD from 2000 to 2015 by demographics and county-level factors, including education, rurality, and the prevalence of smoking, obesity, and diabetes. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This descriptive study used US national mortality data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data set and included all CVD deaths among individuals ages 25 to 64 years from January 2000 to December 2015. The data analysis began in February 2018. EXPOSURES: Age, sex, race/ethnicity, and county-level factors. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Age-standardized mortality rates and average annual percent change (AAPC) in rates by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and county-level factors (in quintiles) and relative risks of CVD mortality across quintiles of each county-level factor. RESULTS: In 2000 to 2015, 2.3 million CVD deaths occurred among individuals age 25 to 64 years in the United States. There were significant declines in CVD mortality for black, Latinx, and Asian and Pacific Islander individuals (AAPC: range, −1.7 to −3.2%), although black people continued to have the highest CVD mortality rates. Mortality rates were second highest for American Indian/Alaskan Native individuals and increased significantly among those aged 25 to 49 years (AAPC: women, 2.1%; men, 1.3%). For white individuals, mortality rates plateaued among women age 25 to 49 years (AAPC, 0.05%). Declines in mortality rates were observed for most major CVD subtypes except for ischemic heart disease, which was stable in white women and increased in American Indian/Alaska Native women, hypertensive heart disease, for which significant increases in rates were observed in most racial/ethnic groups, and endocarditis, for which rates increased in white individuals and American Indian/Alaska Native men. Counties with the highest prevalence of diabetes (quintile 5 vs quintile 1: relative risk range 1.6-1.8 for white individuals and 1.4-1.6 for black individuals) had the most risk of CVD mortality. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: There have been substantial declines in premature CVD mortality in much of the US population. However, increases in CVD mortality before age 50 years among American Indian/Alaska Native individuals, flattening rates in white people, and overall increases in deaths from hypertensive disease suggest that targeted public health interventions are needed to prevent these premature deaths.

Mosaic protein truncating variants (PTVs) in the phosphatase, Mg2+/Mn2+dependent 1D (PPM1D) gene in blood-derived DNA have been associated with increased risk of breast cancer. We analyzed PPM1DPTVs in blood from 3817 breast cancer cases and 3058 controls by deep sequencing of a previously defined region in exon 6 of PPM1D. We identified 50 of 6875 (0.73%) participants having a mosaic PPM1DPTV. We observed a higher frequency of mosaic PPM1DPTVs with increasing age (Ptrend= 2.9 × 10−6). We did not observe an overall association between PPM1DPTVs and increased breast cancer risk (OR = 1.51, 95% CI = 0.84–2.71). Evidence for an association was observed in a subset of cases with DNA collected 1-year or more before breast cancer diagnosis (OR = 3.44, 95% CI = 1.62–7.30, P-value = 0.001); however, no significant association was observed for the larger series of cases with DNA collected post diagnosis (OR = 1.01, 95% CI = 0.51–2.01, P-value = 0.98). Our study indicates that the PPM1DPTVs are present at higher rates than previously reported and the frequency of PPM1DPTVs increases with age. We observed limited evidence for an association between mosaic PPM1DPTVs and breast cancer risk, suggesting mosaic PPM1DPTVs in the blood likely do not influence risk of breast cancer.

ObjectiveCross-sectional data indicate that systemic inflammation is important in oesophageal adenocarcinoma. We conducted a prospective study to assess whether prediagnostic circulating markers of inflammation were associated with oesophageal adenocarcinoma and to what extent they mediated associations of obesity and cigarette smoking with cancer risk.DesignThis nested case–control study included 296 oesophageal adenocarcinoma cases and 296 incidence density matched controls from seven prospective cohort studies. We quantitated 69 circulating inflammation markers using Luminex-based multiplex assays. Conditional logistic regression models estimated associations between inflammation markers and oesophageal adenocarcinoma, as well as direct and indirect effects of obesity and smoking on risk of malignancy.ResultsSoluble tumour necrosis factor receptor 2 (sTNFR2) (ORsquartile 4 vs 1=2.67, 95% CI 1.52 to 4.68) was significantly associated with oesophageal adenocarcinoma. Additional markers close to the adjusted significance threshold included C reactive protein, serum amyloid A, lipocalin-2, resistin, interleukin (IL) 3, IL17A, soluble IL-6 receptor and soluble vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 3. Adjustment for body mass index, waist circumference or smoking status slightly attenuated biomarker–cancer associations. Mediation analysis indicated that sTNFR2 may account for 33% (p=0.005) of the effect of waist circumference on oesophageal adenocarcinoma risk. Resistin, plasminogen activator inhibitor 1, C reactive protein and serum amyloid A were also identified as potential mediators of obesity–oesophageal adenocarcinoma associations. For smoking status, only plasminogen activator inhibitor 1 was a nominally statistically significant (p<0.05) mediator of cancer risk.ConclusionThis prospective study provides evidence of a link between systemic inflammation and oesophageal adenocarcinoma risk. In addition, this study provides the first evidence that indirect effects of excess adiposity and cigarette smoking, via systemic inflammation, increase the risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma.

IMPORTANCE: Tobacco products have changed in recent years. Contemporary mortality risk estimates of combustible tobacco product use are needed. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the mortality risks associated with current and former use of cigars, pipes, and cigarettes. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The National Longitudinal Mortality Study is a longitudinal population-based, nationally representative health survey with mortality follow-up that includes demographic and other information from the Current Population Survey, tobacco product use information from the Tobacco Use Supplement, and mortality data from the National Death Index. In this study, participants provided tobacco use information at baseline in surveys starting from 1985 and were followed for mortality through the end of 2011. The study includes 357 420 participants who reported exclusively using cigar, pipes, or cigarettes or reported never using any type of tobacco product. EXPOSURES: Current or former exclusive use of any cigar (little cigar, cigarillos, large cigar), traditional pipe, or cigarette and never tobacco use. Information on current daily and nondaily use was also collected. Estimates adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, and survey year. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: All-cause and cause-specific mortality as identified as the primary cause of death from death certificate information. RESULTS: Of the 357 420 persons included in the analysis, the majority of current and former cigar and pipe smokers were male (79.3%-98.0%), and smokers were more evenly divided by sex (46% of current daily smokers were male). There were 51 150 recorded deaths during follow-up. Exclusive current cigarette smokers (hazard ratio [HR], 1.98; 95% CI, 1.93-2.02) and exclusive current cigar smokers (HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.03-1.38) had higher all-cause mortality risks than never tobacco users. Exclusive current cigarette smokers (HR, 4.06; 95% CI, 3.84-4.29), exclusive current cigar smokers (HR, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.11-2.32), and exclusive current pipe smokers (HR, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.05-2.38) had an elevated risk of dying from a tobacco-related cancer (including bladder, esophagus, larynx, lung, oral cavity, and pancreas). Among current nondaily cigarette users, statistically significant associations were observed with deaths from lung cancer (HR, 6.24; 95% CI, 5.17-7.54), oral cancer (HR, 4.62; 95% CI, 1.84-11.58), circulatory death (HR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.30-1.57), cardiovascular death (HR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.11-1.39), cerebrovascular death (stroke) (HR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.12-1.74), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (HR, 7.66; 95% CI, 6.09-9.64) as well as for daily smokers. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This study provides further evidence that exclusive use of cigar, pipes, and cigarettes each confers significant mortality risks.

IMPORTANCE: Case-control studies show a possible relationship between oral bacteria and head and neck squamous cell cancer (HNSCC). Prospective studies are needed to examine the temporal relationship between oral microbiome and subsequent risk of HNSCC. OBJECTIVE: To prospectively examine associations between the oral microbiome and incident HNSCC. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This nested case-control study was carried out in 2 prospective cohort studies: the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study II Nutrition Cohort (CPS-II) and the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO). Among 122 004 participants, 129 incident patient cases of HNSCC were identified during an average 3.9 years of follow-up. Two controls per patient case (n = 254) were selected through incidence density sampling, matched on age, sex, race/ethnicity, and time since mouthwash collection. All participants provided mouthwash samples and were cancer-free at baseline. EXPOSURES: Oral microbiome composition and specific bacterial abundances were determined through bacterial 16S rRNA gene sequencing. Overall oral microbiome composition and specific taxa abundances were compared for the case group and the control group, using PERMANOVA and negative binomial generalized linear models, respectively, controlling for age, sex, race, cohort, smoking, alcohol, and oral human papillomavirus-16 status. Taxa with a 2-sided false discovery rate (FDR)-adjusted P-value (q-value) &lt;.10 were considered significant. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Incident HNSCC. RESULTS: The study included 58 patient cases from CPS-II (mean [SD] age, 71.0 [6.4] years; 16 [27.6%] women) and 71 patient cases from PLCO (mean [SD] age, 62.7 [4.8] years; 13 [18.3%] women). Two controls per patient case (n = 254) were selected through incidence density sampling, matched on age, sex, race/ethnicity, and time since mouthwash collection. Head and neck squamous cell cancer cases and controls were similar with respect to age, sex, and race. Patients in the case group were more often current tobacco smokers, tended to have greater alcohol consumption (among drinkers), and to be positive for oral carriage of papillomavirus-16. Overall microbiome composition was not associated with risk of HNSCC. Greater abundance of genera Corynebacterium (fold change [FC], 0.58; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.41-0.80; q = .06) and Kingella (FC, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.46-0.86; q = .08) were associated with decreased risk of HNSCC, potentially owing to carcinogen metabolism capacity. These findings were consistent for both cohorts and by cohort follow-up time. The observed relationships tended to be stronger for larynx cancer and for individuals with a history of tobacco use. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This study demonstrates that greater oral abundance of commensal Corynebacterium and Kingella is associated with decreased risk of HNSCC, with potential implications for cancer prevention.

BackgroundColorectal cancers are the third most common cancers in women and men in the USA. While dietary and lifestyle factors such as Western diet, physical inactivity and obesity have been linked to an increased risk of this malignancy, the mechanisms for these associations are unclear. GI hormones, including ghrelin, are involved in energy balance by mediating appetite and metabolism; however, the association between ghrelin and colorectal cancer has not been studied.MethodsWe conducted a case–control study nested within the all-male Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention Study of Finnish smokers (aged 50–69 years) to examine serum ghrelin concentration and colorectal cancer risk. Data from 284 colon and 239 rectal cancers and 523 controls (matched on age, date of blood draw and serum availability) were analysed. ORs and 95% CIs were calculated using multivariable (conditional) logistic regression.ResultsOverall, low-serum ghrelin was significantly associated with increased risk of colorectal cancer (Q1 vs Q4: OR:1.57, 95% CI 1.05 to 2.34). For individuals developing tumours within 10 years of blood draw, those in the lowest quartile of serum ghrelin concentrations were statistically significantly more likely to develop colorectal cancers than those with higher serum ghrelin concentrations (OR: 10.86, 95% CI 5.01 to 23.55). However, for individuals with tumours developing more than 20 years after blood draw, low-serum ghrelin concentrations were associated with a decreased risk of colorectal cancer relative to those with the highest serum ghrelin concentrations (OR: 0.26, 95% CI 0.11 to 0.64).ConclusionLow-serum ghrelin was associated with an increased colorectal cancer risk within 10 years of blood draw with a decreased risk for developing colorectal cancer more than 20 years after blood draw. These results suggest that ghrelin concentrations may vary across the carcinogenic process.

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

Selecting individuals on the basis of model-predicted risks has been reported to improve lung cancer screening efficiency. On the basis of case-control studies, time to first cigarette (TTFC), a nicotine dependency measurement, has been a strong independent predictor of lung cancer risk. Our objective was to verify the TTFC–lung cancer association in the prospective National Lung Screening Trial and evaluate whether adding TTFC can improve lung cancer risk-prediction models.

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

IMPORTANCE: The causal direction and magnitude of the association between telomere length and incidence of cancer and non-neoplastic diseases is uncertain owing to the susceptibility of observational studies to confounding and reverse causation. OBJECTIVE: To conduct a Mendelian randomization study, using germline genetic variants as instrumental variables, to appraise the causal relevance of telomere length for risk of cancer and non-neoplastic diseases. DATA SOURCES: Genomewide association studies (GWAS) published up to January 15, 2015. STUDY SELECTION: GWAS of noncommunicable diseases that assayed germline genetic variation and did not select cohort or control participants on the basis of preexisting diseases. Of 163 GWAS of noncommunicable diseases identified, summary data from 103 were available. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Summary association statistics for single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are strongly associated with telomere length in the general population. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for disease per standard deviation (SD) higher telomere length due to germline genetic variation. RESULTS: Summary data were available for 35 cancers and 48 non-neoplastic diseases, corresponding to 420 081 cases (median cases, 2526 per disease) and 1 093 105 controls (median, 6789 per disease). Increased telomere length due to germline genetic variation was generally associated with increased risk for site-specific cancers. The strongest associations (ORs [95% CIs] per 1-SD change in genetically increased telomere length) were observed for glioma, 5.27 (3.15-8.81); serous low-malignant-potential ovarian cancer, 4.35 (2.39-7.94); lung adenocarcinoma, 3.19 (2.40-4.22); neuroblastoma, 2.98 (1.92-4.62); bladder cancer, 2.19 (1.32-3.66); melanoma, 1.87 (1.55-2.26); testicular cancer, 1.76 (1.02-3.04); kidney cancer, 1.55 (1.08-2.23); and endometrial cancer, 1.31 (1.07-1.61). Associations were stronger for rarer cancers and at tissue sites with lower rates of stem cell division. There was generally little evidence of association between genetically increased telomere length and risk of psychiatric, autoimmune, inflammatory, diabetic, and other non-neoplastic diseases, except for coronary heart disease (OR, 0.78 [95% CI, 0.67-0.90]), abdominal aortic aneurysm (OR, 0.63 [95% CI, 0.49-0.81]), celiac disease (OR, 0.42 [95% CI, 0.28-0.61]) and interstitial lung disease (OR, 0.09 [95% CI, 0.05-0.15]). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: It is likely that longer telomeres increase risk for several cancers but reduce risk for some non-neoplastic diseases, including cardiovascular diseases.

Reduction of premature mortality is a UN Sustainable Development Goal. Unlike other high-income countries, age-adjusted mortality in the USA plateaued in 2010 and increased slightly in 2015, possibly because of rising premature mortality. We aimed to analyse trends in mortality in the USA between 1999 and 2014 in people aged 25–64 years by age group, sex, and race and ethnicity, and to identify specific causes of death underlying the temporal trends.

BackgroundThere is limited information about the hazards of cigarettes, smokeless tobacco and waterpipe in the Middle East. The aim of this study was to determine the association between different types of tobacco use and earlier death in the Golestan Cohort Study.MethodsThe Study includes 50 045 adults (aged 40–75 years) from north eastern Iran. The baseline questionnaire (2004–2008) assessed information about use of cigarettes, chewing tobacco (nass) and waterpipe. To assess the use of each type of tobacco compared with never tobacco users, we used Cox regression models adjusted for age, socioeconomic status, area of residence, education and other tobacco used, and stratified by sex, ethnicity and opium use.Results17% of participants reported a history of cigarette smoking, 7.5% chewing tobacco (nass) and 1.1% smoking waterpipe, and these figures declined in the later birth cohorts. During a median follow-up of 8 years, 4524 deaths occurred (mean age 64.8+9.9 years). Current (HR=1.44; 95% CI 1.28 to 1.61) and former (HR=1.35; 95% CI 1.16 to 1.56) cigarette smokers had higher overall mortality relative to never tobacco users. The highest cigarette-associated risk was for cancer death among current heavy smokers (HR=2.32; 95% CI 1.66 to 3.24). Current nass chewing was associated with overall mortality (HR=1.16; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.34), and there was a 61% higher risk of cancer death in people chewing nass more than five times a day. We observed an association between the cumulative lifetime waterpipe use (waterpipe-years≥28) and both overall (HR=1.66; 95% CI 1.11 to 2.47), and cancer mortality (HR=2.82; 95% CI 1.30 to 6.11).ConclusionsRegular use of cigarettes, smokeless tobacco and waterpipe were associated with the risk of earlier death (particularly from cancer) in our cohort.

ObjectiveAlthough several genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of non-cardia gastric cancer have been published, more novel association signals could be exploited by combining individual studies together, which will further elucidate the genetic susceptibility of non-cardia gastric cancer.DesignWe conducted a meta-analysis of two published Chinese GWAS studies (2031 non-cardia gastric cancer cases and 4970 cancer-free controls) and followed by genotyping of additional 3564 cases and 4637 controls in two stages.ResultsThe overall meta-analysis revealed two new association signals. The first was a novel locus at 5q14.3 and marked by rs7712641 (per-allele OR=0.84, 95% CI 0.80 to 0.88; p=1.21×10−11). This single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) marker maps to the intron of the long non-coding RNA, lnc-POLR3G-4 (XLOC_004464), which we observed has lower expression in non-cardia gastric tumour compared with matched normal tissue (Pwilcoxon signed-rank=7.20×10−4). We also identified a new signal at the 1q22 locus, rs80142782 (per-allele OR=0.62; 95% CI 0.56 to 0.69; p=1.71×10−19), which was independent of the previously reported SNP at the same locus, rs4072037 (per-allele OR=0.74; 95% CI 0.69 to 0.79; p=6.28×10−17). Analysis of the new SNP conditioned on the known SNP showed that the new SNP remained genome-wide significant (Pconditional=3.47×10−8). Interestingly, rs80142782 has a minor allele frequency of 0.05 in East Asians but is monomorphic in both European and African populations.ConclusionThese findings add new evidence for inherited genetic susceptibility to non-cardia gastric cancer and provide further clues to its aetiology in the Han Chinese population.

IMPORTANCE: A growing proportion of US smokers now smoke fewer than 10 cigarettes per day (CPD), and that proportion will likely rise in the future. The health effects of smoking only a few CPD over one’s lifetime are less understood than are the effects of heavier smoking, although many smokers believe that their level is modest. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the associations of long-term smoking of fewer than 1 or 1 to 10 CPD (low intensity) with all-cause and cause-specific mortality compared with never smoking cigarettes. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Prospective cohort study of 290 215 adults in the National Institutes of Health–AARP (formerly known as the American Association of Retired Persons) Diet and Health Study who were aged 59 to 82 years in calendar years 2004-2005 (baseline). Data were gathered with a questionnaire assessing lifetime cigarette smoking history. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs were determined for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality through the end of 2011. Hazard ratios and 95% CIs were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression models using age as the underlying time metric and adjusted for sex, race/ethnicity, educational level, physical activity, and alcohol intake. Data analysis was conducted from December 15, 2015, to September 30, 2016. EXPOSURES: Current and historical smoking intensity during 9 previous age periods (from &lt;15 years to ≥70 years) over the lifetime assessed on the 2004-2005 questionnaire. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: All-cause and cause-specific mortality among current, former, and never smokers. RESULTS: Of the 290 215 cohort participants who completed the 2004-2005 questionnaire, 168 140 were men (57.9%); the mean (SD) age was 71 (5.3) years (range, 59-82 years). Most people who smoked fewer than 1 or 1 to 10 CPD at baseline reported smoking substantially higher numbers of CPD earlier in their lives. Nevertheless, 159 (9.1%) and 1493 (22.5%) of these individuals reported consistently smoking fewer than 1 or 1 to 10 CPD in each age period that they smoked, respectively. Relative to never smokers, consistent smokers of fewer than 1 CPD (HR, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.07-2.51) and 1 to 10 CPD (HR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.64-2.13) had a higher all-cause mortality risk. Associations were similar in women and men for all-cause mortality and were observed across a range of smoking-related causes of death, with an especially strong association with lung cancer (HR, 9.12; 95% CI, 2.92-28.47, and HR, 11.61; 95% CI, 8.25-16.35 for &lt;1 and 1-10 CPD, respectively). Former smokers who had consistently smoked fewer than 1 or 1 to 10 CPD had progressively lower risks with younger age at cessation. For example, the HRs for consistent smokers of fewer than 1 and 1 to 10 CPD who quit at 50 years or older were 1.44 (95% CI, 1.12-1.85) and 1.42 (95% CI, 1.27-1.59), respectively. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This study provides evidence that individuals who smoke fewer than 1 or 1 to 10 CPD over their lifetime have higher mortality risks than never smokers and would benefit from cessation. These results provide further evidence that there is no risk-free level of exposure to tobacco smoke.

Objective markers of ultraprocessed foods (UPF) may improve the assessment of UPF intake and provide insight into how UPF influences health.

Mounting evidence suggests that copy number variations (CNVs) can contribute to cancer susceptibility. The main goal of this study was to evaluate the role of germline CNVs in melanoma predisposition in high-risk melanoma families. We used genome-wide tiling comparative genomic hybridization and single nucleotide polymorphism arrays to characterize CNVs in 335 individuals (240 melanoma cases) from American melanoma-prone families (22 with germline CDKN2Aor CDK4mutations). We found that the global burden of overall CNVs (or deletions or duplications separately) was not significantly associated with case-control or CDKN2A/CDK4mutation status after accounting for the familial dependence. However, we identified several rare CNVs that either involved known melanoma genes (e.g., PARP1, CDKN2A) or cosegregated with melanoma (duplication on 10q23.23, 3p12.2 and deletions on 8q424.3, 2q22.1) in families without mutations in known melanoma high-risk genes. Some of these CNVs were correlated with expression changes in disrupted genes based on RNASeq data from a subset of melanoma cases included in the CNV study. These results suggest that rare cosegregating CNVs may influence melanoma susceptibility in some melanoma-prone families and genes found in our study warrant further evaluation in future genetic analyses of melanoma.

High rates of APOBEC-signature mutations are found in many tumors, but factors affecting this mutation pattern are not well understood. Here we explored the contribution of two common germline variants in the APOBEC3 region. SNP rs1014971 was associated with bladder cancer risk, increased APOBEC3B expression, and enrichment with APOBEC-signature mutations in bladder tumors. In contrast, a 30-kb deletion that eliminates APOBEC3B and creates an APOBEC3A–APOBEC3B chimera was not important in bladder cancer, whereas it was associated with breast cancer risk and enrichment with APOBEC-signature mutations in breast tumors. In vitro, APOBEC3B expression was predominantly induced by treatment with a DNA-damaging drug in bladder cancer cell lines, and APOBEC3A expression was induced as part of the antiviral interferon-stimulated response in breast cancer cell lines. These findings suggest a tissue-specific role of environmental oncogenic triggers, particularly in individuals with germline APOBEC3 risk variants.

IMPORTANCE: Leisure-time physical activity has been associated with lower risk of heart-disease and all-cause mortality, but its association with risk of cancer is not well understood. OBJECTIVE: To determine the association of leisure-time physical activity with incidence of common types of cancer and whether associations vary by body size and/or smoking. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We pooled data from 12 prospective US and European cohorts with self-reported physical activity (baseline, 1987-2004). We used multivariable Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals for associations of leisure-time physical activity with incidence of 26 types of cancer. Leisure-time physical activity levels were modeled as cohort-specific percentiles on a continuous basis and cohort-specific results were synthesized by random-effects meta-analysis. Hazard ratios for high vs low levels of activity are based on a comparison of risk at the 90th vs 10th percentiles of activity. The data analysis was performed from January 1, 2014, to June 1, 2015. EXPOSURES: Leisure-time physical activity of a moderate to vigorous intensity. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Incident cancer during follow-up. RESULTS: A total of 1.44 million participants (median [range] age, 59 [19-98] years; 57% female) and 186 932 cancers were included. High vs low levels of leisure-time physical activity were associated with lower risks of 13 cancers: esophageal adenocarcinoma (HR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.37-0.89), liver (HR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.55-0.98), lung (HR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.71-0.77), kidney (HR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.70-0.85), gastric cardia (HR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.64-0.95), endometrial (HR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.68-0.92), myeloid leukemia (HR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.70-0.92), myeloma (HR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.72-0.95), colon (HR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.77-0.91), head and neck (HR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.78-0.93), rectal (HR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.80-0.95), bladder (HR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.82-0.92), and breast (HR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.87-0.93). Body mass index adjustment modestly attenuated associations for several cancers, but 10 of 13 inverse associations remained statistically significant after this adjustment. Leisure-time physical activity was associated with higher risks of malignant melanoma (HR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.16-1.40) and prostate cancer (HR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.03-1.08). Associations were generally similar between overweight/obese and normal-weight individuals. Smoking status modified the association for lung cancer but not other smoking-related cancers. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Leisure-time physical activity was associated with lower risks of many cancer types. Health care professionals counseling inactive adults should emphasize that most of these associations were evident regardless of body size or smoking history, supporting broad generalizability of findings.

IMPORTANCE: Prospective studies are needed to examine the temporal relationship between oral human papillomavirus (HPV) detection and risk of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). Moreover, the oral cavity contains a wide spectrum of α-, β-, and γ-HPV types, but their association with risk of HNSCC is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To prospectively examine associations between α-, β-, and γ-HPV detection in the oral cavity and incident HNSCC. DESIGN: A nested case-control study was carried out among 96 650 participants, cancer free at baseline, with available mouthwash samples in 2 prospective cohort studies: (1) the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study II Nutrition Cohort and (2) the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. Incident cases of HNSCC (n = 132) were identified during an average 3.9 years of follow-up in both cohorts. Three controls per case (n = 396) were selected through incidence density sampling and matched on age, sex, race/ethnicity, and time since mouthwash collection. METHODS: Through a next-generation sequencing assay, DNA from α-, β-, and γ-HPV types were detected. Conditional logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs, adjusting for smoking history, alcohol consumption, and detection of HPV-16 for β- and γ-HPVs. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Incident HNSCC, which includes cancers of the oropharynx, oral cavity, and larynx. RESULTS: A total of 132 participants developed HNSCC during the follow-up period (103 men and 29 women; average age at baseline, 66.5 years). Oral HPV-16 detection was associated with incident HNSCC (OR, 7.1; 95% CI, 2.2-22.6), with positive association for oropharyngeal SCC (OR, 22.4; 95% CI, 1.8-276.7), but not for oral cavity (OR, 4.5; 95% CI, 0.6-34.7) or laryngeal SCCs (OR, 0.11; 95% CI, 0.01-834.80). Detection of β1-HPV-5 and β2-HPV-38 types, as well as γ-11 and γ-12 species, had ORs for HNSCC that ranged from 2.64 to 5.45 (P &lt; .01 for all comparisons). Detection of β1-HPV-5 type was associated with oropharyngeal (OR, 7.42; 95% CI, 0.98-56.82; P = .054), oral cavity (OR, 5.34; 95% CI, 1.51-18.80; P = .01), and laryngeal SCCs (OR, 2.71; 95% CI, 1.00-7.43; P = .05), whereas γ11- and γ12-HPV species were associated with both oral cavity (OR, 7.47; 95% CI, 1.21-46.17; P = .03; and OR, 6.71; 95% CI, 1.47-30.75; P = .01, respectively) and laryngeal SCCs (OR, 7.49; 95% CI, 1.10-51.04; P = .04 and OR, 5.31; 95% CI, 1.13-24.95; P = .03, respectively). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This study demonstrates that HPV-16 detection precedes the incidence of oropharyngeal SCC. Associations of other HPVs, including γ11- and γ12-HPV species and β1-HPV-5 type suggest a broader role for HPVs in HNSCC etiology.

Mosaic loss of chromosome Y (mLOY) leading to gonosomal XY/XO commonly occurs during aging, particularly in smokers. We investigated whether mLOY was associated with non-hematological cancer in three prospective cohorts (8,679 cancer cases and 5,110 cancer-free controls) and genetic susceptibility to mLOY. Overall, mLOY was observed in 7% of men, and its prevalence increased with age (per-year odds ratio (OR) = 1.13, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.12–1.15; P < 2 × 10−16), reaching 18.7% among men over 80 years old. mLOY was associated with current smoking (OR = 2.35, 95% CI = 1.82–3.03; P = 5.55 × 10−11), but the association weakened with years after cessation. mLOY was not consistently associated with overall or specific cancer risk (for example, bladder, lung or prostate cancer) nor with cancer survival after diagnosis (multivariate-adjusted hazard ratio = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.73–1.04; P = 0.12). In a genome-wide association study, we observed the first example of a common susceptibility locus for genetic mosaicism, specifically mLOY, which maps to TCL1A at 14q32.13, marked by rs2887399 (OR = 1.55, 95% CI = 1.36–1.78; P = 1.37 × 10−10).

The application of whole-exome sequencing has led to the identification of high- and moderate-risk variants that contribute to cutaneous melanoma susceptibility. However, confirming disease-causing variants remains challenging. We applied a gene coexpression network analysis to prioritize the candidate genes identified from whole-exome sequencing of 34 melanoma-prone families, with at least three affected members sequenced per family (n = 119 cases). A coexpression network was constructed from genotype-tissue expression project, skin melanoma from the cancer genome atlas, and primary melanocyte cultures. We performed module-specific enrichment and focused on modules associated with pigmentation processes because they are the best-studied and most well-known risk factors for melanoma susceptibility. We found that pigmentation-associated modules across the four expression datasets examined were enriched for well-known melanoma susceptibility genes plus genes associated with pigmentation. We also used network properties to prioritize genes within pigmentation modules as candidate susceptibility genes. Integrating information from coexpression network analysis and variant prioritization, we identified 36 genes (such as DCT, TPCN2, TRPM1, ATP10A, and EPHA5) as potential melanoma risk genes in the families. Our approach also allowed us to link families with private gene mutations on the basis of gene coexpression patterns and thereby may provide an innovative perspective in gene identification in high-risk families.

Background: It is important to identify inherited bone marrow failure syndromes (IBMFS) in patients with aplastic anemia in order to provide appropriate therapy. IBMFS are diagnosed through genetic or other diagnostic testing but can also go unrecognized, particularly in adults who may lack classic IBMFS features. This is particularly critical in light of increasing identification of individuals with variants of uncertain significance (VUS) and those with single pathogenic variants in an autosomal recessive (AR) gene or X-linked recessive (XLR) gene in females (SPVR) (“carriers”) during evaluation. In this study of patients diagnosed with acquired severe aplastic anemia (SAA), we evaluated putatively causal variants in IBMFS genes to determine the frequency of patients with an unrecognized IBMFS or SPVR and assessed their association with outcomes after hematopoietic cell transplant (HCT).

The vertebrate glucocorticoid receptor (GR) is cytoplasmic without hormone and localizes to the nucleus after hormone binding. GR has two nuclear localization signals (NLS): NL1 is similar in sequence to the SV40 NLS; NL2 is poorly defined, residing in the ligand-binding domain. We found that GR displayed similar hormone-regulated compartmentalization in Saccharomyces cerevisiaeand required the Sxm1 nuclear import receptor for NL2-mediated import. Two metazoan homologues of Sxm1, importin 7 and importin 8, bound both NL1 and NL2, whereas importin α selectively bound NL1. In an in vitro nuclear import assay, both importin 7 and the importin α-importin β heterodimer could import a GR NL1 fragment. Under these conditions, full-length GR localized to nuclei in the presence but not absence of an unidentified component in cell extracts. Interestingly, importin 7, importin 8, and importin α bound GR even in the absence of hormone; thus, hormonal control of localization is exerted at a step downstream of import receptor binding.

Although previous results indicate that α-subunit residues Trp187, Val188, Phe189, Tyr190, and Pro194of the mouse nicotinic acetylcholine receptor are solvent-accessible and are in a position to contribute to the α-bungarotoxin (α-Bgtx) binding site (Spura, A., Russin, T. S., Freedman, N. D., Grant, M., McLaughlin, J. T., and Hawrot, E. (1999) Biochemistry38, 4912–4921), little is known about the accessibility of other residues within this region. By determining second-order rate constants for the reaction of cysteine mutants at α184–α197 with the thiol-specific biotin derivative (+)-biotinyl-3-maleimidopropionamidyl-3,6-dioxaoctanediamine, we now show that only very subtle differences in reactivity (∼10-fold) are detectable, arguing that the entire region is solvent-exposed. Importantly, biotinylation in the presence of saturating concentrations of the long neurotoxin α-Bgtx is significantly retarded for positions αW187C, αF189C, and reduced wild-type receptors (αCys192and αCys193), further emphasizing their major contribution to the α-Bgtx binding site. Interestingly, although biotinylation of position αV188C is not affected by the presence of α-Bgtx, erabutoxin a, which is a member of the short neurotoxin family, inhibits biotinylation at position αV188C, but not at αW187C or αF189C. Taken together, these results indicate that short and long neurotoxins establish interactions with distinct amino acids on the nicotinic acetylcholine receptor.

Lung cancer survivors are at high risk of a second primary lung cancer (SPLC). However, SPLC risk factors have not been established and the impact of tobacco smoking remains controversial. We examined the risk factors for SPLC across multiple epidemiologic cohorts and evaluated the impact of smoking cessation on reducing SPLC risk.

Cerhan: Janssen: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; NanoString: Research Funding; Celgene: Research Funding. Lee:Incyte: Research Funding; Syndax: Research Funding; Amgen: Research Funding; Novartis: Research Funding; Takeda: Research Funding; Kadmon: Consultancy, Research Funding; Pfizer: Consultancy, Research Funding; AstraZeneca: Research Funding.

IMPORTANCE: The United States has higher infant and youth mortality rates than other high-income countries, with striking disparities by racial/ethnic group. Understanding changing trends by age and race/ethnicity for leading causes of death is imperative for focused intervention. OBJECTIVE: To estimate trends in US infant and youth mortality rates from 1999 to 2015 by age group and race/ethnicity, identify leading causes of death, and compare mortality rates with Canada and England/Wales. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This descriptive study analyzed death certificate data from the US National Center for Health Statistics, Statistics Canada, and the UK Office of National Statistics for all deaths among individuals younger than 25 years. The study took place from January 1, 1999, to December 31, 2015, and analyses started in September 2017. EXPOSURES: Race/ethnicity. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Average annual percent changes in mortality rates from 1999 to 2015 and absolute rate change between 1999 to 2002 and 2012 to 2015 for each age group, race/ethnicity, and cause of death. RESULTS: Among individuals from birth to age 24 years, 1 169 537 deaths occurred in the United States, 80 540 in Canada, and 121 183 in England/Wales from 1999 to 2015. In the United States, 64% of deaths occurred in male individuals and 52.6% occurred in white individuals (25.1% deaths occurred in black individuals and 17.9% in Latino individuals). All-cause mortality declined for all age groups (infants younger than 1 year [38.5% of deaths], children aged 1-9 years [10.6%], early adolescents aged 10-14 years [5%], late adolescents aged 15-19 years [17.7%], and young adults aged 20-24 years [28.1%]) in the United States, Canada, and England/Wales from 1999 to 2015. However, rates were highest in the United States. Within the United States, annual declines in all-cause mortality rates occurred among all age groups of black, Latino, and white individuals, except for white individuals aged 20 to 24 years, whose rates remained stable. Mortality rates declined across most major causes of death from 1999 to 2002 and 2012 to 2015, with notable declines observed for sudden infant death syndrome, unintentional injury death, and homicides. Among infants, unintentional suffocation and strangulation in bed increased (difference between 2012-2015 and 1999-2002 range, 6.11-29.03 per 100 000). Further, suicide rates among Latino and white individuals aged 10 to 24 years (range, 0.21-2.63 per 100 000) and black individuals aged 10 to 19 years (range, 0.10-0.45 per 100 000) increased, as did unintentional injury deaths in white young adults (0.79 per 100 000). The rise in unintentional injury deaths is attributed to increases in drug poisonings and was also observed in black and Latino young adults. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Mortality rates in the United States have generally declined for infants and youths from 1999 to 2015 owing to reductions in sudden infant death syndrome, unintentional injury death, and homicides. However, US mortality rates remain higher than Canada and England/Wales, with particularly elevated rates among black and American Indian/Alaskan Native youth. Further, there is a concerning increase in suicide and drug poisoning death rates among US adolescents and young adults.