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Commitments to net-zero carbon dioxide (CO2) or greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions targets now cover 88% of countries’ emissions. Underlying the accounting behind net-zero frameworks is the assumption that emissions can be balanced with removals such that their net climate effect is zero. However, when considering the full climate impacts of CO2emissions and removals, there are reasons to expect that the two are not equivalent in terms of their climate outcomes. We identify potential contributors to non-equivalence, including impermanence, biogeophysical and non-CO2GHG effects, and argue that these non-equivalencies need to be accounted for to achieve climate goals. Given key uncertainties about the full climate impact of CO2removal, it is prudent to prioritize emission reductions over removals.

Agriculture provides people with food, but poses environmental challenges. Viacomprehensive observations on an agricultural land at Qvidja in Southern Finland, we were able to show that soil-emitted compounds (mainly ammonia and amines), together with available sulfuric acid, form new aerosol particles which then grow to climate-relevant sizes by the condensation of extremely low volatile organic compounds originating from a side production of photosynthesis (compounds emitted by ground and surrounding vegetation). We found that intensive local clustering events, with particle formation rates at 3 nm about 5–10 times higher than typical rates in boreal forest environments, occur on around 30% of all days. The requirements for these clustering events to occur were found to be clear sky, a low wind speed to accumulate the emissions from local agricultural land, particularly ammonia, the presence of low volatile organic compounds, and sufficient gaseous sulfuric acid. The local clustering will then contribute to regional new particle formation. Since the agricultural land is much more effective per surface area than the boreal forest in producing aerosol particles, these findings provide insight into the participation of agricultural lands in climatic cooling, counteracting the climatic warming effects of farming.

Peatlands have acted as net CO2sinks over millennia, exerting a global climate cooling effect. Rapid warming at northern latitudes, where peatlands are abundant, can disturb their CO2sink function. Here we show that sensitivity of peatland net CO2exchange to warming changes in sign and magnitude across seasons, resulting in complex net CO2sink responses. We use multiannual net CO2exchange observations from 20 northern peatlands to show that warmer early summers are linked to increased net CO2uptake, while warmer late summers lead to decreased net CO2uptake. Thus, net CO2sinks of peatlands in regions experiencing early summer warming, such as central Siberia, are more likely to persist under warmer climate conditions than are those in other regions. Our results will be useful to improve the design of future warming experiments and to better interpret large-scale trends in peatland net CO2uptake over the coming few decades.

The carbon balance of peatlands is predicted to shift from a sink to a source this century. However, peatland ecosystems are still omitted from the main Earth system models that are used for future climate change projections, and they are not considered in integrated assessment models that are used in impact and mitigation studies. By using evidence synthesized from the literature and an expert elicitation, we define and quantify the leading drivers of change that have impacted peatland carbon stocks during the Holocene and predict their effect during this century and in the far future. We also identify uncertainties and knowledge gaps in the scientific community and provide insight towards better integration of peatlands into modelling frameworks. Given the importance of the contribution by peatlands to the global carbon cycle, this study shows that peatland science is a critical research area and that we still have a long way to go to fully understand the peatland–carbon–climate nexus.

The response of evapotranspiration (ET) to warming is of critical importance to the water and carbon cycle of the boreal biome, a mosaic of land cover types dominated by forests and peatlands. The effect of warming-induced vapour pressure deficit (VPD) increases on boreal ET remains poorly understood because peatlands are not specifically represented as plant functional types in Earth system models. Here we show that peatland ET increases more than forest ET with increasing VPD using observations from 95 eddy covariance tower sites. At high VPD of more than 2 kPa, peatland ET exceeds forest ET by up to 30%. Future (2091–2100) mid-growing season peatland ET is estimated to exceed forest ET by over 20% in about one-third of the boreal biome for RCP4.5 and about two-thirds for RCP8.5. Peatland-specific ET responses to VPD should therefore be included in Earth system models to avoid biases in water and carbon cycle projections.

The water table depth (WTD) in peatlands determines the soil carbon decomposition rate and influences vegetation growth, hence the above‐ground carbon assimilation. Here, we used satellite‐observed Solar‐Induced chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF) as a proxy of Gross Primary Production (GPP) to investigate water‐related vegetation stress over northern peatlands. A linear model with interaction effects was used to relate short‐ and long‐term anomalies in SIF with WTD anomalies and the absolute WTD. Most locations showed the occurrence of drought and waterlogging stress though regions with exclusively waterlogging or drought stress were also detected. As a spatial median, minimal water‐related vegetation stress was found for a WTD of −0.22 m (short‐term) and −0.20 m (long‐term) (±0.01 m, 95% confidence interval of statistical uncertainty). The stress response observed with SIF is supported by an analysis of in situ GPP data. Our findings provide insight into how changes in WTD of northern peatlands could affect GPP under climate change. Water table depth is an important variable influencing the carbon cycle and vegetation growth in northern peatlands. In this paper, the impact of changing wetness conditions on vegetation growth over peatlands was studied through satellite measurements of solar‐induced fluorescence (SIF), which is a radiation signal emitted by vegetation during photosynthesis. Previous studies over ecosystems on mineral soil, that is, not over peatland, suggested a response of SIF to drought conditions. In our study, it was shown that peatland vegetation experiences moisture‐related growth stress under both very wet and very dry conditions, which might reduce the photosynthesis efficiency and the ability to capture and store CO2. Stress due to drought conditions was detected for peatlands in the south of the Western Siberian Lowlands and the Boreal Plains. Stress due to prolonged wet conditions occurred for example, in the north of the Western Siberian Lowlands and the north of the Hudson Bay Lowlands. Spaceborne Solar‐Induced Fluorescence (SIF) data was used to analyze soil moisture‐related vegetation stress regimes in northern peatlandsFor most locations, waterlogging as well as drought stress regimes occurred and alternated depending on peatland water level dynamicsThe SIF‐based stress response observations are supported by in situ data of Gross Primary Production Spaceborne Solar‐Induced Fluorescence (SIF) data was used to analyze soil moisture‐related vegetation stress regimes in northern peatlands For most locations, waterlogging as well as drought stress regimes occurred and alternated depending on peatland water level dynamics The SIF‐based stress response observations are supported by in situ data of Gross Primary Production

Biogeochemical cycling of elements largely occurs in dissolved state, but many elements may also be bound to natural nanoparticles (NNP, 1–100 nm) and fine colloids (100–450 nm). We examined the hypothesis that the size and composition of stream water NNP and colloids vary systematically across Europe. To test this hypothesis, 96 stream water samples were simultaneously collected in 26 forested headwater catchments along two transects across Europe. Three size fractions (~1–20 nm, >20–60 nm, and >60 nm) of NNP and fine colloids were identified with Field Flow Fractionation coupled to inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry and an organic carbon detector. The results showed that NNP and fine colloids constituted between 2 ± 5% (Si) and 53 ± 21% (Fe; mean ± SD) of total element concentrations, indicating a substantial contribution of particles to element transport in these European streams, especially for P and Fe. The particulate contents of Fe, Al, and organic C were correlated to their total element concentrations, but those of particulate Si, Mn, P, and Ca were not. The fine colloidal fractions >60 nm were dominated by clay minerals across all sites. The resulting element patterns of NNP <60 nm changed from North to South Europe from Fe‐ to Ca‐dominated particles, along with associated changes in acidity, forest type, and dominant lithology. Stream phosphorus is largely bound to natural nanoparticles and colloidsThe chemical composition of colloids varies systematically from Northern to Southern European streams

Data on past peatland growth patterns, vegetation development, and carbon (C) dynamics during the various Holocene climate phases may help us to understand possible future climate‐peatland feedback mechanisms. In this study, we analyzed and radiocarbon dated several peat cores from Kalevansuo, a drained bog in southern Finland. We investigated peatland succession and C dynamics throughout the Holocene. These data were used to reconstruct the long‐term atmospheric radiative forcing, i.e., climate impact of the peatland since initiation. Kalevansuo peat records revealed a general development from fen to bog, typical for the southern boreal zone, but the timing of ombrotrophication varied in different parts of the peatland. Peat accumulation patterns and lateral expansion through paludification were influenced by fires and climate conditions. Long‐term C accumulation rates were overall lower than the average values found from literature. We suggest the low accumulation rates are due to repeated burning of the peat surface. Drainage for forestry resulted in a nearly complete replacement of typical bog mosses by forest species within 40 years after drainage. The radiative forcing reconstruction suggested positive values (warming) for the first ~7000 years following initiation. The change from positive to negative forcing was triggered by an expansion of bog vegetation cover and later by drainage. The strong relationship between peatland area and peat type with radiative forcing suggests a possible feedback for future changing climate, as high‐latitude peatlands may experience prominent regime shifts, such as fen to bog transitions. Macrofossils, carbon accumulation, and age data from several cores were used to reconstruct three‐dimensional development of a Finnish bogThe site experienced a spatially asynchronous succession leading to heterogeneous carbon dynamicsLow carbon uptake and expansion of fen area caused 7000 year period of positive radiative forcing

Isotopic data provide powerful constraints on regional and global methane emissions and their source profiles. However, inverse modeling of spatially resolved methane flux is currently constrained by a lack of information on the variability of source isotopic signatures. In this study, isotopic signatures of emissions in the Fennoscandian Arctic have been determined in chambers over wetland, in the air 0.3 to 3 m above the wetland surface and by aircraft sampling from 100 m above wetlands up to the stratosphere. Overall, the methane flux to atmosphere has a coherent δ13C isotopic signature of −71 ± 1‰, measured in situ on the ground in wetlands. This is in close agreement with δ13C isotopic signatures of local and regional methane increments measured by aircraft campaigns flying through air masses containing elevated methane mole fractions. In contrast, results from wetlands in Canadian boreal forest farther south gave isotopic signatures of −67 ± 1‰. Wetland emissions dominate the local methane source measured over the European Arctic in summer. Chamber measurements demonstrate a highly variable methane flux and isotopic signature, but the results from air sampling within wetland areas show that emissions mix rapidly immediately above the wetland surface and methane emissions reaching the wider atmosphere do indeed have strongly coherent C isotope signatures. The study suggests that for boreal wetlands (>60°N) global and regional modeling can use an isotopic signature of −71‰ to apportion sources more accurately, but there is much need for further measurements over other wetlands regions to verify this. Methane δ13C isotopic signatures of northern European wetland emissions have been measured in air samples collected at different scalesWetland emissions dominate the methane source measured over northern Fennoscandia in summer aircraft campaignsThe δ13C isotopic signature of emissions from northern European wetland to atmosphere is well constrained

Snowmelt spring floods regulate carbon transport from land to streams. However, these coupled processes are rarely documented through high‐resolution measurements focused on water‐carbon interactions. We collated a state‐of‐the‐art high‐frequency data set throughout a snowmelt and early post snowmelt period, alongside regular samples of stream water, precipitation, and snowmelt isotopes (δ18O). Our study was conducted during the 2019 snowmelt and initial post snowmelt season in a subarctic, peatland influenced headwater catchment in Pallas, Northern Finland. We measured high‐frequency dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and in‐stream carbon dioxide (pCO2). We identified a change in hydrological processes as the snowmelt season progressed and the post snowmelt season began. We found (a) Overland flow dominated stream DOC dynamics in early snowmelt, while increased catchment connectivity opened new distal pathways in the later snowmelt period; (b) CO2processes were initially driven by rapid bursts of CO2from the meltwaters in snowmelt, followed by dilution and source limitation emerging post snowmelt as deep soil pathways replaced the snowpack as the main source of CO2; (c) stream carbon concentration shifted from being relatively balanced between CO2and DOC during the early snowmelt period to being increasingly DOC dominated as snowmelt progressed due to changes in DOC and CO2source supply. The study highlights the importance of using high‐frequency measurements combined with high‐frequency data analyses to identify changes in the processes driving water‐carbon interactions. The degree to which water‐carbon interactions respond to the continuation of Arctic water cycle amplification is central to delineating the evolving complexity of the future Arctic. Unique high‐frequency monitoring of stream dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and CO2reveals the evolution of water‐carbon interactions during snowmeltRapid surface pathways control DOC and CO2dynamics during early snowmelt, but distal sub‐surface pathways are dominant in late snowmeltChanges to snowmelt season characteristics will have substantial implications for the carbon cycle in headwater streams Unique high‐frequency monitoring of stream dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and CO2reveals the evolution of water‐carbon interactions during snowmelt Rapid surface pathways control DOC and CO2dynamics during early snowmelt, but distal sub‐surface pathways are dominant in late snowmelt Changes to snowmelt season characteristics will have substantial implications for the carbon cycle in headwater streams

Upland forest soils affect the atmospheric methane (CH4) balance, not only through the soil sink but also due to episodic high emissions in wet conditions. We measured methane fluxes and found that during a wet fall the forest soil turned from a CH4sink into a large source for several months, while the CH4emissions from a nearby wetland did not increase. When upscaled to the whole catchment area the contribution of forests amounted to 60% of the annual CH4emission from the wetlands, while in a normal year the forest soil consumes 10% of the wetland emission. The period of high upland soil emission was also captured by the nearby atmospheric concentration measurement station. Since the land cover within the catchment is representative of larger regions, our findings imply that upland forests in the boreal zone constitute an important part in the global CH4cycle not previously accounted for. In a wet fall, upland forest turns from a CH4sink to source, while wetland emissions do not changeThe monthly catchment‐scale emission from upland forest can be more than twice that from wetlandsUpland forests in the boreal zone may constitute an important part in the global CH4cycle

AbstractWeather-induced episodic mixing events in lake ecosystems are often unpredictable, and their impacts are therefore poorly known. The impacts can be short-lived, including changes in water temperature and stratification, but long-lasting effects on the lake’s biology may also occur. In this study we used automated water quality monitoring (AWQM) data from 8 boreal lakes to examine how the episodic weather-induced mixing events influenced thermal structure, hypolimnetic dissolved oxygen (DO), fluorometric chlorophyll estimates (Chl-a), and lake metabolism and how these events varied in frequency and magnitude in lakes with different characteristics. Rise in wind speed alone had an effect on the lakes with the weakest thermal stability, but a decrease in air temperature together with strong wind induced mixing events in all lakes. The return period of these mixing events varied widely (from 20 to 92 d) and was dependent on the magnitude of change in weather. In lakes with strong stability, thermal structure and hypolimnetic DO concentration were only slightly affected. Weather-induced mixing in the upper water column diluted the surface water Chl-a repeatedly, whereas seasonal maximum occurred in late summer on each lake. Although Finnish lakes have been characterized with stable stratification during summer, we observed many substantial mixing events of relatively short return periods relevant to both chemical and biological properties of the lakes.

Anthropogenic changes to land cover (LCC) remain common, but continuing land scarcity promotes the widespread intensification of land management changes (LMC) to better satisfy societal demand for food, fibre, fuel and shelter. The biophysical effects of LCC on surface climate are largely understood, particularly for the boreal and tropical zones, but fewer studies have investigated the biophysical consequences of LMC; that is, anthropogenic modification without a change in land cover type. Harmonized analysis of ground measurements and remote sensing observations of both LCC and LMC revealed that, in the temperate zone, potential surface cooling from increased albedo is typically offset by warming from decreased sensible heat fluxes, with the net effect being a warming of the surface. Temperature changes from LMC and LCC were of the same magnitude, and averaged 2 K at the vegetation surface and were estimated at 1.7 K in the planetary boundary layer. Given the spatial extent of land management (42–58% of the land surface) this calls for increasing the efforts to integrate land management in Earth System Science to better take into account the human impact on the climate.

Abstract:  Temporal and spatial variation in CH4 emissions was studied at hummock, Eriophorum lawn, flark and Carex lawn microsites in an oligotrophic pine fen over the growing season using a static chamber method, and CH4 production and oxidation potentials in peat profiles from hummock and flark were determined in laboratory incubation experiments. Emissions were lowest in the hummocks, and decreased with increasing hummock height, while in the lawns and flarks they increased with increasing sedge cover. Statistical response functions with water table and peat temperature as independent variables were calculated in order to reconstruct seasonal CH4 emissions by reference to the time series for peat temperature and water table specific to each microsite type. Mean CH4 emissions in the whole area in the snow-free period of 1993, weighted in terms of the proportions of the microsites, were 1.7 mol CH4 m–2. Potential CH4 production and oxidation rates were very low in the hummocks rising above the groundwater table, but were relatively similar when expressed per dry weight of peat both in the hummocks and flarks below the water table. The CH4 production potential increased in autumn at both microsites and CH4 oxidation potential seemed to decrease. The decrease in temperature in autumn certainly reduced in situ decomposition processes, possibly leaving unused substrates in the peat, which would explain the increase in CH4 production potential.

A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-00991-1.

Methane emissions from natural wetlands tend to increase with temperature and therefore may lead to a positive feedback under future climate change. However, their temperature response includes confounding factors and appears to differ on different time scales. Observed methane emissions depend strongly on temperature on a seasonal basis, but if the annual mean emissions are compared between sites, there is only a small temperature effect. We hypothesize that microbial dynamics are a major driver of the seasonal cycle and that they can explain this apparent discrepancy. We introduce a relatively simple model of methanogenic growth and dormancy into a wetland methane scheme that is used in an Earth system model. We show that this addition is sufficient to reproduce the observed seasonal dynamics of methane emissions in fully saturated wetland sites, at the same time as reproducing the annual mean emissions. We find that a more complex scheme used in recent Earth system models does not add predictive power. The sites used span a range of climatic conditions, with the majority in high latitudes. The difference in apparent temperature sensitivity seasonally versus spatially cannot be recreated by the non‐microbial schemes tested. We therefore conclude that microbial dynamics are a strong candidate to be driving the seasonal cycle of wetland methane emissions. We quantify longer‐term temperature sensitivity using this scheme and show that it gives approximately a 12% increase in emissions per degree of warming globally. This is in addition to any hydrological changes, which could also impact future methane emissions. Wet soils such as bogs, fens, and other wetlands emit methane gas. Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas that adds to climate warming. It is important to understand its net production and also how this might change as the Earth warms. Generally, scientists have found that warmer soils emit more methane. However, there is a discrepancy between comparing warm versus cold sites—where the effect of the temperature difference is relatively small—and comparing warmer and colder seasons of the year, where the effect of temperature is much stronger. Since methane emissions are caused by microbes, we investigated whether their behavior might provide an explanation for this discrepancy. We carefully constructed a computer model to simulate the microbes and found that the model could indeed explain the apparent discrepancy in the seasonal and location effects of temperature that was measured. We found that two global climate models did not recreate these seasonal and location effects of temperature until we included the behavior of the soil microbes. Using our new global microbial model, we estimate that there will be around 12% extra methane emission from global wetlands for each degree of global warming, assuming other factors do not change. Current Earth system models generally reproduce the observed spatial pattern of wetland methane emissions but not the seasonal dynamicsModeling microbes reproduces observed methane emissions and resolves the discrepancy between the seasonal versus spatial temperature responseThe modeled long‐term wetland methane emissions increase by 12% per degree of global warming