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Anthropogenic and natural CO2fluxes on land constitute substantial CO2emissions and removals but are usually not well distinguished in national greenhouse gas reporting. Instead, countries frequently combine natural and indirect human-induced CO2fluxes on managed land in their reports, which diminishes their usefulness for designing policies consistent with climate mitigation targets. Here, we separate natural and land-use-related CO2fluxes from national reports in eight countries using global models to improve the assessment of attribution of terrestrial CO2fluxes to direct anthropogenic activities. In most investigated countries, the gap between model-based and report-based CO2flux estimates is reduced if natural and indirect human-induced CO2fluxes on managed land are considered. Further examinations show that remaining differences are linked to country-specific discrepancies between model-based and report-based estimates. Separating natural and land-use-related CO2fluxes at national scales supports a fair burden sharing of climate mitigation across countries and facilitates the assessment of land-based mitigation ambitions.

Global carbon emissions have increased by 0.8% in 2024, reaching a record high of 37.4 billion tonnes of CO2 emitted from fossil fuels. While renewable energy and electric vehicles are helping reduce emissions in some countries, the overall global growth in fossil fuels is not being compensated for. The need to reach a peak and decline in global emissions is urgent, as natural systems may struggle to capture and store as much CO2 in the future. Despite some positive signs, such as the adoption of renewable energy and electric cars, global decarbonization requires greater ambition and action to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. [Extracted from the article]

In the framework of the RECCAP2 initiative, we present the greenhouse gas (GHG) and carbon (C) budget of Europe. For the decade of the 2010s, we present a bottom‐up (BU) estimate of GHG net‐emissions of 3.9 Pg CO2‐eq. yr−1(using a global warming potential on a 100 years horizon), which are largely dominated by fossil fuel emissions. In this decade, terrestrial ecosystems acted as a net GHG sink of 0.9 Pg CO2‐eq. yr−1, dominated by a CO2sink that was partially counterbalanced by net emissions of CH4and N2O. For CH4and N2O, we find good agreement between BU and top‐down (TD) estimates from atmospheric inversions. However, our BU land CO2sink is significantly higher than the TD estimates. We further show that decadal averages of GHG net‐emissions have declined by 1.2 Pg CO2‐eq. yr−1since the 1990s, mainly due to a reduction in fossil fuel emissions. In addition, based on both data driven BU and TD estimates, we also find that the land CO2sink has weakened over the past two decades. A large part of the European CO2and C sinks is located in Northern Europe. At the same time, we find a decreasing trend in sink strength in Scandinavia, which can be attributed to an increase in forest management intensity. These are partly offset by increasing CO2sinks in parts of Eastern Europe and Northern Spain, attributed in part to land use change. Extensive regions of high CH4and N2O emissions are mainly attributed to agricultural activities and are found in Belgium, the Netherlands and the southern UK. We further analyzed interannual variability in the GHG budgets. The drought year of 2003 shows the highest net‐emissions of CO2and of all GHGs combined. We have synthesized the European budgets of carbon and the greenhouse gases (GHG) carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. This synthesis includes estimates of direct emissions from fossil fuel burning, industrial production, waste management and agriculture, as well as of sources and sinks in the terrestrial biosphere. Summing up the sources and sinks of the three GHGs, we estimate for the decade of the 2010s an average annual net‐emission of 3.9 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalents. These net‐emissions are dominated by carbon dioxide from fossil fuel emissions (4.1 billion tons of carbon dioxide). In contrast, the terrestrial biosphere acts as a net sink of carbon dioxide, the effect of which is only partly counterbalanced by net emissions of methane and nitrous oxide. The net‐effect of the terrestrial biosphere's GHG budget is a sink of 0.9 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalents per year. Over the last three decades, European GHG emissions have declined by 1.2 billion tons carbon dioxide equivalents per year, mainly due to reductions in fossil fuel emissions. However, the sink capacity of the terrestrial biosphere has diminished since the 2000s. We provide a bottom‐up estimate of CO2, CH4, N2O emissions of 3.9 Pg CO2‐eq. yr−1over Europe, 2010–2019Terrestrial ecosystems acted as a greenhouse gas net sink of 0.9 Pg CO2‐eq. yr−1, dominated by CO2sinkNet‐greenhouse gas emissions decreased by ∼1/4 since the 1990s, but land carbon sink is weakening since the 2000s We provide a bottom‐up estimate of CO2, CH4, N2O emissions of 3.9 Pg CO2‐eq. yr−1over Europe, 2010–2019 Terrestrial ecosystems acted as a greenhouse gas net sink of 0.9 Pg CO2‐eq. yr−1, dominated by CO2sink Net‐greenhouse gas emissions decreased by ∼1/4 since the 1990s, but land carbon sink is weakening since the 2000s

The terrestrial biosphere plays a major role in the global carbon cycle, and there is a recognized need for regularly updated estimates of land‐atmosphere exchange at regional and global scales. An international ensemble of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), known as the “Trends and drivers of the regional scale terrestrial sources and sinks of carbon dioxide” (TRENDY) project, quantifies land biophysical exchange processes and biogeochemistry cycles in support of the annual Global Carbon Budget assessments and the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes, phase 2 project. DGVMs use a common protocol and set of driving data sets. A set of factorial simulations allows attribution of spatio‐temporal changes in land surface processes to three primary global change drivers: changes in atmospheric CO2, climate change and variability, and Land Use and Land Cover Changes (LULCC). Here, we describe the TRENDY project, benchmark DGVM performance using remote‐sensing and other observational data, and present results for the contemporary period. Simulation results show a large global carbon sink in natural vegetation over 2012–2021, attributed to the CO2fertilization effect (3.8 ± 0.8 PgC/yr) and climate (−0.58 ± 0.54 PgC/yr). Forests and semi‐arid ecosystems contribute approximately equally to the mean and trend in the natural land sink, and semi‐arid ecosystems continue to dominate interannual variability. The natural sink is offset by net emissions from LULCC (−1.6 ± 0.5 PgC/yr), with a net land sink of 1.7 ± 0.6 PgC/yr. Despite the largest gross fluxes being in the tropics, the largest net land‐atmosphere exchange is simulated in the extratropical regions. Around one third of human‐induced CO2emissions are absorbed by land ecosystems and thus act to mitigate climate change. It is essential to understand the processes, ecosystems and regions responsible for this natural carbon sink, to inform on the efficiency of the sinks into the future. These sinks are susceptible to year‐to‐year variation in response to climate variations and extremes. At the same time deforestation and other forms of land management are changing the land surface, which overall adds significantly to the human‐induced CO2emissions. There is a need to regularly update our estimate of land carbon dynamics to aid global stock takes for the Paris agreement to avoid dangerous climate change. Here we present an international initiative that on an annual basis assesses “Trends and drivers of the regional scale terrestrial sources and sinks of carbon dioxide” (TRENDY) using computer models of the land carbon cycle. We quantify the land sink during the contemporary period (2012–2021), and attribute to processes, mainly the large opposing effects of CO2fertilization enhancing plant productivity and land‐use change. Forests and semi‐arid ecosystems are largely responsible for the mean and trend in the land sink, with the latter most important for its year‐to‐year variation. We quantify and attribute land carbon dynamics to underlying processes at regional scales, contributing bottom‐up estimates to RECCAP‐2Models simulate a contemporary net land sink of 1.7 ± 0.6 PgC/yr, with large opposing effects of CO2fertilization and land‐use changeDespite the largest gross fluxes being in the tropics, the largest net land‐atmosphere exchange is simulated in the extratropical regions We quantify and attribute land carbon dynamics to underlying processes at regional scales, contributing bottom‐up estimates to RECCAP‐2 Models simulate a contemporary net land sink of 1.7 ± 0.6 PgC/yr, with large opposing effects of CO2fertilization and land‐use change Despite the largest gross fluxes being in the tropics, the largest net land‐atmosphere exchange is simulated in the extratropical regions

Historically, human uses of land have transformed and fragmented ecosystems1,2, degraded biodiversity3,4, disrupted carbon and nitrogen cycles5,6and added prodigious quantities of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to the atmosphere7,8. However, in contrast to fossil-fuel carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, trends and drivers of GHG emissions from land management and land-use change (together referred to as ‘land-use emissions’) have not been as comprehensively and systematically assessed. Here we present country-, process-, GHG- and product-specific inventories of global land-use emissions from 1961 to 2017, we decompose key demographic, economic and technical drivers of emissions and we assess the uncertainties and the sensitivity of results to different accounting assumptions. Despite steady increases in population (+144 per cent) and agricultural production per capita (+58 per cent), as well as smaller increases in emissions per land area used (+8 per cent), decreases in land required per unit of agricultural production (–70 per cent) kept global annual land-use emissions relatively constant at about 11 gigatonnes CO2-equivalent until 2001. After 2001, driven by rising emissions per land area, emissions increased by 2.4 gigatonnes CO2-equivalent per decade to 14.6 gigatonnes CO2-equivalent in 2017 (about 25 per cent of total anthropogenic GHG emissions). Although emissions intensity decreased in all regions, large differences across regions persist over time. The three highest-emitting regions (Latin America, Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa) dominate global emissions growth from 1961 to 2017, driven by rapid and extensive growth of agricultural production and related land-use change. In addition, disproportionate emissions are related to certain products: beef and a few other red meats supply only 1 per cent of calories worldwide, but account for 25 per cent of all land-use emissions. Even where land-use change emissions are negligible or negative, total per capita CO2-equivalent land-use emissions remain near 0.5 tonnes per capita, suggesting the current frontier of mitigation efforts. Our results are consistent with existing knowledge—for example, on the role of population and economic growth and dietary choice—but provide additional insight into regional and sectoral trends.

Changes in vegetation structure are expected to influence the redistribution of heat and moisture; however, how variations in the leaf area index (LAI) affect this global energy partitioning is not yet quantified. Here, we estimate that a unit change in LAI leads to 3.66 ± 0.45 and −3.26 ± 0.41 W m−2in latent (LE) and sensible (H) fluxes, respectively, over the 1982–2016 period. Analysis of an ensemble of data-driven products shows that these sensitivities increase by about 20% over the observational period, prominently in regions with a limited water supply, probably because of an increased transpiration/evaporation ratio. Global greening has caused a decrease in the Bowen ratio (B= H/LE) of −0.010 ± 0.002 per decade, which is attributable to the increased evaporative surface. Such a direct LAI effect on energy fluxes is largely modulated by plant functional types (PFTs) and background climate conditions. Land surface models (LSMs) misrepresent this vegetation control, possibly due to underestimation of the biophysical responses to changes in the water availability and poor representation of LAI dynamics.

Deforestation influences surface temperature locally (“local effects”), but also at neighboring or remote regions (“nonlocal effects”). Observations indicate that local effects induce a warming in most locations, while many climate models show a global mean cooling when simulating global deforestation. We show that a nonlocal cooling in models, which is excluded from observations, may strongly contribute to these conflicting results. For the MPI‐ESM, the globally averaged nonlocal cooling exceeds the globally averaged local warming by a factor of three, for global deforestation but also for realistic areal extents and spatial distributions of deforestation. Furthermore, the globally averaged nonlocal effects dominate the local effects in realistic scenarios across a range of climate models. We conclude that observations alone are not sufficient to capture the full biogeophysical effects, and climate models are needed to better understand and quantify the full effects of deforestation before they are considered in strategies for climate mitigation. Deforestation influences surface temperature at the location of deforestation (local effects) and elsewhere (nonlocal effects). Only the local effects are included in observation‐based data sets, but in reality surface temperature may in addition be substantially influenced by the nonlocal effects. Using simulations in a climate model, we show that deforestation‐induced changes in the brightness of the surface influence surface temperature mainly nonlocally and thus may be largely overlooked in observation‐based data sets. The simulations show that the nonlocal effects have a larger impact on global average surface temperature than the local effects, independent of how much area is deforested and at which latitude the deforestation takes place. A better understanding of the nonlocal effects is essential before the full climate effects of deforestation can be included into international climate policies that aim at mitigating global climate warming. Deforestation influences surface temperature also in locations that are not deforestedGlobally averaged, this temperature change may be stronger than the temperature change at deforested locationsThe surface cooling from changing surface albedo may mainly be nonlocal and thus underestimated in observation‐based estimates

The terrestrial carbon sink accelerated during 1998–2012, concurrently with the slow warming period, but the mechanisms behind this acceleration are unclear. Here we analyse recent changes in the net land carbon sink (NLS) and its driving factors, using atmospheric inversions and terrestrial carbon models. We show that the linear trend of NLS during 1998–2012 is about 0.17 ± 0.05 Pg C yr−2, which is three times larger than during 1980–1998 (0.05 ± 0.05 Pg C yr−2). According to terrestrial carbon model simulations, the intensification of the NLS cannot be explained by CO2fertilization or climate change alone. We therefore use a bookkeeping model to explore the contribution of changes in land-use emissions and find that decreasing land-use emissions are the dominant cause of the intensification of the NLS during the slow warming period. This reduction of land-use emissions is due to both decreased tropical forest area loss and increased afforestation in northern temperate regions. The estimate based on atmospheric inversions shows consistently reduced land-use emissions, whereas another bookkeeping model did not reproduce such changes, probably owing to missing the signal of reduced tropical deforestation. These results highlight the importance of better constraining emissions from land-use change to understand recent trends in land carbon sinks.

Forestation is a major component of future long‐term emissions reduction and CO2removal strategies, but the viability of carbon stored in vegetation under future climates is highly uncertain. We analyze the results from seven CMIP6 models for a combined scenario with high fossil fuel emissions (from SSP5‐8.5) and forest expansion (from SSP1‐2.6) which has ∼4.8% increase in global total forest cover relative to 2015. This scenario aims to demonstrate the ability of forestation strategies to mitigate climate change under continued increasing CO2emissions and includes the potential impacts of increased CO2concentration and a warming climate on vegetation growth. The model intercomparison shows that forestation as a CO2removal strategy has limited impact on global climate under a high global warming scenario, despite generating a substantial cumulative carbon sink of 10–60 Pg C over the period 2015–2100. Using a single model ensemble, we show that there are local increases in warm extremes in response to forestation associated with decreases in the number of cool days. Furthermore, we find evidence of a shift in the global carbon balance, whereby increased carbon storage on land of ∼25 Pg C by 2100 associated with forestation has a concomitant decrease in the carbon uptake by the ocean due to reduced atmospheric CO2concentrations. We use seven model projections to estimate future climates in which forestation occurs under a high fossil fuel emission scenario. While the forestation in this scenario is not enough to substantially mitigate global warming, the new forest cover makes up a stable carbon sink over the next century. Forestation under a high emissions scenario is projected to generate a limited but stable carbon sinkThis sink on its own is not enough to significantly mitigate global warmingForestation has substantial impacts on the global carbon balance and regional impacts on temperature extremes Forestation under a high emissions scenario is projected to generate a limited but stable carbon sink This sink on its own is not enough to significantly mitigate global warming Forestation has substantial impacts on the global carbon balance and regional impacts on temperature extremes

Global emissions of fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) are projected to increase by 1.1% in 2023, reaching a record high of 36.8 billion tonnes. These emissions come from the combustion of fossil fuels and cement production. When combined with CO2 emissions from land-use change, human activities are expected to emit 40.9 billion tonnes of CO2 in 2023. The world's vegetation and oceans absorb about half of these emissions, but the rest accumulates in the atmosphere, leading to increasing global warming. Emissions from all fossil sources, including coal, oil, natural gas, and cement, have increased this year. While global emissions have risen, individual countries have shown diverse performances, with some progress towards decarbonization. China's emissions increased by 4%, driven by growth in all fossil fuel sources, particularly oil. The United States' emissions decreased by 3% due to the retirement of coal-fired power plants. India's emissions increased by 8.2%, with coal being the highest contributor. The European Union's emissions decreased by 7.4% due to renewable energy penetration and the impacts of the war in Ukraine on energy supply. Over the past decade, 26 countries, including Brazil, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Portugal, Romania, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and the United States, have seen declining fossil CO2 emission trends while their economies continued to grow. Net emissions from land-use change, such as def [Extracted from the article]

Carbon stocks in vegetation have a key role in the climate system. However, the magnitude, patterns and uncertainties of carbon stocks and the effect of land use on the stocks remain poorly quantified. Here we show, using state-of-the-art datasets, that vegetation currently stores around 450 petagrams of carbon. In the hypothetical absence of land use, potential vegetation would store around 916 petagrams of carbon, under current climate conditions. This difference highlights the massive effect of land use on biomass stocks. Deforestation and other land-cover changes are responsible for 53–58% of the difference between current and potential biomass stocks. Land management effects (the biomass stock changes induced by land use within the same land cover) contribute 42–47%, but have been underestimated in the literature. Therefore, avoiding deforestation is necessary but not sufficient for mitigation of climate change. Our results imply that trade-offs exist between conserving carbon stocks on managed land and raising the contribution of biomass to raw material and energy supply for the mitigation of climate change. Efforts to raise biomass stocks are currently verifiable only in temperate forests, where their potential is limited. By contrast, large uncertainties hinder verification in the tropical forest, where the largest potential is located, pointing to challenges for the upcoming stocktaking exercises under the Paris agreement.

Following a land cover and land management change (LCMC), local surface temperature responds to both a change in available energy and a change in the way energy is redistributed by various non-radiative mechanisms. However, the extent to which non-radiative mechanisms contribute to the local direct temperature response for different types of LCMC across the world remains uncertain. Here, we combine extensive records of remote sensing and in situ observation to show that non-radiative mechanisms dominate the local response in most regions for eight of nine common LCMC perturbations. We find that forest cover gains lead to an annual cooling in all regions south of the upper conterminous United States, northern Europe, and Siberia—reinforcing the attractiveness of re-/afforestation as a local mitigation and adaptation measure in these regions. Our results affirm the importance of accounting for non-radiative mechanisms when evaluating local land-based mitigation or adaptation policies.

We assess the potential and possible consequences for the global climate of a strong reforestation scenario for this century. We perform model experiments using the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI‐ESM), forced by fossil‐fuel CO2emissions according to the high‐emission scenario Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, but using land use transitions according to RCP4.5, which assumes strong reforestation. Thereby, we isolate the land use change effects of the RCPs from those of other anthropogenic forcings. We find that by 2100 atmospheric CO2is reduced by 85 ppm in the reforestation model experiment compared to the reference RCP8.5 model experiment. This reduction is higher than previous estimates and is due to increased forest cover in combination with climate and CO2feedbacks. We find that reforestation leads to global annual mean temperatures being lower by 0.27 K in 2100. We find large annual mean warming reductions in sparsely populated areas, whereas reductions in temperature extremes are also large in densely populated areas. We isolate effects of land use changes and fossil‐fuel emissions in RCPsClimate and CO2feedbacks strongly affect mitigation potential of reforestationAdaptation to mean temperature changes is still needed, but extremes might be reduced

Approximately one-quarter of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere each year is absorbed by the global oceans, causing measurable declines in surface ocean pH, carbonate ion concentration ([CO32−]), and saturation state of carbonate minerals (Ω). This process, referred to as ocean acidification, represents a major threat to marine ecosystems, in particular marine calcifiers such as oysters, crabs, and corals. Laboratory and field studies have shown that calcification rates of many organisms decrease with declining pH, [CO32−], and Ω. Coral reefs are widely regarded as one of the most vulnerable marine ecosystems to ocean acidification, in part because the very architecture of the ecosystem is reliant on carbonate-secreting organisms. Acidification-induced reductions in calcification are projected to shift coral reefs from a state of net accretion to one of net dissolution this century. While retrospective studies show large-scale declines in coral, and community, calcification over recent decades, determining the contribution of ocean acidification to these changes is difficult, if not impossible, owing to the confounding effects of other environmental factors such as temperature. Here we quantify the net calcification response of a coral reef flat to alkalinity enrichment, and show that, when ocean chemistry is restored closer to pre-industrial conditions, net community calcification increases. In providing results from the first seawater chemistry manipulation experiment of a natural coral reef community, we provide evidence that net community calcification is depressed compared with values expected for pre-industrial conditions, indicating that ocean acidification may already be impairing coral reef growth.

Global Carbon Project 2022 Coal and oil emissions up, gas down, deforestation slowingBased on preliminary data, we project that CO[sub 2] emissions fromcoal, natural gas, oil, and cement use (fossil emissions) willincrease by 1% in 2022 from 2021 levels, reaching 36.6 billiontonnes. Carbon budgets to 1.5°C, 1.7°C and 2°C global meantemperature, with emissions remaining of 380 billion tonnesCO[sub 2], 730 billion tonnes CO[sub 2], and 1,230 billion tonnes CO[sub 2],respectively. We project 3.9 billion tonnes of CO[sub 2] will bereleased overall this year (though we should note that datauncertainties are higher for land-use change emissions than forfossil CO[sub 2] emissions). [Extracted from the article]

Anthropogenic changes to land cover (LCC) remain common, but continuing land scarcity promotes the widespread intensification of land management changes (LMC) to better satisfy societal demand for food, fibre, fuel and shelter. The biophysical effects of LCC on surface climate are largely understood, particularly for the boreal and tropical zones, but fewer studies have investigated the biophysical consequences of LMC; that is, anthropogenic modification without a change in land cover type. Harmonized analysis of ground measurements and remote sensing observations of both LCC and LMC revealed that, in the temperate zone, potential surface cooling from increased albedo is typically offset by warming from decreased sensible heat fluxes, with the net effect being a warming of the surface. Temperature changes from LMC and LCC were of the same magnitude, and averaged 2 K at the vegetation surface and were estimated at 1.7 K in the planetary boundary layer. Given the spatial extent of land management (42–58% of the land surface) this calls for increasing the efforts to integrate land management in Earth System Science to better take into account the human impact on the climate.

Rainfall‐intense summer monsoon seasons on the Indian subcontinent that are exceeding long‐term averages cause widespread floods and landslides. Here we show that the latest generation of coupled climate models robustly project an intensification of very rainfall‐intense seasons (June–September). Under the shared socioeconomic pathway SSP5‐8.5, very wet monsoon seasons as observed in only 5 years in the period 1965–2015 are projected to occur 8 times more often in 2050–2100 in the multi‐model average. Under SSP2‐4.5, these seasons become only a factor of 6 times more frequent, showing that even modest efforts to mitigate climate change can have a strong impact on the frequency of very strong rainfall seasons. Besides, we find that the increasing risk of extreme seasonal rainfall is accompanied by a shift from days with light rainfall to days with moderate or heavy rainfall. Additionally, the number of wet days is projected to increase. The South Asian monsoon affects the life of more than one billion people. In the past, summer monsoon seasons (June–September) with very intense rainfall have been associated with widespread floods and an increased number of landslides. Here, we set the focus on the question how the probability of these very wet monsoon seasons will change in the 21st century under climate change. For this purpose, we use the latest generation of climate models with improved performance regarding the Indian monsoon as well as reduced uncertainties compared to the previous model generation. Under the strongest emission scenario, very wet monsoon seasons that used to be observed in 5 out of 50 years in the period 1965–2015 are projected to occur 8 times more frequently in 2050–2100 on multi‐model average. With modest mitigation efforts, this is reduced to a factor of 6 in the future period. Besides, this increase in frequency and intensity of extreme monsoon seasons is accompanied by a shift from days with light rainfall to days with moderate or heavy rainfall. Additionally, the number of wet days is projected to increase. The particular character of the change depends on the determination of humankind to reduce carbon emissions and implement mitigation measures. The latest generation of coupled climate models project an increase in severity and frequency of very wet Indian summer monsoon seasonsVery wet monsoon seasons are projected to occur 8 times more often in 2050–2100 compared to 1965–2015 under unabated climate changeOn the subseasonal scale, there is a shift from days with light rainfall to days with moderate or heavy rainfall The latest generation of coupled climate models project an increase in severity and frequency of very wet Indian summer monsoon seasons Very wet monsoon seasons are projected to occur 8 times more often in 2050–2100 compared to 1965–2015 under unabated climate change On the subseasonal scale, there is a shift from days with light rainfall to days with moderate or heavy rainfall

The Amazon forests are one of the largest ecosystem carbon pools on Earth. Although more frequent and prolonged future droughts have been predicted, the impacts have remained largely uncertain, as most land surface models (LSMs) fail to capture the vegetation drought responses. In this study, the ability of the LSM JSBACH to simulate the drought responses of leaf area index (LAI) and leaf litter production in the Amazon forests is evaluated against artificial drought experiments. Based on the evaluation, improvements are implemented, including a dependency of leaf growth on leaf carbon allocation and a better representation of drought‐dependent leaf shedding. The modified JSBACH is shown to capture the drought responses at two sites and across different regions of the basin. It is then coupled with an atmospheric model to simulate the carbon and biogeophysical feedbacks of drought under future climate. We separate the drought impacts into (a) the direct effect, resulting from drier soil and stomatal closure, which does not involve a change in canopy structure, and (b) the LAI effect, resulting from leaf shedding and involving canopy response. We show that the latter accounts for 35% of reduced land carbon uptake (9 ± 10 vs. 26 ± 7 g/m2/yr; mean ± 1 sd) and 12% of surface warming (0.09 ± 0.03 vs. 0.7 ± 0.07 K) during the late 21st century. A north‐south dipole of precipitation change is found, which is largely attributable to the direct effect. The results highlight the importance of incorporating drought deciduousness of tropical rainforests in LSMs to better simulate land‐atmosphere interactions in the future. More frequent and prolonged droughts are expected in the Amazon region, but land surface models poorly simulate forest drought responses such as drought‐induced leaf shedding. We improve the land surface model JSBACH by comparing the results of numerical simulations with observations from artificial drought experiments. To understand how much impact leaf shedding will have on climate in the future, we run numerical simulations and separate the climate effects into (a) the direct effect, caused by drying soil and the leaves closing their stomata (pores on the leaves regulating gas exchange), and (b) the effect of leaf shedding. The effect of leaf shedding contributes to 35% of the reduced absorption of CO2by land, and to 12% of surface warming. Rainfall increases in the north and decreases in the south mostly because of the direct effect of drought. In conclusion, it is important to correctly simulate leaf shedding to have more accurate predictions of future climate. The drought‐induced leaf area index changes in the land surface model JSBACH are improved and the resultant climate feedbacks are assessedRelative to the total drought effects, leaf shedding contributes 35% to the reduction in land carbon uptake and 12% to surface warmingIt is important for land surface models to incorporate drought deciduousness in tropical rainforests to improve future climate projections The drought‐induced leaf area index changes in the land surface model JSBACH are improved and the resultant climate feedbacks are assessed Relative to the total drought effects, leaf shedding contributes 35% to the reduction in land carbon uptake and 12% to surface warming It is important for land surface models to incorporate drought deciduousness in tropical rainforests to improve future climate projections

Southeast Asia is a region known for active land‐use changes (LUC) over the past 60 years; yet, how trends in net CO2uptake and release resulting from LUC activities (net LUC flux) have changed through past decades remains uncertain. The level of uncertainty in net LUC flux from process‐based models is so high that it cannot be concluded that newer estimates are necessarily more reliable than older ones. Here, we examined net LUC flux estimates of Southeast Asia for the 1980s−2010s from older and newer sets of Dynamic Global Vegetation Model simulations (TRENDY v2 and v7, respectively), and forcing data used for running those simulations, along with two book‐keeping estimates (H&N and BLUE). These estimates yielded two contrasting historical LUC transitions, such that TRENDY v2 and H&N showed a transition from increased emissions from the 1980s to 1990s to declining emissions in the 2000s, while TRENDY v7 and BLUE showed the opposite transition. We found that these contrasting transitions originated in the update of LUC forcing data, which reduced the loss of forest area during the 1990s. Further evaluation of remote sensing studies, atmospheric inversions, and the history of forestry and environmental policies in Southeast Asia supported the occurrence of peak emissions in the 1990s and declining thereafter. However, whether LUC emissions continue to decline in Southeast Asia remains uncertain as key processes in recent years, such as conversion of peat forest to oil‐palm plantation, are yet to be represented in the forcing data, suggesting a need for further revision. Uncertainty remains in historical trends of CO2fluxes from land‐use changes (LUC) of Southeast AsiaExisting process‐based models and book‐keeping models yielded two contrasting historical LUC transitions of Southeast AsiaIndependent data evaluations are supportive of the occurrence of peak emissions in the 1990s and declining thereafter Uncertainty remains in historical trends of CO2fluxes from land‐use changes (LUC) of Southeast Asia Existing process‐based models and book‐keeping models yielded two contrasting historical LUC transitions of Southeast Asia Independent data evaluations are supportive of the occurrence of peak emissions in the 1990s and declining thereafter

Resolving regional carbon budgets is critical for informing land-based mitigation policy. For nine regions covering nearly the whole globe, we collected inventory estimates of carbon-stock changes complemented by satellite estimates of biomass changes where inventory data are missing. The net land–atmospheric carbon exchange (NEE) was calculated by taking the sum of the carbon-stock change and lateral carbon fluxes from crop and wood trade, and riverine-carbon export to the ocean. Summing up NEE from all regions, we obtained a global ‘bottom-up’ NEE for net land anthropogenic CO2uptake of –2.2 ± 0.6 PgC yr−1consistent with the independent top-down NEE from the global atmospheric carbon budget during 2000–2009. This estimate is so far the most comprehensive global bottom-up carbon budget accounting, which set up an important milestone for global carbon-cycle studies. By decomposing NEE into component fluxes, we found that global soil heterotrophic respiration amounts to a source of CO2of 39 PgC yr−1with an interquartile of 33–46 PgC yr−1—a much smaller portion of net primary productivity than previously reported.