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DNA profiles from multiple-contributor samples are interpreted by comparing the probabilities of the profiles under alternative propositions. The propositions may specify some known contributors to the sample and may also specify a number of unknown contributors. The probability of the alleles carried by the set of people, known or unknown, depends on the allelic frequencies and also upon any relationships among the people. Membership of the same subpopulation implies a relationship from a shared evolutionary history, and this effect has been incorporated into the probabilities. This acknowledgment of the effects of population structure requires account to be taken of all people in a subpopulation who are typed, whether or not they contributed to the sample.

Recent developments in the statistical analysis of DNA sequences are reviewed. The pace with which sequence data are being generated and analysed has increased with the growth of the human genome project. Two areas of activity are emphasized: attention to error rates in recorded sequences, and heterogeneity in structure of sequences. There is now empirical evidence suggesting error rates in the range 0.1% ∼ 1%, and such rates will affect evolutionary studies since these are about the rates at which DNA sequences from different individuals are expected to differ. Heterogeneity for such quantities as base composition, or lengths between successive subsequences of specified types, may be sufficient to account for observed long-range correlations between bases. The need for statistical models and analyses of DNA sequence data will continue, and will offer interesting challenges.

The interpretation of mixed DNA stains is explained in the context of likelihood ratios. The probabilities for the mixed-stain profile are evaluated under alternative explanations that specify the numbers of contributors and the profiles of any known contributors. Interpretations based simply on the frequencies with which random members of a population would not be excluded from a mixed-stain profile do not make use of all the information, and may overstate the strength of the evidence against included people. The effects of the numbers of contributors depends on whether all the alleles at a locus are present in the mixed stain. A general equation is given to allow likelihood ratios to be calculated, and includes the “2p” modification suggested by the 1996 NRC report. This modification is not always conservative. A computer program to perform calculations is available.