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Changes in sea ice significantly modulate climate change because of its high reflective and strong insulating nature. In contrast to Arctic sea ice, sea ice surrounding Antarctica has expanded, with record extent in 2010. This ice expansion has previously been attributed to dynamical atmospheric changes that induce atmospheric cooling. Here we show that accelerated basal melting of Antarctic ice shelves is likely to have contributed significantly to sea-ice expansion. Specifically, we present observations indicating that melt water from Antarctica’s ice shelves accumulates in a cool and fresh surface layer that shields the surface ocean from the warmer deeper waters that are melting the ice shelves. Simulating these processes in a coupled climate model we find that cool and fresh surface water from ice-shelf melt indeed leads to expanding sea ice in austral autumn and winter. This powerful negative feedback counteracts Southern Hemispheric atmospheric warming. Although changes in atmospheric dynamics most likely govern regional sea-ice trends, our analyses indicate that the overall sea-ice trend is dominated by increased ice-shelf melt. We suggest that cool sea surface temperatures around Antarctica could offset projected snowfall increases in Antarctica, with implications for estimates of future sea-level rise.

This study addresses three issues: spatial downscaling, calibration, and combination of seasonal predictions produced by different coupled ocean‐atmosphere climate models. It examines the feasibility of using a Bayesian procedure for producing combined, well‐calibrated downscaled seasonal rainfall forecasts for two regions in South America and river flow forecasts for the Paraná river in the south of Brazil and the Tocantins river in the north of Brazil. These forecasts are important for national electricity generation management and planning. A Bayesian procedure, referred to here as forecast assimilation, is used to combine and calibrate the rainfall predictions produced by three climate models. Forecast assimilation is able to improve the skill of 3‐month lead November‐December‐January multi‐model rainfall predictions over the two South American regions. Improvements are noted in forecast seasonal mean values and uncertainty estimates. River flow forecasts are less skilful than rainfall forecasts. This is partially because natural river flow is a derived quantity that is sensitive to hydrological as well as meteorological processes, and to human intervention in the form of reservoir management. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society.

This study addresses three issues: spatial downscaling, calibration, and combination of seasonal predictions produced by different coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. It examines the feasibility of using a Bayesian procedure for producing combined, well-calibrated downscaled seasonal rainfall forecasts for two regions in South America and river flow forecasts for the Paraná river in the south of Brazil and the Tocantins river in the north of Brazil. These forecasts are important for national electricity generation management and planning. A Bayesian procedure, referred to here as forecast assimilation, is used to combine and calibrate the rainfall predictions produced by three climate models. Forecast assimilation is able to improve the skill of 3-month lead November-December-January multi-model rainfall predictions over the two South American regions. Improvements are noted in forecast seasonal mean values and uncertainty estimates. River flow forecasts are less skilful than rainfall forecasts. This is partially because natural river flow is a derived quantity that is sensitive to hydrological as well as meteorological processes, and to human intervention in the form of reservoir management.

The QCD radiative corrections to charged current heavy quark production are given in the limit that the weak partner is massless, i.e. using a bottom structure function for top quark production. The results for charm production in neutrino nucleon scattering agree with those published before, but our method enables us to study all outgoing particles. The corrections to top production at the proposed LEP/LHC electroproton collider are discussed.

New algorithms are presented for evaluating the scalar one loop integrals for three- and four-point functions for arbitrary masses and external momenta. These formulations are useful both for analytic integration and for numerical evaluation in a computer program. The expressions are very compact and provide for an easy isolation of asymptotic behaviour and potential numerical problems. The tensor integrals have also been rewritten according to new algorithms, making it very easy to express amplitudes in terms of scalar loop integrals.

A calculation of the hard bremsstrahlung processe+e− →μ+μ−γγ is presented and compared with recent results from the L3 Collaboration.

Usind data from avp and p experiment with BEBC at CERN, the rates for inclusive production ofD*+,?c+ andD0 invp scattering and ofD*- in p scattering are measured. Some examples of the exclusive production ofD*+,?c+ and?c++ are given. The cross section for the reactionvp?µ-c++ is estimated.