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In this paper, looking at some new contributions to the Kalecki business cycle theory, we re-examine his 1935 model concerning the gestation period between orders and deliveries of capital goods. The model gives rise to a delay differential equation (DDE) with delay dependent coefficients depending on the time delay. The model has only one equilibrium point. Proved that a unique stability switch exists, we study the emergence of the Hopf bifurcation and the direction, stability and period of the bifurcating periodic solutions. We derive an explicit formula for determining the properties of the Hopf bifurcation by using the first Lyapunov coefficient. To confirm our analytic results, we consider two types of non-linear functions, all consistent with Kalecki's hypotheses: two S-shaped functions and one fractional function. Some comments dealing with the economic implications of our analysis are also included. • Kalecki's model of the investment cycle. • Model with time delays and delay dependent coefficients. • Existence of Hopf bifurcations analyzed by choosing time delays as bifurcation parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Including dividends, the broad market benchmark returned 13.3% through the first week of May-well above the 10.3% average annual return for large-company stocks, going back to 1926. Value's Resurgence THE TORTOISE PULLS AHEAD So far this year, large-company value stocks have returned 18.3%, including dividends - nearly 10 points more than large-company growth stocks, up 8.8%. Holdings include paper-goods firm Graphics Packaging and car- and truck-dealership company Penske Automotive. BofA Securities notes that companies beating expectations on both revenues and earnings have been met with a yawn from the market, with their stocks outperforming the S&P 500 by just 0.40% on the day following the report, compared with a typical jump of 1.5%. [Extracted from the article]

In the process of research and development (R&D) projects on new drugs, firms must face many challenges. The most serious challenges mainly come from economic fluctuations, technical risks, uncertainty of decision-maker's subjective judgment. Troubled by these uncertain factors, how we can accurately evaluate new drug R&D projects is a very urgent and necessary problem for the management of firms. In this paper, we present a new value model on a compound real option to evaluate the new drug R&D project under economic fluctuations, technical risks and subjective uncertainty. The randomness and fuzziness of economic fluctuations are modeled by a standard fractional Brownian motion and a trapezoidal fuzzy stochastic process, respectively. The technical risks are expressed by a Poisson-type jump process, which allows for the catastrophic impact of the technical risk and thus abandonment of the new drug R&D project. The uncertainty of decision-maker's subjective judgment is characterized by a mean value with the possibility–necessity weight, the pessimistic–optimistic index and the fuzzy risk aversion index. By using the real options approach, we achieve analytic solutions for the value models of new drugs R&D projects. A case study and analysis is also employed to emphasize the practical application of this innovative value model. We show that the uncertainties have a significant impact on the new drug R&D option value to some extent. Moreover, from the case of sensitivity analysis, some results are presented to illustrate that the value of new drug R&D project is increasing with respect to the right fuzzy factor and decreasing with respect to the left fuzzy factor, the technical risk of discovery phase, the technical risk of pre-clinical phase and the technical risk of clinical phase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To analyze the effect of animal spirits on economic dynamics, we construct a simple Keynesian business-cycle model with animal spirits incorporated into it. Similar to the well-known Kaldor model, we assume that each firm possesses the investment function depending on demand, in which the animal spirits are connected with the degree of the propensity to invest. However, we would like to emphasize that, unlike the Kaldor model, even if the level of demand for each firm is the same, the degree of propensity to invest (i.e., the strength of animal spirits) depends on the change in demand. Thus, we assume that animal spirits in demand-upswing phases are stronger than those in demand-downswing phases. In each phase, the degree of dependence on demand is firm specific. Therefore, we adopt a statistical approach to connect such heterogeneous micro-investment behaviors with a macro-investment function. Through this approach, some kind of nonlinearity is naturally introduced into the macro-investment function. We demonstrate that the nonlinear macro-investment function yields persistent business cycles. We also demonstrate the occurrence of a generalized Hopf bifurcation. • We change of the title of the paper, that is, entitled a new title according to reviewer's comment. • We have made the text as easy to understand as possible including corrections of not only theoretical points but also grammatical and stylistic ones. • We also tried to reduce the number of pages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the interconnections between real economy and the financial market in a discrete dynamical framework. We focus on the effect of the dividend policy decided by managers and the expectations of investors about future payments. We found that an excessively high dividend payout ratio erodes the economy, while in the opposite case instability and fluctuations arise. By means of analytical results and numerical simulations we show that the positive return of government bonds leads to instability, while investors' expectations modify the path of the asset price. • We investigate the co-evolution of physical capital and a financial asset. • An excessively high dividend payout ratio may erode the economy. • A low dividend payout might cause economic fluctuations. • Positive returns for government bonds lead to instability. • Unfulfilled expectations over dividends affect the path of the asset price. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Hicksian multiplier–accelerator model with a floor and/or a ceiling stands as one of the most successful representations of the economy capable of generating endogenous business cycles. In the present paper, we take some of the main insights of this literature as starting points to develop a continuous-time growth-cycle model for a small open economy. Our main innovation lies in assuming that capital accumulation is constrained only from above by the growth rate compatible with equilibrium in the balance-of-payments, i.e. the dynamic Harrod trade multiplier. It is shown that the obtained piecewise second order differential equation is a so-called two-stroke oscillator. Conditions under which the model produces periodic or aperiodic trajectories are studied analytically and through numerical simulations. An initial assessment of the statistical properties of the time-series indicates that they exhibit high kurtosis and negative skewness. • We develop an open economy growth cycle model based on the multiplier–accelerator. • Capital accumulation is constrained only from above by the dynamic trade-multiplier. • The resulting piecewise second order differential equation is a two-stroke oscillator. • Introducing a forcing term into autonomous demand leads to more complex dynamics. • Similar results follow from allowing exogenous cycles in international credit markets. • Time-series generated by the model exhibit high kurtosis and negative skewness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The conditions and the critical coefficients of bifurcations of a Kaldor model of business cycle with discrete-time are computed. • All codimension one and codimension two bifurcations of Kaldor model of business cycle with discrete- time are surveyed thoroughly. • The non-degeneracy conditions and predict the bifurcation scenarios are analyzed analytically. • The bifurcations of the higher iterations up to the sixteen iteration are revealed. • There is an excellent agreement between the analytical predictions and the numerical observations. This paper studies the dynamical behavior of a Kaldor model of business cycle with discrete-time analytically and numerically. The conditions and the critical coefficients for the flip (period-doubling), Neimark-Sacker, and strong resonances are computed analytically. By using the critical coefficients, the bifurcation scenarios are determined for each of the deleted bifurcation points. Bifurcation curves of fixed points and cycles with periods up to sixteen by changing one and two parameters along with all codim-1 and codim-2 bifurcations on the corresponding curves are computed using the numerical continuation method. Numerical analysis confirms our analytical results and reveals more complex dynamical behaviors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]