1. DEMON: DECISION MAPPING VIA OPTIMUM GO-NO NETWORKS--A MODEL FOR MARKETING NEW PRODUCTS.
- Author
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Charnes, A., Cooper, W. W., deVoe, J. K., and Learner, D. B.
- Subjects
DECISION support systems ,NEW product development ,MARKETING planning ,DECISION making ,PRODUCT management ,MARKETING strategy ,MATRICES (Mathematics) ,RESOURCE allocation ,PROFIT maximization ,CONSTRAINED optimization ,EXPERT systems - Abstract
In this paper a dynamic, adaptive model, called DEMON,[4] is interpreted in terms of a network. The latter is here employed to reduce the problem of selecting optimal decision procedures so that these can be interpreted in terms of a conditional sequential designation of links from such a network. More is involved, however, than is immediately apparent from the network possibilities only. Thus, in the DEMON applications to new product marketing -- as discussed in the present paper -- it is necessary to comprehend additional chance and deterministic constraints such as (1) payback, or breakeven, conditions that may be specified for fulfillment over a given time horizon, (2) minimum expected level of profits required and (3) study budget limits which should not be exceeded. By means of preemptions or over-rides, which also form a part of DEMON, however, it is possible to relate these additional constraints to the network as we also show by means of a development via ideas associated with the right inverse of an incidence matrix. It is important to note that the chance constraints in DEMON -- and hence the objective also -- are associated with probability distributions that are only partially determined by the selection of a sequence of link designations in the network of (statistical) study possibilities. Thus, a link selection yields only a random variable whose sample value in turn determines a conditional probability distribution in terms of which the chance constraints (and the objective) are expressed. Also involved is the further issue of optimal allocation between the elements of a marketing plan (e.g., resource allocations to advertising, promotion, etc.) which, in turn, alters the distribution through its mean demand. Thus, the task of DEMON is to choose a best distribution through two avenues: (a) a best path through the network of study possibilities and (b) a best deployment of funds in terms of a marketing plan. To conveniently summarize this double optimization we refer to the DEMON objective as MEMP (=Maximize Expected Maximum Profit.) But, of course, the selection of a best distribution in accordance with MEMP is confined only to those candidates admitted by the network of study possibilities and the chance (and other) constraints. Al [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 1966
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