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Abstract: Direct exploration of subglacial lakes buried deep under the Antarctic Ice Sheet has yet to be achieved. However, at retreating margins of the ice sheet, there are a number of locations where former subglacial lakes are emerging from under the ice but remain perennially ice covered. One of these lakes, Hodgson Lake (72°00.549′S, 068°27.708′W) has emerged from under more than 297–465m of glacial ice during the last few thousand years. This paper presents data from a multidisciplinary investigation of the palaeolimnology of this lake through a study of a 3.8m sediment core extracted at a depth of 93.4m below the ice surface. The core was dated using a combination of radiocarbon, optically stimulated luminescence, and relative palaeomagnetic intensity dating incorporated into a chronological model. Stratigraphic analyses included magnetic susceptibility, clast provenance, organic content, carbonate composition, siliceous microfossils, isotope and biogeochemical markers. Based on the chronological model we provisionally assign a well-defined magnetic polarity reversal event at ca 165cm in the lake sediments to the Mono Lake excursion (ca 30–34ka), whilst OSL measurements suggest that material incorporated into the basal sediments might date to 93±9ka. Four stratigraphic zones (A–D) were identified in the sedimentological data. The chronological model suggests that zones A–C were deposited between Marine Isotope Stages 5–2 and zone A during Stage 1, the Holocene. The palaeolimnological record tracks changes in the subglacial depositional environment linked principally to changing glacier dynamics and mass transport and indirectly to climate change. The sediment composition in zones A–C consists of fine-grained sediments together with sands, gravels and small clasts. There is no evidence of overriding glaciers being in contact with the bed reworking the stratigraphy or removing this sediment. This suggests that the lake existed in a subglacial cavity beneath overriding LGM ice. In zone D there is a transition to finer grained sediments characteristic of lower energy delivery coupled with a minor increase in the organic content attributed either to increases in allochthonous organic material being delivered from the deglaciating catchment, a minor increase in within-lake production or to an analytical artefact associated with an increase in the clay fraction. Evidence of biological activity is sparse. Total organic carbon varies from 0.2 to 0.6%, and cannot be unequivocally linked to in situ biological activity as comparisons of δ 13C and C/N values with local reference data suggest that much of it is derived from the incorporation of carbon in catchment soils and gravels and possibly old CO2 in meteoric ice. We use the data from this study to provide guidelines for the study of deep continental subglacial lakes including establishing sediment geochronologies, determining the extent to which subglacial sediments might provide a record of glaciological and environmental change and a brief review of methods to use in the search for life. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Climate models, derived from process understanding, are essential tools in the study of climate change and its wide-ranging impacts on the biosphere. Hindcast and future simulations provide comprehensive spatiotemporal estimates of climatology that are frequently employed within the environmental sciences community, although the output can be afflicted with bias that impedes direct interpretation. Bias correction approaches using observational data aim to address this challenge. However, approaches are typically criticised for not being physically justified and not considering uncertainty in the correction. These aspects are particularly important in cases where observations are sparse, such as for weather station data over Antarctica. This paper attempts to address both of these issues through the development of a novel Bayesian hierarchical model for bias prediction. The model propagates uncertainty robustly and uses latent Gaussian process distributions to capture underlying spatial covariance patterns, partially preserving the covariance structure from the climate model which is based on well-established physical laws. The Bayesian framework can handle complex modelling structures and provides an approach that is flexible and adaptable to specific areas of application, even increasing the scope of the work to data assimilation tasks more generally. Results in this paper are presented for one-dimensional simulated examples for clarity, although the method implementation has been developed to also work on multidimensional data as found in most real applications. Performance under different simulated scenarios is examined, with the method providing most value added over alternative approaches in the case of sparse observations and smooth underlying bias. A major benefit of the model is the robust propagation of uncertainty, which is of key importance to a range of stakeholders, from climate scientists engaged in impact studies, decision makers trying to understand the likelihood of particular scenarios and individuals involved in climate change adaption strategies where accurate risk assessment is required for optimal resource allocation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate changes induced by stratospheric ozone depletion over Antarctica have been recognized as an important consequence of the recently observed Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation. Here we present evidences that the Brazilian coast (Southwestern Atlantic) may have been impacted from both winds and sea surface temperature changes derived from this process. Skeleton analysis of massive coral species living in shallow waters off Brazil are very sensitive to air-sea interactions, and seem to record this impact. Growth rates of Brazilian corals show a trend reversal that fits the ozone depletion evolution, confirming that ozone impacts are far reaching and potentially affect coastal ecosystems in tropical environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drawing from an analysis of experiences in outer space law, this paper provides insights into challenges involved with managing the global common spaces of the polar regions. The literature concerning governance of the international commons regions focuses on justice and equity concerning natural resources, climate change, the speed, uncertainty and consequences stemming from key actor activity in the Polar Regions. This usually boils down to successes and failures of treaty noncompliance and enforcement mechanisms, or the lack thereof. This paper highlights a current political process aimed at dismantling agreed upon terms outer space international agreements. This offers a snapshot of a political process, likely to influence evolving polar legal norms for the rapidly melting Arctic and Antarctic regions. This is a conceptual paper borrowing theoretical and methodological approaches from political science and international relations such as a Gramscian analysis, constructivism theory and critical discourse analysis, to present several interesting ideas. The purpose is to enable people to understand and explain that future colonisation patterns are unfolding today. It calls attention to issues likely to challenge and define our world in the twenty-first century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dense water formation around Antarctica is recognized as one of the most important processes to climate modulation, since that is where the linkage between the upper and lower limbs of Global Thermohaline Circulation takes place. Assessing whether these processes may be affected by rapid climate changes and all the related feedbacks may be crucial to fully understand the ocean heat transport and to provide future projections. Applying the Coordinated Ocean-Ice Reference (CORE) normal year forcing we have run a 100-yr simulation using Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) with explicit sea-ice/ice-shelf thermodynamics. The normal year consists of single annual cycle of all the data that are representative of climatological conditions over decades and can be applied repeatedly for as many years of model integration as necessary. The experiment employed a circumpolar variable resolution (1/2° to 1/24°) grid reaching less than 5km over the inner continental shelf. With Optimum Parameter Analysis (OMP) the main Ross Sea (RS) water masses are identified: Antarctic surface water 15 (AASW), circumpolar deep water (CDW), shelf water (SW) and ice shelf water (ISW). Current configuration allows very realistic representation, where results compare extremely well to the observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antarctica is a crucial regulator of the world's climate, and as environmental security permeates global security, using Antarctic science to better understand climate is becoming increasingly pressing. Although the Australian Government has recognised that climate change poses 'a current and existential national security' threat and has acknowledged Antarctica's importance regarding the earth's global climate system, the focus of Australia's intelligence community pertaining to Antarctica currently remains restricted to upholding the military-security and diplomatic goals of the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS). This current focus aims to hedge against the possibility of conflict on, or over, the frozen continent via 'working the ATS', however, this paper argues that Antarctic climate science holds a greater capacity to deliver security outcomes for Australia. Antarctic climate science offers opportunities regarding intelligence for Antarctica, that is, securing Australia's Antarctic interests, as well as regarding intelligence from Antarctica; by enhancing natural disaster preparedness, bolstering broader strategic planning, as well as furthering diplomacy and the legitimisation of Australia's leadership on, and over, the frozen continent. It is recommended that the Commonwealth Government establish a climate intelligence working group to ensure the utility of climate science to security and intelligence is realised. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming has become one of the most prominent global issues, and Antarctic ice sheet is one of the indicator of global climate change. Satellite imagery has become an important means of monitoring the changes in Antarctic ice sheet. Due to the high overlap of satellite imaging swaths, the existing Antarctica images have the disadvantages of long period of imagery acquisition, large temporal difference among the mosaic images, and low utilization of satellite resource. This paper proposes a satellite imaging mission planning method for fast Antarctica coverage. First, the imaging time window is forecasted within the specified imaging time range to obtain all the visible time windows of the imaging satellite to Antarctica. Then, taking the selection of each time window and the satellite swing angle in each time window as decision variables, and the satellite attitude maneuver ability as constraint, an imaging mission model including two objective functions with minimum number of imaging time windows and the maximum coverage rate is established. To solving the proposed multi-objective optimization model, an improved real-binary hybrid LMOCSO (large-scale multi-objective optimization based on a competitive swarm optimizer) is proposed in this paper. Finally, a simulation experiment was performed using Gaofen-3 satellite to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores whether a central plank of the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS) – the science criterion – is threatened by anthropogenic climate change. It begins by situating the origins of the ATS within the context of the International Geophysical Year (IGY), and the privileged position that science obtained within first the IGY and later the ATS. This extends to science functioning as the dominant currency through which states may ascend to the level of consultative parties (CPs), the highest level of authority within the ATS. Within this model Antarctica functions as a laboratory, a metaphor with a long history in Antarctica, reinforced by the Madrid Protocol and its strong focus on maintaining environmental boundaries and by a perception that Antarctica otherwise plays a minimal role in global affairs. Much of the research in Antarctica focuses on climate change and indeed has been important in establishing its scope and magnitude. But climate change also threatens both Antarctica itself and – by extension – the many low‐lying areas of the world that would be affected by rising sea levels caused by melting Antarctic ice. Given Antarctica may no longer be so removed from the rest of the world, is this sufficient reason to revisit the centrality of science to legitimate participation in Antarctic governance? The paper considers alternatives to the current system, including assigning authority within the ATS to states affected by climate change. It concludes that while the science criterion remains viable, it rests on a moral as well as practical foundation that could be undermined if the right to authority over Antarctica remains disconnected from the actions that cause changes to the continent. Science is the privileged currency for participating in Antarctic governance. Anthropogenic climate change threatens this by reframing Antarctica as a conduit through which harms flow rather than an isolated laboratory. Consequently the moral bases for the place of science in Antarctic governance should be re‐examined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Regional climate models (RCMs) and reanalysis datasets provide valuable information for assessing the vulnerability of ice shelves to collapse over Antarctica, which is important for 2100 global sea level rise estimates. Within this context, this paper examines variability in snowfall, near-surface air temperature and melt across products from the MetUM, RACMO and MAR RCMs, as well as the ERA-Interim and ERA5 reanalysis datasets. Seasonal and trend decomposition using Loess (STL) is applied to split the monthly time series at each model grid-cell into trend, seasonal and residual components. Significant, systematic differences between outputs are shown for all variables in the mean and seasonal/monthly standard deviations, occurring at both large and fine spatial scales across Antarctica. It is suggested that differences in the atmospheric dynamics, parametrisation, tuning and surface schemes between models together contribute more significantly to large-scale variability than differences in the driving data, resolution, domain specification, ice sheet mask, digital elevation model and boundary conditions. Despite significant systematic differences, high temporal correlations are found for snowfall and near-surface air temperature across all products at fine spatial scales. For melt, only moderate correlation exists at fine spatial scales between different RCMs and low correlation between RCM and reanalysis outputs. Root mean square deviations (RMSDs) between all outputs in the monthly time series for each variable are shown to be significant at fine spatial scales relative to the magnitude of annual deviations. Correcting for systematic differences results in significant reductions of RMSDs, suggesting the importance of observations and further development of bias-correction techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Oceanographic changes adjacent to Antarctica have global climatic and ecological impacts. However, this is the most challenging place in the world to obtain marine data due to its remoteness and inhospitable nature, especially in winter. Here, we present more than 2000 Conductivity-Temperature-Depth (CTD) profiles and associated water sample data collected with (almost uniquely) full year-round coverage from the British Antarctic Survey Rothera Research Station at the west Antarctic Peninsula. Sampling is conducted from a small boat or a sled, depending on the sea ice conditions. When conditions allow, sampling is twice weekly in summer and weekly in winter, with profiling to nominally 500 m and with discrete water samples taken at 15 m water depth. Daily observations are made of the sea ice conditions in the area. This paper presents the first 20 years of data collection, 1997-2017. This time series represents a unique and valuable resource for investigations of the high-latitude ocean's role in climate change, ocean/ice interactions, and marine biogeochemistry and carbon drawdown. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the climate warms, the grounded ice sheet and floating ice shelves surrounding Antarctica are losing mass at an increasing rate and injecting the resulting meltwater into the Southern Ocean. This freshwater input could feed back onto climate change, particularly since the Southern Ocean is a key contributor to global heat and carbon uptake. Nonetheless, almost all existing coupled climate models have fixed ice sheets, and lack the physics required to represent the dominant sources of Antarctic melt. These missing ice dynamics represent a key uncertainty that is unaccounted for in current global climate change projections. Previous studies have inserted additional Antarctic meltwater into models, demonstrating that it can alter Southern Ocean stratification, circulation, and sea ice, as well as influence remote atmospheric circulation, tropical precipitation, and global temperature. However, these previous studies have used widely varying rates of freshwater forcing, been conducted using different climate models and configurations, and have reached differing conclusions on the magnitude of meltwater-climate feedbacks. The Southern Ocean Freshwater release model experiments InitiAtive (SOFIA) brings together a team of scientists to quantify the climate system response to Antarctic meltwater input. In this paper, we summarize the state of knowledge on meltwater discharge from the Antarctic ice sheet and ice shelves to the Southern Ocean and explain the scientific objectives of our initiative. We propose a series of coupled and ocean/sea-ice model experiments, including idealized meltwater experiments, historical experiments with observationally consistent meltwater input, and future scenarios driven by meltwater inputs derived from stand-alone ice sheet models. Through coordinating a multi-model ensemble of simulations, with data housed in a common archive, SOFIA will be able to produce a consistent estimate of the climate system response to Antarctic meltwater, as well as the uncertainty of this response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea ice is an important and complex component of the Earth system and is considered a sensitive indicator of climate change. The seasonal sea ice cycle regulates the exchange of heat and salinity, altering the energy balance between high and low latitudes as well as the ocean and atmospheric circulation. The accurate representation of Antarctic sea ice has been considered a hot topic in the climate modelling community and lacks conclusive answers. In this paper, we evaluated the ability of 11 climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and Phase 6 (CMIP6) to simulate the sea ice seasonal cycle in Antarctica in terms of area (SIA) and concentration (SIC), as well as the improvements in the most recent models' version, submitted to CMIP6. The results indicated that all models are able to accurately capture the seasonal cycle of the Antarctic SIA, with the minimum (maximum) occurring in February (September). In the Weddell Sea, Amundsen Sea, Bellingshausen Sea, and the Ross Sea, the simulated sea ice concentration revealed a large and systematic bias in February when compared to observations. In September, a large and systematic bias was found nearby the Southern Ocean's northern limit in the Polar Front. Several CMIP6 models exhibited slight improvements on the SIA and SIC estimate over the previous version (CMIP5). All models indicated a significant sea ice loss in the coming years as a response to CO2 forcing. Despite the advancements in the sea ice representation, our findings show that the models are still unable to accurately represent the regional sea ice changes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapidly increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide lead to a threat of global climate change. As one of the major sources of carbon emissions in the Antarctic region, shipborne tourism in the Antarctic is expanding rapidly. Consequently, the carbon emissions of shipborne tourism in Antarctica are rapidly increasing. However, there is not enough attention being paid to this issue. In this paper, a calculation model was established to calculate the carbon emissions of cruise ships from the 2003/04 season to the 2016/17 season. The evolution of the carbon emissions from Antarctic cruise ships was described. An aggregate energy efficiency index was developed to evaluate the energy efficiency performance of Antarctic vessels. The key drivers were analyzed to find the paths of carbon reduction. The results show that: (1) The emissions per passenger-trip did not show a downward trend. The total carbon emissions increased continuously with the increasing number of tourists. The total carbon emissions in the 2016/17 season was double that in the 2003/04 season. (2) The aggregate energy efficiency index of Antarctic tour vessels has not reached an advanced level yet. It is the main reason for the high value of emissions per passenger-trip. (3) Due to the oversupply of Antarctica tour ships, there is a low rate of occupancy, which accounts for the decline in aggregate energy efficiency from the 2014/15 season to the 2016/17 season. This study suggests that the administrators of Antarctica should strengthen supervision of the tourism market, control the rapid growth in the number of cruise ships, improve the aggregate energy efficiency of cruise ships and form an efficient and green Antarctic tourism management system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As Antarctica attracts increasing attention in global climate change studies, the demand for field expeditions has increased in recent decades. Aircraft has become the most efficient mode of transportation because of the advantages of short travel times over long distances, access to unreachable locations and capability to carry different types of sensors to obtain large areal coverages. However, few studies have been published regarding Antarctic airfield site selection for heavy-wheeled aircraft. In this paper, we present methods and results of blue-ice airfield preliminary selection near Zhongshan station, East Antarctica. The geographic information system (GIS)-based method is supported by multi-mission high-resolution images from the ZY-3, WorldView-2 and Landsat-8 satellites along with existing remote sensing products. Ground truth observations were integrated with satellite panchromatic and spectral information to identify runway candidate areas. The information inferred by remote sensing data, including firn type, ice movement, surface slope and ice fracture, is used for evaluation of the airfield selection rules. Finally, the rankings and recommendations of runway candidates were performed in a GIS analysis environment. The site selection approach developed in this paper can be applied in preconstruction studies of other similar cryosphere environments to provide appropriate candidates for a final stage field investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: As an emerging airborne remote sensing system, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) falls into multiple categories with various payloads, such as the multi ⁃ rotor and fixed ⁃ wing ones. Despite the harsh climatic condition, UAV is widely used in many Antarctic fields of basic and applied science, which still lacks a comprehensive and systematic literature review. Methods: We firstly discuss the special impact of Antarctic environmental conditions (meteorology, electromagnetic field, light, etc.) on the UAV operation. A comprehensive literature retrieval is subsequently presented on the current application of UAV in Antarctic research and expedition. We sort out 104 papers according to the time of publication, main journals, study areas, nations, and institutions. Representative literature is reviewed in seven application areas, including aeromechanics, atmosphere, sea ice and iceberg, glacier, geomorphology and geomagnetism, ecology-vegetation as well as ecology-animals. We retrospect the development and achievement of UAVs applications in the Chinese national Antarctic research and summarize the limitations of the research on the application of UAV in Antarctica. Results: A number of environmental factors need to be considered before the UAV missions, such as the meteorological conditions, electromagnetic field, solar radiations, and flight regulations. According to the review, half of the literature belongs to the journal paper, mostly in Polar Biology, Polar Science, and Remote Sensing. The earliest UAV research in Antarctica was published in 2004, followed by a productive period of International Polar Year in 2008. The first-tier countries including the USA, Australia, and Germany, led the progress in the research on UAVs in Antarctica. Meanwhile, the dominant role of top universities stood out via various collaborations. The UAV can also be classified into multiple categories according to the payload, such as the industrial⁃ or consumer-grade optical cameras, radiosonde, synthetic aperture radar, and light detecting and ranging （LiDAR), among which consumer-grade camera is widely used in Antarctic investigations. China􀆳s Antarctic expedition team initiated the Antarctic UAV program in 2007 and had carried out at least 18 flight missions by 2020. The flights covered Zhongshan Station, The Great Wall Station, Inexpression Island, and the inland ice sheet, from which the collected data were employed to support the glaciological, geomorphic, and biological studies. Conclusions: The UAV remote sensing, as the essential technology in the “Air ⁃Space ⁃Ground” polar observation system, has been increasingly upgraded in the recent decade. The flight experiments covered the primary research topics and research fields in Antarctic science. In general, the application and development of Antarctic UAV in China lie in the second tier, falling behind the USA and Australia. In the end, according to the current development of Antarctic UAV in China, this paper provides guidance for China's Antarctic expedition team in the future: (1) Develop new UAV models; (2) Make breakthroughs in the battery technology; (3) Couple multiple sensors; (4) Encourage trans ⁃disciplinary collaboration; (5) Pro-mote foreign communication and sharing; (6) Participate in the international management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Amundsen Sea in West Antarctica is one of the most affected regions by climate change, but it is one of the least studied realms due to difficulties in access. Korea Polar Research Institute (KOPRI) launched a research project in the Amundsen Sea in 2010 using the icebreaker research vessel (IBRV) Araon and has been conducting various research initiatives. In this paper, previous researches derived from the Amundsen Sea Embayment by Korean researchers are introduced. Through previous studies, researchers have been able to interpret the environmental and biogeochemical changes according to the inflow Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) and provide information for climate models. In particular, researches using radiocarbon isotopes (14C) were introduced to understand the physical and biogeochemical mechanisms of the carbon cycle in the Amundsen Sea. Opportunely, with the construction of a second icebreaker research vessel, the direction for systematic and long-term polar data acquisition can be presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The expansion of Antarctic sea ice since 1979 in the presence of increasing greenhouse gases remains one of the most puzzling features of current climate change. Some studies have proposed that the formation of the ozone hole, via the Southern Annular Mode, might explain that expansion, and a recent paper highlighted a robust causal link between summertime Southern Annular Mode (SAM) anomalies and sea ice anomalies in the subsequent autumn. Here we show that many models are able to capture this relationship between the SAM and sea ice, but also emphasize that the SAM only explains a small fraction of the year‐to‐year variability. Finally, examining multidecadal trends, in models and in observations, we confirm the findings of several previous studies and conclude that the SAM–and thus the ozone hole–are not the primary drivers of the sea ice expansion around Antarctica in recent decades. Plain Language Summary: Unlike its Arctic counterpart, sea ice around Antarctica has been growing since 1979, even as the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have increased. Given that the ozone hole formed over the South Pole around the same time, one is led to ask whether the ozone hole may be responsible for the growth of Antarctic sea ice (recall that there is no ozone hole over the North Pole). In this study, looking at both models and observations, we show that the ozone hole is capable of affecting the surface winds and these, in turn, can make sea ice expand. However, the magnitude of this effect is small. Also since the ozone hole started healing after the year 2000, while Antarctic sea ice kept expanding, we conclude that ozone depletion is not the main reason for the expansion of Antarctic sea ice in recent decades. Key Points: Many CMIP5 models are able to capture the observed seasonal correlation between summertime Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and Antarctic sea ice extentThe SAM, however, only explains 15 of the year‐to‐year sea ice extent variability in the fall, in both models and observationsSAM trends, and ozone depletion, are not the primary drivers of the observed Antarctic sea ice expansion in the last four decades [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents the first results of Hg determination in the hair of prehistorical animals (woolly mammoth, steppe bison, and woolly rhino). Hair of prehistorical mammals can be used as an archive that preserves changes of environmental pollution at the paleoscale. The aim of our study was to assess the levels of Hg exposure of ancient animals and to understand whether Hg concentration in hair could be used as a proxy indicating changes of mercury levels in the environment following global climate changes. We assessed changes of Hg exposure recorded in hairs of seven specimens of mammoth fauna mammals that inhabited the Yakutia region in the period from 45 to 10 ka yr BP. Hg concentrations in hair varied from 0.017 to 0.177 µg/g; the lowest Hg concentration were determined in older specimens (45–33 kyr yr BP). The two highest concentrations belonged sample from the Last Glacial Maximum and the Karginian interstadial (57–24 kyr BP) periods. Our hypothesis is the increase of Hg concentrations in hair reflecting environmental Hg level might be forced by high dust load in cold periods and thawing permafrost in warm climatic periods. Long-term variations of Hg level recovered from Ice Age animals' hair correlate with Hg profiles of concentration and deposition reconstructed from the Antarctica ice core. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Polar regions are attracting more public, political, economic and scientific attention than ever before, with the role of tourism becoming increasingly recognised. Tourism activities are still relatively new in polar settings with the role of tourism primarily seen as highly beneficial with a capacity to contribute to socio-economic development, especially in the Arctic. However, the growth in tourism is also regarded by some commentators as potentially damaging to the polar environments, especially when combined with the effects of climate change. Yet in order to understand future change it is important that past and present tourism numbers can be benchmarked. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the definitions and dimensions of tourism in polar regions and how the term polar tourism can be understood. The paper aims to define polar tourism in a manner that is consistent with that of international tourism statistics in order to identify gaps in our knowledge base. Based on the existing statistics and overview of current levels of tourism in polar regions it is indicated that the number of visitors to high latitudes is already substantial, especially in the Arctic, and is continuing to grow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines a paradoxical issue in tourism's adaptation to climate change and emissions reduction demands. Operators increasingly take tourists to destinations threatened by climate change, with Antarctica and other polar regions as favourites and cruise ship and aircraft as main transport modes. The selling point is to see a destination before it disappears, a form of last chance tourism. This has been claimed to increase the environmental awareness of tourists and make them “ambassadors” for conservation and the visited destination. Antarctic cruise ship passengers tripled from 2000 to 2007. The paper finds that high levels of greenhouse gas emissions are created by cruise ship tourists in general, and especially high levels for those visiting the Antarctic, up to approximately eight times higher per capita and per day than average international tourism trips. A survey found no evidence for the hypothesis that the trips develop greater environmental awareness, change attitudes or encourage more sustainable future travel choices. Of the Antarctic cruise passengers surveyed, 59% felt that their travel did not impact on climate change; fewer than 7% had or might offset their emissions. Alternative opportunities for visitation to glacial/polar destinations that comply with the desire to reduce future emissions are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over 40 years ago, the glaciologist John Mercer warned that parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet were at risk of collapse due to the CO2 greenhouse effect. Mercer recognised the unique vulnerability of ice sheets resting on beds far below sea level (marine-based ice sheets), where an initial warming signal can initiate irreversible retreat. In this paper, we review recent work on evidence for ice sheet collapse in warmer periods of the recent geological past, the current behaviour of the ice sheet, and computer models used to predict future ice-sheet response to global warming. Much of this work points in the same direction: warming climates can indeed trigger collapse of marine-based portions of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and retreat in response to recent warming has brought parts of the ice sheet to the threshold of instability. Further retreat appears to be inevitable, but the rate of collapse depends critically on future emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, an analysis of seasonal dependences of the brightness temperature of different regions of Antarctica according to radiometer data from MIRAS (SMOS satellite) and SSMIS (DMSP series satellites) is presented. Queen Maud Land (Norwegian: Dronning Maud Land) was chosen as the region of study, which includes the main zones of Antarctica: the dome, the zone of runoff winds, and the coastal zone. The interrelation of time dynamics of brightness temperature as a function of the change in climatic characteristics of regions is considered. The main factors influencing the change in brightness temperature in different regions of the Antarctic glacier sheet are revealed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ocean's Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) brings carbon- and nutrient-rich deep waters to the surface around Antarctica. Limited by light and dissolved iron, photosynthetic microbes incompletely consume these nutrients, the extent of which governs the escape of inorganic carbon into the atmosphere. Changes in MOC upwelling may have regulated Southern Ocean outgassing, resulting in glacial-interglacial atmospheric CO2 oscillations. However, numerical models that explore this positive relationship do not typically include a feedback between biological activity and abundance of organic chelating ligands that control dissolved iron availability. Here, I show that incorporating a dynamic ligand parameterization inverts the modelled MOC-atmospheric CO2 relationship: reduced MOC nutrient upwelling decreases biological activity, resulting in scant ligand production, enhanced iron limitation, incomplete nutrient usage, and ocean carbon outgassing, and vice versa. This first-order response suggests iron cycle feedbacks may be a critical driver of the ocean's response to climate changes, independent of external iron supply. Dynamic ocean feedbacks between biological activity, chelating ligand levels, and dissolved iron availability may reverse carbon uptake or outgassing in response to changes in meridional overturning circulation, fundamentally impacting climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research explored the origin and paleoenvironmental significance of sediments from the Cosmonaut Sea, Antarctica, focusing on the period since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 26,000 cal a BP). Sediment samples from core ANT37-C5/6-07 were subjected to AMS14C dating, clay-mineral assemblage analysis, grain size evaluation, and geochemical testing. Results indicated illite as the dominant clay mineral (average 46%), followed by kaolinite (22%) and smectite (21%), with chlorite (11%) being the least abundant. Comparison with previous studies suggested that these sediments are largely derived from weathered material from Prydz Bay and Enderby Land coastal regions. The study of mineral ratios, geochemical elements, and sediment grain size, alongside δ18O values from the East Antarctica EDML ice core, revealed that the ice sheet in the study area retreated around 18600 cal a BP, melted more markedly during 16800-15000 cal a BP, tended to expand during 14800-13500 cal a BP, and then the ice sheet remained in a state of retreat until it expanded again around 5000 cal a BP. It is largely synchronous with the phased changes in the Antarctic climate since the LGM (26ka) of the Cosmonaut Sea. Notably, the sediment record aligns with major paleoclimatic events, including Heinrich Stadial 1 and the Younger Dryas in the northern hemisphere and the Antarctic cold reversal, reflecting a climatic ‘seesaw’ effect. These findings suggest that the sedimentary record in the Cosmonaut Sea is a sensitive indicator of climatic conditions, highlighting a history of glacial movements and revealing East Antarctica’s climatic fluctuations. Additionally, the research indicates that the regional ice sheet is more sensitive to climatic changes than previously believed, underscoring its instability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Eocene–Oligocene transition (EOT, ca. 40–33 Ma) marks a transformation from a largely ice-free to an icehouse climate mode that is well recorded by oxygen-stable isotopes and sea surface temperature proxies. Opening of the Southern Ocean gateways and decline in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have been considered as factors in this global environmental transformation and the growth of ice sheets in Antarctica during the Cenozoic. A more comprehensive understanding is still needed of the interplay between forcing versus response, the correlation among environmental changes, and the involved feedback mechanisms. In this study, we investigate the spatio-temporal variation in export productivity using biogenic Ba (bio- Ba) from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) sites in the Southern Ocean, focusing on possible mechanisms that controlled them as well as the correlation of export productivity changes to changes in the global carbon cycle. We document two high export productivity events in the Southern Ocean during the late Eocene (ca. 37 and 33.5 Ma) that correlate to proposed gateway-driven changes in regional circulation and to changes in global atmospheric pCO2 levels. Our findings suggest that paleoceanographic changes following Southern Ocean gateway openings, along with more variable increases in circulation driven by episodic Antarctic ice sheet expansion, enhanced export production in the Southern Ocean from the late Eocene through early Oligocene. These factors may have played a role in episodic atmospheric carbon dioxide reduction, contributing to Antarctic glaciation during the Eocene–Oligocene transition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the remarkable ecological value of the Ross Sea, the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) adopted a large-scale Ross Sea region marine protected area (RSRMPA) in 2016. Since then, many CCAMLR Members have conducted research and monitoring in the region. In 2021, the U.S. Ross Sea science community convened a workshop to collate, synthesize, and coordinate U.S. research and monitoring in the RSRMPA. Here we present workshop results, including an extensive synthesis of the peer-reviewed literature related to the region during the period 2010–early 2021. From the synthesis, several things stand out. First, the quantity and breadth of U.S. Ross Sea research compares to a National Science Foundation Long Term Ecological Research project, especially involving McMurdo Sound. These studies are foundational in assessing effectiveness of the RSRMPA. Second, climate change and fishing remain the two factors most critical to changing ecosystem structure and function in the region. Third, studies that integrate ecological processes with physical oceanographic change continue to be needed, especially in a directed and coordinated research program, in order to effectively separate climate from fishing to explain trends among designated indicator species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2023, Antarctic sea‐ice extent (SIE) reached record lows, with winter SIE falling to 2.5Mkm2 below the satellite era average. With this multi‐model study, we investigate the occurrence of anomalies of this magnitude in latest‐generation global climate models. When these anomalies occur, SIE takes decades to recover: this indicates that SIE may transition to a new, lower, state over the next few decades. Under internal variability alone, models are extremely unlikely to simulate these anomalies, with return period >1000 years for most models. The only models with return period <1000 years for these anomalies have likely unrealistically large interannual variability. Based on extreme value theory, the return period is reduced from 2650 years under internal variability to 580 years under a strong climate change forcing scenario. Plain Language Summary: In 2023, the area of winter Antarctic sea ice fell to the lowest measured since satellite records began in late 1978. It is still under debate how far this low can be explained by natural variations, and how much can be explained by climate change. Global climate models are tools used to study past and predict future global change. We show that, without climate change, the latest generation of these models are extremely unlikely to simulate a sea‐ice reduction from the mean as large as observed in winter 2023. Including strong climate change quadruples the chance of such a reduction, but the chance is still very low. When these rare reductions are simulated, sea ice takes around 10 years to recover to a new, lower, area: this indicates that Antarctic sea ice may transition to a new, lower, state over the next few decades. Key Points: The latest generation of global climate models rarely simulate an Antarctic sea‐ice extent anomaly as negative as observed in winter 2023The return period for such an anomaly is 2650 years under internal variability, decreasing to 580 years under strong climate change forcingAfter the anomaly occurs, sea‐ice extent recovers within a decade to a new, lower state [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Polar stratospheric clouds play a significant role in the seasonal thinning of the ozone layer by facilitating the activation of stable chlorine and bromine reservoirs into reactive radicals, as well as prolonging the ozone depletion by removing HNO 3 and H 2 O from the stratosphere by sedimentation. In a context of climate change, the cooling of the lower polar stratosphere could enhance polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation and by consequence cause more ozone depletion. There is thus a need to document the evolution of the PSC cover to better understand its impact on the ozone layer. In this article we present a statistical model based on the analysis of the CALIPSO (Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) PSC product from 2006 to 2020. The model predicts the daily regionally averaged PSC density by pressure level derived from stratospheric temperatures. Applied to stratospheric temperatures from the CALIPSO PSC product, our model reproduces observed and interannual variations in PSC density well between 10 and 150 hPa over the 2006–2020 period. The model reproduces the PSC seasonal progression well, even during disruptive events like stratospheric sudden warmings, except for years characterized by volcanic eruptions. We also apply our model to gridded temperatures from Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Application (MERRA-2) reanalyses over the complete South Pole region to evaluate changes in PSC season duration over the 1980–2021 period. We find that over the 1980–2000 period, the PSC season gets significantly longer between 30 and 150 hPa. Lengthening of the PSC season from 22 d (30–50 hPa) to 32 d (100–150 hPa) is possibly related to volcanic eruptions occurring over this period. Over 1980–2021, we find that the PSC season gets significantly longer between 30 and 100 hPa, but due to biases in MERRA-2 temperatures, the reliability of these trends is hard to evaluate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent observations suggest that El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts basal melting of West Antarctic ice shelves, yet sparse ocean observations limit our understanding of the associated processes. Here we investigate how ENSO events modulate subsurface West Antarctic shelf temperatures using high‐resolution global ocean‐sea ice model simulations. During El Niño, the subsurface shelf warming between 150 m and the shelf bottom can be up to 0.5°C in front of ice shelves. This warming arises from a weaker Amundsen Sea Low (ASL) and weaker coastal easterlies that reduce on‐shelf Ekman transport of cold surface waters, enabling enhanced transport of warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) onto the shelf. A largely opposite response occurs during La Niña, with a stronger ASL and stronger Ekman transport that results in less cross‐shelf CDW transport and cooling in the subsurface. These findings have implications for interpreting basal melting on interannual to decadal time‐scales in West Antarctica. Plain Language Summary: El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the Earth's dominant year‐to‐year climate variation. The impacts of its two phases, El Niño and La Niña, extend from the tropics to Antarctica through atmospheric waves. Past studies have suggested that West Antarctic ice shelves melt more during El Niño because of warmer ocean waters at the ice shelf bases. However, oceanic changes during El Niño lead to warming on the shelf near the ice which is difficult to isolate. That is because ENSO is only one of many drivers that impact shelf water temperatures. In this work, we simulate isolated ENSO events using an ocean circulation model. We show that during El Niño, the on‐shelf flow of cold surface waters in West Antarctica, driven by coastal easterly winds, is reduced because the winds weaken. To balance out this mass deficit at the surface, more warm CDW flows onto the continental shelf below. During La Niña, we see a largely opposite response. Stronger coastal easterlies increase the on‐shelf flow of cold surface waters and less CDW is flowing onto the shelf. Our results show the link between ENSO and mass loss of the West Antarctic ice shelves and ice sheet. Key Points: Ocean‐sea ice model simulations of El Niño and La Niña events illustrate how they modulate West Antarctic shelf temperaturesEl Niño weakens coastal easterlies, reduces on‐shelf Ekman flow of cold waters, increasing cross‐shelf flow of warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW)The La Niña shelf circulation response is largely opposite and reduces cross‐shelf transport of warm CDW [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One invasive species that decreases citrus fruit yield is the Asian citrus psyllid, Diaphorina citri Kuwayama. The psyllids are the carriers of Candidatus Liberibacter species, the pathogen that causes citrus greening disease (commonly called huanglongbing, or HLB), which is the most devastating citrus disease in the world. Originally from Southeast Asia, the Asian citrus psyllid, a highly invasive species, is spreading rapidly throughout the world. Regarding geographical distribution and population growth, climate change will aggravate its impacts on many citrus agroecosystems. However, limited information on the mechanisms underpinning the pest's invasion impedes the formulation of biosecurity risk measures. We highlight the potential suitable areas for D. citri, combining their climatic requirements, temperature and humidity, in the CLIMEX model. The model's performance was high, and it can be utilized for biosecurity risk assessment, as only 2.82% of the 496 known occurrence spots were located in areas deemed unsuitable by the model's fit. The potential habitat suitability for D. citri covered all continents except Antarctica, and the suitability ranges from unsuitable (EI < 0) to highly suitable areas (EI ≥ 30). Our model predicted suitable areas outside its known native and invaded regions, especially in Africa, South America, and Oceania. Most of these regions will remain suitable for D. citri in the future. This underscores the importance of our findings as a significant guide for future early detection and the development of climate-smart management strategies against D. citri. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A main source of regional climate change uncertainty is the large disparity across models in simulating the atmospheric circulation response to global warming. Using the latest suite of global climate models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), a storyline approach is adopted to derive physically plausible scenarios of Antarctic climate change for 2070–99, according to Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP5-8.5. These storylines correspond to differences in the simulated amount of seasonal sea ice loss and either (i) the delay in the summertime stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) breakdown or (ii) wintertime SPV strengthening, which together constitute robust drivers of the response pattern to future climate change. Such changes combined are known to exert a strong control over the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude jet stream, which we quantify as collectively explaining up to 70% of the variance in jet response in summer and 35% in winter. For summer, the expected strengthening and displacement of the tropospheric jet stream varies between a ∼1 and 2 m s−1 increase and ∼2°–4° poleward shift, respectively, across storylines. In both seasons, a larger strengthening of the jet is correlated with less Antarctic warming. By contrast, the response in precipitation is more consistent but still strongly attenuated by large-scale dynamics. We find that an increase in high-latitude precipitation around Antarctica is more pronounced for storylines characterized by a greater poleward jet shift, particularly in summer. Our results highlight the usefulness of the storyline approach in illustrating model uncertainty and understanding the processes that determine the spread in projected Antarctic regional climate response. Significance Statement: Uncertainty in future climate predictions for the Antarctic is dominated by the unknown response of the large-scale (global) atmospheric circulation. In characterizing such uncertainty, plausible outcomes of climate response (storylines) are generated from the organization of model projections according to the amount of simulated seasonal sea ice loss and the delay in summertime breakdown/winter strengthening of the stratospheric westerly circulation (polar vortex). The intensity and location of the tropospheric jet stream is strongly dependent on both factors, which strongly influences the near-surface climate response over Antarctica. We find that the simulated amount that Antarctic air temperatures increase by in the future (to the end of the century) is intrinsically related to the projected intensification of the Southern Hemisphere tropospheric jet, varying by a factor of 2 or more across storylines for summer. Storylines with greater jet strengthening are associated with less Antarctic warming (reduced poleward advection of air masses from lower latitudes). Similar differences are found for changes in jet position, which we note has a much stronger control on mid- to high-latitude precipitation response. This includes both an enhanced wetting response around Antarctica and drying response farther equatorward, for storylines characterized by a greater poleward jet shift. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on automating the task of estimating Polar ice thickness from airborne radar data acquired over Greenland and Antarctica. This process involves the identification and accurate selection of the ice sheet's surface location and interface between the ice sheet and the underlying bedrock for each measurement. Identifying the surface and bedrock locations in the radar imagery enables the computation of ice sheet thickness, which is important for the study of ice sheets, their volume, and how they may contribute to global climate change. The time-consuming manual approach requires sparse hand-selection of surface and bedrock interfaces by several human experts, and interpolating between the selections to save time. Two primary methods have been studied in this paper, namely, edge-based and active contour. Results are evaluated and presented using the metrics of time requirements and accuracy. Automated ice thickness estimation results from 2006 and 2007 Greenland field campaigns illustrate that the edge-based approach offers faster processing (seconds compared to minutes), but suffers from a lack of continuity and smoothness aspects that active contours provide. The active contour approach is more accurate when compared to ground truth selections provided by human experts, and has proven to be more robust to image artifacts. It is shown that both techniques offer advantages which could be integrated to yield a more effective system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antarctica offers a unique natural laboratory for undertaking fundamental research on the relationship between climate, evolutionary processes and molecular adaptation. The fragmentation of Gondwana and the development of wide-scale glaciation have resulted in major episodes of extinction and vicariance, as well as driving adaptation to an extreme environment. On shorter time-scales, glacial cycles have resulted in shifts in distribution, range fragmentation and allopatric speciation, and the Antarctic Peninsula is currently experiencing among the most rapid climatic warming on the planet. The recent revolution in molecular techniques has provided a suite of innovative and powerful tools to explore the consequences of these changes, and these are now providing novel insights into evolutionary and ecological processes in Antarctica. In addition, the increasing use of remotely sensed data is providing a large-scale view of the system that allows these processes to be set in a wider spatial context. In these two volumes, we collect a wide range of papers exploring these themes, concentrating on recent advances and emphasizing the importance of spatial and temporal scale in understanding ecological and evolutionary processes in Antarctica. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The natural variability of directly observed soil thermal conductivity was low. • Soil moisture can explain at least 50 % of soil thermal conductivity variability. • The effect of soil thermal conductivity on active layer thickness was insignificant. • Active layer thickness negatively correlates with soil moisture. The knowledge of soil thermal properties is important for determining how a soil will behave under changing climate conditions, especially in the sensitive environment of permafrost affected soils. This paper represents the first complex study of the interplay between the different parameters affecting soil thermal conductivity of soils in Antarctica. Antarctic Peninsula is currently the most rapidly warming region of the whole Antarctica, with predictions of this warming to continue in the upcoming decades. This study focuses on James Ross Island, where the Abernethy Flats automatic weather station is located in a lowland area with semi-arid climate. Air and ground temperature, soil heat flux and soil moisture during the thawing season were monitored on this site from 2015 to 2023. Moreover, two approaches to determining soil thermal conductivity were compared – laboratory measurements and calculation from field data. During this period, mean annual temperatures have increased dramatically for both air (from −6.9 °C in 2015/2016 to −3.8 °C in 2022/2023) and ground (from −6.5 °C to −3.2 °C), same as active layer thickness (from 68 cm to 95 cm). Average soil thermal conductivity for the thawing period reached values between 0.49 and 0.74 W/m.K−1 based on field data. Statistically significant relationships were found between the seasonal means of volumetric water content and several other parameters – soil thermal conductivity (r = 0.91), thawing degree days (r = −0.87) and active layer thickness (r = −0.88). Although wetter soils generally have a higher conductivity, the increase in temperature exhibits a much stronger control over the active layer thickening, also contributing to the overall drying of the upper part of the soil profile. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Role of periglacial regions in mercury (Hg) cycling in the Antarctic coastal zone. • Spatial variability of Hg and MeHg concentrations in soil of ice-free areas. • Study confirms link between weathering of rocks and the Hg concentration in soil. • Presence of animals, e.g. penguins and seals, impacts the concentration of Hg in soil. • OM is a key factor affecting Hg distribution across Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems. The Antarctic plays a critical role in global mercury cycling as both a sink of Hg and, in response to rapid global warming, an emerging source of Hg through its release from thawing permafrost and recessing glaciers. At the present time, Antarctica and surrounding areas have little mercury contamination in comparison to other regions of the world. Understanding the sources and transformations of Hg in the Antarctic will be particularly important in predicting the role of a changing environment in the mercury cycle as emissions and global climate change. Study samples were collected at 12 stations, categorized into three groups based on the human or animal presence and flora. Sampling took place in December 2018 and January 2019, and soil and parent rock samples were collected and analyzed for total mercury concentration and its fractions using atomic absorption spectroscopy. Bedrock samples collected on the coast of Admiralty Bay were found to have low organic matter content, while soil samples from the west shore of the bay had a high variability of organic matter content, ranging from 3 % to 41 %. The concentration of total mercury in bedrock ranged from 2.1 ng/g to 15.0 ng/g, and in soil samples, the total mercury concentration ranged from 4.7 ng/g to 143.1 ng/g. This paper reviews current knowledge of Hg cycling in the Antarctic, including its sources, fate, and effects on the ecosystem. The implications of climate change for Hg cycling in the region are also discussed, highlighting the need for continued research to better understand the potential impacts of Hg contamination in the Antarctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change is a phenomenon that seriously affects the balance of a wide variety of ecosystems and is the intense focus of climate scientists and environmental researchers. In this context, periodic monitoring of glacier areas in terms of a better understanding of atmosphere-ocean interactions; thus, predicting the effects of climate change and planning against future threats by evaluating environmental impacts is an important research area. Especially the polar regions, where the melting of glaciers and the rise of sea levels are visibly observed, are important for climate scientists in providing crucial observations to understand and predict global climate change. In this study, within the scope of the international bilateral cooperation project carried out in cooperation with Istanbul Technical University (ITU) and the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (BAS) (Project No: 121N033), the spatial changes in snow/glacier areas obtained from UAV Photogrammetry products generated during the 6th and 7th Antarctic National Science Expeditions. Snow/glacier areas were segmented with the K-Net deep learning approach which has been previously tested for accuracy and provides glacier mapping with accuracy metrics over 99%, on the high spatial resolution orthophotos produced during the two periods. The snow/glacier areas difference between the two periods were calculated and compared and water bodies which are critical areas, were specifically examined. The result of this comparison shows that the glacier area decreased by approximately 11% in just 1 year. However, to better understand these changes in snow/glacier areas, the region needs to be observed closely for longer time periods. It is thought that future studies will contribute to efforts to manage global environmental impacts and cope with climate change by focusing on monitoring and better understanding changes in these critical regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the extreme greenhouse of the Eocene (56–34 Ma) is key to anticipating potential future conditions. While providing an end member towards a distant high-emission scenario, the Eocene climate also challenges the different tools at hand to reconstruct such conditions. Besides remaining uncertainty regarding the conditions under which the large-scale glaciation of Antarctica took place, there is poor understanding of how most of the continent remained ice free throughout the Eocene across a wide range of global temperatures. Seemingly contradictory indications of ice and thriving vegetation complicate efforts to explain the Antarctic Eocene climate. We use global climate model simulations to show that extreme seasonality mostly limited ice growth, mainly through high summer temperatures. Without ice sheets, much of the Antarctic continent had monsoonal conditions. Perennially mild and wet conditions along Antarctic coastlines are consistent with vegetation reconstructions, while extreme seasonality over the continental interior promoted intense weathering shown in proxy records. The results can thus explain the coexistence of warm and wet conditions in some regions, with small ice caps forming near the coast. The resilience of the climate regimes seen in these simulations agrees with the longevity of warm Antarctic conditions during the Eocene but also challenges our view of glacial inception. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) is a direct regulator of global sea level changes, but quantification of its long-term evolution at the ice sheet scale is challenging. Here, we combine for the first time a recently complied dataset of ice core records with the outputs of five different reanalysis products and two regional climate models to produce a reconciled 310-yr reconstruction of spatially and temporally complete SMB over the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS). Despite greatly variable signs and magnitudes of reconstructed SMB trends in the different regions, a significant positive trend (3.6 ± 0.8 Gt yr−1 decade−1) is observed for SMB over the entire AIS during the past 300 years, with a larger increase rate since 1801. The increased SMB cumulatively dampened global sea level rise by ∼14 mm between 1901 and 2010, which did not account for the ice sheet dynamical imbalance. The first and second modes of empirical orthogonal function analysis (EOF1 and EOF2) capture 38.0% and 24.6% of the total variability in reconstructed SMB, respectively. EOF1 consists of an east–west dipole of SMB changes over West Antarctica, primarily driven by Southern Annular Mode (SAM) variability. EOF2 represents a strong signal over the whole Antarctic Peninsula and coastal West Antarctica, which is not associated with SAM, but with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at the decadal scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic and Antarctic marine systems have in common high latitudes, large seasonal changes in light levels, cold air and sea temperatures, and sea ice. In other ways, however, they are strikingly different, including their: age, extent, geological structure, ice stability, and foodweb structure. Both regions contain very rapidly warming areas and climate impacts have been reported, as have dramatic future projections. However, the combined effects of a changing climate on oceanographic processes and foodweb dynamics are likely to influence their future fisheries in very different ways. Differences in the life-history strategies of the key zooplankton species (Antarctic krill in the Southern Ocean and Calanus copepods in the Arctic) will likely affect future productivity of fishery species and fisheries. To explore future scenarios for each region, this paper: (i) considers differing characteristics (including geographic, physical, and biological) that define polar marine ecosystems and reviews known and projected impacts of climate change on key zooplankton species that may impact fished species; (ii) summarizes existing fishery resources; (iii) synthesizes this information to generate future scenarios for fisheries; and (iv) considers the implications for future fisheries management. Published studies suggest that if an increase in open water during summer in Arctic and Subarctic seas results in increased primary and secondary production, biomass may increase for some important commercial fish stocks and new mixes of species may become targeted. In contrast, published studies suggest that in the Southern Ocean the potential for existing species to adapt is mixed and that the potential for the invasion of large and highly productive pelagic finfish species appears low. Thus, future Southern Ocean fisheries may largely be dependent on existing species. It is clear from this review that new management approaches will be needed that account for the changing dynamics in these regions under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Unlike in many polar regions, the spatial extent and duration of the sea ice season have increased in the Ross Sea sector of the Southern Ocean during the satellite era. Simultaneously, populations of Adélie penguins, a sea ice obligate, have been stable or increasing in the region. Relationships between Adélie penguin population growth and sea ice concentration (SIC) are complex, with sea ice driving different, sometimes contrasting, demographic patterns. Adélie penguins undergo a complete molt annually, replacing all their feathers while fasting shortly after the breeding season. Unlike most penguin species, a majority of Adélies are thought to molt on sea ice, away from the breeding colonies, which makes this period particularly difficult to study. Here, we evaluate the hypothesis that persistent areas of high SIC provide an important molting habitat for Adélie penguins. We analyzed data from geolocating dive recorders deployed year-round on 195 adult penguins at two colonies in the Ross Sea from 2017 to 2019. We identified molt by detecting extended gaps in postbreeding diving activity and used associated locations to define two key molting areas. Remotely sensed data indicated that SIC during molt was anomalously low during the study and has declined in the primary molt area since 1980. Further, annual return rates of penguins to breeding colonies were positively correlated with SIC in the molt areas over 20 y. Together these results suggest that sea ice conditions during Adélie penguin molt may represent a previously underappreciated annual bottleneck for adult survival. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stable water isotopologues of snow, firn and ice cores provide valuable information on past climate variations. Yet single profiles are generally not suitable for robust climate reconstructions. Stratigraphic noise, introduced by the irregular deposition, wind-driven erosion and redistribution of snow, impacts the utility of high-resolution isotope records, especially in low-accumulation areas. However, it is currently unknown how stratigraphic noise differs across the East Antarctic Plateau and how it is affected by local environmental conditions. Here, we assess the amount and structure of stratigraphic noise at seven sites along a 120 km transect on the plateau of Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica. Replicated oxygen isotope records of 1 m length were used to estimate signal-to-noise ratios as a measure of stratigraphic noise at sites characterised by different accumulation rates (43–64 mm w.e. a -1), snow surface roughnesses and slope inclinations. While we found a high level of stratigraphic noise at all sites, there was also considerable variation between sites. At sastrugi-dominated sites, greater stratigraphic noise coincided with stronger surface roughnesses, steeper slopes and lower accumulation rates, probably related to increased wind speeds. These results provide a first step to modelling stratigraphic noise and might guide site selection and sampling strategies for future expeditions to improve high-resolution climate reconstructions from low-accumulation regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Antarctic region has been experiencing some of the planet's strongest climatic changes, including an expected increase of the land temperature. The potential effects of this warming trend will lead ecosystems to a risk of losing biodiversity. Antarctic mosses and lichens host different microbial groups, microarthropods and meiofaunal organisms (e.g., tardigrades, rotifers). The eutardigrade Acutuncus antarcticus is considered a model animal to study the effect of increasing temperature due to global warming on Antarctic terrestrial communities. In this study, life history traits and fitness of this species are analyzed by rearing specimens at two different and increasing temperatures (5°C vs. 15°C). Moreover, the first transcriptome analysis on A. antarcticus is performed, exposing adult animals to a gradual increase of temperature (5°C, 10°C, 15°C, and 20°C) to find differentially expressed genes under short- (1 day) and long-term (15 days) heat stress. Acutuncus antarcticus specimens reared at 5°C live longer (maximum life span: 686 days), reach sexual maturity later, lay more eggs (which hatch in longer time and in lower percentage) compared with animals reared at 15°C. The fitness decreases in animals belonging to the second generation at both rearing temperatures. The short-term heat exposure leads to significant changes at transcriptomic level, with 67 differentially expressed genes. Of these, 23 upregulated genes suggest alterations of mitochondrial activity and oxido-reductive processes, and two intrinsically disordered protein genes confirm their role to cope with heat stress. The long-term exposure induces alterations limited to 14 genes, and only one annotated gene is upregulated in response to both heat stresses. The decline in transcriptomic response after a long-term exposure indicates that the changes observed in the short-term are likely due to an acclimation response. Therefore, A. antarcticus could be able to cope with increasing temperature over time, including the future conditions imposed by global climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

International attention to climate change phenomena has grown in the last decade; the active layer and permafrost are of great importance in understanding processes and future trends due to their role in energy flux regulation. The objective of this paper is to present active-layer temperature data for one Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring South hemisphere (CALM-S) site located on the Fildes Peninsula, King George Island, maritime Antarctica over an 57-month period (2008-2012). The monitoring site was installed during the summer of 2008 and consists of thermistors (accuracy of ±0.2 °C), arranged vertically with probes at different depths, recording data at hourly intervals in a highcapacity data logger. A series of statistical analyses was performed to describe the soil temperature time series, including a linear fit in order to identify global trends, and a series of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models was tested in order to define the best fit for the data. The affects of weather on the thermal regime of the active layer have been identified, providing insights into the influence of climate change on permafrost. The active-layer thermal regime in the studied period was typical of periglacial environments, with extreme variation in surface during the summer resulting in frequent freeze and thaw cycles. The active-layer thickness (ALT) over the studied period shows a degree of variability related to different annual weather conditions, reaching a maximum of 117.5 cm in 2009. The ARIMA model could describe the data adequately and is an important tool for more conclusive analysis and predictions when longer data sets are available. Despite the variability when comparing temperature readings and ACT over the studied period, no trend can be identified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global-mean sea-level rise will drive impacts and adaptation needs around the world's coasts over the 21st century and beyond. A key element in assessing these issues is the development of scenarios (or plausible futures) of local relative sea-level rise to support impact assessment and adaptation planning. This requires combining a number of different but uncertain components of sea level which can be linked to climatic and non-climatic (i.e., uplift/subsidence of coastal land) factors. A major concern remains about the possibility of significant contributions from the major Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and this must be factored into the assessments, despite the uncertainty. This paper reviews the different mechanisms which contribute to sea-level change and considers a methodology for combining the available data to create relative (or local) sea-level rise scenarios suitable for impact and adaptation assessments across a range of sophistication of analysis. The methods that are developed are pragmatic and consider the different needs of impact assessment, adaptation planning, and long-term decision making. This includes the requirements of strategic decision makers who rightly focus on low probability but high consequence changes and their consequences. Hence plausible high end sea-level rise scenarios beyond the conventional Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC) range and which take into account evidence beyond that from the current generation of climate models are developed and their application discussed. Continued review and development of sea-level scenarios is recommended, starting with assimilating the insights of the forthcoming IPCC AR5 assessment. WIREs Clim Change 2014, 5:129-150. doi: 10.1002/wcc.253 Conflict of interest: The authors have declared no conflicts of interest for this article. For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investigations of openwork block deposits have the potential to improve understanding of the production of substrates for biological colonisation, the control of geological structure and the impacts of climate change on landforms. As part of research into the morphology and characterisation of a blockfield located on the Northern Buttress of the Vesleskarvet Nunataks, Western Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica (2° W, 71° S), this paper investigates the influence that aspect has on weathering for a blockfield using data collected during the 2009-2012 Austral summer seasons. Proxy data recorded for weathering included rock hardness rebound values as well as visual evidence of flaking, pitting, surface roughness and lichen presence. Aspect was found to affect weathering of blockfield samples across the study site, with the south-facing sides being the least weathered of the directional aspects. This paper argues that a higher radiation budget associated with slope aspect and angle could drive thermal regimes and subsequent weathering of clast faces. Furthermore, in the absence of abundant precipitation, ice and snow cover become the primary source of moisture in this high-latitude Antarctic environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stable isotopic composition in Antarctic snow and ice is commonly regarded as one of invaluable palaeoclimate proxies and plays a critically important role in reconstructing past climate change. In this paper we summarized the spatial distribution and the controlling factors of δD, δO, d-excess and O-excess in Antarctic snow and ice, and discussed their reliability and applicability as palaeoclimate proxies. Recent progress in the stable isotopic records from Antarctic deep ice cores was reviewed, and perspectives on bridging the current understanding gaps were suggested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two semi-empirical models were developed for the Antarctic stratosphere to relate the shift of species within total chlorine (Cly = HCl + ClONO2 + HOCl + 2 × Cl2 + 2×Cl2O2 + ClO + Cl) into the active forms (here: ClOx = 2×Cl2O2 + ClO), and to relate the rate of ozone destruction to ClOx. These two models provide a fast and computationally inexpensive way to describe the inter- and intraannual evolution of ClOx and ozone mass deficit (OMD) in the Antarctic spring. The models are based on the underlying physics/chemistry of the system and capture the key chemical and physical processes in the Antarctic stratosphere that determine the interaction between climate change and Antarctic ozone depletion. They were developed considering bulk effects of chemical mechanisms for the duration of the Antarctic vortex period and quantities averaged over the vortex area. The model equations were regressed against observations of daytime ClO and OMD providing a set of empirical fit coefficients. Both semi-empirical models are able to explain much of the intra- and inter-annual variability observed in daily ClOx and OMD time series. This proof-ofconcept paper outlines the semi-empirical approach to describing the evolution of Antarctic chlorine activation and ozone depletion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the annual cycle and trends in Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) for 18 models used in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that were run with historical forcing for the 1850s to 2005. Many of the models have an annual SIE cycle that differs markedly from that observed over the last 30 years. The majority of models have too small of an SIE at the minimum in February, while several of the models have less than two-thirds of the observed SIE at the September maximum. In contrast to the satellite data, which exhibit a slight increase in SIE, the mean SIE of the models over 1979-2005 shows a decrease in each month, with the greatest multimodel mean percentage monthly decline of 13.6% decade−1 in February and the greatest absolute loss of ice of −0.40 × 106 km2 decade−1 in September. The models have very large differences in SIE over 1860-2005. Most of the control runs have statistically significant trends in SIE over their full time span, and all of the models have a negative trend in SIE since the mid-nineteenth century. The negative SIE trends in most of the model runs over 1979-2005 are a continuation of an earlier decline, suggesting that the processes responsible for the observed increase over the last 30 years are not being simulated correctly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper suggests that the Polar Regions are excellent places for thinking about historical interactions between climate change, science, and politics from the beginning of the Cold War up to the present. Since the second half of the 1940s, science has played a central role in contesting claims to political authority in both the Arctic and the Antarctic. Research conducted in the Polar Regions has made a major contribution to the science of climate change on a global scale, and research agendas have been closely connected in the two regions. Viewed from a comparative perspective, however, the historical experiences of global warming in the Arctic and Antarctica have been quite different. Climate research has suggested that warming is generally happening faster over much of the Arctic than the Antarctic. In addition, the recent histories of the two regions show that climate change in the Arctic is destabilizing politics there, whereas in Antarctica climate change is helping to reinforce the existing political structures framed by the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS). A comparative approach to the history of climate change in the Polar Regions helps to demonstrate that science, politics, and environmental change have each played important roles without making any single factor deterministic. WIREs Clim Change 2012, 3:145-159. doi: 10.1002/wcc.161 For further resources related to this article, please visit the . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]