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The paper aimed to evaluate the impacts of water pricing and quota policies under changing climatic conditions on the major production factors using economic-biophysical modeling. The data were collected by 382 questionnaires focusing on wheat, barley, cotton, alfalfa, and sugar beet crops in the 2017-2018 cropping year in North Khorasan Province, Iran. Climate change scenarios were defined as wet, moderate, and dry scenarios resulting from precipitation changes. The results showed that climate change scenarios reduce the total irrigated area of crops and total water used. Due to the effect of precipitation on crop yield, dry and moderate climate changes reduce the total gross income, while wet climate changes increase it. The scenarios of quota and pricing policies were then applied under climate change scenarios. The amount of water conserved by applying the quota policy was equal to the quota rate, while the impact of the pricing policy varied depending on the type of climate change. The highest amount of water conserved belonged to the conditions of dry climate change in Atrak and Central Desert catchments, which was about 6.8-8.6 and 3.83-14.48%, respectively. As the climate moves toward drought conditions in this province, the implementation of such policies can partially protect water resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water crisis and, particularly, drop in rainfall in Iran are not only an environmental matter but also a security issue. This paper tries to draw attention to the substantial social consequences of climate change in Iran and particularly addresses whether precipitation scarcity from 2007 to 2014 has a conflict-making effect in the province of Iran using the system GMM model. We show that rainfall shortage and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), as an index of drought, could stimulate the propensity for individuals to engage in disruptive activities in provinces of Iran. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]