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The growing richness of large-scale datasets has been crucial in driving the rapid advancement and wide adoption of machine learning technologies. The massive collection and usage of data, however, pose an increasing risk for people's private and sensitive information due to either inadvertent mishandling or malicious exploitation. Besides legislative solutions, many technical approaches have been proposed towards data privacy protection. However, they bear various limitations such as leading to degraded data availability and utility, or relying on heuristics and lacking solid theoretical bases. To overcome these limitations, we propose a formal information-theoretic definition for this utility-preserving privacy protection problem, and design a data-driven learnable data transformation framework that is capable of selectively suppressing sensitive attributes from target datasets while preserving the other useful attributes, regardless of whether or not they are known in advance or explicitly annotated for preservation. We provide rigorous theoretical analyses on the operational bounds for our framework, and carry out comprehensive experimental evaluations using datasets of a variety of modalities, including facial images, voice audio clips, and human activity motion sensor signals. Results demonstrate the effectiveness and generalizability of our method under various configurations on a multitude of tasks. Our code is available at https://github.com/jpmorganchase/MaSS., Comment: ICML 2024, GitHub: https://github.com/jpmorganchase/MaSS

This paper demonstrates the potential of vibration-based Foundation Models (FMs), pre-trained with unlabeled sensing data, to improve the robustness of run-time inference in (a class of) IoT applications. A case study is presented featuring a vehicle classification application using acoustic and seismic sensing. The work is motivated by the success of foundation models in the areas of natural language processing and computer vision, leading to generalizations of the FM concept to other domains as well, where significant amounts of unlabeled data exist that can be used for self-supervised pre-training. One such domain is IoT applications. Foundation models for selected sensing modalities in the IoT domain can be pre-trained in an environment-agnostic fashion using available unlabeled sensor data and then fine-tuned to the deployment at hand using a small amount of labeled data. The paper shows that the pre-training/fine-tuning approach improves the robustness of downstream inference and facilitates adaptation to different environmental conditions. More specifically, we present a case study in a real-world setting to evaluate a simple (vibration-based) FM-like model, called FOCAL, demonstrating its superior robustness and adaptation, compared to conventional supervised deep neural networks (DNNs). We also demonstrate its superior convergence over supervised solutions. Our findings highlight the advantages of vibration-based FMs (and FM-inspired selfsupervised models in general) in terms of inference robustness, runtime efficiency, and model adaptation (via fine-tuning) in resource-limited IoT settings.

This paper introduces SudokuSens, a generative framework for automated generation of training data in machine-learning-based Internet-of-Things (IoT) applications, such that the generated synthetic data mimic experimental configurations not encountered during actual sensor data collection. The framework improves the robustness of resulting deep learning models, and is intended for IoT applications where data collection is expensive. The work is motivated by the fact that IoT time-series data entangle the signatures of observed objects with the confounding intrinsic properties of the surrounding environment and the dynamic environmental disturbances experienced. To incorporate sufficient diversity into the IoT training data, one therefore needs to consider a combinatorial explosion of training cases that are multiplicative in the number of objects considered and the possible environmental conditions in which such objects may be encountered. Our framework substantially reduces these multiplicative training needs. To decouple object signatures from environmental conditions, we employ a Conditional Variational Autoencoder (CVAE) that allows us to reduce data collection needs from multiplicative to (nearly) linear, while synthetically generating (data for) the missing conditions. To obtain robustness with respect to dynamic disturbances, a session-aware temporal contrastive learning approach is taken. Integrating the aforementioned two approaches, SudokuSens significantly improves the robustness of deep learning for IoT applications. We explore the degree to which SudokuSens benefits downstream inference tasks in different data sets and discuss conditions under which the approach is particularly effective., Comment: Published in ACM Conference on Embedded Networked Sensor Systems (SenSys 23), November, 2023, Istanbul, Turkiye. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here for your personal use. Not for redistribution. Publication rights licensed to the Association for Computing Machinery

This paper proposes a novel contrastive learning framework, called FOCAL, for extracting comprehensive features from multimodal time-series sensing signals through self-supervised training. Existing multimodal contrastive frameworks mostly rely on the shared information between sensory modalities, but do not explicitly consider the exclusive modality information that could be critical to understanding the underlying sensing physics. Besides, contrastive frameworks for time series have not handled the temporal information locality appropriately. FOCAL solves these challenges by making the following contributions: First, given multimodal time series, it encodes each modality into a factorized latent space consisting of shared features and private features that are orthogonal to each other. The shared space emphasizes feature patterns consistent across sensory modalities through a modal-matching objective. In contrast, the private space extracts modality-exclusive information through a transformation-invariant objective. Second, we propose a temporal structural constraint for modality features, such that the average distance between temporally neighboring samples is no larger than that of temporally distant samples. Extensive evaluations are performed on four multimodal sensing datasets with two backbone encoders and two classifiers to demonstrate the superiority of FOCAL. It consistently outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines in downstream tasks with a clear margin, under different ratios of available labels. The code and self-collected dataset are available at https://github.com/tomoyoshki/focal., Comment: Code available at: [github](https://github.com/tomoyoshki/focal)

Automatic response forecasting for news media plays a crucial role in enabling content producers to efficiently predict the impact of news releases and prevent unexpected negative outcomes such as social conflict and moral injury. To effectively forecast responses, it is essential to develop measures that leverage the social dynamics and contextual information surrounding individuals, especially in cases where explicit profiles or historical actions of the users are limited (referred to as lurkers). As shown in a previous study, 97% of all tweets are produced by only the most active 25% of users. However, existing approaches have limited exploration of how to best process and utilize these important features. To address this gap, we propose a novel framework, named SocialSense, that leverages a large language model to induce a belief-centered graph on top of an existent social network, along with graph-based propagation to capture social dynamics. We hypothesize that the induced graph that bridges the gap between distant users who share similar beliefs allows the model to effectively capture the response patterns. Our method surpasses existing state-of-the-art in experimental evaluations for both zero-shot and supervised settings, demonstrating its effectiveness in response forecasting. Moreover, the analysis reveals the framework's capability to effectively handle unseen user and lurker scenarios, further highlighting its robustness and practical applicability., Comment: Accepted at EMNLP 2023 Main Conference

This paper addresses influence pathway discovery, a key emerging problem in today's online media. We propose a discovery algorithm that leverages recently published work on unsupervised interpretable ideological embedding, a mapping of ideological beliefs (done in a self-supervised fashion) into interpretable low-dimensional spaces. Computing the ideological embedding at scale allows one to analyze correlations between the ideological positions of leaders, influencers, news portals, or population segments, deriving potential influence pathways. The work is motivated by the importance of social media as the preeminent means for global interactions and collaborations on today's Internet, as well as their frequent (mis-)use to wield influence that targets social beliefs and attitudes of selected populations. Tools that enable the understanding and mapping of influence propagation through population segments on social media are therefore increasingly important. In this paper, influence is measured by the perceived ideological shift over time that is correlated with influencers' activity. Correlated shifts in ideological embeddings indicate changes, such as swings/switching (among competing ideologies), polarization (depletion of neutral ideological positions), escalation/radicalization (shifts to more extreme versions of the ideology), or unification/cooldown (shifts towards more neutral stances). Case-studies are presented to explore selected influence pathways (i) in a recent French election, (ii) during political discussions in the Philippines, and (iii) for some Russian messaging during the Russia/Ukraine conflict., Comment: This paper is accepted by IEEE CIC as an invited vision paper

This paper studies speculative reasoning task on real-world knowledge graphs (KG) that contain both \textit{false negative issue} (i.e., potential true facts being excluded) and \textit{false positive issue} (i.e., unreliable or outdated facts being included). State-of-the-art methods fall short in the speculative reasoning ability, as they assume the correctness of a fact is solely determined by its presence in KG, making them vulnerable to false negative/positive issues. The new reasoning task is formulated as a noisy Positive-Unlabeled learning problem. We propose a variational framework, namely nPUGraph, that jointly estimates the correctness of both collected and uncollected facts (which we call \textit{label posterior}) and updates model parameters during training. The label posterior estimation facilitates speculative reasoning from two perspectives. First, it improves the robustness of a label posterior-aware graph encoder against false positive links. Second, it identifies missing facts to provide high-quality grounds of reasoning. They are unified in a simple yet effective self-training procedure. Empirically, extensive experiments on three benchmark KG and one Twitter dataset with various degrees of false negative/positive cases demonstrate the effectiveness of nPUGraph., Comment: This paper is accepted by ACL-Findings 2023

The proliferation of political memes in modern information campaigns calls for efficient solutions for image classification by ideological affiliation. While significant advances have recently been made on text classification in modern natural language processing literature, understanding the political insinuation in imagery is less developed due to the hard nature of the problem. Unlike text, where meaning arises from juxtaposition of tokens (words) within some common linguistic structures, image semantics emerge from a much less constrained process of fusion of visual concepts. Thus, training a model to infer visual insinuation is possibly a more challenging problem. In this paper, we explore an alternative unsupervised approach that, instead, infers ideological affiliation from image propagation patterns on social media. The approach is shown to improve the F1-score by over 0.15 (nearly 25%) over previous unsupervised baselines, and then by another 0.05 (around 7%) in the presence of a small amount of supervision., Comment: n Proc. PhoMemes (in conjunction with ICWSM), Limassol, Cyprus, June 2023

Language models (LMs) automatically learn word embeddings during pre-training on language corpora. Although word embeddings are usually interpreted as feature vectors for individual words, their roles in language model generation remain underexplored. In this work, we theoretically and empirically revisit output word embeddings and find that their linear transformations are equivalent to steering language model generation styles. We name such steers LM-Steers and find them existing in LMs of all sizes. It requires learning parameters equal to 0.2% of the original LMs' size for steering each style. On tasks such as language model detoxification and sentiment control, LM-Steers can achieve comparable or superior performance compared with state-of-the-art controlled generation methods while maintaining a better balance with generation quality. The learned LM-Steer serves as a lens in text styles: it reveals that word embeddings are interpretable when associated with language model generations and can highlight text spans that most indicate the style differences. An LM-Steer is transferrable between different language models by an explicit form calculation. One can also continuously steer LMs simply by scaling the LM-Steer or compose multiple LM-Steers by adding their transformations. Our codes are publicly available at \url{https://github.com/Glaciohound/LM-Steer}., Comment: ACL 2024 Long Paper, 9 pages, 3 figures

Sustaining high fidelity and high throughput of perception tasks over vision sensor streams on edge devices remains a formidable challenge, especially given the continuing increase in image sizes (e.g., generated by 4K cameras) and complexity of DNN models. One promising approach involves criticality-aware processing, where the computation is directed selectively to critical portions of individual image frames. We introduce MOSAIC, a novel system for such criticality-aware concurrent processing of multiple vision sensing streams that provides a multiplicative increase in the achievable throughput with negligible loss in perception fidelity. MOSAIC determines critical regions from images received from multiple vision sensors and spatially bin-packs these regions using a novel multi-scale Mosaic Across Scales (MoS) tiling strategy into a single canvas frame, sized such that the edge device can retain sufficiently high processing throughput. Experimental studies using benchmark datasets for two tasks, Automatic License Plate Recognition and Drone-based Pedestrian Detection, show that MOSAIC, executing on a Jetson TX2 edge device, can provide dramatic gains in the throughput vs. fidelity tradeoff. For instance, for drone-based pedestrian detection, for a batch size of 4, MOSAIC can pack input frames from 6 cameras to achieve (a) 4.75x higher throughput (23 FPS per camera, cumulatively 138FPS) with less than 1% accuracy loss, compared to a First Come First Serve (FCFS) processing paradigm., Comment: To appear in ACM Multimedia Systems 2023

This paper investigates cross-lingual temporal knowledge graph reasoning problem, which aims to facilitate reasoning on Temporal Knowledge Graphs (TKGs) in low-resource languages by transfering knowledge from TKGs in high-resource ones. The cross-lingual distillation ability across TKGs becomes increasingly crucial, in light of the unsatisfying performance of existing reasoning methods on those severely incomplete TKGs, especially in low-resource languages. However, it poses tremendous challenges in two aspects. First, the cross-lingual alignments, which serve as bridges for knowledge transfer, are usually too scarce to transfer sufficient knowledge between two TKGs. Second, temporal knowledge discrepancy of the aligned entities, especially when alignments are unreliable, can mislead the knowledge distillation process. We correspondingly propose a mutually-paced knowledge distillation model MP-KD, where a teacher network trained on a source TKG can guide the training of a student network on target TKGs with an alignment module. Concretely, to deal with the scarcity issue, MP-KD generates pseudo alignments between TKGs based on the temporal information extracted by our representation module. To maximize the efficacy of knowledge transfer and control the noise caused by the temporal knowledge discrepancy, we enhance MP-KD with a temporal cross-lingual attention mechanism to dynamically estimate the alignment strength. The two procedures are mutually paced along with model training. Extensive experiments on twelve cross-lingual TKG transfer tasks in the EventKG benchmark demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed MP-KD method., Comment: This paper is accepted by The Web Conference 2023

Recent studies have revealed the intriguing few-shot learning ability of pretrained language models (PLMs): They can quickly adapt to a new task when fine-tuned on a small amount of labeled data formulated as prompts, without requiring abundant task-specific annotations. Despite their promising performance, most existing few-shot approaches that only learn from the small training set still underperform fully supervised training by nontrivial margins. In this work, we study few-shot learning with PLMs from a different perspective: We first tune an autoregressive PLM on the few-shot samples and then use it as a generator to synthesize a large amount of novel training samples which augment the original training set. To encourage the generator to produce label-discriminative samples, we train it via weighted maximum likelihood where the weight of each token is automatically adjusted based on a discriminative meta-learning objective. A classification PLM can then be fine-tuned on both the few-shot and the synthetic samples with regularization for better generalization and stability. Our approach FewGen achieves an overall better result across seven classification tasks of the GLUE benchmark than existing few-shot learning methods, improving no-augmentation methods by 5+ average points, and outperforming augmentation methods by 3+ average points., Comment: ICML 2023. (Code: https://github.com/yumeng5/FewGen)

In this paper, we investigate a realistic but underexplored problem, called few-shot temporal knowledge graph reasoning, that aims to predict future facts for newly emerging entities based on extremely limited observations in evolving graphs. It offers practical value in applications that need to derive instant new knowledge about new entities in temporal knowledge graphs (TKGs) with minimal supervision. The challenges mainly come from the few-shot and time shift properties of new entities. First, the limited observations associated with them are insufficient for training a model from scratch. Second, the potentially dynamic distributions from the initially observable facts to the future facts ask for explicitly modeling the evolving characteristics of new entities. We correspondingly propose a novel Meta Temporal Knowledge Graph Reasoning (MetaTKGR) framework. Unlike prior work that relies on rigid neighborhood aggregation schemes to enhance low-data entity representation, MetaTKGR dynamically adjusts the strategies of sampling and aggregating neighbors from recent facts for new entities, through temporally supervised signals on future facts as instant feedback. Besides, such a meta temporal reasoning procedure goes beyond existing meta-learning paradigms on static knowledge graphs that fail to handle temporal adaptation with large entity variance. We further provide a theoretical analysis and propose a temporal adaptation regularizer to stabilize the meta temporal reasoning over time. Empirically, extensive experiments on three real-world TKGs demonstrate the superiority of MetaTKGR over state-of-the-art baselines by a large margin., Comment: This paper is accepted by Neurips 2022

Purely data-driven deep neural networks (DNNs) applied to physical engineering systems can infer relations that violate physics laws, thus leading to unexpected consequences. To address this challenge, we propose a physics-model-based DNN framework, called Phy-Taylor, that accelerates learning compliant representations with physical knowledge. The Phy-Taylor framework makes two key contributions; it introduces a new architectural Physics-compatible neural network (PhN), and features a novel compliance mechanism, we call {\em Physics-guided Neural Network Editing\}. The PhN aims to directly capture nonlinearities inspired by physical quantities, such as kinetic energy, potential energy, electrical power, and aerodynamic drag force. To do so, the PhN augments neural network layers with two key components: (i) monomials of Taylor series expansion of nonlinear functions capturing physical knowledge, and (ii) a suppressor for mitigating the influence of noise. The neural-network editing mechanism further modifies network links and activation functions consistently with physical knowledge. As an extension, we also propose a self-correcting Phy-Taylor framework that introduces two additional capabilities: (i) physics-model-based safety relationship learning, and (ii) automatic output correction when violations of safety occur. Through experiments, we show that (by expressing hard-to-learn nonlinearities directly and by constraining dependencies) Phy-Taylor features considerably fewer parameters, and a remarkably accelerated training process, while offering enhanced model robustness and accuracy., Comment: Working Paper

This paper presents a semi-supervised learning framework that is new in being designed for automatic modulation classification (AMC). By carefully utilizing unlabeled signal data with a self-supervised contrastive-learning pre-training step, our framework achieves higher performance given smaller amounts of labeled data, thereby largely reducing the labeling burden of deep learning. We evaluate the performance of our semi-supervised framework on a public dataset. The evaluation results demonstrate that our semi-supervised approach significantly outperforms supervised frameworks thereby substantially enhancing our ability to train deep neural networks for automatic modulation classification in a manner that leverages unlabeled data.

This paper investigates the cost function learning in social information networks, wherein the influence of humans' memory on information consumption is explicitly taken into account. We first propose a model for social information-diffusion dynamics with a focus on systematic modeling of asymmetric cognitive bias, represented by confirmation bias and novelty bias. Building on the proposed social model, we then propose the M$^{3}$IRL: a model and maximum-entropy based inverse reinforcement learning framework for learning the cost functions of target individuals in the memorized social networks. Compared with the existing Bayesian IRL, maximum entropy IRL, relative entropy IRL and maximum causal entropy IRL, the characteristics of M$^{3}$IRL are significantly different here: no dependency on the Markov Decision Process principle, the need of only a single finite-time trajectory sample, and bounded decision variables. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed social information-diffusion model and the M$^{3}$IRL algorithm are validated by the online social media data., Comment: 15 pages

With the increasing demands on e-commerce platforms, numerous user action history is emerging. Those enriched action records are vital to understand users' interests and intents. Recently, prior works for user behavior prediction mainly focus on the interactions with product-side information. However, the interactions with search queries, which usually act as a bridge between users and products, are still under investigated. In this paper, we explore a new problem named temporal event forecasting, a generalized user behavior prediction task in a unified query product evolutionary graph, to embrace both query and product recommendation in a temporal manner. To fulfill this setting, there involves two challenges: (1) the action data for most users is scarce; (2) user preferences are dynamically evolving and shifting over time. To tackle those issues, we propose a novel Retrieval-Enhanced Temporal Event (RETE) forecasting framework. Unlike existing methods that enhance user representations via roughly absorbing information from connected entities in the whole graph, RETE efficiently and dynamically retrieves relevant entities centrally on each user as high-quality subgraphs, preventing the noise propagation from the densely evolutionary graph structures that incorporate abundant search queries. And meanwhile, RETE autoregressively accumulates retrieval-enhanced user representations from each time step, to capture evolutionary patterns for joint query and product prediction. Empirically, extensive experiments on both the public benchmark and four real-world industrial datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed RETE method., Comment: The Web Conference 2022

Object detection in state-of-the-art Autonomous Vehicles (AV) framework relies heavily on deep neural networks. Typically, these networks perform object detection uniformly on the entire camera LiDAR frames. However, this uniformity jeopardizes the safety of the AV by giving the same priority to all objects in the scenes regardless of their risk of collision to the AV. In this paper, we present a new end-to-end pipeline for AV that introduces the concept of LiDAR cluster first and camera inference later to detect and classify objects. The benefits of our proposed framework are twofold. First, our pipeline prioritizes detecting objects that pose a higher risk of collision to the AV, giving more time for the AV to react to unsafe conditions. Second, it also provides, on average, faster inference speeds compared to popular deep neural network pipelines. We design our framework using the real-world datasets, the Waymo Open Dataset, solving challenges arising from the limitations of LiDAR sensors and object detection algorithms. We show that our novel object detection pipeline prioritizes the detection of higher risk objects while simultaneously achieving comparable accuracy and a 25% higher average speed compared to camera inference only., Comment: 6 pages

This paper develops a novel unsupervised algorithm for belief representation learning in polarized networks that (i) uncovers the latent dimensions of the underlying belief space and (ii) jointly embeds users and content items (that they interact with) into that space in a manner that facilitates a number of downstream tasks, such as stance detection, stance prediction, and ideology mapping. Inspired by total correlation in information theory, we propose the Information-Theoretic Variational Graph Auto-Encoder (InfoVGAE) that learns to project both users and content items (e.g., posts that represent user views) into an appropriate disentangled latent space. To better disentangle latent variables in that space, we develop a total correlation regularization module, a Proportional-Integral (PI) control module, and adopt rectified Gaussian distribution to ensure the orthogonality. The latent representation of users and content can then be used to quantify their ideological leaning and detect/predict their stances on issues. We evaluate the performance of the proposed InfoVGAE on three real-world datasets, of which two are collected from Twitter and one from U.S. Congress voting records. The evaluation results show that our model outperforms state-of-the-art unsupervised models by reducing 10.5% user clustering errors and achieving 12.1% higher F1 scores for stance separation of content items. In addition, InfoVGAE produces a comparable result with supervised models. We also discuss its performance on stance prediction and user ranking within ideological groups., Comment: In Proceedings of the 45th International ACM SIGIR Conference on Research and Development in Information Retrieval (SIGIR '22)

This paper describes a novel diffusion model, DyDiff-VAE, for information diffusion prediction on social media. Given the initial content and a sequence of forwarding users, DyDiff-VAE aims to estimate the propagation likelihood for other potential users and predict the corresponding user rankings. Inferring user interests from diffusion data lies the foundation of diffusion prediction, because users often forward the information in which they are interested or the information from those who share similar interests. Their interests also evolve over time as the result of the dynamic social influence from neighbors and the time-sensitive information gained inside/outside the social media. Existing works fail to model users' intrinsic interests from the diffusion data and assume user interests remain static along the time. DyDiff-VAE advances the state of the art in two directions: (i) We propose a dynamic encoder to infer the evolution of user interests from observed diffusion data. (ii) We propose a dual attentive decoder to estimate the propagation likelihood by integrating information from both the initial cascade content and the forwarding user sequence. Extensive experiments on four real-world datasets from Twitter and Youtube demonstrate the advantages of the proposed model; we show that it achieves 43.3% relative gains over the best baseline on average. Moreover, it has the lowest run-time compared with recurrent neural network based models., Comment: In SIGIR'21

In this paper, we propose a pubic opinion model with incorporation of asymmetric cognitive bias: confirmation bias and negativity bias. We then investigate the generic modeling guidance of capturing asymmetric confirmation bias and negativity bias. A numerical examples is provided to demonstrate the correctness of asymmetric cognitive bias model., Comment: 5 pages, 5 figures

In E-commerce, a key challenge in text generation is to find a good trade-off between word diversity and accuracy (relevance) in order to make generated text appear more natural and human-like. In order to improve the relevance of generated results, conditional text generators were developed that use input keywords or attributes to produce the corresponding text. Prior work, however, do not finely control the diversity of automatically generated sentences. For example, it does not control the order of keywords to put more relevant ones first. Moreover, it does not explicitly control the balance between diversity and accuracy. To remedy these problems, we propose a fine-grained controllable generative model, called~\textit{Apex}, that uses an algorithm borrowed from automatic control (namely, a variant of the \textit{proportional, integral, and derivative (PID) controller}) to precisely manipulate the diversity/accuracy trade-off of generated text. The algorithm is injected into a Conditional Variational Autoencoder (CVAE), allowing \textit{Apex} to control both (i) the order of keywords in the generated sentences (conditioned on the input keywords and their order), and (ii) the trade-off between diversity and accuracy. Evaluation results on real-world datasets show that the proposed method outperforms existing generative models in terms of diversity and relevance. Apex is currently deployed to generate production descriptions and item recommendation reasons in Taobao owned by Alibaba, the largest E-commerce platform in China. The A/B production test results show that our method improves click-through rate (CTR) by 13.17\% compared to the existing method for production descriptions. For item recommendation reason, it is able to increase CTR by 6.89\% and 1.42\% compared to user reviews and top-K item recommendation without reviews, respectively.

This paper studies social system inference from a single trajectory of public evolving opinions, wherein observation noise leads to the statistical dependence of samples on time and coordinates. We first propose a cyber-social system that comprises individuals in a social network and a set of information sources in a cyber layer, whose opinion dynamics explicitly takes confirmation bias, novelty bias and process noise into account. Based on the proposed social model, we then study the sample complexity of least-square auto-regressive model estimation, which governs the number of observations that are sufficient for the identified model to achieve the prescribed levels of accuracy and confidence. Building on the identified social model, we then investigate social inference, with particular focus on the weighted network topology, the subconscious bias and the model parameters of confirmation bias and novelty bias. Finally, the theoretical results and the effectiveness of the proposed social model and inference algorithm are validated by the US Senate Member Ideology data.

The paper presents an efficient real-time scheduling algorithm for intelligent real-time edge services, defined as those that perform machine intelligence tasks, such as voice recognition, LIDAR processing, or machine vision, on behalf of local embedded devices that are themselves unable to support extensive computations. The work contributes to a recent direction in real-time computing that develops scheduling algorithms for machine intelligence tasks with anytime prediction. We show that deep neural network workflows can be cast as imprecise computations, each with a mandatory part and (several) optional parts whose execution utility depends on input data. The goal of the real-time scheduler is to maximize the average accuracy of deep neural network outputs while meeting task deadlines, thanks to opportunistic shedding of the least necessary optional parts. The work is motivated by the proliferation of increasingly ubiquitous but resource-constrained embedded devices (for applications ranging from autonomous cars to the Internet of Things) and the desire to develop services that endow them with intelligence. Experiments on recent GPU hardware and a state of the art deep neural network for machine vision illustrate that our scheme can increase the overall accuracy by 10%-20% while incurring (nearly) no deadline misses.

This paper reviews the novel concept of controllable variational autoencoder (ControlVAE), discusses its parameter tuning to meet application needs, derives its key analytic properties, and offers useful extensions and applications. ControlVAE is a new variational autoencoder (VAE) framework that combines the automatic control theory with the basic VAE to stabilize the KL-divergence of VAE models to a specified value. It leverages a non-linear PI controller, a variant of the proportional-integral-derivative (PID) control, to dynamically tune the weight of the KL-divergence term in the evidence lower bound (ELBO) using the output KL-divergence as feedback. This allows us to precisely control the KL-divergence to a desired value (set point), which is effective in avoiding posterior collapse and learning disentangled representations. In order to improve the ELBO over the regular VAE, we provide simplified theoretical analysis to inform setting the set point of KL-divergence for ControlVAE. We observe that compared to other methods that seek to balance the two terms in VAE's objective, ControlVAE leads to better learning dynamics. In particular, it can achieve a good trade-off between reconstruction quality and KL-divergence. We evaluate the proposed method on three tasks: image generation, language modeling and disentangled representation learning. The results show that ControlVAE can achieve much better reconstruction quality than the other methods for comparable disentanglement. On the language modeling task, ControlVAE can avoid posterior collapse (KL vanishing) and improve the diversity of generated text. Moreover, our method can change the optimization trajectory, improving the ELBO and the reconstruction quality for image generation., Comment: arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:2004.05988

This paper challenges the common assumption that the weight $\beta$, in $\beta$-VAE, should be larger than $1$ in order to effectively disentangle latent factors. We demonstrate that $\beta$-VAE, with $\beta < 1$, can not only attain good disentanglement but also significantly improve reconstruction accuracy via dynamic control. The paper removes the inherent trade-off between reconstruction accuracy and disentanglement for $\beta$-VAE. Existing methods, such as $\beta$-VAE and FactorVAE, assign a large weight to the KL-divergence term in the objective function, leading to high reconstruction errors for the sake of better disentanglement. To mitigate this problem, a ControlVAE has recently been developed that dynamically tunes the KL-divergence weight in an attempt to control the trade-off to more a favorable point. However, ControlVAE fails to eliminate the conflict between the need for a large $\beta$ (for disentanglement) and the need for a small $\beta$. Instead, we propose DynamicVAE that maintains a different $\beta$ at different stages of training, thereby decoupling disentanglement and reconstruction accuracy. In order to evolve the weight, $\beta$, along a trajectory that enables such decoupling, DynamicVAE leverages a modified incremental PI (proportional-integral) controller, and employs a moving average as well as a hybrid annealing method to evolve the value of KL-divergence smoothly in a tightly controlled fashion. We theoretically prove the stability of the proposed approach. Evaluation results on three benchmark datasets demonstrate that DynamicVAE significantly improves the reconstruction accuracy while achieving disentanglement comparable to the best of existing methods. The results verify that our method can separate disentangled representation learning and reconstruction, removing the inherent tension between the two.

The field of IoT has blossomed and is positively influencing many application domains. In this paper, we bring out the unique challenges this field poses to research in computer systems and networking. The unique challenges arise from the unique characteristics of IoT systems such as the diversity of application domains where they are used and the increasingly demanding protocols they are being called upon to run (such as, video and LIDAR processing) on constrained resources (on-node and network). We show how these open challenges can benefit from foundations laid in other areas, such as, 5G cellular protocols, ML model reduction, and device-edge-cloud offloading. We then discuss the unique challenges for reliability, security, and privacy posed by IoT systems due to their salient characteristics which include heterogeneity of devices and protocols, dependence on the physical environment, and the close coupling with humans. We again show how the open research challenges benefit from reliability, security, and privacy advancements in other areas. We conclude by providing a vision for a desirable end state for IoT systems., Comment: Invited paper to the IEEE IoT Journal

Previous hypergraph expansions are solely carried out on either vertex level or hyperedge level, thereby missing the symmetric nature of data co-occurrence, and resulting in information loss. To address the problem, this paper treats vertices and hyperedges equally and proposes a new hypergraph formulation named the \emph{line expansion (LE)} for hypergraphs learning. The new expansion bijectively induces a homogeneous structure from the hypergraph by treating vertex-hyperedge pairs as "line nodes". By reducing the hypergraph to a simple graph, the proposed \emph{line expansion} makes existing graph learning algorithms compatible with the higher-order structure and has been proven as a unifying framework for various hypergraph expansions. We evaluate the proposed line expansion on five hypergraph datasets, the results show that our method beats SOTA baselines by a significant margin., Comment: CIKM 2022, GitHub: https://github.com/ycq091044/LEGCN

Recent re-opening policies in the US, following a period of social distancing measures, introduced a significant increase in daily COVID-19 infections, calling for a roll-back or substantial revisiting of these policies in many states. The situation is suggestive of difficulties modeling the impact of partial distancing/re-opening policies on future epidemic spread for purposes of choosing safe alternatives. More specifically, one needs to understand the impact of manipulating the availability of social interaction venues (e.g., schools, workplaces, and retail establishments) on virus spread. We introduce a model, inspired by social networks research, that answers the above question. Our model compartmentalizes interaction venues into categories we call mixing domains, enabling one to predict COVID-19 contagion trends in different geographic regions under different what if assumptions on partial re-opening of individual domains. We apply our model to several highly impacted states showing (i) how accurately it predicts the extent of current resurgence (from available policy descriptions), and (ii) what alternatives might be more effective at mitigating the second wave. We further compare policies that rely on partial venue closure to policies that espouse wide-spread periodic testing instead (i.e., in lieu of social distancing). Our models predict that the benefits of (mandatory) testing out-shadow the benefits of partial venue closure, suggesting that perhaps more efforts should be directed to such a mitigation strategy.

GitHub has become a popular social application platform, where a large number of users post their open source projects. In particular, an increasing number of researchers release repositories of source code related to their research papers in order to attract more people to follow their work. Motivated by this trend, we describe a novel item-item cross-platform recommender system, $\textit{paper2repo}$, that recommends relevant repositories on GitHub that match a given paper in an academic search system such as Microsoft Academic. The key challenge is to identify the similarity between an input paper and its related repositories across the two platforms, $\textit{without the benefit of human labeling}$. Towards that end, paper2repo integrates text encoding and constrained graph convolutional networks (GCN) to automatically learn and map the embeddings of papers and repositories into the same space, where proximity offers the basis for recommendation. To make our method more practical in real life systems, labels used for model training are computed automatically from features of user actions on GitHub. In machine learning, such automatic labeling is often called {\em distant supervision\/}. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first distant-supervised cross-platform (paper to repository) matching system. We evaluate the performance of paper2repo on real-world data sets collected from GitHub and Microsoft Academic. Results demonstrate that it outperforms other state of the art recommendation methods.

Variational Autoencoders (VAE) and their variants have been widely used in a variety of applications, such as dialog generation, image generation and disentangled representation learning. However, the existing VAE models have some limitations in different applications. For example, a VAE easily suffers from KL vanishing in language modeling and low reconstruction quality for disentangling. To address these issues, we propose a novel controllable variational autoencoder framework, ControlVAE, that combines a controller, inspired by automatic control theory, with the basic VAE to improve the performance of resulting generative models. Specifically, we design a new non-linear PI controller, a variant of the proportional-integral-derivative (PID) control, to automatically tune the hyperparameter (weight) added in the VAE objective using the output KL-divergence as feedback during model training. The framework is evaluated using three applications; namely, language modeling, disentangled representation learning, and image generation. The results show that ControlVAE can achieve better disentangling and reconstruction quality than the existing methods. For language modelling, it not only averts the KL-vanishing, but also improves the diversity of generated text. Finally, we also demonstrate that ControlVAE improves the reconstruction quality of generated images compared to the original VAE., Comment: accepted by ICML2020

Modern online media, such as Twitter, Instagram, and YouTube, enable anyone to become an information producer and to offer online content for potentially global consumption. By increasing the amount of globally accessible real-time information, today's ubiquitous producers contribute to a world, where an individual consumes vanishingly smaller fractions of all produced content. In general, consumers preferentially select information that closely matches their individual views and values. The bias inherent in such selection is further magnified by today's information curation services that maximize user engagement (and thus service revenue) by filtering new content in accordance with observed consumer preferences. Consequently, individuals get exposed to increasingly narrower bands of the ideology spectrum. Societies get fragmented into increasingly ideologically isolated enclaves. These enclaves (or echo-chambers) then become vulnerable to misinformation spread, which in turn further magnifies polarization and bias. We call this dynamic the paradox of information access; a growing ideological fragmentation in the age of sharing. This article describes the technical, economic, and socio-cognitive contributors to this paradox, and explores research directions towards its mitigation., Comment: 13 pages, 6 figures

The paper develops a stochastic model of drift in human beliefs that shows that today's sheer volume of accessible information, combined with consumers' confirmation bias and natural preference to more outlying content, necessarily lead to increased polarization. The model explains the paradox of growing ideological fragmentation in the age of increased sharing. As social media, search engines, and other real-time information sharing outlets purport to facilitate access to information, a need for content filtering arises due to the ensuing information overload. In general, consumers select information that matches their individual views and values. The bias inherent in such selection is echoed by today's information curation services that maximize user engagement by filtering new content in accordance with observed consumer preferences. Consequently, individuals get exposed to increasingly narrower bands of the ideology spectrum, thus fragmenting society into increasingly ideologically isolated enclaves. We call this dynamic the paradox of information access. The model also suggests the disproportionate damage attainable with a small infusion of well-positioned misinformation. The paper describes the modeling methodology, and evaluates modeling results for different population sizes and parameter settings., Comment: An updated version of this preprint was submitted to IEEE TCNS

Oversmoothing has been assumed to be the major cause of performance drop in deep graph convolutional networks (GCNs). In this paper, we propose a new view that deep GCNs can actually learn to anti-oversmooth during training. This work interprets a standard GCN architecture as layerwise integration of a Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP) and graph regularization. We analyze and conclude that before training, the final representation of a deep GCN does over-smooth, however, it learns anti-oversmoothing during training. Based on the conclusion, the paper further designs a cheap but effective trick to improve GCN training. We verify our conclusions and evaluate the trick on three citation networks and further provide insights on neighborhood aggregation in GCNs., Comment: 19 pages

Much work on social media opinion polarization focuses on a flat categorization of stances (or orthogonal beliefs) of different communities from media traces. We extend in this work in two important respects. First, we detect not only points of disagreement between communities, but also points of agreement. In other words, we estimate community beliefs in the presence of overlap. Second, in lieu of flat categorization, we consider hierarchical belief estimation, where communities might be hierarchically divided. For example, two opposing parties might disagree on core issues, but within a party, despite agreement on fundamentals, disagreement might occur on further details. We call the resulting combined problem a hierarchical overlapping belief estimation problem. To solve it, this paper develops a new class of unsupervised Non-negative Matrix Factorization (NMF) algorithms, we call Belief Structured Matrix Factorization (BSMF). Our proposed unsupervised algorithm captures both the latent belief intersections and dissimilarities, as well as a hierarchical structure. We discuss the properties of the algorithm and evaluate it on both synthetic and real-world datasets. In the synthetic dataset, our model reduces error by 40%. In real Twitter traces, it improves accuracy by around 10%. The model also achieves 96.08% self-consistency in a sanity check., Comment: accepted in ASONAM 2020

As the ongoing rapid urbanization takes place with an ever-increasing speed, fully modeling urban dynamics becomes more and more challenging, but also a necessity for socioeconomic development. It is challenging because human activities and constructions are ubiquitous; urban landscape and life content change anywhere and anytime. It's crucial due to the fact that only up-to-date urban dynamics can enable governors to optimize their city planning strategy and help individuals organize their daily lives in a more efficient way. Previous geographic topic model based methods attempt to solve this problem but suffer from high computational cost and memory consumption, limiting their scalability to city level applications. Also, strong prior assumptions make such models fail to capture certain patterns by nature. To bridge the gap, we propose Macross, a metapath guided embedding approach to jointly model location, time and text information. Given a dataset of geo-tagged social media posts, we extract and aggregate location and time and construct a heterogeneous information network using the aggregated space and time. Metapath2vec based approach is used to construct vector representations for times, locations and frequent words such that co-occurrence pairs of nodes are closer in latent space. The vector representations will be used to infer related time, locations or keywords for a user query. Experiments done on enormous datasets show our model can generate comparable if not better quality query results compared to state of the art models and outperform some cutting-edge models for activity recovery and classification.

Recent advances in deep learning motivate the use of deep neural networks in Internet-of-Things (IoT) applications. These networks are modelled after signal processing in the human brain, thereby leading to significant advantages at perceptual tasks such as vision and speech recognition. IoT applications, however, often measure physical phenomena, where the underlying physics (such as inertia, wireless signal propagation, or the natural frequency of oscillation) are fundamentally a function of signal frequencies, offering better features in the frequency domain. This observation leads to a fundamental question: For IoT applications, can one develop a new brand of neural network structures that synthesize features inspired not only by the biology of human perception but also by the fundamental nature of physics? Hence, in this paper, instead of using conventional building blocks (e.g., convolutional and recurrent layers), we propose a new foundational neural network building block, the Short-Time Fourier Neural Network (STFNet). It integrates a widely-used time-frequency analysis method, the Short-Time Fourier Transform, into data processing to learn features directly in the frequency domain, where the physics of underlying phenomena leave better foot-prints. STFNets bring additional flexibility to time-frequency analysis by offering novel nonlinear learnable operations that are spectral-compatible. Moreover, STFNets show that transforming signals to a domain that is more connected to the underlying physics greatly simplifies the learning process. We demonstrate the effectiveness of STFNets with extensive experiments. STFNets significantly outperform the state-of-the-art deep learning models in all experiments. A STFNet, therefore, demonstrates superior capability as the fundamental building block of deep neural networks for IoT applications for various sensor inputs.

Deep neural networks show great potential as solutions to many sensing application problems, but their excessive resource demand slows down execution time, pausing a serious impediment to deployment on low-end devices. To address this challenge, recent literature focused on compressing neural network size to improve performance. We show that changing neural network size does not proportionally affect performance attributes of interest, such as execution time. Rather, extreme run-time nonlinearities exist over the network configuration space. Hence, we propose a novel framework, called FastDeepIoT, that uncovers the non-linear relation between neural network structure and execution time, then exploits that understanding to find network configurations that significantly improve the trade-off between execution time and accuracy on mobile and embedded devices. FastDeepIoT makes two key contributions. First, FastDeepIoT automatically learns an accurate and highly interpretable execution time model for deep neural networks on the target device. This is done without prior knowledge of either the hardware specifications or the detailed implementation of the used deep learning library. Second, FastDeepIoT informs a compression algorithm how to minimize execution time on the profiled device without impacting accuracy. We evaluate FastDeepIoT using three different sensing-related tasks on two mobile devices: Nexus 5 and Galaxy Nexus. FastDeepIoT further reduces the neural network execution time by $48\%$ to $78\%$ and energy consumption by $37\%$ to $69\%$ compared with the state-of-the-art compression algorithms., Comment: Accepted by SenSys '18

Online social media, such as Twitter and Instagram, democratized information broadcast, allowing anyone to share information about themselves and their surroundings at an unprecedented scale. The large volume of information thus posted on these media offer a new lens into the physical world through the eyes of the social network. The exploitation of this lens to inspect aspects of world state has recently been termed social sensing. The power of manipulating reality via the use (or intentional misuse) of social media opened concerns with issues ranging from radicalization by terror propaganda to potential manipulation of elections in mature democracies. Many important challenges and open research questions arise in this emerging field that aims to better understand how information can be extracted from the medium and what properties characterize the extracted information and the world it represents. Addressing the above challenges requires multi-disciplinary research at the intersection of computer science and social sciences that combines cyber-physical computing, sociology, sensor networks, social networks, cognition, data mining, estimation theory, data fusion, information theory, linguistics, machine learning, behavioral economics, and possibly others. This paper surveys important directions in social sensing, identifies current research challenges, and outlines avenues for future research., Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures, Accepted to IEEE Computer

Recent advances in deep learning have led various applications to unprecedented achievements, which could potentially bring higher intelligence to a broad spectrum of mobile and ubiquitous applications. Although existing studies have demonstrated the effectiveness and feasibility of running deep neural network inference operations on mobile and embedded devices, they overlooked the reliability of mobile computing models. Reliability measurements such as predictive uncertainty estimations are key factors for improving the decision accuracy and user experience. In this work, we propose RDeepSense, the first deep learning model that provides well-calibrated uncertainty estimations for resource-constrained mobile and embedded devices. RDeepSense enables the predictive uncertainty by adopting a tunable proper scoring rule as the training criterion and dropout as the implicit Bayesian approximation, which theoretically proves its correctness.To reduce the computational complexity, RDeepSense employs efficient dropout and predictive distribution estimation instead of model ensemble or sampling-based method for inference operations. We evaluate RDeepSense with four mobile sensing applications using Intel Edison devices. Results show that RDeepSense can reduce around 90% of the energy consumption while producing superior uncertainty estimations and preserving at least the same model accuracy compared with other state-of-the-art methods.

Recent advances in deep learning motivate the use of deep neutral networks in sensing applications, but their excessive resource needs on constrained embedded devices remain an important impediment. A recently explored solution space lies in compressing (approximating or simplifying) deep neural networks in some manner before use on the device. We propose a new compression solution, called DeepIoT, that makes two key contributions in that space. First, unlike current solutions geared for compressing specific types of neural networks, DeepIoT presents a unified approach that compresses all commonly used deep learning structures for sensing applications, including fully-connected, convolutional, and recurrent neural networks, as well as their combinations. Second, unlike solutions that either sparsify weight matrices or assume linear structure within weight matrices, DeepIoT compresses neural network structures into smaller dense matrices by finding the minimum number of non-redundant hidden elements, such as filters and dimensions required by each layer, while keeping the performance of sensing applications the same. Importantly, it does so using an approach that obtains a global view of parameter redundancies, which is shown to produce superior compression. We conduct experiments with five different sensing-related tasks on Intel Edison devices. DeepIoT outperforms all compared baseline algorithms with respect to execution time and energy consumption by a significant margin. It reduces the size of deep neural networks by 90% to 98.9%. It is thus able to shorten execution time by 71.4% to 94.5%, and decrease energy consumption by 72.2% to 95.7%. These improvements are achieved without loss of accuracy. The results underscore the potential of DeepIoT for advancing the exploitation of deep neural networks on resource-constrained embedded devices., Comment: Published in SenSys2017. Code is available on https://github.com/yscacaca/DeepIoT

Mobile sensing applications usually require time-series inputs from sensors. Some applications, such as tracking, can use sensed acceleration and rate of rotation to calculate displacement based on physical system models. Other applications, such as activity recognition, extract manually designed features from sensor inputs for classification. Such applications face two challenges. On one hand, on-device sensor measurements are noisy. For many mobile applications, it is hard to find a distribution that exactly describes the noise in practice. Unfortunately, calculating target quantities based on physical system and noise models is only as accurate as the noise assumptions. Similarly, in classification applications, although manually designed features have proven to be effective, it is not always straightforward to find the most robust features to accommodate diverse sensor noise patterns and user behaviors. To this end, we propose DeepSense, a deep learning framework that directly addresses the aforementioned noise and feature customization challenges in a unified manner. DeepSense integrates convolutional and recurrent neural networks to exploit local interactions among similar mobile sensors, merge local interactions of different sensory modalities into global interactions, and extract temporal relationships to model signal dynamics. DeepSense thus provides a general signal estimation and classification framework that accommodates a wide range of applications. We demonstrate the effectiveness of DeepSense using three representative and challenging tasks: car tracking with motion sensors, heterogeneous human activity recognition, and user identification with biometric motion analysis. DeepSense significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art methods for all three tasks. In addition, DeepSense is feasible to implement on smartphones due to its moderate energy consumption and low latency, Comment: Published in WWW2017. Code available on https://github.com/yscacaca/DeepSense

Cloud applications today deliver an increasingly larger portion of the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) services. To address the scale, growth, and reliability of cloud applications, self-aware management and scheduling are becoming commonplace. How are they used in practice? In this chapter, we propose a conceptual framework for analyzing state-of-the-art self-awareness approaches used in the context of cloud applications. We map important applications corresponding to popular and emerging application domains to this conceptual framework, and compare the practical characteristics, benefits, and drawbacks of self-awareness approaches. Last, we propose a roadmap for addressing open challenges in self-aware cloud and datacenter applications., Comment: Overall: 40 pages, 1 figure, 135 references. Note: This is an extended survey. A much shorter, revised version of this material will be available in print, as part of a Springer book on "Self-Aware Computing". The book is due to appear in 2017

Extracting entities and relations for types of interest from text is important for understanding massive text corpora. Traditionally, systems of entity relation extraction have relied on human-annotated corpora for training and adopted an incremental pipeline. Such systems require additional human expertise to be ported to a new domain, and are vulnerable to errors cascading down the pipeline. In this paper, we investigate joint extraction of typed entities and relations with labeled data heuristically obtained from knowledge bases (i.e., distant supervision). As our algorithm for type labeling via distant supervision is context-agnostic, noisy training data poses unique challenges for the task. We propose a novel domain-independent framework, called CoType, that runs a data-driven text segmentation algorithm to extract entity mentions, and jointly embeds entity mentions, relation mentions, text features and type labels into two low-dimensional spaces (for entity and relation mentions respectively), where, in each space, objects whose types are close will also have similar representations. CoType, then using these learned embeddings, estimates the types of test (unlinkable) mentions. We formulate a joint optimization problem to learn embeddings from text corpora and knowledge bases, adopting a novel partial-label loss function for noisy labeled data and introducing an object "translation" function to capture the cross-constraints of entities and relations on each other. Experiments on three public datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of CoType across different domains (e.g., news, biomedical), with an average of 25% improvement in F1 score compared to the next best method., Comment: WWW 2017

We explore the resiliency and robustness of systems while viewing them as complex, multi-genre networks. The term "complex, multi-genre networks" refers to networks that combine several distinct genres - networks of physical resources, communication networks, information networks, and social and cognitive networks. We show that this perspective is fruitful and adds to our understanding of fundamental challenges and tradeoffs in robustness and resiliency, as well as potential solutions to the challenges. Study of systems as multi-genre networks is relatively uncommon; instead, it is customary in research and engineering literature to focus on a view of a network comprised of homogeneous elements, (e.g., a network of communication devices, or a network of social beings). Yet, most if not all real-world networks are multi-genre - it is hard to find any real system of a significant complexity that does not include a combination of interconnected physical elements, communication devices and channels, data collections, and human users forming an integrated, inter-dependent whole. Most approaches to improving resiliency and robustness involve compromises, and the key challenge is to find a favorable compromise. Such compromises involve reducing or managing the complexity of the network: coupling, rigidity and dependency. We discuss several of these compromises, e.g., performance vs resiliency; resiliency to one type of disruption vs resiliency to another disruption type; and complexity vs resiliency., Comment: A version of this paper appeared as a book chapter in Adaptive, Dynamic, and Resilient Systems published by Springer

This paper complements the large body of social sensing literature by developing means for augmenting sensing data with inference results that "fill-in" missing pieces. It specifically explores the synergy between (i) inference techniques used for filling-in missing pieces and (ii) source selection techniques used to determine which pieces to retrieve in order to improve inference results. We focus on prediction in disaster scenarios, where disruptive trend changes occur. We first discuss our previous conference study that compared a set of prediction heuristics and developed a hybrid prediction algorithm. We then enhance the prediction scheme by considering algorithms for sensor selection that improve inference quality. Our proposed source selection and extrapolation algorithms are tested using data collected during the New York City crisis in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy in November 2012. The evaluation results show that consistently good predictions are achieved. The work is notable for addressing the bi-modal nature of damage propagation in complex systems subjected to stress, where periods of calm are interspersed with periods of severe change. It is novel in offering a new solution to the problem that jointly leverages source selection and extrapolation components thereby improving the results., Comment: 24 pages, Technical Report, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign