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Most developed countries face the need for significant policy changes to balance their budgets over the long run. Yet there is significant disagreement in the literature concerning the identification and impact of successful fiscal consolidations. In this paper, we explore the impact that differing assumptions and methodologies have on conclusions, and derive bounds across specifications that can be used by policymakers in designing their own reforms. Using cyclically adjusted panel data for select OECD countries from 1970-2007, we explore how the compositions of successful and unsuccessful consolidations differ for varying definitions of success. While conclusions about the growth impact of reforms vary depending on methodology, we find that there is much less disagreement concerning composition. Specifically, we find strong evidence that expenditure cuts outweigh revenue increases in successful consolidations. We also find evidence that the type of the spending cuts is an important determinant of success, as is the type of tax increases. We use these results as a guide, and discuss specific proposals for reducing the United States' deficit that draw on the lessons from past consolidations., I. Introduction Over the past several decades many developed countries have undertaken fiscal adjustments in attempts to reduce high debt levels. These countries' restructurings have encountered varying degrees of success [...]

Distributional analysis is an important feature in discussions of fiscal policy changes. While changes in taxes and spending are typically subject to distributional scoring, the distributional costs of changes in net debt are generally ignored. This paper proposes a measure of the distributional burden of servicing the debt. Our primary measure constructs the real annual cost of servicing the debt for households at various levels of income. The distributional burden of the debt depends critically on the level of interest rates and the manner in which the debt service is financed. Using alternative assumptions about financing, we assess the distributional burden of the current level of government debt and the burden of future debt projected to accumulate under current law, current policy, and the Administration's budget., I) Introduction Since 2001, a spate of large annual deficits has swollen the nation's debt to the highest levels as a share of GDP since World War II. The future [...]