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Organisms that locomote by propagating waves of body bending can maintain performance across heterogeneous environments by modifying their gait frequency $\omega$ or wavenumber $k$. We identify a unifying relationship between these parameters for overdamped undulatory swimmers (including nematodes, spermatozoa, and mm-scale fish) moving in diverse environmental rheologies, in the form of an active `dispersion relation' $\omega\propto k^{\pm2}$. A model treating the organisms as actively driven viscoelastic beams reproduces the experimentally observed scaling. The relative strength of rate-dependent dissipation in the body and the environment determines whether $k^2$ or $k^{-2}$ scaling is observed. The existence of these scaling regimes reflects the $k$ and $\omega$ dependence of the various underlying force terms and how their relative importance changes with the external environment and the neuronally commanded gait.

Italy has been one of the first countries timewise strongly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The adoption of social distancing and heavy lockdown measures is posing a heavy burden on the population and the economy. The timing of the measures has crucial policy-making implications. Using publicly available data for the pandemic progression in Italy, we quantitatively assess the effect of the intervention time on the pandemic expansion, with a methodology that combines a generalized susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model together with statistical learning methods. The modeling shows that the lockdown has strongly deviated the pandemic trajectory in Italy. However, the difference between the forecasts and real data up to 20 April 2020 can be explained only by the existence of a time lag between the actual issuance date and the full effect of the measures. To understand the relative importance of intervention with respect to other factors, a thorough uncertainty quantification of the model predictions is performed. Global sensitivity indices show that the the time of intervention is 4 times more relevant than quarantine, and eight times more important than intrinsic features of the pandemic such as protection and infection rates. The relevance of their interactions is also quantified and studied.

Computer experiments are becoming increasingly important in scientific investigations. In the presence of uncertainty, analysts employ probabilistic sensitivity methods to identify the key-drivers of change in the quantities of interest. Simulation complexity, large dimensionality and long running times may force analysts to make statistical inference at small sample sizes. Methods designed to estimate probabilistic sensitivity measures at relatively low computational costs are attracting increasing interest. We propose a fully Bayesian approach to the estimation of probabilistic sensitivity measures based on a one-sample design. We discuss, first, new estimators based on placing piecewise constant priors on the conditional distributions of the output given each input, by partitioning the input space. We then present two alternatives, based on Bayesian non-parametric density estimation, which bypass the need for predefined partitions. In all cases, the Bayesian paradigm guarantees the quantification of uncertainty in the estimation process through the posterior distribution over the sensitivity measures, without requiring additional simulator evaluations. The performance of the proposed methods is compared to that of traditional point estimators in a series of numerical experiments comprising synthetic but challenging simulators, as well as a realistic application. $\textit{An Updated Version of the Manuscript is Forthcoming in Statistics and Computing.}$, Comment: An Updated Version of the Manuscript is Forthcoming in Statistics and Computing