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It is shown that considering a fixed increment of a given magnitude at a fault is equivalent to factoring the mechanical moment at the fault as done in structural engineering with the applied loads, by the most currently used structural engineering standards (e.g. Eurocodes). A special safety factor is introduced and related to the partial factor acting on the mechanical moment representing the fault. A comparison is then made between the hazard maps obtained for Italy with the Neo Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) technique, using two approaches for the definition of the seismic sources considered for the computation of the synthetic seismograms. The first one is based on the magnitude of the events listed in the earthquake catalogue, and located within the active seismogenic zones. This is the standard approach, used in most of the NDSHA computations performed up to now. It is adequate for countries, like Italy, where the catalogue can be reasonably considered complete for events of M=5 and above. When the catalogue completeness is barely adequate, another approach can be adopted for the definition of the earthquake sources. It uses the seismogenic nodes identified by means of pattern recognition techniques applied to morphostructural seismic zonation (MSZ), and increases the reference magnitude by a constant variation tuned thanks to the safety factor. The two approaches have been compared for Italy using the safety factor 2.0: they mostly produce comparable hazard maps. As the two sets are fully independent and the catalogue is very long, this implies a validation of the seismogenic nodes method and a tuning of the safety factor at about 2. Notable exception is seen in the Central Alps, where nodes tend to overestimate the "observed" hazard, and in southeastern Sicily, where the nodes underestimation is only apparent and can be negligible within experimental errors., Comment: 18 pages, 6 figures

For historical buildings and monuments, i.e. when considering time intervals of about a million year (we do not want to loose cultural heritage), the applicability of standard estimates of seismic hazard is really questionable. A viable alternative is represented by the use of the scenario earthquakes, characterized at least in terms of magnitude, distance and faulting style, and by the treatment of complex source processes. Scenario-based seismic hazard maps are purely based on geophysical and seismotectonic features of a region and take into account the occurrence frequency of earthquakes only for their classification into exceptional (catastrophic), rare (disastrous), sporadic (very strong), occasional (strong) and frequent. Therefore they may provide an upper bound for the ground motion levels to be expected for most regions of the world, more appropriate than probabilities of exceedance in view of the long time scales required for the protection of historical buildings. The neo-deterministic approach naturally supplies realistic time series of ground motion, which represent also reliable estimates of ground displacement readily applicable to seismic isolation techniques, useful to preserve historical monuments and relevant man made structures. This methodology has been successfully applied to many urban areas worldwide for the purpose of seismic microzoning, to strategic buildings, lifelines and cultural heritage sites; we will discuss its application to the cities of Rome and Florence.

In this paper, a new seismic Performance Based Design (PBD) process based on a deterministic definition of the seismic input is presented. The proposed procedure aims to address the following considerations, arisen from the analysis of seismic phenomena, which cannot be taken in account using standard probabilistic seismic input (PSHA): a) any structure at a given location, regardless of its importance, is subject to the same shaking as a result of a given earthquake, b) it is impossible to determine when a future earthquake of a given intensity/magnitude will occur, c) insufficient data are available to develop reliable statistics with regards to earthquakes. On the basis of these considerations, the seismic input at a given site - determined on the basis of the seismic history, the seismogenic zones and the seismogenic nodes - is defined using the Neo Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA). Two different analysis are carried out at different levels of detail. The first one (RSA) provides the Maximum Deterministic Seismic Input as a response spectra at the bedrock (MDSIBD), similarly to what is proposed by the codes. The second one (SSA) takes the site effects into account, providing a site specific seismic input (MDSISS). A SSA provides realistic site specific seismograms that could be used to run time history analysis even where no registrations are available. Reviewing the standard PBD procedure, MDSISS is always associated with the worst structural performance acceptable for a building, called Target Performance Level (TPL). In this way, the importance of the structure (risk category) is taken into account by changing the structural performance level to check rather than to change the seismic input., Comment: 11 pages, 12 figures, to be published in the XVI ANIDIS Conference proceedings (13-17 September 2015, L'Aquila, Italy)

A web application prototype is described, aimed at the generation of synthetic seismograms for user-defined earthquake models. The web application graphical user interface hides the complexity of the underlying computational engine, which is the outcome of the continuous evolution of sophisticated computer codes, some of which saw the light back in the middle '80s. With the web application, even the non-experts can produce ground shaking scenarios at the local or regional scale in very short times, depending on the complexity of the adopted source and medium models, without the need of a deep knowledge of the physics of the earthquake phenomenon. Actually, it may even allow neophytes to get some basic education in the field of seismology and seismic engineering, due to the simplified intuitive experimental approach to the matter. One of the most powerful features made available to the users is indeed the capability of executing quick parametric tests in near real-time, to explore the relations between each model's parameter and the resulting ground motion scenario. The synthetic seismograms generated through the web application can be used by civil engineers for the design of new seismo-resistant structures, or to analyse the performance of the existing ones under seismic load., Comment: 23 pages, 13 figures