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Households are currently expecting inflation to run high in the short run but to remain muted over the more distant future. Given this divergence, what role do short-run and long-run household inflation expectations play in determining what workers expect for future wages? Data show that wage inflation is sensitive to movements in household short-run inflation expectations but not to those over longer horizons. This points to an upside risk for inflation, as workers negotiate higher wages that businesses could pass on to consumers by raising prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Household surveys indicate that consumers expect higher inflation this year than in recent years, as the U.S. economy rebounds from the deep recession. This has coincided with a surge in commodity prices, as strong demand for goods like gas, food, and construction materials is catching producers with low supplies. Evidence suggests that households respond to commodity price increases by raising their expectations of future inflation. However, since surges in commodity prices are transitory, their effects on inflation expectations--particularly long-term expectations--are modest and short-lived. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Household surveys indicate that consumers expect higher inflation this year than in recent years, as the U.S. economy rebounds from the deep recession. This has coincided with a surge in commodity prices, as strong demand for goods like gas, food, and construction materials is catching producers with low supplies. Evidence suggests that households respond to commodity price increases by raising their expectations of future inflation. However, since surges in commodity prices are transitory, their effects on inflation expectations--particularly long-term expectations--are modest and short-lived. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Disagreement among economic forecasters about the outlook for inflation in both the United States and the euro area has increased since the onset of the pandemic. The nature of these forecast differences can provide insights into the inflation risks that lie ahead. Many forecasters initially expected substantially lower inflation over the next year but subsequently raised their expectations as economic activity began to improve. In contrast, changes in expectations and disagreement about longer-term inflation have been relatively subdued and suggest a balanced likelihood between higher and lower inflation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The economic benefits of sharing a currency like the euro continue to be debated. In theory, countries that use the same currency face lower trade costs and exchange rate risk and are able to compare prices across borders more easily. These advantages should help increase trade among the economies involved. New estimates suggest that this has been the case in Europe, though perhaps to a lesser degree than previously thought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After peaking in 2006, the median U.S. house price fell about 30%, finally hitting bottom in late 2011. Since then, house prices have rebounded strongly and are nearly back to the pre-recession peak. However, conditions in the latest boom appear far less precarious than those in the previous episode. The current run-up exhibits a less-pronounced increase in the house price-to-rent ratio and an outright decline in the household mortgage debt-to-income ratio—a pattern that is not suggestive of a credit-fueled bubble. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new volume, Prospects for Asia and the Global Economy,summarizes the 2013 Asia Economic Policy Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco's Center for Pacific Basin Studies. The conference focused on challenges faced by policymakers in advanced and emerging economies as they continue to recover from the recent global financial crisis.Issues discussed included the monetary policy spillovers from advanced economies to emerging markets, the costs and benefits of foreign reserve accumulation, and the desirability of macroprudential interventions, restrictions on cross-border capital flows, and financial regulatory reforms to reduce the likelihood of future crises [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the monetary policy changes implemented by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The authors say that the dollar exchange rate was impacted by the unconventional monetary policy enacted by the Federal Reserve particularly the downward direction of the value of the dollar. On the unconventional monetary policy's influence on net exports, they explain that it is hard to tell as it could have been obscured by other factors aside from a weaker U.S. dollar.

Information about the papers discussed at the Asia Economic Policy Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Center for Pacific Basin Studies held in San Francisco, California from November 29-30, 2011 is presented. It states that the conference discussed the role of Asia in the post-crisis global economy. Federal Reserve Board of Governors Vice Chair Janet Yellen noted that emerging Asia's growth strengthened the global economy in the wake of the financial crisis.

The article discusses the effects of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board's large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs), which started in end-2008. It says that prices of commodities, including food, energy, and metals, have been increasing at double-digit rates, which the critics argued was the result of the Fed's purchases of long-term assets. Yet, daily data show that the Fed's announcements of LSAPs tended to lessen commodity prices despite the decline in long-term interest rates and dollar value.

The article presents an analysis regarding the household credit and personal savings of consumers in the U.S. It examines the combination of factors that lead to global financial crisis such as the low interest rates and the proliferation of exotic mortgage products. According to a simple empirical model, the changes in the availability of credit to households can explain 90% of the variance of the saving rate since the mid-1960s and the recent uptrend.

Information about several topics discussed at the Asia Economic Policy Conference, sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (FRBSF), on the impact of the economic crisis in Asia and how policymakers respond to the situation is presented. It mentions that the nations of the region have recovered more quickly than most industrial and emerging markets. It states that the enactment of strong economic fundamentals and reforms has caused the quick recovery.

The article provides updates on the global household purchase, house prices and consumption from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (FRBSF) in the U.S. It states that household purchases in the U.S. had increased dramatically prior to 2007, however, the rapid expansion on the use of borrowed money in many industrial nations have contributed to the global financial crisis. It notes that household purchases in the country have dropped by about 30 percent since December 2007.

Described are several technologies for intra-organizational coordination that can enhance the effectiveness of supply chains. The Semantic Web and radio-frequency identification can greatly improve supply chains. The benefits of aggregating data along supply chains and supply chain decision databases are also described. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evaluates the physical, electronic and hybrid retail companies. History of retail selling; Discussion on a model of a retail system; Evaluation of retail systems based on customer experiences in the purchasing process.

Describes the role of information technology in the development, functions and success of virtual corporations. Activities included in the transformation process of companies; Importance of automation technology to the achievement of response times; How to integrate and coordinate inter-organizational activities along supply chains.

Focuses on several factors that contribute to the successful management of virtual corporations. Discussion on the importance of keeping pace with changing business environment; Identification of factors which can develop limitations to the success of virtual corporations; Definition of a virtual corporation; Insight into the contributing factors to the success of these corporations.

Describes main factors affecting technological forecasting and/or the choice of forecasting method. Popular methods of technological forecasting; Trend analysis; Prerequisites for use of specific technological forecasting methods; Situations that could affect the accuracy of the forecast.

Discusses the programmable automation of manufacturing systems. Computer numerical control (CNC) technology; Advantages of cellular manufacturing facilities; Factors indicating the need for CNC manufacturing systems; Cost-benefit analysis of CNC.

Evaluates the impact of solicitations for computer time-sharing services on sales revenue. Impact on revenue fluctuations; Role of industrial marketing managers; Focus on effective allocation of solicitation time of sales representatives.

Focuses on optimal decisions under uncertainty in zero base budgeting. Illustrative examples of budgeting and planning; Evaluation of decision packages in an organization of multi-level hierarchical management; Net income resulting from the decision packages.

Explores the equitable allocation of a limited product supply to dealers. Description of territories of the market; Source of the distribution network; Criteria for allocation.

Presents a case study on the improvement of job satisfaction in a hospital Dietary Department. Reorganization of the Dietary Department; Development of an effective schedule that balanced workload; Subsystems of the Dietary Department.

Presents an algorithm for determining the optimal set of decision packages in zero-based budgeting. Utilization of multistage optimization procedure; Evaluation of decision packages in an organization composed of multi-level hierarchial management; Types of decision packages.

The article focuses on the state of household leverage in the U.S. It indicates the need of households to undergo a long period of deleveraging to gain a sustainable level of debt relative to income which can be achieved through reducing debt and increasing saving. It explores the possible impact of the deleveraging of the household sector on the growth rate of consumption in the country.

Information about several topics discussed at the 2008 Annual Pacific Basin conference held in San Francisco, California from September 19 to 20, 2008 is presented. Topics include the trade and growth in Asia, global current account imbalances and investment, international and global investment patterns.

The article provides information on the developments surrounding the 2007 Annual Pacific Basin Conference on June 8-9, 2007 in San Francisco, California. The conference brought together reports on a variety of international topics related to international financial issues. Topics includes international pricing behavior and exchange rates, and foreign reserve management.

The article presents a research that analyzes the trends in global prices of commercial products and services. The study was conducted through Worldwide Cost of Living Survey's actual price data collection and uses regression analysis to examines price dispersion. The study reveals that global price convergence for the past 15 years shows important variation which is depicted in a U shaped pattern that coincides with oil prices and transportation costs fluctuations.

The article presents a reprint of the article "2006 Annual Pacific Basin Conference: Summary," which appeared in the February 9, 2007 issue of the "Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (FRBSF) Economic Letter." The article offers a summary of the papers presented at the annual conference of the Pacific Basin. Some of the topics discussed include the current account deficit in the U.S., the interest rate parity puzzle and the monetary integration in East Asia.

Information about several papers discussed at the annual Pacific Basin Conference held at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco on June 16-17, 2006 is presented. The conference discusses several international topics including the determining factors of the U.S. current account shortage, the interest rate parity puzzle, monetary integration in East Asia and other developments in Asia. Moreover, the conference was sponsored by the Bank's Center for Pacific Basin Studies.

The article presents a summary to the papers presented at the conference on "External Imbalances and Adjustment in the Pacific Basin" held on September 22-23, 2005 in San Francisco, California. Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff use in their research a small general equilibrium model to estimate the magnitude of dollar depreciation necessary to eliminate the U.S. current account deficit. Another research argued that recent dollar depreciations have generated capital gains and reduced the U.S. net debt position.

The article presents a summary of papers presented at the symposium "Revived Bretton Woods System: A New Paradigm for Asian Development?" held at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco on February 4, 2005, under the joint sponsorship of the Bank's Center for Pacific Basin Studies and the University of California at Berkeley, California's Clausen Center for International Economics. The views on the current international exchange rate system, the sustainability of global trade imbalances, and the implications for development by emerging markets, such as China were presented in the symposium by the participating executives.

Examines how policymakers might choose between alternative courses of action when confronted with a possible asset price bubble in the United States. Responses of monetary policy to movements in an asset price; Decision tree for choosing between the Standard and Bubble Policies; Macroeconomic consequences of asset price movements.

Today's industrial plants represent investments of millions, or even billions of dollars. To gain reasonable return on that investment, equipment and processes have to operate efficiently. This article discusses filtration, a critical step in protecting the plant's equipment, minimizing maintenance time and costs, and reducing product defects. It provides information about the physical process of filtration and cites some of the useful filtration technologies. The author relates the importance of designing a filtration system that best suits an individual facility's needs and provides dependable and cost-effective performance over the lifetime of the system.

Presents a summary of the papers presented at the conference on "Emerging Markets and Macroeconomic Volatility: Lessons From a Decade of Financial Debacles" held at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco on June 4-5, 2004. Series of major macroeconomic crises in emerging market economies; Analysis of the causes and consequences of these volatile events; Question on how the U.S. government policies can address the problems.

Examines the financial crises in emerging markets. Evaluation of long-term capital management; Management of crises and corporate failures; Information from the International Monetary Fund, the bank for International Settlements.

Focuses on the capital control and exchange rate stability in developing countries. Effects of restrictions of international flow of capital in purchasing and selling of foreign assets; Consideration of large depression as a currency crisis; Evidence of greater exchange rate stability in countries without capital control.

Reviews papers that provide analytical perspectives and new empirical evidence on the causes of currency crises in emerging markets as well as appropriate policy responses. Determinants and propagation of financial crises; Capital flows and reversals; Institutional factors and financial structure; Policy responses to crises.

Analyzes the theoretical and policy issues associated with international capital flows. Roles of domestic and external factors in driving capital flows; Characteristics of exchange rate crises; Effects of capital inflows.

Presents a November 3, 1995 weekly essay which analyzes the question `Is Pegging the Exchange Rate a Cure for Inflation? East Asian Experiences'. East Asian dollar exchange rates; Appreciation versus inflation; Asians low inflation; Conclusion.

Presents the highlights of the `Conference on Monetary Policy in a Changing Financial Environment' on March 3 and 4, 1995. Use of sluggish price adjustment and forward-looking expectations to measure the effects of monetary policy; Effect of huge increase in federal debt on the responsiveness of real GDP to interest rate changes; Alternative indicators; Exchange rate targeting; Financial and trade arrangements.

Discusses the role of government intervention in the export-led economic growth of East Asian economies. Channels through which policies favoring greater openness and international trade can lead to better growth performance; Advantages and drawbacks of industrial policies targeting certain favored sectors; Lessons for other countries.

Claims that only a professional news reporter can deliver the whole news coverage. Efforts made by CNN to cover the tsunami news event in 2004; News anchors sent to cover the event, including Diane Sawyer from ABC; Benefits offered by technology in the delivery of news.

The article reflects on the role of television in the news broadcasting of current events in the U.S. It applauds television staff and technicians for their dedication to deliver news. It argues that television coverage has helped create cooperation among citizens in times of lost especially during the September 11, 2001 terrorist attack. It contends that the negative memories of the terrorist attack will continue to affect citizens.

The article reflects on making unedited, televised news available online and on cellular telephones. The author believes that there are difficulties in being an executive producer of the evening newscast. Weblogs revolutionized the broadcasting of news. There are drawbacks of being one's own reporter, editor and publisher.

The article reports on the effect of culture wars on news business. At this nasty time in our history known as the culture wars, the news business has become a favorite target because it is the vehicle transmitting everything everyone dislikes, giving rise to panels, forums, interchanges, scholarly discussions and learned dissertations, primarily devoted to the principle that the people in news are wrong and they are right, that the news people must do something to improve their general reputation.

Comments on the role of television courtroom judges in the U.S. Brief background on television jurisprudence; Judges who have their own television courtrooms; Cases handled by the television judges.

Relates the radio dramatization of H. G. Wells' novel "The War of the Worlds" on CBS radio on October 30, 1938 that enraged the U.S. public. Decision of Orson Welles, producer and star of a Sunday night dramatic series on CBS radio, to rewrote the production as a series of news bulletins; Effect of the radio dramatization on students of psychology and sociology; Involvement in a dramatic broadcast on television.

Traces the connection of television broadcasting with the birth of red and blue states in the U.S. Political parties representing the red and blue states; Application of the terms red and blue states in the U.S. mass media; Differences between the red states and the blue states.