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Introduced in the United Kingdom in 2012, Universal Credit (UC) is a welfare benefit that replaces six working-age 'legacy' benefits for out-of-work and low-income people. Designed with the aim of simplifying benefits and incentivising paid work, UC represents a deepening of conditionality in the British welfare state. Considering these developments, this paper quantitatively investigates the effect of UC on recipients' life satisfaction. Data from the United Kingdom Household Longitudinal Study is analysed, primarily using a fixed-effects regression approach. Results reveal a significantly negative effect of UC recipience on life satisfaction. Robustness checks and alternative model specifications, including difference-in-differences and inverse probability weighting, confirm this finding. Additionally, mediation models give credence to the idea that UC also negatively affects life satisfaction indirectly by increasing psychological distress. Heterogeneity tests indicate that UC has a less negative effect on single parents' life satisfaction compared to non-parents. Meanwhile, UC has a significantly more negative effect on the life satisfaction of people not in paid work (for reasons other than unemployment) than those in paid work. Discussion focuses on the potential effect of welfare conditionality specifically, and implications for future research and policy are explored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Systematic differences in the attitudes of men and women towards risk is well established. In this paper, we investigate the joint role of two prominent psychological characteristics in explaining this difference. Our starting point is that risk assessments can be thought of, in general terms, to combine beliefs about the probability of negative outcomes occurring with a subjective valuation of how painful that negative outcome would be. Exploiting large‐scale panel data from the United Kingdom, we find that gender differences in financial optimism and financial loss aversion – the stronger psychological response to monetary losses than monetary gains – explain a substantial proportion of the parallel gender difference in willingness to take risks. This result prevails even after controlling for the Big Five personality traits, suggesting that the prominent psychological characteristics capture different aspects of behaviour than the Big Five. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accessible summary: What is known on the subject?: Mental healthcare requires acceptance of suicide and flexible attitudes especially in relation to caring for people who have suicidal thoughts or who have attempted suicide. Nurse education programmes for student nurses can shape positively the attitudes of individual participants, yet limited research exists on what nursing students' attitudes currently are towards people who are suicidal. What this paper adds to existing knowledge?: This paper adds to the developing international comparative work that is providing a greater understanding of cultural perceptions of suicide amongst students. This paper along with existing literature highlights a potential relationship between certain religious belief systems and their potential to be protective against suicide. At the same time, such religious belief is more likely to be associated with more judgmental attitude towards suicidal behaviour. This paper using a validated research tool, devised by a research psychologist, scored for the first time, individual student attitudes towards caring for people that are suicidal, whilst establishing the overall differences between the two countries from which the data are collected. What are the implications for practice?: This paper offers potential explanations for differences in nursing students' attitudes between the UK and Turkey. Disparities under discussion include gender, type of education, culture and religion. This is an important discussion in the consideration of nurse education worldwide. It is recognized that students may come from a variety of different backgrounds, with varying personal and social attitudes to begin with; yet, there exists the potential to positively influence overall attitudes towards service users whilst learners are still within a training programme, consisting of education and practice experiences. The merits of a specialist mental health nurse training programme and its potential to impact more favourably on students attitudes deserve more attention and research. Abstract: Introduction: Suicide is a major public health issue internationally, and the impact of positive or negative attitudes amongst the mental health professional workforce warrants scrutiny. The study aimed to examine English and Turkish nursing students' attitudes towards people with suicidal behaviour. Method: This cross‐cultural study reports on attitudes of 240 nursing students towards suicide in Turkey and 82 nursing students in the UK. A reliable and valid 24 item “Attitudes towards Suicide Scale” and “Social Reactions to Suicidal Persons Scale” were used to measure attitudes. Results: The UK nursing students were found to display more accepting attitudes to suicide, and scored higher on acceptability of suicide, seeing suicide as a solution and open reporting and discussion of suicide subscales than their Turkish counterparts. Turkish nursing students scored higher on punishment after death and hiding suicidal behaviour subscales than the UK students. Turkish nursing students scored significantly higher on deterring subscale of reactions to a suicidal peer scale than the UK nursing students. Implications for practice: It is vital for nurse students to develop positive acceptance of suicide through education, reflection and clinical supervision to be more therapeutic towards suicidal patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

States started to be member of economic integrations after the Second World War to increase the efficiency of economic cooperation. Theoretically, economic integration models prioritize interests of members and especially are expected to contribute the export of that countries. Therefore, this study examines export convergence and enriches the literature that usually models income convergence. The main target of this study to reveal whether export convergence model supports the Britain Exit (BREXIT) decision in 2016. In this context, the paper analyzes European Union (EU) - 15 before and after EU agreement and EU-25 (the most extensive enlargement of EU in 2004) countries in terms of export convergence. According to results, export of United Kingdom (UK) had convergence in EU-15 countries after EU agreement. However, the 2004 enlargement of EU led to suppress the export convergence of UK. In conclusion, the export convergence model supports BREXIT decision and reveals the probability of such processes in the EU [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A multiple state model describes the transitions of the disability risk among the states of active, inactive and dead. Ideally, estimations of transition probabilities and transition intensities rely on longitudinal data; however, most of the national surveys of disability are based on cross-sectional data measuring the disabled status of an individual at one point in time. This paper aims to propose a generic method of the estimation of the expected transition probabilities when the model allows recovery from disability using the UK cross-sectional data. The disability prevalence rates are modelled by taking into consideration the effect of age and time. Under some plausible assumptions concerning the death rates among inactive and active people, the estimated prevalence rates of disability are used to decompose survival probabilities in each state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: The prevalence of hepatitis is high in emergency department (ED) attendees in the United Kingdom, with a prevalence of up to 2% for hepatitis B (HBV) HBsAg, and 2.9% for hepatitis C (HCV) RNA. The aim of this paper is to perform an economic evaluation of opt-out ED-based HCV and HBV testing.Methods: A Markov model was developed to analyze the cost-effectiveness of opt-out HCV and HBV testing in EDs in the UK. The model used data from UK studies of ED testing to parameterize the HCV and HBV prevalence (1.4% HCV RNA, 0.84% HBsAg), test costs, and intervention effects (contact rates and linkage to care). For HCV, we used an antibody test cost of £3.64 and RNA test cost of £68.38, and assumed direct-acting antiviral treatment costs of £10 000. For HBV, we used a combined HBsAg and confirmatory test cost of £5.79. We also modeled the minimum prevalence of HCV (RNA-positive) and HBV (HBsAg) required to make ED testing cost-effective at a £20 000 willingness to pay per quality-adjusted life-year threshold.Results: In the base case, ED testing was highly cost-effective, with HCV and HBV testing costing £8019 and £9858 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, respectively. HCV and HBV ED testing remained cost-effective at 0.25% HCV RNA or HBsAg prevalence or higher.Conclusions: Emergency department testing for HCV and HBV is highly likely to be cost-effective in many areas across the UK depending on their prevalence. Ongoing studies will help evaluate ED testing across different regions to inform testing guidelines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a novel agent-based, stochastic model, which uses game-theoretic principles to simulate Contract for Difference (CfD) auctions. The framework has use cases and implications for policymakers and renewable generators alike, and can be used by developers to prepare bidding strategy and for policymakers to empirically test auction design. The model is demonstrated through replication of the offshore wind CfD Allocation Round 3 (AR3) pot, and utilises high-level cost modelling distribution data to estimate bid prices for the competing projects. The model produces a distribution of most likely results which better categorises uncertainty, and through comparison of AR3 and simulation results, demonstrates how outcomes can be predicted with reasonable confidence by developers. Analysis show that the transmission network and grid connection charges are a significant barrier for projects in some geographical regions to be awarded a CfD contract, potentially hindering renewable deployment in those areas. Moreover, this paper demonstrates how players can use probability theory to select an optimum bidding strategy which maximises expected profit while factoring the uncertainty inherent in CfD auctions. Results show that a 1200 MW wind farm development can increase potential profits by £135 million over the CfD contract length in exchange for a 25 p.p. chance reduction in being awarded a subsidy. • A novel simulation approach is introduced for analysing the UK's CfD auction • We show how players can attempt to optimise their bid based on expected profits • We demonstrate how uncertainty in auctions can be characterised by developers • Transmission charges act as a barrier for offshore wind projects in some regions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the possibility that life-long learning promotes intergenerational class mobility. The following two research questions are asked. Is it the case that further education provides individuals coming from less advantaged origins with a second chance to improve on their educational attainment? Is it the case that the returns to further qualifications, in terms of chances of upward class career mobility, are greater for children from less advantaged backgrounds than for children from more advantaged backgrounds? The analyses – that are based on the complete educational and class histories of men and women in a British birth cohort – mainly produce negative findings. Children coming from managerial and professional backgrounds seem to benefit most from further education. More specifically, further education appears to be an effective means of career advancement for individuals of managerial and professional origins who start out in their working lives in relatively low-level class positions. Via further education they can increase or update their qualifications, and in turn enhance their chances of being counter-mobile back to their class of origin. Overall, based on the findings of this paper, we can conclude that qualifications attained through life-long learning primarily serve to maintain, rather than to narrow, inequalities attached to social origins in Britain. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background: Within the European Union (EU), substantial efforts are being made to achieve economic and social cohesion, and the reduction of health inequalities between EU regions is integral to this process. This paper is the first to examine how self-reported conditions and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) vary spatially between and within countries. Methods: Using 2014 European Social Survey (ESS) data from 20 countries, this paper examines how regional inequalities in self-reported conditions and NCDs vary for men and women in 174 regions (levels 1 and 2 Nomenclature of Statistical Territorial Units, 'NUTS'). We document absolute and relative inequalities across Europe in the prevalence of eight conditions: general health, overweight/obesity, mental health, heart or circulation problems, high blood pressure, back, neck, muscular or joint pain, diabetes and cancer. Results: There is considerable inequality in self-reported conditions and NCDs between the regions of Europe, with rates highest in the regions of continental Europe, some Scandinavian regions and parts of the UK and lowest around regions bordering the Alps, in Ireland and France. However, for mental health and cancer, rates are highest in regions of Eastern European and lowest in some Nordic regions, Ireland and isolated regions in continental Europe. There are also widespread and consistent absolute and relative regional inequalities in all conditions within countries. These are largest in France, Germany and the UK, and smallest in Denmark, Sweden and Norway. There were higher inequalities amongst women. Conclusion: Using newly available harmonized morbidity data from across Europe, this paper shows that there are considerable regional inequalities within and between European countries in the distribution of self-reported conditions and NCDs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper outlines the evolution of joint probability methods in the design and assessment of sea defence structures in the UK, together with the key drivers for these different methods. It highlights why and how the joint exceedance curve techniques were developed initially from the late 1980s and early 1990s, as well as the reasons for the later development of the Join-Sea software system in the mid-1990s, as well as more recently, the implementation of more robust multivariate statistical approaches. The differences between these techniques are outlined, as well as potential errors accounting for how these different techniques are applied to assess different sea defence response functions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Centile curves and standard scores are common in epidemiological research. However, standardised norms and centile growth curves for language disorder that reflect the entire UK local school population do not exist. Methods: Scores on six language indices assessing receptive and expressive functioning of children were obtained from the SCALES population survey. Monolingual English speaking participants were aged between five and nine years. Children who attended special schools at study intake, or who were learning English as an additional language were excluded. We constructed language norms using the LMS method of standardisation which allows for skewed measurements. We made use of probability weights that were produced from a two-step logistic model. Distributions of estimated standard scores from an intensively assessed sub-population and from the full population were contrasted to demonstrate the role of weights. Results: Non-overlapping centile curves and standardised scores at each age were obtained for the six language indices. The use of weights was essential at retrieving the target distribution of the scores. An online calculator that estimates standardised scores for the measures was constructed and made freely available. Conclusions: The findings highlight the usefulness and flexibility of the LMS method at dealing with the standardisation of linguistic and educational measures that are sufficiently continuous. The paper adds to the existing literature by providing population norms for a number of language tests that were calculated from the same group of individuals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Significant proportions of young people experience body dissatisfaction, which has implications for psychological and physical well‐being. Lesson content and perceived competence may be important variables for the experience of body dissatisfaction, yet these have been underexplored in physical education. The aim of this cross‐sectional study is to identify the relationships between body dissatisfaction and perceptions of competence, and to explore whether body dissatisfaction depends on lesson content. METHODS: A paper‐and‐pencil questionnaire was completed by 446 (210 boys, 236 girls) 13‐ to 14‐year‐old pupils from 37 physical education classes. The questionnaire assessed body dissatisfaction and perceived competence in physical education. Lesson content was also recorded. Twenty‐nine of the classes were engaged in team activities, eg, ball games. Eight classes were engaged in individual activities, eg, fitness. RESULTS: Multilevel analysis identified a significant negative association between body dissatisfaction and perceptions of competence in physical education. Lesson content did not significantly predict variations in body dissatisfaction scores. CONCLUSIONS: Teachers should focus on enhancing pupils' perceptions of competence in physical education to support the development of body satisfaction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: exposure to air pollution has been shown to increase risk of inflammatory processes and risk of cardiovascular mortality. Such exposure may therefore also be a risk factor for cognitive impairment/dementia. Method: a systematic review of the literature was conducted with databases searched using keywords for air pollution, cognitive decline and dementia. All identified abstracts and potentially relevant articles were double read. For those papers meeting the inclusion criteria, summary tables were prepared and papers quality assessed. Results: from 1,551 abstracts identified, 10 articles were retrieved of which two were rejected. Of the eight remaining six reported prevalent cognitive assessment with historical pollution exposure and two incident cognitive decline, also with historical pollution exposure. In general, an association was reported between exposure and poorer prevalent measures of cognitive function. Data were mixed for incident cognitive decline with one study finding an association and the other not. Reports were limited by a lack of detailed reporting, use of proxy measures of pollution exposure and a lack of clarity regarding cognitive testing methodology and analysis. Conclusion: this systematic review highlights that there is some evidence of a potential association between air pollution and subsequent cognitive decline. Further work is clearly required and longitudinal analysis of ongoing cohort studies or new research would add much needed clarity to this area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic conditions have dramatic influences on fertility. This paper evaluates the effect of the 2008 ‘Great Recession’ in the UK on first birth rate, which is the fertility behaviour most susceptible to external economic conditions. The key aim of the study was to assess the effect of the recession on fertility by individual-level characteristics, enabling variation in responses to economic hardship to be observed. Data were from the nationally representative UK Household Longitudinal Study (UK-HLS). Cumulative transition models were used to model the probability of first birth for women between the ages of 17 and 30 in three UK birth cohorts. The effect of the recession was captured using direct measures (local unemployment rates and individual unemployment status) and a pre-/post-comparison, capturing indirect effects. In general, higher birth rates were observed among more disadvantaged women compared with advantaged groups. The effect of the recession was disaggregated by social strata; the overall effect was counter-cyclical although at a slower rate among disadvantaged women. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Longitudinal data sources offer new opportunities for the evaluation of sequential interventions. To adjust for time-dependent confounding in these settings, longitudinal targeted maximum likelihood based estimation (TMLE), a doubly robust method that can be coupled with machine learning, has been proposed. This paper provides a tutorial in applying longitudinal TMLE, in contrast to inverse probability of treatment weighting and g-computation based on iterative conditional expectations. We apply these methods to estimate the causal effect of nutritional interventions on clinical outcomes among critically ill children in a United Kingdom study (Control of Hyperglycemia in Paediatric Intensive Care, 2008-2011). We estimate the probability of a child's being discharged alive from the pediatric intensive care unit by a given day, under a range of static and dynamic feeding regimes. We find that before adjustment, patients who follow the static regime "never feed" are discharged by the end of the fifth day with a probability of 0.88 (95% confidence interval: 0.87, 0.90), while for the patients who follow the regime "feed from day 3," the probability of discharge is 0.64 (95% confidence interval: 0.62, 0.66). After adjustment for time-dependent confounding, most of this difference disappears, and the statistical methods produce similar results. TMLE offers a flexible estimation approach; hence, we provide practical guidance on implementation to encourage its wider use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chain event graphs (CEGs) are a graphical representation of a statistical model derived from event trees. They have previously been applied to cohort studies but not to case-control studies. In this paper, we apply the CEG framework to a Yorkshire, United Kingdom, case-control study of childhood type 1 diabetes (1993-1994) in order to examine 4 exposure variables associated with the mother, 3 of which are fully observed (her school-leaving-age, amniocenteses during pregnancy, and delivery type) and 1 with missing values (her rhesus factor), while incorporating previous type 1 diabetes knowledge. We conclude that the unknown rhesus factor values were likely to be missing not at random and were mainly rhesus-positive. The mother's school-leaving-age and rhesus factor were not associated with the diabetes status of the child, whereas having at least 1 amniocentesis procedure and, to a lesser extent, birth by cesarean delivery were associated; the combination of both procedures further increased the probability of diabetes. This application of CEGs to case-control data allows for the inclusion of missing data and prior knowledge, while investigating associations in the data. Communication of the analysis with the clinical expert is more straightforward than with traditional modeling, and this approach can be applied retrospectively or when assumptions for traditional analyses are not held. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shared Lives (adult placement) is a model of community-based support where an adult who needs support and/or accommodation moves into or regularly visits the home of an approved Shared Lives carer, after they have been matched for compatibility. It is an established but small service which has been used mainly by people with learning disabilities but which has the potential to offer an alternative to traditional services for some older people. However, there is little research on the outcomes for older users of Shared Lives. This paper presents findings from a survey of 150 older people using Shared Lives support across 10 Shared Lives schemes in England, which took place between June 2013 and January 2014. The aim was to identify outcomes for older users of Shared Lives and compare these to outcomes for older users of other social care services. In the absence of an ideal study design involving randomised allocation, statistical matching was used to generate a comparison group from the Adult Social Care Survey from 2011/12, with 121 cases matched to 121 Shared Lives cases. The main outcome measures were Social Care-Related Quality of Life (measured by the ASCOT) and overall quality of life. Findings indicated that Shared Lives can deliver good outcomes for older people, particularly for overall quality of life. In comparison to the matched group of older people using other forms of support, there was some evidence that Shared Lives may deliver better outcomes in some aspects of quality of life. Limitations to the research mean, however, that more work is needed to fully understand the role Shared Lives could play in supporting older people. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective The main aim of this study was to explore any association between colorectal cancer (CRC) and rotating shift work in nurses and midwives. The secondary aim of this study was to identify risk factors for CRC in nurses and midwives who are rotating shift workers. Design Cross-sectional study. Setting Electronic survey of participants from Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom. Subjects A sample of 8,199 male and female nurses and midwives from Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom invited through their registration papers or newsletter advertisement. Main outcome measure Prevalence of CRC in participants who have worked rotating shifts for 1-14 years or ≥15 years compared to participants who have never worked rotating shifts. In addition, risk factors for CRC in the rotating shift work population were analysed in a multivariate logistic regression model in order to obtain odds ratio of CRC. Results No statistically significant difference was found in the prevalence of CRC between those who have never worked rotating shift work, worked 1-14 years and worked 15 or more years. Among rotating shift workers, diabetes was associated with a 123-fold (95% CI 39-392; p<0.001) increased odds of CRC, while Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) was associated with a 190-fold (95%CI 68-526; p<0.001) increased odds of CRC. Screening colonoscopy or sigmoidoscopy for CRC was associated with a 10-fold (95% CI 3-35; p<0.001) increased odds of being diagnosed with CRC. Conclusion No significant association was found between rotating shift work and colorectal cancer in nurses and midwives. In nurses and midwives who are rotating shift workers, diabetes, IBD and CRC screening significantly increased the odds of CRC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives Given the absence of a common passing standard for students at UK medical schools, this paper compares independently set standards for common 'one from five' single-best-answer (multiple-choice) items used in graduation-level applied knowledge examinations and explores potential reasons for any differences. Methods A repeated cross-sectional study was conducted. Participating schools were sent a common set of graduation-level items (55 in 2013-2014; 60 in 2014-2015). Items were selected against a blueprint and subjected to a quality review process. Each school employed its own standard-setting process for the common items. The primary outcome was the passing standard for the common items by each medical school set using the Angoff or Ebel methods. Results Of 31 invited medical schools, 22 participated in 2013-2014 (71%) and 30 (97%) in 2014-2015. Schools used a mean of 49 and 53 common items in 2013-2014 and 2014-2015, respectively, representing around one-third of the items in the examinations in which they were embedded. Data from 19 (61%) and 26 (84%) schools, respectively, met the inclusion criteria for comparison of standards. There were statistically significant differences in the passing standards set by schools in both years (effect sizes ( f2): 0.041 in 2013-2014 and 0.218 in 2014-2015; both p < 0.001). The interquartile range of standards was 5.7 percentage points in 2013-2014 and 6.5 percentage points in 2014-2015. There was a positive correlation between the relative standards set by schools in the 2 years (Pearson's r = 0.57, n = 18, p = 0.014). Time allowed per item, method of standard setting and timing of examination in the curriculum did not have a statistically significant impact on standards. Conclusions Independently set standards for common single-best-answer items used in graduation-level examinations vary across UK medical schools. Further work to examine standard-setting processes in more detail is needed to help explain this variability and develop methods to reduce it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The population of refugees in the UK is expanding and will expand further given the UK Government's response to the European refugee crisis. This paper breaks new ground by undertaking a gender analysis of integration outcomes across a range of areas, namely social networks, language proficiency, health, education, employment and housing, that are highly relevant for social policy. Using the UK's only longitudinal survey on refugees, we conduct secondary data analysis to examine the factors associated with integration outcomes. We find significant gender differences in language, self-reported health, ability to budget for household expenses and access to formal social networks and quality housing, with women generally faring worse than men and some inequalities enduring or intensifying over time. We call for the recording of refugee outcomes in institutional monitoring data to enable inequalities to be identified and addressed. The findings also enable the identification of social policy areas in which a gender sensitive approach might be necessary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: the care of older people with dementia is often complicated by physical comorbidity and polypharmacy, but the extent and patterns of these have not been well described. This paper reports analysis of these factors within a large, cross-sectional primary care data set. Methods: data were extracted for 291,169 people aged 65 years or older registered with 314 general practices in the UK, of whom 10,258 had an electronically recorded dementia diagnosis. Differences in the number and type of 32 physical conditions and the number of repeat prescriptions in those with and without dementia were examined. Age-gender standardised rates were used to calculate odds ratios (ORs) of physical comorbidity and polypharmacy. Results: people with dementia, after controlling for age and sex, had on average more physical conditions than controls (mean number of conditions 2.9 versus 2.4; P < 0.001) and were on more repeat medication (mean number of repeats 5.4 versus 4.2; P < 0.001). Those with dementia were more likely to have 5 or more physical conditions (age-sex standardised OR [sOR] 1.42, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.35-1.50; P < 0.001) and were also more likely to be on 5 or more (sOR 1.46; 95% CI 1.40-1.52; P < 0.001) or 10 or more repeat prescriptions (sOR 2.01; 95% CI 1.90-2.12; P < 0.001). Conclusions: people with dementia have a higher burden of comorbid physical disease and polypharmacy than those without dementia, even after accounting for age and sex differences. Such complex needs require an integrated response from general health professionals and multidisciplinary dementia specialists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims and objectives: The aim of this paper is to determine the influence of do not attempt cardiopulmonary resuscitation (DNACPR) orders and the Universal Form of Treatment Options (‘UFTO’: an alternative approach that contextualizes the resuscitation decision within an overall treatment plan) on nurses' decision making about a deteriorating patient. Methods: An online survey with a developing case scenario across three timeframes was used on 231 nurses from 10 National Health Service Trusts. Nurses were randomised into three groups: DNACPR, the UFTO and no‐form. Statements were pooled into four subcategories: Increasing Monitoring, Escalating Concern, Initiating Treatments and Comfort Measures. Results: Reported decisions were different across the three groups. Nurses in the DNACPR group agreed or strongly agreed to initiate fewer intense nursing interventions than the UFTO and no‐form groups (P < 0.001) overall and across subcategories of Increase Monitoring, Escalate Concern and Initiate Treatments (all P < 0.001). There was no difference between the UFTO and no‐form groups overall (P = 0.795) or in the subcategories. No difference in Comfort Measures were observed (P = 0.201) between the three groups. Conclusion: The presence of a DNACPR order appears to influence nurse decision making in a deteriorating patient vignette. Differences were not observed in the UFTO and no‐form group. The UFTO may improve the way nurses modulate their behaviours towards critically ill patients with DNACPR status. More hospitals should consider adopting an approach where the resuscitation decisions are contextualised within overall goals of care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Falls are common in the older UK population and associated costs to the NHS are high. Systematic reviews suggest that home exercise and group-based exercise interventions, which focus on progressively challenging balance and increasing strength, can reduce up to 42% of falls in those with a history of falls. The evidence is less clear for those older adults who are currently at low risk of falls. Aim ProAct65+, a large, cluster-randomised, controlled trial, investigated the effectiveness of a home exercise programme (Otago Exercise Programme (OEP)) and a group-based exercise programme (Falls Management Exercise (FaME)) compared to usual care (UC) at increasing moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA). This paper examines the trial’s secondary outcomes; the effectiveness of the interventions at reducing falls and falls-related injuries. Setting & participants 1256 community-dwelling older adults (aged 65 + ) were recruited through GP practices in two sites (London and Nottingham). Frequent fallers (≥3 falls in last year) and those with unstable medical conditions were excluded, as were those already reaching the UK Government recommended levels of physical activity (PA) for health. Methods Baseline assessment (including assessment of health, function and previous falls) occurred before randomisation; the intervention period lasted 24 weeks and there was an immediate post-intervention assessment; participants were followed up every six months for 24 months. Falls data were analysed using negative binomial modelling. Outcome measures Falls data were collected prospectively during the intervention period by 4-weekly diaries (6 in total). Falls recall was recorded at the 3-monthly follow-ups for a total of 24 months. Balance was measured at baseline and at the end of the intervention period using the Timed Up & Go and Functional Reach tests. Balance confidence (CONFbal), falls risk (FRAT) and falls self-efficacy (FES-I) were measured by questionnaire at baseline and at all subsequent assessment points. Results 294 participants (24%) reported one or two falls in the previous year. There was no increase in falls in either exercise group compared to UC during the intervention period (resulting from increased exposure to risk). The FaME arm experienced a significant reduction in injurious falls compared to UC (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.55, 95% CI 0.31, 0.96; p = 0.04) and this continued during the 12 months after the end of the intervention (IRR 0.73, 95% CI 0.54, 0.99; p = 0.05). There was also a significant reduction in the incidence of all falls (injurious and non-injurious) in the FaME arm compared with UC (IRR 0.74, 95% CI 0.55, 0.99; p = 0.04) in the 12 month period following the cessation of the intervention. There was a non-significant reduction in the incidence of all falls in the OEP arm compared with UC (IRR 0.76, 95% CI 0.53, 1.09; p = 0.14) in the 12 months following the cessation of the intervention. The effects on falls did not persist at the 24 months assessment in either exercise arm. However, when those in the FaME group who continued to achieve 150 min of MVPA per week into the second post-intervention year were compared to those in the FaME group who did not maintain their physical activity, there was a significant reduction in falls incidence (IRR = 0.49, 95% CI 0.30, 0.79; p = 0.004). CONFbal was significantly improved at 12 months post intervention in both intervention arms compared with UC. There were no significant changes in any of the functional balance measures, FES-I or FRAT, between baseline and the end of the intervention period. Conclusion Community-dwelling older adults who joined an exercise intervention (FaME) aimed at increasing MVPA did not fall more during the intervention period, fell less and had fewer injurious falls in the 12 months after cessation of the intervention. However, 24 months after cessation of exercise, the beneficial effects of FaME on falls reduction ceased, except in those who maintained higher levels of MVPA. OEP exercise appears less effective at reducing falls in this functionally more able population of older adults. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims and background: This analysis paper describes a comparative evaluation of service deliverables within the Service Level Agreements (SLA) of two acute psychiatric services, one inclusive and the other exclusive of occupational therapy. Methods: Six SLA agreements provided the standards by which the two services were evaluated. The SLAs were evaluated because they are used by the service managers and commissioners to measure performance and clinical effectiveness. The role of the occupational therapists and their contribution to the planning and delivery of the performance indicators was also considered. An evaluation framework was applied to explore the potential role occupational therapy may have had in any performance difference between the two sites. In doing so it is hoped to provide some evidence to support and inform occupational therapists and service managers on the role and of occupational therapy in acute mental health services. This comparative evaluation followed the first three of the five audit stages: 1. Preparing for audit; 2. Selecting criteria; and 3. Measuring performance level. Findings: The service with occupational therapy performed better on home leave day use, ward occupancy and less than 3-day admissions. Conclusions: By delivering their key roles of individual assessment, therapeutic groups, individual treatment and discharge planning, occupational therapists were able to contribute to the overall efficiency of service delivery. These findings support the role of the occupational therapist in an acute psychiatric setting and provide guidance for managers on how to utilise occupational therapy in the delivery of service outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context Medical schools are increasingly using novel tools to select applicants. The UK Clinical Aptitude Test ( UKCAT) is one such tool and measures mental abilities, attitudes and professional behaviour conducive to being a doctor using constructs likely to be less affected by socio-demographic factors than traditional measures of potential. Universities are free to use UKCAT as they see fit but three broad modalities have been observed: 'borderline', 'factor' and 'threshold'. This paper aims to provide the first longitudinal analyses assessing the impact of the different uses of UKCAT on making offers to applicants with different socio-demographic characteristics. Methods Multilevel regression was used to model the outcome of applications to UK medical schools during the period 2004-2011 (data obtained from UCAS), adjusted for sex, ethnicity, schooling, parental occupation, educational attainment, year of application and UKCAT use (borderline, factor and threshold). Results The three ways of using the UKCAT did not differ in their impact on making the selection process more equitable, other than a marked reversal for female advantage when applied in a 'threshold' manner. Our attempt to model the longitudinal impact of the use of the UKCAT in its threshold format found again the reversal of female advantage, but did not demonstrate similar statistically significant reductions of the advantages associated with White ethnicity, higher social class and selective schooling. Conclusion Our findings demonstrate attenuation of the advantage of being female but no changes in admission rates based on White ethnicity, higher social class and selective schooling. In view of this, the utility of the UKCAT as a means to widen access to medical schools among non-White and less advantaged applicants remains unproven. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Early, accurate identification of ADHD would improve outcomes while avoiding unnecessary medication exposure for non-ADHD youths, but is challenging, especially in primary care. The aim of this paper is to test the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) using a nationally representative sample to develop scoring weights for clinical use. The British Child and Adolescent Mental Health Survey ( N = 18,232 youths 5-15 years old) included semi-structured interview DSM-IV diagnoses and parent-rated SDQ scores. Areas under the curve for SDQ subscales were good (0.81) to excellent (0.96) across sex and age groups. Hyperactivity/inattention scale scores of 10+ increased odds of ADHD by 21.3×. For discriminating ADHD from other diagnoses, accuracy was fair (<0.70) to good (0.88); Hyperactivity/inattention scale scores of 10+ increased odds of ADHD by 4.47×. The SDQ is free, easy to score, and provides clinically meaningful changes in odds of ADHD that can guide clinical decision-making in an evidence-based medicine framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background/aim The successful development and maintenance of professional identity is associated with professional development and retention in the health workforce. This paper explores students' perspectives on the ways pre-entry experiences and curricula content shape professional identity. Methods An online cross-sectional survey was sent to students enrolled in the final year of entry-level programmes in five countries. Descriptive statistical analyses of data were completed. Results The results reflect the perceptions of 319 respondents from five countries. Respondents identified professional education (98%) and professional socialisation during placement (92%) as curricula components with the greatest influence on professional identity formation. Discipline-specific knowledge such as, occupation-focussed models and occupational science were ranked lower than these aspects of practice. The students' length of programme and level of entry-level programme did not impact on these results. Conclusion When designing curricula educators need to be mindful that students perceive practice education and professional socialisation have the greatest affect on professional identity formation. The findings reinforce the need for curricula to provide students with a range of practice experiences, which allow the observation and application of occupation-based practices. It highlights a need for educators to provide university-based curricula activities, which better prepare students for a potential dissonance between explicit occupation-based curricula and observed practice education experiences. The study indicates the need for further research into the role curricula content, and in particular practice education, plays in the multidimensional formation of professional development within entry-level programmes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Aims If socio-economic disadvantage is associated with more adolescent smoking, but less participation in tertiary education, and smoking and tertiary education are both associated with heavier drinking, these may represent opposing pathways to heavy drinking. This paper examines contextual variation in the magnitude and direction of these associations. Design Comparing cohort studies. Setting United Kingdom. Participants Participants were from the 1958 National Child Development Study (NCDS58; n = 15 672), the British birth cohort study (BCS70; n = 12 735) and the West of Scotland Twenty-07 1970s cohort (T07; n = 1515). Measurements Participants self-reported daily smoking and weekly drinking in adolescence (age 16 years) and heavy drinking (> 14/21 units in past week) in early adulthood (ages 22-26 years). Parental occupational class (manual versus non-manual) indicated socio-economic background. Education beyond age 18 was coded as tertiary. Models were adjusted for parental smoking and drinking, family structure and adolescent psychiatric distress. Findings Respondents from a manual class were more likely to smoke and less likely to enter tertiary education (e.g. in NCDS58, probit coefficients were 0.201 and -0.765, respectively; P < 0.001 for both) than respondents from a non-manual class. Adolescent smokers were more likely to drink weekly in adolescence (0.346; P < 0.001) and more likely to drink heavily in early adulthood (0.178; P < 0.001) than adolescent non-smokers. Respondents who participated in tertiary education were more likely to drink heavily in early adulthood (0.110 for males, 0.182 for females; P < 0.001 for both) than respondents with no tertiary education. With some variation in magnitude, these associations were consistent across all three cohorts. Conclusions In Britain, young adults are more likely to drink heavily both if they smoke and participate in tertiary education (college and university) despite socio-economic background being associated in opposite directions with these risk factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Eating self-regulatory capacity can help individuals to cope with the obesogenic environment and achieve, as well as maintain, a healthy weight and diet. At present, there is no comprehensive, reliable and valid questionnaire for assessing this capacity and measuring change in response to self-regulation interventions in adults. This paper reports the development of the Self-regulation of Eating Behaviour Questionnaire (SREBQ) for use in UK adults, and presents evidence for its reliability and construct validity. The development of the SREBQ involved generation of an item pool, followed by two pilot studies (Samples 1 and 2) and a test of the questionnaire's underlying factor structure (Sample 3). The final version of the SREBQ was then assessed for reliability and construct validity (Sample 4). Results: Development of the SREBQ resulted in a 5-item questionnaire. The face validity was satisfactory, as assessed by the pilot studies. The factor structure analysis (Sample 3) suggested that it has a single underlying factor, which was confirmed in a second sample (Sample 4). The SREBQ had strong construct validity, showing a positive correlation with general measures of self-regulation. It was also positively correlated with motivation and behavioural automaticity, and negatively correlated with food responsiveness and emotional over-eating (p < 0.001). It showed good discriminant validity, as it was only weakly associated with satiety responsiveness, food fussiness and slowness in eating. Conclusions: The SREBQ is a reliable and valid measure for assessment of eating self-regulatory capacity in the general UK adult population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides a critical discussion of the historical and theoretical meaningfulness of the distinction between ‘objective’ and ‘subjective’ probability, as it supposedly emerged around 1840, by examining whether and how it appeared in the work of the mid-nineteenth-century British revisionist probabilists. A detailed analysis of the contributions of Augustus De Morgan, John Stuart Mill, George Boole, Robert Leslie Ellis and John Venn to probability is put forward in order to show that in so far as the terms did not appear as contradictories it is not possible to understand or compare these contributions with reference to the modern binary of ‘objective’ and ‘subjective’. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – How resources for social care are allocated to individual service users has long been a concern. There are debates regarding the priority given to certain needs in Resource Allocation Systems (RASs). The purpose of this paper is to compare the views of adults with a learning disability and Directors of Adult Social Care regarding their priorities for resource allocation with priorities arising from observed resource allocation decisions. Design/methodology/approach – In a consultation workshop, 12 adults with learning disabilities were asked to rank the perceived importance of eight needs-related outcomes. Directors of Adult Social Care completed an online questionnaire concerning the distribution of resources across the same eight outcomes. Actual resource allocation data from 11 local authorities were also modelled against these outcomes. A variable importance metric (the percentage contribution of each outcome to predicting costs) was used to rank the importance of these outcomes in terms of determining actual resource allocation. Findings from these data collections were compared. Findings – There were discrepancies between the views of adults with a learning disability, the perspectives of Directors and actual resource allocation data. Whereas adults with a learning disability perceived psychological well-being as most important, Directors and actual resource allocation data stressed the importance of activities of daily living and carer burden. Originality/value – This analysis will prove useful in understanding the concerns of adults with a learning disability and whether these are adequately addressed by current RASs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current government agendas for investigating the “Gross National Happiness” have spurred private and commercial organizations to consider whether their work has the potential to influence peoples' happiness and sense of well-being. The role of archaeological projects has yet to be considered, despite the body of research pertaining to their wider social values.Methods:By combining quantitative methodological well-being measures offered by positive and negative affect schedule and modified visual analogue scale (MVAS), this research evaluates if it is possible to identify the role archaeological projects play in enhancing well-being.Results:The analysis of the quantitative data is used to assess whether it is possible to quantitatively identify and link changes in cultural values to involvements in heritage projects.Conclusions:This paper sets out a methodological framework for analysing heritage well-being, providing guidelines for future evaluations of the cultural value of heritage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper outlines several methods for forecasting the next British general election on a daily basis from 20 months prior using opinion polls. It discusses their performance for previous electoral cycles and shows that the two models with the best historical record lead to substantially different predictions for 2015, but they can be averaged. The historical relationship between the polls and the vote suggests that government support rises substantially in the run up to elections, that Conservatives outperform but Labour underperform relative to the polls, and parties generally recover from low points or decline from high ones. Approximate prediction intervals and probabilities for key events are also generated. Despite the Conservatives trailing in the polls by 7 points in early October 2013, the models suggest a substantial Conservative lead at the 2015 election with a 64% chance of being the largest party and 42% chance of an overall majority. The estimated probability of a hung parliament (40%) is instructive for understanding the operation of the electoral system. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background Both the prevalence of childhood obesity and the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages ( SSBs) have increased globally. The present review describes interventions that reduce the consumption of SSBs in children and determines whether this leads to subsequent changes in body fatness. Methods Three databases were searched from 2000 to August 2013. Only intervention control trials, ≥6 months in duration, which aimed to reduce the consumption of SSBs in >100 children aged 2-18 years, and reporting changes in body fatness, were included. The quality of selected papers was assessed. Results Eight studies met inclusion criteria. Six interventions achieved significant ( P < 0.05) reductions in SSB intake, although this was not always sustained. In the two interventions providing replacement drinks, significant differences in body mass index (12- or 18-month follow-up) were reported ( P = 0.001 and 0.045). The risk of being overweight/obesity was reduced ( P < 0.05) in three of the five education programmes but in one programme only for girls who were overweight at baseline and in one programme only for pupils perceived to be at greater risk at baseline. In the one study that included both provision of water and education, the risk of being overweight was reduced by 31% ( P = 0.04) in the intervention group. Conclusions The evidence suggests that school-based education programmes focusing on reducing SSB consumption, but including follow-up modules, offer opportunities for implementing effective, sustainable interventions. Peer support and changing the school environment (e.g. providing water or replacement drinks) to support educational programmes could improve their effectiveness. Home delivery of more suitable drinks has a big impact on reducing SSB consumption, with associated reductions in body weight. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The goal of this paper is to correct a widespread misconception about the work of Robert Leslie Ellis and John Venn, namely that it can be considered as the ‘British empiricist’ reaction against the traditional theory of probability. It is argued, instead, that there was no unified ‘British school’ of frequentism during the nineteenth century. Where Ellis arrived at frequentism from a metaphysical idealist transformation of probability theory’s mathematical calculations, Venn did so on the basis of an empiricist critique of its ‘inverse application’. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper examines the impact of disability onset on the probability of employment using an underexplored longitudinal dataset for Britain. It contrasts estimates based on a control group drawn from those not experiencing disability onset – a common approach in the literature – with estimates based on a control group drawn from those who do experience disability onset, but one year after the treatment group. Compared to the non-disabled control group, the control group of later-onsetters is likely to be more similar to the treatment group in terms of unobservables, with the resulting estimates therefore more plausibly interpreted as causal. Using this control group we estimate that the probability of employment falls by 11 percentage points in the year of disability onset. The equivalent estimate using the control group drawn from those not experiencing onset is about fifty percent larger. The employment effects of disability onset are also shown to be larger for those with lower qualification levels, consistent with weaker attachment to the labour market. • We examine the impact of disability onset on employment using British data. • We present estimates using a control group not experiencing disability onset. • We also present estimates using a control group experiencing later disability onset. • The probability of employment declines by 16 and 11 percentage points respectively. • Disability onset has a larger employment effect for those with fewer qualifications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]