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Aim: The aim is to identify important factors for immigrants' health and well-being and for their use (or non-use) of primary health care (PHC) and other non-specialised services, and for possible ways that PHC can support healthy ageing of immigrants. Background: Older persons are an increasing share of the immigrant population in the global north, frequently in contact with various forms of health services, (PHC services most of all. Consequently, PHC services are in a particularly unique position to support healthy ageing of immigrants. Methods: The position paper builds on five international, multi-professional and cross-disciplinary small group discussions as well as an international workshop early summer. During the discussions and the workshop, topics were arrived at as to factors related to the health situation of older immigrants, their needs, and health-seeking behaviour, and to how PHC professionals could support healthy ageing in immigrants. Those main topics in turn guided search for relevant research literature and informed the selection of the main research questions of this paper. Findings: Several factors, in addition to culture and cultural differences, are important to for PHC professionals and decision-makers to take into consideration in encounters with older immigrants. The socio-economic position of the older immigrant and close relatives, inter-generational relationships within the immigrant communities, country-specific factors in the host country like health care expenditure, and communication skills in health professionals are all examples of factors playing an important role regarding the health and health-seeking behaviour of older immigrants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes a theory of the variability of risky choice that describes empirical properties of choice data, including sequential effects and systematic violations of response independence. The Markov True and Error (MARTER) model represents the formation and fluctuation of true preferences produced by stochastic variation of parameters over time, which produces changing true preference patterns. This model includes a probabilistic association between true preferences and overt responses due to random error. Computer programs have been developed to simulate data according to this model, to fit data to the TE model, and to test and analyze violations of iid (independent and identical distributions) that are predicted by the model. Data simulated from MARTER models show properties that are characteristic of real data, including violations of iid similar to those observed in previous empirical research. This paper also illustrates how methods based on analysis of binary response proportions do not and in many cases cannot correctly diagnose what model was used to generate the data. The MARTER model is extremely general and neutral with respect to models of risky decision making. For example, the transitive transfer of attention exchange (TAX) model and intransitive Lexicographic Semiorder (LS) models can both be represented as special cases of MARTER, and they can be tested against each other, even when binary choice proportions cannot discriminate which model was used to simulate the data. Software to simulate data according to this model, and to fit data to this model, to test this model, and to compare special case theories are included or linked to this article. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The aim of this paper is to describe the implementation and evaluation of the Growing Strong Brains® (GSB) toolkit in a remote Aboriginal community in Western Australia (WA) over a 2-year period, 2018–2019. Background: Ngala, a community service organisation in WA, developed the GSB toolkit in 2014, a culturally appropriate and interactive resource to build knowledge of early childhood development within Aboriginal communities. This was in response to evidence that a higher percentage of children in Aboriginal communities were developmentally vulnerable compared to the rest of the population. The GSB toolkit promotes awareness and understanding of early brain development pre-birth and in the early years of a child's life. Methods: The project was underpinned by participatory action research (PAR). Reflective PAR review cycles (n = 5) monitored local community engagement, navigated challenges and utilised community strengths. Fifty-nine local service providers attended a 2-day formal training. Data were collected by using various methods throughout the project, including feedback following training, focus groups, surveys, one-on-one interviews using yarning techniques and reflective feedback from the Project Lead. Findings: Establishing local Aboriginal project staff was pivotal to the success of the project. When delivering services for and with Aboriginal people, it is essential that cultural competence, safety and decision-making is carried through from planning to implementation and evaluation, and involves genuine, respectful and authentic relationships. Sufficient time allocation directed towards building relationships with other service providers and local community members needs to be considered and built into future projects. The Growing Strong Brains® project is embedded within the local community, and anticipated implementation outcomes were achieved. The support of the local people and service providers was beyond expectation, enabling the building of local capacity, and the development of a common understanding of the key messages from the GSB toolkit to allow integration throughout all levels of the community. This project has been important to build on the strategies necessary to introduce, implement and evaluate the GSB toolkit in other remote Aboriginal communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The risky choice framing effect disclosed that presenting data in a loss scenario lead decision-makers towards risky choices. Conversely, a gain scenario prevents themfrom taking a risk. Framing effect robustness has been widely confirmed by psychological literature. However, the framing of medical treatments, based on McNeil et al. (1982) paradigm, raised both methodological doubts and contrasting evidence. Our research aimed to investigate the presence and the nature of the framing effect in the McNeil et al. (1982) paradigm. In particular, we thought that the obtained switch of preferences across frames was due to a misleading formulation of the data given in a negative cumulative frequency format. We conducted three studies: (1) we replicated McNeil et al.'s (1982) original study (N=150) with medicine (n=50), statistics (n=50) and lay (n=50) students; (2) we tested (N=180) our hypothesis by comparing a cumulative frequency format with an alternative version, namely a linear progression one; (3) we compared (N=430) the effect of different formats (cumulative frequency, linear progression and interval frequency) on choices. Our results showed that, while the framing effect is present when employing a cumulative frequency format, it disappears when using a linear progression one. Moreover, our results show that decision-makers better understand information when given in a linear progression and an interval frequency format. In the current paper, we argue that the way in which a problem is formulated plays a relevant role in the representation of the decisional task and the decision-making. Keywords: medical framing effect, reverse pattern of choice, understanding numerical information, pragmatic approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interplay between intuitive and deliberative processing is known to be important for human decision making. As independent modes, intuitive processes can take on many forms from associative to constructive, while deliberative processes often rely on some notion of decision theoretic rationality or pattern matching. Dual process models attempt to unify these two modes based on parallel constraint networks or on socially or emotionally oriented adjustments to utility functions. This paper presents a new kind of dual process model that unifies decision theoretic deliberative reasoning with intuitive reasoning based on shared cultural affective meanings in a single Bayesian sequential model. Agents constructed according to this unified model are motivated by a combination of affective alignment (intuitive) and decision theoretic reasoning (deliberative), trading the two off as a function of the uncertainty or unpredictability of the situation. The model also provides a theoretical bridge between decision-making research and sociological symbolic interactionism. Starting with a high-level view of existing models, we advance Bayesian Affect Control Theory (BayesACT) as a promising new type of dual process model that explicitly and optimally (in the Bayesian sense) trades off motivation, action, beliefs and utility. We demonstrate a key component of the model as being sufficient to account for some aspects of classic cognitive biases about fairness and dissonance, and outline how this new theory relates to parallel constraint satisfaction models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces a novel theoretical model and measure of strategic thinking in social decision making. The model distinguishes four strategic orientations: egocentric (thinking about how one's actions shape one's outcomes), impact (thinking about how one's actions shapes others' outcomes), dependency (thinking about how others' actions shape one's outcomes), and altercentric (thinking about how others' actions shape their outcomes). Applying this model to explain social behavior in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, an exploratory study finds that the more people think about how their actions shape others' outcomes, the more likely they are to: (a) comply with social distancing restrictions designed to curb the spread of the virus, and (b) donate money they received in the study to charitable organizations. These findings advance understanding of the multifaceted nature of strategic thinking and highlight the usefulness of the Strategic Thinking Scale for explaining social behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper experimentally investigates a well-known anomaly in portfolio management, i.e., the fact that paper losses are realized less than paper gains (disposition effect). I confirm the existence of the disposition effect in a simple risky task in which choices are taken sequentially. However, when choices are planned ahead and a contingent plan is defined, a reversal in the disposition effect is observed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The notorious bat-and-ball problem has long been used to demonstrate that people are easily biased by their intuitions. In this paper we test the robustness of biased responding by examining how it is affected by repeated problem presentation. Participants solved 50 standard and control versions of the bat-and-ball problem. To examine the nature of a potential learning effect we adopted a two-response paradigm in which participants have to give a first hunch and can afterwards take the time to deliberate and change their answer. Results showed that both people's first hunches and the responses they gave after deliberation predominantly remained biased from start to finish. But in the rare cases in which participants did learn to correct themselves, they immediately managed to apply the solution strategy and gave a correct hunch on the subsequent problems. We discuss critical methodological and theoretical implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: This study is aimed at developing a Rural Primary Health Care (PHC) Model for delivering comprehensive PHC for dementia in rural settings and addressing the gap in knowledge about disseminating and implementing evidence-based dementia care in a rural PHC context. Background: Limited access to specialists and services in rural areas leads to increased responsibility for dementia diagnosis and management in PHC, yet a gap exists in evidence-based best practices for rural dementia care. Methods: Elements of the Rural PHC Model for Dementia were based on seven principles of effective PHC for dementia identified from published research and organized into three domains: team-based care, decision support, and specialist-to-provider support. Since 2013 the researchers have collaborated with a rural PHC team in a community of 1000 people in the Canadian province of Saskatchewan to operationalize these elements in ways that were feasible in the local context. The five-step approach included: building relationships; conducting a problem analysis/needs assessment; identifying core and adaptable elements of a decision support tool embedded in the model and resolving applicability issues; implementing and adapting the intervention with local stakeholders; and sustaining the model while incrementally scaling up. Results: Developing and sustaining relationships at regional and PHC team levels was critical. A comprehensive needs assessment identified challenges related to all domains of the Rural PHC Model. An existing decision support tool for dementia diagnosis and management was adapted and embedded in the team's electronic medical record. Strategies for operationalizing other model elements included integrating team-based care co-ordination into the decision support tool and family-centered case conferences. Research team specialists provided educational sessions on topics identified by the PHC team. This paper provides an example of a community-based process for adapting evidence-based practice principles to a real-world setting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: (i) To determine the current state of online grocery shopping, including individuals' motivations for shopping for groceries online and types of foods purchased; and (ii) to identify the potential promise and pitfalls that online grocery shopping may offer in relation to food and beverage purchases.Design: PubMed, ABI/INFORM and Google Scholar were searched to identify published research.Setting: To be included, studies must have been published between 2007 and 2017 in English, based in the USA or Europe (including the UK), and focused on: (i) motivations for online grocery shopping; (ii) the cognitive/psychosocial domain; and (iii) the community or neighbourhood food environment domain.Subjects: Our search yielded twenty-four relevant papers.Results: Findings indicate that online grocery shopping can be a double-edged sword. While it has the potential to increase healthy choices via reduced unhealthy impulse purchases, nutrition labelling strategies, and as a method to overcome food access limitations among individuals with limited access to a brick-and-mortar store, it also has the potential to increase unhealthy choices due to reasons such as consumers' hesitance to purchase fresh produce online.Conclusions: Additional research is needed to determine the most effective ways to positively engage customers to use online grocery shopping to make healthier choices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the results of a study that sheds new light on the shape of indifference curves in the Marschak-Machina triangle. The most important observation, obtained non-parametrically, concerns jumps in indifference curves at the triangle legs towards the triangle origin. These jumps, however, do not appear at the hypotenuse. The pattern observed suggests discontinuity in lottery valuation when the range of lottery outcomes changes and is best explained by decision-making models based on the psychological phenomenon of range dependence (Parducci, 1965; Cohen, 1992; Kontek & Lewandowski, 2018). Models founded on other psychological phenomena, e.g., discontinuity in decision weights (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979), cumulative probability weighting (Tversky & Kahneman, 1992), attention shifting (Birnbaum, 2008), overweighting of salient payoffs (Bordallo, Gennaioli & Shefrin, 2012), and treating stated probabilities as imperfect information (Viscusi, 1989), predict indifference curve shapes that differ from the one obtained in this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Risk behavior can be capricious and may vary from month to month. We study 62 clients of a private bank in Northern Italy. The individuals are of special interest for several reasons. As active traders, they manage the value-at-risk (VaR) of a portion of their wealth portfolios. In addition, they act alone, i.e., without input from a financial adviser. Based on VaR-statistics, we find that, in general, the subjects become more risk-averse after suffering losses and more risk-seeking after experiencing gains. The monthly gains and losses that alter investor risk behavior represent true changes in wealth but are "on paper" only, i.e., not immediately realized. Our results allow several interpretations, but they are not at odds with a house money effect, or the possibility that overconfident investors trade on illusions. Rapidly shifting risk behavior in fast response to unstable circumstances weakens individual risk tolerance as a deep parameter and key construct of finance theory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper I investigate the impact of numerological superstitions and discounts' effect on the buyers' behavior in the apartment market using actual sales data. Based on the dataset from Moscow primary real estate market, which includes 40 buildings, we test the apartments buyers' demand on lucky 7th floor and unlucky 13th floor in comparison to neighboring floors and its response to developers' discount policy for the apartments on the 13th floor. Results of the random-effects model for the preference towards 7th floor show that that "good luck" effect is present at the 90% confidence interval. Results of the mixed-effects model for the preference towards the 13th floor's apartments show that in case of discount moderation, the "bad luck" effect of the 13th floor is mitigated, while in case of "no discount" buildings we find the clear negative effect of the 13th floor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

True and Error Theory (TET) provides a method to separate the variability of behavior into components due to changing true policy and to random error. TET is a testable theory that can serve as a statistical model, allowing one to evaluate substantive theories as nested, special cases. TET is more accurate descriptively and has theoretical advantages over previous approaches. This paper presents a freely available computer program in R that can be used to fit and evaluate both TET and substantive theories that are special cases of it. The program performs Monte Carlo simulations to generate distributions of test statistics and bootstrapping to provide confidence intervals on parameter estimates. Use of the program is illustrated by a reanalysis of previously published data testing whether what appeared to be violations of Expected Utility (EU) theory (Allais paradoxes) by previous methods might actually be consistent with EU theory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Despite the usefulness of quantitative research, qualitative research methodologies are equally needed to allow researchers to better understand the important social and environmental factors affecting food choice and eating habits. The present paper contributes insights from narrative inquiry, a well-established qualitative methodology, to a food-related doctoral research study. The connections between food shoppers and the producer, family, friends and others in the food system, between eaters and the earth, and how these connections affect people's meaning-making of food and pathways to food citizenship, were explored in the research.Design: The research used narrative inquiry methodology and focus groups for data collection.Setting: Five different food-ways in the Canberra region of Australia were selected for the present research; that is, community gardens, community-supported agriculture, farmers' markets, fresh food markets and supermarkets.Subjects: Fifty-two people voluntarily attended eight focus groups with four to nine participants in each.Results: From a practical perspective, the present paper offers a guide to the way in which narrative inquiry has been applied to one research project. The paper describes the application of narrative inquiry methodology, revealing the important place of narratives in generating new knowledge. The paper further outlines how phased narrative analysis can lead to a defensible and rigorous interpretive framework grounded in the data generated from people's stories and meaning-making.Conclusions: We argue that individual, social and system change will not be possible without further rigorous qualitative studies to inform and complement the empirical basis of public health nutrition practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explored how frames influence people's evaluation of others' probabilistic predictions in light of the outcomes of binary events. Most probabilistic predictions (e.g., "there is a 75% chance that Denver will win the Super Bowl") can be partitioned into two components: A qualitative component that describes the predicted outcome ("Denver will win the Super Bowl"), and a quantitative component that represents the chance of the outcome occurring ("75% chance"). Various logically equivalent variations of a single prediction can be created through different combinations of these components and their logical or numerical complements (e.g., "25% chance that Denver will lose the Super Bowl", "75% chance that Seattle will lose the Super Bowl"). Based on the outcome of the predicted event, these logically equivalent predictions can be categorized into two classes: Congruently framed predictions, in which the qualitative component matches the outcome, and incongruently framed predictions, in which it does not. Although the two classes of predictions are logically equivalent, we hypothesize that people would judge congruently framed predictions to be more accurate. The paper tested this hypothesis in seven experiments and found supporting evidence across a number of domains and experimental manipulations, and even when the congruently framed prediction was logically inferior. It also found that this effect held even for subjects who saw both congruently framed and incongruently framed versions of a prediction and judged the two to be logically equivalent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Longoni et al. (2019), we examine how algorithm aversion influences utilization of healthcare delivered by human and artificial intelligence providers. Pezzo and Beckstead's (2020) commentary asks whether resistance to medical AI takes the form of a noncompensatory decision strategy, in which a single attribute determines provider choice, or whether resistance to medical AI is one of several attributes considered in a compensatory decision strategy. We clarify that our paper both claims and finds that, all else equal, resistance to medical AI is one of several attributes (e.g., cost and performance) influencing healthcare utilization decisions. In other words, resistance to medical AI is a consequential input to compensatory decisions regarding healthcare utilization and provider choice decisions, not a noncompensatory decision strategy. People do not always reject healthcare provided by AI, and our article makes no claim that they do. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews progress in the application of computational models to personality, developmental, and clinical neuroscience. We first describe the concept of a computational phenotype, a collection of parameters derived from computational models fit to behavioral and neural data. This approach represents individuals as points in a continuous parameter space, complementing traditional trait and symptom measures. One key advantage of this representation is that it is mechanistic: The parameters have interpretations in terms of cognitive processes, which can be translated into quantitative predictions about future behavior and brain activity. We illustrate with several examples how this approach has led to new scientific insights into individual differences, developmental trajectories, and psychopathology. We then survey some of the challenges that lay ahead. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Kenneth R. Hammond (1917-2015) made several major contributions to the science of human judgment and decision making. As a student of Egon Brunswik, he kept Brunswik's legacy alive - advancing his theory of probabilistic functionalism and championing his method of representative design. Hammond pioneered the use of Brunswik's lens model as a framework for studying how individuals use information from the task environment to make clinical judgments, which was the precursor to much 'policy capturing' and 'judgment analysis' research. Hammond introduced the lens model equation to the study of judgment processes, and used this to measure the utility of different forms of feedback in multiple-cue probability learning. He extended the scope of analysis to contexts in which individuals interact with one another - introducing the interpersonal learning and interpersonal conflict paradigms. Hammond developed social judgment theory which provided a comprehensive quantitative approach for describing and improving judgment processes. He proposed cognitive continuum theory which states that quasi-rationality is an important middle-ground between intuition and analysis and that cognitive performance is dictated by the match between task properties and mode of cognition. Throughout his career, Hammond moved easily from basic laboratory work to applied settings, where he resolved policy disputes, and in doing so, he pointed to the dichotomy between theories of correspondence and coherence. In this paper, we present Hammond's legacy to a new generation of judgment and decision making scholars. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When decisions involve opting in or out of competition many decision makers will opt-in even when doing so leads to losses on average. In the current paper, we examine the generality of this effect in risky choices not involving competition. We found that re-framing a sure (certain) zero option as an option to observe the results of the other options without choosing would lead to increased consequential choice (i.e., increased selection of risky options rather than the zero option). Specifically, in two studies we compared the rate of consequential choice in a novel paradigm where decision makers decide to observe or to choose with consequence from a set of risky options (decisions-to-engage) to a full-feedback decisions-from-feedback paradigm where the choice set included a labeled sure zero option. Compared to decisions-from-feedback, participants were more likely to choose from mixed (risky) gambles with consequence (over a zero outcome) in decisions-to-engage. This occurred irrespective of whether doing so was advantageous (i.e., when choice led to monetary gains on average) or disadvantageous (i.e., when choice led to monetary losses on average), and when descriptions of the options outcomes and probabilities were provided (Study 2). These findings provide an important boundary condition for the positive effects of experience on the quality of choice, and suggest that decision makers' preference for agency can sometimes induce poorer choices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates how the numerosity bias influences individuals' allocation of resources between themselves and others, using the backdrop of the traditional dictator game. Across four studies including both hypothetical and real exchanges of money, we show that the form of the numerical value representing the quantity of the resource (e.g., $20 vs 2000 cents) systematically biases the decision-maker to perceive the quantity s/he is thinking of allocating as being "less than adequate" or "more than adequate". Essentially, such a biased perception of adequacy with respect to the quantity of the resource consequently influences the decision-maker's final allocation decision. We attribute this systematic bias to the "numerosity" of the resource. We find that bigger numerical values representing quantity (e.g., 2000 cents) bias decision-makers to over-infer the quantity, thus inducing them to allocate less to the entities they are focusing on. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The literature on behavioral decision-making and negotiations to date usually advocates first-mover advantage in distributive negotiations and bases this preference on the anchoring heuristic. In the following paper, we suggest that the preference for moving first vs. moving second in negotiations may not be as clear-cut as presumed, especially in situations characterized by information asymmetry between negotiating counterparts. In Study 1, we examined people's initiation preferences and found that unless taught otherwise, people intuitively often prefer to move second. In Studies 2-4, we experimentally tested the suggested advantage of moving second and demonstrated that in information-asymmetry scenarios-when one party has perfect background information and the other has none--it is actually preferable for both counterparts not to give the first offer while negotiating. We discuss the implications of our findings on the field of negotiation and decision-making and lay the groundwork for future studies examining this issue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have found that the proportions of people who endorsed utilitarian decisions varied across different variants of the trolley dilemma. In this paper, we explored whether moral choices were associated with beliefs about outcome probabilities in different moral dilemmas. Results of two experiments showed that participant's perceptions of outcome probabilities were different between two dilemmas that were similar to the classical switch case and footbridge case. Participant's judgments of the outcome probabilities were associated with their moral choices. The results suggested that participants might not accept task instructions and thus did not perceive the outcomes in the dilemmas as certain. We argued that researchers who endorse descriptive tasks in moral reasoning research should be cautious about the findings and should take participant's beliefs in the outcomes into account. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decision scientists have identified various plausible sources of ideological polarization over climate change, gun violence, national security, and like issues that turn on empirical evidence. This paper describes a study of three of them: the predominance of heuristic-driven information processing by members of the public; ideologically motivated reasoning; and the cognitive-style correlates of political conservativism. The study generated both observational and experimental data inconsistent with the hypothesis that political conservatism is distinctively associated with either unreflective thinking or motivated reasoning. Conservatives did no better or worse than liberals on the Cognitive Reflection Test (Frederick, 2005), an objective measure of information-processing dispositions associated with cognitive biases. In addition, the study found that ideologically motivated reasoning is not a consequence of over-reliance on heuristic or intuitive forms of reasoning generally. On the contrary, subjects who scored highest in cognitive reflection were the most likely to display ideologically motivated cognition. These findings corroborated an alternative hypothesis, which identifies ideologically motivated cognition as a form of information processing that promotes individuals' interests in forming and maintaining beliefs that signify their loyalty to important affinity groups. The paper discusses the practical significance of these findings, including the need to develop science communication strategies that shield policy-relevant facts from the influences that turn them into divisive symbols of political identity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The Crunch&Sip programme is a school-based nutrition initiative designed to increase the fruit, vegetable and water intakes of primary-school children. In recognition of the notable deficits in children's vegetable consumption, the present study explored the receptivity of school staff to a realignment of the Crunch&Sip programme to feature a primary focus on vegetable consumption. This involved investigating school staff members' perceptions of relevant barriers, motivators and facilitators.Design: A multi-method approach was adopted that involved four focus groups and a survey (administered in paper and online formats) containing a mixture of open- and closed-ended items.Setting: Western Australia.Subjects: Staff from Western Australian schools participated in the focus groups (n 37) and survey (n 620).Results: School staff were strongly supportive of modifying the Crunch&Sip programme to focus primarily on children's vegetable consumption and this was generally considered to be a feasible change to implement. Possible barriers identified included children's taste preferences and a perceived lack of parental support. Suggested strategies to overcome these barriers were education sessions for parents and children, teachers modelling vegetable consumption for their students and integrating vegetable-related topics into the school curriculum.Conclusions: School staff are likely to support the introduction of school-based nutrition programmes that specifically encourage the consumption of vegetables. Potential barriers may be overcome through strategies to engage parents and children. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a world that offers children abundant activities from which to choose, understanding how to motivate children to engage longer in productive activities is crucial. This paper examines how the offered assortment size affects children's engagement with their chosen option. In the first study, I show children prefer to choose from a larger set even though they think doing so is more difficult. Then, in Studies 2 and 3, four-to five-year-old children choose from either a small set (two options) or a large set (six or seven options). In study 2, children choose a book to look at and I measure how long they look at it. In Study 3, children choose a game to play with and I measure how long they play. Children spend more time looking at the book and playing with the game they choose from the small versus the large set. By contrast, the size of the choice set does not affect food consumption. Such findings contribute to our understanding of young children's decision-making and have important implications for determining the optimal assortment size to offer children to increase engagement with desirable activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a new business form, the buy-online and pick-up-in-store (BOPS) mode allows consumers to pay for goods online and pick them up in a physical store. In this paper, an equilibrium model is constructed to formulate an optimal decision-making problem for online and offline retailers under the BOPS mode, where the online retailer determines the retail price of the goods and the consignment quantity in a physical store, while the offline retailer chooses the revenue share of profit by a consignment contract. Different to the existing models, the cost of overstocking and loss of understocking are incorporated into the profit function of the online retailer due to the randomness of demand. For the objective function of the offline retailer, the cross-sale quantity generated by the BOPS mode is taken into account. Then the game between the online and offline retailers is expressed as a stochastic Nash equilibrium model. Based on the analytic properties of the model, necessary conditions for the equilibrium solution are obtained. A case study and sensitivity analysis are employed to reveal the managerial implications of the model, which can provide a number of valuable suggestions on optimizing the strategies for the online and offline retailers under the BOPS mode. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

To many observers Japanese decision-making is an enigma that defies conventional analysis. Neither the traditional rational actor model of decision-making, nor alternative pluralist models proposed for the analysis of Western democracies fit the Japanese case. As a result Japanese security policy decision-making is described as ‘reactive’ or even non-existent. Likewise, the anomaly of Japanese decision-making is ultimately predicted to be resolved through a process of ‘normalization’ whereby Japanese policy formation evolves into a form that does fit these models. However, this paper contends that the fact that Japan’s security decision-making does not fit commonly-used models is due rather to the limitations of those models. Japan’s security policy, like that of all states, is gradually evolving, but this does not mean that it is about to become just like the West. This paper addresses how a conjuncture of external factors and internal factors has stimulated important changes in Japanese security policy-making which are frequently missed or misinterpreted by observers. In order to understand Japanese security policy-making, and to chart its future course, a refined cybernetic approach is introduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper begins the analysis of complex multi-actor, multi-round decision-making processes in Canadian public policy formation. After setting out the notion of a decision-making style and its constitutive elements, the paper identifies research into complex multi-actor, multi-round decisions as a serious lacuna in the literature on public policy decision-making, despite the fact that this type of decision-making is very common in public policy-making circumstances. The paper advances research in this area through the analysis of several hypotheses raised in recent European studies concerning the conditions under which such processes are likely to successfully conclude in a decision, rather than an impasse. These hypotheses are tested against evidence taken from five cases of multi-round decision-making in Canada over the period 1995-2005: amendments to the Indian Act, the creation of Species-at-risk legislation, alterations to the Bank Act, the extension of Privacy legislation to the private sector and efforts to develop a Free Trade of the Americas Agreement (FTAA). Data on actor interactions in these five areas gleaned from on-line newspaper and media index services reveals that Canadian results do not match those arrived at in European studies, showing both different patterns of government and non-governmental activity and less volatility in actor behaviour as rounds evolve over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper asks (a) why and how institutions change, (b) how an institution persists in a changing environment, and (c) how processes that it unleashes lead to its own demise. The paper shows that the game-theoretic notion of self-enforcing equilibrium and the historical institutionalist focus on process are both inadequate to answer these questions. Building on a game-theoretic foundation, but responding to the critique of it by historical institutionalists, the paper introduces the concepts of quasi-parameters and self reinforcement With these concepts, and building on repeated game theory, a dynamic approach to institutions is offered, one that can account for endogenous change (and stability) of institutions. Contextual accounts of formal governing institutions in early modern Europe and the informal institution of cleavage structure in the contemporary world provide illustrations of the approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prospect Theory predicts that people tend to be more risk seeking if their reference point is perceived as a loss and more risk averse when the reference point is perceived as a gain. In line with this prediction, Franken, Georgieva, Muris and Dijksterhuis (2006) showed that young adults who had a prior experience of monetary gains make more safe choices on subsequent decisions than subjects who had an early experience of losses. There are no experimental studies on how experiencing prior gains and losses differently influences young and older adults on a subsequent decision-making task (the Iowa Gambling Task). Hence, in the current paper, adapting the methodology employed by Franken et al.'s (2006), we intended to test the generality of their effect across the life span. Overall, we found that subjects who experienced prior monetary gains or prior monetary losses did not display significant differences in safe/risky choices on subsequent performance in the Iowa Gambling task. Furthermore, the impact of prior gains and losses on risky/safe card selection did not significantly differ between young and older adults. These results showed that the effect found in the Franken et al.'s study (2006) is limited in its generality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Optimal control problems of stochastic switching type appear frequently when making decisions under uncertainty and are notoriously challenging from a computational viewpoint. Although numerous approaches have been suggested in the literature to tackle them, typical real-world applications are inherently high dimensional and usually drive common algorithms to their computational limits. Furthermore, even when numerical approximations of the optimal strategy are obtained, practitioners must apply time-consuming and unreliable Monte Carlo simulations to assess their quality. In this paper, we show how one can overcome both difficulties for a specific class of discrete-time stochastic control problems. A simple and efficient algorithm which yields approximate numerical solutions is presented and methods to perform diagnostics are provided. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper investigates choices about "distributional fairness" (sometimes called "distributive justice"), i.e., selection of the proper way for resources to be distributed in group. The study finds evidence that several of the same biases of risky decision making also apply to choices about distributional fairness, in particular focusing on the key biases that lead to prospect theory. This finding is achieved by introducing a novel thought experiment regarding the fairness of resource distributions, then manipulating the percentage of individuals who gain or lose in these distributions, and changing the sizes of gains and losses. Shared biases may mean similar heuristics are being employed. The mechanism behind this result leaves room for future exploration, as do the implications of the finding for related applications in inequality research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) has affected the functioning and capacity of healthcare systems worldwide. COVID-19 has also disproportionately affected older adults, including those living with dementia. In the context of COVID-19, decision-making surrounding place of care and place of death in this population involves significant new challenges. Objectives: To explore key factors that influence place of care and place of death decisions in older adults. A secondary aim was to investigate key factors that influence the process and outcome of these decisions in older adults. To apply findings from current evidence to the context of COVID-19. Methods: Rapid review of reviews, undertaken using WHO guidance for rapid reviews. Ten papers were included for full data extraction. These papers were published between 2005-2020. Data extracted was synthesised using narrative synthesis, with thematic analysis and tabulation. Results: Papers included discussed actual place of death, as well as preferred. Results were divided into papers that explored the process of decision-making, and those that explored decision-making outcomes. Factors such as caregiver capacity, the availability of multidisciplinary teams, cultural appropriateness of care packages and advanced care planning were found to be key. Conclusions: The process and outcomes of decision-making for older people are affected by many factors - all of which have the potential to influence both patients and caregivers experience of illness and dying. Within the context of COVID-19, such decisions may have to be made rapidly and be reflexive to changing needs of systems and of families and patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

People tend to prefer smaller and sooner (SS) rewards over larger and later (LL) ones even when the latter are much larger. Previous research have identified several ways to enhance people's patience. Adding to this literature, the current paper demonstrates that introduction of upfront losses as well as gains to both SS and LL rewards can decrease people's impatience. This effect is incompatible with both the normative exponential and descriptive hyperbolic discounting models, which agree on the additive assumption and the independence assumption. We also exclude the integration explanation which assumes subjects integrate upfront money with final rewards and make a decision with bottom line at the end. We consider several possible explanations, including the salience hypothesis, which states that introducing upfront money makes the money dimension more salient than not and thus increases the attractiveness of LL options. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Choice Blindness is an experimental paradigm that examines the interplay between individuals' preferences, decisions, and expectations by manipulating the relationship between intention and choice. This paper expands upon the existing Choice Blindness framework by investigating the presence of the effect in an economically significant decision context, specifically that of pension choice. In addition, it investigates a number of secondary factors hypothesized to modulate Choice Blindness, including reaction time, risk preference, and decision complexity, as well as analysing the verbal reports of non-detecting participants. The experiment was administered to 100 participants of mixed age and educational attainment. The principal finding was that no more than 37.2% of manipulated trials were detected over all conditions, a result consistent with previous Choice Blindness research. Analysis of secondary factors found that reaction time, financial sophistication and decision complexity were significant predictors of Choice Blindness detection, while content analysis of non-detecting participant responses found that 20% implied significant preference changes and 62% adhered to initial preferences. Implications of the Choice Blindness effect in the context of behavioural economics are discussed, and an agenda for further investigation of the paradigm in this context is outlined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ObjectiveFollowing an international workshop on developing the evidence base for policy relating to school food held in London, UK, in January 2012, the objectives of the present paper were (i) to outline a rationale for school food research, monitoring and evaluation in relation to policy and (ii) to identify ways forward for future working.DesignThe authors analysed presentations, summaries of evidence, and notes from discussions held at the international workshop in London in 2012 to distil common themes and make recommendations for the development of coherent research programmes relating to food and nutrition in schools.SettingInternational, with an emphasis on middle- and high-income countries.ResultsOverviews of existing school food and nutrition programmes from the UK, Hungary, Sweden, the USA, Australia, Brazil, China, Mexico and other countries were presented, along with information on monitoring, evaluation and other research to demonstrate the impact of school feeding on health, attainment, food sourcing, procurement and finances, in the context of interactions between the evidence base and policy decisions. This provided the material which, together with summaries and notes of discussions, was used to develop recommendations for the development and dissemination of robust approaches to sustainable and effective school food and nutrition programmes in middle- and high-income countries, including policy guidelines, standards, cost-effectiveness measures and the terms of political engagement.ConclusionsSchool food and nutrition can provide a cohesive core for health, education and agricultural improvement provided: (i) policy is appropriately framed and includes robust monitoring and evaluation; and (ii) all stakeholders are adequately engaged in the process. International exchange of information will be used to develop a comprehensive guide to the assessment of the impact of school food and nutrition policy and supporting infrastructure. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Previous studies of loss aversion in decisions under risk have led to mixed results. Losses appear to loom larger than gains in some settings, but not in others. The current paper clarifies these results by highlighting six experimental manipulations that tend to increase the likelihood of the behavior predicted by loss aversion. These manipulations include: (1) framing of the safe alternative as the status quo; (2) ensuring that the choice pattern predicted by loss aversion maximizes the probability of positive (rather than zero or negative) outcomes; (3) the use of high nominal (numerical) payoffs; (4) the use of high stakes; (5) the inclusion of highly attractive risky prospects that creates a contrast effect; and (6) the use of long experiments in which no feedback is provided and in which the computation of the expected values is difficult. In addition, the results suggest the possibility of learning in the absence of feedback: The tendency to select simple strategies, like "maximize the worst outcome" which implies "loss aversion", increases when this behavior is not costly. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While risk research focuses on actions that put people at risk, this paper introduces the concept of "passive risk"--risk brought on or magnified by inaction. We developed a scale measuring personal tendency for passive risk taking (PRT), validated it using a 150 undergraduate student sample, and obtained three factors indicating separate domains of passive risk taking: risk involving resources, medical risks and ethical risks. The scale has criterion validity, as it is correlated with reported passive risk taking in everyday life, and also has high test-retest reliability. While correlated with the DOSPERT scale, the PRT shows divergent validity from classic risk taking constructs like sensation seeking, and convergent validity with tendencies previously not linked to risk taking, such as procrastination and avoidance. The results indicate that passive risk is a separate and unique domain of risk taking, which merits further research to understand the cognitive and motivational mechanism perpetuating it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studying group decision-making is challenging for multiple reasons. An important logistic difficulty is studying a sufficiently large number of groups, each with multiple participants. Assembling groups online could make this process easier and also provide access to group members more representative of real-world work groups than the sample of college students that typically comprise lab Face-to-Face (FtF) groups. The main goal of this paper is to compare the decisions of online groups to those of FtF groups. We did so in a study that manipulated gain/loss framing of a risky decision between groups and examined the decisions of both individual group members and groups. All of these dependent measures are compared for an online and an FtF sample. Our results suggest that web-conferencing can be a substitute for FtF interaction in group decision-making research, as we found no moderation effects of communication medium on individual or group decision outcome variables. The effects of medium that were found suggest that the use of online groups may be the preferred method for group research. To wit, discussions among the online groups were shorter, but generated a greater number of thought units, i.e., they made more efficient use of time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The field of clinical decision making is polarized by two predominate views. One holds that treatment recommendations should conform with guidelines; the other emphasizes clinical expertise in reaching case-specific judgments. Previous work developed a test for a proposed alternative, that clinical judgment should systematically incorporate both general knowledge and patient-specific information. The test was derived from image theory's two phase-account of decision making and its "simple counting rule", which describes how possible courses of action are prescreened for compatibility with standards and values. The current paper applies this rule to clinical forecasting, where practitioners indicate how likely a specific patient will respond favorably to a recommended treatment. Psychiatric trainees evaluated eight case vignettes that exhibited from 0 to 3 incompatible attributes. They made two forecasts, one based on a guideline recommendation, the other based on their own alternative. Both forecasts were predicted by equally- and unequally-weighted counting rules. Unequal weighting provided a better fit and exhibited a clearer rejection threshold, or point at which forecasts are not diminished by additional incompatibilities. The hypothesis that missing information is treated as an incompatibility was not confirmed. There was evidence that the rejection threshold was influenced by clinician preference. Results suggests that guidelines may have a debiasing influence on clinical judgment. Subject to limitations pertaining to the subject sample and population, clinical paradigm, guideline, and study procedure, the data support the use of a compatibility test to describe how clinicians make patient-specific forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops tests of independence and stationarity in choice data collected with small samples. The method builds on the approach of Smith and Batchelder (2008). The technique is intended to distinguish cases where a person is systematically changing "true" preferences (from one group of trials to another) from cases in which a person is following a random preference mixture model with independently and identically distributed sampling in each trial. Preference reversals are counted between all pairs of repetitions. The variance of these preference reversals between all pairs of repetitions is then calculated. The distribution of this statistic is simulated by a Monte Carlo procedure in which the data are randomly permuted and the statistic is recalculated in each simulated sample. A second test computes the correlation between the mean number of preference reversals and the difference between replicates, which is also simulated by Monte Carlo. Data of Regenwetter, Dana, and Davis-Stober (2011) are reanalyzed by this method. Eight of 18 subjects showed significant deviations from the independence assumptions by one or both of these tests, which is significantly more than expected by chance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we document a violation of normative and descriptive models of decision making under risk. In contrast to uncertainty effects found by Gneezy, List and Wu (2006), some subjects in our experiments valued lotteries more than the best possible outcome. We show that the overbidding effect is more strongly related to individuals' competitiveness traits than comprehension of the lottery's payoff mechanism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Taking a falsificationist perspective, the present paper identifies two major shortcomings of existing approaches to comparative model evaluations in general and strategy classifications in particular. These are (1) failure to consider systematic error and (2) neglect of global model fit. Using adherence measures to evaluate competing models implicitly makes the unrealistic assumption that the error associated with the model predictions is entirely random. By means of simple schematic examples, we show that failure to discriminate between systematic and random error seriously undermines this approach to model evaluation. Second, approaches that treat random versus systematic error appropriately usually rely on relative model fit to infer which model or strategy most likely generated the data. However, the model comparatively yielding the best fit may still be invalid. We demonstrate that taking for granted the vital requirement that a model by itself should adequately describe the data can easily lead to flawed conclusions. Thus, prior to considering the relative discrepancy of competing models, it is necessary to assess their absolute fit and thus, again, attempt falsification. Finally, the scientific value of model fit is discussed from a broader perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this introduction to the special issue on methodology, we provide background on its original motivation and a systematic overview of the contributions. The latter are discussed with correspondence to the phase of the scientific process they (most strongly) refer to: Theory construction, design, data analysis, and cumulative development of scientific knowledge. Several contributions propose novel measurement techniques and paradigms that will allow for new insights and can thus avail researchers in JDM and beyond. Another set of contributions centers around how models can best be tested and/or compared. Especially when viewed in combination, the papers on this topic spell out vital necessities for model comparisons and provide approaches that solve noteworthy problems prior work has been faced with. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Often research in judgment and decision making requires comparison of multiple competing models. Researchers invoke global measures such as the rate of correct predictions or the sum of squared (or absolute) deviations of the various models as part of this evaluation process. Reliance on such measures hides the (often very high) level of agreement between the predictions of the various models and does not highlight properly the relative performance of the competing models in those critical cases where they make distinct predictions. To address this important problem we propose the use of pair-wise comparisons of models to produce more informative and targeted comparisons of their performance, and we illustrate this procedure with data from two recently published papers. We use Multidimensional Scaling of these comparisons to map the competing models. We also demonstrate how intransitive cycles of pair-wise model performance can signal that certain models perform better for a given subset of decision problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this paper is to measure and compare the subjective time discounting of professional athletes and non-athletes. By using a questionnaire, we found higher subjective discounting for professional athletes than for non-athletes. We also found that the professional athletes' win-orientation positively affected their present preferences. On the other hand, professional athletes' play-orientation, which reflects their attitude towards the game itself, negatively affected their present preferences. No such effects were found in non-athletes. We argue that the "win-at-all-costs" competitive approach that leads athletes to sacrifice everything in order to win may cause (or reflect) their higher preference for the present. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Goodman's paradox gives rise to a cluster of problems, problems that are in need of different answers. I will discuss some variants of the grue hypothesis applied to the technological context. One conclusion in this paper is that there is room for rational decisions, and that solutions to the paradoxes in technology can be found in the practical choice situation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the influences that congressional staff people viewed as important in shaping legislators' voting decisions on the human embryonic stem (ES) cell research bill in the 109th Congress, the first legislation vetoed by President George W. Bush. The analysis illuminates factors that impact congressional decision making on a salient issue with a strong moral component. Constituent concerns, ideology, and a desire to make good public policy all centrally affected members' choices; however, moral overtones permeated considerations relevant to the human ES cell research question. In addition, at least three influences that directly reflect or relate to members' moral claims — religious convictions, personal connections to potential beneficiaries of human ES cell research, and moral pressure from outside interests—were important also. The analysis draws on data gathered from interviews with congressional aides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By skipping managers and appealing directly to politicians, whistleblowers can play a critical role in revealing organizational information. However, the protection of whistleblowers can affect managers' abilities to provide employees with incentives to exert effort. This paper explores this tradeoff with a model of agency decision-making under incomplete information. In the game, an employee's effort determines a project's quality, and a manager chooses whether to approve the project and discipline the employee. The employee and politician wish for only "good" projects to be approved. By whistleblowing, an employee reveals the quality to a politician outside of the organization, who may override the manager's decision. A key finding is that from the politician's perspective, the benefits of whistleblower protections depend on the preferences of the manager. If the manager is inclined toward approving projects, then the costs of lower employee effort may outweigh the informational benefits of whistleblowing. The optimal policy may then be to ban whistleblowing. By contrast, when the manager is inclined toward rejecting projects, whistleblower protections prevent him or her from suppressing effort and are unambiguously beneficial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]