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Introduced in the United Kingdom in 2012, Universal Credit (UC) is a welfare benefit that replaces six working-age 'legacy' benefits for out-of-work and low-income people. Designed with the aim of simplifying benefits and incentivising paid work, UC represents a deepening of conditionality in the British welfare state. Considering these developments, this paper quantitatively investigates the effect of UC on recipients' life satisfaction. Data from the United Kingdom Household Longitudinal Study is analysed, primarily using a fixed-effects regression approach. Results reveal a significantly negative effect of UC recipience on life satisfaction. Robustness checks and alternative model specifications, including difference-in-differences and inverse probability weighting, confirm this finding. Additionally, mediation models give credence to the idea that UC also negatively affects life satisfaction indirectly by increasing psychological distress. Heterogeneity tests indicate that UC has a less negative effect on single parents' life satisfaction compared to non-parents. Meanwhile, UC has a significantly more negative effect on the life satisfaction of people not in paid work (for reasons other than unemployment) than those in paid work. Discussion focuses on the potential effect of welfare conditionality specifically, and implications for future research and policy are explored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scoring rules measure the deviation between a forecast, which assigns degrees of confidence to various events, and reality. Strictly proper scoring rules have the property that for any forecast, the mathematical expectation of the score of a forecast p by the lights of p is strictly better than the mathematical expectation of any other forecast q by the lights of p. Forecasts need not satisfy the axioms of the probability calculus, but Predd et al. [9] have shown that given a finite sample space and any strictly proper additive and continuous scoring rule, the score for any forecast that does not satisfy the axioms of probability is strictly dominated by the score for some probabilistically consistent forecast. Recently, this result has been extended to non-additive continuous scoring rules. In this paper, a condition weaker than continuity is given that suffices for the result, and the condition is proved to be optimal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Probabilistic Knowledge Sarah Moss proposes that our credences and subjective probability judgments (SPJs) can constitute knowledge. Mossean probabilistic knowledge is grounded in probabilistic beliefs that are justified, true, and unGettiered. In this paper I aim to address and solve two challenges that arise in the vicinity of the factivity condition for probabilistic knowledge: the factivity challenge and the challenge from probabilistic arguments from ignorance (probabilistic AIs). I argue that while Moss's deflationary solution to the factivity challenge formally works, it leaves us ill-equipped to handle probabilistic AIs. An account of probabilistic knowledge that cannot overcome probabilistic AIs makes knowledge of thoroughly probabilistic contents a rare and unstable phenomenon, at best, or, at worst, impossible. I hold that establishing a metaphysically enriched account of probabilistic truth is therefore mandatory. I go on to develop a truth-conditional approach on probabilistic factivity that is relativistic in its nature and centers on objective chances. I show that while the approach is still compatible with Moss's overall semantics for probabilistic knowledge, it provides us with a simple but forceful answer to probabilistic AIs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When a manipulator captures its target by a visual servo system, uncertainties can arise because of mechanical system and visual sensors exist error. This paper proposes an intelligent method to predict the successful rate for a manipulator to capture its target with motion and sensor errors. Because the mapping between the joint space of the manipulator and the Cartesian space at the end of the manipulator is nonlinear, when there is a bounded error of the manipulator's joint, the error range of the end motion is constantly changing with the different joint positions. And at the same time, the visual servo camera will also measure the target from different positions and postures, so as to produce measurement results with different error ranges. The unknown time-varying error property not only greatly affects the stability of the closed-loop control but also causes the capture failure. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the success probability of different capture trajectories by establishing the nondeterministic model of manipulator control system. First, a system model including motion subsystem and feedback subsystem was established with system error described by Gaussian probability. And then Bayesian estimation was introduced into the system model to estimate the executing state of the predefined trajectory. Linear least quadratic regulators (LQR) control is used to simulate the input correction in the closed-loop control between motion subsystem and feedback subsystem. At last, the successful probability of capturing the target is established by the Gaussian distribution at the end point of the trajectory with geometric relationship calculation between tolerance range and error distribution. The effectiveness and practicability of the proposed method are proved by simulation and experiment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This is the second of a series of two papers dealing with local limit theorems in relatively hyperbolic groups. In this second paper, we restrict our attention to non-spectrally degenerate random walks and we prove precise asymptotics of the probability $p_n(e,e)$ of going back to the origin at time $n$. We combine techniques adapted from thermodynamic formalism with the rough estimates of the Green function given by part I to show that $p_n(e,e)\sim CR^{-n}n^{-3/2}$ , where $R$ is the inverse of the spectral radius of the random walk. This both generalizes results of Woess for free products and results of Gouëzel for hyperbolic groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents some impossibility results for certain views about what you should do when you are uncertain about which moral theory is true. I show that under reasonable and extremely minimal ways of defining what a moral theory is, it follows that the concept of expected moral choiceworthiness is undefined, and more generally that any theory of decision-making under moral uncertainty must generate pathological results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses a system of difference-differential equations (DDE) that is satisfied by the time-dependent state probabilities of open Markov queueing networks with various features. The number of network states in this case and the number of equations in this system is infinite. Flows of customers arriving at the network are a simple and independent, the time of customer services is exponentially distributed. The intensities of transitions between the network states are deterministic functions depending on its states. To solve the system of DDE, we propose a modified method of successive approximations, combined with the method of series. The convergence of successive approximations with time to a stationary probability distribution, the form of which is indicated in the paper has been proved. The sequence of approximations converges to a unique solution of the system of equations. Any successive approximation can be represented as a convergent power series with an infinite radius of convergence, the coefficients of which satisfy recurrence relations, which is convenient for calculations on a computer. Examples of the analysis of Markov G-networks with various features have been presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unemployment strongly influences a person's economic resources and life chances. Especially for unemployed individuals who have to rely on means-tested benefits, episodes of unemployment often go along with substantial material restrictions. Therefore, from a policy perspective, measures or regulations that might shorten unemployment episodes and reduce overall unemployment are particularly important. In this paper, we analyse whether concessions regarding the characteristics of the job searched for influence an individual's unemployment duration. In doing so, we focus on a particular aspect of availability requirements in Germany. This is the fact that for unemployed recipients of means-tested benefits almost all types of jobs count as suitable employment and, therefore, recipients are obliged to make job-related concessions if offered a job requiring such concessions. The results indicate that there is no positive effect of making concessions regarding qualification requirements or status on employment chances. In contrast, there are positive effects of wage concessions. However, searching for a job in a different occupation (that does not necessarily imply a concession) has a comparable, positive effect on finding employment. Thus, it appears that being generally flexible regarding one's future occupation might be at least as important for employment chances as making concessions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Having grandchildren is known to reduce individuals' labour supply. However, it is unclear whether there is a negative association between grandchild care provision and employment among grandparents. Moreover, we do not know how the magnitude of any association between the two activities may vary across countries characterised by different child-care policy regimes. Using data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe, this paper investigates the association between daily grandchild care provision and two employment outcomes for grandmothers and grandfathers aged 50–69: the probability of being employed and the average weekly working hours. Recursive bivariate models are used to account for the potential selection of grandparents with different unobserved traits into work and family care. Estimates are compared across four country groups characterised by different child-care policy orientations: optional de-familisation, service de-familisation, supported familism and familism by default. On average, across 20 European countries, grandparents looking after grandchildren daily are no less likely to work than grandparents who do not; however, employed grandfathers work eight hours less per week if providing daily child care. Evidence of a negative association between daily grandchild care and employment is strongest in countries with familistic approaches to child care, with no association in countries characterised by optional de-familisation. This suggests that public support to child care may help retain grandparents in the labour force. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Peter van Inwagen (2001) has given a probabilistic answer to the fundamental question 'why is there something rather than nothing?': There is something, because the probability of there being nothing is 0. Some philosophers have recently examined van Inwagen's argument and concluded that it does not really work. Three points are central in their criticism: (i) the premise which states that there is only one empty possible world is false, (ii) the premise which states that all possible worlds have the same probability is not plausible and (iii) the argument is not significant for the question it sets out to answer. In this paper, I shall show that (i) even if there are many empty worlds, this does not necessarily invalidate the argument in its general lines, (ii) the examples they offer to support the intuition that possible worlds may have different probabilities fail, and (iii) even if the conclusion of the argument does not really answer the question van Inwagen sets out to answer, it is still not an insignificant response to the question. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to the JUSTIFIED FAIR COINS principle, if I know that a coin is fair, and I lack justification for believing that it won’t be flipped, then I lack justification for believing that it won’t land tails. What this principle says, in effect, is that the only way to have justification for believing that a fair coin won’t land tails, is by having justification for believing that it won’t be flipped at all. Although this seems a plausible and innocuous principle, in a recent paper Dorr, Goodman and Hawthorne use it in devising an intriguing puzzle which places all justified beliefs about the future in jeopardy. They point out, further, that one very widespread theory of justification predicts that JUSTIFIED FAIR COINS is false, giving us additional reason to reject it. In this paper, I will attempt to turn this dialectic around. I will argue that JUSTIFIED FAIR COINS does not inevitably lead to scepticism about the future, and the fact that it is incompatible with a widespread theory of justification may give us reason to doubt the theory. I will outline an alternative theory of justification that predicts both that JUSTIFIED FAIR COINS is true and that we have justification for believing much about the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The algebraic properties of the combination of probabilistic choice and nondeterministic choice have long been a research topic in program semantics. This paper explains a formalization in the Coq proof assistant of a monad equipped with both choices: the geometrically convex monad. This formalization has an immediate application: it provides a model for a monad that implements a nontrivial interface, which allows for proofs by equational reasoning using probabilistic and nondeterministic effects. We explain the technical choices we made to go from the literature to a complete Coq formalization, from which we identify reusable theories about mathematical structures such as convex spaces and concrete categories, and that we integrate in a framework for monadic equational reasoning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We introduce the special issue on "Learning, Optimization, and the Theory of G-Networks" of the journal Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences that appears in 2019. We first outline some of the applications and developments of G-Networks which motivate the ongoing interest for this area, including some areas which could not be covered in this special issue. We then briefly discuss the contributions presented in the ten papers that are published in this special issue in the context of related work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Redundant or excessive information can sometimes lead people to lean on it unnecessarily. Certain experimental designs can sometimes bias results in the researcher's favor. And, sometimes, interesting effects are too small to be studied, practically, or are simply zero. We believe a confluence of these factors led to a recent paper (Isaac & Brough, 2014, JCR). This initial paper proposed a new means by which probability judgments can be led astray: the category size bias, by which an individual event coming from a large category is judged more likely to occur than an event coming from a small one. Our work shows that this effect may be due to instructional and mechanical confounds, rather than interesting psychology. We present eleven studies with over ten times the sample size of the original in support of our conclusion: We replicate three of the five original studies and reduce or eliminate the effect by resolving these methodological issues, even significantly reversing the bias in one case (Study 6). Studies 7-8c suggest the remaining two studies are false positives. We conclude with a discussion of the subtleties of instruction wording, the difficulties of correcting the record, and the importance of replication and open science. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, various pro-natalist policies have been adopted in Singapore and other high-income Asian countries with low fertility, aiming at raising fertility rates. Previous studies were mainly focused on the impact or outcome of the policies. This paper, however, aims to identify the most influential groups in determining Singapore's total fertility rate (TFR) and evaluate the targeting of pro-natalist measures adopted by the government. We first reveal the changing age-parity-and-marital-status composition of women at childbearing age, and further conduct an elasticity analysis to assess the roles of different subgroups of women in changing the TFR. Our results show that compared to other groups, the 20–29-year-old single women and the married childless women aged 30–34 (‘married’ throughout this paper includes women who are or have been married) are more influential in determining the TFR and should be the potential pro-natalist target groups. However, Singapore's pro-natalist policies are more in favour of third and higher-order births. Such mismatch indicates that, if more efforts are devoted to facilitating marriage and first births in these potential groups, the TFR may be increased effectively. In order to achieve a long-term and significant fertility reversal, it calls for a long-term and integrated policy package. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This article builds on a recent paper coauthored by the present author, H. Hosni and F. Montagna. It is meant to contribute to the logical foundations of probability theory on many-valued events and, specifically, to a deeper understanding of the notion of strict coherence. In particular, we will make use of geometrical, measure-theoretical and logical methods to provide three characterizations of strict coherence on formulas of infinite-valued Łukasiewicz logic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explains and defends a belief-first view of the relationship between belief and credence. On this view, credences are a species of beliefs, and the degree of credence is determined by the content of what is believed. We begin by developing what we take to be the most plausible belief-first view. Then, we offer several arguments for it. Finally, we show how it can resist objections that have been raised to belief-first views. We conclude that the belief-first view is more plausible than many have previously supposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For rare blood groups the recruitment of donor relatives, for example siblings, is expected to be effective, since the probability of a similar rare blood group is likely. However, the likelihood differs between blood groups and is not commonly available. This paper provides a unified mathematical formulation to calculate such likelihoods. From a mathematical and probabilistic point of view, it is shown that these likelihoods can be obtained from the computation of a stationary genotype distribution. This, in turn, can be brought down to a system of quadratic stochastic operators. A generic mathematical approach is presented which directly leads to a stationary genotype distribution for arbitrary blood groups. The approach enables an exact computation for the effectiveness of recruiting next of kin for blood donorship. Next to an illustration of computations for 'standard' ABO and Rhesus-D blood groups, it is particularly illustrated for the extended Rhesus blood group system. Also other applications requiring next of kin blood group associations can be solved directly by using the unified mathematical formulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Navigation methods, traditional and modern, use lines of position in the plane. Standard Gaussian assumptions about errors leads to a constant sum of squared distances from the lines defining a probability contour. It is well known these contours are a family of ellipses centred on the most probable position and they can be computed using algebraic methods. In this paper we show how the most probable position, the axes and foci of ellipses can be found using geometric methods. This results in a ruler and compasses construction of these points and this gives insight into the way the shape and orientation of the probability contours depend on the angles between the lines of position. We start with the classical case of three lines of position with equal variances, we show how this can be extended to the case where the variances in the errors in the lines of position differ, and we go on to consider the case of four lines of position using a methodology that generalises to an arbitrary number of lines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Strait of Istanbul is one of the world's busiest, narrowest and most winding waterways. As such, there is a high grounding probability for vessels. Although a number of grounding probability models exist, they have been deemed unsuitable by local maritime experts, due to their insufficient stopping distance criteria for narrow waterways. Thus, there is a need for a new model. This paper proposes a two-component grounding probability model that multiplies the geometric grounding probability (calculated with a kinematic-based model) with the causation probability (calculated with a specially designed Bayesian network). The geometric probability model is improved in terms of stopping distance parameters and the Bayesian network is crafted for narrow waterways. The model is then deployed with pre-determined parameters within the Strait of Istanbul to run risk analysis scenarios. The results, validated with actual grounding records, show that the causation probability is the key component for quantifying the probability of grounding in narrow waterways. If navigated without frequent evasive manoeuvres, grounding would be almost inevitable. Although this study focuses on the Strait of Istanbul, the proposed approach can be applied to research into grounding probability of vessels navigating through other waterways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seed lot heterogeneity is often evaluated through the range between germination percentages of four seed samples, considering normal and binomial approximations for calculating the tolerated range (S). In this paper, an exact test for the germination count range (R) is derived based on the hypergeometric and the binomial probability model for germination count. Through Monte Carlo simulations, the empirical distribution of R is built to evaluate the quantiles of the exact distributions. Moreover, a power analysis is performed by simulation. Sample size and germination rate effects are evaluated. In lots with a high germination rate, the proposed test based on the hypergeometric model is about 20% more powerful than the test based on the S-value. A table containing the critical values is presented and recommended to be used in off-range heterogeneity testing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we discuss new bounds and approximations for tail probabilities of certain discrete distributions. Several different methods are used to obtain bounds and/or approximations. Excellent upper and lower bounds are obtained for the Poisson distribution. Excellent approximations (and not bounds necessarily) are also obtained for other discrete distributions. Numerical comparisons made to previously proposed methods demonstrate that the new bounds and/or approximations compare very favorably. Some conjectures are made. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In modelling joint probability distributions it is often desirable to incorporate standard marginal distributions and match a set of key observed mixed moments. At the same time it may also be prudent to avoid additional unwarranted assumptions. The problem is to find the least ordered distribution that respects the prescribed constraints. In this paper we will construct a suitable joint probability distribution by finding the checkerboard copula of maximum entropy that allows us to incorporate the appropriate marginal distributions and match the nominated set of observed moments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we study the probability distribution of the word map $w(x_{1},x_{2},\ldots ,x_{k})=x_{1}^{n_{1}}x_{2}^{n_{2}}\cdots x_{k}^{n_{k}}$ in a compact Lie group. We show that the probability distribution can be represented as an infinite series. Moreover, in the case of the Lie group $\text{SU}(2)$ , our computations give a nice convergent series for the probability distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2015, Guglielmi and Badia discussed optimal strategies in a particular type of service system with two strategic servers. In their setup, each server can be either active or inactive and an active server can be requested to transmit a sequence of packets. The servers have varying probabilities of successfully transmitting when they are active, and both servers receive a unit reward if the sequence of packets is transmitted successfully. Guglielmi and Badia provided an analysis of optimal strategies in four scenarios: where each server does not know the other's successful transmission probability; one of the two servers is always inactive; each server knows the other's successful transmission probability and they are willing to cooperate. Unfortunately, the analysis by Guglielmi and Badia contained some errors. In this paper we correct these errors. We discuss three cases where both servers (I) communicate and cooperate; (II) neither communicate nor cooperate; (III) communicate but do not cooperate. In particular, we obtain the unique Nash equilibrium strategy in Case II through a Bayesian game formulation, and demonstrate that there is a region in the parameter space where there are multiple Nash equilibria in Case III. We also quantify the value of communication or cooperation by comparing the social welfare in the three cases, and propose possible regulations to make the Nash equilibrium strategy the socially optimal strategy for both Cases II and III. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper argues that there is an important connection between Inference to the Best Explanation and Bayesianism, in the medical context of the interplay between mechanisms and population studies. It is argued that the criteria for evaluating mechanistic evidence can be used in Inference to the Best Explanation and such use thereby increases the resilience of probabilities in a Bayesian framework. This point grows out of the emerging literature on evidence-based medicine and naturally strengthens McCain and Poston's proposal that explanatory information is evidentially relevant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the possibility that life-long learning promotes intergenerational class mobility. The following two research questions are asked. Is it the case that further education provides individuals coming from less advantaged origins with a second chance to improve on their educational attainment? Is it the case that the returns to further qualifications, in terms of chances of upward class career mobility, are greater for children from less advantaged backgrounds than for children from more advantaged backgrounds? The analyses – that are based on the complete educational and class histories of men and women in a British birth cohort – mainly produce negative findings. Children coming from managerial and professional backgrounds seem to benefit most from further education. More specifically, further education appears to be an effective means of career advancement for individuals of managerial and professional origins who start out in their working lives in relatively low-level class positions. Via further education they can increase or update their qualifications, and in turn enhance their chances of being counter-mobile back to their class of origin. Overall, based on the findings of this paper, we can conclude that qualifications attained through life-long learning primarily serve to maintain, rather than to narrow, inequalities attached to social origins in Britain. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

In this paper, the spacecraft close-range safe proximity problem is investigated. In the presence of a "chief" spacecraft, a Multi-Equal-Collision-Probability-Curve (MECPC) method is developed. The influence of the chief spacecraft with a convex polygon shape is considered and the chief spacecraft is divided into several small components. Each component generates a corresponding separate repulsive force and the superposition of these forces is regarded as the ultimate avoidance force. As a result, the proposed MECPC method not only improves the system robustness against control and navigation uncertainties but is also analytically validated in collision avoidance. The MECPC method solves the safe proximity problem in the presence of a convex polygon shape. In addition, an Improved Linear Quadratic Regulator (ILQR) is designed to track the expected trajectory. Numerical simulations are performed in a close-range operation environment to verify the effectiveness of the proposed MECPC method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we extend the framework of Klein [15] [ Journal of Banking & Finance 20: 1211–1229] to a general model under the double exponential jump model with stochastic volatility on the underlying asset and the assets of the counterparty. Firstly, we derive the closed-form characteristic functions for this dynamic. Using the Fourier-cosine expansion technique, we get numerical solutions for vulnerable European put options based on the characteristic functions. The inverse fast Fourier transform method provides a fast numerical algorithm for the twice-exercisable vulnerable Bermuda put options. By virtue of the modified Geske and Johnson method, we obtain an approximate pricing formula of vulnerable American put options. Numerical simulations are made for investigating the impact of stochastic volatility on vulnerable options. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the results of a study that sheds new light on the shape of indifference curves in the Marschak-Machina triangle. The most important observation, obtained non-parametrically, concerns jumps in indifference curves at the triangle legs towards the triangle origin. These jumps, however, do not appear at the hypotenuse. The pattern observed suggests discontinuity in lottery valuation when the range of lottery outcomes changes and is best explained by decision-making models based on the psychological phenomenon of range dependence (Parducci, 1965; Cohen, 1992; Kontek & Lewandowski, 2018). Models founded on other psychological phenomena, e.g., discontinuity in decision weights (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979), cumulative probability weighting (Tversky & Kahneman, 1992), attention shifting (Birnbaum, 2008), overweighting of salient payoffs (Bordallo, Gennaioli & Shefrin, 2012), and treating stated probabilities as imperfect information (Viscusi, 1989), predict indifference curve shapes that differ from the one obtained in this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we give the definition of tree-indexed Markov chains in random environment with countable state space, and then study the realization of Markov chain indexed by a tree in random environment. Finally, we prove the strong law of large numbers and Shannon–McMillan theorem for Markov chains indexed by a Cayley tree in a Markovian environment with countable state space. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Log-concave random variables and their various properties play an increasingly important role in probability, statistics, and other fields. For a distribution F , denote by 𝒟 F the set of distributions G such that the convolution of F and G has a log-concave probability mass function or probability density function. In this paper, we investigate sufficient and necessary conditions under which 𝒟 F ⊆ 𝒟 G , where F and G belong to a parametric family of distributions. Both discrete and continuous settings are considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces a special collection of research contributions written to honour Professor Erol Gelenbe of his 70th birthday which was celebrated on September 20-25, 2015 at Imperial College in London where he holds the Dennis Gabor Professorship and is Head of the Intelligent Systems and Networks Group in the Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering (see http://san.ee.ic.ac.uk/Gelenbe2015). All but three of the fourteen papers presented here were written by his students and descendants. These papers are centered on probability models related to computer systems and networks, an area where Erol plays a pioneering role in which he remains very active with many innovations and new directions that he has introduced in the last ten or twelve years. We first briefly review Erol's work in these areas, and then discuss each of the contributions that appear here together with their links to Erol's own published research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective:This paper presents our 10 years’ experience with Felix tympanoplasty. This surgical procedure is designed to repair large perforations of unhealthy tympanic membranes, providing good graft stability without blunting of the anterior tympanomeatal angle.Methods:From January 2001 to December 2011, 64 Felix tympanoplasties were performed, conducted as the only surgical procedure. This paper describes the surgical technique and analyses the functional results.Results:Graft take was achieved in 61 ears (95.31 per cent). There was air–bone gap improvement in 84.6 per cent of cases.Conclusion:Felix tympanoplasty was effective in repairing unhealthy tympanic membranes with large perforations; the avoidance of blunting at the anterior tympanomeatal angle achieved good functional results. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background. Despite the extensive literature assessing associations between religiosity/spirituality and health, few studies have investigated the clinical applicability of this evidence. The purpose of this paper was to assess the impact of religious/spiritual interventions (RSI) through randomized clinical trials (RCTs). Method. A systematic review was performed in the following databases: PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, PsycINFO, Cochrane Collaboration, Embase and SciELO. Through the use of a Boolean expression, articles were included if they: (i) investigated mental health outcomes; (ii) had a design consistent with RCTs. We excluded protocols involving intercessory prayer or distance healing. The study was conducted in two phases by reading: (1) title and abstracts; (2) full papers and assessing their methodological quality. Then, a meta-analysis was carried out. Results. Through this method, 4751 papers were obtained, of which 23 remained included. The meta-analysis showed significant effects of RSI on anxiety general symptoms (p < 0.001) and in subgroups: meditation (p < 0.001); psychotherapy (p = 0.02); 1 month of follow-up (p < 0.001); and comparison groups with interventions (p < 0.001). Two significant differences were found in depressive symptoms: between 1 and 6 months and comparison groups with interventions (p = 0.05). In general, studies have shown that RSI decreased stress, alcoholism and depression. Conclusions. RCTs on RSI showed additional benefits including reduction of clinical symptoms (mainly anxiety). The diversity of protocols and outcomes associated with a lack of standardization of interventions point to the need for further studies evaluating the use of religiosity/spirituality as a complementary treatment in health care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new Bayesian approach for multiple satellite faults detection and exclusion is proposed by introducing a classification variable to each satellite observation. If we treat this classification variable as random and assume a prior distribution for it, then a rule for satellite fault detection and exclusion based on the posterior probabilities of the classification variables is constructed under the framework of Bayesian hypothesis testing. Secondly, the Gibbs sampler is introduced to compute the posterior probabilities of the classification variables. Then the implementation for a Bayesian Receiver Autonomous Integrity Monitoring (RAIM) algorithm is designed with the Gibbs sampler. Finally, different schemes are designed to evaluate the performance of the new Bayesian RAIM algorithm in the case of multiple faults. We compare the method in this paper with the Range Consensus (RANCO) method. Experiments illustrate that the proposed algorithm in this paper is capable of detecting and eliminating multiple satellite faults, and the probability of correctly detecting faults is high. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we continue our investigation of the shape of the failure rate of a mixture of two densities. In our recent paper, Block, Langberg and Savits [2], we introduced a variation of Glaser's method in which we emphasized the role of the mixing parameter q. There we determined all possible shapes of the failure rate function for a mixture of one exponential and one gamma density. Here we classify all possible shapes for a mixture of two gamma densities having shape parameters b, c>0 and scale parameters λ, μ>0. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper presents the use of data clustering methods applied to the analysis results of a design-stage, functional failure reasoning tool. A system simulation using qualitative descriptions of component behaviors and a functional reasoning tool are used to identify the functional impact of a large set of potential single and multiple fault scenarios. The impact of each scenario is collected as the set of categorical function “health” states for each component-level function in the system. This data represents the space of potential system states. The clustering and statistical tools presented in this paper are used to identify patterns in this system state space. These patterns reflect the underlying emergent failure behavior of the system. Specifically, two data analysis tools are presented and compared. First, a modified k-means clustering algorithm is used with a distance metric of functional effect similarity. Second, a statistical approach known as latent class analysis is used to find an underlying probability model of potential system failure states. These tools are used to reason about how the system responds to complex fault scenarios and assists in identifying potential design changes for fault mitigation. As computational power increases, the ability to reason with large sets of data becomes as critical as the analysis methods used to collect that data. The goal of this work is to provide complex system designers with a means of using early design simulation data to identify and mitigate potential emergent failure behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper explored how frames influence people's evaluation of others' probabilistic predictions in light of the outcomes of binary events. Most probabilistic predictions (e.g., "there is a 75% chance that Denver will win the Super Bowl") can be partitioned into two components: A qualitative component that describes the predicted outcome ("Denver will win the Super Bowl"), and a quantitative component that represents the chance of the outcome occurring ("75% chance"). Various logically equivalent variations of a single prediction can be created through different combinations of these components and their logical or numerical complements (e.g., "25% chance that Denver will lose the Super Bowl", "75% chance that Seattle will lose the Super Bowl"). Based on the outcome of the predicted event, these logically equivalent predictions can be categorized into two classes: Congruently framed predictions, in which the qualitative component matches the outcome, and incongruently framed predictions, in which it does not. Although the two classes of predictions are logically equivalent, we hypothesize that people would judge congruently framed predictions to be more accurate. The paper tested this hypothesis in seven experiments and found supporting evidence across a number of domains and experimental manipulations, and even when the congruently framed prediction was logically inferior. It also found that this effect held even for subjects who saw both congruently framed and incongruently framed versions of a prediction and judged the two to be logically equivalent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper scrutinizes the relationship between inconsistency and incoherence with a special focus on probabilistic measures of coherence. As is shown, while the majority of extant coherence measures face problems regarding the assessment of inconsistent sets of propositions, it is possible to adapt the measures in order to improve their performance. Furthermore, different intuitions regarding the degree of incoherence of inconsistent sets of propositions are surveyed and assessed with respect to extant measures. In this context, a refined approach to measuring coherence is introduced. As is argued, by means of this approach one can account for the diverging coherence intuitions regarding inconsistent sets independently of the discussion on the adequacy of different probabilistic explications of coherence. The last part of the paper is devoted to the question of whether there is a covariation between degrees of inconsistency and degrees of incoherence in the sense that the higher the degree of inconsistency of a set of propositions, the higher its degree of incoherence. Focusing on two straightforward measures of the degree of inconsistency, this latter question is answered in the negative. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Stastny and Lehner (2018) compared the accuracy of forecasts in an intelligence community predictionmarket to comparable forecasts in analysis reports prepared by groups of professional intelligence analysts. To obtain quantitative probabilities from the analysis reports experienced analysts were asked to read the reports and state what probability they thought the reports implied for each forecast question. These were called imputed probabilities. Stastny and Lehner found that the prediction market was more accurate than the imputed probabilities and concluded that this was evidence that the prediction market was more accurate than the analysis reports. In a commentary, Mandel (2019) took exception to this interpretation. In a re-analysis of the data, Mandel found a very strong correlation between readers' personal and imputed probabilities. From this Mandel builds a case that the imputed probabilities are little more than a reflection of the readers' personal views; that they do not fairly reflect the contents of the analysis reports; and therefore, any accuracy results are spurious. This paper argues two points. First, the high correlation between imputed and personal probabilities was not evidence of substantial imputation bias. Rather it was the natural by-product of the fact that the imputed and personal probabilities were both forecasts of the same events. An additional analysis shows a much lower level of imputation bias that is consistent with the original results and interpretation. Second, the focus of Stastny and Lehner (2018) was on the reports as understood by readers. In this context, even if there was substantial imputation bias it would not invalidate accuracy results; it would instead provide a possible causal explanation of those results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent years have seen a large increase in the popularity of Texas hold ’em poker. It is now the most commonly played variant of the game, both in casinos and through online platforms. In this paper, we present a simulation study for games of Texas hold ’em with between two and 23 players. From these simulations, we estimate the probabilities of each player having been dealt the winning hand. These probabilities are calculated conditional on both partial information (that is, the player only having knowledge of his/her cards) and also on fuller information (that is, the true probabilities of each player winning given knowledge of the cards dealt to each player). Where possible, our estimates are compared to exact analytic results and are shown to have converged to three significant figures. With these results, we assess the poker strategies described in two recent pieces of popular culture. In comparing the ideas expressed in Taylor Swift’s song, New Romantics , and the betting patterns employed by James Bond in the 2006 film, Casino Royale , we conclude that Ms Swift demonstrates a greater understanding of the true probabilities of winning a game of Texas hold ’em poker. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we investigate executive stock options with endogenous departure and time-varying variances. We use a “Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity” process to capture the variance process of the log stock price. In addition, we take into consideration the departure risk of the executive and assume that the probability of remaining employed has a power form of stock price ratios. After deriving the closed-form pricing formulae of executive stock options, we illustrate the effects of the departure risk on the values of executive stock options. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper summarizes an empirical comparison of the accuracy of forecasts included in analysis reports developed by professional intelligence analysts to comparable forecasts in a prediction market that has broad participation from across an intelligence community. To compare forecast accuracy, 99 event forecasts were extracted from qualitative descriptions found in 41 analysis reports and posted on the prediction market. Quantitative probabilities were imputed from the qualitative forecasts by asking seasoned professional analysts, who did not participate in the prediction market, to read the reports and to infer a quantitative probability based on what was written. These readers were also asked to provide their personal probabilities before and after reading the reports. There were two statistically significant results of particular interest. First, the primary result is that the prediction market forecasts were more accurate than the analysis reports. On average prediction market probabilities were 0.114 closer to ground truth than the analysis report probabilities. Second, in cases where analysts (readers) updated their personal probabilities in a direction opposite to what the reports implied, analysts tended to update their probabilities in the correct direction. This occurred even though, on average, reading the reports did not make readers more accurate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brier score decompositions, including those attributed to Murphy and to Yates, provide popular metrics for estimating forecast performance attributes like calibration and discrimination. However, the decompositions are generally limited to situations where forecasters make successive forecast judgments against the same class of substantive event (e.g., rain vs. no rain). They do not readily translate to common situations where: forecasts are weighted unequally; forecasts can be made against a range of heterogeneous topics and events over varying time horizons; forecasts can be updated over time until an event occurs or an event deadline is reached; or outcome alternatives can vary in number and nature (e.g., ordered vs. unordered outcomes) across forecast questions. In this paper, we propose extensions of the Murphy and Yates decompositions to address these features. The extensions involve new analytic expressions for the decompositions of weighted Brier scores, along with proposed resampling methods. We use data from a recent forecasting tournament to illustrate the methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a unilevel and multilevel approach for the analysis and meta-analysis of single-case experiments (SCEs). We propose a definition of SCEs and derive the specific features of SCEs’ data that have to be taken into account when analysing and meta-analysing SCEs. We discuss multilevel models of increasing complexity and propose alternative and complementary techniques based on probability combining and randomisation test wrapping. The proposed techniques are demonstrated with real-life data and corresponding R code. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper contributes by presenting a parameter identification procedure for n-degrees-of-freedom flexible joint robot manipulators. An advantage of the given procedure is the obtaining of robot parameters in a single experiment. Guidelines are provided for the computing of the joint position filtering and velocity estimation. The method relies in the filtered robot model, for which no acceleration measurements are required. The filtered model is expressed in regressor form, which allows applying a parameter identification procedure based on the least squares algorithm. In order to assess the performance of the proposed parameter identification scheme, an implementation of a least squares with forgetting factor (LSFF) parameter identification method is carried out. In order to assess the reliability of the tested identification schemes, a model-based trajectory tracking controller has been implemented twice in different conditions: one control experiment using the estimated parameters provided by the proposed scheme, and another experiment using the parameters given by the LSFF method. These real-time control experiments are compared with respect to numerical simulations using the estimated parameters for each identification method. For the proposed scheme, the comparison between experiments and numerical simulations indicates better accuracy in the torque and position prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic conditions have dramatic influences on fertility. This paper evaluates the effect of the 2008 ‘Great Recession’ in the UK on first birth rate, which is the fertility behaviour most susceptible to external economic conditions. The key aim of the study was to assess the effect of the recession on fertility by individual-level characteristics, enabling variation in responses to economic hardship to be observed. Data were from the nationally representative UK Household Longitudinal Study (UK-HLS). Cumulative transition models were used to model the probability of first birth for women between the ages of 17 and 30 in three UK birth cohorts. The effect of the recession was captured using direct measures (local unemployment rates and individual unemployment status) and a pre-/post-comparison, capturing indirect effects. In general, higher birth rates were observed among more disadvantaged women compared with advantaged groups. The effect of the recession was disaggregated by social strata; the overall effect was counter-cyclical although at a slower rate among disadvantaged women. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

In this paper, a safe map building and area search algorithm for a mobile robot in a closed unknown environment with obstacles is presented. A range finder sensor is used to detect the environment. The objective is to perform a complete search of the environment and build a complete map of it while avoiding collision with the obstacles. The developed robot navigation algorithm is randomized. It is proved that with probability 1 the robot completes its task in a finite time. Computer simulations and experiments with a real Pioneer-3DX robot confirm the performance of the proposed method. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The numerical solution of large-scale PDEs, such as those occurring in data-driven applications, unavoidably require powerful parallel computers and tailored parallel algorithms to make the best possible use of them. In fact, considerations about the parallelization and scalability of realistic problems are often critical enough to warrant acknowledgement in the modelling phase. The purpose of this paper is to spread awareness of the Probabilistic Domain Decomposition (PDD) method, a fresh approach to the parallelization of PDEs with excellent scalability properties. The idea exploits the stochastic representation of the PDE and its approximation via Monte Carlo in combination with deterministic high-performance PDE solvers. We describe the ingredients of PDD and its applicability in the scope of data science. In particular, we highlight recent advances in stochastic representations for non-linear PDEs using branching diffusions, which have significantly broadened the scope of PDD. We envision this work as a dictionary giving large-scale PDE practitioners references on the very latest algorithms and techniques of a non-standard, yet highly parallelizable, methodology at the interface of deterministic and probabilistic numerical methods. We close this work with an invitation to the fully non-linear case and open research questions. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]